Allen-Villere Partners

Where Are Mortgage Rates Going for the Next Five Years?

Graham Sax — Wed, 14 Oct 2026 15:00:24 +0000

We all know the new home market adds a great deal of volume and revenue to the construction materials industry, and that new-housing activity has been in a moribund state for years now. Stubborn inflation, exacerbated by the recent shock of high oil prices, has kept the Fed from easing on interest rates. And quite [...]

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The Consumer and the Job Market

Graham Sax — Wed, 07 Oct 2026 15:00:39 +0000

Consumer confidence is top of mind at our firm. That one indicator (actually two, one from the University of Michigan and the other from The Conference Board) says more about the state of our economy than any other metric or indicator that we track and study. But something very curious has happened recently, and for [...]

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The AVP Pulse Index for September

Graham Sax — Tue, 29 Sep 2026 15:00:02 +0000

The AVP Pulse Index this month dropped 1.7% month-over-month, while decreasing 0.6% year-over-year; yet up 10.3% over the past 36 months. The proprietary AVP Pulse Index – a joint effort between mergers and acquisition advisors Allen-Villere Partners and Rock Products – illustrates the health of the industry in one single trend line, using relevant data that is [...]

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$40 Trillion

Graham Sax — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 15:00:42 +0000

That’s the Federal debt. It crossed that threshold around the time this issue went to print and is a grim milestone to say the least. I wonder if we can just put it on a credit card and be done with it? Let me give you an illustration I like to use in trying to [...]

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The Old Condo Conundrum

Graham Sax — Tue, 15 Sep 2026 15:00:17 +0000

The condominium culture is a uniquely recent form of housing in American history, born well after the end of World War II. Modern legal condominiums began in the United States in the late 1950s and early 1960s. The Commonwealth of Puerto Rico passed the first horizontal property statute in 1958, and the first mainland U.S. [...]

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The AVP Pulse Index for August

Graham Sax — Thu, 27 Aug 2026 15:00:29 +0000

The AVP Pulse Index this month rose 1.6% month-over-month, while increasing 1.6% year-over-year; and 11.5% over the past 36 months. The proprietary AVP Pulse Index — a joint effort between mergers and acquisition advisors Allen-Villere Partners and Rock Products — illustrates the health of the industry in one single trend line, using relevant data that [...]

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What The ROAD Act Holds For Housing

Graham Sax — Fri, 07 Aug 2026 15:00:10 +0000

The 21st Century ROAD To Housing Act became law last month, and is in many ways a piece of landmark legislation. The Act passed the Senate by an astounding 85-5, and passed the House by an equally astounding 358-32. I say “astounding” because not a single piece of important legislation has been passed in the [...]

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The AVP Pulse Index for July

Graham Sax — Wed, 29 Jul 2026 15:46:03 +0000

The AVP Pulse Index this month dropped 1.5% month-over-month, while increasing 3.2% year-over-year; and 8.2% over the past 36 months. The proprietary AVP Pulse Index — a joint effort between mergers and acquisition advisors Allen-Villere Partners and Rock Products — illustrates the health of the industry in one single trend line, using relevant data that is [...]

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Tailwinds to Tropical Winds

Graham Sax — Wed, 15 Jul 2026 15:00:00 +0000

I won’t apologize for my unusual fixation with the economic engine that is being propelled by artificial intelligence. Some of you may have heard me speak at industry conferences over the last year, where I have made around a dozen presentations to national and state associations. My last few slides of every presentation talk about [...]

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Blame Remote Work, Not AI

Graham Sax — Tue, 07 Jul 2026 15:00:24 +0000

Over the course of the last year or two, I have written on multiple occasions, both here and in our sister publications, about the pandemic-era Work-From-Home (WFH) phenomenon. I was always convinced it would not stick, as it was driven by a pendulum swing in employment leverage to the employee side, who could practically dictate [...]

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THE AVP PULSE INDEX FOR JUNE

Graham Sax — Wed, 01 Jul 2026 15:00:31 +0000

Allen-Villere Partners Market Analysis Construction Materials Following three rate cuts in the latter half of 2025, the Federal Reserve has maintained its Federal Funds target range at 3.50% – 3.75%. With inflation showing renewed signs of acceleration, market participants have meaningfully scaled back expectations for near-term easing, with consensus now pointing to a prolonged hold. [...]

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Our Economy Has a Split Personality

Graham Sax — Fri, 12 Jun 2026 15:00:18 +0000

I was visiting with an industry professional recently, and he was asking about my perception of what had the new home building industry in such a headlock. I repeated the obvious: interest rates, insurance costs, and affordability. He went on to mention that he had just completed a new custom home, and in speaking to [...]

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The Labor Market Is Saving Us

Graham Sax — Fri, 05 Jun 2026 15:00:54 +0000

Last month, I wrote about tanking consumer confidence, and since then, it has gotten even worse. Since my last column, consumer confidence has fallen further and now has dropped to the lowest level in 70 years. This fresh record low comes about as the war in Iran drags on, keeping energy prices elevated. I have [...]

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Affordability Trickery

Graham Sax — Thu, 21 May 2026 15:00:00 +0000

Hand it to great Yankee ingenuity to find a way around the affordability issue facing homebuyers, and many other segments of the economy, to give consumers a break. An example is the newfound way automobile manufacturers are addressing the new car affordability challenge, a trend that could soon spill over into the home mortgage market. [...]

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The AVP Pulse Index for May

Graham Sax — Mon, 18 May 2026 15:00:30 +0000

The AVP Pulse Index this month rose 1.4% month-over-month, while increasing 6.7% year-over-year, and 14.6% over the past 36 months. The proprietary AVP Pulse Index – a joint effort between mergers and acquisition advisors Allen-Villere Partners and Rock Products – illustrates the health of the industry in one single trend line, using relevant data that is updated [...]

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Consumer Confidence Tanks

Graham Sax — Fri, 15 May 2026 15:00:31 +0000

The challenge with writing a monthly column is the lead times required by the publisher, plus the fact that a reader might not see the magazine, or the digital version, until the end of the month. That means a potential span of several weeks, which is a lifetime in this fluid environment, where decisions by [...]

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The AVP Pulse Index for April

Graham Sax — Wed, 22 Apr 2026 15:00:27 +0000

The AVP Pulse Index this month rose 1.5% month-over-month, while increasing 6% year-over-year; and 15.3% over the past 36 months. The proprietary AVP Pulse Index – a joint effort between mergers and acquisition advisors Allen-Villere Partners and Rock Products – illustrates the health of the industry in one single trend line, using relevant data that is updated [...]

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Chicken Littles

Graham Sax — Tue, 07 Apr 2026 15:00:59 +0000

Here we go again. The sky is falling. Do you remember watching CNBC and reading the popular business press like the Wall Street Journal, Yahoo Finance, and others back when interest rates started to climb? To be sure, the Fed was making the right pre-emptive moves against the sudden shock of inflation that came about [...]

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Black Swan?

Graham Sax — Fri, 03 Apr 2026 15:00:50 +0000

No. Let me say that again. No. A “Black Swan” is a sudden change in circumstances of epic proportions brought about by a single, major event that causes an economic shakeup. The war in Iran is not one of them. The war in Iran has caught everyone off guard, to be sure, and businesses across [...]

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The AVP Pulse Index for March

Graham Sax — Wed, 25 Mar 2026 15:00:14 +0000

Allen-Villere Partners Market Analysis Construction Materials The Federal Reserve cut rates three times in late 2025, bringing the Federal Funds target range to 3.50% – 3.75%. The Fed has held rates steady at that level through early 2026 while monitoring inflation and labor market conditions. Current market expectations imply only modest easing in 2026. Inflation [...]

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A Job Growth Tear

Graham Sax — Tue, 10 Mar 2026 15:00:28 +0000

I concluded in last month’s column that the consumer, who represents 70 percent of GDP, is on a spending tear, despite the cost of tariffs and the ubiquitous “affordability” issue we keep reading about. I commented that even the softening job market was not a downdraft on consumer spending and the overall strength of the [...]

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The AVP Pulse Index for February

Graham Sax — Tue, 24 Feb 2026 15:00:31 +0000

The AVP Pulse Index this month dropped 0.5% month-over-month, while increasing 2.1% year-over-year; and 13.9% over the past 36 months. The proprietary AVP Pulse Index – a joint effort between mergers and acquisition advisors Allen-Villere Partners and Rock Products – illustrates the health of the industry in one single trend line, using relevant data that is updated [...]

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Employment Rocks

Graham Sax — Mon, 23 Feb 2026 15:00:50 +0000

The economic outlook for 2026 started off like a rocket, surprising economists and further solidifying our firm’s view that the economy is on solid footing, and isn’t faltering anytime soon. Many of you have heard me present, or read here in these pages, about my 53-year business career, and how the tectonic shifts we experienced [...]

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The Consumer Tear

Graham Sax — Fri, 06 Feb 2026 15:00:59 +0000

Throughout my 50-year-plus career, I have had a chance to observe the movement of GDP from searing growth to recession, and normal times in between. During the Reagan years, when GDP hit a 4 percent growth rate, everyone cheered the steaming U. S. economy, so much so that the Fed had to step in and [...]

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Behind the Affordability Discussion

Graham Sax — Thu, 29 Jan 2026 15:00:01 +0000

I have been saying this for months: wage growth is outpacing inflation. What most Americans suffer from is the blinding punch between the eyes when they see the escalating prices at the supermarket, reminding them that everything from bread and eggs to pre-cooked meals have all gone up substantially in the last couple of years. [...]

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The AVP Pulse Index for January

Graham Sax — Thu, 15 Jan 2026 15:00:06 +0000

The AVP Pulse Index this month rose 1.1% month-over-month, while increasing 3.6% year-over-year; and 14.3% over the past 36 months. The proprietary AVP Pulse Index – a joint effort between mergers and acquisition advisors Allen-Villere Partners and Rock Products – illustrates the health of the industry in one single trend line, using relevant data that is updated [...]

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The Pendulum Swings Farther

Graham Sax — Thu, 08 Jan 2026 15:00:39 +0000

Back in the fall of 2022, I wrote a couple of columns about the employment challenges that existed before Covid, challenges that grew exponentially during and after the pandemic. We all remember those times: the lockdowns due to the pandemic, the free flow of stimulus money, and the necessary concessions employers had to make brought [...]

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The First EV Shoe Drops

Graham Sax — Tue, 06 Jan 2026 15:00:00 +0000

Last month’s business news was certainly dominated by the biggest news story of December: Ford Motor Company is taking a $19.5 billion write-down in its investment in EV technology and vehicles. $19.5 billion. Let me explain. That is 19,500 million dollars. A staggering sum of money. I have been predicting a major blowout in the [...]

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The AVP Pulse Index for December

Graham Sax — Fri, 19 Dec 2025 15:00:17 +0000

The AVP Pulse Index this month dropped -0.2% month-over-month, while increasing 2.8% year-over-year; and 14.1% over the past 36 months. The proprietary AVP Pulse Index – a joint effort between mergers and acquisition advisors Allen-Villere Partners and Rock Products – illustrates the health of the industry in one single trend line, using relevant data that is updated [...]

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Housing Coming Down To Earth?

Graham Sax — Mon, 08 Dec 2025 15:00:26 +0000

There is much data to support the editorial commentary we hear in our industry about “housing coming back down to earth.” I’m not buying it. Yes, maybe it’s coming down from earth’s outer orbit and settling into less rarified air, but by no means is the housing market headed for a hard landing. We all [...]

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The Seeds of Uncertainty

Graham Sax — Tue, 02 Dec 2025 15:00:40 +0000

One thing we can certainly say about the current winds in Washington is that they are blowing the seeds of uncertainty about, as voters and businesses all wonder what the outcome of these never-ending policy changes means for our businesses, and our daily lives. In the 53rd year of my career, I have never known [...]

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The AVP Pulse Index for November

Graham Sax — Wed, 19 Nov 2025 15:00:04 +0000

The AVP Pulse Index this month dropped 1.7% month-over-month, while increasing 4.6% year-over-year; and 14.6% over the past 36 months. The proprietary AVP Pulse Index – a joint effort between mergers and acquisition advisors Allen-Villere Partners and Rock Products – illustrates the health of the industry in one single trend line, using relevant data that is updated [...]

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Jamie Dimon’s Neighborhood

Graham Sax — Tue, 18 Nov 2025 15:22:02 +0000

Last month, I wrote about the steady (and heavy) hand that Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chase chairman and CEO, was bringing to the Return to Office movement with the opening of its sparkling new $3 billion headquarters at 270 Park Avenue in the best location in Midtown Manhattan. But while the gleaming, 60-story symbol of [...]

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AI and Its Promise

Graham Sax — Wed, 12 Nov 2025 15:00:33 +0000

As I have mentioned in the past, I am in the 53rd year of my business career, with the vast majority spent in the construction materials industry. Peering into history, we can identify huge tectonic shifts that rapidly advanced us as a society: the canal systems that connected the eastern United States to the burgeoning [...]

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The AVP Pulse Index for October

Graham Sax — Mon, 27 Oct 2025 17:16:49 +0000

October 21, 2025 Rock Products News Oct. 21, 2025 – The AVP Pulse Index this month rose 0.7% month-over-month, while increasing 6.7% year-over-year; and 16.7% the past 36 months. The proprietary AVP Pulse Index – a joint effort between mergers and acquisition advisors Allen-Villere Partners and Rock Products – illustrates the health of the industry in one single trend [...]

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Is New Home Construction About to Boom?

Graham Sax — Tue, 21 Oct 2025 15:00:51 +0000

I travel the country in connection with our clients’ business, but also to make presentations to state and national associations within the construction materials industry, including ready mixed concrete, aggregates, and precast groups. Over the course of the last 18 months, in reviewing the financial performance of each of these industries, I have noted that [...]

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Studying Non-Traditional Metrics

Graham Sax — Mon, 20 Oct 2025 18:15:41 +0000

September 9, 2025 Pierre Villere One of my best friends for 40-plus years designs and installs custom closets. You’ve seen them – they usually integrate dressers, drawers and shelving with high- and low-hanging clothing racks to maximize floor space and assure that all walls are utilized to the greatest extent possible so we can stuff ever [...]

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AVP Index: September 2025

Graham Sax — Mon, 29 Sep 2025 15:19:47 +0000

Construction Materials The Federal Reserve has maintained rates at 4.25% – 4.50% since the last 25 basis point cut in December 2024. It is uncertain as to when we will see the next rate cut. Futures markets are pricing in a quarter percentage point cut for the September meeting. The current annual inflation rate increased [...]

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The American Home Industry

Graham Sax — Mon, 22 Sep 2025 17:19:04 +0000

Over the course of my 53-year career, it has been interesting to study the profile of the typical homebuilder in America, because in that half-century, his or her metrics have not changed very much. Despite the growth trajectory of the major, national homebuilders who are most often publicly traded, the average homebuilder is still a [...]

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AVP Index: August 2025

Graham Sax — Tue, 02 Sep 2025 15:29:07 +0000

Aug. 25, 2025 – The AVP Pulse Index this month rose 3.9% month-over-month, while increasing 6.8% year-over-year; and 14.6% over the past 36 months. The proprietary AVP Pulse Index – a joint effort between mergers and acquisition advisors Allen-Villere Partners and Rock Products – illustrates the health of the industry in one single trend line, using relevant data [...]

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Stuck In Neutral

Graham Sax — Thu, 21 Aug 2025 17:04:05 +0000

In my never-ending pronouncements of how sentiment is self-fulfilling, the housing market—stuck in neutral—is reflecting yet further signs of remaining in a moribund state until the one action that can revive it finally takes place: a lowering of interest rates. In a further sign of declining builder sentiment, the use of price incentives increased sharply [...]

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The Depreciation Payday

Graham Sax — Thu, 21 Aug 2025 16:22:33 +0000

I am not a CPA or even an accountant, and we are crystal clear in engagement documents with our clients that we do not offer tax, securities, or legal advice. Our direction to them is they must look to their own CPAs, attorneys, and financial advisors to help understand the various tax and legal ramifications [...]

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AVP Index: July 2025

Graham Sax — Fri, 25 Jul 2025 14:31:20 +0000

July 22, 2025 – The AVP Pulse Index this month rose 1% month-over-month, while increasing 3.2% year-over-year; and 10.7% over the past 36 months. The proprietary AVP Pulse Index – a joint effort between mergers and acquisition advisors Allen-Villere Partners and Rock Products – illustrates the health of the industry in one single trend line, using relevant data [...]

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The Hidden Importance of Immigrant Labor

Graham Sax — Mon, 07 Jul 2025 15:41:42 +0000

July 7, 2025 Pierre Villere The entire topic of illegal immigration and securing our borders has been on the forefront of the Trump administration’s agenda since the campaign last year. It ranks right up there with the tariff discussion and the uncertainty of our involvement in the Russia/Ukraine conflict, and most recently, the Iran/Israel war. But [...]

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AVP Index: June 2025

Graham Sax — Fri, 27 Jun 2025 15:20:13 +0000

The AVP Pulse Index is down -0.6% for the month, but still up +2.2% year-over-year and +8.2% over the past 36 months. But these positive Yearly and 36-Month measures are rapidly shrinking, because in the last quarter, the Index was up +4.2% year-over-year, and +10.5% over the prior 36 months. This clearly means [...]

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California Dreamin’

Graham Sax — Thu, 12 Jun 2025 19:47:02 +0000

I have recently spent some time studying the mammoth size and diversity of the California economy and its output, and the numbers are striking. Its total output is the fourth largest economy of the world, only behind the United States ($30.5 trillion), China ($19.2 trillion), and Germany ($4.7-$4.9 trillion). At $4.1 trillion, the Golden State [...]

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Goodbye to a Brilliant Mind Who Reshaped Investing

Graham Sax — Tue, 27 May 2025 19:43:22 +0000

The most difficult thing about being 73 (which I am) is saying goodbye to long-standing business relationships that have lasted for years, if not decades. The hardest ones are the relationships that are close to me personally; a few months back, my 30-year-plus CPA retired and left a huge hole in my life, which I [...]

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AVP Index: May 2025

Graham Sax — Fri, 16 May 2025 18:11:42 +0000

The AVP Pulse Index this month dropped -0.2% month-over-month, while increasing +3.6% year-over-year; and +9.1% over the past 36 months. After a small but unexpected bump upwards last month, the AVP Pulse Index retreated slightly for the month. Very small (+1.0%) gains in the Dodge Data Momentum Index and the NAHB/Well Fargo Housing Index, [...]

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The Endlessness of Suburbia

Graham Sax — Fri, 09 May 2025 19:40:44 +0000

There is a uniqueness to the landscape of modern American cities that is one of the envies of the world and has been emulated in many other countries: the suburb. Most don’t remember that the modern suburb is a relatively contemporary concept that did not appear until after World War II. The father of the [...]

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3D Printing is Advancing

Graham Sax — Fri, 09 May 2025 16:13:04 +0000

My inclination was to write an additional commentary on the topic I covered last month: uncertainty. The fact is that all of us are probably punch drunk watching the business news broadcasts and reading about the disruption across Washington, D.C. in the business and popular consumer press. Enough already. There is nothing we can do [...]

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April 2025

Graham Sax — Tue, 29 Apr 2025 15:00:21 +0000

The AVP Pulse Index this month rose 0.8% month-over-month, while increasing 2.6% year-over-year; and 11.1% over the past 36 months. The proprietary AVP Pulse Index – a joint effort between mergers and acquisition advisors Allen-Villere Partners and Rock Products – illustrates the health of the industry in one single trend line, using relevant data that is [...]

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The Consumer Is Getting Nervous

Graham Sax — Tue, 22 Apr 2025 19:46:06 +0000

Uncertainty. The single biggest downdraft on consumer confidence, or sentiment, depending on which measure you read, but they mean basically the same. And there is so much uncertainty right now, confidence is plummeting with what could be a profound effect on the economy. Let me explain what has changed. If you read my columns regularly, [...]

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A Black Swan?

Graham Sax — Thu, 17 Apr 2025 19:38:50 +0000

April 17, 2025 Pierre Villere I wrote about the most recent Black Swan event in this and our sister publication in the spring of 2020. I first wrote about the fear that was gripping Milan, Italy, as ground zero in the West for the rapidly spreading COVID-19 pandemic, and I worried about how rapidly and how [...]

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March 2025

Graham Sax — Thu, 27 Mar 2025 19:13:05 +0000

March 27, 2025 – The AVP Pulse Index this month dropped 2.2% month-over-month, while increasing 4.2% year-over-year; and 10.5% over the past 36 months. The proprietary AVP Pulse Index – a joint effort between mergers and acquisition advisors Allen-Villere Partners and Rock Products – illustrates the health of the industry in one single trend line, using relevant [...]

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Consumer Debt and Jobs Data

Graham Sax — Wed, 12 Mar 2025 15:00:11 +0000

A couple of months ago, I wrote that I was tapping the brakes on my expectations for the construction economy based on some unexpected changes in circumstances: interest rates are not falling as quickly as had been predicted in the face of stubborn inflation, coupled with consumer sentiment that is on a wholly unexpected slide [...]

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Here Comes the Great Insurance Crisis

Graham Sax — Thu, 06 Mar 2025 15:00:54 +0000

Fifty billion dollars. That is $50,000 million. I like to use that analogy so that readers can understand the magnitude of a billion dollars, which is $1,000 million. That is what the devastation in Southern California’s recent fires cost. Insurance is one of the great gifts of finance to mankind. Through the statistical magic of [...]

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February 2025

Graham Sax — Sat, 15 Feb 2025 15:00:28 +0000

Feb. 17, 2025 – The AVP Pulse Index this month rose 1.5% month-over-month, while increasing 5.6% year-over-year; and 12.9% over the past 36 months. The proprietary AVP Pulse Index – a joint effort between mergers and acquisition advisors Allen-Villere Partners and Rock Products – illustrates the health of the industry in one single trend line, using relevant data [...]

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The Coming Insurance State

Graham Sax — Tue, 11 Feb 2025 15:00:59 +0000

50 billion dollars. That is 50,000 million dollars. I like to use that analogy so that readers can understand the magnitude of a billion dollars, which is 1,000 million dollars. That is the estimate for what the devastation in southern California’s recent fires will ultimately cost private and public property owners. Insurance is one of [...]

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The Population Growth Recovery

Graham Sax — Mon, 03 Feb 2025 15:00:47 +0000

I have had a fascination with U.S. population numbers since I had to write a paper in high school about how population growth affects our economy. That was 55-plus years ago, and I have continued to watch the topic with great interest. Much has changed since the late 1960s, and sometimes demographers miss the boat [...]

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January 2025

Graham Sax — Wed, 22 Jan 2025 19:55:21 +0000

“The Index line falls back to its flattened state, as we witnessed a decline of 0.1% over last month. This was driven by some major drags on the algorithm, including continued profit-taking in the Industry Stocks metric as investors rotate out of that hot sector (-8.0%). Other downdrafts occurred in Housing Starts (-1.8%) and the [...]

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Tapping the Brakes

Graham Sax — Mon, 20 Jan 2025 15:00:03 +0000

I have been extremely bullish on the economy in general, and the construction economy in particular, for years now. Going back to pre-pandemic times, I have continued to preach that all is well with the construction economy, despite Covid and the high interest rates that followed. And I have written often about how the strength [...]

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The Office Comeback

Graham Sax — Fri, 03 Jan 2025 19:34:23 +0000

As I have written many times before, the last lingering symptom of the COVID-19 Pandemic is really its legacy: shifting the culture of work from the traditional office setting to working from home. But the statistics really don’t bear out this trend except in certain markets, and slowly but surely, the Return-To-Office (RTO) movement is [...]

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December 2024

Graham Sax — Sun, 22 Dec 2024 19:56:21 +0000

“In the latest update on the construction materials industry, the AVP Pulse Index experienced a jump of +1.0% for the period, reversing a recent trend of a flattening line in the Index. More importantly, there was an additional jump in the annual growth rate, as it increased 7.9% year-over-year, a more-than-doubling of the growth [...]

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Office to Residential Building Conversion Metrics

Graham Sax — Thu, 12 Dec 2024 19:38:37 +0000

Last summer, I wrote about the contraction in office space occupancy as the cultural shift of Work from Home tightens its grip on America’s office space industry, despite efforts by high-profile employers to corral their far-flung workforces and bring them back to the office in hopes of greater collaboration and efficiency. Some like J.P. Morgan [...]

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November 2024

Graham Sax — Tue, 03 Dec 2024 16:18:26 +0000

“Growth in the AVP Pulse Index slowed last month, down to +0.9% from +1.9% in the previous month, but still in an upward trajectory. A hard dip in the Dodge Momentum Index was offset by moderate gains in the Construction Confidence Index and the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. But the real driver is the [...]

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The Consumer Strengthens

Graham Sax — Tue, 03 Dec 2024 16:14:49 +0000

“It’s all over but the shouting.” The expression’s first use in print was in 1842, by Welsh sportswriter Charles James Apperley when reporting a late score in a sporting event. As so it is with the election, but as I have said many times before, election outcomes have near-zero impact on our businesses, and life [...]

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The Great Economic Disconnect

Graham Sax — Thu, 14 Nov 2024 19:42:06 +0000

As I sit down to write this, the presidential election has not taken place yet, but we can be assured of one thing: When you read this, we will have a new President-Elect. And that election will have very little effect on our companies, our customers, and our vendors, as daily life will go on, [...]

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October 2024

Graham Sax — Fri, 01 Nov 2024 20:18:32 +0000

The AVP Pulse Index rose 1.9% month-over-month, while increasing 6.2% year-over-year, and up 12.8% over the trailing 36 months. The ebbs and flows of the construction economy continue to be reflected in the ups and downs of the various components of the Pulse Index. Last month, both the Dodge Momentum Index and the Architecture Billings [...]

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A No Landing?

Graham Sax — Fri, 01 Nov 2024 20:15:26 +0000

You would have to be living under a rock not to see the tear the stock markets are on, and especially the construction materials subset of companies that supply aggregates, cement and ready mixed concrete; and that are all breaking through previous records to all-time highs. And jobs reports continue to be strong, and in [...]

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As Predicted: All the News is Good

Graham Sax — Fri, 11 Oct 2024 16:43:25 +0000

There is a series of metrics and indicators that point to continuing strength in the economy, with arrows from every imaginable direction pointing upward. Of course, leading off all the good news was the first interest rate cut by the Fed in four years. In September, the all-but-assured rate cut of 25 basis points was [...]

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September 2024

Graham Sax — Thu, 10 Oct 2024 22:24:21 +0000

In the latest update on the construction materials industry, the AVP Pulse Index experienced a noticeable drop of -0.4% for the month, punctuating the recent trend of a flattening line in the Index. Nevertheless, it continues to gain ground with steady, but not overly strong, year-over-year growth of 3.5%, down from 3.8% last quarter. Over [...]

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The Fed Goes Big

Graham Sax — Thu, 10 Oct 2024 20:08:11 +0000

That was the subject line on an end-of-day email from one of the major business media enterprises on a Wednesday afternoon in mid-September. It was the day the Fed held its regular meeting, and ended speculation as to whether the all-but-assured rate cut would be 25 basis points, or a more aggressive 50 points. And [...]

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The Fed Easing Is Already Impacting Housing

Graham Sax — Mon, 16 Sep 2024 20:06:03 +0000

Fed Chairman Jay Powell’s remarks at the very exclusive Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in August signaled the Fed’s forthcoming action to reduce rates, starting in September. But even before that, in a sign that homebuyers sensed what was coming, sales of new homes rose unexpectedly in July, following significant revisions in the previous month’s data. [...]

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August 2024

Graham Sax — Tue, 03 Sep 2024 20:01:48 +0000

The AVP Pulse Index increased 1.1% this month, after several smaller 0.1% gains in both June and July. The Index continues to steadily increase with a year-over-year growth of 3.3%, while up 11.2% over the last 36 months. Industry stocks cooled off this month as expected profit-taking occurred after substantial gains earlier this year. As [...]

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A Mid-Year Look at the Housing Market

Graham Sax — Tue, 03 Sep 2024 20:00:07 +0000

Interest rates have been elevated for a long time now, a stretch spanning the longest period for high interest rates that we can remember. Starting in March 2022, rates have ratcheted up to their current levels and have been there for 2½ years now. But as I have been predicting for some time, rates will [...]

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Some of the Experts Keep Getting it Wrong

Graham Sax — Tue, 20 Aug 2024 20:04:40 +0000

Some of the brightest minds in the economic research area are on Wall Street, working for either major investment banks or business news services with a global following. As recently as a couple of weeks ago, they were issuing research that warned of a slowdown coming in the economy: one began their note by saying [...]

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July 2024

Graham Sax — Wed, 31 Jul 2024 19:55:47 +0000

The Index increased +0.1% this month, following the same trajectory as last month’s +0.1% gain. More significantly, the +1.7% year-over-year increase and +10.1% over the last 36 months reflects a leveling off in the overall construction economy as the Fed’s tightening takes hold and the IIJA funds take longer than expected to work their way [...]

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The Bewildering Status of Non-Compete Clauses

Graham Sax — Wed, 31 Jul 2024 19:53:35 +0000

The use of non-compete clauses, or even entire agreements, are an integral part of the American employment landscape, especially at the C-Suite level, but often in middle management and sales positions as well. Our firm has a large and diverse client base, all focused in the construction materials industry, and the use of non-compete clauses [...]

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June 2024

Pierre Villere — Thu, 25 Jul 2024 20:37:20 +0000

In the latest update on the construction materials industry, the AVP Pulse Index experienced a modest increase of 0.1% for the month, but continues to gain ground with steady, but not overly strong, year-over-year growth of 3.8%. Over the past 36 months, the index increased 10.5%, indicating a slight slowdown in growth within the sector [...]

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More Pain in the Office Space Sector

Pierre Villere — Tue, 09 Jul 2024 20:38:06 +0000

I have written extensively about the one large hole in construction that has put a lid on a certain sector of concrete production, and more and more news continues to cause worry about its future: the office space industry. If there is one legacy from the pandemic that may linger for years to come, it [...]

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A Desk of Their Own

Pierre Villere — Fri, 28 Jun 2024 20:34:26 +0000

Last month, I wrote about the push across America of the “Return-To-Office” (RTO) movement, and how “Work-From-Home” is slowly becoming less tolerable to employers. As I related last month, Walmart is laying off hundreds of white-collar jobs, and forcing others to relocate, many to their headquarters town of Bentonville, Ark. Others, like JP Morgan Chase, [...]

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The Surprising Comeback of Retail

Pierre Villere — Tue, 18 Jun 2024 20:36:21 +0000

I live in suburbia. My town just outside of New Orleans looks like every other suburb in America, replete with good schools, a vibrant restaurant scene, and plenty of traffic at rush hour and during school times. My wife and I moved here 32 years ago, escaping the challenges of urban living—crime and potholes—for the [...]

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May 2024

Pierre Villere — Wed, 05 Jun 2024 15:21:34 +0000

The Index remains flat once again this month, with a small, +0.7% increase following last’s months small gain as well. More significantly, the +5.5% year-over-year increase and +10.7% over the last 36 months reflects a slowing in the overall construction economy as the Fed’s tightening takes hold in its fight against inflation. But a strong [...]

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A Return-to-Office is Coming

Pierre Villere — Wed, 29 May 2024 13:40:58 +0000

As I sit to write this month’s column, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has touched 40,000. Only the weeks ahead will determine if the average pushes through and trades up into the 40s permanently, or if profit-taking results in continued trading in the 39,000s, or even lower. Remember, this stands in stark contrast to the [...]

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April 2024

Pierre Villere — Tue, 14 May 2024 18:16:11 +0000

The Index is flat-to-slightly up this month, with a +1.1% increase over the previous month, but +6.9% year-over-year and +14.5% over the last 36 months. The big drivers were the Architectural Billings Index (+7.1%) and a whopping +10.7% for Housing Starts. Overall, the Index indicates construction remains steady, if not strong.

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The Other Shoe Drops

Pierre Villere — Wed, 08 May 2024 18:12:02 +0000

In the last half of April, there were a couple of seminal economic events that, taken together, mark an example of proverbial shoes dropping, and for the first time in years, marks a cautionary signal on the economy. The first shoe to drop was when Fed Chairman Jay Powell unexpectedly announced that firmer-than-expected inflation during [...]

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March 2024

Pierre Villere — Fri, 03 May 2024 19:18:25 +0000

The AVP Pulse Index experienced a modest decline of 0.7% for the month, although it experienced a strong year-over-year growth of 5.5%. Over the past 36 months the index has increased impressively by 13.7%, indicating sustained strength within the sector. Notably, industry stocks continue to hit all-time highs, underlining persistent optimism regarding future industry performance, and this [...]

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Wait! Stop the Presses!

Pierre Villere — Thu, 02 May 2024 18:10:06 +0000

I have to start by explaining this headline for the younger readers who don’t remember the culture of the newspaper industry, which is now long gone. You see, newspapers in larger markets once printed multiple editions throughout the day, so that news could be as recent as three or four hours old. “Wait! Stop the [...]

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The Outlook For Housing Looks Promising This Year

Pierre Villere — Mon, 29 Apr 2024 15:24:23 +0000

All the arrows are pointing to an even stronger housing market in 2024 than many had expected, and this prospect is streaming through all manner of indicators, from builder confidence to buyer motivation. And this beyond the fact that interest rates have barely moved; the widespread enthusiasm is driven by the promise of three interest [...]

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Goofy Ideas

Pierre Villere — Tue, 16 Apr 2024 14:55:14 +0000

I have written in the past about Hans Christian Anderson’s famous folktale from the 1830s, “The Emperor’s New Clothes,” and some recent events prompt me to remind readers about this very instructive lesson in life. The story relates a tale of two swindlers who arrive at the capital city of an emperor who spends lavishly [...]

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Productivity Gains Will Drive Stock Markets Higher

Pierre Villere — Tue, 09 Apr 2024 15:22:31 +0000

I have developed a fascination with one of the biggest life-changing events that has enveloped our economy, and our lives, and offers infinite promise: A.I. As I have written in the past, I have witnessed three life-changing events in my 50-plus-year career: the invention of the personal computer, the advent of cellular telephony and the [...]

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The Overlooked Gift to Our Economy

Pierre Villere — Mon, 01 Apr 2024 15:02:51 +0000

Just a couple of months ago, I wrote about the outlook for a strong economy for the foreseeable future, and I cited the confluence of events that is apparent around us: Inflation that is falling, the outlook for interest rate cuts later this year, and the robust performance of the stock markets that is bolstering everyone’s [...]

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February 2024

Pierre Villere — Tue, 27 Feb 2024 15:27:43 +0000

Summary The monthly index was up 1.2% for the month, 5.6% for the Trailing 12 Months (TTM), and 16.5% over the last 36 months. Contributing to this continued forward momentum was the very strong NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which was up 7.0% for the month and adding dramatically to the TTM with a 9.0% [...]

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Housing Stock Is Getting Older

Pierre Villere — Tue, 27 Feb 2024 15:19:37 +0000

A confluence of events around the housing market seems to portend that America’s shortfall in available homes will persist. Certainly, the higher interest rates of the past two years have made it harder to qualify for a mortgage, coupled with housing prices that just seem to continue to rise, even in the face of the [...]

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A Return to Population Growth

Pierre Villere — Tue, 13 Feb 2024 15:00:47 +0000

One of the key drivers to growth in our economy is sheer population growth, which by its very nature spurs household formations. But so many other corners of our economy benefit from population growth other than just the housing market. These new entrants to our economy have to buy goods and services, put gas in [...]

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January 2024

Pierre Villere — Fri, 02 Feb 2024 15:30:28 +0000

Summary The monthly Index further enforces what I said in our larger quarterly report, and alluded to in last month’s column in Rock Products. In both cases, I made the case for a bullish 2024 and beyond – and for the foreseeable future. This month’s metrics finally reflect that with a romping +2.4% increase in the [...]

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Housing Demand Has Jumped

Pierre Villere — Fri, 02 Feb 2024 15:15:13 +0000

The popular business press, including the cable news channels, are awash in reports that housing demand has already jumped on just the notion of rate cuts later this year, and the jump is expected to become a surge as I have been predicting. Remember, I have said for the last several months that when the [...]

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All Arrows Are Pointing to a Stronger Economy in 2024

Pierre Villere — Sun, 14 Jan 2024 14:57:50 +0000

There has been a confluence of events and happenings in the past few weeks that, when taken together, portend a much healthier new year in 2024 than anyone could have imagined as recently as just this past fall. First, news about inflation has surprised everyone, as we witnessed a sharp decline in the rate of [...]

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December 2023

Pierre Villere — Mon, 08 Jan 2024 15:25:47 +0000

Summary The final quarter of the year shows the Index up 0.6% for last month, and up 3.8% for the last 12 months. With our proprietary algorithm, a major upward pressure was exerted by the continued run-up in Industry Stock Prices, just as we witnessed last quarter. The publicly traded companies that make up [...]

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The Tide Has Turned

Pierre Villere — Mon, 08 Jan 2024 15:12:07 +0000

The Fed has said it: interest rates are coming down. Fed Chairman Jay Powell surprised markets in early December when he announced, somewhat unexpectedly, that the Fed was not planning to raise rates any further, and, in fact, was projecting three rate cuts in 2024 now that inflation has cooled. Surprisingly, the Fed’s quarterly economic [...]

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Our Industry Needs to Recommit to Blunting the Lumber Threat

Pierre Villere — Wed, 13 Dec 2023 14:40:47 +0000

I can tell you that of all the things I have aspired to in life, being a lumber dealer has never been one of them. Goodness, the fluctuations in prices is far worse than dispensing gasoline at a convenience store, and now thousands of lumber dealers have seen their standing inventory significantly devalued because of [...]

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Leverage Shifts to Employers

Pierre Villere — Tue, 12 Dec 2023 23:54:15 +0000

The Covid-19 pandemic was one of the most disruptive events of the last 100-plus years, on the level of two world wars, although it did not last as long. But like the world wars of the past century, when women were enlisted to work in factories in all manner of jobs previously held by men [...]

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Upending Another Giant Industry

Pierre Villere — Fri, 01 Dec 2023 23:56:40 +0000

There are tectonic plate shifts in our economy that have existed since the early ages of commerce, events so dramatic, they shake entire industries. An example would be how the advent of the Internet decimated the travel agency world. A couple of decades ago, trying to book airline tickets and hotel rooms was a laborious, [...]

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November 2023

Pierre Villere — Wed, 01 Nov 2023 13:31:15 +0000

November 2023 Chart: Summary: The AVP Pulse Index this month dropped 0.7% month-over-month, while increasing 2.9% year-over-year. The proprietary AVP Pulse Index – a joint effort between mergers and acquisition advisors Allen-Villere Partners, and Rock Products – illustrates the health of the industry in one single trend line, using relevant data that is updated monthly or quarterly. [...]

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The Burgeoning Field of Private Credit

Pierre Villere — Fri, 27 Oct 2023 23:59:53 +0000

New financing instruments have been invented since the time of the Phoenicians and the Médicis. The modern corporation was developed by English and Dutch trading companies in the 1600s, and some believe the genesis goes back as far as the 1300s in France. With that modern concept of multiple owners of a single entity, it [...]

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Who Is Snapping Up All The Houses?

Pierre Villere — Wed, 11 Oct 2023 10:29:42 +0000

We are never-ending in our firm’s quest for up-to-the-minute data that we can analyze and then draw conclusions on how that data drives the construction aggregate market, and every now and then, we get tossed a big surprise that we did not expect. Take a recent, seminal report from a major investment bank that conducted [...]

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October 2023

Pierre Villere — Sun, 01 Oct 2023 13:27:57 +0000

October 2023 Chart: Summary: The AVP Pulse Index this month dropped 1.4% month-over-month, while increasing 4.4% year-over-year. The proprietary AVP Pulse Index – a joint effort between mergers and acquisition advisors Allen-Villere Partners, and Rock Products – illustrates the health of the industry in one single trend line, using relevant data that is updated monthly or quarterly. “The [...]

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The Outlook for Interest Rates

Pierre Villere — Fri, 15 Sep 2023 10:51:31 +0000

As I have loudly predicted for many months now and wrote in this space again last month: There is no recession in the near term, and none in sight. While that is welcome news to all in our industry, whether it be the large multi-nationals with their all-important shareholder interests to consider, or the privately [...]

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September 2023

Pierre Villere — Fri, 01 Sep 2023 13:23:55 +0000

September 2023 Chart: Summary: The last quarter shows more of the same, and the construction trends continue to be steady with the AVP Pulse Index maintaining a very tight range. While the Index is down 1.1% from the prior quarter, it is still up a robust 7.1% year-over-year. A big driver of the movement last [...]

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The Insurance Challenge Is Here

Pierre Villere — Mon, 14 Aug 2023 13:30:12 +0000

As I travel around the country visiting with clients and making industry presentations, I hear the same from almost every producer about the challenges in their businesses: not enough drivers, fuel costs, and materials cost rising faster than they can pass them on among the most frequent. But there is another shoe about to drop [...]

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A Recession Isn’t Going to Happen

Pierre Villere — Tue, 08 Aug 2023 10:58:53 +0000

I speak at various industry conferences, sometimes as often as 10 times a year, and I also write this regular monthly column along with one for our sister publication, as well as occasional other articles. This gives me a great pulpit to occasionally espouse our firm’s go-against-the grain view of the general economy, and our [...]

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August 2023

Pierre Villere — Tue, 01 Aug 2023 13:20:16 +0000

August 2023 Chart: Summary: The AVP Pulse Index this month dropped 0.1% month-over-month, while increasing 6.3% year-over-year. The proprietary AVP Pulse Index – a joint effort between mergers and acquisition advisors Allen-Villere Partners, and Rock Products – illustrates the health of the industry in one single trend line, using relevant data that is updated monthly or quarterly. ““The AVP [...]

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The New Home Market Is Driving Housing Demand

Pierre Villere — Fri, 28 Jul 2023 14:06:44 +0000

Last month, I focused on the general housing inventory issue, which has gone from serious to critical in many markets. I opined that we won’t see any relief from these inventory challenges until interest rates start to fall, but there is more that comes into play beyond interest rates that will steady the housing market; [...]

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The Promise of Artificial Intelligence

Pierre Villere — Sat, 15 Jul 2023 11:22:54 +0000

It was sometime in the late 1970s, but I remember the conversation, even the restaurant, very well. I was in my late 20s, and one of my friends who had migrated to New York after college and found a solid footing in Wall Street investment banking was back in his hometown of New Orleans, where [...]

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July 2023

Pierre Villere — Sat, 01 Jul 2023 13:15:59 +0000

July 2023 Chart: Summary: The AVP Pulse Index this month rose 3.1% month-over-month, while increasing 7.1% year-over-year. The proprietary AVP Pulse Index – a joint effort between mergers and acquisition advisors Allen-Villere Partners, and Rock Products – illustrates the health of the industry in one single trend line, using relevant data that is updated monthly or quarterly. [...]

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The Home Inventory Issue is Critical

Pierre Villere — Tue, 13 Jun 2023 14:08:37 +0000

With the rifle-shot increase in interest rates over the last 18 months, catapulting from near zero for certain commercial credits to well over 6.5 percent for home mortgages, we are experiencing something we have not seen in decades: homeowners are sitting on their hands and staying put in their homes, corralled by 30-year fixed mortgage [...]

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June 2023

Pierre Villere — Thu, 01 Jun 2023 13:54:46 +0000

June 2023 Chart: Summary: In the last quarter, I have noted that the potential banking crisis is in the rear-view mirror and was a Chicken Little moment, coupled with rapidly decelerating inflation. My previous prediction that inflation could hit close to the Fed's target by late 2024 may even be sooner than that. In my [...]

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The Biggest Wealth Transfer in History

Pierre Villere — Thu, 01 Jun 2023 11:27:29 +0000

As we mull over the prospect of a recession, which I am still convinced will not happen, it is significant to note there are some financial forces at play over the next several years that will have a huge, and positive, impact on our economy. As I have said in prior columns and to state [...]

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The Changing Face of Retail

Pierre Villere — Wed, 10 May 2023 14:10:29 +0000

I love to fish. My wife and I are avid saltwater fishermen here in the waters of South Louisiana, and we spend our summers catching all manner of saltwater species, feeding ourselves and our employees, friends, and neighbors with the freshest of just-caught seafood. What has changed dramatically for me over the last 20 years [...]

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Housing Affordability is a Big Challenge

crashkillsvince — Mon, 08 May 2023 11:30:03 +0000

Last month, I wrote about how population growth is one of the biggest drivers of the entire housing market, including new and existing homes. Why? Because population growth helps drive housing formations. The majority of household formations occur when a group of young Millennials or Gen-Zers leave their parents’ basements and decide to room together, [...]

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May 2023

crashkillsvince — Mon, 01 May 2023 12:40:13 +0000

April 2023 Chart: Summary: The AVP Pulse Index for May – brought to you by Rock Products and Allen-Villere Partners – ticked up by a strong 1.0%, moving the Index up 1.4% year-over-year. “My position hasn’t changed; this is effectively a continuation of the flattening of the curve I have predicted until interest rates come down, and the bank lending environment [...]

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Are Regional Banks Safe?

crashkillsvince — Thu, 27 Apr 2023 14:15:19 +0000

Everyone has seen the iconic motion picture It’s a Wonderful Life starring Jimmy Stewart (“George Bailey”) and Donna Reed (“Mary”), larger-than-life Hollywood stars from a couple of generations ago. The movie centers around the doom surrounding the possible failure of George’s Building and Loan when Uncle Billy loses an $8,000 deposit, and the bank examiners [...]

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Housing Sentiment Drops, But What About the Growing Population?

crashkillsvince — Mon, 10 Apr 2023 11:32:52 +0000

For decades now, I have written columns and made industry presentations around the country that talk about the one, sure-fire driver of construction in America: population growth. Yes, the long, historical graph line has a sawtooth to it, but generally speaking, it is the population growth in our country that has driven construction growth, as [...]

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April 2023

crashkillsvince — Sat, 01 Apr 2023 12:29:46 +0000

April 2023 Chart: Summary: The AVP Pulse Index for April – brought to you by Rock Products and Allen-Villere Partners – ticked up slightly by +0.6%, maintaining the steady flattening observed a couple of months ago, and where we believe the index will remain for the foreseeable future. This increase reflects a healthy Construction Materials Industry and [...]

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A Peek Behind the Employment Curtain

crashkillsvince — Thu, 09 Mar 2023 11:35:43 +0000

Last month, I wrote about the stabilizing inventory issue across all goods, the unclogging of supply chains and the general normalization to pre-pandemic times. This is a welcome change for consumers that points to the supply chain recovery being firmly in place, with COVID receding into the rearview mirror. But given the headlines and sound [...]

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March 2023

crashkillsvince — Wed, 01 Mar 2023 11:52:12 +0000

March 2023 Chart: Summary: The AVP Pulse Index this month dropped 1.2% month-over-month, while increasing 2.4% year-over-year. The proprietary AVP Pulse Index – a joint effort between mergers and acquisition advisors Allen-Villere Partners, and Rock Products – illustrates the health of the industry in one single trend line, using relevant data that is updated monthly or quarterly. “Last quarter, I indicated a [...]

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Economic Strength in Construction Shows No End in Sight

crashkillsvince — Fri, 17 Feb 2023 14:17:53 +0000

A couple of issues ago, I wrote about how we are willing ourselves into a recession even as the economic indicators point in a different direction. In recent months, we have studied a large variety of economic indicators as we prepared to launch our AVP Pulse Index in cooperation with our sister publication, Rock Products. [...]

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Shortages Start to Ease

crashkillsvince — Thu, 09 Feb 2023 11:39:04 +0000

We have all suffered through the shortages and supply chain disruptions the pandemic thrust upon the global economy and threw manufacturing and retail inventories into a tizzy. But we are now witnessing the easing of shortages as ports become unclogged, factory workers return to their production jobs, and trucking and rail is stabilizing. For the [...]

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February 2023

crashkillsvince — Wed, 01 Feb 2023 12:22:10 +0000

Feb 2023 Chart: Summary: The AVP Pulse Index from Rock Products and Allen-Villere Partners this month indicates a slight dip for the first time in this three-month measurement period, reflecting a very small, 0.7% pullback. This is such a small amount, it has little impact on the construction economy and may have been related to weather and [...]

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How Commercial Office Space Vacancies are Affecting Tax Revenues

crashkillsvince — Sat, 14 Jan 2023 14:20:07 +0000

We all thought putting masks on for a few weeks would be a temporary blip, and that the scourge of Covid-19 would simply go away. Well, as we all know, it cut much deeper into the very fabric of our economy, affecting us in so many ways. First, PPP money and personal stimulus initiatives from [...]

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January 2023

crashkillsvince — Sun, 01 Jan 2023 13:21:46 +0000

Jan 2023 Chart: Summary: This month, the AVP Pulse Index – our new information chart that illustrates the health of the industry in one single trend line – reflects a slight, but continued, monthly move upwards that reinforces our view that the construction economy remains resilient in the face of continued headwinds in other parts [...]

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A Breakthrough That Will Change The Next Generation

crashkillsvince — Fri, 23 Dec 2022 11:41:34 +0000

As we begin 2023 and I mark the 50th year of my career, I have been reflecting on a lifetime I have lived witnessing dramatic innovation, and social and political change, as we all live in a very different world than I did as a young boy growing up in the Deep South of the [...]

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Willing Us Into Recession

crashkillsvince — Wed, 07 Dec 2022 14:35:29 +0000

I was driving to the airport at 5:15 a.m. one very recent morning to catch an early flight, and tuned into one of my favorite business radio channels for my usual dose of early news and data, and the outlook for the markets. Some financial pundit was being interviewed, giving all the reasons why the [...]

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Mixed News Continues to Confuse Economic Outlook

crashkillsvince — Fri, 02 Dec 2022 11:54:54 +0000

All manner of economic indicators once again have us puzzled as to what direction the economy is headed and far too many continue to raise doubts that we are headed for a recession. Yes, there are some headlines regarding layoffs in the tech industry that appears to be a re-balancing of employment numbers that have [...]

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December 2022

crashkillsvince — Thu, 01 Dec 2022 13:19:49 +0000

December 2022 Chart: Summary: The Index shows a remarkable upward trajectory since its bottom in the spring of 2020, during the height of the COVID lockdown. Since then, it has been on a march upward in a very steady fashion. There is a trend toward a flattening this past fall as the new home start [...]

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The Employment Pendulum Is Swinging The Other Way

crashkillsvince — Sat, 12 Nov 2022 14:39:22 +0000

Just a couple of months ago, I wrote about the ever-challenging employment picture; next to managing material costs and fuel prices, this is by far the biggest issue of daily operation that continues to be a thorn in the side of every concrete producer and contractor. But now, I am starting to see a swing [...]

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The Cooling Distribution Center Market

crashkillsvince — Wed, 09 Nov 2022 11:58:46 +0000

A couple of months ago, I wrote about the cooling housing market, observing that just as in every prior rising interest rate environment, housing sales have fallen, and new home starts are contracting. This has been true at least 10 times throughout my 50-year career, especially during the Paul Volker and Alan Greenspan stewardships of [...]

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A Look at the Strong Dollar

crashkillsvince — Sat, 01 Oct 2022 12:01:52 +0000

One of the economic bright spots that is being masked against the backdrop of the front-and-center economic news – inflation – and all the other looming issues like the threat of recession, is the silver lining of the strong U.S. dollar. While good for our economy and our individual pocketbooks, it has a profound effect [...]

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The Latest on Construction Industry Employment

crashkillsvince — Mon, 05 Sep 2022 14:42:20 +0000

Among the most frustrating aspects of life as we went through the pandemic, and which haunts us still today, is the employment picture. There is no minimizing the magnitude of the human tragedy, with an official tally of over 5.2 million hospital admissions and a stunning 1.04 million deaths; the sheer human loss is unspeakable. [...]

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How The Housing Slowdown Affects GDP

crashkillsvince — Mon, 29 Aug 2022 12:04:13 +0000

Look, there is no sugar-coating this, the housing market is really slowing down because of the action the Fed is taking to tame inflation. Interest rates are on the rise, and that has served to tamp down a tremendously overheated housing market that was starting to look eerily similar to the tulip mania craze of [...]

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The Sentiment Conundrum

crashkillsvince — Sun, 14 Aug 2022 14:43:49 +0000

Okay, class, what have you learned from my years of teaching and lecturing around our industry about sentiment? That’s right: sentiment is self-fulfilling. It is remarkably interesting to watch what has occurred since March, when inflation continued to be reported as being stubbornly persistent, and the Fed, like me, changed their view that the rise [...]

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Air Travel in Disrepair

crashkillsvince — Sat, 06 Aug 2022 12:06:45 +0000

The extraction and processing of construction aggregates is a complex business that requires extensive expertise at many levels, a reality that is lost on the average consumer watching a load of rock being discharged on a construction site. To accomplish the production of the most basic and critical of all building products requires an infrastructure [...]

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It Isn’t The Office… It’s The Commute

Pierre Villere — Mon, 18 Jul 2022 01:59:31 +0000

Construction activity follows the trends in construction types. We go through secular, cyclical changes in the types of construction that developers with the money chase. Over the years, there have been booms in hotel construction that dominated many larger markets, or big box retail, or specialty high-end shopping centers, and of course, office buildings of [...]

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Concrete Prices Demonstrate Stability

crashkillsvince — Fri, 08 Jul 2022 14:45:23 +0000

The sticker shock Americans are exhibiting in supermarkets, gas stations, and retail establishments is resounding throughout our economy, at a pace faster than I would have expected. The rampant inflation caused by the global supply/demand imbalance and related supply chain issues has ignited inflation from near zero to levels not seen since the 1980s. So [...]

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Stock Market Trips, But Fundamentals Remain Strong

Pierre Villere — Sat, 18 Jun 2022 01:55:18 +0000

I want to continue my thoughts from last month’s column, particularly against the backdrop of a stock market that is in full retreat since then. For all of us who watch our 401K and other non-retirement investment accounts, the last few weeks have been a nail-biter for some. Not me … I am not one [...]

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Economic Trends That Signal a Strong Construction Economy Ahead

crashkillsvince — Tue, 14 Jun 2022 14:47:05 +0000

I want to expand on my thinking in last month’s column, and start by dispelling what I am being asked about often these days: Will the construction economy stay strong? The answer is a resounding yes, and it will not experience a slowdown anytime soon. So there. There are too many positive indicators that signal [...]

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The Economy Rockets Up – Is a Slowdown Coming?

Pierre Villere — Wed, 18 May 2022 01:53:04 +0000

The answer to the headline above is … maybe. It’s like a rocket booster that fires off its launching pad and zooms up into space, but then starts to fall rapidly back to earth. I know, I know – Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos have figured out how to land them back on earth safely, [...]

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Making a Case for Reduced Inflation

crashkillsvince — Fri, 13 May 2022 14:47:58 +0000

We like to read the in-depth research on a wide range of topics that can affect the economic health of our industry, since it is our firm’s primary specialty. In the years I have been at the helm, I find the reports published by the global banks to be informative, and usually spot-on. They have [...]

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A Look at the Pressures on Our Booming Economy

crashkillsvince — Tue, 12 Apr 2022 14:50:02 +0000

As a firm, we bristle with optimism. Yes, sometimes it gets tempered when things aren’t going so well in our industry or the economy as a whole, but those setbacks tend to be short-lived. Of course, we missed the timing on what turned out to be a painfully long Great Recession, which will go down [...]

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The Housing Affordability Challenge

Pierre Villere — Fri, 18 Mar 2022 01:50:36 +0000

Last month, I wrote about a recent report issued by the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index, also known as the “HOI,” which showed that just 54.2% of new and existing homes sold between the beginning of October and end of December were affordable to families earning the U.S. median income of [...]

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Another Look at the Pandemic: How the Fed Stepped in to Save the Economy

crashkillsvince — Mon, 14 Mar 2022 14:51:31 +0000

It is always interesting to see how quickly our attention and focus can turn from one crisis to the next, with the former being forgotten and seen only in the rear-view mirror. Of course, the media gives us no choice, as it is their focus on the story of the moment that gets the ink. [...]

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Is The New Home Market Cooling?

Pierre Villere — Fri, 18 Feb 2022 01:44:44 +0000

I wrote recently about how the housing market continues to show strength, driven in part by buoyant builder sentiment, low inventories and high demand across all price points. That was back in the fall, and while all signs point to strong new home demand through this spring and summer, a new confluence of pressures could [...]

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How Increasing Wages Are Affecting Our Economy

crashkillsvince — Tue, 08 Feb 2022 14:55:46 +0000

It’s February, so some of the year-end economic metrics for 2021 are starting to be reported, and it is no surprise to see that wages took a big jump last year. Wage increases were fueled by the unexpected supply chain morass that the Covid-19 lockdown precipitated, and were further compounded by the amount of stimulus [...]

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The Return-To-Office Conundrum

Pierre Villere — Tue, 18 Jan 2022 01:31:29 +0000

I was in New York City during the first week of January, and the streets of Midtown Manhattan remain eerily quiet. But what was most telling was the view from my hotel room. I could enjoy the still-standing Christmas tree at Rockefeller Center, and the dusting of snow that covered the roof of St. Patrick’s [...]

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The Private Equity Juggernaut Will Plow Forward in 2022

Pierre Villere — Tue, 11 Jan 2022 19:05:06 +0000

All we have to do is look at our retirement accounts to know that a rising tide floats all boats, and 2021 was no exception. U.S. stocks finished a third consecutive year of big gains, with major indexes nearing performance records in 2021. Even with the recent turbulence from the Omicron coronavirus variant, the S&P [...]

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The Inflation Threat – More Concerning Than We Expected

Pierre Villere — Sat, 08 Jan 2022 21:03:25 +0000

I have written extensively in the past in this and our sister publication Concrete Products about how the Fed has balanced the economy over the past many years, maintaining low interest rates against the backdrop of strong employment numbers, which is a real parlor trick at a minimum. And more recently, I corrected myself and [...]

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We Have Our Infrastructure Bill – But Remember the Cautionary Tales

Pierre Villere — Sat, 11 Dec 2021 18:54:32 +0000

Finally. After months of wrangling and tortuous back-and forth, Congress finally passed our big infrastructure bill, and the President signed it. Thank goodness. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, also known as the IIJA, holds much promise for a nation that had been woefully short on maintaining its transportation, environmental and utility infrastructure. But there [...]

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All Fingers Keep Pointing to a Strong Housing Market

Pierre Villere — Wed, 08 Dec 2021 21:00:32 +0000

A measure we watch with great interest that speaks volumes about the outlook for the new home construction market is the Builder Sentiment Index tracked and published by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo, which is known as the Housing Market Index (HMI). I have written about this all-important indicator several [...]

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The Billionaires Tax Proposal

Pierre Villere — Thu, 11 Nov 2021 18:51:15 +0000

In theory, by the time you read this, we should have passed our infrastructure bill, which has been held hostage now for months by the four parties in Congress who are fighting each other to advance their respective agendas. Four parties? And you thought there were two? Try the Progressive Democrats, the Moderate Democrats, the [...]

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How the Supply Chain Forces Inflation

Pierre Villere — Mon, 08 Nov 2021 20:57:31 +0000

I have written in the past about how interest rates should remain steady for the foreseeable future, and even more recently, I have changed my tune and expressed concern about the inflation clouds that are forming on our economic horizon, and how this could affect the current – and very robust – recovery. Across almost [...]

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The Direction Of Interest Rates: I Stand Corrected

Pierre Villere — Mon, 11 Oct 2021 18:15:26 +0000

Last month, I wrote about how the Fed may start tapering the stimulus it has injected into the economy, drastically increasing liquidity against the eruption of the pandemic and the sudden recession it thrust upon the global economy, and the U.S. in particular. While the general tapering of the Fed stimulus won’t have any real [...]

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Here We Go Again

Pierre Villere — Fri, 08 Oct 2021 20:54:24 +0000

My lifelong home is New Orleans. Sixteen years ago this past August, Hurricane Katrina pummeled the city and the entire region, laying waste to the communities of Pass Christian, Waveland and Bay St. Louis on the Mississippi gulf coast, less than an hour east of the city. There the devastation was shocking, as literally nothing [...]

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The Fed May Scale Back Stimulus

Pierre Villere — Sat, 11 Sep 2021 18:12:52 +0000

The Federal Reserve Bank may very well have a more direct influence on our business lives than any other federal agency, and it is does so quietly in the background while wielding an enormous economic stick. It has a number of tools and mechanisms at its disposal to manage inflation and promote employment, the most [...]

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Job Growth Continues to Explode

Pierre Villere — Sat, 21 Aug 2021 20:49:01 +0000

An email appeared in my inbox from the homeowner’s association that runs our subdivision, and it was a forward from the trash hauling company that services our community. They announced they were suspending the collection of recycling until further notice due to an acute shortage of drivers and helpers, so they could focus on the [...]

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Mergers and Acquisitions Dominate the News

Pierre Villere — Sun, 15 Aug 2021 20:36:03 +0000

In the last couple of months, I have written about the housing boom, as well as an economy on fire, which coupled with the prospects for an infrastructure bill just adds optimism to the outlook for our industry. But as we look out toward the last remaining months of the year, it has been remarkable [...]

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The Economic Fun Is Here – Will Delta Derail It?

Pierre Villere — Wed, 11 Aug 2021 18:10:39 +0000

Various reports from our industry press mark a jump in ready mixed concrete production in April, which is just a thumbnail indicator of the health of the overall economy. Production was estimated at 35.6 million cubic yards, an astonishing 20 percent higher than in April 2020. Moreover, the estimated production nationally through April is 114.3 [...]

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An Overview Of The Labor Shortage

Pierre Villere — Sun, 11 Jul 2021 18:07:44 +0000

As we were going to press this month, all eyes in the human resources world were on the continuing labor shortages; a news story that went viral reported that a Burger King restaurant in Latrobe, Pa. had hung out a banner offering a $1,500 signing bonus, which was later clarified when management explained it was [...]

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The Economic Boom I Expected

Pierre Villere — Thu, 08 Jul 2021 20:33:25 +0000

Last month, I wrote about the housing boom that I had been predicting, and since then, the National Association of Realtors released a report stating that construction of new housing in the past 20 years fell 5.5 million units short of long-term historical levels and called for a “once-in-a-generation” policy response. But a booming housing [...]

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The Housing Boom I Expected

Pierre Villere — Thu, 08 Jul 2021 20:07:04 +0000

Back as far as 2014, as we were slowly and painfully climbing out of our economic lows, I was making my usual round of presentations to industry associations around the country, and I was gazing intently into my crystal ball and trying to understand the future of the housing market. As we all know, housing [...]

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No Worries – Interest Rates Won’t Rise Anytime Soon

Pierre Villere — Fri, 11 Jun 2021 18:04:29 +0000

There has been some recent panic in the financial and mortgage markets over the concern that interest rates seem to be headed up. This has happened suddenly and stands in contrast to what I have been saying from the beginning of the pandemic: interest rates will stay low for a very long time. So what [...]

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A New Gas Tax?

Pierre Villere — Fri, 14 May 2021 00:10:43 +0000

We all know there have repeated efforts for decades now to increase the federal gas tax, which has stood at 18.4 cents since 1993, almost 30 years without an increase. This is ridiculous. The fact is that in most states, toll roads are major transportation arteries for commuters, and typical automobile owners are charged hundreds [...]

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A Foreclosure Crisis? Not Likely

Pierre Villere — Thu, 13 May 2021 22:14:04 +0000

Chicken Little. It drives me crazy when down-in-the-mouth pundits try to scare the public with pronouncements about pending doom. As has been reported in the popular business press, that happened recently. The pronouncement came from no less than the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, a prominent federal agency charged with protecting the interests of consumers. In [...]

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A Swinging Pendulum: The Tax Reform Initiative That Lies Ahead

Pierre Villere — Wed, 14 Apr 2021 00:01:14 +0000

As we all know, terms like “disruptive technologies” and “disruptive innovation” have moved into the mainstream business lexicon, and mark the distinction between the way it has always been done, and the opportunity for change as a result of new technologies or processes. Disruptive technology is an innovation that significantly alters the way that consumers, [...]

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Well – Aren’t We Affluent?

Pierre Villere — Tue, 13 Apr 2021 22:10:42 +0000

It has been interesting to watch how we have changed as a society over the course of my lifetime, and I marvel at how the standard of living for America’s middle class has grown over my almost 70 years, in what I call a history of “affluence expansion.” Comparing life back then with the lifestyle [...]

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The Disruption of Innovation

Pierre Villere — Sat, 13 Mar 2021 23:56:56 +0000

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The Quest for Full Employment

Pierre Villere — Sat, 13 Mar 2021 21:52:26 +0000

I have long espoused that consumer sentiment is the most important driver in our economy. When sentiment is in the doldrums, the economy slows, and in contrast, when sentiment is buoyed by the average consumer feeling good about their jobs and their future, the economy expands. But there is another indicator that I have kept [...]

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Expect the economy to reach pre-pandemic levels this year

Pierre Villere — Sat, 13 Feb 2021 23:55:32 +0000

A couple of months ago, I wrote about my most recent crystal ball prognostications, and expected the decade of the 2020s to resemble the 1920s, a period of unprecedented growth and prosperity coming out of World War I and the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-19. I dubbed this economic expectation for the 2020s the “Roaring [...]

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How Population Growth Drives the Construction Economy

Pierre Villere — Sat, 13 Feb 2021 22:02:08 +0000

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Does the suburban shift mean the end of urban life? Not so fast

Pierre Villere — Wed, 13 Jan 2021 23:53:02 +0000

In one of the scenes in the iconic motion picture Casablanca, Captain Renault attempts to arrest the protagonist, Victor Lazlo, and in one the most famous lines in movie history, Humphrey Bogart’s character Rick Blaine pulls a gun on Renault and utters the famous words “Not so fast, Louie”… . Throughout my career, I have [...]

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The Promise of 2021

Pierre Villere — Wed, 13 Jan 2021 21:50:00 +0000

The Christmas holidays are behind us, and we rang in the New Year, leaving 2020 behind. Good riddance. Our family, and many around us, stayed reasonably healthy in 2020, although the pandemic is far from over. A few among our family and friends suffered COVID cases that were mild to moderate, but no one was [...]

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Roaring Twenties Redux?

Pierre Villere — Sun, 13 Dec 2020 23:04:27 +0000

Last month, I wrote about the lasting effects of Covid-19 long after a vaccine and herd immunity allow us to climb out of our world of lockdowns, quarantines, masking, and social distancing. I keep hearing about the “new normal,” and thought it would be interesting to review how the world emerged from the last great [...]

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How Covid-19 will affect us for the next few years

Pierre Villere — Sun, 13 Dec 2020 23:02:16 +0000

The harsh reality of Covid-19, and its grip on the planet, has finally settled in on me as scientists and infectious disease experts tell us the obvious: With winter coming, we are likely to witness another surge in the number of cases as colder weather forces us indoors, a breeding ground for the virus. Despite [...]

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An Election Surprise: The View of an Investor

Pierre Villere — Sun, 13 Dec 2020 21:47:03 +0000

Let me tell you about the profile of our client base, a cohort that can easily be described as a jeans-and-boots guy who drive a dusty pickup truck and has a copy of this publication on his dashboard. Ours is the world of the independent producer who crushes rock or mines sand and gravel. And [...]

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What History Can Teach Us About Pandemics

Pierre Villere — Fri, 13 Nov 2020 21:44:31 +0000

The COVID-19 pandemic just rolls on, continuing to disrupt our lives, and now much has been written about what we can expect in the months and years to come. If history is a harbinger of what lies ahead, there is much we can expect based on prior pandemics as the global population battles this scourge. [...]

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The red-hot housing market is leading the economic recovery

Pierre Villere — Tue, 13 Oct 2020 22:59:27 +0000

As I approach five decades of practicing in the investment banking world, one truism that has been consistent is that housing always leads us out of recessions. As a matter of fact, the housing industry serves as a source of strength during an economic recovery, as has been the case in nearly every recession over [...]

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Finally! The millennials unleash

Pierre Villere — Tue, 13 Oct 2020 22:58:06 +0000

I have been told in the past that I have a crystal ball. I don’t … like the Hans Christian Andersen fairy tale, “The Emperor’s New Clothes,” I just make sure to see the obvious, while others go through life with filtered views that obscure reality. The unleashed power of the millennials and the impact [...]

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Tax Law Changes and the Presidential Election

Pierre Villere — Tue, 13 Oct 2020 21:41:46 +0000

By the time you read this, we will be days away from electing our next president. And believe me, I learned in the 2016 election results that pollsters are missing their election calls more and more these days, as voters become harder to predict, and voter turnout is impossible to gauge. Of course, we all [...]

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Post-Pandemic

Pierre Villere — Sun, 13 Sep 2020 22:56:16 +0000

How business routines will change when we get to the other side Before the pandemic, my business routine was pretty steady: In the office on Monday handling client and new business calls, administrative details, and the general straightening up of desk and files. Most weeks, it would be off to the airport on Monday evening, [...]

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The Mixed News of Autumn

Pierre Villere — Sun, 13 Sep 2020 21:38:53 +0000

As we finish the third quarter of 2020, a year for the history books, I continue to puzzle over the dichotomy in the current American economy. In a career approaching five decades, all of it spent in the financial and deal world, I can’t figure out how so much prosperity and pain are co-existing side-by-side. [...]

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A Look Back at Our Interstate Highway System

Pierre Villere — Thu, 13 Aug 2020 21:36:34 +0000

Next year, the Eisenhower Interstate Highway System that crisscrosses our nation turns 65, and I recently learned a great deal about its history and how this remarkable system came to be, and what a major catalyst it became for the post-war aggregates industry. The world’s first limited-access highways, ones on which vehicles could only enter [...]

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Big demographic changes are coming

Pierre Villere — Mon, 13 Jul 2020 22:54:45 +0000

As they say, “this too shall pass,” and when we come out on the other side of current Covid-19 and social unrest stresses on our society, there are some tectonic demographic changes coming over the next decade that will dramatically change our business, and the economy as a whole. In 2019, the Census Bureau reported [...]

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A Change in the Future of Urban America

Pierre Villere — Mon, 13 Jul 2020 21:32:31 +0000

I have written in the recent past about what the COVID-19 pandemic has left permanently etched in our lives and culture, and as the scourge drags on through these summer months, it is starting to extend its cultural tentacles, reaching other areas of our lives and undoubtedly changing them forever. Two of the greatest truisms [...]

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The long shadow tariffs cast on our recovery

Pierre Villere — Sat, 13 Jun 2020 22:53:40 +0000

The headlights are pointed uphill. After weeks and months of an economic shutdown, artificially imposed by the necessity to quarantine and therefore close virtually all business activity, the U.S. and global economies are slowly re-awakening. Countries all over the world are taking phased approaches to re-opening, with constant monitoring of Covid-19 outbreaks to avoid spikes [...]

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The Confidence Game

Pierre Villere — Sat, 13 Jun 2020 22:52:19 +0000

My well-known optimism, even throughout the last Great Recession, has been shaken by the swift and sudden collapse of the global economy, including ours here in the U.S., in the face of the novel coronavirus also known as Covid-19. I am not any different than most consumers, except that I probably fall within the upper [...]

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What Lies Ahead: Lessons from the Hurricane Katrina Recovery

Pierre Villere — Sat, 13 Jun 2020 21:30:17 +0000

At this writing, the COVID-19 pandemic just drags on and on. At some point, I need to get back to work, I told myself, so I got on a plane recently for the first time since ConExpo-ConAgg in mid-March, flew to a major metropolitan market, and drove a couple of hours to a prospective buyer’s [...]

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The Longer This Goes On, The More It Will Hurt

Pierre Villere — Thu, 21 May 2020 21:24:47 +0000

Last month, I began this column by saying that I was speechless and in a state of shock. I still am. I opined this disruption “will all taper off by summer, and no doubt the unemployment rate will have exploded. GDP will be in negative territory for the third quarter, if not even the second [...]

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The World Turned Upside Down

Pierre Villere — Thu, 14 May 2020 17:46:53 +0000

I am speechless, and in a state of shock. I am reminded of the famous tune “The World Turned Upside Down,” an English ballad first published in the middle of the 1640s. According to American legend, the British army band under Lord Cornwallis played this tune when they surrendered after the Siege of Yorktown, devasted [...]

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A Black Swan event for sure

Pierre Villere — Wed, 13 May 2020 22:50:50 +0000

I hope you read my column last month; I worried about the events surrounding the unfolding coronavirus epidemic in Milan and northern Italy, and feared what might happen if it struck an American city. I described the epidemic as a Black Swan, a theory that refers to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and [...]

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A Black Swan Event?

Pierre Villere — Fri, 13 Mar 2020 22:49:09 +0000

For months now, I have been extolling the virtues of the U.S. economy, as well as the larger global markets, and touting the slow-but-steady strength of U.S. business and industry, especially the strong construction markets that drive volume in our concrete businesses. And as I have written so many times before, my philosophy is that [...]

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The Goodwill Conundrum

Pierre Villere — Fri, 13 Mar 2020 21:20:43 +0000

As we all know, the construction materials industry, which in part includes construction aggregates, ready-mixed concrete and concrete products, has been consolidating rapidly over the past three decades, and the pace of that consolidation shows no signs of abating anytime soon. So it is worth understanding how purchasers in our industry, usually large multi-nationals, treat [...]

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Let’s be more like Australia’s economy

Pierre Villere — Thu, 13 Feb 2020 22:47:27 +0000

This time last year, the business press was having a field day with their occasional Chicken Little prognostications that the economy was headed into recession, and the talking heads on the business news cable networks were the worst. Their bearish view, derived from the tiniest of economic indicators, threw the stock market into a tailspin [...]

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How Jobs Continue to Drive Our Economy

Pierre Villere — Thu, 13 Feb 2020 21:18:38 +0000

2020 is here, and now we are starting to read some of the statistics that are emerging as the various agencies of the federal government release accumulated data from all corners of our economy for last year, as well as the decade that just ended. One of the most significant is the December report from [...]

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Deserving Recognition

Pierre Villere — Tue, 14 Jan 2020 17:46:10 +0000

My late business partner Bill Allen was an institution in the ready mixed concrete industry, and I was fortunate to spend 15 years working beside him and learning from a master. Industry education was of utmost importance to Bill, and he felt that because of our firm’s success, we had an obligation to give back, [...]

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The stock market rocks, the 2020 economy rolls on

Pierre Villere — Mon, 13 Jan 2020 22:44:57 +0000

I can’t help but follow up on my column from a couple of months ago when I opined that a strong stock market was a harbinger of the economy, and what lies ahead. Now that 2019 and the decade it capped have come to an end, it’s worth reviewing the markets and what they foreshadow. [...]

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Time

Pierre Villere — Mon, 13 Jan 2020 21:17:39 +0000

It’s 2020. Goodness, where did the year go? I am positive the boxes of Christmas decorations that came out of the attic did not have any dust on them, as it seems they just went back up there weeks ago, not months. But most importantly, we stand on the starting line of the third decade [...]

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Will headwinds from the global economy affect us?

Pierre Villere — Fri, 13 Dec 2019 22:41:36 +0000

As this column was going to press in early November, the U.S. stock markets were breaking records and reaching all-time highs. Many in the economics and investing community were holding their breaths as we tip-toed through third-quarter earnings season for America’s publicly traded companies, big and small. The high-level concern going into earnings season was [...]

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The Coming Decade

Pierre Villere — Fri, 13 Dec 2019 21:13:40 +0000

In the mid-1990s, my wife and I attended a conference in Aspen, Colo., a voluntary effort on our part to hear one of the great thinkers and futurists of the last third of the 20th century who was shaking up politics and policy from Capitol Hill to Sacramento, and every place in between. Amory Lovins [...]

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No Relief in Sight for the Tough Labor Market

Pierre Villere — Sat, 16 Nov 2019 17:40:27 +0000

The future holds great promise, as technology continues to disrupt traditional norms and methods in the construction industry in general, and in the aggregates industry in particular. The future for driverless haul trucks, robotics that will replace traditional loaders, use of drones for multiple functions at quarries operations, and all manner of improvements in materials [...]

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The Wealth Gap Expands and Consumer Debt Pinches Housing

Pierre Villere — Sat, 16 Nov 2019 17:37:01 +0000

The expanding wealth gap in America may explain why Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have centered their presidential campaign messages on this topic. Indeed, after studying these metrics, I was surprised by what I found. Taking on a mortgage to buy a house that could appreciate, or borrowing for a college degree that should boost [...]

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Scared Foreign Buyers Are Affecting Major Housing Markets

Pierre Villere — Sat, 16 Nov 2019 17:32:44 +0000

As the real estate market collapsed in the fall of 2008, when the financial crisis pushed us over the edge into the Great Recession, a quiet but interesting phenomenon started occurring within a couple of years in the largest markets around the country. In big coastal markets such as New York, Miami and major cities [...]

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What Recession?

Pierre Villere — Sat, 16 Nov 2019 17:24:44 +0000

My wife and I were traveling recently, and we had made a reservation at a popular restaurant in the town where we were visiting. When we arrived promptly for our reservation time, the hostess politely told us it would be 15 to 20 minutes before we could be seated. We gladly sat at the bar, [...]

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A breath of fresh air from the National Association of Home Builders

Pierre Villere — Sat, 16 Nov 2019 17:08:59 +0000

The top line economic indicators are mixed these days, but we remain bullish at our firm about the future of the construction industry. My frustration is with the press, from CNBC to the major news networks on both the conservative and liberal sides of the political spectrum, with their need to fill the day with [...]

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A breath of fresh air from the National Association of Home Builders

Pierre Villere — Wed, 13 Nov 2019 22:39:22 +0000

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Lower interest rates cause a jump in mortgage refinancing

Pierre Villere — Mon, 14 Oct 2019 22:33:00 +0000

As I have been saying for months now, the fear of a stalling economy coupled with the stock market correction in the Fall of 2018 shook up Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his fellow Board Governors, and they made public pronouncements that the Fed would pause any rate hikes for the foreseeable future. Shortly [...]

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No Relief in Sight for the Tough Labor Market

Pierre Villere — Sun, 13 Oct 2019 21:08:04 +0000

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Lower interest rates cause a jump in mortgage refinancing

Pierre Villere — Sat, 14 Sep 2019 17:42:08 +0000

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What Recession?

Pierre Villere — Fri, 13 Sep 2019 22:35:34 +0000

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The Wealth Gap Expands and Consumer Debt Pinches Housing

Pierre Villere — Fri, 13 Sep 2019 21:06:13 +0000

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What does a record stock market signal for our economy?

Pierre Villere — Tue, 13 Aug 2019 22:27:56 +0000

In late June and early July, the stock market indexes all rallied to new, all-time highs, capped off by a surging Dow Jones Industrial Index that closed at a record high on the day before Independence Day. This came about as trader sentiment, whether it is the retail day trader or the institutional investor managing [...]

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Home Builder Confidence Surges

Pierre Villere — Tue, 13 Aug 2019 21:11:42 +0000

The month of October was a time of contrasting, and therefore conflicting, economic news that can be unsettling at times. The month started with a report from the Institute of Supply Management, indicating its manufacturing index fell to 47.8 in September, the lowest level since June 2009, from 49.1 the prior month. Readings below 50 [...]

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Scared Foreign Buyers Are Affecting Major Housing Markets

Pierre Villere — Tue, 13 Aug 2019 21:03:56 +0000

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Home Shoppers Are Increasingly Active

Pierre Villere — Sat, 13 Jul 2019 21:01:08 +0000

Last month, I wrote about the lack of impact that Millennials are having on the housing market, one of the reasons that new home starts have not returned to even their annual historical averages dating back to 1961. But the National Association of Home Builders recently published some research that is very telling about the [...]

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The Economic Expansion Is Breaking Into Record Territory

Pierre Villere — Wed, 19 Jun 2019 17:55:04 +0000

The three factors that tend to trip up an economic expansion: shocks, excesses, and central banks. The news that affects our industry continues to be mixed. I have written often about a tepid housing market for both new home starts and existing home sales, while trade disputes and political disharmony have stalled the nascent infrastructure [...]

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Millennials Are Still on the Housing Sidelines

Pierre Villere — Mon, 17 Jun 2019 20:53:26 +0000

After years of expectations that the housing market would come back to at least its average historical levels of annual starts, The Wall Street Journal recently conducted research that indicates the U.S. housing market is still waiting for a buying surge from the Millennial generation that entered the workforce during the recession, and some of [...]

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How minorities will influence the housing market over the next decade

Pierre Villere — Thu, 13 Jun 2019 22:22:59 +0000

The immigration debate continues to rage in Washington, D.C., with some in the Republican party now parting ways with President Trump on the issue of the 5 percent tariff on goods manufactured in Mexico. The move has roiled much of American industry because we are so reliant on Mexican imports, and likewise our own domestic [...]

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Why Sentiment Drives Our Entire Economy

Pierre Villere — Tue, 21 May 2019 20:50:59 +0000

Over the course of the last several months, I have been in discussions with the fine editors at several SEMCO Publishing titles, including this magazine. After a decade and a half of writing about the construction materials industry, I have expanded my editorial pursuits to include this excellent publication, as well as its sister title, [...]

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We Welcome Pierre Villere

Pierre Villere — Fri, 17 May 2019 20:30:32 +0000

This month, Rock Products is proud to announce a new monthly column, The Strategist, written by long-time industry veteran Pierre Villere. It will appear in the print edition of the magazine, in our e-newsletter and on our website. Pierre G. Villere is president and senior managing partner of Allen-Villere Partners – an investment-banking firm with a national [...]

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Surprise: The housing market looks rosier than expected for 2019

Pierre Villere — Mon, 13 May 2019 22:17:44 +0000

If you flip to my column this month in Rock Products, the sister publication to this magazine, you will read the same opening paragraph, more or less, so I thought I would repeat a brief background on how I wound up on the pages of these fine publications from SEMCO Publishing. Over the course of [...]

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This is Why It’s SO Hard to Find Skilled Labor

Pierre Villere — Tue, 19 Mar 2019 16:55:33 +0000

Confident consumers are a double-edged sword. I’ve written many times about consumer confidence, which is the backbone of our economy. American consumers represent 70% of annual gross domestic product (GDP). When they feel good, they spend more freely and propel growth. Nothing drives confidence like knowing your job, as well as that of your spouse, [...]

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Don’t Start Planning the Funeral for Brick-and-Mortar Retailers

Pierre Villere — Sat, 09 Feb 2019 22:43:52 +0000

Plenty of companies are building new stores and renovating existing locations. Brick-and-mortar retailers thrive by filling gaps not easily replaced by online suppliers: fresh food, need-it-now home-improvement and building supplies, and rural America. It’s no surprise that brick-and-mortar retailers are under pressure. Shopping malls, strip malls, big box chains… all are suffering thanks to the [...]

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A Pause for Interest Rate Increases?

Pierre Villere — Tue, 08 Jan 2019 23:26:18 +0000

With the threat of inflation lessening, concrete producers and contractors may get some relief this year. As we recover from ringing in the New Year, it’s important to note a few clouds on the horizon that didn’t exist a year – or even six months – ago. The rate of growth in the housing and [...]

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Guess Which Demographic Is Missing From the U.S. Employment Scene?

Pierre Villere — Tue, 27 Nov 2018 18:09:15 +0000

Our industry is missing out on a prime source of skilled labor, but it’s not entirely our fault. At an industry conference earlier this year, I sat in the conference center hallway to review afternoon breakout sessions that were starting in a few minutes. I saw one titled something like “Attracting and Retaining Millennials into [...]

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Moody’s Global Construction Outlook Confirms My Optimism

Pierre Villere — Wed, 07 Nov 2018 19:45:05 +0000

Vindication! The credit-ratings agency reiterates what I’ve been saying for two years. In my last column, I wrote how consumer confidence in the face of recent stock market swings bodes well for the U.S. economy. Now, Moody’s Investor Service has also spoken – and agrees. Moody’s analyses of opinions on everything from global outlooks to [...]

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News Flash: The Economy Isn’t Slowing Down

Pierre Villere — Mon, 15 Oct 2018 19:40:17 +0000

Construction landscape looks strong, and the current mood of positive sentiment with respect to the rest of the economy will keep driving us forward. Pessimism isn’t in my vocabulary, and so I really don’t like pessimists, those who run through the streets screaming doom and gloom, claiming the world is coming to an end. This [...]

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A New Trend in Employment Challenges – Quitting

Pierre Villere — Mon, 01 Oct 2018 16:55:31 +0000

Employment challenges are not limited to our industry, but appear across all corners of the greater construction economy. I am attending the National Ready Mixed Concrete Association’s ConcreteWorks 2018 in Washington, D.C., and after only one day here, our producer friends all answer the same way when I pose the question: “How is business?” While [...]

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Incomes Keep Rising

Pierre Villere — Wed, 19 Sep 2018 18:24:38 +0000

A robust economy will lead to wage inflation as our industry competes for workers, and that will fuel inflation, which fuels interest rate increases, which fuels economic slowdowns. A few columns ago, I wrote about the current labor shortages that all our clients are suffering, not to mention American industry as a whole. I worried [...]

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Key Metrics That are Positive for Housing

Pierre Villere — Thu, 06 Sep 2018 18:21:37 +0000

The new home construction cycle still has a long way to go. Welcome to my new home! As many of you know, I spent 13 years as a Contributing Editor at The Concrete Producer, which was just combined with Concrete Construction, and this is our first issue of the newly joined publications. I hope you [...]

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End of an Era: The Concrete Producer Moves On

Pierre Villere — Fri, 24 Aug 2018 16:13:53 +0000

Looking back on how old predictions panned out and looking forward to a new chapter. I have been up all night, tossing and turning, searching for the right words, and they couldn’t be simpler: thank you. This marks my last column for The Concrete Producer, which ceases publication as a stand-alone title with this last [...]

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Where Housing is the Strongest and What it Means to Our Economy

Pierre Villere — Fri, 27 Jul 2018 21:37:33 +0000

Concrete production is booming as housing market momentum continues to mount. I recently wrote about how housing starts hit a post-recession high, so I decided to drill down deeper and determine where this strength in starts is concentrated and what the new construction housing industry means to our economy. The data did not hold any [...]

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So We Added More Jobs Again Last Month, and the Unemployment Rate Went Up?

Pierre Villere — Fri, 13 Jul 2018 20:13:28 +0000

Strong employment means a strong economy, a key to further growth in ready-mixed concrete production. In yet another indicator of the amazing, underlying strength in our economy, the big news last week was that America added 213,000 jobs in June, well above economists’ consensus forecasts of 195,000. But the unemployment rate ticked up to 4% [...]

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Housing Starts Reach Post-Recession High

Pierre Villere — Fri, 06 Jul 2018 18:13:52 +0000

Increase in housing starts will fuel ready-mixed concrete production through 2020. In my last column, I cheered the news that homeowners’ equity in America’s inventory of owned residences hit an absolute, all-time high. And more importantly, I explained how this new record bolsters consumer sentiment, and therefore adds momentum to the overall economy. And now, [...]

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Homeowners’ Equity Reaches an All-Time High

Pierre Villere — Fri, 15 Jun 2018 16:21:23 +0000

Broadening equity values will spur many to seek to “trade up” to larger or newer homes, and this will have a positive impact on new housing starts, with the attendant impact on commercial construction as well. If there is one recurring theme in my columns over all these years, it’s the role that consumer sentiment [...]

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A Look at Some Surprising Housing Indicators

Pierre Villere — Tue, 29 May 2018 21:21:21 +0000

More housing starts will lead to an increase in ready-mixed concrete volume. We have been hearing about the downdrafts that have kept a lid on new housing starts and new home sales for a couple of years now: lack of lots, rising interest rates, labor shortages throughout all the trades, and the biggest downdraft of [...]

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A Goldilocks Employment Picture for Concrete Producers

Pierre Villere — Mon, 14 May 2018 15:49:00 +0000

Business is good for producers, but there's still a shortage of ready-mixed truck drivers. I just returned from an industry conference over the weekend, and in speaking with the many ready-mixed concrete producers present, I drew a mental mosaic about the state of our industry. Everyone is saying the same thing, “Business is very good, [...]

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Housing Industry Remains Strong Despite Infrastructure Plan Being Put on Hold

Pierre Villere — Fri, 27 Apr 2018 21:36:03 +0000

The ever-growing housing market is shoring up the recovery in ready-mixed concrete production, and this year is on track to be the best in terms of volume and pricing in over a decade. The first third of the year is behind us, and only now are we starting to see the construction “season” blooming around [...]

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How Sub-Prime Mortgages Are Making a Comeback

Pierre Villere — Tue, 17 Apr 2018 14:26:54 +0000

More mortgages will drive more housing starts, which is good news for concrete producers. The subprime mortgage debacle that precipitated the Great Recession in 2008 was one of the greatest financial bubbles since tulipmania hit Western Europe in the 1630s. An egregious culture had mortgage lenders plucking migrant workers out of fields in California’s Central [...]

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The Current Economic Boom and Facts About Our Economy

Pierre Villere — Mon, 26 Mar 2018 17:00:36 +0000

Concrete producers should be cautiously optimistic about where the industry is headed. There is not a single concrete producer I have spoken with who has complained that their business isn’t good. Except for the harsh and rainy weather conditions in most of the country during the first quarter, which has gotten the industry off to [...]

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Is Wage Growth About to Pressure Inflation?

Pierre Villere — Wed, 14 Mar 2018 15:10:16 +0000

Businesses in almost all parts of the country saw employers raise wages and expand benefit offerings to attract workers. I just returned from the co-located National Ready Mixed Concrete Association, National Stone, Sand & Gravel Association, and Portland Cement Association Annual Conventions in Houston which were held over the course of the past few days. [...]

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Do You Know Where Your Break-Even Point Is?

Pierre Villere — Fri, 23 Feb 2018 19:52:26 +0000

Calculating the Break-Even Point will help every concrete producer understand how much revenue the business needs to generate in order to be profitable. Back in 2007, I wrote a similar column for this publication on one of the questions I am asked most often by clients, by attendees at industry conferences, and through email inquiries: [...]

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Millennials Drive the Ready-Mixed Concrete Industry

Pierre Villere — Fri, 09 Feb 2018 23:01:31 +0000

A new report studies millennials and their habits. A few weeks back, I wrote about how the millennials are “stuck at home” and not venturing out as prior generations of Americans did, and therefore not forming new households. My premise was that millennials will eventually do their share in bolstering the still-recovering housing market. Well, [...]

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Home Builder Confidence Reaches an 18-Year High

Pierre Villere — Fri, 26 Jan 2018 19:48:25 +0000

New home construction is a key driver for the ready mixed concrete industry. I have preached for years now that sentiment is the biggest driver of our economy. Whether it is consumer confidence, corporate sentiment, or just the general mood throughout America, sentiment drives the ups and downs of the U.S. economy. So against the [...]

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Infrastructure Legislation Faces Hurdles

Pierre Villere — Fri, 12 Jan 2018 17:01:21 +0000

For the sake of our industry, we need to fully support any infrastructure bill that emerges from the Trump Administration and Congress. President Trump has finally achieved a legislative win, and a big one: the first major tax reform since 1986, and one that has the potential for making a significant impact on economic growth, [...]

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States Play the Key Role in GDP Growth

Pierre Villere — Thu, 28 Dec 2017 23:58:29 +0000

Report indicates that concrete producers will stay profitable for years to come. Anyone who follows the economy knows that Gross Domestic Product, or “GDP”, is the measure of our nation’s total output of goods and services; a key metric that is often quoted is that the American Consumer represents 70% of GDP. That has to [...]

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Where are the Top Housing Markets for 2018?

Pierre Villere — Fri, 15 Dec 2017 23:29:47 +0000

Projected market growth for next year bodes well for concrete producers. This time of the year, we see reams of stories and predictions on all manner of statistics that affect the construction industry, and implicitly, the impact that should have on concrete producers across the country in 2018. I have always felt that housing construction, [...]

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U.S. Economy Continues to Strengthen

Pierre Villere — Fri, 03 Nov 2017 17:18:43 +0000

Watch concrete production volumes grow toward a full recovery to pre-recession highs. By Pierre Villere The Great Recession was tough. Really tough. Some producers, large and small, did not make it through, and others were crippled for years as the lack of free cash flows stifled expansion, or even just the capital expenditures needed [...]

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The Impact of Apartment Housing on our Industry

Pierre Villere — Wed, 11 Oct 2017 16:55:08 +0000

The demand for apartments increases as the population expands. By Pierre Villere I am as guilty as anyone when it comes to studying new housing start statistics; like most of us, I look at single family home starts, and often consider that metric the benchmark by which the health of the total new home market [...]

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The Recovery Crisis in Puerto Rico

Pierre Villere — Tue, 26 Sep 2017 21:26:32 +0000

These types of major disasters lead to new beginnings. By Pierre Villere Adobe Stock/auntspray In my last column, I wrote about the long road ahead for Texas, Florida, and parts of the Southeast that were impacted by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Now, with a couple of weeks behind us and the local hurricane [...]

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Thoughts from a Hurricane Victim

Pierre Villere — Tue, 12 Sep 2017 21:31:11 +0000

Concrete producers in Florida and southeast Texas will be busy for years to come. By Pierre Villere Adobe/trongnguyen Geocolor Image of Hurricane Irma. Elements of this image furnished by NASA. With the flurry of images and tragic news that began with Hurricane Harvey, and were then followed just days later by the devastating [...]

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Consumer Debt Reaches All-time High

Pierre Villere — Thu, 24 Aug 2017 21:34:59 +0000

Leverage of any type can push producers to the edge when times get tough. By Pierre Villere When I was a kid growing up in New Orleans in the 1950s, our basic needs were all cared for within a few blocks of our Uptown home. Langenstein’s and Saladino’s grocery stores were within five blocks, and [...]

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Eliminating Tax Benefit may “Devastate” Producers

Pierre Villere — Thu, 03 Aug 2017 23:11:44 +0000

The White House is wary of repealing the interest expense deduction, but hasn’t drawn a hard line. By Pierre Villere As I watch the current situation in Washington, D.C., I am reminded of the line from Alice in Wonderland: “It just gets curiouser and curiouser." While the machinations in the Trump White House and Congress [...]

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Lack of Lots Hinder Robust Housing Recovery

Pierre Villere — Wed, 26 Jul 2017 22:51:57 +0000

This is one aspect of the slow housing recovery that needs fixing. By Pierre Villere Two weeks ago I wrote about the perfect storm facing the housing market, where a rare combination of tight inventory is pushing up prices against a backdrop of high demand. I thought it was worth spending a little more time [...]

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Housing’s Perfect Storm

Pierre Villere — Mon, 10 Jul 2017 22:48:43 +0000

A confluence of events is coming together, weighing on homebuyers across the country. By Pierre Villere Many of us remember the George Clooney movie titled “The Perfect Storm,” which was a story of a fishing crew caught in a unique weather phenomena, and who all ultimately perished. In October 1991, a nor’easter absorbed Hurricane Grace, [...]

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Risky Mortgages Make a Comeback

Pierre Villere — Wed, 21 Jun 2017 18:41:33 +0000

Let’s hope the industry can police itself and avoid a repeat of the 2008 subprime meltdown. By Pierre Villere As we all know, mortgage qualification is a key element in moving new houses, but after the financial crisis in 2008 that was caused by the meltdown of the subprime mortgage market, today’s much tougher standards [...]

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Breaking News: Trump Reveals Infrastructure Details

Pierre Villere — Wed, 24 May 2017 23:05:45 +0000

A big infrastructure bill has a high chance of passing, a huge shot in the arm for the ready-mix concrete industry. By Pierre Villere President Trump’s budget has just been revealed, and for the first time, we are seeing the details of his long-awaited Trillion Dollar Infrastructure campaign promise. And while the Democrats in Congress [...]

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Trump has it Wrong

Pierre Villere — Tue, 09 May 2017 21:37:54 +0000

The presidential candidate and others have no reason to be so gloomy. By Pierre Villere In early April, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump pronounced that we are heading for a “very massive recession,” warned that we are currently in “a financial bubble,” and said that “it’s a terrible time right now” to invest in stocks. [...]

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What Trump’s 15% Tax Rate Means for Producers

Pierre Villere — Wed, 26 Apr 2017 18:11:13 +0000

This could be a real windfall for the typical concrete producer who is an independent business. By Pierre Villere As President Trump approaches the 100-day mark of his presidency, there is no doubt he has had a bumpy start. While he has issued a number of executive orders that fulfill various campaign promises, his initiatives [...]

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Job Market gets Tighter and Tighter

Pierre Villere — Wed, 12 Apr 2017 22:58:40 +0000

Producers report shortages of drivers and other personnel as the key selling season nears. By Pierre Villere The U.S. Labor Department's April 7 employment report left me befuddled. The consensus estimate from the large group of economists who publish their monthly employment predictions was 175,000 new jobs were created, and the real number came in [...]

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Infrastructure Price Tag: $4.59 Trillion

Pierre Villere — Wed, 22 Mar 2017 23:00:40 +0000

So $1 trillion isn't enough to spend on our infrastructure after all. By Pierre Villere As many of you know, I made a presentation in the CC Live booth at the World of Concrete earlier this year, and my thesis was defining the extent of deferred infrastructure investment that exists in America, well beyond streets, [...]

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Home Ownership Makes a Comeback

Pierre Villere — Fri, 03 Mar 2017 16:41:45 +0000

New home construction is the main driver of ancillary uses of concrete. I’VE BEEN PREDICTING this since the depths of the recession: When the power of the Millennials is finally unleashed, and they begin to form households, watch the impact they will have on housing, and particularly the new home market. Why? Millennials have been [...]

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A New Peak for Housing Prices

Pierre Villere — Fri, 03 Feb 2017 17:33:33 +0000

Housing has recovered from the boom-bust cycle that began a dozen years ago when values peaked in July 2006. A NEW MILESTONE has been reached in a widely reported measure of housing prices, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Their data shows that for November 2016, home [...]

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What do 1,000 Homes mean to our Economy?

Pierre Villere — Thu, 12 Jan 2017 23:15:54 +0000

The construction industry has not enjoyed the recovery that other major sectors have experienced. By Pierre Villere I've said for a couple of years now that the many economists who track gross domestic product expansion since the depths of the Great Recession are all quick to point out at least one factor in why our [...]

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Infrastructure Finally Gets Attention it Deserves

Pierre Villere — Wed, 09 Nov 2016 23:09:51 +0000

President-elect Donald Trump said he would spend twice as much as Hillary Clinton on our crumbling infrastructure. By Pierre Villere We have a new president-elect. After a bruising, and at times off-putting, campaign, Donald Trump has crossed the finish line, and we breathe a sigh of relief that a shrill campaign season has come to [...]

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Infrastructure Finally Gets Attention it Deserves

Pierre Villere — Thu, 03 Nov 2016 19:42:03 +0000

President-elect Donald Trump said he would spend twice as much as Hillary Clinton on our crumbling infrastructure. We have a new president-elect. After a bruising, and at times off-putting, campaign, Donald Trump has crossed the finish line, and we breathe a sigh of relief that a shrill campaign season has come to an end. And [...]

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Finally, Consumers see an Increase in Wages

Pierre Villere — Sat, 03 Sep 2016 17:25:48 +0000

Gains bode well for the construction industry and concrete producers. In early September, the U. S. Census Bureau finally confirmed what I've suspected for some time now: The average consumer was starting to benefit from wage increases for the first time since the onset of the Great Recession that was triggered by the financial crisis [...]

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Trump has it Wrong

Pierre Villere — Sat, 21 May 2016 01:26:11 +0000

The presidential candidate and others have no reason to be so gloomy. IN EARLY APRIL, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump pronounced that we are heading for a “very massive recession,” warned that we are currently in “a financial bubble,” and said that “it’s a terrible time right now” to invest in stocks. These comments come [...]

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Sally will Save Us

Pierre Villere — Fri, 05 Feb 2016 18:29:18 +0000

The Millennials promise to jumpstart housing and the overall economy. ONE TRUISM THAT came under the magnifying glass during the Great Recession in the construction industry is the stark relationship between jobs, household formations, and housing. While milder recessions have demonstrated the interaction of these three metrics, the Great Recession’s severity brought these interrelationships into [...]

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Construction Hiring Looks Strong

Pierre Villere — Wed, 03 Feb 2016 19:47:33 +0000

Companies are increasing pay and benefits to retain and recruit qualified staff. To retain or recruit qualified staff, 49% of construction companies have increased base pay rates, 30% are providing incentives and/or bonuses, and 23% have increased contributions to employee benefits. Credit: Morley Construction Against quite a shaky stock market that suffered havoc [...]

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Finally, a Recovery!

Pierre Villere — Thu, 05 Nov 2015 18:12:10 +0000

Profitability has recovered from recession lows, but volume remains at 1996 levels. FOR THE PAST 10 years, I’ve written about the results of the NRMCA’s Industry Data Survey, the most important tool any concrete producer can utilize to benchmark his or her company against industry peers. I’ve described the survey’s value, the distinctions between the [...]

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Tepid at Best…

Pierre Villere — Sat, 12 Sep 2015 19:32:48 +0000

Correctly guessing six out of eight predictions over 10 years ain’t bad. LET’S FACE IT: The recovery in the construction materials industry has been tepid at best. Many of us would have guessed two years ago that we would be much farther along than we are today, and we predicted as much once again at [...]

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Happy Anniversary

Pierre Villere — Sun, 12 Jul 2015 19:25:31 +0000

Correctly guessing six out of eight predictions over 10 years ain’t bad. TEN YEARS. WOW. is marks my 10th anniversary as a regular contributor to THE CONCRETE PRODUCER. Our managing editor tells me I am the longest- running contributor to the publication, except for a couple of the in-house contributors at Hanley Wood. is is [...]

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How Consumer Sentiment will Shape 2015

Pierre Villere — Thu, 12 Mar 2015 19:17:26 +0000

Many factors come together to make the new year bright. LAST MONTH, I wrote about the easing of mortgage qualification standards and the impact this huge shift in the mortgage industry will have on housing. Now, there are signs that consumer confidence has been increasing, an indicator that bodes well for all segments of our [...]

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Fighting in the Trenches

Pierre Villere — Mon, 12 Jan 2015 19:09:16 +0000

2014 NRMCA Industry Data Survey reveals slow progress toward protability. IN WORLD WAR I, the two armies engaged in bitter combat on the Western Front, marking the first time where a stalemate occurred so early; a series of trenches were built by both armies as each side dug into its positions. Progress was measured in [...]

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A Tectonic Shift in the Mortgage Market

Pierre Villere — Wed, 12 Nov 2014 18:55:24 +0000

The U.S. went too far in constraining lending. IN THE LAST ISSUE, I wrote about the state of our industry, and opined on volume recoveries, labor and looming materials shortages, and the return to growth in infrastructure spending. But in October, a major policy shift in mortgage lending standards went into effect, which should add [...]

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The State of the Ready Mixed Industry

Pierre Villere — Thu, 25 Sep 2014 22:54:41 +0000

Ready-mix demand will increase to 450 million cubic yards by 2018. By Pierre Villere The Wells Group Ready-mixed concrete is discharged into a truck at a Wells Group plant. The producer is based in West Liberty, Ky. After almost two decades as an adviser to the ready-mixed concrete and related construction materials industries, [...]

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The State of the Ready-Mixed Industry

Pierre Villere — Fri, 12 Sep 2014 18:47:14 +0000

Ready-mix demand will increase to 450 million cubic yards by 2018. AFTER ALMOST two decades as an adviser to the readymixed concrete and related construction materials industries, I can’t think of any annual event that I look forward to more than the TCP Survey which is featured in this issue. Over the years my editors [...]

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The Current State of Housing

Pierre Villere — Sat, 12 Jul 2014 18:28:15 +0000

Much of the economy is recovering, but housing starts face headwinds. AFTER YET ANOTHER slow spring this year, with our industry once again heckled by an improbably wet and cold start to the ready-mixed concrete selling season, we have learned from a recent National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) report that multiple factors continue to [...]

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A Jump In Growth

Pierre Villere — Fri, 07 Mar 2014 19:16:49 +0000

Construction activity should catch up with the rest of the economy this year. A series of interesting year-end economic reports caught my eye recently. The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in two years, as a recovery that had otherwise drifted sideways builds up a head of steam going into the new year. In [...]

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This Bull is on a Run

Pierre Villere — Wed, 12 Feb 2014 21:34:28 +0000

The construction sector’s performance in 2013 shows that things are improving. I HAVE BEEN shamelessly bullish on the construction industry for some time now and little has changed my view of the future. Interestingly, much of what I predicted for 2013 came true. I said at the time, “…the recovery is solidly at our doorstep. [...]

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A Look Back at 2013, and Ahead to 2014

Pierre Villere — Tue, 07 Jan 2014 22:46:41 +0000

The construction sector’s performance in 2013 shows that things are improving. By Pierre Villere I have been shamelessly bullish on the constr uction industry for some time now and little has changed my view of the future. Interestingly, much of what I predicted for 2013 came true. I said at the time, “…the recovery is [...]

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A Pension Plan Solution?

Pierre Villere — Sun, 09 Jun 2013 22:53:12 +0000

Your retirement security could depend on pension reform. CONCRETE PRODUCERS operating as union shops across America are well-versed in the potential liability of underfunded multiemployer pension plans. Unions and employers have begun a bilateral effort focused on shoring up about 10% of the roughly 1450 multiemployer pension plans in the country. The plans, funded by [...]

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What Lies Ahead

Pierre Villere — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 19:11:14 +0000

Our industry’s recovery will be very robust. For only the second time in 15 years, I was unable to attend the World of Concrete this year. So here are some thoughts about our firm’s outlook I shared in a video which was presented at the show. The construction industry, and construction materials in particular, have [...]

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Shoulder to the Wheel

Pierre Villere — Sun, 30 Dec 2012 22:37:15 +0000

Leaders have no choice but to reach agreement on the Fiscal Cliff. The morning after the election last month, someone asked me how it would affect our industry? I answered, “We are all going to do what we would have done anyway, regardless of the outcome of the election, which is to put our shoulder [...]

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Our Startling Federal Budget

Pierre Villere — Wed, 24 Oct 2012 17:30:37 +0000

Infrastructure spending helps the nation, the middle class, and the construction industry. When I was a kid, an older neighborhood teenager delivering the afternoon newspaper flung it and hit my head so hard, I saw stars. I angrily pulled the paper open, only to see a headline that announced that President Kennedy’s federal budget would [...]

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On the Upswing

Pierre Villere — Sat, 18 Aug 2012 19:16:34 +0000

Construction and housing will lead the nation back to prosperity. I have spent the last couple of columns talking about the mistakes we made in the last boom, and how to avoid them as we stand on the edge of the recovery. But while we weren’t looking the last several weeks, the housing market has [...]

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The Emperor’s New Clothes

Pierre Villere — Sun, 22 Apr 2012 18:55:01 +0000

Here are three lessons the recession has taught us. In the last issue, I suggested that a key to our success in the forthcoming recovery is making intelligent use of our mistakes. I have been thinking about the errors of our collective ways, industrywide, and what we should learn from them. I kept coming back [...]

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I Hate it When I’m Wrong

Pierre Villere — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 19:54:58 +0000

The housing collapse’s serverity and recession escaped many forecasters. I have a wonderful expression, printed on an 8 1/2- x 11-inch glossy piece of paper, matted, framed, and hanging in my office. It says, “Success is the intelligent use of mistakes.” It was a gift from my wife, who gave it to me after I [...]

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Housing: How bad for how Long?

Pierre Villere — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 19:31:11 +0000

Psyches must heal before housing makes a comeback. For a couple of years now, I have been telling our clients that we will see a recovery in the housing market only when housing prices stop falling. Housing starts drive most other forms of new construction, and new construction drives concrete volumes. Well, this economic downturn [...]

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Housing: How Bad for How Long?

Pierre Villere — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 23:13:59 +0000

Psyches must heal before housing makes a comeback. By Pierre Villere For a couple of years now, I have been telling our clients that we will see a recovery in the housing market only when housing prices stop falling. Housing starts drive most other forms of new construction, and new construction drives concrete volumes. Well, [...]

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Can You Spare a Dime?

Pierre Villere — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 00:11:38 +0000

Producers with strong balance sheets can secure loans. Much of this summer was a roller coaster of uncertainty for the global economy and construction materials in particular. This has added more variability to securing financing from banks. The contentious debt ceiling debat has scared consumers who have shut their wallets again. This has slowed the [...]

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M&A on the Mend

Pierre Villere — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 23:58:11 +0000

Mergers and acquisitions have slowed with the economy, but have not entirely gone away. It has been a long time since I have written about buying and selling companies since the economy began slowing in 2007. Here is an update on mergers and acquisitions (M&A). First, activity has not been as active as the prior [...]

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The Housing Recovery: Is this the Year?

Pierre Villere — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 19:41:29 +0000

More cash sales means stability has returned. Over the co urse of the past two issues, I have written about the promising indicators in both the multifamily and vacation home markets. Given that housing accounts for one third of the volume in our industry, it is useful to review the overall housing market, and ask [...]

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Escaping the Housing Slump

Pierre Villere — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 19:47:29 +0000

The vacation home market makes an unexpected recovery. In January, I focused on multifamily housing, particularly the rental market, as an emerging bright spot in what has been a sluggish housing market for four years. Now it appears we will progress toward more reasonable start levels in 2011. One surprising trend has been an unpredicted [...]

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Space for Rent

Pierre Villere — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 19:58:27 +0000

Rental units will drive the housing recovery. LAST YEAR, I wrote about the long-awaited housing recovery and made the argument that sheer population growth will drive housing demand. We will need 1.5 million new houses per year just to keep up with this growth. But the homeowner’s market, driven by subprime lending where almost anyone [...]

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Speak Now

Pierre Villere — Wed, 24 Nov 2010 17:28:30 +0000

The midterm elections could mean growth for our industry. AS I WRITE THIS, our country is winding down after a heated election season, and Washington D.C. now looks like a very different place. Th e Republican Party has gained control of the House of Representatives, with Democrats retaining a majority in the Senate, after the [...]

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Time to Cash Out

Pierre Villere — Sun, 24 Oct 2010 17:51:23 +0000

Corporate America, not housing, will lead the recovery. THE FALL conference season is in full swing, and I have been traveling the country to talk about the state of our industry in between client obligations. I get large and interested audiences when I pose my thoughts on how our industry is doing, and when this [...]

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Hardly a Depression

Pierre Villere — Tue, 24 Aug 2010 18:04:48 +0000

AS I TRAVEL AROUND the country and talk with people across the industry, from producers to material suppliers to contractors, I have come to learn that pessimism has become pervasive. People will believe just about anything as long as it is negative. Earlier this summer, after a jobs report showed 83,000 new privatesector jobs were [...]

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The Bullwhip Effect

Pierre Villere — Sat, 24 Apr 2010 18:41:48 +0000

There are strong signs companies are replacing inventories, just what the economy needs to recover. Back in September, I wrote that businesses were no longer reducing stockpiles as aggressively as they had been earlier in 2009, and inventory growth could contribute 1.3 points to the real GDP growth rate in 2010. Some readers scratched their [...]

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Going Vertical

Pierre Villere — Sun, 24 Jan 2010 04:48:10 +0000

A new type of business strategy is taking hold on this economy. One interesting trend I have been watching during this recession has been corporate America’s renewed commitment to consolidation. Rather than buying competitors to grow, executives are executing the rebirth of vertical integration. This business strategy had fallen by the wayside as disintegration came [...]

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The History of Recoveries

Pierre Villere — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 04:46:06 +0000

This recovery's strength may surprise you. The Current Great Recession, as some call it, has destroyed confidence as much as it has jobs and wealth. From our peak, inflationadjusted GDP has fallen by 3.9%. The mild downturns of 1990-91 and 2001, each just eight months long, brought losses to the real GDP of just 1.4% [...]

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Growth Spurt?

Pierre Villere — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 04:44:42 +0000

We may experience a stronger recovery than expected. It ’s no secret that we are long-term bulls when it comes to this industry. And while the current times are the most difficult in memory, and we think the construction materials industry will experience a slow and gradual recovery, there is a growing sense that we [...]

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Survival

Pierre Villere — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 04:34:22 +0000

We will begin a slow turn toward recovery in 2010. In revIewIng thIS year’S tCP 100, I am struck by the stability of the players and how they rank. This resilience reminds me of a recent trip my wife and I took to Mo-rocco and the fascinating city of Mar-rakesh. It’s a modern metropolis that [...]

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Revisiting the Stimulus

Pierre Villere — Sun, 24 May 2009 04:31:50 +0000

Construction industry unemployment has passed 19%. In FEBRUARY, I speculated on the legislation that was winding its way through Congress and the administration. That bill has ultimately become our own version of the New Deal. Dubbed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, its name far less inspiring than FDR’s moniker for his famous program that [...]

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The Loan Default Shakedown

Pierre Villere — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 04:29:37 +0000

Here are some pointers for wrestling with your bank. L ast month, I wrote about the credit market meltdown and how badly it has impacted large and small producers. But another disturbing trend we have witnessed the last six months is that of lenders putting borrowers into technical default over a breach of loan covenant [...]

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Where to Find Credit Relief

Pierre Villere — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 04:27:56 +0000

Credit is available if you look hard enough. I read something recently that speaks volumes about what has happened during this financial meltdown. AutoNation, the country’s largest chain of auto dealerships, originated nine auto loans through GMAC in December, compared with 1527 loans during the same month in 2007. The number of Chrysler Financial loans [...]

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Is Infrastructure Spending the Answer?

Pierre Villere — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 04:25:48 +0000

As a college student in the early 1970s, I marveled as the nation’s interstate highway system was being completed, less than 20 years after President Eisenhower kicked off the most ambitious highway construction project in history. In those days, my holiday and summer vacation drives to and from college in Washington, D.C. from my hometown [...]

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Finding the Right Balance

Pierre Villere — Sat, 24 Jan 2009 04:23:43 +0000

The cement industry is adding capacity in a poor market. I was recently in the office of a ready-mixed concrete producer, which had been a player in what was once a red-hot housing market. “Four years ago, I drove to work with a knot in my stomach, wondering which customer was going to be mad [...]

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Wall Street: Changed Forever

Pierre Villere — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 04:22:15 +0000

Last month, I wrote that we could see a recovery in the construction materials industry by late 2009. But since then, the final of many shoes may have dropped from the centipede that was known as Wall Street. I wonder now if we will see a turn in 2009 at all. Wall Street as we [...]

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My Economic Outlook Redux

Pierre Villere — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 04:19:15 +0000

Ready-mix operation may total less than 375 million yards in 2008. I wrote about the subprime mortgage debacle last year and what it meant for both housing and the broader construction economy. As we close the books on 2008, most in our industry would like to wake up from what has been a bad dream [...]

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Revisiting My “No Recession” Call

Pierre Villere — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 04:12:41 +0000

Several scenarios come to mind for 2009 In February, I wrote a column titled “Calm Down: No Recession.” While I am still technically correct, there is no doubt that the construction materials segment of our economy is mired in the deepest downturn since the recession of the mid-1970s. And by next year, it could be [...]

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The China (Cement) Syndrome

Pierre Villere — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 04:05:04 +0000

China's thirst for cement is on producers' lips. As we experience one of the concrete industry’s roughest downturns in memory, we continue to brace ourselves for what the Portland Cement Association says will be a reduction in cement consumption from the 128-million- ton high in 2006 to the projected 96-million-ton low in 2009. Cement consumption [...]

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The Train Keeps Rolling

Pierre Villere — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 04:02:52 +0000

We have a great old passenger train based here in New Orleans called the Sunset Limited. In the 1950s and 60s, it was synonymous with pure luxury, ferrying its well-dressed pasengers from here to Los Angeles before air travel overtook passenger trains as the most efficient means of transportation. In recent years, I have coined [...]

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Hang on a little longer

Pierre Villere — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 04:00:35 +0000

The end of the housing depression may be in sight. Ed Sullivan, the Portland Cement Association’s chief economist, turned from gloomy to negative about the outlook for housing and the economy as a whole, in his Spring Forecast. Just read a few of his bearish comments. “The labor market has shed 240,000 jobs in three [...]

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A Tough Road

Pierre Villere — Sat, 24 May 2008 03:55:44 +0000

As concrete producers, you deal with aggregates in one form or another. But did you realize what a behemoth the aggregates industry is and how it influences our entire economy? The National Stone, Sand and Gravel Association (NSSGA) reports aggregate production exceeded more than 3 billion tons in 2006. NSSGA values the tonnage at $21 [...]

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So You’ve Built it… Now What?

Pierre Villere — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 03:53:58 +0000

There is a great word in the dictionary called “pluck,” or a “resourceful courage and daring in the face of difficulties; spirit.” This industry has lots of owners with pluck. I’m amazed by the stories I’ve heard. There was Victor, the talented young ready-mixed concrete executive who quit his job, sold his house to take [...]

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The Looming Tax Dilemma

Pierre Villere — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 03:51:25 +0000

Okay, so I have stuck my neck out and called, “No recession in 2008...” Since I wrote that last month, the generally accepted odds are 50/50 that we will slip into a recession this year. So I hope the coin falls my way, and I stand by my bullish bet. But beyond the current slowdown, [...]

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Calm Down: No Recession

Pierre Villere — Sun, 24 Feb 2008 03:42:11 +0000

The concrete industry faces tough questions whenever the economic horizon is cloudy. Managers must decide on the timing for capital expenditures, how to plan staffing levels, and many smaller decisions in between. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has cut short-term interest rates three times in recent months. The main question posed to [...]

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Digging Out

Pierre Villere — Thu, 24 Jan 2008 03:39:11 +0000

I recently wrote about how the housing bust has affected our industry and its prospects for 2008. I have been asked many times, “So, if the reason for this bust is the mortgage market, how will we ever dig out of this mess?” Well, I believe the key to the housing recovery will be the [...]

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The Science of Pricing Concrete

Pierre Villere — Sun, 23 Dec 2007 22:52:54 +0000

The problem with economic downturns in the concrete industry is that the competitor down the street often doesn’t value his product or company at a fair price. Instead of looking at his business as a whole investment, this panicked producer reacts to falling sales volumes with a strategy that attempts to capture sales dollars with [...]

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Rocky Times for Aggregate

Pierre Villere — Fri, 23 Nov 2007 22:51:54 +0000

Last month, I reviewed Florida’s aggregates shortage and how it affects that state’s ability to supply the material required for the construction projects you see as you drive up and down I-95 or the Florida Turnpike. Now lets look at California. While that state enjoys far more aggregate reserves due to its size and geology, [...]

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The Looming Aggregate Crisis

Pierre Villere — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 22:50:51 +0000

For years now, California and Florida have led the nation in growth, and there is no doubt that these two states will be among the growth leaders for decades to come, Texas and Arizona will not be far behind. But a troubling trend that could impact residential, commercial, and public works projects in those states [...]

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Housing’s Perfect Storm

Pierre Villere — Sun, 23 Sep 2007 22:49:42 +0000

Last November, I predicted a stable year for concrete production in 2007, with total yardage “at least as strong as 2006.” At that time, I didn’t fully appreciate the impact of the spectacular flameout of the subprime mortgage industry and its impact on new residential construction. This phenomenon, coupled with other impacts like the looming [...]

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A Concrete MBA

Pierre Villere — Thu, 23 Aug 2007 22:48:39 +0000

Recruiting and training middle management personnel has challenged this industry for decades. Men and women who have grown up through the ranks often are not equipped to nurture and expand their skills beyond the disciplines they have learned in the field, such as mix designs, batching, and dispatch. As young people advance in our industry, [...]

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Into the Mix

Pierre Villere — Mon, 23 Jul 2007 22:46:32 +0000

Building a giant cement plant is a lesson in perseverance. This Article Features a Quote by Pierre Villere Like other precious resources, the United States has become dependent on imported cement, and anyone wondering why only needs to study the case of Holcim US’s cement plant, now under construction in Ste. Genevieve County, Missouri. The [...]

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Breaking Even

Pierre Villere — Mon, 23 Jul 2007 22:45:12 +0000

I am amazed by the number of concrete producers who have never calculated one of the most important indices in running a concrete business: How many yards do I have to produce to break even? In a year when the housing slowdown has put a crimp on volume for some producers, it is a topic [...]

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A Look at Tech

Pierre Villere — Wed, 23 May 2007 22:44:11 +0000

Last month, I wrote a big-picture view of what our industry will look like in 2015 and beyond. I only touched briefly on technology, which covers everything from mixer truck-based systems to accounting software, and everything in between. "Emerging technology will drive gains in efficiency." In March, two information technology providers in our industry, Command [...]

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A Crystal Ball Redux

Pierre Villere — Mon, 23 Apr 2007 22:38:02 +0000

Almost two years ago, I wrote about the trends I believe our industry will experience through 2010. Here is a fresh updated look at a dramatically changing industry, which I presented at World of Concrete in January. This view looks into the crystal ball for about the next 10 years and beyond, as we try [...]

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Timing is Everything

Pierre Villere — Fri, 23 Mar 2007 22:33:55 +0000

Following the stock prices of large multi-national and smaller public domestic construction companies gives a sense of how Wall Street investors view our industry. This segment’s prices are an accurate barometer of our industry’s health. First, let me say, our firm does not buy, sell, or trade stocks. Nor do we publish stock research. But [...]

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The Slow Slog

Pierre Villere — Fri, 23 Feb 2007 22:30:39 +0000

As many of you know, New Orleans is my hometown, and our national practice is headquartered in a suburb of the city, high and dry and away from the utter wreckage and devastation of Hurricane Katrina. As I travel the country on business, many ask where I am from, and when I answer “New Orleans.” [...]

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Bullish on Building

Pierre Villere — Tue, 23 Jan 2007 22:24:50 +0000

This past fall, the U.S. Census Bureau announced with great fanfare that America’s population had surpassed 300 million. I found this interesting, particularly given that it squares with a little known, but an important new report from the Brookings Institute about how projected population growth will drive demand for new housing and commercial and industrial [...]

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Two Ends of the Spectrum

Pierre Villere — Sat, 23 Dec 2006 22:22:58 +0000

Exactly one year ago, I wrote about the results of the National Ready Mixed Concrete Association Industry Data Survey, and took a close look at how the producers who rank in the top 25% of our industry compare to their peers. I compared Leaders, or the top quartile, to the performers in the 50th percentile, [...]

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Housing’s Big Fall

Pierre Villere — Thu, 23 Nov 2006 22:19:46 +0000

I remain very bullish on the ready mix industry over the next quarter century. But near-term, such as the coming year, the horizon seems very hazy. I still firmly believe that the industry will blow past 500 million cubic yards of annual production, sooner rather than later, and is on track to produce 600 million [...]

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A Dizzying Game of Chess

Pierre Villere — Mon, 23 Oct 2006 22:18:55 +0000

I have always been fascinated with the game of chess, and played it extensively in my youth. The game has a particular affinity to those of us from New Orleans because America’s most famous chess master, Paul Morphy, was a native, born and raised in my hometown before the Civil War. Chess reflects the pecking [...]

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A Bright Future

Pierre Villere — Sat, 23 Sep 2006 22:14:41 +0000

The long expected housing slowdown, predicted in this column and in other business publications has finally taken hold of the construction materials industry. This slowdown is being felt particularly by those ready mixed producers who businesses have a large residential component. But there is good news: The outlook for the next quarter-century looks extremely robust [...]

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A Look Back and Ahead

Pierre Villere — Wed, 23 Aug 2006 22:13:31 +0000

As we head toward the home stretch of 2006, it might be interesting to review some of the predictions I previously expressed. So far, I’m happy to say, it looks like I’m batting 1.000. Inflation and interest rates I am more worried about inflationand interest rates than I have been inquite some time. The Fed [...]

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Boom or Bust: Prosperity or Recession?

Pierre Villere — Sun, 23 Jul 2006 22:09:46 +0000

I am not an economist; I am just an investment banker trying to keep my finger on the pulse of our national and global economy. And I am as confused as ever on the outlook for the rest of this year and into 2007. Certain economic indicators are so strong, that we see upward pressure [...]

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A New Threat

Pierre Villere — Tue, 23 May 2006 22:04:45 +0000

The Institute for Justice tells the story of Susette Kelo, who dreamed of owning a home that looked out over the water. In 1997, she purchased and lovingly restored her little pink house in the Fort Trumbull area of New London, Ct., where the Thames River meets the Long Island Sound. She’s enjoyed the great [...]

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Why Fly Solo?

Pierre Villere — Sun, 23 Apr 2006 22:02:01 +0000

After determining how much your company is worth (see last month’s column), it the becomes time to ask yourself, “Is this the time to sell?” If we look at the activity in the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) side of the ready- mixed concrete industry, the number of transactions has been at an all-time high the [...]

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What’s Your Company Worth?

Pierre Villere — Thu, 23 Mar 2006 22:00:21 +0000

I regularly receive phone calls or am approached at industry conferences with the same basic question: "What are ready-mixed concrete producers selling for on a production yard basis?" or "What multiples are being used in today's market for ready-mixed producers?" What they are really asking me, in a veiled way, is “What is my company [...]

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Getting the Mix Right

Pierre Villere — Thu, 23 Mar 2006 21:59:44 +0000

It’s a matter of discussion at every concrete industry meeting. Wherever producers gather, rumors about consolidation seem to capture everyone’s attention. As a principal in a consulting firm specializing in bringing buyers and sellers together, I’ve studied the effects of acquisitions on both our sellers and buyers. For us, it’s important to try to understand [...]

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Farewell, Mr. Chairman

Pierre Villere — Thu, 23 Feb 2006 20:50:44 +0000

Jay Leno loves to call attention to the general dimwittedness of the average person walking on the street with his hilarious “Jay Walking” interviews. He asks everyday people questions about current events or basic knowledge any first grader should know. Usually, they stare back and give uproariously goofy answers. My favorite exchange was Leno: “What [...]

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Housing’s Hiccups

Pierre Villere — Mon, 23 Jan 2006 20:48:00 +0000

At a Rolling Stones concert in San Diego this past fall, fliers were being handed out offering condo buyers a new car with the purchase of a unit. This clearly marks a turn from a sellers’ market to a buyers’ market. Is the bloom off the housing rose? The business press writes daily about this [...]

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How The Industry Leaders Outperform The Rest

Pierre Villere — Fri, 23 Dec 2005 20:46:16 +0000

Last month, I wrote about the 2005 Industry Data Survey, and I talked about what a terrific tool it is. It is offered by NRMCA to its membership annually, and we think it is one of the most important and valuable benchmarking tools available in our industry. Each year, our firm does a thorough analysis [...]

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A Healthy Industry… And a Personal Note on Katrina

Pierre Villere — Wed, 23 Nov 2005 20:44:31 +0000

The 2005 Industry Data Survey, a terrific tool offered by NRMCA to its membership, is finished and has been circulated to its participants. The survey begins with a detailed questionnaire made available to the entire Association membership every Spring, and the financial personnel at participating companies complete the form with the results of their prior [...]

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Jane Jetson was Cool

Pierre Villere — Sun, 23 Oct 2005 20:42:37 +0000

When I was a kid in the early 60s, I watched Saturday morning cartoons like most of the other kids in the neighborhood. One of my favorites was “The Jetsons.” I looked at all the technological wizardry and could only dream of what the future might be. Remember, this was at a time of tabletop, [...]

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Concrete’s Ups and Downs

Pierre Villere — Fri, 23 Sep 2005 06:23:06 +0000

There is much to consider when pondering the future of cement prices, which have increased by up to $40 a ton in some areas since prices started going up last year. You’d think this jump would more than offset the roughly $20 per-ton rate increase for ocean freight at its peak, but the Pan-Asian demand [...]

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Bigger and Fewer

Pierre Villere — Tue, 23 Aug 2005 20:41:33 +0000

Have you looked closely at your market recently? All across the country, major and secondary markets are facing rapid changes as consolidation sweeps the ready-mixed concrete construction aggregates industry. We estimate there were 3200 to 3500 companies in the ready-mixed concrete business in the mid-1990s. Today, there are about 2700, a view that NRMCA shares [...]

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Our Crystal Ball

Pierre Villere — Sat, 23 Jul 2005 06:15:12 +0000

Bill Allen and I love to debate the big picture. My partner has been expressing accurate opinions about trends and values in the ready-mixed concrete industry for more than a quarter century, and I have become a true believer in his crystal ball. His ball is uncannily clear because the rest of us at the [...]

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