ECON 100 Introductory Economics (1001): Professor Fitz’s section is remote synchronous.  The class meets via Zoom at 1:50 – 3 p.m. MWF.  Please note that there are two sections of ECON 100.  If you prefer the in-person option, contact Professor Gerard. 

ECON 100 Introductory Economics (1980): Professor Gerard’s section is in person.  The class meeting time is 9:50 – 11 a.m. MWF. The class will meet via Zoom for the first two weeks, and then in person thereafter.  If you do not want to meet in person, you should register for Professor Fitz’s section this term or Professor Lhost’s section next term.

ECON 204 Effective Altruism: Professor Fitz is teaching this in the remote synchronous mode.  The class meets via Zoom from 12:30-1:40 p.m. MWF.

ECON 225 Decision Theory:   Professor Galambos is teaching this course in a mixed modality, which means there are two sections: one in person and one remote.  Class time is the same for both sections: 1:50-3:00 MWF. See the top of the page for details on mixed modality.

ECON 380 Econometrics:  Both of Professor Lhost’s sections are remote asynchronous.   Check the Economics 380 Moodle for further information.

ECON 444 Political Economy of Regulation: Professor Gerard is teaching this course in mixed modality, meaning that there will be two sections: one in person and one remote. Class time is the same for both sections: 9-10:50 a.m Tuesday and Thursday. See the top of the page for details on mixed modality.

ECON 475 Markets and Market Design:  Professor Galambos is teaching this course in mixed modality, meaning that there will be two sections: one in person and one remote. Class time is the same for both sections: 8:30-9:40 MWF. See the top of the page for details on mixed modality.

ECON 601 Senior Experience, Reading Seminar:  Professor Gerard is teaching this in mixed modality, on Tuesdays at 12:30.  Please let him know which mode you prefer: in person or remote by filling out the Doodle poll & registering for the appropriate section (note: the current schedule incorrectly lists the remote mode on TR rather than on just T). Doodle poll is here. See the top of the page for details on mixed modality.

ECON 602 Senior Experience, Research Seminar:  If you plan to take ECON 602, please connect with Professor Lhost about the expectations and logistics.

Date: Tuesday, March 10th, at 4:30pm

Location: Wriston Auditorium

Speaker: Dean Yang. Professor of Economics & Public Policy at the University of Michigan.

Title: Abundance from Abroad: International Migration and the Developing World.

Description: What impact does international migration have on development of migrants’ home areas? Does migration promote economic growth at home? Or does it instead suppress growth and entrepreneurship in origin areas by increasing reliance on migrant remittances? We will explore what the latest research says about how international migration affects development in the world’s poor countries, and discuss some surprising new findings about new development paths that are opened up by international migration.

For those of you interested in Business or “Pre-Business”, economics courses might prove to be extremely valuable, but you do not need to major in economics to develop an excellent set of skills that will make you an attractive job candidate  — or successful entrepreneur — down the line.  Your best bet is to discuss your personal and professional interests with a number of different people, and consult with your advisor on curricular and co-curricular choices that will put you in position to meet your goals.

Advice to Potential Majors:  Students interested in a major in Economics should begin with introductory classes in economics and mathematics.  The first economics class is ECON 100.  We offer a section of ECON 100 each term this year, with Winter currently having the most extra capacity.

Students who have satisfied the ECON 100 requirement should consider taking 200-level classes based on their own interests.   If you are interested in operationalizing some skills, Quantitative Decision Making (ECON 223) is an Excel-heavy modeling and problem solving course.   In the winter we will have Decision Theory (ECON 225) and a Latin American Development course (ECON 2XX).   Spring will feature both Environmental Economics (ECON 280) and Comparative Systems (ECON 215).   The former is an applied economics course, and the latter is more writing intensive consideration of how societies organize economic activity.

There are three intermediate theory courses that are offered sequentially each year – ECON 300 Microeconomics in the Fall, ECON 380 Econometrics in the Winter, ECON 320 in the Spring.  These courses are most effective when taken sequentially in either the sophomore or junior year.  Freshman should not enroll in these courses.

Sophomore year is a good time to take ECON 225 Decision Theory.   This is not a required course, but we strongly recommend it for all majors and minors.   We plant to offer ECON 223 Quantitative Decision Making regularly, and this is an excellent chance to help you develop tools to handle, analyze, and present data.

Mathematics Requirements and Advice:  The introductory mathematics courses are essential because they are foundational to intermediate theory courses.  Calculus (MATH 120 and 130 or MATH 140) is a prerequisite for ECON 300 and ECON 320.  Statistics (MATH 107 or the equivalent) is a prerequisite for ECON 380.  The Math Department requires all students to take the ALEKS exam for placement into MATH 140, MATH 150 or MATH 160.

For our purposes, we believe students should consider MATH 120 and 130 if they are interested in applied problem solving and developing some Excel skills.   Students who plan to take math beyond the calculus sequence should take MATH 140.   The decision on which calculus to take is probably worth a discussion both with the math and the econ department faculty.  Majors must satisfy a calculus requirement to graduate.

A typical sequence for a student who comes in as an economics major.

Freshman: Introductory Economics (ECON 100), 200-level courses based on student interest, Calculus (MATH 120 and 130 or MATH 140).

Sophomore:  Intermediate sequence (ECON 300, 380, 320), 200-level courses based on student interest, Statistics (MATH 107).  ECON 300 and MATH 107 are offered in the fall.

Junior-Senior: Advanced electives.

This sequence can be pushed back a year for those who decide during their sophomore year to pursue an economics degree.

MINOR: The minor requirements are indeed minor.  No significant planning is necessary during the Freshman year to complete this degree, though our recommendations in terms of taking introductory economics and mathematics courses remain the same for majors and minors alike.

AIM Placement: If you scored a 4 or 5 on the AP micro test, you can obtain credit through the Registrar’s office for ECON 100.  This satisfies that requirement for the department, though we strongly suggest you take at least one 200-level course before beginning the 300 sequence.  Talk to a faculty member in economics for appropriate recommendations.

If you earned a 4 or a 5 on the AP macro test, you can obtain 6 units of Lawrence credit, and you should take Economics 100.

For those of you interested in Business or “Pre-Business”, economics courses might prove to be extremely valuable, but you do not need to major in economics to develop an excellent set of skills that will make you an attractive job candidate  — or successful entrepreneur — down the line.  Your best bet is to discuss your personal and professional interests with a number of different people, and consult with your advisor on curricular and co-curricular choices that will put you in position to meet your goals.

Advice to Potential Majors:  Students interested in a major in Economics should begin with introductory classes in economics and mathematics.  The first economics class is ECON 100.  We offer a section of ECON 100 each term this year, with Spring currently having the most extra capacity.

Students who have satisfied the ECON 100 requirement should consider taking 200-level classes based on their own interests.  This year we have Public Economics (ECON 271) in the fall if you want to take something right away.   If you are interested in operationalizing some skills, Quantitative Decision Making (ECON 223) is an Excel-heavy modeling and problem solving course.   In the winter we will have Decision Theory (ECON 225) and a Latin American Development course (ECON 2XX).   Spring will feature both Environmental Economics (ECON 280) and Comparative Systems (ECON 215).   The former is an applied economics course, and the latter is more writing intensive consideration of how societies organize economic activity.

There are three intermediate theory courses that are offered sequentially each year – ECON 300 Microeconomics in the Fall, ECON 380 Econometrics in the Winter, ECON 320 in the Spring.  These courses are most effective when taken sequentially in either the sophomore or junior year.  Freshman should not enroll in these courses.

Sophomore year is a good time to take ECON 225 Decision Theory.   This is not a required course, but we strongly recommend it for all majors and minors.   We will be offereing ECON 223 Quantitative Decision Making….

Mathematics Requirements and Advice:  The introductory mathematics courses are essential because they are foundational to intermediate theory courses.  Calculus (MATH 120 and 130 or MATH 140) is a prerequisite for ECON 300 and ECON 320.  Statistics (MATH 107 or the equivalent) is a prerequisite for ECON 380.

For our purposes, we believe students should consider MATH 120 and 130 if they are interested in applied problem solving and developing some Excel skills.   Students who plan to take math beyond the calculus sequence should take MATH 140.   The decision on which calculus to take is probably worth a discussion both with the math and the econ department faculty.

A typical sequence for a student who comes in as an economics major.

Freshman: Introductory Economics (ECON 100), 200-level courses based on student interest, Calculus (MATH 120 and 130 or MATH 140).

Sophomore:  Intermediate sequence (ECON 300, 380, 320), 200-level courses based on student interest, Statistics (MATH 107).  ECON 300 and MATH 107 are offered in the fall.

Junior-Senior: Advanced electives.

This sequence can be pushed back a year for those who decide during their sophomore year to pursue an economics degree.

MINOR: The minor requirements are indeed minor.  No significant planning is necessary during the Freshman year to complete this degree, though our recommendations in terms of taking introductory economics and mathematics courses remain the same for majors and minors alike.

AIM Placement: If you scored a 4 or 5 on the AP micro test, you can obtain credit through the Registrar’s office for ECON 100.  This satisfies that requirement for the department, though we strongly suggest you take at least one 200-level course before beginning the 300 sequence.  Talk to a faculty member in economics for appropriate recommendations.

If you earned a 4 or a 5 on the AP macro test, you can obtain 6 units of Lawrence credit, and you should take Economics 100.

Advising:   Check out this Advising Syllabus for some guidance on what you can do for yourself, and what your advisor can help you with.  This remarkable document was drafted by Professor Galambos several years ago, endorsed by the Economics Department, and ultimately largely adopted university wide in the recent past.

Back in the day, Modigliani and Brumberg (from their perches in Urbana-Champaign!) posited that individuals smooth out their consumption over the course of their lifetimes. In other words, total individual consumption expenditures are pretty stable, or smooth, from year-to-year, rather than having individuals curb consumption in one year to pay for big expenditures in the next. The big-picture implication is that individuals base their consumption spending on their expectations of lifetime earnings.  So, if I expect to make a lot of money years from now, I will spend at higher levels now, even if I don’t have it yet. As a result, the young and the old spend more than they make, whereas the middle aged make more than they spend.

The Modigliani and Brumberg work is now known as the Life Cycle Hypothesis, and it is a seminal contribution for a number of reasons.  First, it is a micro model that has significant macro implications –aggregate consumption depends on (expected) lifetime income, not current income.  It also implies that government deficits are a source of fiscal “drag” on economic growth.  You can check out more on Modigliani and his contributions at The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics (available at campus IP addresses; otherwise, Google it).

Even if people spend the same total amount of money every year, however,  they will probably be some variation in the items they actually spend it on.  And empirically, of course, this turns out to be the case. Exhibit A: The Atlantic Monthlyhas a fascinating set of figures showing how U.S. consumer spending on various goods and services ranging from booze and smokes to lawn and garden services to men’s furs vary by the age of the consumer.

The figures are instructive.

First off, it appears that men pour increasing amounts of money into their undergarments as they age, reaching “peak underwear” at around age 50.  The average male aged 45-54 will drop about $120 on his drawers during that ten-year stretch. After that, underwear spending falls like a stone, and by age 75 or 80 it appears that most men are only spending a couple bucks a year on those closest to them.

At the same time, however, there is a decided uptick in spending on sleepwear/loungewear. I wonder what’s going on?  (Seems like a job for the Economic Naturalist).

In addition to these brief insights, the graphs seem to corroborate some intuition about how spending changes. For example, it seems that people in their late 20s and early 30s start dropping money on childcare services, which temporarily cuts into the amount spent going out boozing. I guess kids and the nightlife are substitutes, not complements.

It is also noteworthy and possibly surprising that 70-year olds spend as much on the sauce as 20-year olds do.

Or, perhaps that isn’t surprising.

As a bonus, some clever interns at The Atlantic have peppered each graph’s url with sometimes amusing, sometimes trenchant, and sometimes bordering on subversive commentary.

Well played all around.

The graphic above (from a recent Baldwin’s presentation)  displays the three primary forces that affect the magnitude and character of globalization. For further analysis including Milanovic’s “elephant” chart on the global distribution of income, see the full posting here.

.

Exchange rate policy and monetary policy are intrinsically linked.  Countries face what has been called the “Impossible Trinity” or “Trilemma”; they can only choose two of the following: independent monetary policy (setting short term domestic interest rates), fixed exchange rates, and open capital markets.  Thus, a country’s desire to float, fix, manage, or abandon how the price of its currency relates to others depends critically on its views toward monetary policy and the flow of capital into and out of the country. Stated differently, to some extent, all countries (including the U.S.) manipulate their exchange rates by the judgments they make about the trade-offs among the three choices.

Tim Taylor argues that all exchange rates have some negative consequences:

• If they are too low, they hurt net importers.
• If they are too high, they discourage foreign direct investment and net exporters.
• If the rates are too volatile, then the increased uncertainty will reduce economic activity.
• If they are too stable, they can easily deviate sharply from what is needed to balance supply and demand for currencies.

As Taylor puts it, “the bottom line is clear as mud.  Exchange rates are bad if they move higher or lower, or moving, or stable.”

For more detail including attempts to empirically answer the question for the U.S. posed in the title go here.

These contributions, of course, include work on social choice theory (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem), general equilibrium theory, and innovation, and off the top of my head I can point to work on health care, organizational theory, quasi-option values, and a bunch of other stuff.   Truly remarkable.   Here is the New York Times obituary.

Meanwhile, the profession has also recently lost Thomas Schelling (2016), Douglass North (2015), John Nash (2015), Gary Becker (2014), Ronald Coase (2013), and Elinor Ostrom (2012).   You could learn a lot in a little while just reading the obits on these Nobel Prize winners.

Thursday, February 16, 4:30 p.m., Wriston Auditorium

Deal (with) the Burn:  The Political Economy of U.S. Wildfire Management.
Dean Lueck
Ostrom Workshop and Department of Economics
Indiana University

Friday, February 17, 4:30 p.m.    Wriston Auditorium  (Senior Experience speaker)

Seven Secrets of Germany: Economic Resilience in an Era of Global Turbulence
David Audretsch
School of Public and Environmental Affairs
Indiana University

Thursday, March 2, 4:30 p.m.    Wriston Auditorium (Cancelled)

The Brazil Economy in Transition:  Beliefs, Leadership, and Institutional Change
Lee Alston
Ostrom Workshop and Department of Economics
Indiana University

Alston’s NBER paper is here, accessible on LU campus.

Is this time different?  Has the age of technological unemployment arrived?  In their first book on this topic, Race Against the Machine (RAM 2011), Erik Brynjolfsson & Andrew McAfee (B & M) argue that until the 1980s, as shown above, technological improvement and workers’ incomes grew together .  In RAM, they opine we can again bring these two paths together; however, we must equip our labor force with skills to use these technological developments as we have done in the past.

In a second book (2MA, 2014), The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies, B & M offer a more nuanced view. They argue that we should be grateful for the improvements brought forth by technology; however, we need serious policy changes, both short term and long term, to avoid further polarization of the labor force and an increased widening of the distribution of incomes.  They argue as follows:

“Technological progress is going to leave behind some people, perhaps even a lot of people, as it races ahead.  As we’ll demonstrate, there’s never been a better time to be a worker with special skills or the right education, because these people can use technology to create and capture value.  However, there’s never been a worse time to be a worker with only ‘ordinary’ skills and abilities to offer, because computers, robots, and other digital technologies are acquiring these skills and abilities at an extraordinary rate.”

For a short version of 2MA, read “The Great Decoupling: An Interview with Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee” in the Harvard Business Review (June 2015) or watch and listen to Andrew McAfee’s talk on 2MA. To read more about 2MA, go here.