技術上應該還是可以用亂碼來跑民調系統(可排除黃頁中的電話)
跟中華電信要”待選號碼”加以排除也無技術上的困難
只是偶爾會出現空號，台灣的民調公司水準難不成只有這樣?
去國多年，以致不知BBC八零年代政治諷刺劇”是的，部長先生”(Yes, Minister)與”是的，首相先生”(Yes, Prime Minister)，是否在臺灣播放過?英國人畢竟對政治與政府官僚有較深度的瞭解。當看完全本後，你會明白政策是如何形成，同樣也會對所謂引導民調較為瞭解。也是同樣原因，本人對一切民調均予以回絕!
http://www.yes-minister.com/ypmseas1a.htm
YPM 1.2 – The Ministerial Broadcast
Sir Humphrey: “You know what happens: nice young lady comes up to you. Obviously you want to create a good impression, you don’t want to look a fool, do you? So she starts asking you some questions: Mr. Woolley, are you worried about the number of young people without jobs?”
Bernard Woolley: “Yes”
Sir Humphrey: “Are you worried about the rise in crime among teenagers?”
Bernard Woolley: “Yes”
Sir Humphrey: “Do you think there is a lack of discipline in our Comprehensive schools?”
Bernard Woolley: “Yes”
Sir Humphrey: “Do you think young people welcome some authority and leadership in their lives?”
Bernard Woolley: “Yes”
Sir Humphrey: “Do you think they respond to a challenge?”
Bernard Woolley: “Yes”
Sir Humphrey: “Would you be in favour of reintroducing National Service?”
Bernard Woolley: “Oh…well, I suppose I might be.”
Sir Humphrey: “Yes or no?”
Bernard Woolley: “Yes”
Sir Humphrey: “Of course you would, Bernard. After all you told you can’t say no to that. So they don’t mention the first five questions and they publish the last one.”
Bernard Woolley: “Is that really what they do?”
Sir Humphrey: “Well, not the reputable ones no, but there aren’t many of those. So alternatively the young lady can get the opposite result.”
Bernard Woolley: “How?”
Sir Humphrey: “Mr. Woolley, are you worried about the danger of war?”
Bernard Woolley: “Yes”
Sir Humphrey: “Are you worried about the growth of armaments?”
Bernard Woolley: “Yes”
Sir Humphrey: “Do you think there is a danger in giving young people guns and teaching them how to kill?”
Bernard Woolley: “Yes”
Sir Humphrey: “Do you think it is wrong to force people to take up arms against their will?”
Bernard Woolley: “Yes”
Sir Humphrey: “Would you oppose the reintroduction of National Service?”
Bernard Woolley: “Yes”
Sir Humphrey: “There you are, you see Bernard. The perfect balanced sample.”
]]>[站長回覆]：你不識字且在耍白癡吧。本文談的民調，會影響到政黨提名人選的決定。所以本文才談了一下民調技術及盲點。這民調已直接與政治運作結合了，可不是媒體的一篇報導而已。
你不信民調那是你家的事；我談民調的科學性及侷限性，位階遠比你高多了。
必讀的文章
沉默共業的代價
http://drmichaelfu.blogspot.com/
話說，使用全國「中華電信電話號碼簿」的「白頁家用電話」為母體，主要原因還是母體數據夠大，使用其他現有的方式都有母體數不足的狀況。
除非，把選舉民意取樣納入憲法中，以高於隱私權位階的法律強制所有電信公司提供所有用戶的電話或手機…這可行性太低了= =
]]>[站長回覆]：本文其實只在探討那47%未列入母體的，可能是什麼族群，是不是特定族群。
若是特定族群，就會讓母體的均勻隨機性降低。我的推論是那47%是特定族群，不過那應該是常識就可以判斷。
至於這些特定族群的投票意向，那才是大工程。
]]>{站長回覆}：本文談的是「民進黨民調」，以電話簿為抽樣母體是該黨所規定。你接的電話不一定是「民進黨」所主辦的電話民調，有可能是國民黨、平面或電子媒體、苗栗縣候選人自己做。
各家民調的「母體」不同，有些單位可能是取得中華電信的各機房前幾位號碼分佈，，例如說全苗栗縣的前三碼是多少，之後四碼用亂數產生，這也是個方法。
=>有效取樣數若是男女各半，就算男人百分之百贊成，也要女性近七成同意的情況下，才會有84.1%支持開放的數據出現吧?!
2009年澎湖博弈公投結果顯示，不同意票56.44%比支持開放博弈43.56%還高，莫非台灣的兩性觀念開放程度比博弈還自由許多..
當然大母體在某個程度上還是補足了不足
]]>從此, 就沒有問卷調查
但是, 選舉的電話還是會有
所以, 電話全民調的母體是有缺陷
雖然, 隨機抽樣也許能免除母體不全的缺失
抽樣數夠大就能
反應大致的民意動向
我對隨機抽樣雖然有了解
但這樣是否會影響
這有待專供統計學專家去看此問題