Albion Financial Group

Quarterly Letter – Third Quarter 2026

Albion Financial — Wed, 21 Oct 2026 17:19:47 +0000

3rd Quarter 2026 – Quarterly Letter [PDF]Download

Q3 2026 Quarterly Letter

Introduction

As fall settles in, this quarter’s letter considers how long-term planning can provide steadiness through changing conditions. John Bird looks at the nonlinear paths that shape markets and life, along with the resilience that can help a financial plan adapt along the way. Jason Ware reviews an economy that continues to show strength amid shifting expectations for inflation, interest rates, and market leadership. Natalie Richards explores the role taxes play in a broader financial life, including why a tax cost today may support greater flexibility and value in the years ahead. Read through to the Community section to meet the newest members of the Albion team.

From John Bird’s Desk

“We expect linear outcomes in a nonlinear world.”

I heard this statement today. And it resonated.

We are investors and planners. As investors we strive to find companies we can depend on to continuously improve. For their earnings to rise predictably year after year. To regularly increase their dividends. For their stock price with fits and starts, to move up and to the right year after year.

As planners we create models to project what the future may hold. We read estate plans to see how well they fit with life goals you’ve shared. We work to optimize for tax efficiency based on our knowledge of the tax code and understanding of you and your family.

Our initial lens through which we view all things investing and planning is… linear. We project what we see today, the path our investments and our clients are on, and project into the future.

If this was as far as we went we’d be right in line with the majority of high-quality financial advisors. Our models are first-rate and durable, our investment thesis is sound, and the guidance we provide is supportable and on point.

And yet it’s not enough. Because to riff on the statement made above we should not expect linear outcomes in a nonlinear world.

What we have experienced across decades is that even the soundest investment thesis, one that may work for ten, fifteen, or twenty years will eventually fall out of favor. And while our favorite holding period is “forever” we must always be on alert for signals that indicate the long-term linear trend is changing. And be prepared to respond accordingly.

Nor are our lives as linear as we might expect. Curveballs change our course and we must do our best to respond. A forced retirement comes earlier than expected. A child, parent, or spouse experiences adverse (and expensive) health issues. A new child or grandchild joins the family. An exciting opportunity – not without risk – for a new career surfaces. These curves in the road, some positive some not, are what give texture to our lives. So we embrace them even though they knock us off a linear track.

Our financial advising work cannot anticipate every possible scenario but it can build enough resiliency to create space for the inevitable ebb and flow of our lives. We work with you to stress test your plan, to explore a variety of “what ifs” and see how they’d impact your future years. As important we encourage you to circle back, to share the curves, no matter how shallow or tight, so we can reflect on their impact on both your present circumstance and path toward future goals.

We must build resiliency into investment portfolios as well as it’s certain that not all projections will come to pass.

When I began this work in the early 1980’s I’d often state that financial planning was a process not a product. This at a time when financial plans could run to well over one hundred pages. With all but a page or two useless. My opinion hasn’t changed. Because the nature of how we live has not changed. We all experience joys and sorrows, periods of calm and of chaos. Our goal is to help you use your financial assets as stabilizers – tools to help you ride through these inevitable periods of change – while keeping a clear focus on both your current and future life goals.

Thank you for allowing us to share this journey with you.

Economy and Markets by Jason Ware

The third quarter offered another reminder that economic and market narratives can change quickly. Just a few months ago, the prevailing debate centered on slowing growth and when the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates again. Today, the conversation has shifted toward an economy that may be running hotter than expected, stubborn inflation, higher bond yields, and whether the Fed needs to do more—not less. Through it all, the underlying message is familiar: the US economy is growing, corporate profits are surging, and recession risk remains low.

Starting with the economy, growth has once again proven hardier than expected. Real GDP is running +2.1% year-over-year (+5.3% nominal) and more recent data suggest activity strengthened as summer progressed. Consumer spending remains healthy, business investment is vigorous, and the AI-related capital spending boom has become an increasingly important economic force. The labor market is also holding up. Employers added +162,000 jobs in August, wages are higher, unemployment sits at 4.1%, and layoffs are limited. In short, the re-acceleration we discussed last quarter appears to be taking shape. Indeed, the US economy has absorbed an extraordinary collection of headwinds over the past several years—higher rates, tariffs, geopolitical conflict, political uncertainty, inflation, and repeated recession calls—without rolling over. That doesn’t mean these things don’t matter. But it does suggest the underlying capacity of households and businesses to adapt remains underappreciated.

Inflation, however, has become more complicated. Consumer prices were 3.4% higher than a year ago. This is higher than we would like and certainly higher than the Fed’s 2% goal, but context matters. A meaningful portion of the recent uptick reflects the energy shock emanating from the Middle East rather than a broad breakdown in price stability. If energy markets eventually normalize—as remains our base case—some of that pressure should reverse. The stronger economy and firmer inflation backdrop caused the Fed to change course during the quarter. In September, policymakers raised their benchmark interest rate by +0.25%, reversing some of the cuts made in 2025. While that may feel like a significant change, we view it more as recalibration than alarm. Economic growth is solid, unemployment is low, and inflation endures above target. The Fed itself now describes economic activity as expanding at a “solid pace,” with good productivity and robust capital investment.

Bond markets have delivered an even sharper message. The 10-year Treasury yield moved to 5.3% late in the quarter, reaching levels not seen in nearly two decades. Some of that reflects recent inflation and expectations for Fed policy. But we think something else is at work too. Stronger nominal growth, large fiscal deficits, and substantial demand for borrowed capital—including enormous AI infrastructure investment—are all exerting upward pressure. Higher yields can create challenges, but they also mean something quite positive for savers and fixed-income investors … bonds offer attractive income again.

Perhaps nowhere is economic strength more visible than in record corporate profits. Earnings growth has materially exceeded expectations this year, and estimates for the third quarter actually rose during July and August—a period when analysts typically lower them. Current probabilities point toward another strong quarter, with 2026 profits likely finishing well above where forecasts began the year and double-digit growth still expected in 2027. As we’ve said before, business profits are the anchor. Narratives change; earnings compound.

AI remains central to this story. The debate has understandably shifted from whether AI is real to whether the vast sums being spent to build it out can ultimately earn acceptable returns. It’s a healthy question. Capital spending on data centers, semiconductors, power generation, networking equipment, and software is occurring on a remarkable scale. There will undoubtedly be winners, losers, excesses, and disappointments along the way. But today, this spending is also generating real economic activity, supporting productivity, and producing substantial profits for the companies enabling it. The distinction between AI hype and the AI economy is becoming increasingly important.

Outside the US, the global economy has also weathered the year’s shocks reasonably well. European growth has improved from a weak start to the year, China continues working through structural challenges, and the Middle East conflict has weighed on growth. Yet global activity has proven more durable than feared, helped in no small part by technology investment.

Turning to markets, US stocks spent much of the quarter near all-time highs despite July’s dip and renewed volatility in September. Technology companies are important contributors, while higher oil prices and rising bond yields created some bumps late in the quarter. It has been an unusual mix of strong stocks, strong profits, yet higher commodity prices and bond yields. At first glance, sturdy stock prices and higher interest rates may seem incompatible. But stocks ultimately represent ownership in businesses, and businesses are making considerably more money. Earnings have risen more than prices, keeping valuations in check. There are certainly pockets of enthusiasm, particularly around AI, that warrant discipline. But broadly speaking, we see an equity market supported by healthy profit growth rather than speculation. Against this backdrop, careful investment selection and diversification remain our North Star.

All told, the economic expansion is intact, corporate America is performing exceptionally well, and the secular forces supporting investment and productivity remain persuasive. Inflation and higher interest rates deserve attention, as do geopolitics, fiscal imbalances, and elevated expectations in parts of the market. We don’t dismiss those risks. We simply don’t believe they overwhelm the underlying fundamentals. Markets will eventually correct. The economy will eventually experience another recession. No one knows precisely when either will occur—including us. That’s why our approach isn’t built around predicting them. We own quality investments, diversify, maintain appropriate asset allocations, and think and act long-term. Through good quarters and difficult ones alike, our job is to keep portfolios aligned with the goals they exist to serve.

As always, we are humbled by the trust you place in us and grateful for the opportunity to serve you.

Planner’s Corner by Natalie Richards

The Cost You Feel and the Value You Build

Why Taxes Deserve Attention, But Not Center Stage

Why do we often spend more energy reacting to the tax bill than celebrating the wealth that created it? The answer may have less to do with taxes themselves and more to do with how we naturally experience financial gains and financial costs.

The Difference Between a Tax Year and a Financial Life

One challenge in financial planning is that taxes are typically measured one year at a time, while most financial goals are measured across decades. The IRS cares about what happened between January 1 and December 31. Your retirement plan, legacy goals, and your long-term financial security operate on a much larger timeline: a lifetime.

Many of the planning opportunities we discuss involve accepting an immediate cost in pursuit of a better long-term outcome. We feel the cash flow cost today, while the benefit to our long-term financial position may not become fully apparent for years.

Consider Roth conversions, a planning strategy many of us will be discussing in the coming weeks as year-end tax planning deadlines approach. If Roth conversions have been a part of your financial strategy, you’ve probably heard that they are often most effective when the tax is paid from funds outside of the IRA itself. In practical terms, that means finding the cash to pay an additional tax bill today, often from a bank account or other available resources.

This is where the tension between a tax year and a financial life becomes especially apparent. The purpose of a Roth conversion is typically long-term in nature: creating greater flexibility in retirement, building a hedge against future tax rate changes, reducing future required distributions, or potentially leaving a more tax-efficient legacy to children and grandchildren.

The tax bill, however, operates on a very different timeline: that check must be written by April.

Why This Feels So Difficult

Why is this distinction so difficult to navigate? Part of the answer lies in how we experience these competing priorities. Taxes are typically felt as an immediate reduction in cash flow. They require action. They have deadlines, forms to gather, and payments to make. Investment growth, by contrast, is often reflected on account statements through numbers that can be harder to contextualize in our day-to-day lives. In fact, many of the best outcomes in long-term investing come not from taking action, but from allowing patience and discipline to do their work over time.

It’s not surprising that these two priorities often compete for our attention. They live in different parts of a financial plan: taxes are primarily a cash flow consideration, while long-term investment growth is largely a balance sheet driver. One demands our attention in the present. The other requires us to evaluate it through a wider lens.

The world around us reinforces this distinction. Taxes are frequently front and center in headlines and conversations with friends, family, and coworkers. Meanwhile, long-term compounding receives far less attention. Wealth is typically created slowly and quietly, and investment statement balances aren’t exactly dinner table conversation.

As humans, we tend to be most comfortable when uncertainty is low. The amount of tax you owe this year, whether large or small, is known. Future investment returns, career changes, health events, and the many factors that influence a financial plan are inherently less certain. While we can make assumptions and run scenarios, the reality is that we simply don’t know what the future will bring.

Of course, this dynamic is easiest to recognize when markets have been strong and investment balances are growing. But that doesn’t mean taxes only feel meaningful during good markets. Quite the opposite. There are times when investors are faced with both a tax bill and a period of disappointing portfolio returns. In those moments, the frustration is even more understandable.

Yet even then, the question isn’t whether taxes matter. The question is whether taxes should become the primary lens through which every financial decision is evaluated.

When Tax Minimization and Wealth Maximization Diverge

In an ideal world, every financial decision would both minimize taxes and maximize wealth. Often those goals align. Sometimes they don’t. There is an important difference between minimizing taxes this year and minimizing taxes over the course of a lifetime.

As planners, we spend a great deal of time helping clients evaluate decisions through a long-term lens. That means we are often less concerned with whether a strategy increases or decreases taxes in a particular year and more interested in how it affects a client’s after-tax financial position over the next 10, 20, or 30 years. That doesn’t mean the current year is unimportant. Taxes paid today represent real dollars and real cash flow. They can affect spending plans, charitable goals, family support, and any number of other priorities. They deserve consideration. They just aren’t always the most important factor.

This is what we mean when we say we don’t want to let the tax tail wag the investment dog. Instead of asking “how do I avoid this tax?” a better question is often, “What am I receiving in exchange for paying this tax?” The answer may be something like greater retirement flexibility, reduced future taxes, improved diversification, or a stronger legacy plan.

Capital gains taxes offer another example. When investors realize gains, it is easy to focus on the tax bill and overlook what created it in the first place. While many investors can tell you exactly how much tax they paid on a gain, far fewer can quantify the value created by that gain or the role it played in helping them reach their long-term goals.

Sometimes a tax bill is not evidence that something went wrong. It can be evidence that something worthwhile happened.

None of this is meant to suggest that taxes don’t matter. They do. Thoughtful tax planning can create meaningful value over time. The challenge is making sure tax considerations remain in service to your broader financial goals. Because taxes are immediate and tangible, they can sometimes command more attention than the outcomes they’re meant to support.

The goal isn’t to pay the least amount of tax in any given year, but rather to build the most successful financial life possible.

As we approach year-end, now is a good time to revisit planning opportunities and tax-related deadlines that may affect your broader financial plan. Depending on your circumstances, topics worth discussing with your advisor may include:

Roth conversions and tax diversification strategies

Charitable giving strategies, including appreciated securities, QCDs, and Donor Advised Funds

Concentrated stock diversification

Coordination of capital gains and losses outside of Albion-managed accounts

Retirement plan and HSA contribution opportunities

Required minimum distributions (RMDs) from IRAs, Inherited IRAs, and retirement plan accounts

Fourth quarter estimated tax payments

Annual exclusion gifting and family wealth transfer strategies

Trust distribution requirements

Albion Financial Group is an SEC registered investment advisor. The information provided is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any particular securities product, service, or investment strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Additional information about Albion Financial Group is also available on the SEC’s website at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov under CRD number 105957. Albion Financial Group only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration or notice filing requirements.

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Quarterly Letter – Second Quarter 2026

Albion Financial — Tue, 14 Jul 2026 14:23:27 +0000

2nd Quarter 2026 – Quarterly Letter [PDF]Download

FROM JOHN BIRD’S DESK

Warrior Trading. The Trading Geek. Trendy Traders Academy.

What do these have in common? All are online courses or YouTube channels professing to help you make money through active trading. This of course begs the question; does more trading activity lead to better outcomes?

It seems like it should. You see an investment you like at a price you like. Buy it. If it rises in value, sell it. If markets are looking shaky, sell. When markets appear solid, buy. Easy, right?

But does it work? Let’s break it down. Suppose you’re concerned and want less risk. You decide to sell some positions. Now you have cash and it feels good. What if the market continues its ascent. Do you buy back in at the higher price? Or stay the course and wait for the market to turn lower? Suppose the market does turn lower. You expected this which is why you raised cash in the first place. Confirmation bias kicks in so you remain out of the market until it looks better. For most of us “looks better” means the market is on a strong upward trajectory. So you wait for it to show significant gains before buying back in? Hmm. Sort of defeats the purpose.

Traders have to be right several times; first when they buy a position and next when they sell it. Then they must be right a third time when they redeploy the capital to buy the next position. And on and on and on.

To date no one has demonstrated consistent success trading in and out of the market, or in and out of individual stocks. DALBAR publishes a Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior survey where they track returns of mutual funds and compare those returns to the actual returns achieved by the mutual fund investors. What the data shows is that the average mutual fund investor underperforms common benchmarks, and the returns of the funds they’ve invested in, by 3.5% to 5.5% per year over multi-decade time frames. They attribute this to investors selling out of funds during market drawdowns and buying back in when the markets have recovered. The DALBAR study quantifies the penalty the average investor pays for trying to time the market. Or put another way – for being a trader.

A well-known investor, Warren Buffett, is the antithesis of a trader. In his Berkshire Hathaway portfolio he would buy and hold good companies. Often for decades. Did that label him a lazy investor? An absent portfolio manager? No. It resulted in him being recognized as a very successful investor.

Albion follows a handful of guidelines:

Think and act long-term

Own good companies

Keep portfolios as simple as possible to meet the agreed upon investment policy

Whether your investment accounts with Albion include a small contributory Roth IRA or a large multigenerational trust we employ the same philosophy and portfolio design.

We work to find, purchase, and hold good companies for long periods of time. Having said that we work every day to understand the evolving dynamics of the companies we own as corporate fortunes can and do change. Sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse.

If we determine changing a position makes sense we change that position for all accounts, from the smallest to largest.* Every client account matters.

Our favorite holding period is… forever. However that’s not the way the world works. Perhaps a stock price grew at a far faster rate than the underlying company. Still a good company but now the valuation is not as attractive as it was. Or the fortune of the company looks to be compromised for an extended period. There clearly are times when reducing or eliminating a position altogether makes sense. Yet on balance it’s time in the market, not timing the market, that leads to wealth creation.

So is there money to be made with the trading tutorials listed at the top of the piece? Sure. By whoever is selling them. A lot less likely that the buyer will find them profitable. Most of us are far better off if we think and act long-term, own good companies, add additional diversification with carefully selected and managed Exchange Traded Funds, and let time in the market create wealth. That’s what Albion will continue to do on your behalf.

* There are occasions where due to our clients’ special circumstances their portfolios may be invested differently than those of other clients. For example a client may have a very large inherited low-basis stock position. We take such circumstances into account when designing and managing portfolios.

ECONOMY AND MARKETS by Jason Ware

The second quarter reminded investors of an important truth: markets often make the news feel much worse than it actually is. While headlines remained dominated by geopolitics, inflation concerns, and questions surrounding the Federal Reserve, the fundamental backdrop changed very little. Growth persisted (likely mid-2%), corporate profits advanced (over +20%), and the economy proved, once again, to be hardier than many expected. From our perch, recession risk remains low. In fact, we continue to hold a somewhat out-of-consensus view. Rather than an economy gradually slowing due to purported headwinds, we believe the more likely path remains one of modest re-acceleration in the coming months.

The economic data continue to point toward sturdy growth. Consumer activity remains healthy, household balance sheets are solid, the labor market is stable, there’s a boom in tech capital spending, and the fiscal picture has switched from headwind to tailwind. On jobs, hiring has slowed from the strong pace of recent years, but unemployment remains low and layoffs are limited. Digging a bit deeper, employment statistics around “prime” (and “super-prime”) age cohorts are encouraging and good leading indicators. On balance, there are no signs of meaningful deterioration.

Zooming out, it’s not a booming economy, but neither is it one showing signs of slowdown or recession.

Perhaps the biggest surprise, and indeed strongest boost, in 2026 has been results from corporate America. Despite persistent concerns over tariffs, higher energy prices, elevated interest rates, geopolitics, lower labor supply, businesses are executing remarkably well. Productivity is rising, investment remains healthy, and companies endure in finding ways to grow profits. We think earnings will increase more than +20% this year, with early indications for 2027 also very constructive (double-digits). In our view, the durability of this earnings cycle remains underestimated. This, and the macro economy from which these earnings flow, are vital ingredients to stock prices.

Inflation remains the story everyone wants to be over—but it isn’t quite finished. As we’ve previously described, prices have come down dramatically from their (June) 2022 highs, yet the final stretch back to the Fed’s 2% target has proven stubborn. Services inflation remains elevated, while recent increases in oil prices have added another wrinkle. Even so, today’s inflation environment looks far different than the one investors faced just a few years ago. Importantly, we believe that the current inflation setup is compatible with economic growth, healthy financial markets, and expanding corporate profits. We also reason that as the conflict in the Middle East is put behind us—as has long been our base case—energy prices will fall, bringing recent inflation pressures down with it (we’re already seeing this).

That leaves the Fed in a familiar position. Interest rates now sit near levels that neither stimulate nor slow the economy, making patience the likely course of action for now. While we believe an additional rate cut or two remain probable, the hurdle for near-term easing remains high unless inflation cools further or the labor market weakens more meaningfully. Markets have spent much of the year debating exactly when the next cut will arrive (we’ve said 2027). The better question however is whether it materially changes the longer-term outlook. Increasingly, the answer appears to be no. Leadership at the Fed also entered a new chapter during the quarter with Kevin Warsh assuming the role of Chair. While every new Chair brings a different communication style and set of priorities, monetary policy is ultimately determined by committee, not by one individual. We therefore expect more continuity than change (though there will be some), with inflation remaining front and center.

Outside our borders, the global economy is expanding at a modest pace. Europe remains sluggish but steady, emerging markets have generally benefited from improving financial conditions, and China continues its long transition toward a more consumer-oriented economy. None of these regions are likely to drive global growth on their own, but collectively they remain supportive of a stable economic backdrop.

Geopolitics once again captured investors’ attention. Conflict in Iran pushed oil and gas prices higher during the quarter and reminded markets that geopolitical events rarely unfold in a straight line. While higher energy prices can temporarily pressure consumers and lift inflation, history suggests these episodes are more often drivers of short-term volatility than long-term economic outcomes. Unless they structurally impair global demand or energy supply for an extended period, markets have generally proven resilient.

The stock market certainly experienced its share of volatility this quarter. Sharp swings in sentiment, combined with uncertainty surrounding interest rates and geopolitics, produced another reminder that investing is rarely a smooth ride. Yet beneath those daily headlines, something important continued to happen: corporate earnings kept growing. Over long periods, that remains the single most important driver of stock prices. Valuations also became more attractive during the quarter, despite stocks moving higher, as profits easily outpaced price movement. Today, portions of the market appear considerably more reasonably valued than they did just six to nine months ago. At the index level, our math shows stocks sit at around fair value. For long-term investors, periods like these often create opportunity—not reasons for retreat.

One observation we’ve shared with clients for years bears repeating. Markets spend a tremendous amount of time near all-time highs. That isn’t something to fear; it’s the natural consequence of an economy that grows, businesses that innovate, and profits that compound over time. Waiting for a more comfortable entry point often proves more costly than simply remaining disciplined and invested.

All told, our outlook remains constructive. The economy is expanding, businesses are earning more money, inflation is not problematic, and the investment opportunities before us remain compelling. That doesn’t mean volatility has disappeared—far from it. But volatility is a feature, not a flaw, of investing. Our approach remains grounded in quality, discipline, diversification, and maintaining a long run perspective focused on fundamentals rather than headlines.

We appreciate the continued partnership.

PLANNERS CORNER by Natalie Richards

When Good is Better than Perfect

Financial Decision Fatigue and Simplifying Your Life

At some point, many of us reach a stage in life where the number of decisions we’re responsible for quietly multiplies. Work becomes more complex. Family responsibilities grow. Financial life, once relatively simple, spreads across accounts, goals, and competing priorities. And somewhere along the way, even small decisions start to feel heavier than they should. Financial decisions are no exception. In fact, they may be where this shows up most clearly.

Today, investors are faced with more information, more options, and more opinions than ever before. While that might sound empowering, it often has the opposite effect. Noise is everywhere: from social media to news headlines, it’s all readily available on a device most of us always keep in our pocket or our purse. We feel responsible for not just keeping up with the constant inflow of information, but processing, validating, interpreting, and taking action (or choosing not to take action) on what we’re seeing, hearing, and reading. Instead of clarity, it creates friction.

Underneath this friction is a quiet but powerful force: the desire to get it exactly right.

The right time to invest.

The best allocation.

The optimal tax decision.

And while that instinct is understandable, it often leads to a surprising outcome – no decision at all, or one made under stress and fatigue. In this way, the pursuit of perfection doesn’t improve decisions, it delays them. Sometimes that delay is obvious when we put something off entirely. Other times, it’s quieter. We revisit the same decision again and again, looking for just a little more certainty, a slightly better answer. But the outcome rarely changes – only the time and energy we’ve spent getting there. And the result isn’t just inefficiency, it’s mental weight.

In our experience, the most effective financial decisions share a few characteristics. They are grounded and well-informed – but not overengineered. They are aligned with long-term goals rather than short-term conditions. And perhaps most importantly, they are simple enough to stick with. Jason Ware is often reminding our team and our clients of this concept as part of Albion’s investment treatise: less is more, and the simpler the better.

Four Ways to Push Back Against Decision Fatigue

Define “good enough” in advance. Have a plan that reflects your full financial picture and, just as importantly, your priorities. When you know what you’re working toward, it becomes easier to recognize when a decision meets the mark, even if it’s not perfect. Often, the goal isn’t to find the best possible answer, but one that clearly supports your desired long-term direction.

Automate wherever possible. Automation isn’t just about efficiency, it’s about reducing the number of decisions you have to make in the first place. When savings, investing, or distributions happen on a set schedule, you’re no longer forced to revisit the same decision over and over again. Good decisions become habits rather than moments of effort.

Limit inputs. More information doesn’t always lead to better decisions – often it just adds friction or confusion. Limiting the inflow doesn’t mean tuning everything out, but it does mean being selective. A small number of dependable inputs – a few trusted people, a few diverse sources – can provide far more clarity than a constant stream of headlines and opinions. In many cases, reducing noise is one of the fastest ways to improve decision-making.

Give yourself permission to move forward. Some decisions don’t become clearer with more time, they simply become heavier. There’s value in being able to say: “This is sound, this is aligned, and this is enough to act on.” Moving forward with a good decision rather than waiting for the perfect one is often what creates progress over time.

A significant part of our role as advisors is not introducing more decisions, but helping reduce and clarify them. Not every choice needs to be maximized. Many simply need to be made thoughtfully and then left alone. One simple question we come back to often is: “Is this decision worth optimizing?” or said another way, “Is this really going to move the needle?” Not every financial choice carries the same weight. Some, like your long-term savings rate or overall allocation, deserve careful attention. Others benefit far less from additional time and energy. Being able to distinguish between the two is often more valuable than getting any single decision exactly right.

The goal here isn’t to eliminate decisions, but rather to reserve your energy for the ones that matter most.

Over time, financial success is shaped less by perfect decisions and more by consistent, thoughtful ones made along the way. In a world that encourages constant optimization, there is real value in simplicity, and in moving forward with clarity, even when the answer isn’t perfect.

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Spring 2026 Client Conference Call

Albion Financial — Wed, 29 Apr 2026 14:39:05 +0000

The post Spring 2026 Client Conference Call appeared first on Albion Financial Group.

Quarterly Letter – First Quarter 2026

Albion Financial — Mon, 13 Apr 2026 21:45:00 +0000

1st Quarter 2026 – Quarterly Letter [PDF]Download

FROM JOHN BIRD’S DESK

The April 2026 issue of The Atlantic has a piece by McKay Coppins titled “Sucker – My Year as a Degenerate Gambler”. McKay does not fit a stereotypical gambler profile. A self-described “suburban dad with four kids, a mortgage, and a minivan” and “as a practicing Mormon, I am prohibited from indulging in games of chance”, he found the explosion of online sports betting fascinating. His editors fronted him $10,000 and he set out to understand and write about the world of legal online betting. While a full review of the piece is beyond the scope of this note I’ll focus here on how he found the act of sports betting changed his relationship with the games, his family and friends, and himself. He became caught up in it. Obsessed even. Stepping away from dinners to hide in the bathroom to check on bets. Sitting in the car while ostensibly out doing errands to do the same. Staying up late to watch west coast games between teams he had no connection to but… had bets on. And he had plenty of support urging him to continue. Podcasts, TV shows, radio personalities, social media, and the apps themselves all provided a constant stream of promise for the big win and someone to blame for the bets that didn’t go his way.

Sporting events were no longer being part of a like-minded community with a shared interest. Rather he had become a stand-alone observer with his own concerns about specific bets related to each game. He gained a deep self-absorbed attentiveness but lost the joy of a shared experience. There was always someone to blame, real or not, for the bets that didn’t work out. A referee. A player who botched an easy pass. Anger and bitterness began to creep in.

The piece resonated with me for a variety of reasons not least of which is that we’ve seen the same narrow focus creep into citizens across broad swaths of our towns, cities, states, and the country regarding almost any issue. Many of us are focused on our own “bets” and anger and bitterness often color our perceptions of events and of those who hold a different point of view.

So how does this relate to the investment world? For every hour you as a client interact with your team at Albion to understand our thinking and gain reassurance you likely absorb scores of hours of media urging you to be concerned, be afraid, to take action… NOW!.

Each day I consume information from a variety of sources and I imagine many of you do as well. News websites with a wide range of political and economic perspectives. Print media including newspapers, magazines and nonfiction books. The radio. Each one will typically have a different take on any given event. As investors our work is to sort through this and separate the signal from the noise. Without succumbing to emotional attachment to any specific outcome.

In McKay’s sports betting experience he found the plethora of commentary from “experts” tremendously engaging. For any failed bet there was an explanation… and typically someone to blame. And there were always pundits urging to stay in the game and make the next series of wagers.

The hundreds of public facing “investment experts” available through sources ranging from social media to the Wall Street Journal offer the same; a “reason” for nearly any market move whether an individual stock or aggregate indices. Sometimes their “reason” is correct. More often than not the “reason” may correlate with the event but as we all know correlation is not causation.

So what do we do? We step back and look at the big picture and keep that in mind as we make investment decisions. In McKay’s case he was aware of the big picture. Per Nate Silver (self-described statistics nerd and founder of the 538 political forecasting website) 98 percent of sports bettors lose money over the course of a season. Yet the house always makes money as they charge a 4.5% fee every time a wager is placed; they have a strong financial incentive to keep bettors hooked in. Further there is ample data showing the negative impact sports betting has on many who participate. Damaged relationships, inability to pay bills, bankruptcy. Yet despite in his logical mind knowing all this McKay found himself drawn more deeply into the gambling culture.

Stepping back into the investment world the data is clear. Those who dive into short-term trading, stepping in and out of markets based on a personal perception of risk, will almost always come up short. Peter Lynch, a renowned fund manager at Fidelity from the late 1970’s into 1990, when asked about selling positions to raise cash in anticipation of market downturns stated:

“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than in the corrections themselves.”

Think and act long-term. Own good companies. Understand that volatility is a feature of markets.

There are many things to worry about in the world today. Perhaps more so than usual. Yet the world is not ending and even the most intractable issues have a way of passing on. Good companies will continue to generate earnings by providing value to customers. And they work hard every day to be sure their value proposition continues to grow. These are the types of companies we select to build your portfolios.

Thank you for taking the time to read this note and for your continued trust and confidence in the Albion Team.

“Volatility is the price of admission. The prize inside are superior long-term returns. You must pay the price to get the returns.” ~Morgan Housel

ECONOMY & MARKETS BY JASON WARE

The fundamental backdrop in the first quarter was defined less by extremes and more by balance. GDP growth persists, inflation is contained, and interest rates no longer work against the economy the way they did just a couple years back. In short, things are functioning—and from our perch, recession risk remains small. In fact, somewhat counter to current consensus, we think the next move in the economy may be gently higher, not lower.

Starting with the US economy, the data overall point to firm, trend growth. Real GDP is tracking near a +2% pace—typical for a mature but healthy expansion. Consumer spending remains the backbone, supported by rising real incomes, healthy household balance sheets, and a labor market that continues to hold up. Sure, hiring has slowed and job demand has normalized, but unemployment remains low and layoffs are limited. This is a labor market that is cooling, but not breaking.

Where we may differ from the prevailing narrative is in what comes next. With consumer spending still firm, AI-related investment robust, and fiscal tailwinds providing incremental support, we see a path toward slightly stronger growth as the year unfolds. Put differently, the economy does not appear to be rolling over. It appears to be recalibrating, with the potential to reaccelerate at the margin.

Inflation has settled into the upper-2% range (long been our call). Goods prices are up due to tariffs, while services costs are moderately elevated but stable. That leaves the Federal Reserve close to where it wants inflation, but not quite there (yet). Importantly, inflation at these levels is not an obstacle to the economy, financial markets, or corporate profitability, even if it does keep policymakers vigilant.

Meanwhile, interest rates and bond yields are steady. After three more Fed cuts in late-2025, borrowing costs are now near levels that neither stimulate nor slow the economy (“neutral”). With inflation still “sticky,” made worse by higher energy prices, we expect rates to remain in a narrow range for now. The hurdle for near-term easing is high in our view, absent a clear weakening in the jobs picture. That said, the Fed is unlikely finished cutting. Assuming the economic expansion endures and inflation gradually cools, there is a reasonable path toward a couple additional cuts over time—just not imminently. Markets often price the destination correctly, but not the timing. From our perch, the Fed sits in wait-and-see mode.

Another layer complicating monetary policy is leadership. Jerome Powell’s term ends in May, with Kevin Warsh expected as the new Chair. Warsh previously served as a Fed Governor during the 2007/08 financial crisis and is generally viewed as pragmatic, with a strong focus on maintaining credibility around inflation. While leadership transitions can introduce uncertainty and market volatility, we expect broad policy continuity given how decisions at the Fed are made (by committee).

Meanwhile, weaker areas of the economy—namely housing and manufacturing, two sectors most impacted by rates—are stabilizing. Activity remains slow, but early signs of a bottom exist. Mortgage rates below cycle highs are beginning to bring homebuyers back, while recent manufacturing data reveal tentative improvement after a prolonged slump. These areas are not yet drivers of growth. But importantly, they are no longer clear drags.

Corporate profits remain a key pillar of the current expansion. Earnings are expected to grow at a double-digit pace again in 2026, with early visibility into 2027 also constructive. That growth is being driven by a resilient economy, productivity gains, operating efficiency, and sustained investment in technology. We think the durability of this earnings cycle continues to be underappreciated.

Geopolitics, as always, remains a wildcard. Recent developments involving Iran have brought renewed attention to energy markets and regional stability. Oil prices have moved sharply higher, with ripple effects into areas like transportation and agriculture, including fertilizers. We’ve seen similar episodes before, and while they often create short-term noise, they have rarely derailed the broader economy when underlying demand remains intact.

Outside the US, global growth remains decent. Europe is moving forward at a modest pace, emerging markets are benefiting from a relatively favorable currency environment, and China is working through longer-term structural challenges. Overall, the global economy appears to be expanding at a secure clip (about +3%).

Turning to markets, the first quarter’s final weeks served as an always uncomfortable reminder that even promising setups can include periods of volatility. US stocks experienced a decline, driven by higher oil prices, rising yields, acute geopolitical concerns, and a reset in expectations within the tech and AI space. However, pullbacks like this are not only normal—they are healthy. Excessive optimism cools off, valuations reset, and things generally come back into better alignment. Together, these “gut check” moments usually extend the life of a bull market.

Within equities, dips have been most pronounced in the tech and AI-related names that strongly led markets higher in prior periods. But this decline has occurred alongside continued earnings growth, resulting in lower valuations. Indeed, because of the recent correction the S&P 500 now trades at a 20x P/E, in line with its 5-year average and only slightly above its 10-year (~19x). More encouragingly, multiples are now even lower beneath the index’s surface. Select areas now look more attractive and boast durable earnings profiles. Opportunities abound.

All told, business profits remain the anchor. While valuations can fluctuate and narratives shift, it’s the continual growth of earnings that ultimately drives long-term stock returns. And with profits expected to grow in both 2026 and 2027, the fundamental backdrop is supportive. Add a largely benign inflation and rates picture, and we retain our generally positive outlook.

Of course, risks remain. Policy missteps, geopolitical tensions, evolving data, and investor mood swings will, at times, create a bumpy ride. But volatility is a feature—not a flaw—of long-term investing. Our approach is grounded in quality, discipline, diversification, and maintaining a longer run perspective focused on fundamentals rather than headlines.

As always, thanks for your continued trust.

PLANNER’S CORNER BY ANDERS SKAGERBERG, CFP®, EA

What Are You Retiring To?

Anders Skagerberg, CFP®, EA | Senior Wealth Advisor

I recently watched a short animated film called Retirement Plan, directed by John Kelly and voiced by Domhnall Gleeson. It was nominated for an Academy Award this year, and it’s only seven minutes long. In it, a man named Ray sits at the edge of retirement and begins listing everything he’ll finally do once he has the time.

“When I retire… I’ll read the 35 years of saved articles on my reading list. I will finish all those books I started. I’ll learn the names of trees and I’ll know which spring flowers bloom first. I will order wine by year and specific area of Italy, but not in an annoying way.”

The list grows and grows, funny and tender and then increasingly anxious as Ray ages, until it becomes clear that the list itself is the point. Ray isn’t really making a plan. He’s attempting to compress an entire unlived life into whatever time he has left.

It’s a beautiful little film, and I’d encourage you to watch it (it’s free on YouTube). But the reason I bring it up here is that it captures something we see in our work planning for retirement: there can be a gap between being financially ready for retirement and being ready for retirement.

Let’s explore that gap.

The Gap Between the Numbers and the Life

Retirement doesn’t come with a rehearsal.

For some, it is a long-awaited exhale after decades of meaningful, demanding work. For others, it arrives abruptly, forced by corporate restructuring, health issues, or circumstances outside their control. But regardless of how retirement begins, one truth shows up again and again in our work with retirees at Albion:

Being financially ready for retirement does not automatically mean being ready for retirement.

As advisors, we spend a lot of time helping clients assess the numbers. Can you fund retirement? Will your assets support your lifestyle? How resilient is your plan? Those questions matter. A lot. But over the years, we’ve learned that the clients who thrive most in retirement are rarely the ones who simply checked every financial box.

Instead, they’re the ones who can clearly answer a much more human question: What are you retiring to?

Retiring From vs. Retiring To

One of the most important mindset shifts someone can make heading into retirement is this: “I am not retiring from something. I am retiring to something.”

People who focus primarily on what they are leaving behind can struggle with the transition, even if they are more than financially secure. In contrast, those who have clarity around what awaits them on the other side tend to move into retirement with more confidence, energy, and fulfillment.

And often, ironically, those who feel most desperate and burned out in their work can be the least emotionally prepared for retirement. That’s because the more consuming and exhausting a career has been, the more likely it is that work has crowded out hobbies, friendships, and interests outside the office. Often in those situations, work has become the center of gravity for someone’s identity, structure, and social life.

So before you decide you are ready to retire, pause and ask yourself honestly:

What am I retiring to?

And before you answer too quickly, let me say this plainly: golf and pickleball (despite how fun they are) are not a retirement strategy. They can be great additions to a fulfilling retirement, but they don’t provide the foundation. Filling a few hours a week is very different from building a meaningful life structure that can support you for decades.

So what can fill that space?

The Four Cs of a Good Retirement

One of the most useful frameworks I’ve found for thinking about what makes a good retirement (and life) comes from Brian Portnoy’s book The Geometry of Wealth. While it’s not written specifically about retirement, the principles translate beautifully.

Portnoy argues that the recipe for a good life is built on four key ingredients: connection, control, competence, and context.

Let’s walk through these together.

Connection: Having meaningful relationships and a sense of belonging.

Connection is often the most underestimated challenge of retirement. For many people, their job is also their primary social network. Colleagues, clients, and professional routines create daily interaction and a sense of community. When work ends, those connections can fade quickly, leaving an unexpected social vacuum.

A successful retirement includes a deliberate plan for relationships, whether that means nurturing existing friendships, spending more time with family, or intentionally building new communities through volunteering, clubs, faith groups, or hobbies. Loneliness can be one of the greatest threats to health and happiness in retirement.

Control: Having autonomy over your time and decisions.

Control is the area where retirees often experience the most immediate upside. After years of structured schedules, meetings, and obligations, retirement brings a rare and powerful gift: autonomy.

It reminds me of one of my favorite quotes from Morgan Housel, bestselling author of The Psychology of Money (if you haven’t read his book I highly recommend it):

“The ability to do what you want, when you want, with who you want, for as long as you want, is priceless. It is the highest dividend money pays.”

In retirement, you choose how to spend your time, who you spend it with, and what your days look like. This is why you often hear new retirees joke, “Every day is Saturday.” But autonomy also requires intention. Without some structure, unlimited freedom can slowly turn into aimlessness. The happiest retirees tend to use their control not to eliminate structure entirely, but to redesign it around what matters most to them.

Competence: Feeling capable, skilled, and effective.

This is the dimension that catches many people off guard. During your working years, your sense of competence is constantly reinforced. You’re good at what you do and every day you get a little bit better. You solve problems. People rely on you. Retirement can quietly strip that feedback away. A fulfilling retirement includes activities that allow you to continue growing, learning, and contributing in meaningful ways, whether through mentoring, volunteering, teaching, learning new skills, or even part-time work. The goal is not productivity for productivity’s sake. It is the deep human need to feel useful and capable.

Context: Having purpose and a sense of meaning.

Last but certainly not least, context asks the most important question of all: Are you part of something bigger than yourself? Retirement is not the end of your story. It’s a new chapter. People who flourish in retirement tend to see their lives as part of something larger, whether that is family legacy, service, creativity, spirituality, or staying active in their community. Purpose does not have to be grand or public. It simply needs to feel true. When retirees lack context, days can blur together, and time can feel strangely empty.

Bringing It All Together

In the end, money funds retirement, but it does not define it. These four ingredients, connection, control, competence, and context, are what separate a retirement that looks good on paper from one that actually feels good to live.

So whether you’re approaching retirement or already in it, it’s worth considering:

How will your social life change?

What will you continue getting better at each day?

What will you be a part of that’s bigger than yourself?

How will you spend your time when every day is Saturday?

How will you stay connected to the people that are important to you?

As you think through these questions, remember that the beauty is a) there’s no right or wrong answers here and b) your answers can change over time. You may find that what works in early retirement does not work later in retirement, and that is okay. Once you know the ingredients to a good retirement, it’s simply an art project to dial in the right amounts of each.

And to put a bow on all of this, if you haven’t yet, I encourage you to watch the short animated film Retirement Plan. At the very least you’ll get a chuckle out of it, or a cry, or perhaps you’re like me and you’ll get both.

The post Quarterly Letter – First Quarter 2026 appeared first on Albion Financial Group.

Quarterly Letter – Fourth Quarter 2025

Albion Financial — Mon, 05 Jan 2026 16:22:48 +0000

4th Quarter 2025 – Quarterly Letter [PDF]Download

From the desk of John Bird

It’s the time of year when nearly everyone with anything to do with financial markets dives into the forecasting business and lays out a series of predictions for the coming twelve months. The fed will cut rates twice. And raise them once. Or not cut at all. Or cut once and raise them later this year. The S&P will end 2026 at 7,800. Or 6,200. Or unchanged. Hundreds of pundits will weigh in with their forecasts. And why not? There’s no penalty for getting it wrong in the press and hey, if you happen to guess right you can tout your foresight!

It’s quite common for such prognoses to point to a more dour future especially after a year of good returns for investors. And why not? There’s an abundance of media noise about all that could go wrong. 2025 was characterized by volatile headlines, uncertainty across most asset classes, a typical share of natural disasters and a divided body politic with seemingly no way out. We were served a constant diet of things to worry about, reasons to be pessimistic.

Yet in spite of the persistent and occasionally deafening drumbeat of these challenges investors with a long-term perspective and a willingness to stay the course found themselves amply rewarded. As of this writing just before year end the S&P 500 has appreciated more than 19% while broader market indices that were not hauled upward by the outperformance of the Splendid Six (Alphabet, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple, & Amazon) still posted respectable returns. Even the bond market got in on the action with aggregate bond returns in the mid-single digits.

It begs the question: What was the market seeing that those focused on headlines and nervous about volatility did not? Two things; a likely reduction in interest rates and corporate earnings growth. It speaks to the importance of separating the signal from the noise.

One of my co-workers occasionally asks me “where are you shining your flashlight?” The question comes as we try to get clarity on a persistent challenge. The point is to shine your flashlight on those things you can positively influence and avoid shining it on issues that while urgent will ultimately be less important. As investors we shine our light to understand what drives corporate earnings and interest rates over time rather than adding additional illumination to the already bright headlines predicting doom and gloom. To be sure many headline predictions will come to pass. But will they have as much long-term impact on our investments as solid corporate earnings growth? We don’t think so.

At the end of each year I clean up my desktop. Both physically and electronically. In the process I came across a file of charts and graphs, gathered over many years, that I found interesting at the time. Here is one from December 2016 published by a well known investment research group in which they make their predictions for the next ten years. Please note that I do think this group is thoughtful and analytical in their work. Yet… It doesn’t seem to matter.

The chart projects US Equities would achieve a ten-year compound annual return of 3.5% from 2016 through 2026. Smart people came up with this projection. Yet equity markets have dramatically outperformed this thoughtful and well meaning forecast. For us the message is clear. Continue to seek out and own investments that over time will grow their earnings at a rate greater than the economy as a whole. Around here the mantra is OGC: Own good companies. Focus on the companies. Not predictions of future market behavior.

Albion has had another year of growth and change. Our goal has always been to keep our capacity ahead of our workload so the value we bring to the table on behalf of our clients grows every year. Toward that end we added additional depth to the investment team by bringing on Bo Wilkinson and Zachary Riley. Heath Heavy also contributes to the investment effort splitting his time between financial planning and portfolio management. Our wealth management team brought on board Jackson Watson, Ian Bird and Lily Prunty to ensure we not only have the capacity to meet the needs of our existing clients but to be able to help others who would benefit from what we do.

I personally find there is much to be grateful for as we reach year end 2025. I hope you also had a positive 2025 and are looking forward to the joys and adventures 2026 will bring.

Economy and Markets by Jason Ware

As 2025 comes to a close, the dominant feature of the economic and market landscape is not drama—but durability. In a year marked by persistent skepticism, shifting narratives, unrelenting headline risk, and, of course, a nasty market correction in the spring, underlying fundamentals have proven more resilient than many expected.

Starting with the economy, growth was bumpy but proved itself throughout the back half of the year. After rebounding from tariff-related distortions early in 2025, real GDP settled into a sustainable pace near +2% for the full calendar year. That’s slower than the post-pandemic surge, but entirely consistent with a stable expansion. Consumer spending and AI investment continue to do most of the heavy lifting, supported by rising real incomes, healthy household balance sheets in aggregate, a labor market that—while cooling—remains adequate, and massive spending on tech infrastructure. Services activity, which represents the vast majority of US economic output, stayed robust through the quarter.

The labor market continues to normalize. Job growth slowed further, but unemployment remains low, layoffs stayed contained, and wage growth continued to outpace inflation. Importantly, this cooling has occurred without the type of dislocation typically associated with recessions. From our perch, a labor market that is less frenetic and still supportive of general employment and income growth is a constructive development—not a warning sign.

Inflation behaved largely as expected. Headline and core measures drifted sideways to modestly lower, settling into the upper-2% range. Goods inflation has remained mostly benign (even with tariffs!), while services inflation—particularly housing and insurance—proved stickier but continued to ease at the margins. While this is not a return to the ultra-low inflation regime of the 2010s, it is a world far removed from the price instability of the 2021–2023 period. In our view, inflation in this range is compatible with continued economic growth and healthy capital markets.

On monetary policy, after roughly nine months on hold, the Federal Reserve began a second wave of easing. Additional rate cuts since late September brought policy closer to what officials view as neutral, modestly easing financial conditions. As has been the case all year, the Fed emphasized data dependence over pre-commitment. The precise timing of future moves remains uncertain, but from our standpoint, the destination—a policy rate likely in the low-3% range—matters far more than the month-to-month path.

One additional point worth noting as we peer into 2026: a new Fed Chair is expected to take the helm before midyear. All else equal, this transition, at the margin, could introduce a somewhat more dovish tilt than we think is otherwise warranted.

Against this backdrop, equity markets continued to advance with corporate earnings leading the charge. Indeed, S&P 500 profits grew at a double-digit pace in 2025, supported by solid revenue growth, productivity gains, margin resilience, and sustained investment in technology, automation, and AI-related infrastructure. While mega-cap technology companies remained influential, leadership broadened at times to include industrials, financials, healthcare, and select cyclicals—an encouraging sign for market depth.

Valuation remains the most common concern we hear, and it’s a reasonable one. By most historical measures, equities are not cheap. However, valuation is a poor short-term timing tool. Elevated multiples have historically been sustained during periods of strong earnings growth, contained inflation, and technological innovation—conditions that broadly describe today’s environment. The more important question is whether business profits can continue to grow. At present, the evidence suggests they can.

As we began 2025, we framed the year ahead as a “year of three twos”: roughly +2% real GDP growth, inflation in the 2s, and two Fed rate cuts. That framework largely held—the only miss being the Fed, which delivered three cuts instead of two. Importantly, this outlook didn’t require heroic assumptions or perfect execution—just a continuation of reasonable trends.

As we look ahead to 2026, the contours appear similar: moderate economic growth, a solid profit trajectory, a robust AI-driven investment backdrop, contained inflation, and a monetary policy stance that is no longer restrictive. On the economy—the fountain from which most of these other dynamics flow—we hold a somewhat out-of-consensus view that growth could re-accelerate modestly next year, driven by persistent consumer spending, continued AI investment, and fresh fiscal tailwinds. By extension, we expect US corporate profits to grow at a double-digit pace again in 2026.

Of course, risks remain. Policy missteps, geopolitical escalation, fiscal imbalances, midterm election dynamics, and periodic bouts of market excess and / or sentiment shifts will introduce volatility along the way. But volatility is a feature—not a bug—of long-term investing. Our focus remains on discipline, diversification, and maintaining a long run perspective grounded in fundamentals rather than headlines.

As always, thanks for your continued trust. Happy New Year!

Planners Corner by Lily Prunty

Starting The New Year with a Plan, an Estate Plan

The holiday season is often a time of reflection over the year now behind us, the people we cherish, and priorities that matter most. These moments of reflection provide an opportunity to revisit important planning decisions with clarity and intention. Estate planning is a critical part of your financial plan, as it is the ultimate key to maintaining control over your wealth, even after your passing.

What is Estate Planning

Estate planning is the process of arranging how your assets and responsibilities will be managed if you become unable to make decisions during your lifetime, and how they will be distributed after your passing. Some key components of estate planning include documents like a will, trust, advanced medical directives, power of attorneys, and beneficiaries designated on your accounts. Some or all these documents may be used to create an estate plan tailored to your specific needs.

Who Needs an Estate Plan

Everyone has an estate, your estate is made up of everything you own: your car, home, personal property, life insurance, furniture, accounts, anything you possess. Everyone can benefit from estate planning, but an effective estate plan should properly reflect your individual circumstances. Whether you are a parent, homeowner, business owner, hold savings or investments, married or part of a blended family, or have charitable goals, these factors create unique needs that an estate plan is designed to address and protect.

Why Estate Planning Matters

Estate planning puts the right people and instructions in place to manage decisions during your lifetime and to ensure your wishes are carried out after your death. It gives you control over how your estate is distributed and is a great way to reduce complexity and confusion for those you have entrusted to manage or settle it. Estate planning also provides direction if you become unable to make decisions during your lifetime due to circumstances such as an accident, illness, or cognitive decline. Through the planning process, you have the ability to establish structures, such as various powers of attorney or health care proxies, that authorize a trusted individual to act and make decisions on your behalf during your lifetime.

Most Common Oversights We See in an Estate

Over time, your life evolves and changes, and we often see that even well-intentioned estate plans can develop gaps when circumstantial changes are not properly reflected in your plan. A general rule-of-thumb, you should review your estate plan at least every 5 years or as significant life events, priorities, or goals have changed. During this review process, several items are commonly overlooked that we recommend clients examine closely:

Beneficiaries not listed or outdated after marriages, divorces, death, birth, or other life events that impact your situation

A plan is in place for death, but not for incapacity, talk with your estate planning attorney to determine which powers of attorney would be appropriate in the event of incapacity

If your home is owned by a trust, it is worth reviewing whether the trust is listed as an additional insured on the homeowner’s insurance policy to help reflect accurate ownership structure on the policy

Estate plans are created with care, but not always communicated to those who will be involved in the plan, conversations with your loved ones about planning can help align expectations and provide clarity

Albion’s Role in the Estate Planning Process

We are not estate planning attorneys; but we can help ensure that your estate plan stays in line with your overall financial picture over time. As part of our planning process, we are able to regularly review all elements of your estate plan, aiming to prevent gaps from developing. One of the key benefits of working with a financial advisor is having someone who understands your entire financial picture who can coordinate directly with your other trusted professionals like your estate planning attorney and CPA. With your permission, we can work alongside them to help ensure your tax, estate, and financial strategies are consistently aligned.

Ultimately, estate planning is more than just tax strategy. It is a wonderful tool that can give you control over the distribution of your assets, minimize complexity for your heirs, and provide you and your loved one’s clarity during an emotional time.

If the past year has brought changes to your life or priorities, we encourage you to revisit your estate plan and contact us with any questions or to discuss potential updates. Our role is to help you maintain confidence and clarity in your comprehensive financial picture.

The post Quarterly Letter – Fourth Quarter 2025 appeared first on Albion Financial Group.

Fall 2025 Client Conference Call

Albion Financial — Fri, 31 Oct 2025 19:19:47 +0000

In the October 2025 Albion Financial Group conference call, leadership including CEO John Bird, President Liz Bernhard, and CIO Jason Ware kicked off with an introduction before diving into strategic planning for the volatile market environment. They analyzed key economic indicators, tackling recession risks, the impacts of a potential government shutdown and furloughs, labor market trends with job growth data, persistent inflation pressures, and evolving interest rate policies. The discussion highlighted timely opportunities amid these challenges, offering actionable perspectives for financial decision-making in an uncertain season.

The Q&A segment addressed audience-submitted questions on practical topics like Albion’s approach to AI in trading (revealing a cautious, non-reliant stance), updates to the Affordable Care Act, upcoming 2026 changes to 401(k) contribution limits, market concentration risks in the “Magnificent Seven” stocks, and the potential for a broader market “reset.” Overall, the session balanced macroeconomic analysis with real-world investor concerns, emphasizing disciplined planning over speculative bets.

The post Fall 2025 Client Conference Call appeared first on Albion Financial Group.

Quarterly Letter – Third Quarter 2025

Albion Financial — Wed, 01 Oct 2025 20:04:11 +0000

Quarterly Letter – 3rd Quarter 2025 [PDF]Download

Introduction

Welcome to our third-quarter update, where we reflect on the key events that shaped the past quarter and share insights to help you prepare for the months ahead. First, “From the Desk of Liz Bernhard,” Albion’s President and Senior Wealth Advisor balances subjective investor sentiments with the stronger realities of hard economic data. Then, Chief Investment Officer Jason Ware analyzes and interprets recent economic events to provide an assessment of our current trajectory. And Senior Wealth Advisor Jackson Watson makes his debut in the Planner’s Corner by framing the remainder of the year around a checklist of practical financial planning considerations. Finally, don’t miss the final segment of this letter to meet the newest members of our team and for registration details to our Fall Conference Call on October 29th.

From Liz Bernhard’s Desk

Vibecession is still a thing

First, a definition.

Vibecession: an economic situation in which people feel like the economy is in a recession even if the objective data such GDP, employment, and inflation don’t actually meet the criteria for a recession.

The term vibecession was coined in 2022 when we had tension between high inflation on one side and strong labor markets and growth on the other. Fast forward 3 years and the disconnect between how people feel about the economy and what is actually happening in the economy is still prevalent. I can’t tell you how many conversations I’ve had recently in which clients express their disbelief at how well their accounts and the markets in general have performed this year. For many, their somber expectations stem from what they hear in the news, on social media, or in their social circles. We know that doom and gloom sell – negative headlines get more attention than positive ones, and just about everything counts as “breaking news” these days. It is easy to understand how people’s perception of the economy may not mirror the objective economic data however, as prudent investors tasked with making the best decisions possible on behalf of our clients, we ask ourselves, what is really happening in the economy?

Let’s dig in.

You may have heard the term “soft data” and wondered what constitutes data that is soft. Statistics on laundry detergent or plush toilet paper? Nope. The term “soft data” is generally used to categorize information about how people feel. Think surveys. Two of the most frequently referenced surveys are the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. Both surveys poll households across the U.S. monthly by asking a series of questions aimed at determining how people feel about the economy, their financial situation, and their outlook for the future. Although they use slightly different methodologies, both surveys (as of August/September) show consumer confidence/sentiment continuing to decline.

Can survey responses be subjective? Absolutely. Wording of questions, the respondents’ recent experiences, headline news, and political identity all contribute to the responses given on these surveys. In fact, consumer sentiment has increasingly diverged along party lines since the early 2000s.

If many consumers are generally feeling uneasy about the current state of the economy and the future, what is driving the markets higher? The answer: hard data! Hard data is not statistics on steel or cement, but rather measurable, quantifiable, observable happenings. The unemployment rate, inflation, GDP, retail sales, businesses fixed investments, and default rates are all examples of hard data. And so far, these data are holding up ok – some might even say they are holding up well (depending on how the question is asked and what side of the bed you woke up on). The overall unemployment rate is hovering around 4.3%, inflation is hovering around 3%, GDP for the second quarter was just revised up to an annual growth rate of 3.8%, and retail sales continue to climb. In this hard data environment companies are growing their earnings – on average earnings of S&P 500 companies are up more than 11% in the last year. Earnings drive stock prices and if companies are growing their earnings, investors are willing to pay more to be owners of the stock.

In an ever-divergent population where data is questioned and opinions are given ad nauseum, where clickbait sells, and feel-good stories are buried on page 6, it seems hard to envision the unification of sentiment. Some portion of the population is always dissatisfied with their current situation and pessimistic about the future. We are human and to be human is to be biased. However, to be a good investor we must put aside our personal feelings colored by our relationships, politics, and beliefs and look at the facts. That doesn’t mean we ignore the collective sentiment of consumers in the U.S. – we would be remiss to do so as consumer spending drives over 70% of our economy. If enough consumers feel bad about their lot in life, this collective sentiment, this “soft data” can impact the hard data too. Yet we must strike a balance. Regardless of your current vibes, we must look through the noise and focus on the measurable, trackable, quantifiable metrics that drive growth.

Thank you for entrusting Albion to do this work on your behalf day after day, year after year. We are honored to be working side by side with you to reach your goals.

Economy and Markets by Jason Ware

The third quarter gave investors more plot twists (when does it not?): the first Fed (FOMC) rate cut in nine months, a notably cooling labor market, green shoots in both housing activity and the manufacturing sector, and equity markets that – despite periodic jolts from Washington – keeps grinding higher.

Beneath the headlines, the real economy continues to expand. Not a boom like just after the pandemic, but a solid pace. After a soft(ish) first half due almost exclusively to spring tariff shocks, growth has resumed and looks far better in the second and third quarters. To wit, we think GDP growth over the summer may have tracked as high as +3% (annualized). For its part, the Atlanta Fed’s ‘GDPNow’ presently sits around +4%. Combined, that keeps full-year growth in a good lane underscoring the resilience of consumer demand and business investment (especially AI capex!). Private sector balance sheets are in good shape. Meanwhile, the job market has cooled but is overall healthy. Unemployment sits at 4.3%, while hiring slowed to sub 50K per month (average) and is more mixed across industries. Manufacturing jobs, energy, and government sectors were a drag while healthcare and education endured as bright spots. Other metrics within the labor market, like layoffs (low), wages (beating inflation), and demand (buoyant, though AI is probably having some impact), suggest that the overall employment situation is constructive. From our perch, waning monthly job adds might have more to do with labor supply than anything else. Consequently, a sub 100K cadence may, for now, be equilibrium.

On the inflation front, things remain sticky, largely benign, though still above Jerome Powell’s 2% goal. The latest read on core PCE – the US central bank’s preferred gauge – ran at 2.9% y/y (headline 2.7%). Services continue to produce most of the inflation we experience, while goods prices are low yet have seen an uptick (perhaps due to tariffs). Within the service category, housing and insurance obstinacy lingers, though drifting down. Overall, inflation has not surprised us, and remains in the zone that we’ve long said was likely (mid/upper-2s).

Housing has stirred a little recently. With mortgage rates easing into the low-6s by late September, purchase and refi activity perked up a bit and pending home sales surprised to the upside (+4% m/m in August). Certainly not boom levels of activity – inventories remain pretty tight – but lower financing costs and buyers finally losing patience have housing transactions thawing some. US manufacturing is also showing some promising signs after over two years mired in a slump. Time will tell if this is a durable upturn … it’s early … but we are encouraged by what we’ve seen in the data lately. Services continue to do more of the economic heavy lifting (as is typical).

On policy, the Fed delivered a fresh rate cut at quarter’s end and (re)emphasized data-dependence. We expect additional easing in the months to come, particularly if the labor side softens further while inflation behaves. The present internal debate on the FOMC is interesting. Some favor moving faster, although the current center of gravity is gradualism. We continue to reason a destination near a mid-3s “neutral” funds rate is sensible; the glidepath will reflect the jobs-inflation tradeoff in the months ahead. Meanwhile, yields finished the quarter lower at the front end (on the Fed cut) but the 10-year Treasury hovers around 4.15% as term premium, growth and inflation data (plus expectations), and supply dynamics offset much of the easing impulse.

Against this backdrop, equities continue their advance. Many US indices notched fresh highs in late September as mega-cap tech, semis, select communication services, and consumer discretionary groups led, while breadth improved on the margins with cyclical participation waxing and waning alongside rates. Small caps also (finally) logged a solid quarter. Indeed, year-to-date returns are firmly positive. Driving this are corporate earnings (critically important) with the summer reporting period posting double-digit growth (+11%). Q3 is tracking for further gains. Importantly, the AI-levered “super earners” still anchor the markets story, but we are seeing some level of a “quiet broadening” under the surface.

Valuation is an open question. By most lenses stocks are “fully valued” versus history, though not egregiously so, expressly when paired with double-digit profit growth – both now and in the pull through 2026/27. There’s also the prospect of policy tailwinds from the Fed as well as tax cuts, deregulation, and other “business friendly” impulses on the fiscal side. Nevertheless, P/E multiples currently carry a premium to long run averages. That premium however is (still) more concentrated in higher growth, exciting areas like tech and AI – which, to date, continue to deliver.

We kicked off 2025 talking about a “year of three-twos”: roughly +2% GDP, core inflation in the (mid) 2s, and at least two Fed cuts. That framework largely holds. Growth is proving sturdier than most feared, inflation sports a 2-handle, and we now have [Fed] “Cut #1” in the books with at least one more plausible before corks pop on New Year’s Eve. Add in steady corporate cash flows, the dream of AI productivity propelling profit margins, and a more pro-growth policy stance (both fiscal and monetary), and the bull case remains intact. Risks haven’t vanished, of course. Policy errors, including ever-present DC drama (e.g., late-September funding standoff, tariffs, etc.), geopolitics, and the penchant for markets to, at times, go to extremes, all could produce turbulence along the way. However, volatility is part of the experience in the stock market on the path toward reaping the magic of compounding returns.

As always, we’ll keep adapting as facts change and stay grounded in what matters – discipline, resilience, and the long view. Thanks for your trust.

Planner’s Corner by Jackson Watson

Fall Reflections & Year-End Readiness
As the third quarter wraps up and the days start to cool, I always enjoy the slower pace that fall brings—time with loved ones, crisp mornings, and the anticipation of ski season. It’s also a natural moment for reflection: to take stock of what the year has brought, and to focus on what still needs attention before it draws to a close.

While the world around us continues to shift—markets, legislation, technology—the principles of good financial planning remain steady. As we head into the final stretch of the year, the planning team at Albion is here to help you tie up any loose ends and ensure everything is aligned with your goals.

Here are a few key items to review:

Retirement Contributions
If you’re contributing to a 401(k), 403(b), 457(b), or another employer-sponsored plan, now’s a great time to check whether you’re on track to contribute what you intended by the December 31st deadline. Reviewing your paystub or custodian’s website is a helpful place to start—and we’re always here to assist with questions about contribution amounts, Roth vs. traditional, or anything else.
Required Distributions
If you’re turning 73 this year (or are already older), you may need to take Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) from tax-deferred accounts by year-end. First-time RMD recipients have until April 1, 2026—but all others must take their RMD by December 31, 2025. If Albion manages these accounts for you, this is likely already in place. But if you have outside accounts, let’s make sure nothing gets missed.

If you have an inherited IRA that you inherited after 2019, RMDs were not required for 2020-2024, but they must be taken this year. As a reminder, these accounts need to be fully distributed within 10 years.

The same goes for trust distributions—some irrevocable trusts require income to be distributed by year-end. If we manage a trust account for you, we’re happy to help with this review.

Charitable Giving
Gifts of cash or appreciated stock—including to Donor Advised Funds—must be completed by December 31st to count for 2025. If you’re making Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs) from an IRA, those must be made before taking the full RMD, or they won’t reduce your taxable income. Timing matters, and we can help ensure things are processed correctly.
Annual Exclusion Gifting
The end of the year is also a great time to consider annual exclusion gifts as part of your wealth transfer strategy. In 2025, you can gift up to $19,000 per recipient without using any of your lifetime gift and estate tax exemption. Married couples can combine their exclusions to give $38,000 per recipient. These gifts can be a simple, tax-efficient way to support children, grandchildren, or others—and when done consistently over time, they can significantly reduce the size of a taxable estate. To count for 2025, gifts must be completed by December 31st.
Estimated Taxes
Fourth-quarter estimated taxes are due January 15, 2026. This is a good time to check if those payments are still appropriate based on your income and realized gains this year. We can assist in reviewing your year-to-date picture to avoid under -or overpaying.
Roth IRA Conversions
For some clients, converting a portion of pre-tax IRA funds to a Roth IRA can be a valuable long-term strategy—especially if your current tax rate is lower than what you expect in the future. With the OBBBA tax changes arriving in 2026, this may be a particularly important year to review your Roth conversion potential.
Realized Gains & Losses
We’ll review realized gains and losses in Albion-managed accounts, but if you’ve sold assets elsewhere, let us know. We may be able to help coordinate with your CPA or adjust your estimated tax payments accordingly.

Closing Thoughts
The leaves are changing, and the first snowfall won’t be far behind. Just like prepping your skis for the season or doing a bit of fall yard cleanup, a little proactive financial prep now can save stress later.

If any of these items apply to you—or if you simply want to check in—we’re here to help. Thank you for your continued trust, and we look forward to helping you close out the year with confidence.

Albion Community Update

Save the Date

On Wednesday, October 29, 2025 at 10:00 AM MT we will
be hosting our next Client Conference Call. We always look
forward to these calls and greatly value the opportunity to
connect and share ideas with you. We encourage your
participation and welcome any questions you may have—
either live during the call or in advance by sending us an
email. A recording of the call will be available on our blog
and YouTube channel afterwards, and a copy will be
emailed to you. Go to our website to register –
www.albionfinancial.com/events.

New Faces

Please join us in welcoming the newest member of our
Financial Planning team, Lily Prunty. Lily is from Sandy,
Utah. She graduated from Utah Valley University with a
bachelors degree in Personal Financial Planning. Lily also
recently passed the CFP® exam and is working on
completing her certification. She will be working alongside
Michelle Buxton and Paige Christensen.

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Albion Financial Group Surpasses $2 Billion in Assets Under Management

Albion Financial — Mon, 08 Sep 2025 16:30:54 +0000

$2 billion! While we do not measure our success merely by assets under management (AUM), we wanted to highlight this occasion by saying “thank you!” This number means nothing without our clients. This milestone affirms the values and client-focused approach that have defined Albion since our founding – 43 years ago.

Our success is built one relationship at a time, and this growth is a testament to the dedication of each member of our team and the trust of every client we serve. The numbers matter, but what’s most important is that we help people make a lifetime of good financial decisions.

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Quarterly Letter – Second Quarter 2025

Albion Financial — Wed, 16 Jul 2025 20:15:53 +0000

Second Quarter 2025 – Quarterly Letter [PDF]Download

Introduction

As the golden days of summer unfold, this letter’s contributors each offer thoughtful perspectives: John Bird, CEO, characterizes how Albion’s steady guidance to clients aims beyond mere financial success, Jason Ware, CIO, charts the resilience of markets amidst uncertainty, and Senior Wealth Advisor Anders Skagerberg finds wisdom in the quiet growth of both gardens and portfolios. Read through to the Albion Community Update segment for details on our next conference call and to meet the two newest members of our Investment Team.

From John Bird’s Desk

What does it mean to have a successful financial life? It’s a question we’ve devoted our professional lives to understanding so we can guide clients along their own success path. Our work at Albion is concentrated in two overlapping spheres. The first is working to help each client understand their current financial position and where, on the current trajectory, their financial life is heading. We then work over the years to improve that trajectory through financial planning. Intimately associated with that is the second sphere; managing financial assets in service of the plan. Our investment team dives deeply into the economy and markets to identify and monitor investments that individually have merit and as part of a portfolio provide return potential and diversification. Our team must stay abreast of this flood of information every day and work to separate the signal from the noise. It’s ceaseless as financial markets never sleep.

In this quarterly missive you will hear the perspective of Jason Ware, our Chief Investment Officer, who with the rest of the investment team works daily to keep our portfolios on the right track. And you’ll hear from Anders Skagerberg, one of our Senior Wealth Advisors, who will highlight important planning issues and how they might impact you. The work of these teams is the foundation of what we do. But it’s not all we do. And from time to time it’s not the most impactful thing we do.

Is ‘What does it mean to have a successful financial life?’ the right question? I think not. Treating financial success as the primary objective is putting the cart before the horse. But drop a word and the question is better. How about ‘What does it mean to have a successful life?’. Albion’s work is to help our clients plan and manage their financial affairs so they stay on their path of a successful life.

A few examples may help illustrate this point. In just the last several weeks I’ve been fortunate to join client meetings where while a review of financial planning and investment issues was an essential exercise for setting the stage the challenges creating the most concern were less financial and more about life direction.

Taking the significant step to retire is one of these challenges. Our financial planning work provides clarity around the financial resources available in retirement. Portfolios are allocated to support retirement as well. The difficulty is often grappling with the question of “What does it mean to have a successful life?, which by extension requires coming to grips with stepping away from a career that has provided purpose, meaning, identity, and financial success often for decades. Having some notion of what we are retiring to is at least as important as acknowledging all we’ve gained from what we are retiring from.

In a recent meeting a client announced she’d made the decision, informed her employer, and was retiring in six weeks. We of course were excited for her and happy to hear the news. But it wasn’t a surprise. Rather it was the culmination of a long and thoughtful process of exploring what retirement would look like from a variety of perspectives. She’d thought through and had begun engaging in what she was retiring to. She had a strong family and friend group outside the office. And she knew the financial opportunities and limitations retirement would bring.

Working with our clients as they negotiate the challenges of an ill spouse, child, or parent or the death of a spouse, child, or parent are other areas where financial stability is not, nor should it be, the primary focus. However it can be helpful when we are able to work with our clients to help them see a clear path to continued financial stability during such difficult times. The passing of a spouse is very difficult and may lead to a reexamination of life’s priorities. Serving as a sounding board, and a financial check and balance, for surviving spouses during these transitions has been helpful to our clients and gratifying when in some small way we are able to contribute to a better outcome.

I met with a long-time client the other day whose spouse passed away after a protracted Alzheimer’s driven decline. Prior to her decline the two of them were inseparable. They built and ran a business together, played music and traveled together, and were clearly one another’s best friends. Alzheimer’s changed their roles. He became the primary caregiver, she the patient. Now she’s gone. The joy of running and growing the business is not nearly as powerful as it was when he shared challenges and successes with his best friend. Yet it’s been central to his life for five plus decades. He is working to redefine what’s most important to him and to be deliberate about what he’d like the next decade to be. I don’t know if our conversations will truly help him narrow down the potential paths available though I do feel that offering a safe space to explore – and helping keep financial guardrails in place – has offered a modicum of peace of mind.

What are the takeaways? Having a place to explore your prospective path into the future with someone who can listen carefully and without judgement yet help ensure your financial guardrails remain in place may be helpful. Honoring who we are and where we’ve come from yet being open to step out of the past into the future opens a world of possibilities. And finally I’d like to note the primary conclusion from an eighty-five year study by Harvard University into determining the key factors that are the best indicators of being happy in life. It comes down to one: Positive relationships keep us happier, healthier, and help us live longer. It pays to care about one another.

We will continue to work to offer excellent guidance as we endeavor to help you make a lifetime of good financial decisions. We will work to ensure your financial assets are invested to offer a high probability of meeting or exceeding your goals. But this is only part of it. Each of us needs to nurture those relationships that whether we know it or not truly give our life meaning.

Thank you for entrusting your financial-well being to Albion. We will never take your trust for granted and work each day to earn it over again.

Economy and Markets by Jason Ware

The second quarter of 2025 gave investors a bit of everything: acute policy uncertainty, sudden war in the Middle East, a sharp drawdown in stocks, and new all-time highs – all in the span of twelve weeks. April opened with a thud, as newly announced tariffs sent markets into a tailspin. Stocks dropped quickly in almost Covid-like fashion, bond yields jumped, and recession chatter returned. But the panic faded almost as quickly as it began. By the end of the month, the White House had walked back key parts of the tariff plan, easing pressure. Markets stabilized. Come mid-May, they were rallying once again as a second key tariff pause, this time with China, took hold. By late June, the S&P 500 had not only recovered it hit fresh highs and in the face of Israeli and US airstrikes on Iran nuclear facilities. Wow. Markets always seem to climb that “wall of worry.”

Underneath the headlines, the economic backdrop continued to evolve, but not unravel. After a soft first quarter – real GDP slipped slightly into negative territory solely due to a flood of imports ahead of tariffs – the second quarter is shaping up stronger, with current estimates near +3% growth. Averaging the two quarters, the first half of the year is running around +1.5%. Not bad. Meanwhile, the labor market remains healthy. Job creation has normalized and is in positive territory, while unemployment remains stable and wage growth outpaces inflation helping real incomes. Given this employment backdrop consumer spending is holding up, especially among middle- and higher-income households. On the business side, capital investment remains solid led by AI infrastructure, automation, and software. That said, not everything is firing – manufacturing is weak (been in a slump for over 2 years), housing is stuck in a low-transaction freeze, and tighter credit conditions persist. Nevertheless, the US economic engine overall is still running.

Inflation has settled into the “2 percent-plus” zone we’ve long argued would occur. It’s neither reaccelerating nor all the way back to the Fed’s 2% target. Numerically, core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure, hovers in the high-2% currently driven by sticky shelter prices and select other services (like insurance). Going forward, many fret that tariff costs will be an upside impulse to general inflation. From our perch, we doubt that will be the case as the services category cools further.

Speaking of the Fed, Powell & Co. held rates steady through the quarter, signaling a patient stance. The Fed isn’t in a hurry. They want to see how the economy evolves with tariffs and clearer signs that inflation is heading toward target. From our vantagepoint, the destination remains the same … a Fed funds rate in perhaps the high 3% range, which we view as neutral. The path there may just take longer than originally hoped. Indeed, we still pencil in two rate cuts this year, probably commencing in September. The annual gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole later this summer (August) should be interesting.

Against that backdrop, equities have displayed their mettle. The early-April plunge sent the S&P 500 down over -12% (-20% off February highs), yet business earnings and economic data kept coming in resilient, so buyers returned. To wit, first quarter profits rose over +13% year-over-year and early Q2 numbers are tracking positive as well. Full-year EPS is projected to reach ~$270 / share with 2026 estimates near $300. For perspective, that’s nearly double 2019’s pre-pandemic baseline. American companies continue to adapt and grow in ways that defy easy macro narratives.

Valuations, however, are arguably “full.” The S&P now trades at roughly 22x forward earnings (P/E) – historically rich, though supported by good fundamentals. Moreover, valuation tells us little about near-term market direction and that premium may be justified by unmatched domestic corporate vitality – much of which remains concentrated in a few mega-cap names, the epicenter of said dynamism, though it is beginning to broaden. We’re seeing renewed interest in sectors like healthcare, financials, and industrials. Concurrently, after a notable sluggish stretch, other areas like small and mid-cap stocks – even international equities – are starting to show signs of life. We continue to believe that in this environment, where the market’s leadership may be less concentrated, diversification is prudent.

Earlier this year we stated that 2025 could be defined by “three twos”: (roughly) +2% GDP growth, core inflation in the 2s, and two Fed cuts. That framework still holds. It’s a setup that doesn’t require heroic assumptions. With the economy expanding, profits growing, inflation steady and unproblematic, and rates in check, the case for an enduring bull market remains intact. Of course, risks haven’t vanished. Geopolitical friction, policy missteps, and DC politics may stir up volatility. But volatility, as ever, is a feature – not a bug – of long-term investing.

We’ll continue to monitor the shifting landscape, adapt where necessary, and stay grounded in what matters most – discipline, resilience, and taking the long view. Thanks, as always, for your trust.

Planner’s Corner by Anders Skagerberg

This spring has been a big one for me. It’s our first in our new home in Murray, we’ve just welcomed our third child (a healthy boy named Henry), and I’ve been spending many mornings out in the garden.

There’s something about those early hours, cup of coffee in hand, checking on the tomatoes and peppers, trying to figure out why my cucumber plant won’t grow (still a mystery), pulling a few weeds. It’s quiet work. Not flashy. But very satisfying.

What’s been most striking, though, is how much it mirrors the work I do as a financial planner—and how similar growing a garden is to building wealth.

You Can’t Rush Growth, But You Can Set the Stage

There’s a quote I love from Bill Gates:

“Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years.”

That feels especially true for me right now as I look out at my young and untamed garden.

I’ve spent the last few months designing, planting, weeding, laying mulch, and getting the irrigation just right. A lot of the effort is invisible—underground, behind the scenes. The payoff isn’t instant. But if I do it right, I’ll be reaping the rewards for years to come.

Wealth works the same way. The early stages are foundational:

Contributing to retirement accounts
Investing for the long run
Avoiding mistakes
Being patient

It’s easy to lose sight of the long-term vision when you’re knee-deep in the work. But if you can keep that vision in focus, the rewards can be staggering.

Some Things Multiply on Their Own—If You Let Them

I planted strawberries and asparagus this year, and one thing I love about both is that they propagate. They send out runners, expand their reach, and come back season after season, bigger, stronger, more fruitful.

That’s garden compounding at its finest.

When it comes to your money, compounding growth is one of the most powerful forces in investing.

As your investments generate returns, those returns begin to generate their own returns—leading to growth on top of growth. Over time, this creates an exponential curve that’s easy to underestimate but incredibly impactful. With enough time and consistency, compounding becomes a positive feedback loop that can help you reach your financial goals—and potentially go far beyond them.

But you have to give it time and be patient. And of course, you have to protect against weeds.

Weeds Never Pull Themselves

In the garden (especially mine it seems), weeds are inevitable. They pop up after a rainstorm or creep in when you’re not looking. Left alone, they choke out the things you actually want to grow.

Financially, weeds can take the form of:

Delaying your estate plan
Spending more than you make
Jumping in and out of the market

Individual weeds may seem minor in isolation, but over time they drain energy, attention, and resources. Staying on top of them—just like in the garden—is what creates space for the good stuff to thrive.

Sometimes You Have to Get Technical

Here at Albion we talk a lot about simplicity in financial planning and investing—and for good reason. The fundamentals are powerful: spend less than you earn, invest consistently, own great companies, think and act long term, and stay diversified.

But sometimes, getting to simplicity requires complexity behind the scenes.

When I set up my irrigation system this spring, I had to dig into the details: What size dripper for each plant? How long for each zone? How frequently, and at what time of day?

It was technical, tedious, and worth every minute—because once it’s dialed in, everything else runs smoothly.

That’s how I think about tax planning, too.

It’s not glamorous, and it’s often overlooked. But when you fine-tune the details, create solid income projections for the year and compare different tax scenarios and strategies, you begin to understand how you can save money at tax time each and every year.

And just like the irrigation system, once it’s set up right, your financial plan can run more efficiently—with less stress, better results, and just minor changes along the way.

At the end of the day, good gardening and good planning aren’t all that different.

The same principles apply:

Start with a plan.
Dial in the details.
Check in regularly.
Clear the weeds.
Invest long-term.
Stay patient.

And remember—growth might not look dramatic day-to-day, but when you zoom out, you’ll be amazed at what you accomplish.

Here’s to a summer of steady effort and meaningful progress—in your garden, your finances, and your life.

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Albion Financial Group ranked one of “America’s Top RIAs” by FA Magazine

Albion Financial — Fri, 11 Jul 2025 20:53:59 +0000

We are pleased to share that Albion Financial Group has been included in Financial Advisor Magazine’s America’s Top RIAs list for 2025.

About the Ranking

Each year, Financial Advisor Magazine compiles its list of America’s Top Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) based on assets under management (AUM) at independent RIA firms. For the 2025 edition, the ranking includes firms with AUM exceeding $500 million as of December 31, 2024. This recognition places Albion Financial Group among the top-tier advisory firms in the country.

Proudly Representing Salt Lake City

We are especially proud that Albion Financial Group is the only Salt Lake City-based firm to be included in this year’s list. This distinction underscores our position as a pioneer in the financial advisory industry, both locally and nationally.

Looking Back

This ranking highlights the firm’s impressive growth from our founding in 1982. This growth is a reflection of the trust that many individuals and families have placed in our firm to help manage their financial futures. We are grateful for the opportunity to serve our clients and appreciate the confidence they have in us.

Looking Ahead

We thank FA Magazine for this recognition of the hard work of our talented team. We see our growth as a testament to our dedication, expertise, and service to our clients and it inspires us to continue striving for excellence and innovation in all that we do.

Thank you for being part of the Albion community. We look forward to achieving even greater milestones together!

**Albion did not provide compensation to be included in this ranking. The criteria and methodology used are determined by the sponsoring organization and is generally based upon publicly available information. Please note that this ranking is not exhaustive, does not include all financial advisory firms nor does it consider individual client portfolio performance. A firm’s inclusion in this ranking does not constitute an endorsement or guarantee of its services and investors should conduct their own due diligence before selecting an advisory firm.**

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