Humans use cognitive compression in everyday life to navigate their environment efficiently, similar to data compression in computing. Operating on low-resolution rendering due to limited bandwidth (bounded rationality), the individual’s mind employs default algorithms and cached scripts, often influenced by implicit biases formed through socialization. Socialization as Irvin Child explains it, is the “process by which an individual, born with behavioral potentialities of enormously wide range, is led to develop actual behavior which is confined…” These biases act as preloaded filters, shaping perception and decisions. However, the high-resolution mode of an individual can activate in response to stimuli like novelty, emotional intensity, or social interaction, allowing their biases to be reformatted or erased through new experiences, regardless of intentionality.
The brain cannot fully process every detail due to limited cognitive resources, often referred to as bounded rationality. It uses low-resolution models to simplify situations, much like compressing data for quick access. For example, when entering a crowded room, the mind rapidly identifies key elements (e.g., familiar faces) without delving into all possible details. This approach conserves mental resources while facilitating efficient social interactions.
In low-resolution mode, the mind employs heuristics—simple rules of thumb to make decisions quickly. For instance, the “representativeness heuristic” may lead someone to categorize a new acquaintance based on observable traits like dress or speech. Similarly, cached scripts (or “recipe knowledge”) are automatic routines for familiar tasks. An experienced driver, for example, uses stored routines to maneuver through traffic without consciously thinking about each step.
Implicit biases are the automatic, unconscious mental filters that individuals develop through socialization, experiences, and cultural influences. They act as preloaded cognitive filters, simplifying interactions by guiding perception and decision-making. However, these biases influence how we react to various stimuli and symbols in everyday life, often shaping our judgments and behavior without conscious awareness. For instance, implicit biases can affect how we perceive people based on their gender, race, age, or even non-social symbols like certain colors or objects associated with particular meanings.
While these biases are deeply ingrained, they are not fixed and have the potential to be reformatted or even erased through new experiences and conscious reflection. This adaptability ranges on a spectrum, from biases being confirmed and rooted more deeply to being pulled up by the roots and fully eliminated:
Implicit biases profoundly influence how we react to stimuli and symbols in everyday life. They shape our immediate responses, whether it’s feeling uncomfortable in certain social situations, making quick judgments about strangers, or interpreting symbols in a particular way. For instance, a bias toward associating certain clothing styles with specific social behaviors can affect how one perceives and interacts with people dressed in that manner.
These automatic reactions often operate in the low-resolution mode, using heuristics to make rapid judgments without a detailed analysis of the situation. As a result, they can influence our actions and interactions in subtle but significant ways, from whom we approach in a social setting to how we interpret symbols and language in our environment.
Suppressing the outward expression of implicit biases is cognitively demanding. It requires engaging the brain’s high-resolution processing mode to override the automatic, low-resolution responses triggered by these biases. For example, in a workplace setting, an individual might be aware of a bias they hold and actively work to prevent it from influencing their behavior during interactions with colleagues. This effort requires conscious attention, self-monitoring, and the use of mental resources to ensure their responses are aligned with more inclusive values, making social interactions more mentally taxing.
Over time, this deliberate suppression and self-regulation can contribute to the reformatting or even erasure of biases, as the brain gradually reconditions itself through practice and exposure to new, bias-challenging experiences. However, until biases are fully restructured or removed, the act of suppressing them remains a high-effort cognitive process that underscores the complexity of human perception and adaptation.
Implicit biases are dynamic filters that can shape how we interpret and react to our surroundings. While they can become deeply entrenched when confirmed by experiences, they are not immutable. Through exposure to counter-evidence, self-reflection, and cognitive engagement, biases can be restructured, diminished, or even entirely eradicated, illustrating the mind’s adaptability in navigating complex social and environmental landscapes.
While low-resolution processing is the default, the mind can switch to high-resolution mode when certain stimuli are present. These stimuli are often linked to how much an individual values the perceptions, opinions, and thoughts of others who may be observing their performance. For example, during a job interview, if an individual highly values the interviewer’s opinion, they will engage in high-resolution thinking. This means paying close attention to their body language, tone of voice, and the interviewer’s subtle reactions, and adjusting their responses to align with perceived expectations. This response occurs because the individual sees the social evaluation as crucial, prompting a more detailed and nuanced approach to the situation.
Some individuals possess the ability to manually switch to high-resolution mode, indicating a higher level of agency and social awareness. This ability is linked to the activity in the brain regions responsible for self-awareness and situational processing. For instance, a person with heightened social awareness might intentionally engage in high-resolution thinking during a tense conversation to better understand the nuances of others’ emotions. This conscious activation allows them to process more information and adjust their behavior appropriately, demonstrating a flexible approach to navigating complex social environments.
Reflexive resolution is the process by which individuals consciously engage in self-reflection to reinterpret or reevaluate their understanding of a situation, social interaction, or environment. It acknowledges that cognition operates in layers, each receiving different levels of resolution depending on the context and the individual’s focus.
At the core is the immediate layer, consisting of the person, people, or objects directly in front of the individual. This layer typically receives the most high-resolution processing when the individual is focused on it, allowing for a detailed and nuanced understanding of the immediate environment. For example, during a conversation, an individual may process the other person’s facial expressions, body language, and tone in high resolution.
Beyond this, there are additional situational layers that extend outward, representing aspects of the environment that may not be the current focus. The further out these layers go, the lower their resolution becomes as the individual’s attention diminishes. For instance, while focusing on a conversation in a busy café, the surrounding noise, other patrons, and even background music exist in lower-resolution layers, processed just enough to register but not analyzed in detail.
This processing continues to more distant layers, such as the building, the neighborhood, the city, and so forth, eventually extending to layers the individual is not actively perceiving, such as the universe. These far-off layers are essentially out of focus, operating almost entirely in low-resolution mode unless something significant within them demands attention or triggers a switch to high-resolution processing.
Resolution, in the context of cognition and perception, refers to the level of detail or clarity with which an individual processes information. High-resolution processing involves a detailed and nuanced understanding of complex stimuli, while low-resolution processing simplifies and abstracts information, allowing for quick decision-making with less mental effort. This concept applies not only to social cues but also to various environmental factors and even natural elements, similar to how a computer adjusts the clarity of an image or data set depending on the task’s demands.
In reflexive resolution, individuals become aware of these varying layers and can consciously choose to shift focus between them, adapting the resolution as needed based on the importance of the situation. For example, during an emotionally charged argument, the immediate layer (the person in front of them) may be processed at high resolution. Meanwhile, other situational layers, like the room’s surroundings or background noise, remain in low resolution, processed minimally or not at all, unless something significant occurs that demands a cognitive shift. This adaptability enables individuals to navigate complex social and environmental landscapes more effectively.
The Adaptive Resolution Theory (ART) describes how humans typically operate on cognitive auto-pilot (low-resolution mode) due to cognitive limitations, employing heuristics, cached scripts, and implicit biases for efficient processing. However, through cognitive compression, the mind can activate high-resolution mode in response to stimuli like novelty, emotional intensity, or social interactions, allowing for a more detailed analysis and the potential reformulation of biases. Additionally, some individuals exhibit the agency to manually trigger high-resolution processing, particularly in socially complex situations, illustrating a higher level of awareness and flexibility in their interactions.
The concept of reflexive resolution introduces the idea of different layers of processing that receive varying levels of resolution, adapting as needed based on the situation’s importance. This layered model explains how individuals can shift their cognitive focus, adjusting the “resolution” of their perception in real-time, from immediate details to more distant environmental factors. For example, while focusing on a conversation, other situational layers, such as background noise, remain in lower resolution, but significant changes in those layers can prompt a cognitive shift to high-resolution processing.
ART’s unique contributions to the social sciences are multifaceted:
Overall, Adaptive Resolution Theory provides a new, comprehensive perspective on human perception, cognition, and social interaction. By integrating cognitive mechanisms with social dynamics and introducing the flexibility of layered processing, ART offers a framework for understanding how individuals navigate both routine and complex environments, adapt their biases, and exercise agency in their interactions. This dynamic interplay between low and high-resolution modes highlights the intricate ways in which humans can engage, learn, and evolve within their social and environmental landscapes.
]]>By following these steps, Slidell can capitalize on its strategic location, improve quality of life for residents, and create a vibrant economy that supports both local businesses and large corporations. The actions proposed are practical, starting with the simplest initiatives that can be implemented quickly, and progressing to more complex, long-term strategies. Together, these efforts will drive sustainable growth, making Slidell a leading destination for business in Louisiana.
By focusing on these key areas and implementing a strategic marketing plan, Slidell can effectively leverage its location and attract businesses that will contribute to sustained economic growth. These efforts will ensure that Slidell not only supports local businesses but also fosters those that bring external revenue into the community, strengthening the overall economy.
]]>In today’s digital landscape, distinguishing between genuine human interactions and artificial engagements has become increasingly challenging. The Simulacrum Theory of Digital Engagement offers a framework to understand how Automated Digital Interactions—such as AI, bots, automated scripts, and click farms—distort online engagement metrics. This theory explores the implications of these simulated interactions on digital marketing, impression management, and social interaction on social media.
The Simulacrum Theory of Digital Engagement posits that the widespread use of Automated Digital Interactions in online environments creates a hyperreal layer of activity that distorts authentic engagement metrics. This theory suggests that these simulated interactions blur the line between real and artificial user behavior, leading to inflated and misleading engagement statistics. As a result, digital marketers and social media users may develop skewed perceptions of content popularity and effectiveness, impacting strategic decision-making, impression management, and social interaction. The theory emphasizes the challenges in discerning genuine human engagement from artificial activity and its implications for the authenticity and reliability of digital engagement metrics.
Inflated Metrics and Hyperreality Automated Digital Interactions generate inflated engagement metrics, making it difficult to distinguish between genuine human actions and automated responses. This creates a hyperreal environment where the metrics used to measure success are no longer reliable indicators of actual human behavior.
Impact on Digital Marketing For digital marketers, inflated engagement metrics can lead to distorted perceptions of campaign success. Strategies and decisions based on these metrics may be misguided, resulting in ineffective or inefficient use of resources. Marketers must develop sophisticated tools and techniques to filter out artificial interactions to obtain a more accurate picture of their audience’s behavior.
Impression Management on Social Media On social media, impression management is critical. Users tailor their content and interactions to present themselves in a favorable light. Automated Digital Interactions can skew engagement metrics, leading users to believe certain types of content are more popular or influential than they actually are. This may cause users to adjust their behavior and content strategies to align with what they perceive as successful, further perpetuating the cycle of artificial engagement.
Social Interaction Dynamics Artificial engagement also impacts social interactions. Perceived popularity, driven by inflated metrics, influences how individuals perceive and interact with others online. This can lead to more superficial interactions, as users respond to perceived popularity rather than genuine content. Over time, trust in online interactions may diminish, and the authenticity of social interactions can be compromised.
Detecting and Filtering Artificial Engagement One of the primary challenges is developing effective methods to detect and filter out Automated Digital Interactions. Advanced analytics and verification tools are essential for distinguishing between genuine and artificial clicks.
Research and Policy Development Further research is needed to understand the long-term effects of hyperreality on consumer trust and behavior. Additionally, policies and guidelines must be developed to ensure more accurate and trustworthy engagement metrics on digital platforms.
Educating Digital Marketers and Users Educating digital marketers and social media users about the prevalence and impact of artificial engagement is crucial. Awareness and understanding can help mitigate the effects of inflated metrics and promote more authentic online interactions.
The Simulacrum Theory of Digital Engagement underscores the complexities of distinguishing between real and artificial interactions in the digital age. By recognizing and addressing the influence of Automated Digital Interactions, marketers and social media users can better navigate the challenges of hyperreality, leading to more authentic and effective digital strategies. As we continue to explore the implications of this theory, it is essential to develop tools, policies, and educational initiatives that support the integrity of online engagement metrics.
By understanding and applying the Simulacrum Theory of Digital Engagement, we can move towards a digital landscape that prioritizes genuine interactions and trustworthy metrics, ultimately fostering a more authentic online environment.
]]>At the heart of USAT lies the concept of adaptive self-presentation. This principle suggests that individuals dynamically adjust their self-expression in response to the unique norms, cues, and expectations of each environment they encounter. Far from being a passive entity subject to the whims of technology, the unified self is an active participant, leveraging its cognitive resources to engage in strategic self-presentation. This adaptability underscores the resilience and complexity of human identity, challenging traditional notions of a fragmented self torn between online and offline worlds.
Drawing upon interdisciplinary insights from sociology, psychology, and neuroscience, USAT offers a comprehensive lens through which to examine the intricate dance between self, technology, and society. It delves into the cognitive processes underpinning adaptive self-presentation, exploring how the brain allocates resources to manage the demands of varying social contexts. This exploration sheds light on the neural mechanisms that enable the self to remain cohesive and consistent, despite the fluidity of its expressions across different platforms and settings.
Moreover, USAT addresses the implications of this unified, adaptable self for social interactions, mental health, and the broader fabric of society. It considers how constant connectivity and the blurring of digital and physical boundaries affect our relationships, emotional well-being, and collective social dynamics. By framing the self as inherently adaptable, USAT provides a hopeful perspective on the potential for individuals to navigate the challenges of the digital age with agency and purpose.
As we stand at the crossroads of an ever-evolving digital frontier, the Unified Self Adaptation Theory serves as a vital guide for understanding the complexities of self-identity in the 21st century. It challenges us to reconsider our assumptions about identity, technology, and the nature of human adaptability. This theory is not merely an academic proposition; it is a lens through which we can better understand ourselves and the rapidly changing world around us.
The Unified Self Adaptation Theory (USAT) provides a comprehensive framework to understand the dynamic and complex nature of identity in the modern, digitized world. This theory encapsulates the intricacies of how individuals navigate their sense of self across varying contexts, emphasizing a singular, yet multifaceted self that adeptly adapts across both digital and physical environments. Here is a detailed exploration of the core premises of USAT, showcasing its depth and applicability in explaining the contemporary human experience.
In the expansive tapestry of human interaction, both in the physical and digital realms, the Unified Self Adaptation Theory (USAT) offers a compelling lens through which to understand the nuanced dance of identity validation. Central to USAT is the notion that individuals continuously engage in adaptive self-presentation, not merely as an act of social navigation but as a quest for identity validation. This chapter delves into the intricacies of how people seek and receive validation for their identities, emphasizing the hierarchical prioritization of certain identities—biologically based and hardcoded identities like gender and race—over others such as parental and professional roles.
Identities, at their core, are constructed from an intricate web of meanings that are intrinsically connected to symbols or clusters of related symbols, which can manifest in both physical and abstract forms. These symbols serve as the building blocks of identity, encoding rich layers of societal, cultural, biological, and personal significance. Whether it’s the physical embodiment of gender through clothing and appearance, the racial identity signified by skin color, or the non-physical, such as the honor and respect associated with professional titles like ‘doctor’ or ‘professor’, each symbol carries with it a specific set of meanings that are recognized and understood within a particular social context. This symbolic system allows individuals to communicate vast arrays of information about themselves, their values, and their place within the social fabric, using these symbols as shorthand for complex narratives and histories. Thus, identity is not merely about the symbols themselves but about the meanings we ascribe to them. However, it’s crucial to acknowledge that certain qualities related to biological-based identities such as gender (i.e., women being more agreeable than men on average) have formed over three hundred thousand years of evolution and are inherent and fixed unless stimulated to change, and their associated meanings and symbols hold a non-negotiable place within the spectrum of human identity.
Defining the hierarchy of identity involves categorizing identities into three distinct levels based on their foundational significance, societal influence, and personal impact. These levels help clarify how different aspects of our identities interplay and are prioritized within both individual perception and social interaction.
Definition: Core biological identities refer to the most fundamental aspects of an individual’s identity that are determined by biological attributes. These include gender and race, which are typically visible and immutable from birth.
Characteristics:
Definition: Relational and social role identities are formed through an individual’s social interactions and the roles they assume in relation to others. These include being a parent, friend, partner, or member of a community.
Characteristics:
Definition: Professional and achieved identities encompass the aspects of identity that individuals acquire through their own efforts, achievements, and the professional roles they inhabit. These include career-oriented roles such as teacher, engineer, or artist, as well as identities formed through personal achievements and hobbies.
Characteristics:
At the core of human interaction lies the fundamental need for identity validation. This validation acts as a mirror, reflecting the perceived accuracy and value of one’s self-conception through the reactions and acknowledgments of others. The USAT posits that this quest for validation is not a uniform process but is intricately linked to the nature and perceived importance of the identities involved.
Biologically based identities, such as gender and race, often occupy the highest tier in the hierarchy of identity validation. These identities, often visible and unchangeable without medical procedures, serve as foundational pillars of self-conception. They are imbued with deep societal meanings and narratives that transcend individual experience, making validation in these domains profoundly impactful.
In the digital realm, where the visual cues that signal these identities can be obscured or highlighted at will, the quest for validation takes on new dimensions. Individuals may choose to emphasize or de-emphasize aspects of their gender and race in their digital presentations, navigating the complex interplay between visibility, anonymity, and the desire for authentic recognition.
A step below in the hierarchy lie parental and relational identities, such as being a mother, father, or partner. These identities, while significant, are often validated within narrower social circles. The quest for validation in these roles is deeply tied to interpersonal relationships and the private sphere, where the criteria for validation are more intimately defined and less subject to the broad societal narratives that shape gender and race.
Digital platforms offer unique spaces for the expression and validation of these identities, from social media posts celebrating familial milestones to online communities centered around parenting. In these spaces, individuals seek out echoes of their experiences and recognition of their roles, weaving together a tapestry of validation that spans both private and public domains.
At the lower end of the hierarchy are professional identities, such as being a teacher, engineer, or scientist. The validation of these identities is highly context-dependent, fluctuating with the settings in which they are enacted and the societal value placed on the profession. In the digital age, professional identities are often extended into online networks, where achievements and accolades can be broadcasted and validated on a broader scale.
However, USAT underscores that the validation of professional identities, while significant, often carries less emotional weight than that of hardcoded or relational identities. The quest for professional validation is a quest for respect and recognition in the public sphere, distinct from the deeply personal validation sought in the realms of gender, race, and family.
Through the lens of the Unified Self Adaptation Theory, I have explored the layered hierarchy of identity validation, from the foundational realms of gender and race to the nuanced domains of family and profession. In both the digital and physical worlds, individuals navigate this hierarchy, seeking signals and symbols that affirm their multifaceted selves. The USAT not only illuminates the complexities of this quest for validation but also offers a framework for understanding the adaptive strategies individuals employ as they seek recognition across the diverse landscapes of identity.
The Unified Self Adaptation Theory (USAT) provides a comprehensive framework for understanding how individuals navigate the complexities of self-presentation in an increasingly digital world. By emphasizing a unified, adaptable self, USAT offers insights into the cognitive, social, and neural dynamics underpinning self-presentation and identity management across diverse contexts. This theory invites further exploration into the strategies individuals employ to maintain authenticity and coherence of the self amidst the ever-changing landscapes of social interaction.
USAT provides a nuanced framework that captures the essence of how individuals navigate and adapt their sense of self across digital and physical realms, emphasizing the unified yet multifaceted nature of identity. This concluding chapter synthesizes the key insights from USAT, discusses its broader implications, and proposes directions for future experimental research to further elucidate and expand upon the theory.
USAT’s holistic perspective on identity adaptation and presentation in varied contexts offers critical insights into contemporary social interactions, mental health, and the interplay between technology and self-perception. It highlights the cognitive and emotional labor involved in navigating identity across platforms and spaces, pointing to the need for increased awareness and support in managing these complexities. The theory underscores the importance of recognizing and validating the multifaceted nature of identity, advocating for a more inclusive understanding of self that accommodates the fluidity and adaptability inherent in human experience.
Moreover, USAT prompts a reevaluation of digital spaces’ role in identity formation and expression. It challenges us to consider how digital environments can be designed and moderated to support authentic self-presentation and positive social interactions. The theory also calls attention to the potential disparities in identity validation across different groups, emphasizing the need for digital inclusivity and equity.
To further explore and validate the tenets of USAT, a series of experimental studies are proposed. These studies aim to empirically investigate the dynamics of self-presentation and identity adaptation across digital and physical contexts, providing quantitative and qualitative data to refine and expand the theory.
The Unified Self Adaptation Theory (USAT) opens new vistas for understanding the complex landscape of identity in the digital age. It encourages a holistic view of the self that acknowledges the intricacies of navigating multiple identities across diverse contexts. By proposing future experimental studies, this theory lays the groundwork for a deeper empirical understanding of identity dynamics, offering pathways to enhance individual well-being and social cohesion in an increasingly digitized world. As we move forward, USAT not only serves as a guide for navigating the self but also as a call to action for creating more supportive and inclusive digital environments that honor the full spectrum of human identity.
]]>In the digital realm, success lies in reading the unspoken rules of your audience. This principle is foundational in digital marketing, where understanding implicit consumer behaviors and expectations is crucial. Digital marketing strategies should consider social influence – how to sway public opinion and behavior subtly. Just as individuals in a public setting adjust their behavior based on social cues, digital marketers must fine-tune their strategies to the subtle signals from their audience. In marketing, group dynamics play a crucial role; understanding your audience’s behavior is key to engagement.
Web design is the art of creating digital ‘public places’ where people feel comfortable to gather and engage. Effective web design considers impression management – every element should contribute to the overall image you want to convey. A website should be a looking-glass self; it reflects not only your brand but also how your audience sees you. Web design is an exercise in social cognition; understanding how users think and process information leads to better user experiences.
Creating video content is like orchestrating a public performance, where every element matters. In video marketing, every frame, cut, and spoken word plays a crucial role in engaging the audience. Video content should leverage social facilitation; the presence of an audience, even virtual, can enhance performance and engagement.
Social media is the digital equivalent of a public square – a place for dialogue, display, and observation. Social media is a platform for symbolic interactionism, where every like, comment, and share holds meaning. On social media platforms, brands and individuals alike perform, observe, and interact. Social media marketing is about mastering social perception; how your brand is seen can define its success.
Impression Management in Marketing: In the world of marketing, every touchpoint is a chance to make a meaningful connection. Digital marketing requires understanding cognitive dissonance; align your messaging to avoid conflicting with consumer beliefs.
Dramaturgy and The Front Stage and Back Stage of Marketing: In digital marketing, the front stage is your website or social media profile, while the back stage is your analytics and strategy sessions. Marketing is an ongoing process of social negotiation, constantly adapting to the changing needs and perceptions of the audience.
The digital marketing landscape is a complex web of interactions and impressions. By applying Goffman’s social interaction theories, we gain valuable insights into navigating this space effectively. Effective digital marketing requires social learning; observe and adapt to the evolving behaviors of your audience. In the digital marketplace, trust is currency. Building this trust requires a deep understanding of the social dynamics at play in digital interactions. Digital marketing is an exercise in social perception; it’s not just about what you say, but how it’s perceived. Embracing these lessons from social theories can significantly enhance our digital marketing strategies. Marketing is about social facilitation; it’s not just what you communicate, but how you encourage others to respond.
]]>Have you heard that the coronavirus can have a 14 day incubation period? I have to and when I first heard it I was immediately skeptical given my prior experience with research and what I know about viruses from working in healthcare.
Turns out, that this “fact” (highly unlikely) circulating all over social media is based on a few studies. The first flawed study that I am looking at did a content analysis of news articles and public health reports. The problem with news articles and public health reports is most of it is self reported data, involves flawed data collection methods, influenced by human error, etc. The study that everyone is quoting was not done in a lab or based on solid data. The authors on where their data came from: “We searched for news and public health reports of confirmed COVID-19 cases in areas with no known community transmission, including provinces, regions, and countries outside Hubei.”
The study claims, “there were 181 confirmed cases with identifiable exposure and symptom onset windows to estimate the incubation period of COVID-19. The median incubation period was estimated to be 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8 days), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) of infection.
Looking at this study’s findings you can see that there are huge ranges in their confidence intervals and they are only 95% certain that the median incubation period is between 4.5 and 5.8 days. Even if this is true, which is unlikely given their flawed method of data collection, there is a 5% likelihood that the median is not between 4.5 and 5.8 days.
Upon looking for journal articles related to this topic I found another flawed coronavirus study. This study found that the mean incubation period is between 5.5 and 9.5 days for the small sample size of “asymptomatic” individuals. But there is one huge methodological issue.
Here is what the researchers claim they did to come up with the incubation period: “In this study, we conducted a statistical modelling analysis to estimate the proportion of asymptomatic individuals among those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 on board the ship until 20 February 2020 included, along with their times of infections.”
This study is flawed as well because it assumes the individuals were asymptomatic for a number of days based on the amount of time spent on the ship as opposed to catching the virus through some other means at a later date while on the ship. Their data show that the first batch of asymptomatic cases don’t appear until February 15, over a week after the first date in their data points.
Additionally, people can ignore symptoms, hide symptoms due to the stigma attached to coronavirus, misreport the onset of symptoms, and/or not be aware of their symptoms. Much of the data about symptoms prior to diagnosis is self reported.
Here’s my evidence to support that the asymptomatic individuals could have just caught the virus at a later date. The NY Times reported, “In the passenger decks of the quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship, more than 2,500 travelers are carefully isolated. Meals are delivered to their cabins. They have permission to walk on deck, six feet apart, for a few minutes a day. Down below, more than 1,000 crew members live and work elbow-to-elbow, preparing the passengers’ dishes and eating simple buffet-style meals together, with as many as four sharing a bathroom — and sharing the risk of possible infection from the coronavirus.”
Professor Ioannidis at Stanford University Has a very interesting article similar to this found here He also published an editorial in the European Journal of Clinic Investigation titled Coronavirus disease 2019: the harms of exaggerated information and non-evidence-based measures
The problem that all of these studies have in common is much of the data is self-reported and the researchers make assumptions about when the individual were exposed to the virus. In all likelihood, the incubation period of this new coronavirus is similar to the incubation period of the flu (1-4 days) or SARS-CoV (2-7 days) and the 14 day incubation period is being reported as a conservative measure to safeguard the public against infection. While I understand this tact, the 14 day incubation period is being taken as an absolute fact by the public and influencing their behaviors such as hoarding toilet paper, bread, hand sanitizer, soap, disinfectant, and so on. Businesses are being closed and events canceled based on the presumed fact that anyone can be infected for up to two weeks before showing symptoms. I’m not an economist but I’m sure that in the future there will be studies that analyze how the events of this pandemic have had devastating results on the economy, some of which could have been avoided.
Please Note: I do think the virus is highly contagious and a serious public health concern. I also think that social distancing is an appropriate strategy within reason.