The Iowa Democratic Party said they had legal advice they could not alter the results of math sheets from precincts, even if it was clear that the sheets contained errors and or miscalculations. One journalist described the sheets as “riddled with errors”.

Sanders’ campaign manager Faiz Shakir told CNN that the count has “been handled incompetently,” and that after it’s said and done, Sanders will have the same amount of delegates as Pete Buttigieg.

Based on the results, the final delegate count for the national convention announced by the Iowa Deocratic Party is 14 for Pete Buttigieg, 12 fror Bernie Sanders, eight for Elizabeth Warren, six for Joe Biden and one forAmy Klobuchar.

This comes despite of a near tie in state delegate equivalent between Buttigieg and Sanders, and Sanders winning the popular vote on first and second alignment by over one percent.

Suspicions have been raised about the integrity of the count, especially since the Democratic National Convention took over following the disaster that was the night.

The count was again halted after satellite caucus numbers showing Sanders pulling back to near level with Buttigieg on state delegate equivalents prior to being finalised tonight.

Just some examples of irregularitiee, highlighted by journalist Daniel Nichanian, include:

• An error from the Des Moines 14th precinct costing Sanders 0.28 SDEs where his opponent received more SDEs in spite of Sanders having 50 votes to his opponent’s 31;
• An error in Carroll County where 0.11 of an SDE that should go to Amy Klobuchar is given to Pete Buttigieg;
• Precincts such as the Sioux City 5th having allocated an additional delegate to the amoun they are actually permitted.

Media outlets, including the Associated Press have shown reluctance to call the race, even after the final official results were released.

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According to the study, Sanders won 52 percent of the vote in the top 32 high-density Latino caucus locations. This is compared to just 15 percent for Joe Biden, 14 percent for Pete Buttigieg and 11 percent for Elizabeth Warren.

In the 12 majority-Latino caucus locations, Sanders won an estimated 67 percent of the vote.

Sanders is estimated to have won a total of 40.2 state delegates from these high-density Latino and majority-Latino caucus precincts.

The Vermont Senator’s strong showing with Latino voters in Iowa will give the campaign confidence that its organizing strategy is working heading into Nevada, California and Texas, states that have sizable Latino electorates.

Bernie Sanders’ senior adviser Jeff Weaver said that campaign began reaching out to Latino voters early on. “I think that [Sanders’] own immigrant story connects with Latino voters,” Weaver said.

“I think in many ways Senator Sanders talks about the America that people who came to this country thought they were coming to, and it’s an aspirational community that I think, they really like Senator Sanders’ message.”

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Of the 3,000 likely voters surveyed, 72 percent said they were contacted directly by an individual on behalf of the campaign, either by phone or in person. No other candidate in the state came close to that level of direct voter contact.

Amy Klobuchar’s campaign reached the fewest number of voters, just 41 percent overall. Joe Biden didn’t fare much better, reaching 51 percent of Iowa voters.

Pete Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren, who finished in second and third place in Iowa respectively, reached 66 percent and 63 percent of the electorate respectively.

The survey suggests that direct voter contact plays a major part in winning over voters, with the Sanders campaign knocking on more than 500,000 doors in the Hawkeye state at a rate of one per second.

Research into campaigning techniques has shown door knocking to be the most effective in swinging votes, far more so than direct mail and advertising. The human, face to face aspect makes it a powerful tool.

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Sanders argued that while some results are still to be reported, he is the clear winner in Iowa, leading on the first and final alignment vote totals. The Vermont Senator also pointed out that state delegate equivalents have “greatly diminished importance, and they should.”

In response to calls from Democratic National Committee chair Tom Perez for a re-canvass, Sanders said, “we won an 8-person election by some 6,000 votes. That is not going to change.”

The Iowa Democratic Party have since said that they will only conduct a re-canvass at the request of a candidate, provided they have a credible explanation of the reasons for the request.

In a Facebook post released after the press conference, Sanders said he wanted to, three days late, thank the people of Iowa for the very strong victory at the caucuses on Monday night.

“Thousands of volunteers knocked on hundreds of thousands of doors in the cold and snow. And I want to thank each and every volunteer who participated in that effort, and to thank all of our grassroots campaign contributors whose financial support made that victory possible.”

“We are well-positioned to win the Democratic nomination and defeat the most dangerous president in the modern history of this country.”

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Buttigieg has now won 550 state delegates to Sanders’ 447, a margin of just 0.1 percent. Sanders still leads on the popular vote with 26.5 percent of the final alignment total to Buttigieg’s 25 percent.

NBC News national political correspondent Steve Kornacki said depending on turnout in the remaining satellite caucus, Sanders could nudge Buttigieg for first place.

After the New York Times rated Buttigieg’s chances of winning Iowa all but certain on Wednesday, it suspended its “election needle” after it failed to take into account satellite caucuses.

Sanders’ campaign allocated significant organizing power to these satellite caucuses, with many being held in mosques, universities and in Latino areas.

For instance, at Muslim Community Organization in Des Moines, Sanders picked up all of the precinct’s delegates after no other candidate reached viability.

The Iowa Democratic Party said it had finished counting votes for the night just after midnight in Des Moines. In a statement, the party said it had results from all but one precinct, with records still in transit. It added that it was reviewing a further 53 precincts.

The post Sanders within striking distance of delegate lead in Iowa appeared first on Bernie Post.

With 92 percent counted, Sanders is ahead by around 1200 votes with 26.1 percent, to Pete Buttigieg’s 25.4 percent. Elizabeth Warren is third with 21.4 percent, with Joe Biden on 13.7 percent and Amy Klobuchar on 12.1 percent.

Buttigieg has a close lead in the state delegate equivalent race, with 26.5 percent to Sanders 25.6 percent, Warren on 18.3 percent, Biden 15.9 percent and Klobuchar 12.1 percent.

There are reports however of irregularities, including delegate counts being incorrectly attributed in some counties, with Nate Cohn from the NYT reporting it appears delegates won by Sanders in Polk County had mistakenly been attributed to Tom Steyer and Deval Patrick, just one of a number of issues statewide. Sanders has had a strong showing in satellite caucus results which could also give him a boost late in the count.

It appears the most likely outcome will be close to a draw between Sanders and Buttigieg in terms of who gets the of Iowa’s 41 delegates to the convention in July, with Elizabeth Warren and then Joe Biden likely to claim a small number.

It comes at the end of a good day for Senator Sanders, with polls showing him in a strong lead in New Hampshire and with the latest projection from polling expert Nate Silver showing him as favourite to win all but 2 states up for grabs this month and on Super Tuesday.

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Sanders recorded huge wins at caucuses held at Islamic centres, in black areas and with Hispanic voters. This is a marked shift from 2016, when according to the CNN Iowa entrance poll Sanders won just 34 percent of non white voters in what was effectively a two candidate race. This time, in a spread out field, the figure was 43 percent.

One big issue for Sanders in 2016 being his relative lack of support with minorities, with a narrow loss in Nevada and big loss in South Carolina to finish February killing off the momentum he had gained from his own big win in New Hampshire and his near tie in Iowa.

But this time around, things are looking different. A HarrisX poll released late last month shows Sanders polling at 34 percent nationwide with Hispanics, a boost going in to Nevada where they made up 19 percent of caucus goers in 2016.

Even more crucially, Sanders is picking up support with black voters; he got just 14% of the black vote in South Carolina in 2016; his support levels nationwide are hovering in the low teens, but given the state of the race that’s a reasonable number, and crucially he has high favourability, and an Ipsos poll in mid January put him slightly ahead of Joe Biden, and well ahead of all other candidates when the question was asked “who would you consider voting for”.

All the signs point to Sanders increasingly cutting through with this crucial constituency

Whilst the Iowa and New Hampshire electorates have been quite rightly criticised as being unrepresentative of America as a whole, when combined the 4 electorates that vote in February are much more representative of America as a whole.

For Sanders to take front runner status in to Super Tuesday, he needs to do well in Nevada and South Carolina, and as we’ve outlined, he’s looking increasingly likely to do so. 

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With 62% of the vote counted, Bernie Sanders leads the popular vote with 26.2%, ahead of Pete Buttigieg with 25.1%, Elizabeth Warren with 20.7%, Joe Biden 13.1% and Amy Klobuchar 12.4%.

The results were finally released at a press conference at 5pm ET. Sanders trails slightly on the delegate count, with Pete Buttigieg ahead with 27%, followed by Sanders on 25%, Warren on 18%, Biden 16% and Klobuchar 13%.

Elections analayst and FiveThirtyEight editor in chief Nate Silver tweeted that the popular vote totals should not be ignored in favour of state delegate equivalent numbers.

“Watching CNN, I suppose I didn’t realize how much they’d lean in to state delegate equivalents as opposed to the other metrics,” Silver tweeted after the results emerged.

“I don’t necessarily think it deserves to be put on a pedestal.”

Both the Sanders and Buttigieg campaigns have released their own internal figures, and there was controversy last night after Buttigieg appeared to claim victory, only to clarify this morning that such claims were more figurative than literal.

In a statement following the release of the partial figures, Sanders’ senior adviser Jeff Weaver thanked the people of Iowa.

“We are gratified that in the partial data released so far it’s clear that in the first and second round more people voted for Bernie than any other candidate in the field,” Weaver said.

Regardless of the final result, the campaigns have moved on to New Hampshire which goes to the polls next Tuesday, with Sanders addressing a rally tonight before giving a response to President Trump’s State of the Union.

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In a debacle that could spell the end of caucuses and lose Iowa its position as the first state in the nominating process, no official primary results have yet been released.

In a conference call with presidential campaigns, Price said “a majority” of results would be released at 4pm in Iowa, or 5pm ET. That comment has already been met with confusion and frustration, as campaigns and media demand a full set of results.

It is unclear how big the majority of precincts that the party plans to report will be, and whether it will be a representative sample of the state as a whole. The party has also failed to communicate when a full set of results would be made public.

Bernie Sanders’ campaign has released its own internal figures, showing the Vermont Senator with a lead over the rest of the field. In an email to supporters on Tuesday, campaign manager Faiz Shakir said it was, “unacceptable that the Iowa Democratic Party cannot release votes in a timely way.”

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In an email to supporters on Tuesday, Sanders’ campaign manger Faiz Shakir wrote, “like you, we are disappointed with what happened last night in Iowa.”

“But while we wait for the results, we cannot lose focus of the fact that New Hampshire’s primary, the first in the nation, is just seven days away.”

Iowa Democratic Party chair Troy Price has come under fire after the state party was unable to announce any results on the night of the caucuses, owing to problems with a mobile app that was being used to report results.

“Because of the required paper documentation, we have been able to verify that the data recorded in the app and used to calculate state delegate equivalents is valid and accurate,” Price said in a statement Tuesday morning.

“While our plan is to release results as soon as possible today, our ultimate plan is to ensure that the integrity and accuracy of the process continues to be upheld.”

Early Tuesday morning, Sanders’ campaign released a partial set of results its volunteers had collected from 40 percent of precincts across the state. Those numbers suggested Sanders with a slight edge, with Pete Buttigieg in second place.

Sanders’ campaign has every reason to want to shift focus to New Hampshire. An Emerson College poll released Monday night shows Sanders’ with a double-digit lead in the Granite State.

The Vermont Senator is hitting the ground running, holding a rally tonight, followed by a televised address in response to Donald Trump’s State of the Union speech.

The New Hampshire primary will be held on Tuesday 11 February.

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There were 15 caucus goers in attendance, 14 of whom caucused for Sanders. The remaining attendee caucused for Elizabeth Warren, who was not viable at this caucus, having not reached a 15 percent viability threshold. Warren’s caucus goer declined to realign with Sanders.

The caucus, held at the UFCW Local 230 union hall, is the first of 87 satellite caucuses to be held today, designed to expand participation among voters who would not otherwise be able to attend an evening precinct caucus.

Speaking to Iowa Starting Line, precinct chair Flank Flanders said he applied for the satellite caucus so shift workers could caucus.

“I applied for this because I wanted to get people who work second shift a chance to participate in the Democratic process,” Flanders said. “I feel it is voter suppression that the caucuses are held at such a time that second shift workers can’t attend.”

The post Sanders sweeps first Iowa satellite caucus appeared first on Bernie Post.

But with suspicions lingering about the integrity of the result from Sanders nail biting 2016 loss, in addition to ongoing concerns about hacking and electoral interference from malicious actors, many have been led to ask just how trustworthy the system is.

Whilst Iowa party officials and the Democratic National Committee have gone to great lengths to protect and promote the security of the app, many questions remain.

“The net result is if you’re running an app on a cellphone that has other apps installed, you really don’t know what permissions those other apps have and if they are in a position to be nefarious,” University of Iowa associate professor in computer science Douglas Jones told the Des Moines Register last week.

In short, it seems that in spite of the best efforts of the party, there can be no guarantees as to the absolute security of the app. 

In response to concerns, the Iowa Democratic Party has stated that a number of protections are in place, including paper backs up and providing a hotline should issues arise, with state party chair Troy Price stating “if there is a challenge, we’ll be ready with a backup and a backup to that backup and a backup to the backup to the backup.”

Whilst the focus will mostly be on the candidates, there is also a lot on the line for the Iowa Democrats, with their credibility and status as the first in the nation caucus potentially on the line tonight.

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In the Emerson College survey, 28 percent said they would caucus for Sanders on Monday night. Joe Biden finished in second place with 21 percent, while Pete Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren are the first choice of 15 and 14 percent of voters respectively.

Candidates who do not win at least 15 percent of the vote in a precinct are considered nonviable. Their supporters can then choose to support another candidate, making voters’ second choice a key factor in the Hawkeye State.

Most supporters of Elizabeth Warren, Tom Steyer and Andrew Yang are the widely tipped to support for Sanders in the second round of the caucus.

Not insignificantly, Andrew Yang and investor Tom Steyer hold 9 percent support between them.

The survey of 853 likely Democratic voters was conducted between 30 January and 2 February 2020.

The Iowa caucuses will take place Monday night.

The post Sanders tops final poll before Iowa caucuses appeared first on Bernie Post.

Of the 615 potential Iowa Democratic caucusgoers who responded to the poll, 28 percent said they would vote for Bernie Sanders. 21 percent said they would support Elizabeth Warren, while Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg tied for third with 15 percent support.

Amy Klobuchar, who has seen an increase in support in some polls, remained flat in the Civiqs survey at just 8 percent. Andrew Yang finished sixth with 5 percent.

While 61 percent say their mind is made up, 23 percent said they could be persuaded to change who they support, while 14 percent are undecided.

The Iowa caucuses take place Monday night.

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