Among committed voters, the Progressive Conservatives are at 40%, down two points from our previous survey. The Ontario Liberals are at 32%, up one, while the NDP has increased three points to 20%. The Greens are at 4%, and another 4% would vote for another party.

The PC lead over the Liberals has narrowed from 11 points in August to eight points today.

Ford’s personal numbers have also softened. His net impression has moved from -8 to -10, while his preferred-premier score has fallen from 39% to 37%. Government approval remains unchanged at 36%, but disapproval has increased to 43%.

At the same time, 70% of Ontarians express at least some desire for a change in government, including 52% who say it is definitely time for a change. Only 19% believe Doug Ford and the PCs should definitely be re-elected.

The broader public mood is also more negative than positive. Just 30% believe Ontario is headed in the right direction, while 53% believe the province is on the wrong track. Interestingly, Ontarians are considerably more optimistic about the direction of Canada than they are about their own province.

Taken together, the results suggest a provincial political environment that remains unsettled.

The PCs have a meaningful advantage in vote intention, particularly among older Ontarians, and Ford remains well ahead of his rivals as preferred premier. But that lead exists alongside considerable dissatisfaction with the government’s performance and a majority of residents who believe the province is headed in the wrong direction.

PCs Fall to 40%, Lead Narrows to Eight Points

Among committed voters, the Progressive Conservatives stand at 40%, followed by the Liberals at 32%, the NDP at 20%, the Greens at 4%, and other parties at 4%.

Compared with our late-August survey, PC support is down two points, Liberal support is up one, and NDP support is up three. The Green vote is unchanged, while support for other parties has fallen two points.

The result puts the PCs eight points ahead of the Liberals.

That is narrower than the 11-point advantage they held in August, when the PCs stood at 42% and the Liberals at 31%.

It also means the modest PC recovery we observed in our previous survey has not been sustained. The party is back at the 40% level it recorded in late July.

The NDP has seen the largest improvement since the last wave, increasing from 17% to 20%. This brings the party back to one in five committed voters and leaves it 12 points behind the Liberals.

Ford’s Coalition Remains Strongest Among Older Ontarians

The demographic results continue to show that PC support is not evenly distributed across the electorate.

Among men, the PCs lead with 42%, compared with 31% for the Liberals and 20% for the NDP.

Among women, the race is considerably closer. The PCs are at 37%, the Liberals at 34%, and the NDP at 21%.

This gives the PCs an 11-point advantage over the Liberals among men but only a three-point lead among women.

Age continues to produce a more pronounced dividing line.

Among Ontarians aged 60 and over, 48% would vote PC, compared with 27% for the Liberals and 19% for the NDP.

The PCs also lead among those aged 30 to 44, with 36% compared with 32% for the Liberals and 22% for the NDP.

Among those aged 45 to 59, the PCs are at 35%, the Liberals at 31%, and the NDP at 23%.

But among the youngest voters, the pattern reverses.

Among Ontarians aged 18 to 29, the Liberals lead with 42%, followed by the PCs at 32% and the NDP at 16%. Another 5% would vote Green and 4% would vote for another party.

These results reinforce the importance of older voters to the PC coalition.

PCs Lead in Toronto, the GTHA and Southwestern Ontario; Liberals Ahead in Eastern Ontario

Regionally, the PCs continue to lead in several important parts of the province, although their advantage varies considerably.

In Toronto, the PCs are at 41%, compared with 36% for the Liberals and 16% for the NDP.

In the GTHA outside Toronto, the PC advantage is larger. Forty-two percent would vote PC, compared with 30% Liberal and 21% NDP.

The PCs are also ahead in Southwestern Ontario, where they stand at 41%, followed by the Liberals at 29% and the NDP at 20%.

Eastern Ontario presents a different picture.

There, the Liberals lead with 41%, compared with 27% for the PCs and 22% for the NDP. The Greens are at 6%.

Liberals Have the Largest Accessible Voter Pool

One of the more interesting findings in this wave comes from a question asking Ontarians whether they would consider voting for each provincial political party.

Fifty-four percent say they would consider voting for the Ontario Liberals, while 46% would not.

Forty-seven percent would consider voting PC, while 53% would not.

The NDP has a similar potential voter pool, with 45% willing to consider the party and 55% unwilling to do so.

The Greens have a smaller accessible pool. Thirty percent would consider voting Green, while 70% would not.

These numbers are important because they measure something different from current voting intention.

The vote intention question tells us which party people would support if an election were held today. The consideration question tells us which parties are potentially acceptable to voters, even if they are not currently their preferred choice.

On that measure, the Liberals have an advantage.

A majority of Ontarians are willing to consider voting Liberal, making it the only party with a potential voter pool exceeding 50%.

That does not mean the Liberals are poised to win an election, nor does it mean everyone willing to consider them can be converted into a Liberal voter. Consideration is not a commitment.

But it does suggest the party’s current 32% vote share is not necessarily the limit of its potential support.

The challenge is that openness to voting Liberal has not translated into a lead over the PCs.

A Majority Believe Ontario Is on the Wrong Track

The broader mood of the province remains negative.

Fifty-three percent of Ontarians believe the province is headed in the wrong direction, while 30% say it is headed in the right direction.

That represents a 23-point gap between negative and positive assessments of Ontario’s direction.

But what makes this finding particularly interesting is how it compares with perceptions of Canada.

Half of Ontarians, 50%, believe Canada is headed in the right direction, compared with 41% who believe the country is on the wrong track.

In other words, Ontarians are 20 points more likely to believe Canada is headed in the right direction than to say the same about Ontario.

Ford Government Approval Remains at 36%, While Disapproval Rises

Thirty-six percent of Ontarians approve of the job performance of Doug Ford and the provincial government, while 43% disapprove.

Another 18% neither approve nor disapprove, and 2% are unsure.

Compared with our previous survey, approval is unchanged at 36%, while disapproval has increased two points, from 41% to 43%.

The government’s net approval rating is therefore -7.

The movement is not dramatic, but it is consistent with a broader political environment in which the PCs have lost some voting support and Ford’s personal image has weakened slightly.

Ford’s Personal Image Slips as Opposition Leaders Improve

Doug Ford’s personal image has weakened slightly since our last survey.

Thirty-five percent of Ontarians have a positive impression of Ford, while 45% have a negative impression. His net impression is therefore -10.

In August, Ford’s net impression was -8, with 35% viewing him positively and 43% negatively.

His positive rating is unchanged, but his negative rating has increased two points.

The opposition leaders all have slightly positive net impressions.

John Fraser has a net impression of +4, with 27% viewing him positively and 23% negatively. That is an improvement from his -1 net score in our previous survey.

Marit Stiles has a net impression of +2, with 30% viewing her positively and 28% negatively. Her previous net score was +1.

Mike Schreiner has a net impression of +1, with 23% viewing him positively and 22% negatively. That compares with -2 in August.

An important qualification is that the opposition leaders remain considerably less familiar to Ontarians than Ford.

Just 1% say they do not know enough about Ford to offer an impression.

By comparison, 23% say they do not know enough about Fraser, 21% say the same about Schreiner, and 16% about Stiles.

Ford Remains Preferred Premier, but His Advantage Narrows

When Ontarians are asked who they would prefer to be premier, Doug Ford remains the clear first choice.

Thirty-seven percent choose Ford, compared with 19% for Marit Stiles, 13% for John Fraser, and 7% for Mike Schreiner. Another 24% are unsure.

Compared with August, Ford’s preferred-premier score has fallen from 39% to 37%.

Stiles has increased from 16% to 19%, Fraser from 11% to 13%, and Schreiner from 6% to 7%.

The proportion unsure has fallen from 29% to 24%.

Ford’s lead over his nearest rival, Marit Stiles, has narrowed from 23 points to 18.

That is still a substantial advantage.

Seven in Ten Ontarians Want a Change in Government

The desire for political change remains one of the most striking findings in the survey.

Seventy percent of Ontarians express at least some desire for a change in government.

Fifty-two percent say it is definitely time for a change, while another 18% say it would be nice to change the government but that doing so is not especially important to them.

By comparison, 19% say Doug Ford and the PCs should definitely be re-elected.

Another 11% say they would like to keep the government but do not feel strongly about it.

Taken together, 70% are on the change side, while 30% are on the keep-the-government side.

Compared with our previous survey, the desire for change has increased modestly.

In August, 68% expressed some desire for change, including 50% who definitely wanted a change and 18% who were more softly inclined toward one.

Today, the proportion who definitely want a change has increased to 52%.

The Upshot

This is a weaker wave for Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives than the one we reported in September.

PC support has fallen from 42% to 40%. Their lead over the Liberals has narrowed from 11 points to eight. Ford’s net personal impression has moved from -8 to -10, and his preferred-premier score has fallen from 39% to 37%.

Government approval remains at 36%, while disapproval has increased to 43%.

None of these changes on its own represents a dramatic shift in the political environment.

The PCs remain comfortably ahead of the Liberals at the provincial level. Ford remains the clear first choice for premier. His party continues to lead among older voters and in several important regions of Ontario.

But the broader picture is less reassuring for the government.

Seven in ten Ontarians want at least some degree of political change. A majority believe Ontario is headed in the wrong direction. More people disapprove of the government’s performance than approve.

And only 19% believe Doug Ford and the PCs should definitely be re-elected.

These are not the numbers of an electorate that is broadly enthusiastic about the incumbent government.

What makes Ontario politics interesting right now is the gap between dissatisfaction with the government and the current distribution of electoral support.

A large majority express a desire for change, yet the PCs continue to lead in voting intentions.

That tells us something important about the difference between wanting a government replaced and deciding who should replace it.

The first is an assessment of the incumbent. The second requires voters to evaluate the alternatives.

And on that second question, Ford and the PCs continue to benefit from a political environment in which opposition support is divided.

The Liberals are clearly the strongest opposition party in current voting intentions, with 32% support. But the NDP is at 20%, and its support has increased three points since August.

That means there are two significant opposition parties competing for the support of Ontarians who may be looking for an alternative to the PCs.

The Liberals are acceptable to a majority of Ontarians, but they remain eight points behind the PCs among committed voters. The political opportunity is there, but it has not yet fully materialized in vote intention.

For the PCs, that presents a potential risk.

A party with a smaller accessible voter pool than its principal opponent, a government facing more disapproval than approval, and an electorate where seven in ten want some degree of change may find it difficult to expand its support if public dissatisfaction intensifies.

That does not mean the PCs are destined to lose. They have demonstrated considerable resilience, and Ford continues to benefit from a substantial personal advantage over his political opponents.

But it does suggest that the government’s electoral position is stronger than the underlying public mood toward it.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,291 eligible voters in Ontario from October 2 to 13, 2026.

A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is ±2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Ontario’s population according to the 2021 Census. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Comparisons with the previous survey are between separate samples and should be interpreted as changes in aggregate public opinion rather than changes among the same individual respondents.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

About Abacus Data

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

With offices in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto, and now in Winnipeg following our acquisition of Probe Research, we can serve clients across the country.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

The post Ford PCs Slip to 40% as Lead Narrows and Seven in Ten Ontarians Want Change appeared first on Abacus Data.

Sixty-eight percent would vote for Alberta to remain a province of Canada, up from 64% in September. Twenty-four percent would vote to commence the legal process, unchanged. Seven percent are undecided and 1% would skip the question, down from 12% combined five weeks ago.

Among decided voters, the split is 74% remain to 26% Option 2, almost identical to September’s result: 73% to 27%.

In other words, previously uncertain Albertans appear to be moving toward remain, while Option 2 has held its support without adding to it.

Remain Now Leads Everywhere, Including Rural Alberta

In September, rural Alberta was the only region where remain did not command a majority. Today, 57% of rural voters would vote remain and 35% Option 2.

Support for remaining in Canada reaches 77% in Edmonton, 75% in Calgary and 62% in small cities and bedroom communities.

The political divide is more striking.

Among current UCP supporters, 52% would vote Option 2 and 44% remain. By comparison, 93% of NDP supporters would vote remain.

Indeed, 77% of everyone who would vote Option 2 currently supports the UCP. The referendum continues to divide the governing party’s own coalition.

Most Voters Are Certain, and Turnout Appears to Favour Remain

Three-quarters of those who have chosen a side (76%) say they are completely certain and will not change their minds. Among remain voters, 84% are completely certain. Among Option 2 supporters, the number is 61%.

Eleven percent report they have already voted by mail. Of those, 93% report voting remain. Another 49% of the electorate say they definitely will vote on or before Oct. 19.

Among those who have voted or definitely will, the split is 75% remain and 24% Option 2.

The age gap is also considerable. Eighty-five percent of voters aged 60 and older have voted or definitely will, compared with just 38% of those under 30. Sixteen percent of under-30s remain undecided or would skip the question.

Voting Option 2 Is Not the Same as Wanting Independence

Option 2 does not ask Albertans to leave Canada. It asks whether the government should begin the legal process towards a later, binding referendum on separation.

Among Option 2 supporters, 63% say they would vote to separate in that future referendum. Eleven percent would vote to remain, 22% say it would depend on the circumstances and 4% are unsure.

Across the electorate, we estimate that 18% would vote for an independent Alberta if asked directly, unchanged from September.

And only 32% of Option 2 supporters identify independence as their main reason for voting that way. Another 23% want a better deal within Canada, 22% believe Albertans deserve a direct say and 19% want to send Ottawa a message without necessarily leaving.

The Option 2 coalition includes committed separatists, but also voters seeking leverage, recognition or a way to express frustration.

Remain Is a Broad Coalition, Not a Vote for the Status Quo

Among those voting remain, 39% say they are proud to be Canadian and want Alberta to stay. Another 29% object to the referendum happening at all. But 16% say separation is too risky or costly, while 13% have frustrations with Ottawa but believe separation goes too far.

In all, 29% of remain voters are choosing Canada out of caution or restraint. Among UCP supporters voting remain, that proportion rises to 52%.

The remain majority is substantial, but it is not politically uniform.

Albertans Expect a Much Closer Result Than They Intend to Deliver

Asked what share of the vote Option 2 will receive, Albertans give an average estimate of 40%. It was 41% in September.

Option 2 supporters expect their side to receive 57%, a majority. Remain voters expect 33%.

Yet just 24% currently intend to vote Option 2, or 26% among decided voters.

If the actual result resembles these intentions, many Albertans, especially those backing Option 2, could be surprised by the scale of the outcome.

Attachment to Canada is one of the clearest dividing lines in the referendum

The referendum also reveals a significant divide in how Albertans feel about their province and their country. Among those planning to vote Remain, 76% feel strongly attached to Canada, while 51% feel strongly attached to Alberta. Among Option 2 supporters, the relationship is almost completely reversed. Just 21% feel strongly attached to Canada, compared with 68% who feel strongly attached to Alberta.

This 47-point attachment gap among Option 2 supporters helps explain why the two sides see the referendum so differently. For those supporting separation, Alberta is a much stronger source of identity and belonging than Canada. For Remain voters, attachment to Canada is particularly strong, but that does not mean they lack a connection to Alberta.

The divide is also evident along partisan lines. Among UCP supporters, 68% feel strongly attached to Alberta compared with just 39% to Canada. Among NDP supporters, 84% feel strongly attached to Canada and 42% to Alberta.

Age also matters a great deal. Albertans aged 60 and older are equally likely to feel strongly attached to Canada and Alberta (71% for each), while younger Albertans report lower levels of attachment to both.

These findings suggest the referendum is about more than dissatisfaction with Ottawa or competing assessments of the costs of separation. It also reflects a fundamental difference in how Albertans understand their identity and their relationship with Canada.

Most Albertans are optimistic about the province’s future, especially those supporting Option 2

Despite widespread dissatisfaction with the direction of the province, Albertans are more likely to believe its best days are still ahead of them rather than behind them. Almost half (47%) believe Alberta’s best days are still to come, compared with 30% who think they are behind it. Another 23% are unsure.

One of the more interesting findings is that optimism is strongest among those supporting Option 2. Almost six in ten (59%) believe Alberta’s best days are ahead of it, compared with 44% of those planning to vote Remain. Both groups are equally likely (31%) to believe the province’s best days are behind it.

This pattern is also evident along partisan lines. Among UCP supporters, 62% believe Alberta’s best days are ahead, compared with 41% of NDP supporters. Optimism is also somewhat stronger in rural Alberta (52%) and among those aged 60 and older (55%). Edmonton residents (41%) and those aged 30 to 44 (42%) are among the least optimistic.

These findings challenge the idea that support for Option 2 is driven primarily by pessimism about Alberta’s future and a desire to return to how things were in the past. In fact, those most willing to fundamentally change Alberta’s relationship with Canada are also among the most confident about what lies ahead for the province. For many, support for Option 2 may be less about believing Alberta is in decline and more about believing it could do better on its own.

The Upshot

Our final survey suggests a decisive public preference for Alberta remaining in Canada, although the final margin will depend on who actually turns out to vote on October 19.

Remain has gained four points since September. Option 2 has gained none. The undecided pool has shrunk and most decided voters say their choice is firm.

But one of the most important findings in this final survey is what appears to be a closing of the enthusiasm gap between the two sides.

One of the arguments for why Option 2 could do better on referendum day than the polling suggests has been that its supporters are more motivated to vote. That remains possible. But our latest evidence suggests the turnout advantage that Option 2 supporters may have enjoyed earlier in the campaign has narrowed as Remain voters have become more engaged.

Does that mean a turnout differential won’t materialize on October 19? No. People who say they will vote don’t always show up, and those who are most motivated can still have an outsized influence on the result. But the evidence from our two surveys points to a closing enthusiasm gap, not a widening one. And that makes the path to an Option 2 victory more difficult.

The other significant political divide is within the UCP itself. A slim majority of current UCP supporters want to begin the separation process, while a large minority want Alberta to stay in Canada. Many of these UCP remainers share frustrations with Ottawa but are not prepared to support separation, or fear what it could cost.

That creates a challenge for Premier Danielle Smith that will extend well beyond October 19. A strong Remain vote may settle the referendum question, but it will not resolve the grievances that led so many Albertans to consider Option 2 in the first place.

There is another tension running through these findings. Fifty-seven percent believe Alberta is headed in the wrong direction, compared with 46% who say the same about Canada. Yet 47% believe Alberta’s best days are still ahead of it, including 59% of Option 2 voters.

Those most inclined to question Alberta’s place in Canada are also among the most optimistic about Alberta’s future.

So this referendum is not simply a contest between people who believe in Alberta and people who do not. It is a debate over how the province can best realize its potential and whether remaining in Canada or fundamentally challenging that relationship is the better way to get there.

If there is one conclusion from these two surveys, it is that most Albertans want to stay in Canada. And while turnout still matters, the evidence increasingly suggests that those who want to remain are just as determined to have their say.

The harder question for the day after the vote is how to bring together a province divided over what staying should mean.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,021 eligible Alberta voters from October 7 to 13, 2026. 

A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey through a set of partner panels. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Alberta’s population.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is approximately plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Totals may not add to 100 because of rounding.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Recent Releases:

• Ford PCs Slip to 40% as Lead Narrows and Seven in Ten Ontarians Want Change
• Days Before Alberta’s Referendum, Support for Remain Rises
• Albertans Trust the Referendum Count, but not the Aftermath: 67% Want Government to Turn the Page
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• Canadians Are Worried About Homelessness, but Believe Progress is Possible. They Expect Governments to Deliver Visible, Effective Solutions.

About Abacus Data

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

With offices in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto, and now in Winnipeg following our acquisition of Probe Research, we can serve clients across the country.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

The post Days Before Alberta’s Referendum, Support for Remain Rises appeared first on Abacus Data.

The ballot asks whether Alberta should remain in Canada or begin the legal process toward a binding referendum on separation.

Conducted October 7 to 13, 2026, the survey finds considerable confidence in the vote count, but much less in what happens next.

Sixty-eight percent trust Elections Alberta to count the ballots fairly, including 26% who trust it completely. Yet only 40% trust that both sides will respect the result, while 44% distrust that they will.

Sixty-one percent expect Albertans will vote again on separation and continue to debate the province’s place in Canada. And even if a majority votes to remain, 73% think the question will return in one form or another.

At the same time, two-thirds (67%) want the provincial government to turn the page and focus on everyday issues like health care, affordability and jobs.

The overall picture is of a public ready to move forward, but not convinced its political leaders will do the same.

Albertans Trust Elections Alberta More Than They Trust the Aftermath

Fifty-seven percent trust that Elections Alberta will be able to count the vote without outside interference. Only 37% trust that other countries will not interfere in the outcome.

And doubts about the result being respected are shared across both sides of the referendum.

Seventy-one percent of remain supporters and the same share of Option 2 supporters trust the count will be fair. Yet 46% in each camp distrust that both sides will respect the outcome.

The partisan divide is larger. Fifty-nine percent of NDP voters distrust that the result will be respected, compared with 39% of UCP voters.

Albertans appear to have more faith in the people counting the ballots than in the people arguing about what the count will mean.

Most Expect Another Vote, Even if Remain Wins

Sixty-one percent believe Albertans will be asked to vote again at some point in the future, including 16% who say definitely. Only 23% think another vote will not happen.

That expectation reaches 81% among Option 2 supporters. But even among those voting remain, 55% expect another vote to occur.

We also asked what would happen if remain wins.

Just 14% believe the issue would be settled for a generation or longer. Twenty-six percent think it would fade and eventually return, 23% expect another referendum push within a few years, and 24% believe the independence movement would continue to grow regardless.

In rural Alberta, 34% expect the movement to keep growing, while just 5% believe the issue would be settled.

In other words, a remain victory may settle the ballot question without settling the underlying political debate.

Albertans Expect More Confrontation, Not Reconciliation

Few Albertans expect a reset in relations with Ottawa.

Seventeen percent think the relationship between the provincial and federal governments will improve. Forty-two percent expect no change and 25% think it will get worse.

Asked what is likely to happen during the coming year, 68% expect the Alberta government to push for more provincial powers, such as its own pension plan or police force.

Sixty percent think immigrants will avoid Alberta because of potential restrictions on access to social services. Fifty-five percent expect increased tensions with other provinces, while 52% think businesses will delay or cancel investments because of uncertainty.

There is even less optimism about bringing Albertans together.

Only 32% believe people who disagree about separation are likely to move past it and come together. Fifty-one percent think that unlikely.

And that pessimism crosses the referendum divide: just 31% of remain supporters and 35% of Option 2 supporters expect reconciliation.

These expectations suggest Albertans anticipate more political tension than closure.

Two-Thirds Want the Government to Move On

Despite expecting the debate to continue, most Albertans are clear about what they want their government to do.

Sixty-seven percent say it should turn the page and focus on health care, affordability and jobs. Twenty-two percent want it to keep pressing for greater provincial autonomy, while 11% are unsure.

That preference is a majority in every region, reaching 73% in Edmonton and 60% in rural Alberta.

Among remain supporters, 85% want the government to move on. Among NDP voters, the number is 94%.

Option 2 supporters take the opposite view: 63% want the government to keep pressing for autonomy, while 28% want it to turn the page.

And the governing party’s own supporters are almost evenly divided. Forty-five percent of UCP voters want to move on. Forty-seven percent want to keep pressing.

The province has a clear preference. The coalition supporting its government does not.

The UCP Leads the NDP by Five Points, but the Race Is Much Closer Than in September

If a provincial election were held today, Danielle Smith’s UCP would receive 47% of the vote among decided voters, compared with 42% for Naheed Nenshi’s Alberta NDP. The Progressive Tory Party, led by Peter Guthrie, would receive 6%, while another 5% would vote for another party.

The UCP’s five-point lead is considerably smaller than the 13-point advantage it held in September, when it led the NDP 52% to 39% among decided voters.

The regional differences are considerable. In Calgary, the NDP holds a narrow lead over the UCP, 47% to 44%. In Edmonton, the NDP leads by a much wider margin, 55% to 31%.

Outside the two largest cities, the picture reverses.

The UCP leads by 21 points in small cities and bedroom communities, 56% to 35%, and by 25 points in rural Alberta, 57% to 32%.

There is also a clear generational divide.

Among voters under 30, the NDP leads 47% to 42%. The two parties are almost tied among those aged 30 to 44, with the NDP at 45% and the UCP at 44%.

The UCP leads among voters aged 45 to 59 (48% to 42%) – and its advantage grows to 17 points among those aged 60 and older (53% to 36%).

The relationship between provincial vote intention and the referendum is particularly revealing.

Among Albertans who would vote to remain in Canada, 56% would support the NDP in a provincial election, compared with 30% who would support the UCP.

But among those who would vote to begin the separation process, 88% would support the UCP and just 8% the NDP.

This reinforces one of the central findings of our referendum research. The separation question is deeply connected to provincial political allegiance, but the remain coalition extends well beyond the NDP’s supporters.

The UCP remains ahead provincially, but its advantage is concentrated among older voters and those living outside Calgary and Edmonton. And with the governing party’s own supporters divided over the referendum, the political implications of October 19 could extend well beyond this vote and into the upcoming provincial election campaign.

The Upshot

This survey highlights an important distinction between trusting the result of the referendum vote and believing the issues that led to it will be successfully resolved.

Most Albertans on both sides of the referendum divide trust the referendum process – that Elections Alberta will count the ballots fairly and will not be hampered by outside interference. But that trust breaks down on the perceived motives of the other side and expectations of being able to come together following the vote.

The last part is key – the referendum may produce a decisive answer on October 19, but Albertans appear doubtful that it will produce an enduring political settlement in their communities and with the broader country.

Many, especially those voting for Option 2, expect the independence movement to grow and push again for another referendum in a few years. Albertans also expect additional demands for provincial autonomy, tensions with other provinces, and continued investment uncertainty to be part of their reality for the foreseeable future.

But these expectations co-exist with a clear desire to change the subject.

Two-thirds want the government focused on health care, affordability and jobs rather than continuing to press the constitutional debate.

The complication for Premier Danielle Smith is that UCP voters are split down the middle on what should happen next. This makes the days following the referendum potentially as consequential as the vote itself, starting with the UCP’s annual meeting in late November.

If the province votes to remain in Canada, the question will not be simply whether to recognize the result. It will be whether to treat it as an opportunity to move on, or as another chapter in a longer confrontation.

Will it be back to business as usual? Or will it be – to quote former Quebec premier Rene Levesque’s line after losing his province’s 1980 sovereignty referendum – a matter of waiting “until next time” (à la prochaine fois) for a future vote on separating?

Most Albertans want the former. But many are expecting the latter.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,021 eligible Alberta voters from October 7 to 13, 2026. 

A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey through a set of partner panels. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Alberta’s population.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is approximately plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Totals may not add to 100 because of rounding.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Recent Releases:

• Ford PCs Slip to 40% as Lead Narrows and Seven in Ten Ontarians Want Change
• Days Before Alberta’s Referendum, Support for Remain Rises
• Albertans Trust the Referendum Count, but not the Aftermath: 67% Want Government to Turn the Page
• Liberal 12-point lead holds as focus on Trump fades slightly
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Since our previous survey in late September, the Carney government has continued to emphasize economic growth, investment, and affordability. The Prime Minister announced a $2-billion initiative to support energy-efficient home retrofits, while new employment figures have reinforced concerns about the state of the Canadian economy.

At the same time, the relationship with the United States remains an important part of the federal political environment, even as the degree to which Canadians identify Donald Trump and his administration as one of the country’s most pressing issues has begun to ease.

Our latest survey finds a stable picture when it comes to federal vote intention, but somewhat more movement in how Canadians are evaluating the government and its leadership.

The Liberal Party continues to lead the Conservatives by 12 points nationally.

If an election were held today, 46% of committed voters would vote Liberal, 34% Conservative, 9% NDP, 7% Bloc Québécois, 3% Green, and 1% People’s Party.

These numbers are almost identical to those recorded in our September 23 survey. Liberal, Conservative, NDP, and Bloc support are all unchanged.

But beneath that stability, there are some indications that the political environment has softened slightly for the government.

Approval of the federal government has fallen three points to 57%, while disapproval has increased four points to 29%. Mark Carney’s personal impression rating remains strongly positive, but his net rating has slipped from +31 to +26.

And while almost half of Canadians continue to think the country is heading in the right direction, that number has edged down one point to 47%, while the share who think Canada is on the wrong track has increased three points to 42%.

Meanwhile, the rising cost of living remains the most frequently cited issue facing the country, selected by 64% of Canadians. Concern about Donald Trump and his administration has fallen four points to 40%, although it remains the second-most-selected issue nationally.

The result is a political environment in which the Liberals continue to hold a substantial electoral advantage, but where some of the broader measures that had been improving in recent weeks have moved modestly in the other direction.

Liberals Lead Conservatives by 12 Points, Unchanged from September

If an election were held today, 46% of committed voters would vote Liberal, 34% Conservative, 9% NDP, 7% Bloc Québécois, 3% Green, 1% People’s Party, and less than 1% another party.

Compared with our September 23 survey, there has been almost no movement in national vote intention.

Liberal support is unchanged at 46%, as is Conservative support at 34%. The NDP remains at 9%, the Bloc Québécois at 7%, and the People’s Party at 1%. Green Party support has increased one point to 3%.

The 12-point Liberal lead is therefore unchanged.

Among those who say they are certain to vote in an election, the Liberals receive 47% and the Conservatives 35%, also a 12-point gap. The NDP receives 8%, the Bloc 8%, and the Greens 2%.

Canadian Public Affairs Update · October 2026

Vote Intention: Liberals Lead Conservatives 46% to 34%

n=3,197 Canadian adults · October 2–13, 2026 · MoE ±1.7%

Overall Trend Line Subgroups Likely Voters Methodology

If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? (Undecided removed.)

Overall Federal Vote Intention

Liberals lead Conservatives by 12 points, 46% to 34%. Both parties are unchanged from September 23. The NDP is at 9%, the Bloc Québécois at 7%, and the Greens at 3%.

Liberal

46%NC

Conservative

34%NC

NDP

9%NC

Bloc Québécois

7%NC

Green

3%▲ +1

People’s Party

1%NC

Other

0%▼ -1

Party	Current	Sept 23, 2026	Change
Liberal	46%	46%	NC
Conservative	34%	34%	NC
NDP	9%	9%	NC
Bloc Québécois	7%	7%	NC
Green	3%	2%	▲ +1
People’s Party	1%	1%	NC
Other	0%	1%	▼ -1

Changes are percentage-point differences from September 23, 2026. NC means no change. Overall and likely-voter bars use a shared maximum of 47%. Undecided respondents are removed.

If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? (Undecided removed.)

Federal Vote Intention Trend

The October 13 trend wave matches the current slide results. Liberal and Conservative shares remain at 46% and 34%. Green support is 3%, up from 2% in the September 23 wave.

Liberal 46%Conservative 34%NDP 9%Bloc Québécois 7%Green 3%

View all 63 trend waves

Wave	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	Bloc Québécois	Green
Aug 7-24	23%	43%	18%	7%	4%
Aug 18-24	25%	42%	18%	7%	5%
Sept 12-24	22%	43%	18%	8%	5%
Sept 26-24	21%	43%	19%	8%	5%
Oct 10-24	22%	43%	19%	8%	4%
Oct 22-24	22%	44%	18%	8%	5%
Nov 5-24	22%	41%	20%	8%	5%
Nov 20-24	21%	43%	21%	8%	4%
Dec 4-24	21%	44%	20%	7%	5%
Dec 16-24	21%	44%	19%	7%	4%
Dec 17-24	20%	45%	18%	8%	4%
Jan 9-25	20%	47%	18%	8%	3%
Jan 14-25	20%	46%	19%	8%	4%
Jan 28-25	22%	43%	18%	9%	5%
Feb 11-25	27%	46%	15%	7%	3%
Feb 25-25	29%	41%	14%	6%	4%
Mar 12-25	34%	38%	15%	7%	4%
Mar 20-25	36%	39%	12%	6%	4%
Mar 25-25	38%	37%	11%	6%	4%
Mar 27-25	39%	39%	11%	5%	3%
Apr 3-25	39%	39%	11%	6%	3%
Apr 8-25	42%	36%	11%	5%	2%
Apr 10-25	44%	39%	8%	6%	1%
Apr 15-25	40%	39%	12%	7%	2%
Apr 21-25	42%	37%	10%	6%	2%
Apr 27-25	41%	39%	10%	6%	1%
May 5-25	44%	42%	6%	6%	1%
May 21-25	41%	40%	8%	7%	3%
Jun 5-25	42%	39%	7%	7%	2%
Jun 19-25	42%	39%	7%	6%	3%
July 2-25	41%	40%	9%	7%	2%
July 15-25	43%	40%	7%	7%	2%
Aug 7-25	43%	40%	8%	6%	2%
Aug 20-25	39%	41%	7%	7%	2%
Sept 2-25	43%	40%	6%	7%	2%
Sept 17-25	40%	40%	8%	7%	3%
Oct 1-25	40%	41%	7%	7%	3%
Oct 15-25	40%	41%	8%	7%	3%
Oct 29-25	40%	42%	8%	6%	3%
Nov 6-25	40%	41%	8%	7%	2%
Nov 27-25	41%	40%	8%	7%	2%
Dec 10-25	41%	41%	9%	6%	2%
Jan 14-26	40%	40%	8%	7%	3%
Jan 16-26	41%	39%	8%	7%	3%
Jan 27-26	43%	39%	8%	6%	2%
Feb 10-26	44%	37%	8%	6%	3%
Feb 24-26	44%	38%	7%	6%	2%
Mar 11-26	46%	35%	7%	7%	3%
Mar 25-26	44%	37%	9%	6%	3%
Apr 8-25	44%	38%	8%	6%	3%
Apr 22-26	45%	36%	8%	7%	2%
May 6-26	46%	36%	8%	6%	3%
May 20-26	47%	35%	8%	6%	2%
Jun 3-26	44%	36%	11%	6%	3%
Jun 17-26	45%	37%	9%	6%	2%
July 2-26	44%	36%	8%	7%	2%
July 16-26	43%	37%	9%	7%	1%
July 29-26	44%	38%	9%	6%	3%
Aug 12-26	42%	35%	10%	8%	4%
Aug 26-26	45%	35%	9%	7%	2%
Sept 10-26	47%	33%	8%	7%	3%
Sept 23-26	46%	34%	9%	7%	2%
Oct 13-26	46%	34%	9%	7%	3%

Source: voteintention.xlsx, Sheet1. All 63 waves from August 2024 to October 2026 are included in workbook row order, with equal wave spacing rather than elapsed time. Excel row 51 is labelled Apr 8-25 between Mar 25-26 and Apr 22-26; the date is preserved as supplied, not silently corrected. The workbook supplies five parties only, with no People’s Party or Other trend. Scroll the chart on narrow screens; expand the table to view every wave.

If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? (Undecided removed.) (By region, gender and age.)

Liberals lead in British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Conservatives lead in Alberta and Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Liberal support reaches 55% among adults aged 60 and over, while NDP support is highest among those aged 18 to 29 at 17%.

Vote Intention by Region

Party	Canada	BC	AB	SK/MB	ON	QC	ATL
Liberal	46%	42%	37%	41%	50%	44%	54%
Conservative	34%	37%	52%	42%	35%	18%	35%
NDP	9%	14%	9%	12%	10%	3%	9%
Bloc Québécois	7%	0%	0%	0%	0%	31%	0%
Green	3%	5%	1%	4%	2%	2%	2%
People’s Party	1%	1%	1%	1%	2%	2%	0%
Other	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%

The top three parties in each column are highlighted in their party colours. Columns may not total 100% due to rounding.

Vote Intention by Gender and Age

Party	Canada	Male	Female	18 to 29	30 to 44	45 to 59	60 and over
Liberal	46%	47%	45%	39%	39%	42%	55%
Conservative	34%	35%	33%	32%	38%	38%	30%
NDP	9%	8%	10%	17%	11%	8%	4%
Bloc Québécois	7%	7%	7%	4%	6%	7%	9%
Green	3%	2%	3%	5%	3%	2%	1%
People’s Party	1%	1%	1%	1%	2%	2%	0%
Other	0%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%

The top three parties in each column are highlighted in their party colours. Canada is the national reference. Scroll horizontally to see all columns on narrow screens.

If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? (Undecided removed.) (Among those certain to vote.)

Federal Vote Intention Among Those Certain to Vote

Among those certain to vote, Liberals lead 47% to 35%. Both major parties gain 1 point relative to overall results. NDP and Green support are each 1 point lower, while the Bloc Québécois is 1 point higher.

Liberal

47%▲ +1

Conservative

35%▲ +1

NDP

8%▼ -1

Bloc Québécois

8%▲ +1

Green

2%▼ -1

People’s Party

1%NC

Other

0%NC

Turnout boost or suppression is the percentage-point difference from overall results, not a forecast. NC means no change. Shares total 101% due to rounding. Undecided respondents are removed; the subgroup sample size was not supplied.

Methodology

This research was conducted via online survey with 3,197 adults (age 18+) living in Canada from October 2 to 13, 2026.

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data · Canadian Public Affairs Update · October 13, 2026 · n=3,197 · MoE ±1.7%

abacusdata.ca

The regional picture continues to show considerable variation.

In Ontario, the Liberals lead the Conservatives by 15 points, 50% to 35%, with the NDP at 10%.

In British Columbia, the Liberals lead more narrowly, with 42% compared with 37% for the Conservatives and 14% for the NDP.

Alberta remains the strongest Conservative region, with the party at 52%, compared with 37% for the Liberals and 9% for the NDP.

In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the two largest parties are effectively tied, with the Conservatives at 42% and the Liberals at 41%. The NDP receives 12%.

Quebec remains particularly favourable to the Liberals, who receive 44% of committed voters, compared with 31% for the Bloc Québécois and 18% for the Conservatives. The NDP is at 3%.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead by 19 points, with 54% compared with 35% for the Conservatives and 9% for the NDP.

There are also important differences by age.

Among Canadians aged 60 and over, the Liberals receive 55% of the vote, compared with 30% for the Conservatives. That 25-point advantage is considerably larger than the national gap.

Among those aged 45 to 59, the Liberals lead 42% to 38%. Among 30- to 44-year-olds, the two parties are nearly tied, with the Liberals at 39% and the Conservatives at 38%.

Younger Canadians remain more divided. Among those aged 18 to 29, the Liberals receive 39%, the Conservatives 32%, and the NDP 17%.

The Liberals also lead among both men and women. Among men, Liberal support is 47% compared with 35% for the Conservatives. Among women, the numbers are 45% and 33%, respectively.

Educational attainment continues to shape voting preferences. The Liberals lead by 22 points among university graduates, 52% to 30%, but are nearly tied with the Conservatives among Canadians with a high school education or less, 40% to 39%.

The Liberals also continue to have the largest accessible voter pool. Fifty-nine percent of Canadians say they would consider voting Liberal, compared with 48% who would consider voting Conservative and 35% who would consider voting NDP.

These numbers have moved very little since September, when the accessible voter pools were 60%, 47%, and 34%, respectively.

The overall picture is one of remarkable stability in voting preferences, with no evidence in this wave of a meaningful change in the national party standings.

Cost of Living Remains the Top Issue as Concern About Trump Eases

The rising cost of living remains far and away the most frequently selected issue facing Canada.

Sixty-four percent of Canadians identify it as one of the three most important issues facing the country, up one point from our September 23 survey.

Donald Trump and his administration remain second, selected by 40% of Canadians, followed by the economy at 37%, healthcare at 33%, housing affordability and accessibility at 32%, and immigration at 22%.

Crime and public safety is selected by 15%, climate change and the environment by 14%, inequality and poverty and job security and unemployment by 12% each, and the rise of artificial intelligence by 10%.

Compared with our previous survey, the most notable change is the four-point decline in the share of Canadians who select Donald Trump and his administration as a top-three issue.

In early September, that number was 46%. It fell to 44% in our September 23 survey and is now at 40%.

That represents a six-point decline over the past month.

The change is not large enough to suggest that Trump has disappeared as a major concern. Four in ten Canadians continue to rank his administration among the most important issues facing Canada, and the issue remains ahead of the economy, healthcare, housing, and immigration.

Canadian Public Affairs Update · October 2026

Top Issues: Cost of Living Leads at 64%

n=3,197 Canadian adults · October 2–13, 2026 · MoE ±1.7%

Overall Top Issues Regional Breakout Best Party Able to Handle Issue Methodology

What are the 3 most important issues facing Canada today? Please select 3 issues.

Overall Top Issues

The rising cost of living leads at 64%. Donald Trump and his administration ranks second at 40%, followed by the economy at 37%, healthcare at 33% and housing affordability and accessibility at 32%.

The rising cost of living

64%

Donald Trump and his administration

40%

The economy

37%

Healthcare

33%

Housing affordability and accessibility

32%

Immigration

22%

Crime and public safety

15%

Climate change and the environment

14%

Inequality and poverty

12%

Job security and unemployment

12%

The rise of artificial intelligence

10%

The threat posed by China and Russia

5%

Indigenous reconciliation

3%

Respondents selected three issues, so totals exceed 100%. Values are the current October results; no prior-poll values are substituted.

What are the 3 most important issues facing Canada today? Please select 3 issues. (By region.)

The rising cost of living is the leading issue in every region. It reaches 69% in Alberta. Healthcare is selected by 53% in Atlantic Canada, while concern about Donald Trump reaches 49% in Quebec.

Top Issues by Region

Issue	BC	AB	SK/MB	ON	QC	ATL
The rising cost of living	66%	69%	60%	63%	61%	67%
Donald Trump and his administration	34%	37%	37%	40%	49%	31%
The economy	40%	38%	39%	37%	36%	32%
Healthcare	39%	33%	31%	27%	34%	53%
Housing affordability and accessibility	31%	29%	26%	33%	35%	25%
Immigration	15%	23%	31%	22%	28%	12%
Crime and public safety	18%	13%	22%	18%	6%	14%
Climate change and the environment	16%	8%	7%	15%	13%	21%
Inequality and poverty	13%	7%	14%	10%	18%	16%
Job security and unemployment	13%	14%	8%	17%	6%	9%
The rise of artificial intelligence	10%	15%	9%	10%	8%	13%
The threat posed by China and Russia	3%	9%	6%	5%	6%	6%
Indigenous reconciliation	1%	4%	9%	3%	1%	0%

Exactly three issues per column are highlighted. Regional percentages are column percentages. Respondents selected three issues, so column totals exceed 100%. Scroll horizontally to view all six regions.

Which party do you think would do best on… (Among those who rated the issue in their Top 3.)

Best Party Able to Handle Each Issue

Liberals lead on eight issues, Conservatives on four, and Greens on climate. Conservatives lead on cost of living, crime, immigration and job security. On climate, Green support is 38%, ahead of the Liberals at 32%.

Healthcare

Liberal 36%

The rising cost of living

Conservative 35%

Housing affordability and accessibility

Liberal 35%

Crime and public safety

Conservative 59%

The economy

Liberal 44%

Climate change and the environment

Green 38%

The threat posed by China and Russia

Liberal 50%

Inequality and poverty

Liberal 37%

Indigenous reconciliation

Liberal 32%

Immigration

Conservative 61%

The rise of artificial intelligence

Liberal 44%

Donald Trump and his administration

Liberal 64%

Job security and unemployment

Conservative 43%

Issue	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	Unsure	Leading party
Healthcare	36%	24%	18%	18%	Liberal +12
The rising cost of living	33%	35%	10%	17%	Conservative +2
Housing affordability and accessibility	35%	26%	16%	19%	Liberal +9
Crime and public safety	18%	59%	8%	12%	Conservative +41
The economy	44%	41%	3%	10%	Liberal +3
Climate change and the environment	32%	10%	11%	7%	Green +6
The threat posed by China and Russia	50%	32%	4%	8%	Liberal +18
Inequality and poverty	37%	15%	24%	12%	Liberal +13
Indigenous reconciliation	32%	24%	15%	8%	Liberal +8
Immigration	11%	61%	4%	14%	Conservative +50
The rise of artificial intelligence	44%	17%	8%	25%	Liberal +27
Donald Trump and his administration	64%	13%	3%	17%	Liberal +51
Job security and unemployment	30%	43%	10%	12%	Conservative +13

The chart shows the leading party’s share. The table compares Liberal, Conservative and NDP shares, plus Unsure. Smaller-party shares are omitted as requested, with no rescaling. Green is retained only as the climate leader: 38%, versus Liberal 32%, NDP 11% and Conservative 10%. Leading-party margins compare the two highest party shares on each issue, not Unsure. Omitted-party shares and rounding mean displayed rows do not sum to 100%.

Methodology

This research was conducted via online survey with 3,197 adults (age 18+) living in Canada from October 2 to 13, 2026.

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data · Canadian Public Affairs Update · October 13, 2026 · n=3,197 · MoE ±1.7%

abacusdata.ca

At the same time, some domestic issues have become somewhat more prominent.

Housing affordability and accessibility has increased five points since September 23, from 27% to 32%. Healthcare is up two points to 33%, while the economy is unchanged at 37%.

Climate change and the environment has declined three points to 14%.

The broader pattern suggests that while Canadians remain highly attentive to developments south of the border, domestic pressures around affordability, housing, and public services continue to occupy a significant amount of public attention.

Quebec provides a particularly revealing example of this shift.

In our September 23 survey, 59% of Quebecers selected Donald Trump and his administration as a top-three issue, making it the most frequently selected issue in the province, ahead of the rising cost of living at 56%.

Today, 49% of Quebecers identify Trump and his administration as a top issue, a decline of ten points.

Meanwhile, the rising cost of living has increased five points to 61%.

The result is a reversal in the ranking of the two issues.

Three weeks ago, concern about Trump was slightly ahead of the cost of living in Quebec. Today, the cost of living leads by 12 points, 61% to 49%.

Quebecers remain more likely than Canadians nationally to identify Trump and his administration as a major issue, but the gap has narrowed.

Elsewhere, concern about Trump ranges from 31% in Atlantic Canada to 34% in British Columbia, 37% in Alberta and Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and 40% in Ontario.

The rising cost of living, by comparison, is the most frequently selected issue in every region of the country.

Liberals Retain a Large Advantage on Trump, While Conservatives Lead on Immigration and Crime

Our survey also asks Canadians which political party they think would do the best job dealing with the issues they identify as most important.

The results reveal substantial differences in how the parties are perceived across the public agenda.

Among Canadians who select Donald Trump and his administration as a top-three issue, 64% think the Liberal Party would do the best job dealing with it, compared with 13% who select the Conservatives.

That represents a 51-point Liberal advantage.

The Liberal advantage remains substantial, although its share on this measure is down from 68% in our September 23 survey.

The Liberals are also ahead among those concerned about the threat posed by China and Russia, with 50% choosing the Liberals and 32% the Conservatives.

On the economy, the two parties are much more closely matched. Forty-four percent of Canadians who select the economy as a top-three issue think the Liberals would do the best job handling it, compared with 41% who select the Conservatives.

On healthcare, the Liberals lead 36% to 24%, with the NDP selected by 18%.

On housing affordability and accessibility, the Liberals are selected by 35%, the Conservatives by 26%, and the NDP by 16%.

But the picture is different on other issues.

Among Canadians who identify immigration as one of their three most important concerns, 61% select the Conservatives as the party best able to deal with it, compared with 11% who select the Liberals.

On crime and public safety, the Conservatives lead 59% to 18%.

On job security and unemployment, the Conservatives are selected by 43%, compared with 30% for the Liberals.

And on the rising cost of living, the two parties are closely matched, with 35% selecting the Conservatives and 33% the Liberals.

There is also a distinctive result on climate change and the environment. Among Canadians who identify it as a top-three issue, the Green Party is selected by 38%, compared with 32% for the Liberals and 10% for the Conservatives.

Government Approval Falls Three Points to 57%

Overall approval of the federal government led by Mark Carney has declined since our September 23 survey.

Fifty-seven percent of Canadians now approve of the job the government is doing, while 29% disapprove and 14% neither approve nor disapprove.

Three weeks ago, approval stood at 60% and disapproval at 25%.

Approval has therefore fallen three points, while disapproval has increased four.

The government’s net approval rating is now +28, compared with +35 in our previous survey.

Twenty-two percent strongly approve of the government’s performance, while 35% somewhat approve.

The decline comes after a period in which overall approval had been strengthening. Earlier this year, approval was in the low 50s before moving into the high 50s and reaching 60% in late September.

The latest result brings approval back to 57%.

That remains a clear majority of Canadians who approve of the government’s performance, and the balance of opinion remains positive.

Canadian Public Affairs Update · October 2026

Government Approval: 57% Approve of the Federal Government

n=3,197 Canadian adults · October 2–13, 2026 · MoE ±1.7%

Overall Trend Line Methodology

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job the federal government led by Mark Carney is doing?

Overall Government Approval

A majority of Canadians approve of the federal government, at 57%. Approval is down 3 points since September 23, while disapproval is up 4 points to 29%. Fourteen per cent neither approve nor disapprove.

Approve

57%

▼ -3 since September 23

Neither

14%

Neither approve nor disapprove

Disapprove

29%

▲ +4 since September 23

Strongly approve

22%

Somewhat approve

35%

Neither approve nor disapprove

14%

Somewhat disapprove

14%

Strongly disapprove

16%

Approve combines strongly and somewhat approve; disapprove combines somewhat and strongly disapprove. The printed totals are preserved. Rounded disapproval components 14% and 16% sum to 30%, while the slide and unrounded Excel series report 29%. All five rounded responses total 101%. Changes are from September 23, 2026.

Overall approval and disapproval of the federal government over time.

Government Approval Trend

The October 13 Excel wave rounds to 57% approval and 29% disapproval. The September 23 wave rounds to 60% approval and 25% disapproval, matching the slide’s changes of -3 and +4 points.

Approve 57%Disapprove 29%

View all 56 trend waves

Wave	Approve	Disapprove
July 23-24	25%	59%
Aug 7-24	26.7298%	57.4776%
Aug 18-24	25%	58%
Sept 12-24	24%	62%
Sept 26-24	24.7024%	59.2959%
Oct 10-24	25.5063%	58.8618%
Oct 22-24	24.4886%	61.3073%
Nov 5-24	24.5701%	61.5693%
Nov 20-24	24.6646%	60.8576%
Dec 4-24	24.4468%	61.0043%
Dec 16-24	25%	61%
Dec 17-24	22%	62%
Jan 9-25	21%	63%
Jan 14-25	22%	64%
Jan 27-25	23%	60%
Feb 11-25	27.3308%	56.004%
Feb 25-25	28.1529%	55.7469%
Mar 12-25	34%	50%
Mar 20-25	39.1849%	25.4631%
Mar 25-25	41%	25%
Apr 8-25	49%	24%
May 21-25	50.3305%	23.7012%
Jun 5-25	53.3861%	22.8718%
Jun 19-25	52.1885%	25.2537%
July 2-25	51.9522%	24.8449%
July 15-27	51.6391%	26.6999%
Aug 7-25	49.6036%	27.0588%
Aug 20-25	49.1921%	29.6926%
Sept 2-25	48.4733%	30.2995%
Sept 17-25	50%	30%
Oct 1-25	46.1453%	31.1676%
Oct 15-25	48%	32%
Oct 29-25	46.8169%	33.6428%
Nov 6-25	44.1794%	34.4653%
Nov 27-25	47.5825%	31.5941%
Dec 10-25	47.1715%	34.6183%
Jan 14-26	47.2833%	33.7506%
Jan 27-26	54%	31%
Feb 10-26	51.7779%	28.7003%
Feb 24-26	52.4853%	29.8217%
Mar 11-26	55.592%	28.4798%
Mar 25-26	53.8287%	29.6911%
Apr 8-26	53.7051%	30.072%
Apr 22-26	54.2986%	28.888%
May 6-26	56.7348%	27.9148%
May 20-26	58.5683%	26.6468%
Jun 3-26	52.432%	31.1293%
Jun 17-26	54.9047%	30.4709%
July 2-26	53.9463%	31.1286%
July 16-26	52.454%	31.7133%
July 29-26	52.1898%	32.0635%
Aug 12-26	52.382%	30.9921%
Aug 26-26	56.1397%	28.7899%
Sept 10-26	58.5125%	26.6786%
Sept 23-26	60.1383%	24.8456%
Oct 13-26	57.3048%	29.0981%

Source: governmentapproval.xlsx, Sheet1. All 56 observations are included in workbook row order with equal wave spacing, not elapsed time. The chart retains unrounded workbook percentages; the latest legend rounds to whole percentages. The expandable table lists every wave. Changes use September 23, 2026 as the baseline.

Methodology

This research was conducted via online survey with 3,197 adults (age 18+) living in Canada from October 2 to 13, 2026.

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data · Canadian Public Affairs Update · October 13, 2026 · n=3,197 · MoE ±1.7%

abacusdata.ca

Carney’s Personal Rating Remains Strong, but Has Slipped from Its September High

Mark Carney continues to have a positive overall impression rating, although his numbers have softened since our previous survey.

Fifty-five percent of Canadians have a positive impression of the Prime Minister, while 29% have a negative impression and 13% are neutral.

That produces a net impression of +26.

In our September 23 survey, Carney’s net impression reached +31, the highest level we had recorded for him.

Since then, his positive rating has declined one point, from 56% to 55%, while his negative rating has increased four points, from 25% to 29%.

His net impression has therefore fallen five points.

Despite that decline, Carney continues to have a substantially more positive net impression than the other major federal party leaders.

Pierre Poilievre is viewed positively by 37% of Canadians and negatively by 44%, producing a reported net impression of -8.

That represents an improvement from the -12 net impression recorded in our September 23 survey, with his positive rating increasing three points and his negative rating declining one.

Avi Lewis is viewed positively by 18% and negatively by 29%, for a net impression of -11. Twenty-three percent say they do not know enough about him to offer an opinion.

Carney’s standing remains positive across every region of the country, although there are meaningful differences.

His net impression is +42 in Quebec, +27 in Ontario, +22 in British Columbia, +21 in Atlantic Canada, +16 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and +7 in Alberta.

Compared with September 23, his net rating is lower in every region. The largest change is in Alberta, where it has fallen from +20 to +7.

Age also continues to produce substantial differences.

Among Canadians aged 60 and over, Carney’s net impression is +44. It is +27 among those aged 18 to 29, +16 among those aged 45 to 59, and +10 among those aged 30 to 44.

His rating is also strongly associated with past voting behaviour.

Among those who voted Liberal in 2025, Carney’s net impression is +81. It is +28 among former NDP voters and +21 among Bloc Québécois voters, while it is -32 among Conservative voters.

Poilievre’s personal ratings show a somewhat different pattern.

His net impression is positive in Alberta (+16) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (+10), but negative in Ontario (-9), Quebec (-22), Atlantic Canada (-13), and British Columbia (-5).

He is also viewed more positively by younger Canadians, with a net impression of +14 among those aged 18 to 29, compared with -27 among those aged 60 and over.

The overall picture is that Carney retains a substantial advantage in personal impressions, even as the gap between his ratings and those of Poilievre has narrowed somewhat since late September.

Canadian Public Affairs Update · October 2026

Leader Impressions: Carney Records a +26 Net Rating

n=3,197 Canadian adults · October 2–13, 2026 · MoE ±1.7%

Overall Comparison Trend Line Subgroups: Carney Subgroups: Poilievre Methodology

Do you have a positive or negative impression of the following people?

Overall Leader Comparison

Mark Carney has a net-positive impression of +26. Pierre Poilievre is at -8 and Avi Lewis at -11. Carney is viewed positively by 55%, compared with 37% for Poilievre and 18% for Lewis.

Mark Carney

Liberal leader

Net +26

Positive 55%

Neutral 13%

Negative 29%

Don't know enough to say 2%

Pierre Poilievre

Conservative leader

Net -8

Positive 37%

Neutral 16%

Negative 44%

Don't know enough to say 3%

Avi Lewis

NDP leader

Net -11

Positive 18%

Neutral 30%

Negative 29%

Don't know enough to say 23%

Net impression is positive minus negative, reported in percentage points. Printed net values are preserved: Poilievre is -8, although rounded 37% positive and 44% negative produce -7. Rounded component totals may differ from 100%.

Net impression of Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre over time.

Carney versus Poilievre: Net Impression

The October 13 workbook wave ends at Carney +26 and Poilievre -8. Since September 23, Carney falls 5 points from +31 while Poilievre improves 3 points from -11.

Mark Carney +26Pierre Poilievre -8

View all 49 trend waves

Wave	Mark Carney	Pierre Poilievre
Jan 27-25	+13	0
Feb 11-25	+15	-4
Feb 25-25	+10	0
Mar 11-25	+7	-7
Mar 20-25	+12	-7
Mar 25-25	+11	-5
Mar 27-25	+11	-8
Apr 3-25	+15	-3
Apr 8-25	+19	-6
Apr 10-25	+20	-5
Apr 15-25	+13	-3
Apr 21-25	+13	-7
Apr 27-25	+12	-3
May 5-25	+17	+2
May 21-25	+20	-2
Jun 5-25	+24	-5
Jun 19-25	+19	0
July 2-25	+22	-4
July 15-25	+21	-4
Aug 7-25	+19	+1
Aug 20-25	+17	-2
Sept 2-25	+14	-3
Sept 17-25	+18	-1
Oct 1-25	+14	-2
Oct 15-25	+15	-3
Oct 29-25	+14	-3
Nov 6-25	+12	-7
Nov 27-25	+14	-3
Dec 10-25	+10	-5
Jan 14-26	+13	-13
Jan 16-26	+23	-13
Jan 27-26	+22	-6
Feb 24-26	+20	-7
Mar 11-26	+25	-8
Mar 25-26	+21	-4
Apr 8-26	+22	-6
Apr 22-26	+22	-7
May 6-26	+26	-10
May 20-26	+30	-6
Jun 3-26	+21	-8
Jun 17-26	+21	-6
July 2-26	+19	-5
July 16-26	+19	-7
July 29-26	+17	-6
Aug 12-26	+20	-11
Aug 26-26	+25	-11
Sept 10-26	+27	-13
Sept 23-26	+31	-11
Oct 13-26	+26	-8

Source: leaderimpressions.xlsx, Sheet1. All 49 observations are plotted in workbook row order with equal wave spacing, not elapsed time. Net impression is measured in percentage points; all waves are available in the expandable table.

Do you have a positive or negative impression of Mark Carney? (Net impression by subgroup.)

Mark Carney Net Impression by Subgroup

Carney’s net impression is positive in every region. His net rating reaches +42 in Quebec and +44 among adults aged 60 and over. Among 2025 Liberal voters it is +81, compared with -32 among Conservative voters.

Overall

Canada+26

Region

BC+22

AB+7

SK/MB+16

ON+27

QC+42

ATL+21

Gender

Male+28

Female+24

Age

18 to 29+27

30 to 44+10

45 to 59+16

60 and over+44

Household income

Under $35K+8

$35K to $50K+28

$50K to $75K+29

$75K to $100K+34

$100K++30

Community

Urban+27

Suburban+31

Rural+10

2025 Vote

Liberal+81

Conservative-32

NDP+28

BQ+21

Values are printed net impressions in percentage points. The shared signed scale is -100 to +100, with zero at the centre. Green denotes positive and red negative. The national reference is shown once; 2025 vote is past federal vote choice, not current intention.

Do you have a positive or negative impression of Pierre Poilievre? (Net impression by subgroup.)

Pierre Poilievre Net Impression by Subgroup

Poilievre’s net impression is positive in Alberta and Saskatchewan and Manitoba. His net rating is +16 in Alberta and -22 in Quebec. Among adults aged 18 to 29 it is +14, compared with -27 among those aged 60 and over.

Overall

Canada-8

Region

BC-5

AB+16

SK/MB+10

ON-9

QC-22

ATL-13

Gender

Male-7

Female-9

Age

18 to 29+14

30 to 44+3

45 to 59-4

60 and over-27

Household income

Under $35K-14

$35K to $50K-7

$50K to $75K-12

$75K to $100K-5

$100K+-2

Community

Urban-5

Suburban-12

Rural-5

2025 Vote

Liberal-56

Conservative+71

NDP-49

BQ-56

Values are printed net impressions in percentage points. The shared signed scale is -100 to +100, with zero at the centre. Green denotes positive and red negative. The national reference is shown once; 2025 vote is past federal vote choice, not current intention.

Methodology

This research was conducted via online survey with 3,197 adults (age 18+) living in Canada from October 2 to 13, 2026.

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data · Canadian Public Affairs Update · October 13, 2026 · n=3,197 · MoE ±1.7%

abacusdata.ca

Optimism About Canada Edges Lower, but Remains Far Above Views of the World

Forty-seven percent of Canadians now believe the country is heading in the right direction, while 42% think Canada is on the wrong track.

Compared with our September 23 survey, the share who think Canada is heading in the right direction is down one point, while the share who think it is on the wrong track is up three.

The movement is modest, but it follows a period in which optimism about the country had been steadily improving.

And the contrast between how Canadians view their own country and how they view the rest of the world remains substantial.

Only 15% believe the world is heading in the right direction, while 74% think it is on the wrong track.

For the United States, 13% think the country is heading in the right direction, while 80% believe it is on the wrong track.

The gap between optimism about Canada and optimism about the world is therefore 32 points — unchanged from our September 23 survey.

There are some notable regional differences.

Fifty-three percent of Canadians in Saskatchewan and Manitoba believe Canada is heading in the right direction, as do 50% in Ontario, 46% in British Columbia, 44% in Atlantic Canada, 43% in Alberta, and 42% in Quebec.

Compared with September 23, optimism is lower in British Columbia, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, while it is somewhat higher in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and Ontario.

Age also matters.

Fifty-three percent of Canadians aged 60 and over believe the country is heading in the right direction, compared with 47% of those aged 18 to 29, 44% of those aged 45 to 59, and 38% of those aged 30 to 44.

The relationship with past voting behaviour is equally clear.

Among those who voted Liberal in 2025, 69% think Canada is heading in the right direction. That falls to 40% among former NDP voters, 32% among Bloc voters, and 27% among Conservative voters.

The broader finding is that while optimism about Canada has edged lower, Canadians remain considerably more positive about the country’s direction than they are about conditions beyond its borders.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto:

“This is another survey where the headline vote-intention numbers tell a story of stability, but the underlying measures suggest that the political environment is not quite as positive for the government as it was three weeks ago.

The Liberals remain at 46%. The Conservatives remain at 34%. The 12-point Liberal lead has not changed.

And in a political environment where Canadians continue to face substantial economic uncertainty, that stability is notable.

But I think there are two important things worth paying attention to in this wave.

First, the focus on Donald Trump and his administration is easing slightly.

A month ago, 46% of Canadians selected Trump and his administration as one of the three most important issues facing the country. That is now down to 40%.

In Quebec, the change is even larger. Concern about Trump has fallen from 59% three weeks ago to 49% today, while concern about the rising cost of living has moved in the opposite direction.

This matters because the Liberals continue to have a very substantial advantage over the Conservatives when Canadians are asked which party is best able to deal with Trump and his administration.

Among those who identify it as a top issue, 64% choose the Liberals compared with 13% who choose the Conservatives.

As the relative importance of Trump declines, even modestly, the composition of the public agenda changes.

And the issues that are becoming more prominent, including housing affordability, are ones where Canadians are asking difficult questions about the government’s performance and where the parties’ perceived advantages are not always as clear.

Second, there has been some softening in how Canadians are evaluating the government and the Prime Minister.

Government approval has fallen from 60% to 57%. Disapproval has increased from 25% to 29%. Carney’s net impression has fallen from +31 to +26, while Poilievre’s has improved from -12 to -8. And the share of Canadians who think the country is heading in the right direction has edged lower, while the share who think it is on the wrong track has increased.

None of these changes, on its own, represents a dramatic shift. But taken together, they suggest that the improvement in public sentiment we saw through September has at least temporarily levelled off.

For the Conservatives, the challenge remains that even though concern about affordability is extraordinarily high and assessments of the government have softened somewhat, their national vote share remains at 34%.

For the Liberals, the challenge is that the issues dominating public attention are increasingly centred on domestic pressures where the government faces more mixed assessments.

The cost of living remains the top issue by a considerable margin. Housing affordability has become more prominent. And the economy continues to rank among the most important concerns facing the country.

So the story here is not a sudden change in the federal political landscape.

It is that a stable 12-point Liberal lead now sits alongside a somewhat less positive assessment of the government, a slightly narrower personal ratings gap between the two main party leaders, and a public agenda that is shifting modestly away from Trump and toward domestic concerns.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 3,197 Canadian adults from October 2 to 13, 2026.

A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage potential skews in the data from a single source.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Canada’s population.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Totals may not add to 100 because of rounding.

About Abacus Data

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

With offices in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto, and Winnipeg, we serve clients across Canada and the United States.

The post Liberal 12-point lead holds as focus on Trump fades slightly appeared first on Abacus Data.

For many, homelessness is also personal. More than one in ten (11%) say they have experienced it themselves – roughly 3.7 million adults – and more than a third (36%), or about 12 million, know someone who has, up six points since 2024.

That visibility and proximity are shaping how people feel about the issue. Canadians are concerned about what homelessness means for their communities, but they are also deeply concerned about the people experiencing it.

But that does not mean Canadians have given up.

Fully 84% believe homelessness can be meaningfully reduced. That includes 12% who think it can be eliminated entirely and another 37% who believe it can become infrequent, short and non-recurring. And 73% prioritize reducing homelessness, with nearly half (49%) saying they want to see evidence that solutions work and public resources are being used effectively. Most also expect governments to work together, with 85% saying they need to collaborate more effectively.

The public is worried, but it still believes progress is possible.

Canadians are frustrated, but just as compassionate

There is no single emotion that defines the public response to homelessness.

Safety concerns are felt by 78% of Canadians, but almost as many feel compassion (77%). At the same time, 76% feel helpless and 75% frustrated. Asked specifically about people experiencing homelessness, 61% express concern for their well-being and 58% sympathy or compassion, compared with 28% who feel frustration or irritation and 15% who express judgment or negativity.

Those feelings are becoming more intense. Compared with a year ago, 60% say they feel more compassion, while 57% feel more frustrated.

Most notable may be the growing pessimism surrounding the issue. Nearly two-thirds (63%) say they have become less optimistic that homelessness can be reduced. But increasingly, they want to see evidence that something is actually changing.

Canadians want progress they can actually see

What would convince Canadians things are getting better?

For 57%, it would be fewer people sleeping on the streets. Another 49% point to fewer encampments and visible signs of homelessness. Among those who have experienced homelessness or know someone who has, there is greater emphasis on more people entering stable housing and having more affordable housing available.

This focus on visible progress matters because homelessness is increasingly associated with broader concerns about communities. Canadians identify increased crime (49%) and declining public safety (47%) among the most significant community impacts of homelessness.

Those concerns help explain why enforcement remains part of the public conversation. But concern about safety should not be confused with a belief that enforcement is the most effective way to reduce homelessness.

When Canadians are asked which approaches they believe would actually be most effective, housing and support services come out ahead. Supportive housing that combines housing with ongoing services is selected by 35%, affordable housing for the lowest-income households by 34%, and expanded mental health and addiction services by 32%. Enforcement does not emerge among the leading approaches.

There is a distinction here between managing the visible consequences of homelessness and reducing homelessness itself. Canadians may see a role for enforcement in responding to immediate community concerns, but they place greater confidence in solutions that address why people are homeless and help move them into greater stability.

The political pressure may be greatest around what people can see today. But the public’s test of success is whether fewer people experience homelessness tomorrow.

Canadians expect governments to work together

There is also little sense that homelessness belongs to one government alone.

62% identify provincial governments as responsible for addressing homelessness, 57% point to the federal government and 54% to municipalities.

What Canadians want most is for each level of government to work together.

Fully 85% agree governments need to collaborate more effectively, 84% want greater support for local governments, 80% want communities to have flexibility to respond to local circumstances, and 77% support national coordination.

Yet only 34% believe governments are currently investing enough to address homelessness.

The expectation is not that one order of government takes over. It is that governments stop working in isolation and connect resources, services and local responses more effectively.

There is broad support for solutions

When Canadians are presented with potential responses to homelessness, there is considerable agreement.

Eight in ten (80%) support expanding mental health and addiction services. Seventy-seven percent support affordable housing, while 76% support supportive housing and better government coordination. This suggests that mental health and addiction services should be paired with supportive housing.

Housing benefits, a key tool for preventing homelessness, also attract significant support. Sixty-nine percent believe they would be effective at preventing or reducing homelessness, while 65% initially support governments providing a housing benefit targeted to people at greatest risk of losing their housing or experiencing homelessness. After learning that it can help people remain housed while reducing longer-term costs for healthcare, emergency services, shelters and the justice system, support for government investment rises to 72%, with just 7% opposed.

Canadians also respond positively to a more coordinated approach. Survey respondents were shown a short description of a community-based model that brings local organizations, governments and service providers together to use local data, coordinate housing and services, and measure whether people are moving into stable housing.

Seventy-two percent believe this model would be effective at reducing homelessness in their community, and 67% support the approach.

When Canadians are asked to choose among priorities, 34% select expanded mental health and addiction services, 31% better local coordination through this model, and 30% more affordable housing. Enforcement is prioritized by considerably fewer Canadians.

Taken together, the public response points toward something more substantial than simply spending more or responding more forcefully. Canadians are frustrated by what they are seeing, and they are worried about and compassionate toward the people experiencing homelessness. But more than anything, they want durable, effective solutions. They are ready to back a model where governments invest in housing and supports, communities coordinate how those resources are used, and success is measured by whether homelessness actually declines.

The Upshot

There is an important political choice emerging around homelessness in Canada.

As the problem becomes more visible, governments face understandable pressure to demonstrate that they are responding. Encampments, people sleeping outside and concerns about public safety are highly visible. They create an immediate demand to do something.

But this research suggests Canadians are making an important distinction between action that is visible and action that is effective.

They want the immediate pressures facing communities addressed. But they do not see enforcement as the answer. When Canadians consider what will actually reduce homelessness, they put greater weight on housing, mental health and addiction treatment services, prevention and better coordination.

That matters as governments make decisions about the next phase of housing and homelessness policy.

The public is not asking governments to choose between compassion and community safety. Most want both. And they expect different orders of government to work together to deliver it.

There is considerable permission to act. Large majorities support many of the tools available, 85% want better collaboration between governments, and 84% still believe homelessness can be meaningfully reduced.

But that confidence should not be taken for granted.

The political risk is responding to the visibility of homelessness without changing its trajectory. If people continue to see more homelessness despite governments announcing new programs, investments or enforcement measures, frustration is unlikely to disappear.

The opportunity is to make the next phase of the response much more explicitly about outcomes: preventing people from becoming homeless in the first place, helping those who do become homeless move into stable housing faster, connecting housing with the treatment and supports people need, and giving communities the tools and coordination required to make the system work locally.

Then measure it, report it and make sure Canadians can see and experience the improvement in their own communities.

Canadians are not simply asking governments to do more about homelessness. They are asking them to do what will make a visible, lasting difference.

At a moment when important choices are being made about what comes next, that may be the clearest direction the public can give.

Methodology

The survey was conducted across two surveys from July 16 to 28, 2026 with 3,064 Canadian adults. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same sizes is +/- 1.77%.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Canadian Alliance to End Homelessness.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

About Abacus Data

Abacus Data is a Canadian public opinion and market research firm founded in 2010 by David Coletto, its Chair and Chief Executive Officer. With offices in Ottawa, Toronto, Halifax and Winnipeg, Abacus conducts national and regional research for governments, associations, corporations and campaigns, and is the official pollster of the Toronto Star.

The firm’s national tracking of federal vote intention, leader impressions and the issues Canadians care about is among the most closely followed in the country. Its Precarity Mindset research, which measures the felt sense among Canadians that what they have could be taken away, provides the framework this study draws on to explain why a public that feels under threat is open to big ideas and still cautious about the details.

Abacus Data’s approach combines rigorous survey design and analysis with plain-language reporting built to be used, not filed.

The post Canadians Are Worried About Homelessness, but Believe Progress is Possible. They Expect Governments to Deliver Visible, Effective Solutions. appeared first on Abacus Data.

Two-thirds of Canadians (67%) say getting major projects built quickly is now a question of Canada’s sovereignty. Yet only 24% believe Canada is currently building too few major projects.

That tension runs throughout the research.

Half of Canadians (52%) approve of how the Carney government is handling major projects, but just 17% say they have seen real progress over the past year. And expectations are rising: 61% say construction should already be underway or begin within the next year.

The federal Major Projects Office was established in August 2025 to help accelerate nation-building projects and streamline federal processes. But when Canadians are asked what they are prepared to trade for greater speed, the limits become clear.

None of five potential shortcuts tested is acceptable to a majority. Shorter environmental reviews divide opinion. Most reject proceeding without the agreement of affected Indigenous communities. And only 22% would accept foreign companies owning a majority stake in a project.

What Canadians want built also varies sharply. Pipelines top the national list at 41%, but regional, partisan, generational and economic divides quickly emerge beneath that headline.

The result is a more complicated picture of Canada’s nation-building moment than the topline numbers suggest.

Who is most impatient? Where is foreign ownership least acceptable? Which regions want pipelines, housing, transit or critical minerals first? And what changes depending on whether Canadians are worried most about the U.S., the economy or their jobs?

Share your information below to receive the full report, Building in a Hurry: What Canadians Will and Will Not Trade for Speed on Major Projects.

For more information about this poll, please contact:

David Coletto
Founder & CEO
Abacus Data

Ashley Csanady
Senior Vice President
Vantage

About Vantage

Vantage is an independent government relations, strategic communications and advocacy firm with offices in Toronto and Ottawa. Founded in 2016 and formerly McMillan Vantage, the firm marked its tenth anniversary in 2026 by reintroducing itself as a fully independent partnership.

Its team of more than 30 includes former advisors to prime ministers, premiers and ministers, senior public servants, communications executives and journalists. Vantage works with clients in sectors that include defence and procurement, housing, critical minerals, energy and infrastructure, and health, with a focus on advocacy that works rather than advocacy that merely looks good.

Vantage describes its approach as clarity in chaos and confidence in action. Its partners are Robyn Osgood (Chief Executive Officer), founding partners Richard Mahoney and Mark Resnick, and Karl Baldauf, Andrea Donlan, D’arci McFadden and Tausha Michaud.

About Abacus Data

Abacus Data is a Canadian public opinion and market research firm founded in 2010 by David Coletto, its Chair and Chief Executive Officer. With offices in Ottawa, Toronto, Halifax and Winnipeg, Abacus conducts national and regional research for governments, associations, corporations and campaigns, and is the official pollster of the Toronto Star.

The firm’s national tracking of federal vote intention, leader impressions and the issues Canadians care about is among the most closely followed in the country. Its Precarity Mindset research, which measures the felt sense among Canadians that what they have could be taken away, provides the framework this study draws on to explain why a public that feels under threat is open to big ideas and still cautious about the details.

Abacus Data’s approach combines rigorous survey design and analysis with plain-language reporting built to be used, not filed.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,278 Canadian adults from September 18 to 22, 2026. Respondents were drawn from a set of partner online panels and invited to complete the survey. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population.

The major projects module was designed jointly by Vantage and Abacus Data and fielded on the Abacus Data national omnibus. Nine questions covered the perceived build deficit, a paired-statement test of the sovereignty argument for speed, awareness of the Major Projects Office, approval of the Carney government’s handling of major projects, perceived progress over the past year, the time respondents consider reasonable before construction is underway, the acceptability of five measures that would speed up projects, the top three reasons projects do not get built, and the projects respondents most want built first. The two statements in the sovereignty question were shown in rotated order, and the five trade-off measures were randomized.

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When the first tariffs hit in February 2025, Canadians told us they would answer with their wallets. Most consumer reactions of that kind fade within a season. This one has not. Nineteen months later, 77% of Canadians say they will avoid American products entirely or buy as few as they can, statistically identical to the 78% who said so in the first week of the trade war.

More striking, the share who report have actually done something about it has risen on all seven behaviours we measure, from cancelling a trip south to switching which brands go in the cart. What has not changed is the set of beliefs underneath: six in ten still assume Canadian-made means paying more, and the public is no better at identifying Canadian brands than it was when the boycott began.

The intent to avoid American products has not moved

In February 2025, 41% of Canadians said they would do everything they could to avoid anything made in the United States or by American companies, and another 37% said they would try to buy as few American goods as possible. In September 2026 the figures are 37% and 40%. The hard core has softened by 4 points, and those people appear to have moved to the softer position rather than out of the boycott, because the combined share is 78% then and 77% now.

The share who say the tariffs will not change their purchasing much has edged up from 12% to 14%, and fewer are undecided (10% then, 8% now). Nineteen months in, the public has sorted itself, and the sorting favours avoidance by a wide margin.

Consideration has turned into action on every measure

The February survey caught Canadians in the act of deciding. Just over half (53%) had already bought more Canadian products, and 37% more were considering it. By September, 61% had done it. The pattern repeats on every item. The share who had tried not to buy American products rose from 38% to 51%. The share who had cancelled a trip to the United States rose from 32% to 52% of those for whom a trip was on the table, the largest change we recorded.

The smaller behaviours moved too: avoiding American gas stations (33% to 39%), avoiding American retailers such as Walmart (20% to 26%), reducing purchases on Amazon (21% to 26%) and cancelling American streaming services (14% to 20%). In each case the pool of people still “considering” shrank as the “done” column grew. The combined share who had done or considered each behaviour is roughly where it was in February; what changed is the conversion rate. That is the difference between a mood and a habit.

The hard core is older, and it softened everywhere except among the young

The people most committed to avoiding American products have always been older. In February 2025, 54% of Canadians 60 and over chose the strongest option, against 31% of those under 30. In September 2026 the figures are 48% and 32%. Every group over 30 softened by four to six points: 34% to 30% among those 30 to 44, and 39% to 33% among those 45 to 59. The only group that did not fade is the under-30s, who were never absolutists in the first place. They live in the “try” column, and they are still there.

Made in Canada still means paying more, in the public’s mind

The behaviour changed. The beliefs underneath it did not. In February 2025, 60% of Canadians thought it was definitely or probably true that products made in Canada usually cost more than similar American products. In September 2026, 61% think so. About seven in ten (71% then, 72% now) recognize that many American-made food and household goods contain Canadian ingredients or parts. And fewer than half believe that most of the packaged food in Canadian grocery stores is made in Canada, though that share has risen from 43% to 48%.

Put those together and you have a public that has spent nineteen months trying to buy Canadian while still assuming it is the expensive option and still unsure which products qualify.

Canadians still cannot tell which brands are Canadian

We asked about four companies in both waves. Molson is read as Canadian by 71% in February 2025 and 73% now. Boston Pizza is read as Canadian by fewer than half (43% then, 47% now), with roughly four in ten calling it American in both waves. Costco is seen as American by 71% then and 75% now. Nestlé, which is Swiss, splits three ways: about a quarter say Canadian, four in ten say American and the rest say neither or are not sure, in both waves.

None of these moved by more than four points. Nineteen months of maple leaves on shelf tags has not taught the public much about who owns what. Origin does not get absorbed; it has to be told, on the pack and at the shelf, every time.

What Canadians want from grocers is exactly what they wanted in February 2025

Asked what Canadian grocery retailers should do if the United States imposes tariffs, nine in ten want stores to clearly indicate which products are made in Canada (91% then, 89% now). Nearly as many want more alternatives from Canadian or non-U.S. suppliers (88% and 87%). And seven in ten still want as many American-made products as possible taken off the shelves (71% and 70%). None of these has moved by more than two points. The mandate to the shelf is intact.

The Upshot

The boycott hardened into a habit. Avoid-American intent is unchanged at 77%, and every behaviour we track rose. Brands and retailers planning for a return to 2024 shopping patterns should plan for something else.

Origin is a reassurance cue, not a pricing strategy. Canadians want to buy Canadian, and our July 2026 research found only one in five will do so when it costs noticeably more. Six in ten still assume Canadian-made means paying more. The flag earns consideration; the price still has to compete.

Say it every time. With brand origin still a guessing game and 89% asking for clear labelling, the brands and banners that make origin obvious will keep collecting the benefit of a preference the public has now held for nineteen months.\

Methodology

In February 2025, the week the first U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods took effect, Abacus Data surveyed 3,000 Canadian adults (February 5 to 11, 2025) about how the tariffs would change what they buy. In September 2026 we asked the same questions again of 1,479 Canadian adults from September 4 to 9, 2026.

Both surveys were conducted online with panelists from a blend of partner panels and weighted to census data. For the behaviour battery, respondents who said an item did not apply to them are excluded from both waves; the September shares were rebased by Abacus Data from published figures.

The surveys were paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

About Abacus Data

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

With offices in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto, and now in Winnipeg following our acquisition of Probe Research, we can serve clients across the country.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

The post Nineteen months on, the Buy Canadian shopper has not gone home appeared first on Abacus Data.

Ihor Korbabicz, our President, is now a shareholder and co-owner of Abacus Data.

Ihor joined Abacus in May 2017. In the nine years since, he has become a critical member of our executive team and, frankly, indispensable to me. As President, he manages the day-to-day operations of the business, serves several of our most important clients, and works alongside me to execute on our strategic priorities. Anyone who has worked with Ihor knows what he brings: rigour, judgment, a dry sense of humour, calm under pressure, and a genuine care for the people around him. Our clients trust him. Our team trusts him and I trust him completely.

This isn’t a symbolic gesture. It’s a recognition that the growth we’ve experienced, and the growth still ahead of us, is something Ihor helped build and will help lead.

And that growth story is worth telling.

Abacus Data has grown revenue by 10 to 12% a year, with revenue reaching $6 million in 2026. We’re now a team of 25, with offices in Ottawa, Toronto, Halifax, and now Winnipeg following the acquisition of Probe Research last month. We have team members across the country in several other communities.

We are one of Canada’s most consistently accurate national pollsters, and we’re proud to work with some of the most consequential organizations in the country and beyond: Google, Airbnb, Anthropic, Wealthsimple, Mattamy Homes, the Canadian Real Estate Association, CUPE, the Canadian Medical Association, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, and federal and provincial governments, among many others.

None of that happens without a strong leadership team. And it certainly doesn’t happen without Ihor.

Bringing him in as a shareholder is part of a deliberate effort to broaden ownership at Abacus, to make sure the people driving this firm forward share in what we’re building together. I believe the best companies are owned, at least in part, by the people who make them great and have an ownership mindset. This is us putting that belief into practice.

To our clients: this change means more of what you already count on from us. Continuity, stability, and a leadership team that is personally invested, in every sense, in your success.

To our team: Ihor’s ownership stake is a signal of where we’re headed. We’re building a firm designed to last, led by people committed to it for the long run.

And to Ihor: thank you. For nine years of partnership, for the standard you set every day, and for believing in what Abacus Data can be. I’m proud to call you a co-owner.

The best is ahead of us.

David Coletto Founder, Chair & CEO Abacus Data

The post Ihor Korbabicz Joins the Abacus Data Ownership Team appeared first on Abacus Data.

Since our previous survey left the field on September 9, Prime Minister Mark Carney met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Calgary, where the two countries signed a 100-year partnership declaration focused on defence, security, trade, reconstruction and technology. Carney then convened his cabinet in Banff for a two-day planning retreat focused on the fall agenda, the economy and the intensifying trade dispute with the United States.

Days later, the government hosted the first Canada Investment Summit in Toronto. The federal government says the summit produced nearly $500 billion in investment commitments. Carney also announced a major expansion of immediate expensing for business investment and plans to seek private investment through long-term concessions to operate Canada’s four largest airports, while retaining public ownership of the underlying land and assets.

Carney then travelled to Europe, addressing the European Parliament on September 17 and calling for a deeper Canada-European partnership in areas including energy, critical minerals, defence and technology. He returned to Ottawa for a Liberal caucus retreat, where he again defended the decision to suspend Canada-U.S. trade negotiations and reiterated that Canada would return to negotiations if a deal respecting Canadian interests was possible. Parliament then returned for its fall sitting on September 21.

All of this occurred against the backdrop of the ongoing Canada-U.S. trade conflict, which continues to dominate a substantial part of the federal political agenda.

And yet, despite the volume and significance of events over the past two weeks, there is little evidence of a major disruption in public opinion.

The Liberal Party continues to hold a large national lead. Government approval has edged higher. Mark Carney’s personal rating has reached the highest level we have recorded in our tracking. And optimism about the direction of Canada has risen again.

If an election were held today, 46% of committed voters would vote Liberal, 34% Conservative, 9% NDP, 7% Bloc Québécois, 2% Green, 1% People’s Party and 1% another party.

Two weeks ago, the Liberal lead was 14 points, with the Liberals at 47% and the Conservatives at 33%.

Government approval is now 60%, up one point from two weeks ago, while disapproval is down two points to 25%.

Mark Carney’s personal standing has strengthened more noticeably. Fifty-six percent of Canadians have a positive impression of the Prime Minister and 25% have a negative one. His net impression is now +31 – the highest we have measured for Carney since we began tracking him.

And 48% of Canadians now believe the country is heading in the right direction, up from 45% two weeks ago. Thirty-nine percent think Canada is on the wrong track, down from 41%.

The result is a political environment that has absorbed an unusually busy period with relatively little movement in vote intention, while several broader measures of public sentiment have continued to improve.

Liberals Lead Conservatives by 12 Points

If an election were held today, 46% of committed voters would vote Liberal, 34% Conservative, 9% NDP, 7% Bloc Québécois, 2% Green, 1% People’s Party and 1% another party.

Compared with our survey completed on September 10, Liberal support is down one point, Conservative support is up one, the NDP is up one, the Bloc is unchanged, the Greens are down one, and the People’s Party and other parties are unchanged.

The Liberal lead therefore moves from 14 points to 12.

But among those who tell us they are certain to vote, Liberal support rises to 49% while Conservative support falls to 33%. The NDP is at 8% and the Bloc at 7%.

That produces a 16-point Liberal advantage among those currently expressing the greatest certainty about turning out.

The regional picture continues to show substantial Liberal strength, although there has been some movement within regions.

In Ontario, the Liberals lead 51% to 34%. In Atlantic Canada, they lead 53% to 32%. In British Columbia, Liberal support is 45% compared with 37% for the Conservatives.

In Quebec, the Liberals are at 44%, the Bloc Québécois at 31%, and the Conservatives at 20%.

The Conservatives continue to lead Alberta, 54% to 34%. In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the race is close, with the Liberals at 44% and Conservatives at 41%.

There are also substantial differences by age.

Among Canadians aged 60 and over, the Liberals lead 59% to 26%. They also lead among those aged 45 to 59, 47% to 35%.

The pattern reverses among younger Canadians. Among 18- to 29-year-olds, the Conservatives are at 42%, the Liberals 32%, and the NDP 15%. Among those aged 30 to 44, the Conservatives receive 39%, the Liberals 36%, and the NDP 14%.

The Liberals lead among both men and women: 45% to 36% among men and 48% to 32% among women.

Educational attainment also continues to divide the electorate. Liberal support rises from 43% among those with a high school education or less, to 45% among college graduates and 50% among university graduates. Conservative support is 37%, 33% and 33%, respectively.

The Liberals also continue to have the largest accessible voter pool. Sixty percent of Canadians say they would consider voting Liberal, compared with 47% for the Conservatives and 34% for the NDP.

Canadian Public Affairs Update · September 2026

Vote Intention: Liberals Lead Conservatives 46% to 34%

n=2,744 Canadian adults · September 18–23, 2026 · MoE ±1.87%

Overall Trend Line Subgroups Likely Voters Methodology

If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? Undecided removed.

Overall Federal Vote Intention

The Liberals lead with 46% of committed voters, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives at 34%. Since September 10, Liberal support is down 1 point, while Conservative and NDP support are each up 1 point.

Liberal

46%▼ -1

Conservative

34%▲ +1

NDP

9%▲ +1

BQ

7%NC

Green

2%▼ -1

People's

1%NC

Other

1%NC

Change is from September 10, 2026. Undecided respondents are removed from party shares.

Federal vote intention over time. Undecided removed.

Federal Vote Intention Trend

The Liberals remain in first place at 46%, followed by the Conservatives at 34%. The Excel series contains 63 observations and ends with the September 23, 2026 wave.

Liberal 46%Conservative 34%NDP 9%BQ 7%Green 2%

Source: vote.xlsx, Sheet1. The trend contains 63 observations and ends September 23, 2026.

If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? Undecided removed. (By region, gender, and age.)

The Conservatives lead in Alberta and among Canadians younger than 45, while the Liberals lead every other region and older age group. The Liberal lead is widest in Atlantic Canada and among those aged 60 and over.

Vote Intention by Region

Party	Canada	BC	AB	SK/MB	ON	QC	ATL
Liberal	46%	45%	34%	44%	51%	44%	53%
Conservative	34%	37%	54%	41%	34%	20%	32%
NDP	9%	12%	10%	10%	9%	3%	13%
BQ	7%	0%	0%	0%	0%	31%	0%
Green	2%	5%	0%	3%	3%	2%	0%
People's	1%	1%	1%	1%	2%	0%	2%
Other	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%	0%	1%

Each regional column's top three parties are highlighted. Values may not total 100 due to rounding.

Vote Intention by Gender and Age

Party	Canada	Male	Female	18 to 29	30 to 44	45 to 59	60 and over
Liberal	46%	45%	48%	32%	36%	47%	59%
Conservative	34%	36%	32%	42%	39%	35%	26%
NDP	9%	8%	10%	15%	14%	6%	4%
BQ	7%	7%	7%	7%	5%	8%	8%
Green	2%	2%	3%	3%	3%	3%	1%
People's	1%	1%	1%	1%	2%	1%	1%
Other	1%	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%

Each demographic column's top three parties are highlighted. Values may not total 100 due to rounding.

If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? Undecided removed. (Among respondents certain to vote.)

Federal Vote Intention Among Those Certain to Vote

Among those certain to vote, the Liberals rise to 49%, creating a 16-point lead over the Conservatives at 33%. The turnout screen gives the Liberals a 3-point boost and lowers Conservative and NDP support by 1 point each.

Liberal

49%▲ +3

Conservative

33%▼ -1

NDP

8%▼ -1

BQ

7%NC

Green

2%NC

People's

1%NC

Other

0%▼ -1

Turnout boost or suppression is the difference from the overall vote-intention result. NC means no change.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,744 Canadian adults from September 18 to 23, 2026.

A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey through a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 1.87 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Canada's population according to age, gender, educational attainment and region. Totals may not add to 100 because of rounding.

All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data · Canadian Public Affairs Update · September 23, 2026 · n=2,744 · MoE ±1.87%

abacusdata.ca

The Time-for-Change Equation Looks Very Different Than It Did One or Two Years Ago

One of the most revealing charts in this wave is our long-term measure asking Canadians whether they think it is time for a change in government or whether they would prefer to re-elect the Liberals.

Today, 43% say they would re-elect the Liberals.

Thirty-three percent say it is time for a change and that there is a good alternative available, while another 24% say it is time for a change but there is not a good alternative.

The comparison with one and two years ago is striking.

At roughly this point two years ago, just 15% said they would re-elect the Liberals. Fifty-four percent said it was time for a change and there was a good alternative, while 31% wanted change but did not think there was a good alternative.

One year ago, 32% said they would re-elect the Liberals, 40% said it was time for a change and there was a good alternative, and 28% wanted change but did not see a good alternative.

Today those numbers are 43%, 33% and 24%, respectively.

Put another way, the total share saying it is time for a change has fallen from 85% two years ago, to 68% one year ago, to 57% today.

At the same time, the share saying the Liberals should be re-elected has risen 28 points over two years and 11 points over the past year.

Perhaps the clearest way to see the shift is to compare the re-elect number with the share who both want change and believe there is a good alternative.

Two years ago, “time for change, good alternative” led “re-elect Liberals” by 39 points, 54% to 15%.

One year ago, that gap was eight points, 40% to 32%.

Today the relationship has reversed: 43% say re-elect the Liberals while 33% say it is time for a change and there is a good alternative.

That does not mean the desire for change has disappeared. A majority, 57%, still choose one of the two change options. But the composition of opinion is substantially different from where it was even a year ago.

The long-term chart therefore captures something the vote-intention numbers alone do not: a significant change in how Canadians think about the basic re-election proposition facing the Liberal government.

Canadian Public Affairs Update · September 2026

Desire for Change: 43% Would Re-elect the Liberals

n=2,744 Canadian adults · September 18–23, 2026 · MoE ±1.87%

Overall Results Trend Line Methodology

Which of the following comes closest to your view?

Current Results

Re-electing the Liberals is now the largest single response at 43%. One third say it is time for a change and there is a good alternative, while 24% want change but do not see a good alternative.

Time for change, good alternative

33%

Time for change, isn't a good alternative

24%

Re-elect Liberals

43%

The three response categories sum to 100%.

Which of the following comes closest to your view? (Trend over time.)

Desire for Change versus Re-elect Liberals

The re-elect Liberal measure reaches 43% in the September 23 wave, while the share saying it is time for change and there is a good alternative falls to 33%. The remaining 24% want change but do not see a good alternative.

Time for change, good alternative 33%Time for change, isn't a good alternative 24%Re-elect Liberals 43%

Source: desireforchange.xlsx, Sheet1. The trend contains 81 observations and ends September 23, 2026.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,744 Canadian adults from September 18 to 23, 2026.

A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey through a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 1.87 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Canada's population according to age, gender, educational attainment and region. Totals may not add to 100 because of rounding.

All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data · Canadian Public Affairs Update · September 23, 2026 · n=2,744 · MoE ±1.87%

abacusdata.ca

Carney Reaches a New High in Our Tracking

Mark Carney’s personal rating has improved again and is now at the highest level we have recorded for him.

Fifty-six percent of Canadians have a positive impression of the Prime Minister. Twenty-five percent have a negative impression and 17% are neutral.

That produces a net impression of +31.

Two weeks ago, Carney’s net impression was +27. His positive rating has risen two points while his negative rating has fallen two.

The improvement also leaves a substantial gap between Carney and the other major federal party leaders.

Pierre Poilievre is viewed positively by 34% and negatively by 45%, producing a reported net impression of -12. Avi Lewis is viewed positively by 18% and negatively by 26%, for a reported net impression of -9.

Carney’s standing is positive in every region of the country.

His net impression is +46 in Quebec, +31 in Ontario, +26 in British Columbia, +23 in Atlantic Canada, and +20 in both Alberta and Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

There are also relatively few gender differences: Carney’s net impression is +31 among both men and women.

Age produces a much wider gap. His net impression is +48 among those aged 60 and over, compared with +26 among 18- to 29-year-olds, +18 among 30- to 44-year-olds, and +22 among those aged 45 to 59.

Among 2025 Liberal voters, Carney’s net impression is +82. It is also positive among former NDP voters (+32) and Bloc voters (+36), while it is -24 among Conservative voters.

Canadian Public Affairs Update · September 2026

Party Leader Impressions: Carney Posts a +31 Net Rating

n=2,744 Canadian adults · September 18–23, 2026 · MoE ±1.87%

Overall Comparison Trend Line Subgroups: Carney Subgroups: Poilievre Methodology

Do you have a positive or negative impression of the following people?

Overall Party Leader Impressions

Mark Carney has the strongest overall impression rating, with 56% positive and a net score of +31. Pierre Poilievre is at -12, while Avi Lewis is at -9 and remains less familiar to 24% of Canadians.

Mark Carney

Net +31

56%17%25%2%

Positive 56%Neutral 17%Negative 25%Don't know enough to say 2%

Pierre Poilievre

Net -12

34%17%45%4%

Positive 34%Neutral 17%Negative 45%Don't know enough to say 4%

Avi Lewis

Net -9

18%32%26%24%

Positive 18%Neutral 32%Negative 26%Don't know enough to say 24%

Net impression is shown as printed in the supplied slide. Component percentages are rounded, so positive minus negative may differ from the printed net by 1 point.

Net impressions of Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre over time.

Carney and Poilievre Net-Impression Trend

Mark Carney's Excel trend reaches +31 in the latest wave, up from +27 on September 10. Pierre Poilievre's trend endpoint is -11, compared with -13 on September 10.

Mark Carney +31Pierre Poilievre -11

Source: leadership.xlsx, Sheet1. The trend contains 48 observations. The workbook ends at Carney +31 and Poilievre -11 on September 23, 2026; the separately supplied overall slide reports Poilievre at -12.

Do you have a positive or negative impression of Mark Carney? (Net impression by subgroup.)

Mark Carney Net Impression by Subgroup

Mark Carney's net impression is positive across nearly every listed subgroup and peaks at +48 among Canadians aged 60 and over. It reaches +82 among 2025 Liberal voters and is -24 among 2025 Conservative voters.

Overall

Canada+31

Region

BC+26

AB+20

SK/MB+20

ON+31

QC+46

ATL+23

Gender

Male+31

Female+31

Age

18 to 29+26

30 to 44+18

45 to 59+22

60 and over+48

Household income

Under $35K+24

$35K to $50K+25

$50K to $75K+40

$75K to $100K+28

$100K++34

Community

Urban+31

Suburban+33

Rural+27

2025 Vote

Liberal+82

Conservative-24

NDP+32

BQ+36

Positive values indicate a net-positive impression; negative values indicate a net-negative impression.

Do you have a positive or negative impression of Pierre Poilievre? (Net impression by subgroup.)

Pierre Poilievre Net Impression by Subgroup

Pierre Poilievre's net impression is positive in Alberta, among Canadians younger than 45, and among 2025 Conservative voters. His ratings are lowest among 2025 NDP voters at -63 and among Quebecers and Canadians aged 60 and over at -34.

Overall

Canada-12

Region

BC-19

AB+10

SK/MB-2

ON-4

QC-34

ATL-8

Gender

Male-10

Female-13

Age

18 to 29+14

30 to 44+7

45 to 59-14

60 and over-34

Household income

Under $35K-28

$35K to $50K-16

$50K to $75K-15

$75K to $100K-3

$100K+-2

Community

Urban-8

Suburban-17

Rural-8

2025 Vote

Liberal-57

Conservative+63

NDP-63

BQ-57

Positive values indicate a net-positive impression; negative values indicate a net-negative impression. The supplied subgroup slide reports Canada at -12.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,744 Canadian adults from September 18 to 23, 2026.

A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey through a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 1.87 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Canada's population according to age, gender, educational attainment and region. Totals may not add to 100 because of rounding.

All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data · Canadian Public Affairs Update · September 23, 2026 · n=2,744 · MoE ±1.87%

abacusdata.ca

Government Approval Rises to 60%

Overall approval of the federal government has edged higher again.

Sixty percent approve of the job the federal government led by Mark Carney is doing, while 25% disapprove and 15% neither approve nor disapprove.

Two weeks ago, approval was 59% and disapproval was 27%.

The government’s net approval rating therefore moves from +32 to +35.

Twenty-four percent strongly approve and 36% somewhat approve. Eleven percent somewhat disapprove and 14% strongly disapprove.

The more detailed issue assessments continue to show a clear distinction between the government’s handling of Canada’s external relationships and its performance on domestic pressures.

Fifty-seven percent approve of the government’s handling of Canada’s relationship with the United States, the strongest result of any issue we measure.

Fifty-two percent approve of its handling of national defence and Canada’s security.

After that, approval falls below 50%: 43% approve of the government’s handling of jobs and economic growth, 41% healthcare, 38% the cost of living and inflation, and 37% each on climate change and the environment, immigration, crime and public safety, and the federal deficit and government spending.

Housing affordability and supply remains the weakest-rated area, with 33% approving.

So, while overall government approval has improved, Canadians continue to differentiate quite sharply between their assessment of the government overall, its management of the external challenges facing the country, and its handling of several domestic issues.

Canadian Public Affairs Update · September 2026

Government Approval: Six in Ten Approve of the Federal Government

n=2,744 Canadian adults · September 18–23, 2026 · MoE ±1.87%

Overall Trend Line Approval by Policy Area Methodology

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job the federal government led by Mark Carney is doing?

Overall Government Approval

Six in ten Canadians approve of the job the federal government led by Mark Carney is doing, up 1 point since September 10. One quarter disapprove, down 2 points.

Approve

60%

▲ +1 since September 10

Neither

15%

Neither approve nor disapprove

Disapprove

25%

▼ -2 since September 10

Strongly approve

24%

Somewhat approve

36%

Neither approve nor disapprove

15%

Somewhat disapprove

11%

Strongly disapprove

14%

Approve combines strongly and somewhat approve. Disapprove combines somewhat and strongly disapprove. Changes are from September 10, 2026.

Approval and disapproval of the federal government over time.

Government Approval Trend

Government approval reaches 60% in the September 23 Excel wave, while disapproval falls to 25%. Both endpoints reconcile to the supplied overall results after rounding.

Approve 60%Disapprove 25%

Source: approval.xlsx, Sheet1. The trend contains 55 observations and ends September 23, 2026.

Thinking about some specific issues, do you approve or disapprove of how the federal government led by Mark Carney is handling each of the following?

Approval by Policy Area

Approval is highest for Canada's relationship with the United States at 57%, followed by national defence and security at 52%. Housing affordability and supply receives the lowest printed net approval at 33%.

Strongly approveSomewhat approveNeither approve nor disapproveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove

Canada's relationship with the United States28%29%15%12%17%57%

National defence and Canada's security18%35%24%10%13%52%

Jobs and economic growth10%33%28%14%15%43%

Access to health care10%30%31%17%14%41%

The cost of living and inflation10%27%25%19%19%38%

Climate change and the environment9%28%34%15%14%37%

Immigration10%27%27%16%20%37%

Crime and public safety10%26%32%16%16%37%

The federal deficit and government spending10%26%28%17%19%37%

Housing affordability and supply9%25%28%20%18%33%

Policy area	Now	Aug 26	Change
Canada's relationship with the United States	57%	50%	▲ +7
National defence and Canada's security	52%	50%	▲ +2
Jobs and economic growth	43%	41%	▲ +2
Access to health care	41%	38%	▲ +3
The cost of living and inflation	38%	35%	▲ +3
Climate change and the environment	37%	33%	▲ +4
Immigration	37%	35%	▲ +2
Crime and public safety	37%	34%	▲ +3
The federal deficit and government spending	37%	31%	▲ +6
Housing affordability and supply	33%	32%	▲ +1

The right-hand figure on each stacked bar and the table report the printed net-approval value. These may differ by 1 point from the sum of rounded component values. The climate-change strongly disapprove value of 14% was explicitly confirmed by the user.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,744 Canadian adults from September 18 to 23, 2026.

A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey through a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 1.87 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Canada's population according to age, gender, educational attainment and region. Totals may not add to 100 because of rounding.

All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data · Canadian Public Affairs Update · September 23, 2026 · n=2,744 · MoE ±1.87%

abacusdata.ca

Optimism About Canada Continues to Rise

Forty-eight percent of Canadians now believe the country is heading in the right direction. Thirty-nine percent think Canada is off on the wrong track.

Two weeks ago, 45% said right direction and 41% said wrong track.

The movement is not large, but it continues a broader upward trend in national optimism.

And once again, the contrast with perceptions of the world and the United States is substantial.

Only 16% believe the world is heading in the right direction while 71% think it is on the wrong track.

For the United States, 12% say right direction and 81% wrong track.

The gap between optimism about Canada and optimism about the world is therefore now 32 points, compared with 30 points two weeks ago.

There are some notable differences across the country. Fifty-four percent in British Columbia believe Canada is heading in the right direction, as do 51% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 49% in Ontario, 46% in Quebec and 51% in Atlantic Canada. Alberta is lower at 40%.

Canadian Public Affairs Update · September 2026

Mood of the Country: 48% Say Canada Is Headed in the Right Direction

n=2,744 Canadian adults · September 18–23, 2026 · MoE ±1.87%

Comparison Regional Breakout Trend Lines Methodology

Generally speaking, do you think things are headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track?

Direction of Canada, the World, and the USA

Canadians are much more positive about Canada's direction than about conditions beyond the country. Forty-eight per cent say Canada is headed in the right direction, compared with 16% for the world and 12% for the USA.

Canada

Right direction

48%

Wrong track

39%

The world

Right direction

16%

Wrong track

71%

The USA

Right direction

12%

Wrong track

81%

Right direction and wrong track are shown separately. Remaining responses are neither, unsure, or another unreported response category.

Generally speaking, do you think things are headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track? (Canada right direction by region.)

Canada Right Direction by Region

Right-direction sentiment is highest in British Columbia at 54% and lowest in Alberta at 40%. Saskatchewan and Manitoba and Atlantic Canada are each at 51%, while Ontario is at 49% and Quebec at 46%.

Canada

48%

BC

54%

AB

40%

SK/MB

51%

ON

49%

QC

46%

ATL

51%

Canada is shown as a national reference. Regional values report the percentage saying Canada is headed in the right direction.

Right-direction sentiment for Canada and the world over time.

Canada and World Right-Direction Trends

Canada's right-direction measure reaches 48% in the latest Excel wave, up from 45% on September 10. The world right-direction measure reaches 16%, up from 15%.

Canada right direction 48%World right direction 16%

Source: Direction.xlsx, Sheet1. The workbook contains 143 observations for Canada and the world and ends September 23, 2026. No USA trend series was supplied.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,744 Canadian adults from September 18 to 23, 2026.

A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey through a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 1.87 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Canada's population according to age, gender, educational attainment and region. Totals may not add to 100 because of rounding.

All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data · Canadian Public Affairs Update · September 23, 2026 · n=2,744 · MoE ±1.87%

abacusdata.ca

Cost of Living Leads the Agenda, Trump Remains a Major Focus

The rising cost of living remains the most frequently cited issue facing the country.

Sixty-three percent select it as one of the three most important issues facing Canada.

Donald Trump and his administration remain second at 44%, followed by the economy at 37%, healthcare at 31%, housing affordability and accessibility at 27%, and immigration at 21%.

Climate change and the environment is at 17%, crime and public safety 15%, job security and unemployment 14%, inequality and poverty 11%, and the rise of artificial intelligence 11%.

Compared with two weeks ago, the overall hierarchy has changed very little.

Cost of living is down two points, Trump is down two, and the economy is down two. But those same three issues continue to sit well above most of the remainder of the public agenda.

Quebec remains distinctive.

Fifty-nine percent of Quebecers identify Donald Trump and his administration as a top-three issue, compared with 56% who select the rising cost of living. Trump is therefore the most frequently selected issue in Quebec in this wave.

And the Liberal advantage among Canadians focused on Trump remains very large. Among people who rank Trump and his administration as a top-three issue, 68% say the Liberal Party is best able to deal with the issue, compared with 14% who choose the Conservatives.

The contrast across issues remains important. The Conservatives have advantages among those focused on immigration, crime and public safety, and job security and unemployment, while the Liberals lead on several other issues, including healthcare, climate change, inequality, Indigenous reconciliation, artificial intelligence, and dealing with Trump and his administration.

The public agenda therefore remains divided between persistent domestic economic pressures and a highly salient external challenge centred on the United States.

Canadian Public Affairs Update · September 2026

Top Issues: Cost of Living Leads at 63%

n=2,744 Canadian adults · September 18–23, 2026 · MoE ±1.87%

Overall Top Issues Regional Breakout Best Party Able to Handle Issue Methodology

What are the 3 most important issues facing Canada today? Please select 3 issues.

Overall Top Issues

The rising cost of living remains the leading issue, selected by 63% of Canadians. Donald Trump and his administration ranks second at 44%, followed by the economy at 37% and healthcare at 31%.

The rising cost of living

63%

Donald Trump and his administration

44%

The economy

37%

Healthcare

31%

Housing affordability and accessibility

27%

Immigration

21%

Climate change and the environment

17%

Crime and public safety

15%

Job security and unemployment

14%

Inequality and poverty

11%

The rise of artificial intelligence

11%

The threat posed by China and Russia

6%

Indigenous reconciliation

2%

Respondents selected three issues, so totals exceed 100%.

What are the 3 most important issues facing Canada today? Please select 3 issues. (By region.)

Top Issues by Region

The rising cost of living ranks first in every region, ranging from 56% in Quebec to 70% in Atlantic Canada. Concern about Donald Trump is highest in Quebec at 59%, while the economy reaches 47% in Alberta.

Issue	BC	AB	SK/MB	ON	QC	ATL
The rising cost of living	68%	68%	60%	63%	56%	70%
Donald Trump and his administration	37%	36%	37%	40%	59%	48%
The economy	45%	47%	36%	36%	32%	28%
Healthcare	35%	34%	31%	28%	33%	37%
Housing affordability and accessibility	27%	22%	24%	29%	26%	30%
Immigration	22%	27%	27%	21%	19%	12%
Climate change and the environment	17%	11%	13%	16%	22%	19%
Crime and public safety	14%	13%	24%	18%	9%	15%
Job security and unemployment	14%	15%	7%	18%	10%	12%
Inequality and poverty	8%	12%	15%	10%	16%	11%
The rise of artificial intelligence	10%	10%	16%	12%	10%	14%
The threat posed by China and Russia	5%	5%	6%	6%	6%	3%
Indigenous reconciliation	2%	3%	5%	3%	2%	1%

Each region's top three issues are highlighted. Respondents selected three issues, so column totals exceed 100%.

Which party do you think would do best on… (Among those who rated the issue in their top 3.)

Best Party Able to Handle Each Issue

The Liberals lead on eight of the 13 displayed issues, while the Conservatives lead on five. The largest Conservative advantages are on immigration and crime; the largest Liberal advantage is on Donald Trump and his administration.

LiberalConservativeNDPGreenPeople's PartyAnother partyUnsure

Healthcare34%20%19%19%Liberal +14

The rising cost of living31%32%10%21%Conservative +1

Housing affordability and accessibility27%29%17%20%Conservative +2

Crime and public safety21%50%17%Conservative +29

The economy41%39%11%Liberal +2

Climate change and the environment39%7%11%26%14%Liberal +32

The threat posed by China and Russia43%34%7%9%Liberal +9

Inequality and poverty27%19%25%21%Liberal +8

Indigenous reconciliation24%19%22%11%13%10%Liberal +5

Immigration14%59%14%Conservative +45

The rise of artificial intelligence39%19%9%26%Liberal +20

Donald Trump and his administration68%14%13%Liberal +54

Job security and unemployment26%42%10%16%Conservative +16

Issue	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	Green	People's Party	Another party	Unsure	Advantage
Healthcare	34%	20%	19%	3%	1%	4%	19%	Liberal +14
The rising cost of living	31%	32%	10%	2%	2%	2%	21%	Conservative +1
Housing affordability and accessibility	27%	29%	17%	2%	3%	3%	20%	Conservative +2
Crime and public safety	21%	50%	6%	2%	3%	1%	17%	Conservative +29
The economy	41%	39%	5%	1%	1%	2%	11%	Liberal +2
Climate change and the environment	39%	7%	11%	26%	1%	2%	14%	Liberal +32
The threat posed by China and Russia	43%	34%	7%	3%	2%	2%	9%	Liberal +9
Inequality and poverty	27%	19%	25%	5%	1%	2%	21%	Liberal +8
Indigenous reconciliation	24%	19%	22%	11%	13%	1%	10%	Liberal +5
Immigration	14%	59%	3%	2%	5%	2%	14%	Conservative +45
The rise of artificial intelligence	39%	19%	9%	5%	1%	1%	26%	Liberal +20
Donald Trump and his administration	68%	14%	2%	1%	0%	2%	13%	Liberal +54
Job security and unemployment	26%	42%	10%	3%	2%	2%	16%	Conservative +16

The exact values are listed below the stacked bars. Small segment values were explicitly confirmed by the user. For the economy, the displayed 41% Liberal and 39% Conservative values produce Liberal +2; the printed source advantage says CPC.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,744 Canadian adults from September 18 to 23, 2026.

A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey through a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 1.87 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Canada's population according to age, gender, educational attainment and region. Totals may not add to 100 because of rounding. Respondents selected three issues, so issue totals exceed 100%.

All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data · Canadian Public Affairs Update · September 23, 2026 · n=2,744 · MoE ±1.87%

abacusdata.ca

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto:

“This may be one of those surveys where the most important finding is how little the core political picture changed despite how much happened around it.

Since our last survey left the field, the Prime Minister held a cabinet retreat in Banff, hosted a major investment summit, announced a significant new business tax measure, opened the door to private investment in Canada’s four largest airports, travelled to Europe, addressed the European Parliament, returned for a Liberal caucus retreat, and then Parliament came back.

All of this happened while the trade conflict with the United States continued.

And after all of that, the Liberals are at 46% and the Conservatives are at 34%.

The Liberal lead has moved from 14 points to 12. That is movement, but it is not evidence of a fundamentally different political environment.

In fact, several of the other measures have moved in the opposite direction.

Government approval is now 60%. Mark Carney’s net impression has reached +31, the highest we have recorded for him. And 48% of Canadians think the country is heading in the right direction, up three points in two weeks.

Among those certain to vote, the Liberals lead by 16.

To me, one of the most revealing findings in the survey is the long-term time-for-change question. Two years ago, 54% of Canadians said it was time for a change and there was a good alternative available. Only 15% said re-elect the Liberals. A year ago, that was 40% to 32%. Today, 43% say re-elect the Liberals and 33% say it is time for change and there is a good alternative.

That is a very substantial change in the underlying re-election environment.

But there are two important cautions in the numbers.

First, 57% of Canadians still say it is time for a change when the two change responses are combined. The difference is that far fewer now say there is a good alternative available to them more of an indictment on the opposition parties than a preference for the incumbent.

Second, the cost of living remains far and away the most important issue in the country, and the government’s ratings on cost of living, housing and several domestic economic issues remain much weaker than its ratings on Canada-U.S. relations and national security.

So the story is not that every measure is moving in the same direction.

It is that a remarkably busy and consequential period in federal politics has produced very little disruption to the overall partisan landscape.

The Liberals still have a double-digit lead. Carney’s personal numbers have strengthened. Government approval remains high. Optimism about Canada is rising. And the long-term desire for political change looks very different than it did one or two years ago.

For now, the political environment appears remarkably stable despite an external environment that is anything but.”

• Ford PCs Slip to 40% as Lead Narrows and Seven in Ten Ontarians Want Change
• Days Before Alberta’s Referendum, Support for Remain Rises
• Albertans Trust the Referendum Count, but not the Aftermath: 67% Want Government to Turn the Page
• Liberal 12-point lead holds as focus on Trump fades slightly
• Canadians Are Worried About Homelessness, but Believe Progress is Possible. They Expect Governments to Deliver Visible, Effective Solutions.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,744 Canadian adults from September 18 to 23, 2026.

A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey through a set of partner panels. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment and region.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 1.87 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Totals may not add to 100 because of rounding.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

About Abacus Data

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

With offices in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto, and Winnipeg, we serve clients across Canada and the United States.

The post Liberals Hold 12-Point Lead as Carney Reaches New High and Optimism About Canada Rises Again appeared first on Abacus Data.

Earlier this year, Abacus Data acquired Manitoba-based Probe Research, one of Western Canada’s most respected public opinion firms. Curtis Brown, Probe’s principal and a pollster who has spent two decades reading the Prairies, now leads our work across the West, and the combined firm gives clients in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba the depth of a national research house with people who know the ground. Alberta at a Crossroads is the first major study of that expansion.

We built it with Robson Fletcher, a Calgary-based data & storytelling strategist working in partnership with Abacus Data in Alberta.

The result is a five-part series, the most in-depth exploration of public opinion around the referendum, identity, expectations and the future of Alberta in the Canadian federation that anyone has published. We surveyed 1,000 Albertans from September 4 to 7, asked the separation question exactly as it will appear on the ballot, followed up with those who chose Option 2, the option to commence a legal process leading to a binding vote on independence (we call them Option 2 supporters (those who would vote for a legal process leading to a binding vote on independence) throughout), to find out whether they would actually vote to leave, and went deep on how Albertans see themselves, their province, their country and their neighbour to the south. This is a window into the minds of Albertans at a crossroads in the province’s history.

What we learned

• Only 40% can say what a vote to commence the process would actually do. 17% think it does more than it does. 19% do not know. Three-quarters of the province is following the referendum closely.
• Everyone expects a closer result than Albertans are describing. The average Albertan expects the Option 2 side to receive 41% of the vote. Option 2 supporters expect 57%, a majority. Stated intention is 24%.
• A remain win settles nothing. 15% think it would settle the issue for a generation. 46% of Option 2 supporters expect the movement to keep growing regardless.
• Both sides expect lasting division. 63% agree the referendum will divide Albertans for years no matter who wins, one of the few things remain and Option 2 supporters agree on.

The full report sets out the comprehension gap by age and by side, the expectations gap group by group, and what Albertans on each side believe October 20 will bring. It closes with our assessment of what this referendum will and will not settle.

To download the full 11-page report, please complete this form:

GET ACCESS TO ALL THE DATA

You can access the full dataset in an interactive environment for only $24.99. Click here to learn more.

Media Inquiries

For media inquiries, please contact:

Robson Fletcher
robson@robsonfletcher.com

Curtis Brown
curtis@probe-research.com

David Coletto
info@abacusdata.ca

• Ford PCs Slip to 40% as Lead Narrows and Seven in Ten Ontarians Want Change
• Days Before Alberta’s Referendum, Support for Remain Rises
• Albertans Trust the Referendum Count, but not the Aftermath: 67% Want Government to Turn the Page
• Liberal 12-point lead holds as focus on Trump fades slightly
• Canadians Are Worried About Homelessness, but Believe Progress is Possible. They Expect Governments to Deliver Visible, Effective Solutions.

Methodology

Abacus Data surveyed 1,000 Alberta adults online from September 4 to 7, 2026. The data are weighted by region, age and gender to match Alberta’s population according to census data. A probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points, 19 times out of 20. The separation question was presented exactly as it will appear on the October 19 ballot.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

About Abacus Data

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

With offices in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto, and now in Winnipeg following our acquisition of Probe Research, we can serve clients across the country.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

The post Alberta at a Crossroads: Albertans Expect a Close Vote They Are Not Going to Deliver, and Nobody Thinks It Ends There appeared first on Abacus Data.