South central Manitoba through to eastern Saskatchewan remained under a yellow wind warning from Environment and Climate Change Canada Friday morning, with gusts topping 90 kilometres per hour expected. A rare dust warning had been in place on Thursday due to strong “strong westerly winds … causing reduced visibilities.”

“It’s hard to maintain a positive state of mind on a day like today,” said Jason Kehler Friday morning, May 15.

Kehler, who is chair of the Manitoba Canola Growers, farms near Carman in south-central Manitoba. He had been seeding for the previous 10 days and about halfway finished for the year before being forced to stop on Thursday due to the dust and wind.

“We try so hard to do everything right, and Mother Nature says ‘no, you’re done,’” said Kehler, noting “the wind was so bad (on Thursday), you could hardly see.”

However, while seeding may be delayed by a few days, he remained optimistic overall — especially with welcome rains forecast to follow the wind.

“Other than a miserable day like this, seeding is going very well,” said Kehler. He said more rain would be welcome, but the forecast looks promising.

“It’s a blessing in disguise,” said Kehler, adding that his neighbours had also shut down seeding and this allowed them to get together and have coffee.

The winds downed power lines and caused property damage. There were still about 250 active power outages across southern Manitoba Friday morning, according to Manitoba Hydro.

Moisture conditions worsened in much of British Columbia as much of the province saw below-average precipitation, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s most recent drought monitor shows.

As of the end of April, 27 per cent of the country was classified as abnormally dry or moderate to severe drought. This included 20 per cent of agricultural areas.

Prairies

Large areas of central and northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba saw more than double normal precipitation in April, AAFC said.

Southern Saskatchewan saw the removal of areas classified as severe drought and reductions in abnormally dry and moderate drought area.

Manitoba saw improving moisture across all regions, though there was only limited improvement in northern regions.

Snowstorms late in the month added significant moisture in many regions. However, southern Alberta and the southern Peace Region saw below-average precipitation.

Drought eased across most of Alberta with above-normal precipitation and improved moisture, especially in central and northern areas.

Temperatures were cooler than normal, reaching more than five degrees below normal in parts of northeastern Alberta, east central Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Ontario and Quebec

Precipitation across Ontario and Quebec was generally above normal in April.

Drought conditions improved significantly across much of Ontario due to above normal winter precipitation, “adequate” spring rainfall and snowmelt.

Only a small pocket of abnormally dry conditions remained in northwestern Ontario.

“Agricultural reports indicated optimal to surplus soil moisture in eastern and central Ontario,” the report said.

Above normal precipitation and excess soil moisture delayed fieldwork in western and southern Ontario.

Quebec conditions varied but showed overall improvement. Precipitation ranged from below normal (40 per cent to 85 per cent) in northern areas and south of James Bay to between 85 per cent and 200 per cent of normal in the rest of the province.

Southeastern Quebec saw significant improvement, eliminating areas of moderate and severe drought and reducing abnormally dry areas to a small pocket north of Sherbrooke.

British Columbia

Most of British Columbia saw less than 60 per cent of normal precipitation in April. Large portions of south and central regions saw less than 40 per cent of normal.

Northern regions saw between 85 per cent and 200 per cent of normal precipitation with pockets seeing more than double of normal precipitation.

Drought conditions worsened in the south, and the Cariboo region in central B.C. saw slight worsening.

“Low‑elevation snowpack limited soil moisture recharge despite strong mountain snowpack,” AAFC said.

Temperatures across the province were near normal, though southern interior including the Okanagan, was more than five degrees warmer than average.

Atlantic Canada

Much of the Atlantic region saw near normal to above-normal precipitation. Pockets of New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador saw more than double of normal.

Drought conditions improved in New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island. Changes were mixed in Nova Scotia with improvements in central regions and worsening in northern and southern areas.

Newfoundland was free of drought or abnormal dryness while Labrador saw an expansion of abnormally dry areas and the emergence of a section of moderate drought along the northeastern coast.

• The May long weekend does not look snowy, but it’s not shaping up to be especially warm either.
• Rain is expected across southern and central Alberta on Thursday along with strong winds.
• Showers will spread across Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Thursday and Friday, followed by cool temperatures.

Forecast overview

The weather pattern is shifting — but not toward a warm summer-like setup. Instead, we appear to be moving into a more active pattern featuring intermittent warm spells followed by bouts of unseasonably cool air. While the May long weekend does not look snowy, it is not shaping up to be especially warm either.

We begin this forecast period with a strong area of low pressure moving ashore over the northwestern United States. Ahead of this system, strong southerly winds and some upper-level ridging will bring sunny to partly cloudy skies across the Prairies. This will come with seasonable to slightly above-seasonal temperatures across the Prairies.

The low is expected to then lift northeastward into southern and central Alberta by late Wednesday, where it is expected to intensify. This will bring showers and periods of rain to Alberta overnight Wednesday and through Thursday before the system pushes eastward.

• More Prairie weather coverage: Upper-level lows can drive cold spells

As the low intensifies over Alberta on Thursday, winds will strengthen across Saskatchewan and eventually Manitoba. Temperatures will remain on the mild side thanks to the persistent southerly flow ahead of the system. Showers and a few thundershowers are expected to spread into Saskatchewan and Manitoba during the day Thursday, with unsettled conditions likely continuing into Friday.

As the low pulls away into northwestern Ontario, a cold front will sag southward across the Prairies. This will bring a return to unseasonably cool temperatures for the remainder of the long weekend.

Alberta looks to remain relatively dry through the weekend and into early next week, although the cool air mass combined with strong late-spring sunshine could still trigger daytime cloud development and a few scattered showers.

Meanwhile, southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba will need to keep an eye on another low pressure system. This is forecast to develop over Colorado on Sunday before lifting northeastward toward the Great Lakes early next week. While there is still uncertainty regarding the exact track and strength of this system, it could bring another round of unsettled weather to parts of the eastern Prairies.

Alberta

Alberta will see relatively pleasant conditions through Wednesday with sunny to partly cloudy skies, gusty south winds, and temperatures climbing to near or slightly above seasonal levels. Many southern and central areas should reach the upper teens and lower 20s.

Conditions will begin to deteriorate late Wednesday as the strengthening U.S. low moves into the province. Rain is expected to spread north and east overnight Wednesday and continue through much of Thursday. A few embedded thundershowers are also possible, especially across southern Alberta.

As the low deepens on Thursday, winds will become quite strong, especially across central and southern regions. Areas closer to the foothills and central Alberta could see periods of steady rain, while southern sections may experience more intermittent showers.

By Friday, the system will begin pulling away into Saskatchewan, headed for northwestern Ontario. Cooler air will spill southward across the province. Daytime highs through the long weekend will likely struggling to move much beyond the low teens.

While widespread precipitation is not expected over the weekend, the cool upper-level pattern may still trigger scattered afternoon clouds and isolated showers, particularly across central and northern Alberta.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Saskatchewan and Manitoba will begin this forecast period on the warm side of the approaching storm system, with strengthening southerly winds drawing mild air northward across the Prairies. Wednesday should feature sunny to partly sunny skies along with temperatures climbing into the upper teens and lower 20s. Winds will steadily increase through the day.

Unsettled weather will take over beginning Thursday as the Alberta low pushes eastward. Showers and periods of rain will overspread Saskatchewan during the day Thursday. It will expand into Manitoba on Thursday night and into Friday. Scattered thundershowers will also be possible, particularly across southern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba.

• More from Daniel Bezte: Why is the sky blue?

Strong winds will accompany this system, especially Thursday afternoon and evening, before shifting northwesterly behind the cold front on Friday.

Temperatures ahead of the system will remain relatively mild, but cooler air will follow for the long weekend. Highs through Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will likely fall below seasonal values across much of both provinces, with brisk winds at times making conditions feel even cooler. The cool, unstable air mass may also generate periods of cloudiness and scattered showers.

Attention will then turn to another potential low pressure system forecast to develop over Colorado late Sunday and to track toward the Great Lakes early next week. Southern Saskatchewan and especially southern Manitoba could see another round of rain and gusty winds Monday into Tuesday if the system develops as currently projected.

• Upper ridging will dominate across Alberta, allowing most regions to see sunny to partly cloudy skies along with mild spring temperatures.
• Saskatchewan will see a mix of sun and cloud as periodic weak areas of low-pressure ride over the western ridge and move quickly through the province.
• A low over Manitoba will slowly shift eastward, allowing for some clearing skies and a gradual warming trend late in the week, however a the low may retrograde and put a ceiling on climbing temperatures.

Overview

I start to get a little nervous when I begin each forecast sounding the same — but there are increasingly encouraging signs that the weather pattern we’ve been stuck with for the past month may finally break down. This should allow spring to make more meaningful inroads, especially across the eastern Prairies.

Typically, these long-wave patterns last about four to six weeks, so confidence is growing that a shift in the overall pattern is not too far away.

We begin this forecast period with a sharp ridge of high pressure over the West Coast and a large trough of low pressure over eastern Canada. This setup is bringing mild temperatures to much of Alberta and cold and unsettled conditions to Manitoba. Saskatchewan falls somewhere in between.

The wildcard in this forecast period — particularly for Manitoba — will be the behaviour of the embedded area of low pressure within the eastern trough.

• More from Daniel Bezte: How heat from the sun gets around on our planet

The latest model runs show the western ridge slowly pushing eastward and flattening as the area of low pressure over northern Ontario retrogrades westward. As these two features interact, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop and slide southeastward early in the weekend. A second weak area of low pressure is then expected to develop early next week over northern Alberta. It will dive southeastward, bringing a mix of sun and cloud along with the chance of a few showers.

Upper ridging over much of Alberta should help keep temperatures near seasonal values, while across Saskatchewan and Manitoba, temperatures will moderate ahead of each passing low. This will be followed by brief cool-downs as they move through.

Looking further ahead toward the long weekend, the weather models suggest the eastern trough will begin to break down. This would allow milder air to move into the central and eastern Prairies, with the potential for more summery temperatures arriving shortly thereafter.

Alberta

Upper ridging will dominate across Alberta, allowing most regions to see sunny to partly cloudy skies along with mild spring temperatures. Daytime highs are expected to reach the upper teens to around 20°C, with overnight lows falling into the low single digits.

There will be a slight chance of showers as a couple of weak systems slide over the ridge. The first chance comes on Thursday across southern regions, followed by a second opportunity on Friday over northern areas. Any precipitation associated with these systems looks to be light.

Over the weekend, the western ridge is forecasted to push farther east, bringing plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures. These pleasant spring-like conditions should continue into early next week. There is a chance of another weak system moving through northern and central regions on Monday, bringing a few scattered showers, but confidence in this system remains low.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Saskatchewan will begin this forecast period caught between the cold northerly flow over Manitoba and the push of milder air across Alberta. This will result in a mix of sun and cloud as periodic weak areas of low-pressure ride over the western ridge and move quickly through the province.

Temperatures will be relatively mild but may struggle to reach seasonal averages for this time of year. The first weak system is expected to move through on Friday, with a second following on Monday.

• More weather coverage: Farmers face flooding in northeastern Saskatchewan

Across Manitoba, the situation is somewhat different. A strong trough of low pressure over northern Ontario is maintaining a brisk northerly flow, bringing plenty of cloud cover and unseasonably cool temperatures. It appears this low will slowly shift eastward, allowing for some clearing skies and a gradual warming trend late in the week and into the weekend.

However, there are indications that the low may retrograde back to the west over the weekend. If this occurs, expect partly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures, with daytime highs only reaching around 10°C rather than climbing into the mid-teens.

A couple of weak areas of low-pressure are forecast to slide through southern Manitoba, although confidence in these systems remains low. The first could bring a few showers early Saturday, with a second system potentially impacting the region on Monday or Tuesday.

The compound was also found to not harm calves.

The study from Adelaide University looked at the use of bromoform extract oil, made with a red seaweed called Asparagopsis, in 80 pregnant and lactating Angus cows. The study is among the first to test the supplement in grazing conditions.

Across the eight-week trial, researchers found methane emissions were reduced by between 49 and 77 per cent in the cows receiving the supplement.

“This is a substantial reduction, particularly in an extensive system where delivering consistent supplementation can be difficult,” PhD student Kellie Wenham said in a university news release.

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas. In agriculture, it’s primarily produced from food digestion in ruminant animals such as cattle.

Weights, weight gain normal

In the study, researchers split a herd of 80 pregnant Angus cows between two 22.5-hectare (55.6-acre) paddocks. Supplementation of the study group began 21 days before the earliest calving date.

No pasture was available, so the cows were provided with water and hay to eat as desired.

To prevent the calves from eating the supplemented feed, the cow-calf pairs were moved to a third non-experimental paddock 21 days after calving.

The study group of cows received 75 milliliters of a commercially-sourced bromoform extract oil per day with feed and mineral and vitamin supplements. The control cattle received non-supplemented canola oil.

Calves born to the supplemented cows gained weight normally from birth through 150 days and saw no negative effects in development.

The cows also maintained stable weights despite consuming slightly less food while taking the bromoform oil, the release said.

However, the researchers also noted some changes in the supplemented cows’ blood chemistry including a spike in alkaline pH levels.

“These changes were generally within acceptable ranges, but they highlight the need for further research into long-term health impacts and optimal dosing,” said lead researcher Mariana Caetano.

“Minor” changes were also noted in the calves’ blood markers.

“Our findings show that bromoform-based supplements can be effective beyond feedlots, including in pasture-based systems that dominate Australian beef production,” Caetano said.

The researchers noted a need for more research into delivery methods, dosage and long-term impacts on animal health.

Pressure to reduce emissions

Between 1981 and 2021, methane emissions from agriculture rose by five per cent, according to AAFC data. However, for more than a decade emissions have been in decline. AAFC attributes this to a shrinking cattle herd.

About 84 per cent of Canada’s methane emissions come from oil and gas, transportation, buildings, heavy industry and electricity according to a 2021 report from the University of Calgary’s Simpson Centre for Food and Agricultural Policy. Of the remaining 16 per cent, 10 per cent comes from agriculture.

However, Canada’s beef and dairy sectors have felt pressure to reduce emissions. For example, in 2023 the federal government issued the Agricultural Methane Reduction Challenge, which offered funding to projects that would find innovative ways to reduce emissions.

Dairy Farmers of Canada in 2022 set a goal to reach net zero emissions by 2050. The Canadian Cattle Association set a goal to reduce emissions by 33 per cent by 2030. New technology factored into both organizations’ plans.

Methane-reducing feed additives and projects, such as research into a methane-inhibiting vaccine, have struggled to gain traction.

Feed additive Bovaer was registered in Canada in 2024. It purports to reduce methane emissions by 30 per cent in dairy cows and 45 per cent in beef cattle. However, in late 2025, product manager DSM-Firmenich said it wasn’t seeing much interest from Canadian farmers.

Part of the issue is the difficulty of feeding the supplement while cattle are on pasture, AAFC Lethbridge researcher Tim McAllister said.

Cattle producers also lack financial incentives to use methane inhibitors, former AAFC researcher Karen Beauchemin told Glacier FarmMedia in September 2025.

• The forecast period begins with Arctic high pressure firmly in place across the Prairies, bringing a mix of conditions ranging from clear skies to widespread low cloud.
• A strengthening upper ridge should bring increasing amounts of sunshine to Alberta with a return to more seasonable temperatures.
• Lingering Artic high pressure is expected to keep temperatures well below average in Saskatchewan and Manitoba for at least the next couple of days.

I can finally report some encouraging signs that suggest we may finally be starting to break out of the persistent weather pattern that has dominated the past month or so.

Instead of opening this forecast period with a strong area of low pressure impacting some part of the Prairies, we begin with a lingering area of Arctic high pressure. This is bringing well below average temperatures to all three Prairie provinces.

That said, it would be a stretch to say the pattern has fully shifted or that summer weather is ready to move in for good.

Each time I look at the medium-range weather models, I still see a familiar and somewhat frustrating cycle. High pressure and warmer air build over the western Prairies and gradually push eastward only to be followed by another surge of colder Arctic air dropping south and sending temperatures back below average. It’s a classic springtime tug-of-war and for now, neither side is clearly winning.

• More weather coverage: Albedo, Earthshine and the weather

To start this forecast period, Arctic high pressure is firmly in place across the Prairies, bringing a mix of conditions ranging from clear skies to widespread low cloud. With plenty of surface moisture present, low-level clouds can develop quite easily under this pattern. Their exact placement will be difficult to pin down. This will likely lead to noticeable differences in daytime temperatures over short distances.

A building ridge of high pressure along the West Coast will begin to push inland on Thursday to bring a gradual warming trend to western regions. This milder air is expected to spread eastward into Saskatchewan and Manitoba through Thursday and Friday.

Looking ahead to the weekend and early next week, a couple of weak disturbances are forecasted to ride over the top of the ridge as they move eastward. These systems will attempt to push cooler Arctic air into the eastern Prairies late in the weekend and early next week.

At the same time, stronger ridging over western regions should promote more sunshine and allow temperatures to climb to more seasonable levels.

Alberta

The forecast period begins with cool Arctic high pressure, which has been keeping temperatures on the lower side, slowly sliding eastward. This shift is being driven by an upper ridge building over British Columbia and extending into Alberta.

As this ridge strengthens, it should bring increasing amounts of sunshine and a return to more seasonable temperatures. Daytime highs are expected to reach the upper teens to low twenties across much of the province.

Over the weekend, the ridge looks to dominate. This should result in continued sunshine and mild conditions. Temperatures should remain in the upper teens to low twenties for most areas, while far southern regions could see highs pushing into the mid to upper twenties.

By early next week, the pattern begins to shift once again. The models indicate that an area of low pressure may slide southward into the province, bringing increasing cloud cover along with a chance of showers. This activity is expected to begin over northwestern regions on Monday and gradually work its way southward by Tuesday. With this system, temperatures will trend cooler once again, due in part to increased cloud cover and precipitation, but also because of a return to the northwesterly flow that has been a recurring feature this spring.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Across Saskatchewan and Manitoba, cool Arctic high pressure remains in control following the cutoff low that impacted much of Saskatchewan late last week. This lingering pattern is expected to keep temperatures well below average for at least the next couple of days.

One of the main challenges in this setup will be forecasting cloud cover as low-level moisture can lead to significant variability. Areas that see more sunshine may reach daytime highs near 10°C, while regions stuck under persistent cloud will struggle to get above 5°C.

As we move into the weekend, warmer air will begin pushing eastward as the upper ridge expands out of British Columbia and Alberta. However, this ridge is not expected to sustain itself across the entire region. Instead, it will be nudged southward as a couple of disturbances move over top of the rdige late in the weekend and into early next week.

• More weather coverage: Forecast for strong El Niño fans worries about global crops

The first of these systems is forecast to track across more northern regions, bringing slightly cooler temperatures over these regions along with increased cloud cover.

Some of the weather models suggest a second, less certain system. This low is forecasted to drop southeastward from central Alberta through southern Saskatchewan on Monday and Tuesday, bringing cloud cover, showers, and possibly even a few flurries in some areas. Confidence in this system remains relatively low at this point, but it is something that will need to be monitored.

While this second system is expected to largely bypass Manitoba, its development could still impact the region. As it tracks southeastward, it is forecasted to carve out a larger trough of low pressure over eastern North America. If that scenario unfolds, it would maintain a cool northerly flow over the eastern Prairies. This would effectively prolong the stretch of below-average temperatures so far this spring.

Japan’s weather bureau sees a 70 per cent chance of El Niño emerging in the northern hemisphere summer, while China’s climate officials fear it could persist until year-end and India expects below-average monsoon rains for the first time in three years.

“We are already seeing heat and dryness in parts of Australia and India,” said Chris Hyde, a meteorologist at weather intelligence firm Meteomatics based in Switzerland.

WHY IT MATTERS: El Niño could dictate growing season weather conditions around the world.

“The last time we saw similar signals was during the severe 2015 to 2016 El Niño,” he said, adding that the two countries, along with Southeast Asia were the among the regions most susceptible to an El Niño and likely to show the earliest signs.

El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. One of the strongest such patterns occurred in 2015 and 2016, triggering widespread drought in Asia, cutting grain and oilseed output.

Typically linked to heavier rains in North and South America, the phenomenon could also disrupt the U.S. autumn harvest, meteorologists and analysts said.

Adding to the weather woes this year are disruption in supplies of fertilizer, as the Iran war chokes traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a route for about 30 per cent of world trade in urea.

Early dryness in Australia, south Asia

Farmers in parts of Australia’s states of New South Wales and Queensland have already been forced to scale back planting of wheat and canola, following months of low rainfall that have led to shortages of moisture, fertilizer and fuel.

“Our season has completely collapsed,” said Pat Ryan, who grows crops and keeps cattle near Merriwa in New South Wales.

“We haven’t had any decent rain for three of four months now,” he said.

Forecasts show more dryness over the next few months in Australia, the world’s fourth largest exporter of wheat and the No. 2 supplier of canola.

Dry weather in Southeast Asia also threatens production of palm oil and rice.

“The main impact on palm oil is felt six to 15 months later, due to the crop cycle,” said M.R. Chandran, an industry official in Kuala Lumpur, the capital of Malaysia, which is one of the world’s largest producers, along with neighbouring Indonesia.

“A mild episode may cause only limited disruption, but a stronger and longer El Niño event could lead to five per cent to 12 per cent production declines.”

In India, monsoon rains from June to September that are below normal levels could curb yields of summer crops such as rice, cotton and soybeans, while also reducing soil moisture for winter crops like wheat and rapeseed.

“The whole season is going to be below normal,” Hyde added. “There is a potential for severe drought in India, particularly towards August and September.”

This year’s monsoon is likely to bring rain that is just 70 per cent to 90 per cent of the average, Hyde said, slightly less than New Delhi’s forecast of 92 per cent of the long-term average.

Abnormal weather could also be in store for China, the world’s biggest importer of farm products and one of its biggest producers, although it tends to experience less intense impacts of an El Niño.

“A stronger El Niño does increase flooding risk in southern China, so this could hurt rice and vegetable production in those regions,” said Darin Friedrichs, co-founder of Sitonia Consulting.

Risks of disruption in Europe, United States

An El Niño could also dump more rain on Europe and the United States, especially during the U.S. corn and soybean harvest.

While heavier rains in the Americas can offset some of the agricultural losses in Asia, excessive rainfall and floods can disrupt harvests and degrade the quality of grains and oilseeds.

“In Europe, if we have a lot of rain this summer, it could be favourable for corn, and vice versa,” said Benoit Fayaud, a senior grain analyst with commodity data group Expana.

“Then, for European wheat, when El Niño is expected to arrive, harvests should have already begun in Europe,” added Fayaud, who is based in France.

Also worrying farmers is the spectre of fertilizer made scarce as output and supplies of petrochemicals take a knock from the Middle East conflict.

“If fertilizer costs remain high, low rainfall will encourage farmers not to use it,” said Vitor Pistoia at Rabobank in Australia.

“Why spread expensive fertilizer on a crop that is going to be poor anyway? That could be a vicious cycle that compounds yield loss.”

— Additional reporting by Ella Cao in Beijing, Gus Trompiz in Paris and Ashley Tang in Kuala Lumpur

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said heatwaves are becoming more frequent, intense and prolonged, damaging crops, livestock, fisheries and forests.

“Extreme heat is rewriting the script on what farmers, fishers and foresters can grow and when they can grow. In some cases it is even dictating if they can still work,” said Kaveh Zahedi, head of FAO’s climate change office.

“At its core, this report is telling us that we face a very uncertain future,” he told Reuters.

Recent climate datasets show global warming is accelerating, with 2025 ranking among the three hottest years on record, triggering more frequent and severe weather extremes.

Acting as a risk multiplier, extreme heat intensifies droughts, wildfires and pest outbreaks and sharply cuts crop yields once critical temperature thresholds are breached.

Risk escalate as temperatures rise

The report said higher temperatures are shrinking the safety margin that plants, animals and humans rely on to function, with yields for most major crops falling once temperatures exceed about 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit).

Zahedi cited Morocco, where six years of drought were followed by record heatwaves. “This led to a fall in cereal yields by over 40 per cent. It decimated the olive and citrus harvest. Basically, those harvests failed,” he said.

Marine heatwaves are also becoming more frequent, depleting oxygen levels in water and threatening fish stocks. In 2024, 91 per cent of the world’s oceans experienced at least one marine heatwave, the report said.

Risks rise sharply as warming accelerates. The intensity of extreme heat events is expected to roughly double at 2 degrees Celsius of warming and quadruple at 3 degrees, compared with 1.5 degrees, the report said.

Zahedi said every one-degree rise in average global temperatures cuts yields of the world’s four major crops — maize, rice, soya, and wheat – by about 6 per cent.

The FAO and WMO said piecemeal responses were inadequate and called for better risk governance and early warning weather systems to help farmers and fishers take preventive action.

“If you can get the data into the farmers’ hands, they can adjust when they plant, they can adjust what they plant, they can adjust when they harvest,” Zahedi said.

But the report said adaptation alone is not enough, arguing the only lasting solution to the growing threat of extreme heat is ambitious, coordinated action to curb climate change.

A Commission spokesperson said the plan aims to address structural vulnerabilities and market imbalances, boost domestic production of fertilizer and diversify supply chains, supported by regulatory adjustments if needed.

The Commission on Wednesday also announced measures to mitigate the impact of the Iran war on the European Union’s energy markets.

EU farmers yet to feel full brunt of price hike

Global fertilizer prices have jumped following the near total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping route along Iran’s coast through which around one-third of global fertilizer trade passes.

While the EU does not depend on the nitrogen-based fertilizers, namely urea, produced in the Middle East, prices for all types of fertilizers have risen as countries race to source alternatives.

As of April 7, western European urea prices had risen 55 per cent from pre-war levels, according to consultancy Expana.

EU farmers are not currently facing a fertilizer shortage and have not yet been affected by the higher prices as they had largely fulfilled their 2026 planting season needs before the war began in late February.

The Commission’s plan will also include long-term measures to strengthen the EU’s autonomy and accelerate the transition towards decarbonized, low-fossil and circular fertilizers, the spokesperson added.

— Additional reporting by May Angel in London

• A low over Montana is expected to drift northward and into southern Saskatchewan on Thursday. The low is already pushing moisture into southern and central Alberta and is expected to bring snow and rain across the Prairies.
• Colder temperatures are expected to set in across the Prairies with no sustained warm weather expected until the second week of May.

Overview

Once again, we begin a forecast period with a strong area of low pressure impacting the Prairies. The primary effects will be felt across Alberta and Saskatchewan, especially central and northern Saskatchewan.

Manitoba won’t completely miss out on this system, but it is expected to remain on the warmer side of the low, keeping most, if not all, of the precipitation in the form of rain.

A large area of low pressure is currently organizing over Montana. This system is forecast to slowly lift northward into southern Saskatchewan on Thursday, then gradually drift northeast into central Manitoba by Friday. Its slow movement will allow ample moisture to be drawn northward. This should bring rain to southern regions and snow to central and northern areas.

• More from Daniel Bezte: Introduction to Earth’s energy budget

As the system stalls over central Manitoba through the weekend, colder air will wrap in on the western side of the low, changing most precipitation over to snow.

Weather models indicate that this stalled Manitoba low will weaken and gradually break down by Monday or Tuesday. This will result in an extended period of below-average temperatures across the Prairies through the weekend and into at least the first half of next week. In fact, medium-range guidance shows little indication of a significant warm-up through the end of the first week of May.

Alberta

A complex weather system will affect much of Alberta over the next several days. A Montana low is already pushing moisture into southern and central regions, bringing showers and periods of rain.

As the system lifts into southern Saskatchewan on Thursday, colder air will begin to feed into it. This will cause rain to transition to snow. Total accumulations could range from a few centimetres to over 15 cm in some areas. Given the variability of this system, it would be wise to monitor updates from Environment Canada for short-term changes.

As the low drifts into Manitoba and stalls, Alberta will remain under a predominantly unsettled northerly flow through the weekend. Expect cloudy to partly cloudy skies, along with the chance of flurries.

Temperatures will stay well below average, with daytime highs hovering near the freezing mark. As the low weakens late in the weekend and into early next week, the northerly flow will ease, skies will begin to clear, and temperatures will gradually moderate.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Saskatchewan should see one more day of relatively warm temperatures, while Manitoba may hold onto mild conditions for an extra day or two as warm air continues to surge northward ahead of the Montana low.

As the system lifts north, showers and possibly thundershowers are expected to develop across southern and central Saskatchewan late Wednesday. This will evolve into a widespread precipitation event on Thursday, with snow over central and northern regions and rain transitioning to snow across the south. Snowfall could persist into Friday across central and northern areas, with storm totals potentially reaching 30 cm or more, particularly in northern regions.

In Manitoba, showers or thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday as warm air continues to build. Daytime highs could reach the low twenties on Wednesday and possibly Thursday.

• More weather coverage: Here’s Manitoba’s 2026 spring storm forecast

As the low tracks through Saskatchewan and into north-central Manitoba by Saturday, much of the heavier precipitation is expected to remain west and north of the main agricultural regions. The best chances for precipitation on Thursday and Friday will be over far western and northern areas, with some rain changing to snow by Friday into Saturday.

As the low is expected to stall over Manitoba and slowly weaken, both provinces will see plenty of cloud cover and unsettled conditions over the weekend. Expect well below-average temperatures along with the chance of flurries or showers.

Daytime highs in Saskatchewan are forecast to range from -2°C to 3°C, while Manitoba will be slightly milder, with highs between 4°C and 8°C.

Early next week, milder air will begin to return, with daytime highs climbing back toward 10°C. However, a strong and sustained push of spring warmth does not appear likely until at least the second week of May.