After a stretch of warm and sunny weather, changes are on the way as the atmosphere becomes more active. Attention then turns to a stalled frontal boundary that could spark thunderstorms across parts of southeastern Minnesota Friday night.

Warm weekend ahead with increasing storm chances

After what will likely be our hottest day of the year so far, a chance for thunderstorms returns, mainly across southeastern Minnesota. A stalled cold front draped across southern Minnesota will help trigger scattered storms Friday night, especially in areas such as Albert Lea, Rochester, and Austin. The strongest storms are expected to remain just to our south into Iowa, where conditions will be more favorable for severe weather.

If some of the storms become strong they could produce some gusty winds and large hail. Storms could begin developing between 5 p.m. and 7 p.m. and continue through the evening hours.

Low temperatures drop into the 40s north, and low to mid-50s south with winds expected to diminish as well.

Sunny skies and above-normal temperatures are expected Saturday, with highs ranging from the low 60s across northern Minnesota to the upper 70s and lower 80s across central and southern portions of the state.

The weather pattern becomes much more active beginning late Saturday night and especially Sunday. A disturbance developing over the Nebraska area is expected to organize showers and thunderstorms that will spread northeast into Minnesota by early Sunday morning, leading to a wet start to the day.

By Sunday evening, attention turns to a potentially stronger line of storms developing in South Dakota and racing east across southern Minnesota overnight. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted southwestern Minnesota with an enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5), and a slight risk for the southern half of the state.

The severe weather threat is expected to continue into Monday afternoon and evening as another round of storms develops farther east across central and eastern Minnesota.

At this point, all severe weather hazards may be possible Monday depending on where the front ultimately sets up.

The good news in all of this active weather is the rainfall potential. Many communities across Minnesota and western Wisconsin could pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain between Sunday and Monday, with isolated areas seeing more than 3 inches where thunderstorms repeatedly track over the same locations.

This rainfall will significantly improve soil moisture conditions while also helping bring an end to the spring fire weather concerns that have developed across the region over the past several weeks.

Very warm, dry and windy weather is leading to elevated fire weather conditions Friday. Temperatures will soar into the 80s. A stormy setup develops for Sunday and Monday.

Very warm and windy with red flag warnings Friday; stormy Sunday and Monday

We’ll have temperatures that are average for July this afternoon. Look for plenty of sunshine with highs in the 80s across southern Minnesota with 70s north.

Winds will be blustery in northern Minnesota at 15 to 30 mph. Southern Minnesota winds will be a little lighter at 10 to 20 mph.

Afternoon relative humidity values will drop into the 10 to 25 percent range across the state, making for very dry conditions.

Red flag warnings are posted across much of central and northern Minnesota through the evening hours Friday due to those elevated fire weather concerns.

Even in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota, fires are not advised as conditions will be dry and windy also, even if they are below red flag criteria.

The gusty winds and blowing dirt and dust are creating air quality alerts in portions of northwestern Minnesota through Friday evening.

The dust is coming from north-central Montana, which is under severe drought. It blew into North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota on winds that saw gusts of 50 to 65 mph!

Here’s a visible satellite image loop from Thursday evening:

Check the latest air quality conditions, alerts and forecasts here:

That dust has dispersed and is less dense than Thursday evening in northwestern Minnesota but is still visible drifting across northeastern Minnesota and over Lake Superior.

Duluth’s harbor cam shows hazy skies early Friday due to the dust in the air.

While most of Friday will be dry, some thunderstorms will develop Friday evening and overnight across far southern and southeastern Minnesota.

Storms that develop could produce some large hail. There’s a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms forecast for southeastern Minnesota Friday evening into Friday night.

Saturday will be very warm again but less windy with plenty of sun breaking back out. Highs will range from the low 80s south to the 70s and 60s north.

The pattern becomes much more active as several rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible starting Saturday night into Sunday through early Tuesday.

There’s a risk of severe storms especially Sunday but also Monday thanks to higher dew points and atmospheric dynamics in place to allow storms to become more organized.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center has an enhanced risk in southwest Minnesota Sunday.

We’ll likely see a couple days of cooler weather midweek next week in the wake of the storm system. Temperatures will warm up again in time for Memorial Day Weekend.

Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder will continue to move across the region Thursday night as a weak disturbance passes through.

Behind this activity, critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop Friday with gusty winds and very dry air leading to elevated fire danger across much of Minnesota.

Fire danger into Friday; thunderstorms move through Thursday evening

Critical fire weather conditions will continue into Friday across western, northern and central Minnesota as warm temperatures, dry air and gusty winds combine to create dangerous fire weather conditions.

A red flag warning remains in effect for much of the area, with relative humidity values expected to fall into the 10 to 20 percent range Friday afternoon.

Westerly winds will gust between 20 and 30 mph, with isolated gusts up to 45 to 50 mph possible across western Minnesota.

Blowing dust has also become an issue across western Minnesota Thursday due to strong southerly winds. We’ve seen some blowing dust warnings due to visibility concerns.

Visibility reductions have been reported in some areas, creating difficult travel conditions at times. While winds will shift west behind a cold front Friday and should be slightly weaker, localized blowing dust may still occur.

An air quality alert has been issued for northwestern Minnesota through 9 p.m. Friday due to coarse particle pollution from blowing dust expected to continue in the area.

With even warmer temperatures expected, our relative humidity values will dive once again into the 10 to 20-percent range. Breezy westerly winds will gusts 20 to 30 mph with some gusts up to 45 to 50 mph possible in western Minnesota.

In addition to the fire weather concerns, a broken line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue moving eastward across Minnesota and Wisconsin through Thursday evening.

While rainfall amounts are expected to remain light in many areas due to very dry air near the surface, some stronger wind gusts may accompany the showers.

Low temperatures drop into the 50s across the state Thursday night.

A significant warmup is expected on Friday as temperatures surge well above seasonal averages with highs reaching into the 80s and even near 90 degrees in some locations.

The second half of the weekend will bring a change in the weather pattern, introducing more Gulf moisture and increasing the chance for severe thunderstorms.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for severe weather across the southern half of the state on both Sunday and Monday with an enhanced risk of stronger storms Sunday in the southwestern corner of the state.

Damaging winds, large hail, heavy rainfall and a few tornadoes will all be possible if stronger storms develop. Forecast models also suggest the potential for a beneficial 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, which could help improve drought conditions across the state.

While the moderate to severe drought coverage has remained largely unchanged since last week, areas classified as abnormally dry have increased from about 30 percent to 42 percent.

We will continue our warm weather Thursday and winds will pick up again. We also have some scattered showers and thunder chances later in the day with better chances by Sunday and Monday.

Summerlike warmth moves in along with chances of showers, thunder

We have a warm and windy Thursday on the way. Skies will start out sunny, but we’ll see clouds increase Thursday afternoon as the next disturbance develops scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs will range from the low 80s west to the 50s and 60s northeast.

A red flag warning is posted for western Minnesota late Thursday morning into Thursday evening due to elevated fire weather conditions.Relative humidity values will drop to 20 to 30 percent and gusty winds will cause any fire to spread quickly.

We also have a fire weather watch Friday for much of central and northern Minnesota.

Some spotty to scattered showers and isolated storms develop in western Minnesota that will then track east by late afternoon and evening Thursday. Don’t look for a lot of measurable rainfall for most, however.

Winds will increase again Thursday. South winds will develop at 15 to 30 mph with the highest wind speeds to the west. Gusts could top 50 mph or higher in northwestern Minnesota.

That wind will be with us on Friday, too. The wind and low humidity have already prompted a fire weather watch for central and northern Minnesota Friday afternoon.

Friday will bring summerlike temperatures with highs in the 80s across southern Minnesota. Those readings are 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

Increased chances of showers and storms develop for Sunday into Monday as muggier dew points march north from the Gulf into Minnesota. The most active period looks to develop Sunday with scattered waves of showers and storms into Monday and Monday night.

We’ll even have the chance of severe storms Sunday and Monday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center forecasts an enhanced slight risk (level 3 of 5) already for Sunday in southwestern Minnesota with a slight risk (level 2 of 5) across much of central and southern Minnesota.

Importantly, we could be in for a widespread soaking rainfall. While thunderstorms are hit and miss by nature, there will be enough waves of showers and storms where everyone should get some good moisture. Up to 1 to 3 inches of rainfall will be possible Sunday into Tuesday.

The Upper Midwest is heading into another stretch of dangerous fire weather conditions before a major pattern shift brings widespread rain and thunderstorm chances back to the region early next week.

Red flag conditions Thursday with a chance for showers

Wednesday was certainly a 5-star day, featuring lighter winds, temperatures in the low 70s and comfortably low humidity levels. However, that dry air will become more problematic Thursday into Friday as warmer temperatures and breezy winds return the threat of elevated fire weather conditions to the region.

Overnight lows Wednesday night will fall into the low 50s across western Minnesota, low to mid-40s across eastern sections of the state, and chilly upper 30s across the Arrowhead region. A frost advisory remains in effect for Lake and Cook Counties where patchy frost is possible by early Thursday morning.

A storm system tracking through southern Canada on Thursday will tighten the pressure gradient across the northern Plains, leading to very strong southwesterly winds across western and central Minnesota. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph are expected, with gusts frequently reaching 40-50 mph. A wind advisory is in effect for northwestern and western Minnesota until 10 p.m. Thursday.

A red flag warning will be in effect for much of western Minnesota on Thursday as strong winds and low relative humidity values create critical fire weather conditions.

Another day of above-average temperatures is expected, with highs ranging from the lower to mid-70s across northern Minnesota, upper 70s in the Twin Cities metro and southern Minnesota and lower 80s out west.

A line of showers may develop Thursday during the late afternoon into early evening hours. A few isolated showers may also form earlier in the day along a warm front before a cold front sweeps through later Thursday evening.

With rainfall amounts looking fairly limited, Minnesota’s newly greening landscape could certainly use additional moisture. Since May 1, much of the state has received only 10 to 25 percent of normal precipitation for the first half of May.

A surge of summerlike warmth will push temperatures well into the 70s and 80s across the region on Friday. Combined with continued breezy conditions, low humidity and an increasingly dry landscape, fire danger concerns will remain elevated. A fire weather watch has been issued for much of the state, excluding the far southeastern corner.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities has issued a Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday. * AFFECTED AREA...Portions of central, southwest, and west central Minnesota. * TIMING...For the Red Flag Warning, from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday. For the Fire Weather Watch, from Friday morning through Friday evening. * WINDS...For the Red Flag Warning south winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph, and for the Fire Weather Watch west winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...For the Red Flag Warning Around 25 percent, and for the Fire Weather Watch Around 15 to 20 percent. * IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

The weather pattern then takes a dramatic turn heading into the second half of the weekend.

A much more active setup is expected to develop late Sunday into Monday, bringing multiple rounds of beneficial rainfall and thunderstorms to the Upper Midwest. Several forecast models continue to indicate a widespread swath of 1-2 inches of rain, which would provide much-needed moisture after an extended dry stretch.

Along with the rain potential, the threat for severe weather is also increasing. The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined portions of the Upper Midwest in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms on both Sunday and Monday.

It will be important to keep a close eye on the forecast as we head into the second half of the weekend.

Wednesday through the weekend will bring warmer-than-normal temperatures. We also have at least some hopeful signs of some moisture. Showers develop later Thursday and again Sunday.

Above normal temps, rain chances into the weekend

Those who’ve been patently waiting for consistently warm weather will be rewarded in the next several days.

Wednesday through at least Sunday or Monday will bring warmer-than-normal temperatures for most of central a