Tesla has spent the first half of 2026 pulling back from December highs. Our proprietary model answers the key question: where does the risk-reward stand from here?

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) trades at $391.06 as of July 16, 2026. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Tesla is $439.50, implying 12.39% upside over the next 12 months. The recommendation is buy, with high (90%) model confidence.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

A Pullback From December Highs

Tesla is down 3.81% over the past week and 13.04% year to date, but still up 21.57% over 12 months. The stock sits 15% below its 52-week high of $498.83.

Fundamentals tell a constructive story: Q1 2026 revenue rose 15.78% year over year to $22.39 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 topped expectations, and automotive gross margin expanded to 21.1% from 16.2%. Free cash flow jumped 117% to $1.44 billion, and FSD paid subscribers hit 1.28 million, up 51%.

The Case for $493 and Higher

Our bull scenario points to $492.94, a 26.05% total return. Catalysts include Cybercab production has just started, Semi ramps this year, and CFO Vaibhav Taneja’s guidance to “over $25 billion of CapEx” in 2026 for six factories, AI infrastructure, and Terafab.

Elon Musk described unsupervised FSD reaching customer cars “probably in the fourth quarter” and Optimus as “the biggest product ever”. Robotaxi is live in Austin, Dallas, and Houston with zero reported incidents. Polymarket traders assign an 81.5% probability to Tesla beating its next earnings report.

What Could Push Shares to $383

Our bear case lands at $383.32, a 1.98% decline. Tesla is priced for perfection at a trailing P/E of 357, and energy storage revenue fell 12% YoY in Q1, with regulatory credits sliding to $380 million. Operating expenses grew 37% YoY as AI R&D and Musk’s CEO stock-based comp hit the P&L.

Bulls counter that OpEx growth is investment: operating income still jumped 135.84%, and Taneja acknowledged Tesla is “in a very big capital investment phase” that supports future revenue. Insider selling has been notable, with 30 recent insider transactions skewed toward sales.

How Tesla Stacks Up Against Rivian and Ford

Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) is the closest pure-play EV comparable. Rivian’s $24.67 billion market cap, Q1 2026 revenue of $1.38 billion, and adjusted loss of $0.54 per share show how far Tesla leads on scale and profitability.

Rivian guides to a $1.8 to $2.1 billion EBITDA loss in 2026, making Tesla’s premium multiple defensible.

Ford (NYSE: F) offers a valuation counterpoint. Ford’s Q1 2026 EPS of $0.66 on $43.25 billion in revenue dwarfs Tesla in absolute earnings, yet Ford’s market cap is $55.5 billion.

Ford also pays a 5.4% dividend yield. That contrast frames Tesla as an autonomy and robotics play rather than a traditional automaker. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target is reasonable in that context.

Tesla Price Prediction 2026-2030

Tesla’s 24/7 Wall St. price target of $439.50 and buy rating at 90% confidence rest on expanding auto margins, FSD subscription growth, and a mid-range entry point. The bull thesis strengthens if Cybercab and Robotaxi hit 2026 milestones. The risk case builds if OpEx growth outpaces revenue into 2027.

Our five-year base case projects Tesla at $584.82 by July 2031, a 49.55% total return. These projections assume Tesla executes on autonomy, energy, and Optimus. Meaningful upside or downside could result from unsupervised FSD approval timing in China and Europe.

The post Price Prediction: Tesla Poised for 12% Rally as Profit Margins Improve appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Ford (NYSE:F) is trading at $14.20, and a $2,500 stake today buys into a legacy automaker in the middle of a transformation: leaner Model e losses, a Ford Pro software business scaling into the hundreds of thousands of subscribers, and management pushing toward an 8% adjusted EBIT margin by 2029. The question for a five-year holder is simple: what could that $2,500 actually be worth by 2031?

The Headline Answer

Under the base case, a $2,500 investment in Ford could grow to about $3,557.75 by 2031, a total return of 42.31%. That maps to a modeled five-year price of $20.20 per share, or an annualized return of 7.31%. The model carries a confidence score of 0.9 (High), reflecting stable analyst coverage, positive year-over-year earnings growth, and Ford’s large-cap profile.

Scenario Table: Where the $2,500 Could Land by 2031

Sell-side analysts sit close to today’s price, with an average target of $14.95 and a rating breakdown of 2 Strong Buys, 3 Buys, 15 Holds, and 1 Sell. Sentiment leans 71% Neutral, so the bull thesis largely rests on Ford executing its own plan rather than on Wall Street chasing the stock higher.

The Why Behind the Target

Three drivers underpin the base-case path to $20.20.

1. Ford Pro is the profit engine. The commercial arm posted $1.69 billion of Q1 2026 EBIT and expanded margins to 11.4%. Paid software subscriptions reached 879,000, up 30% year over year, a high-margin recurring-revenue layer that traditional automakers rarely get credit for. Management guides Ford Pro EBIT of $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion for the year.

2. Earnings power is rebuilding. Ford raised full-year 2026 guidance to adjusted EBIT of $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $5.0 billion to $6.0 billion. Q1 2026 delivered EPS of $0.66 on revenue of $43.25 billion, up 6% year over year. Forward EPS of $1.69 against a stock near $14 translates to an implied P/E of about 9, cheap if the margin plan holds.

3. Cash returns cushion the ride. Ford pays a $0.15 quarterly dividend and has issued two elevated payments in the past two years ($0.33 in February 2024 and $0.30 in February 2025). A dividend yield near 5% compounds meaningfully over five years, especially if reinvested. Ford also repurchased $311 million of stock in Q1 2026. Readers looking at income-focused strategies may find our research on building a portfolio you never touch the principal on useful context for how a 5%-yielding cyclical fits alongside more defensive payers.

What Could Sink the Projection

The bear case at $15.17 assumes execution slips. The biggest overhangs are concrete and near-term. Ford flagged roughly $2.0 billion in commodity headwinds (led by aluminum) and about $1.0 billion of tariff impact outside the one-time IEEPA benefit. The Model e segment is still bleeding, with a Q1 2026 loss of $777 million and full-year losses guided at $4.0 billion to $4.5 billion. FY2025 also carried a GAAP net loss of $8.16 billion after $10.7 billion of Model e impairments. Volatility is real too, with a beta of 1.83, meaning any recession or credit tightening would hit Ford harder than the market.

The Bottom Line

A $2,500 stake in Ford maps to a five-year range of roughly $2,671 in the bear case, $3,557.75 in the base case, and $3,922.50 in the bull case, before counting dividends reinvested along the way. The math is only as good as Ford’s execution on Pro software, Model e loss reduction, and the 8% EBIT margin target. This is a projection, not investment advice, and analyst targets are not guarantees. But for investors weighing a cyclical name with a real dividend and a credible transformation plan, the risk-reward through 2031 skews constructive rather than punitive.

The post Ford (F) Price Prediction: How Much a $2,500 Investment Could Be Worth by 2031 appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Two articles showed up in the press this morning. The first was in The New York Times. It read, “The American E.V. Has Been Crushed. Will It Take the U.S. Auto Industry With It?” The Times rarely runs an article so long. The Wall Street Journal ran an article headlined, “Ford Executive Chairman on Chinese Cars: U.S. ‘Can’t Expect to Keep Them Out Forever’. This article was, in part, a talk with Bill Ford, whose family controls the company. As a matter of fact, they have controlled it since its founding in 1903 by Henry Ford with 12 investors and $28,000.

While neither story says the US car industry is dead, each shows that time has almost run out. The two American industrial giants could crumble and affect the lives of hundreds of thousands of people (this includes the companies that supply them). It is harder to imagine a collapse so huge in the history of American business.

The message of both articles is the same. The US has stuck with large SUVs and pick-ups. The Chinese now control the global EV industry. Tariffs that keep these EVs out won’t last forever. What neither said is that gas-powered cars have a tremendous future, at least in the US.  Ford plans to launch a new small EV pickup next year. It doesn’t need to take the risk.

Nothing shows the difference between the Wall St perception of the car industry better than market caps. Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) market cap is $1.49 trillion. GM’s (NYSE: GM)is $69.3 billion. Ford’s (NYSE: F) is $55.7 billion. GM sold 6.18 million vehicles worldwide last year. Ford sold 4.5 million. Tesla sold 1,636,129 vehicles. Some people would argue that Tesla’s market cap is based in part on its robotics and AI futures. But EVs are its business today. Much of the premium is based on that simple fact. and no other.

The evidence of Ford’s future is as well-worn a road as any in the car industry. It began aggressively entering the EV business. It quit on that after one of the greatest strategic mistakes in the car industry’s history. It is left to be the king of large SUVs and pickup trucks, which run on gas (Ford sells a few hybrids). There is a realization among some that Ford should have continued its brutal EV path because, at some point, it would be rewarded by that future. But Ford’s EV gamble had already failed.

But this is the fact. According to Cox Automotive, EVs were about 5% of total new car sales in the US in the second quarter. Overall EV sales were down over 20% from the same quarter last year. While Ford has some temporary supply chain problems, it still owns 13% of the US market, which is the second largest in the world after China. The idea that Americans will eventually flock to Chinese EVs may not be true.

American driving habits may not change much until gas prices jump above, say, $5 and stay there. The world is awash in oil. Who says EVs will be in every American garage?

The post Ford Should Stop Selling EVs appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

There are several reasons not to buy a Rivan. And the list is growing.

Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) has won several awards as one of the best SUVs. But when it comes to the gold standard of quality measurements, that starts to fall apart. In the  JD Power U.S. Initial Quality Survey 2026, there are 246 problems per 100 vehicles owned over the first 90 days of ownership. It is one of the brands marked “it does not meet award criteria.” Power decided to publish it nevertheless. And the press that covers cars jumped on the low-quantity numbers. The number was worse than that of any of the brands evaluated. I use J.D. Power when I shop for cars.

The new R2 SUV is supposed to save the company. Rivian says its base price will be $44,990. Recently, it launched the Performance Launch Edition priced at $59,485. The less expensive model will be released later. So, it is hard to evaluate whether it can measure up to what Rivian says it will

In the meantime, I can buy the R1S SUV, which has a base price of $83,990. It has seven seats. And the R1T pickup costs $79,990. Add a few features, and the prices move above $100,000. The sticker shock gets unbelievable.

Rivan doesn’t have many service centers. So, where should they go for service? In Texas, the second most populous state in America, Rivan has four. It has one in Arizona. However, Rivian has a service called its Mobile Service. Rivian Technicians staff it. The company says, “We prioritize the safety of our technicians and owners by limiting repairs to what’s safe in a Mobile Service environment.”

Rivan has a management problem, based on its results. RJ Scaringe is the founder and CEO. He has voting control of the company. It is not certain whether that was true since he got divorced. In the meantime, he received a $406 million pay package. That is a lot for the CEO of a company that has lost billions of dollars.

One of the things that worries me most is how long Rivian will be around. The company says it has enough cash to stay in business for years. However, in the second quarter, it produced only 12,613 vehicles. In the first quarter, it lost $416 million on revenue of $1.38 billion.

Finally, I usually agree with the view Wall St. has of a company. Rivan’s stock is down 11% this year. The drop since it went public is 87%.

If I’m going to buy an EV SUV, I’d rather get one of the few F-150 Lightnings Ford (NYSE: F) has left. At least I’m sure it can get serviced–for decades.

The post Why I Won’t Buy A Rivian appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is once again eating the financial press, with a $1.58 trillion market cap resting on Cybercab, Optimus, and robotaxi promises that traders keep paying up to own. But here’s what you should actually be watching.

The Hot Ticker Is Selling You a Timeline

Strip away the AI narrative and Tesla is an auto manufacturer trading at 381 times trailing earnings, 200 times forward earnings, and a PEG ratio near 6. Its net profit margin sits at 3.95% and return on equity at 4.9%. Those are industrial-company fundamentals wearing a software-company multiple.

The delivery record is worse than the marketing suggests. Full-year 2025 revenue fell 2.93% and net income dropped 46.79%. Q4 2025 vehicle deliveries came in at 418,227 units, down 16% year over year. Q3 2025 EPS missed by 10.35% while operating expenses jumped 50% YoY on AI and R&D. Cybercab, Semi, and Megapack 3 have been described as “on schedule for volume production starting in 2026” in filings going back to Q2 2025. Same promise, new quarter.

Retail is catching on. The most-discussed Reddit thread in the last 30 days asked flatly: “People buying Tesla at a $1.2T valuation: what is the actual bull case?” It drew 630 comments and 702 upvotes. Shares are down 10.41% year to date and trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This is a crowded trade beginning to lose its choir.

Where Retirement Money Should Actually Look

Ford (NYSE:F) is the redirect. A $55 billion market cap, forward P/E of 8, and a 4.49% dividend yield. Three points make the case.

1. Execution is showing up in the numbers. Q1 2026 delivered EPS of $0.66, revenue of $43.25 billion up 6% YoY, and adjusted EBIT of $3.49 billion, a $2.50 billion improvement year over year. Management then raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance to $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion. Companies raise guidance when the current quarter is already in the bag.

2. Ford Pro is a real recurring-revenue story hiding in plain sight. Paid software subscriptions reached 879,000, up 30% YoY, with segment EBIT margin at 11.4%. That is the sticky commercial-fleet software business Wall Street is willing to pay 40x earnings for elsewhere. Here you get it inside an 8x stock.

3. Capital is coming back to shareholders. A $0.15 quarterly dividend was paid June 1, 2026, alongside $311 million in Q1 buybacks and $17.65 billion in cash. CEO Jim Farley told investors Ford is targeting an “8% adjusted EBIT margin by 2029.” Tesla returns capital through stock-based compensation and pitch decks.

For investors who want direct short exposure to the promise-heavy name rather than the constructive alternative, the AXS TSLA Bear Daily ETF (NASDAQ:TSLQ) holds 22.33% of net assets in inverse Tesla derivatives. That is a tactical trade for short-term positioning only.

For long-term investors weighing the two, Ford offers a profitable automaker paying cash today while Tesla’s timeline continues to slip.

The post Forget Tesla: If You Dislike That Tesla Remains Long on Promises and Short on Delivery, Play This Inverse ETF appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Ford (NYSE: F) should give back its JD Power 2026 U.S. Initial Quality Study award for the best Mass Market Brand. It scored 152 on a scale that rates brands based on problems per 100 vehicles. The award is based on 10 major yardsticks of quality. This is, in turn, based on the first 90 days of ownership by those surveyed. The average among all brands was 175.

Ford has huge product quality problems. The only defense it has to claim to keep the Power rating is that perhaps Ford’s vehicles were well built in the period from June 2025 through May 2026, when the study was in the field. Jim Farley, Ford president and CEO commented on the award, “Many doubted that an American company with a huge American workforce could compete with the world’s best on quality, let alone reach the top.” Actually, many doubted Ford could make it.

Ford’s recall record last year was astonishingly high and set a record. Ford issued 152 recalls, which was a record for any year. Farley has claimed that those were for vehicles built in earlier years. For many of these recalls, that is accurate.

Ford’s recalls this year are off to an amazing pace. Recently, it recalled 43,000 Mach-E EVs. It also recalled several gas-powered Mustangs. The total of the two was about 110,000 vehicles. A few days ago, it recalled 741,000 SUVs and pickups.

Kelley Blue Book reports, “Ford on Pace for Second-Worst Recall Year.” Ford cannot say all of these vehicles were purchased before June 2025.

The fact of the matter is that Ford did well for a snapshot of time, with data from surveys of a modest number of owners. Based on a much larger universe of Ford owners, the numbers are terrible.

Ford’s sales are falling this year. It is not possible to give a single reason why. May sales dropped 13.6% year over year to 190,828. For the year, they are down 11.2% to 826,810.

Ford should give back its U.S. Initial Quality Study. And it should also stop the bragging.

The post Ford Should Give Back Its J.D Power Quality Award appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Rivian’s (NASDAQ: RIVN) stock dropped 18% on news that it would issue new equity to pay off debt. The day before, it was worth half as much as Ford (NYSE: F) based on market cap. Rivian’s is $25 billion today. Ford’s is $53 billion. Rivian’s stock is down 80% since late 2021. It went public in November 2021. Ford’s is close to flat. That means Rivian’s IPO gave it a value well above Ford’s

Rivain will sell about 67,000 vehicles this year. Ford will sell about 4.3 million. What’s wrong with this picture?

Rvian had $5.4 billion in revenue last year and lost $3.5 billion. Ford’s revenue was $187.2 billion, on which it lost $8.2 billion. Ironically, Ford’s loss was due to its EV business.

As astonishing as it may be, Rivian continues to benefit from EV mania, even as the EV sector across the US is in trouble. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has a market cap of $1.51 trillion. However, much of this is based on a future that will presumably have the best AI-driven and self-driving cars and an army of tens of millions of robots. Tesla’s future is worth much more than its present.

The sale of Rivian stock was for 75 million shares at $15.50 per share. They raised $1.2 billion. Most will be used to pay off money due because of the Amended and Restated Loan Arrangement and Reimbursement and Sponsor Support Agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy. Some will be used to help expand the company.

What does Rivian have going for it? One thing that may not work. VW may invest as much as $5.8 billion into a joint venture to build a “next-generation” EV. However, $3.5 billion of the investment is pending and may never be made by VW.

Based on any rational valuation, Rivan is worth much less than its current market cap. This means the stock has much further to fall.

The post Is Rivian Worth Half Of Ford? appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Ford (NYSE:F) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) just closed the books on Q1 2026. Ford leaned on trucks, fleet software, and a raised outlook. Tesla leaned on margin recovery, FSD subscriptions, and a roadmap stuffed with robots. Both grew revenue. Only one is priced like a growth story.

Trucks Carry Ford. Margins Carry Tesla.

Ford posted $43.25 billion in revenue, EPS of $0.66, and adjusted EBIT of $3.49 billion. Ford Blue drove the quarter with $23.9 billion in revenue (up 14%) as F-Series, Bronco, and Expedition kept humming, with off-road trims making up roughly a quarter of U.S. sales. Ford Pro delivered an 11.4% margin and grew paid software subscriptions 30% year over year to 879,000. Model e still bled $777 million.

Tesla posted revenue of $22.39 billion (up 15.78%), non-GAAP EPS of $0.41, and automotive gross margin of 21.1% from 16.2%. FSD subscriptions climbed to 1.28 million, up 51%. Services revenue jumped 42%. Energy storage dropped 12%.

Deep Value Truck Maker vs. AI Fleet Operator

Jim Farley framed the quarter as validation: “Our strong first-quarter results and raised full-year guidance reflect the momentum of the Ford+ plan.” Ford lifted 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance to $8.5B to $10.5B. A $1.30 billion IEEPA tariff benefit flattered the earnings report, and commodity headwinds run near $2 billion. Tesla is spending $1.95 billion on R&D and sitting on $44.7 billion in cash, funding Cybercab, Semi, Megapack 3, and Optimus lines rated for 1 million robots per year at Fremont.

The Next Test Is Whether AI Revenue Scales

Watch two things. For Ford, whether the Universal EV platform can narrow Model e’s $4.0B to $4.5B projected 2026 loss without gutting Blue’s cash generation. For Tesla, whether robotaxi rides in Dallas and Houston convert into real revenue. Polymarket traders assign only 12% odds to an Optimus release by year-end and 7.5% to Robovan orders opening before 2027. That is significant runway priced into a 357 trailing multiple.

Why I Lean Toward Tesla, With One Caveat

Ford at a forward multiple of 8 and a 4.4% yield is tempting, especially after 13 directors bought stock at $13.22 on May 21. If you want income and a turnaround narrative, Ford fits.

But structure matters. Tesla’s 21.1% automotive gross margin and scaling FSD base signal a software mix shift, while Ford funnels combustion profits into an EV unit losing billions. Tesla is the better long-term compounder. I would trim conviction if FSD monetization stalls or if one-time warranty and tariff gains reverse next quarter. Both can work. Tesla’s ceiling is higher.

The post Ford Vs. Tesla: 2 American Icons With Upside, Which to Buy appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

The Pacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF (CBOE:COWZ) is having a solid 2026, up 6.4% year to date and 14.81% over the past year through July 6. Yet a fund built expressly to own America’s biggest cash machines holds zero shares of Apple, arguably the most famous cash generator on the planet. That contradiction is baked into the methodology.

What COWZ Actually Owns

COWZ is issued by Pacer ETFs and tracks the Pacer US Cash Cows 100 Index, which ranks the Russell 1000 by trailing free cash flow yield and buys the top 100 names. The fund had $18.18 billion in net assets as of April 30, 2026, spread across 102 positions. The expense ratio was not disclosed.

The top holdings read like a checklist of mature, cash-generative businesses. Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) sat at the top at 2.67% of net assets, followed by ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) at 2.17%, CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) at 2.16%, and Ford Motor (NYSE:F) at 2.01%. Altria, Uber, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Pfizer, Verizon, and AT&T round out the upper ranks.

Why It’s Up

The one-year gain traces back to a handful of leaders across sectors. CVS surged 56.84% over the trailing year and is up 30.76% year to date as its Health Care Benefits segment turned a corner. Ford tacked on 22.82% over the past year. QUALCOMM added 17.39% and ConocoPhillips 14.22% in the same window. The heavy tilt toward energy, healthcare, telecom, and consumer staples has done the lifting while high-multiple growth names were absent from the roster.

The Apple Absence, Explained

Apple’s absence from a “cash cow” fund traces directly to methodology. Apple generated $98.77 billion in free cash flow in fiscal 2025, one of the largest figures ever produced by a single company. The catch is the denominator. Apple carried a market capitalization of roughly $4.59 trillion, a trailing P/E of 38, and a dividend yield of 0.34%. Divide that enormous cash flow by an even more enormous market value, and Apple’s free cash flow yield lands well below the level required to crack the top 100.

Compare that with a name COWZ does own. QUALCOMM produced $12.82 billion in free cash flow in fiscal 2025 against a market cap near $196.5 billion. Smaller absolute cash flow, dramatically higher yield relative to price. That is the screen doing its job.

The same logic sweeps out the rest of the Magnificent Seven. Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla are also absent from the portfolio, a systematic outcome of the yield-based screen rather than a stock-picker’s judgment call.

What the Exclusion Means for a Portfolio

For investors comparing COWZ with a broad market index, the trade-off is direct. Apple gained 15.22% year to date and 46.99% over the past year, both ahead of COWZ. Funds that hold Apple at index weights captured that. COWZ did not. In exchange, holders got heavier exposure to energy producers, healthcare cash generators, telecoms, and older-economy industrials, sectors that behave differently from mega-cap tech in a drawdown.

Concentration risk shifts as well. Without the mega-cap tech anchors, COWZ leans into cyclicals like ConocoPhillips (energy) and Ford (autos, dividend yield 4.49%). Those names typically move with commodity prices, credit conditions, and consumer demand, tracking cyclical rather than AI-driven forces.

The Takeaway

COWZ does exactly what it says on the tin: it ranks the Russell 1000 by free cash flow yield and buys the top 100. Because Apple trades at a growth-stock valuation, its cash yield is not high enough to qualify, no matter how many billions it prints. Investors who want a value-tilted, cash-flow-first slice of the U.S. large-cap market may find that appealing. Investors who want mega-cap tech exposure will need to look elsewhere.

The post Up 14.81% in a Year, COWZ Proves You Don’t Need Apple appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Ford’s (NYSE: F) sales of its two flagship EVs dropped to nearly zero in May. Originally, each was to sell hundreds of thousands a year.

Sales of the Mustang Mach-E dropped to 2,467, down 44% from the year before. That is 82 per day nationwide. Ford thought that using the Mustang brand would help jump-start EV sales. The Mustang was launched in 1964 and is still on sale today. It is powered by a gas engine. The Mach-E was launched in 2020.

The Ford F-150 Lightning was named for the best-selling vehicle in America. The full sized pick up market is the most successful vehicle niche in the US. Ford sold 1,046 Lightnings last month, down 45% from the year before. That figure was 45 Lightnings sold per day.

Ironically, Ford CEO Jim Farley test-drove Chinese EVs. His comment after his early rides was “There’s no real competition from Tesla, GM, or Ford with what we’ve seen from China. They are completely dominating the EV landscape globally.” Earlier, he said Chinese EVs could be an existential threat to Ford. The barrier to EVs in the US is high tariffs, which Ford hopes will stay high every day.

The Ford EV folly has started to move forward after a remarkably poor past. “The best predictor of future performance is past performance. And I’ve seen your past performance,” or so the saying goes.

For reasons that are impossible to explain, Ford’s most visible project for its sales future is its Universal EV Platform and Ford Universal EV Production System. It is to be the largest car-production revolution since the Henry Ford assembly line, introduced in 1913, Ford management said. The Ford investment in the new project is $5 billion.

At the time of the launch, Farley said, “We took a radical approach to a very hard challenge: Create affordable vehicles that delight customers in every way that matters – design, innovation, flexibility, space, driving pleasure, and cost of ownership – and do it with American workers.”

The first product of the project will be a midsize EV truck, which will be ready in 2027. Given the pace at which the EV segment is evolving, that is late. While Ford may have exited the EV segment, several EU car companies have stepped up EV plans, as has Ford’s crosstown rival GM (NYSE: GM). It is hard to say what Ford’s management is thinking.

It will need several EV models, to hopes it to be competitive.

The post Ford Finally Runs Out of EVs appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

He is 68, a mechanical engineer who retired a couple of years ago, started his Social Security check, and thought his commuting days were over. Then his old employer called. The company wants him back, not full time, just enough to help younger engineers spot failure modes that algorithms have not yet learned. The pay is real. So is his hesitation. He has heard that going back to work can shrink the Social Security benefit he already claimed.

His situation is common right now. Ford (NYSE:F) has been calling veteran “gray beard” engineers back to the shop floor after concluding that artificial intelligence could not replace decades of hands-on judgment, and similar quiet re-hirings are happening across manufacturing and the trades. With unemployment sitting at 4.3% and experienced talent in short supply, un-retirement offers from former employers are landing in inboxes that thought they were done. One retiree recently described the exact knot our engineer is feeling: he wanted the work, he wanted the money, but he feared his benefit would get clawed back the moment payroll started.

The Earnings Test Stops at FRA

Here is what should let him sleep tonight. The Social Security earnings test, which withholds part of your benefit when wages exceed a threshold, applies only before you reach full retirement age (FRA). Once you hit FRA, the test disappears. You can earn ten thousand dollars, a hundred thousand, or a million in W-2 wages, and Social Security will not reduce your monthly check by a single dollar.

Full retirement age depends on birth year. For anyone born in 1960 or later, FRA is 67. For people born in the late 1950s, it lands somewhere between 66 and 67. Our 68-year-old engineer is past it either way. The earnings test he is worried about simply does not apply.

The check keeps coming, at its full amount, no matter how many hours Ford puts on his timesheet.

What a Paycheck Does Change

A protected benefit still leaves room for other consequences. Three things move softly in the background when an older worker goes back on payroll.

1. More of the Social Security check can become taxable. Once combined income crosses certain thresholds, up to 85% of the benefit is pulled into ordinary taxable income. That 85% is the share that becomes taxable, not the tax rate itself. Wages are the fastest way to trip that line, so the engineer should expect a larger portion of his benefit to show up on his federal return.
2. Medicare premiums can rise two years later. The income-related monthly adjustment amount, known as IRMAA, looks back two years at modified adjusted gross income. A single filer with modified adjusted gross income above $109,000, or a joint filer above $218,000, starts paying surcharges on top of the standard Part B premium. A strong consulting year in 2026 can quietly raise his 2028 Medicare bill.
3. The benefit itself may inch up. Social Security recomputes benefits using the highest 35 years of indexed earnings. If a new year of wages replaces a lower-earning year in that top 35, the agency automatically refigures the benefit and bumps it up. For someone who had a thin year early in his career, a couple of solid years back at Ford can produce a small permanent raise on top of the annual cost-of-living adjustment, which came in at 2.8% for 2026.

What He Should Actually Weigh

The fear that drove his hesitation was the wrong one. The check is safe. The real questions are smaller: how much of the benefit will show up as taxable income next April, whether the paycheck pushes him into an IRMAA bracket that follows him into 2028, and whether the work itself is something he wants to do.

Going back to work after FRA is a tax planning exercise. A quick conversation with a tax preparer before the first paycheck hits is cheaper than a surprise in April or a Medicare letter two winters from now.

The post Ford Is Calling Its ‘Gray Beard’ Engineers Back to Work. At 68, He Feared the Paycheck Would Cut His Social Security. Past Full Retirement Age, It Doesn’t. appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

With the third quarter underway, most of the top firms we cover on Wall Street are releasing their top stock ideas for the next three months. BofA Securities, which we have covered for years, always has 10 new top picks at the start of every quarter. The 10 stocks, nine of which are Buy-rated, and one is Underperform-rated and ostensibly a short sale idea, are out, and we decided to screen the list for the top growth and dividend ideas. With the first full trading week of the third quarter upon us, many investors are seeking safer ideas amid a sustained market rally, even as major indices remain near all-time highs. We have identified four top Bank of America Q3 2026 ideas with significant upside potential and, in some cases, substantial, reliable dividends.

The BofA team remains positive on the stock market and the broader backdrop, as noted in the report:

BofA’s RIC Outlook points to a largely bullish backdrop for the U.S. economy and global equities, with indicators confirming that the “new industrial cycle” remains intact and that earnings momentum is strengthening. The Global Earnings Revision Ratio has improved to a six‑month high, with particularly strong readings in the U.S. and broad-based upgrades across regions, while the Global Wave of macro data is rising in tandem with the earnings cycle—historically a supportive signal for equity returns. Although valuations and positioning suggest markets may be somewhat overheated in the near term, we think any summer pullback could be a potential buying opportunity, especially in real assets, credit, and value-oriented areas.

Why do we cover BofA Securities’ top quarterly ideas?

BofA Securities is one of the top firms on Wall Street, and we have covered the company’s curated stock lists for years. These are their absolute best ideas across several categories, including the Endeavor List, covering small-cap stocks; the Value 10 list, featuring the top analysts’ best value ideas; and the Growth 10 List, a quantitatively generated portfolio of 10 stocks with high expected earnings growth.

Ford

This American automotive corporation was founded in 1903 by Henry Ford and 11 associate investors. This legacy carmaker pays shareholders a robust 4.3% dividend yield. Ford (NYSE: F) develops, delivers, and services a range of Ford trucks, commercial cars and vans, sport utility vehicles, and Lincoln luxury vehicles worldwide. The BofA team said this about the stock:

We expect continued upward estimate revisions for Ford given: 1) Ford’s primary North America market is better positioned compared to Europe/China given a protectionist trade agenda (no Chinese EV disruption), a favorable regulatory environment given the roll off of emission standards programs that allows Ford to produce its highest margin accretive ICE vehicles, and resilient demand despite higher gas prices, 2) mix benefit from shift to higher margin trims at F Blue, including off-road & V8 trims, 3) Novelis recovery progressing better than expected, 4) outsized growth in F’s high margin software & services business, 5) support from Ford’s new battery energy storage business & the scaling of its new EV platform with the launch of an affordable pickup next year.

It operates through five segments:

• Ford Blue
• Ford Model e
• Ford Pro
• Ford Next
• Ford Credit

The company sells Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories through distributors, dealers, and dealerships to commercial fleet customers, daily rental car companies, and governments. It also engages in vehicle-related financing and leasing activities through automotive dealers.

In addition, the company provides retail installment sale contracts for:

• New and used vehicles
• Directly finances leases for new cars to retail and commercial customers, including leasing companies, government entities, daily rental companies, and fleet customers

Furthermore, it offers wholesale loans to dealers to finance the purchase of vehicle inventory, as well as loans to fund working capital, enhance dealership facilities, purchase dealership real estate, and support other dealer vehicle programs.

The Bank of America price target is $20.

IBM

International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM), nicknamed Big Blue, is an American multinational technology company. The legacy blue-chip tech giant offers conservative investors a safer way to play the sector with a 2.35% dividend, and with the shares flat this year, some big upside is possible. IBM provides integrated solutions and services worldwide. BofA noted this about the legacy tech giant when discussing the push to quantum computing:

Quantum should become a more visible part of the IBM story as interest increases (given recent pure-play Quantum IPOs). IBM reiterated in F1Q that it remains on track to deliver its first large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029 and noted that partners could achieve the first examples of quantum advantage this year using IBM hardware. More recently, IBM and the U.S. Department of Commerce announced an LOI to create Anderon, a standalone U.S. quantum chip foundry supported by a proposed $1bn CHIPS award and a $1bn IBM cash contribution, followed by IBM announcing plans to invest more than $10bn in quantum over the next five years. We view these announcements as material for IBM’s quantum leadership to receive greater attention and as a catalyst for IBM’s quantum business to provide optionality for the stock.

The company operates through four segments. The Software segment offers a hybrid cloud and AI platform that allows clients to realize their digital and AI transformations across the applications, data, and environments they operate. IBM has partnered with Amazon Web Services (AWS) to allow users to access Watsonx AI features and its data platform. IBM also partnered with Palo Alto Networks, allowing the cybersecurity company to acquire IBM’s QRadar Software as a Service (SaaS) assets.

The Consulting segment focuses on integrating skills across strategy, experience, technology, and operations by domain and industry, while the Infrastructure segment provides on-premises and cloud-based server and storage solutions, as well as life-cycle services, for hybrid cloud infrastructure deployments. And the Financing segment offers client and commercial financing that facilitates IBM clients’ acquisition of hardware, software, and services.

The company has a strategic partnership with various companies, including:

• Hyperscalers
• Service providers
• Global system integrators
• Software and hardware vendors, including Adobe, Amazon Web Services, Microsoft, Oracle, Salesforce, Samsung Electronics, SAP, and others

BofA Securities has set a $315 target price.

Visa

The credit card giant was recently removed from Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio, but the BofA team remains positive on the shares. Visa (NYSE: V) is a global payments technology company that pays a small 0.7% dividend. It facilitates global commerce and money movement across more than 200 countries and territories among consumers, merchants, financial institutions, and government entities through technology.

The BofA team had these thoughts on the shares:

Visa is our top way to own the secular shift from cash to electronic payments: a durable, double-digit revenue/teens-EPS compounder with a wide debit and credit moat, a fast-growing value-added services engine (~30% of net revenue), and $33B of buyback firepower. It trades 3x below its five-year average forward PE, continuing to discount regulatory and disintermediation overhangs that we view as overstated. Visa remains a high-quality franchise at a defensive multiple, poised to be a catalyst-rich window.

Its Payment Services segment provides transaction processing services (primarily authorization, clearing, and settlement) to its financial institution and merchant clients through VisaNet, its proprietary advanced transaction processing network.

The company offers a range of Visa-branded payment products that its clients, including nearly 14,500 financial institutions, use to develop and offer payment solutions or services, including credit, debit, prepaid, and cash access programs for individual, business, and government account holders. It also provides value-added services to its clients, including issuing solutions, acceptance solutions, risk and identity solutions, open banking solutions, and advisory services.

The BofA Securities target price is $410.

Walmart

This company, founded in 1945, is the world’s largest retailer, with over 10,000 stores offering groceries, health products, and general merchandise. Walmart (NYSE: WMT) also has a strong e-commerce platform and a 0.88% dividend. BofA said this about the technology-powered omnichannel retailer:

We remain convinced that the current backdrop, with strength from the upper-income consumer and some caution from the value-seeking consumer, is conducive to Walmart accelerating share gains by leading with price and speed. WMT has significant competitive advantages to invest and gain share due to 1) its ability to tap into high-growth, margin-rich businesses like advertising and membership to help fund pricing investments, and 2) having best-in-class delivery speeds. If middle- and lower-income consumers hold up better than expected, especially as gas prices start to move lower, this would likely strengthen sales trends across Walmart US and Sam’s Club. At 36x P/E (F28), we think the stock could start to rerate higher as the market gets confidence that WMT can return to a beat/raise cycle starting next quarter.

Walmart operates retail and wholesale stores and clubs, as well as e-commerce websites and mobile applications, throughout the United States, Africa, Canada, Central America, Chile, China, India, and Mexico. It operates in three reportable segments.

The Walmart U.S. segment includes the company’s mass merchandising concept in the U.S., as well as eCommerce, which provides omni-channel initiatives and other specific business offerings such as advertising services.

The Walmart International segment consists of the company’s operations outside of the U.S., as well as eCommerce and omni-channel initiatives.

The Sam’s Club U.S. segment includes the warehouse membership clubs in the U.S., as well as samsclub.com and omni-channel initiatives.

Bank of America has a $140 target price.

The post 4 of Bank of America’s Top US Q3 Picks Pay Dividends With Double-Digit Upside Potential appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Toyota (NYSE:TM) and Ford (NYSE:F) closed very different earnings cycles. Toyota wrapped fiscal 2026 with $323.62 billion in revenue and a global hybrid engine humming across five brands. Ford posted a $43.25 billion Q1 and raised its 2026 outlook, yet the story underneath is a U.S. truck franchise carrying an EV division still bleeding cash.

Hybrid Cash Machine Meets a Truck-Powered Turnaround

Toyota’s electrified mix hit 48.1% of retail sales, with BEV volumes up 68.4% to 243 thousand units. That mix, plus a Financial Services segment that grew operating income 24.6% to $5.44 billion, helped absorb an $8.81 billion U.S. tariff hit. Operating cash flow landed at $34.94 billion.

Ford’s quarter leans on Blue and Pro. Ford Blue revenue rose 14% to $23.9 billion, powered by F-Series, Bronco, and Expedition. Ford Pro delivered $1.69 billion EBIT with paid software subs up 30% YoY to 879,000. Model e lost $777 million, and a $1.30 billion IEEPA tariff benefit flattered results.

Global Insulation vs. a Narrower U.S. Bet

Toyota earns roughly $132.70 billion in North America but balances that with $50.71 billion in Japan, $50.41 billion in Asia, and $40.84 billion in Europe. Ford is heavily U.S.-anchored, amplifying commodity and tariff swings. Jim Farley framed it bluntly: “We built the foundation for a more modern, resilient Ford, improving cost and quality and building our world-class team.” Model e guidance calls for a $4.0 billion to $4.5 billion loss this year.

Valuation frames the divergence. Toyota trades at a 9 trailing P/E with a 3.65% dividend yield and a 0.306 beta. Ford’s $0.15 quarterly payout is generous, but Q1 free cash flow was negative $1.87 billion.

The Next Test Is Who Compounds Through Tariffs

Toyota guided FY2027 operating income down 20.3% to JPY 3.0 trillion, absorbing more tariff pain and Middle East drag. Ford raised 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance to $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion. Watch whether Toyota’s BEV ramp to 598 thousand units lands without eroding hybrid margins, and whether Ford’s Universal EV platform narrows Model e losses before commodity headwinds hit their $2 billion peak.

Why I Lean Toyota for Cash Flow and Sleep-at-Night Ownership

Toyota is the more resilient business. The hybrid franchise generates cash Ford’s EV unit still consumes, and the global footprint softens shocks hitting Ford’s Michigan-heavy P&L directly. Ford’s Blue and Pro segments offer real optionality with raised guidance. Toyota offers durable free cash flow, a 0.823 price-to-book, and a dividend backed by $80.83 billion in cash. The setup weakens only if Model e losses shrink faster than Toyota’s tariff drag deepens.

The post Ford Vs. Toyota: Buy Toyota to Secure Dominant Global Cash Flow and Hybrid Supremacy appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Shares of Ford (NYSE:F) are down 2% to $13 in Thursday midday trading, putting the stock on track for a fourth straight down day. The catalyst is a soft Q2 U.S. sales report, and the slide has investors asking whether the money would be better parked in a Detroit rival.

Both General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) shares are trading roughly flat today, at $75 and $6, respectively. Yet, the year-to-date scoreboard tells a more surprising story than the last four sessions suggest.

Q2 U.S. Sales Miss Fuels the Selloff

Ford reported that U.S. sales fell 10% in Q2 2026 to 549,200 vehicles, with first-half sales down 10% to just over 1 million. EV volumes were the sore spot, with Q2 EV sales dropping 41% as the Mustang Mach-E slipped and the discontinued F-150 Lightning fell sharply.

The headline truck number also disappointed. F-Series sales fell 11% to 197,900, though Ford attributes the drop to a retiming of commercial production linked to last year’s aluminum supply shortages rather than soft demand. Still, the F-Series remained the best-selling U.S. truck.

Ford’s report had bright spots. The Bronco set a Q2 record, up 16% to 45,739 units; the Maverick Hybrid also set a Q2 record, up 19% to 29,457; Explorer deliveries increased; and Ford’s estimated June retail market share climbed to 12%. Ford is also phasing out the Escape and Lincoln Corsair, which weigh on near-term volume.

How GM and Stellantis Stack Up

General Motors posted a smaller Q2 U.S. sales decline of 4% and remained the top-selling U.S. automaker on the strength of trucks and SUVs. The automaker’s EV volumes also fell, a common theme after the federal EV tax credit expired and demand cooled across the industry.

On the fundamentals, GM stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 6x with an analyst target price of $95, versus Ford stock’s forward P/E ratio of 8x and $15 target. Stellantis stock, priced for distress, trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7x and a price-to-book ratio of 0.24x.

The Surprising Year-to-Date Scoreboard

Here’s the twist. Despite the four-day slide, Ford stock is up 2% year to date (YTD), making it the best performer of the three. GM stock is down 8% YTD, and Stellantis stock is down 47% YTD. So, the answer to “is it time to switch?” is nuanced.

General Motors did have the smaller Q2 sales decline and a bigger buyback footprint, but its shares have leaked lower all year. Stellantis remains the deep-value option, with a wave of overhangs that have gutted its equity value in six months. Ford has held up best on the stock, even though its Q2 sales print looks worse than GM’s.

Should You Sell Ford Stock Now?

The bull case for Ford is that the company’s hybrid and off-road nameplates (Bronco, Maverick) are winning, retail share is expanding, and CEO Jim Farley has touted an upcoming sub-$30,000 electric truck for next year to reset the EV cost curve. Ford stock also offers a dividend yield that exceeds 4%, which can cushion share-price drawdowns somewhat.

The bear case is that EV demand is softening industry-wide after the federal tax credit expired, discontinued models are removing volume, and Ford’s Model e segment continues to bleed cash. These are volatile, cyclical stocks, and investors may want to keep their position sizes modest across the group.

There’s no requirement to panic-sell your Ford shares if you’re vigilant and have a long-term investment plan. Looking ahead, the next test is whether Ford stock can hold the $13 area into Thursday’s close and whether Q2 2026 earnings, due later this month, confirm the guidance raise. Market watchers can also monitor GM’s July sales cadence and any Stellantis update on its recovery timeline.

The post Ford Is Now Down 4 Days in a Row. Is It Time to Switch to General Motors or Stellantis? appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Ford (NYSE: F) both reported Q1 2026 results in late April, and the earnings reports revealed two very different Detroit strategies. GM leaned on unified Ultium battery scale, a richer sales mix, and heavy share retirement. Ford leaned on hybrids, F-Series demand, and a fast-growing Ford Pro software business while still absorbing steep EV losses.

Ultium Scale Lifts GM. Model e Still Bleeds at Ford.

GM delivered adjusted EPS of $3.70 against a $2.6393 estimate, its fourth consecutive beat. EBIT-adjusted reached $4.25 billion, up 21.9% YoY, with GMNA margin expanding to 10.1%. A $1.077 billion charge to realign Ultium capacity stung GAAP results, yet it signals discipline rather than retreat. Chevrolet, GMC, Buick, and Cadillac all pull from the same battery architecture, which is the structural cost lever the bulls keep pointing to.

Ford’s headline was flashier and messier. Adjusted EBIT jumped $2.5 billion YoY to $3.49 billion, but a $1.3 billion IEEPA tariff benefit did much of the heavy lifting. Ford Blue produced $1.94 billion in EBIT on F-Series, Bronco, and Explorer strength, and Ford Pro paid software subscriptions grew 30% to 879,000. Model e still lost $777 million in the quarter, with a full-year loss guide of $4.0 to $4.5 billion.

Unified Platform vs. Segmented Complexity

Ford’s structurally divided corporate segments create engineering redundancies and higher warranty costs, while GM’s unified platform architecture drives down manufacturing costs across its next-generation fleet. That framing shows up in the capital returns too.

GM’s FY2026 EPS-adjusted guide climbed to $11.50 to $13.50. Ford lifted adjusted EBIT to $8.5 to $10.5 billion, but commodity headwinds of roughly $2 billion, led by aluminum, keep the picture cloudy.

The Next Test Is China and Model e

I will be watching whether GM can arrest China share erosion after worldwide sales slipped to 1.295 million units from 1.449 million. You should keep an eye on Ford’s Universal EV platform ramp and Ford Energy build-out, which are absorbing roughly $1 billion in incremental Model e investment this year.

Why I Lean Toward GM Right Now

Given the quarter, I lean toward GM. Mary Barra’s playbook of pairing a unified battery platform with a 926 million share count and a raised guide feels more durable than Ford’s tariff-aided EBIT jump. For turnaround-focused investors, Ford Pro’s 879,000 paid subscriptions and a 4.28% yield remain part of the bull case. I would rethink my view if GM’s automotive operating cash flow stays weak or China losses accelerate. For now, the buyback math and Ultium leverage tilt the setup toward GM.

The post GM Vs. Ford: GM’s Unified Battery Scale and Aggressive Share Buybacks Make It The Better Buy appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Ford (NYSE: F) ranked No. 1 among “Mainstream Brands” in the new J.D. Power Initial Quality Study. It was the first time it had occupied that spot since 2010. Much of that positive news was wiped out by a recall of more than 740,000 vehicles, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. The notice said, “The transmission park pawl may engage while the vehicle is in motion, resulting in park system damage.”

The vehicles affected were some 2018-2021 model-year Navigators, Explorers, and Expeditions, the 2020-2021 Explorer, the Lincoln Aviator, and the 2021 F-150. The news is the continuation of a trend. Ford has recalled 11.2 million vehicles this year. Last year, Ford set an all-time record for recalls, with 153, and covered more than 13 million vehicles.

Ford management has repeatedly promised to reduce the number of recalls. The J.D. Power results show that, in the minds of those surveyed, the brand has taken a step forward. However, the actual recall data paint a very different picture, which can be called “reality.”

Recalls are not just a customer-facing problem. Last year, they cost Ford hundreds of millions of dollars in warranty costs.

For the consumer, which Ford is the real Ford? It likely depends on experience. Someone who owns a recalled Ford or has seen recalls in the media might be concerned about buying a Ford product. Many current owners are obviously happy, based on J.D. Power.

The bottom line, as they call it, is that recalling millions of cars has to leave an impression on the wider car-buying public. That means Ford’s climb out of the recall pit is likely to cause it deep trouble.

The post Ford Reputation Deeply Damaged by 740,000 Recall appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

There is growing expert consensus that car sales in the US will start to decline and may drop sharply. Bain and Company has done some of the best work on this. The consulting firm said US new-car sales could drop to 2 million by 2040, according to CNBC. There are about 16 million a year today.

Cars, SUVs, and light pickups are too expensive. Car Edge reports that the average price of a new vehicle has hit over $50,000. Cox Automotive puts the figure at $51,440 based on MSRP. While it depends on which company’s data is chosen, it is up 4% from last year.

The average monthly payment for a new car is $770. Many loans are for 72 months. This means a car can be worth less than the loan on it after five or six years. The math itself will erode the new car industry.

To some extent, if not largely, due to prices, the average time a car is on the road in the US is 12 years. It is easy to see the challenge for the car companies.

The Ford (NYSE: F) F-Series pickup has been the best-selling vehicle in the US for decades. Its base price is $38,780. With a modest number of features added, the price rises to $45,000.

There is another factor worth considering. Inflation is moving up faster than wages. This means that, for the most part, Americans’ purchasing power is declining.

The average lifetime of an F-150 is 15 to 20 years. That means the truck can run for well over 200,000 miles.

Bain’s other argument is that as immigration drops, the US population growth will be flat. Additionally, only half of US 16-year-olds have a driver’s license. That is down from 70% in 1966 to 1980.

Finally, The Wall Street Journal reports that about one million Americans will drop out of the car market soon. The newspaper quoted Erik Severinson, Volvo’s chief commercial officer. Speaking of car prices, he said, “It’s a proof point of something more fundamental which is wrong in the general economy—that people are not able to buy new cars.”

The price of the F-150 and the headwinds against the whole industry mean that it, and many other vehicles, have started to price their way out of the market.

The post Ford F-150 Is Too Expensive appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

The JD Power 2026 U.S. Initial Quality Study was just released. Deeply troubled, Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) ranks last among all brands, a place usually occupied by Chrysler and Dodge. The rankings are based on overall new-vehicle quality, as measured by the total number of problems per 100 vehicles. The study covers answers about the first 90 days of ownership. The research is based on nine categories: climate, driving assistance, driving experience, exterior, features/controls/displays, infotainment, interior, powertrain, and seats. Vehicle repair services were also taken into account.

The average in the study was 175 per 100 vehicles. Rivian’s figure was 246, just below Chrysler’s 229. The two fell into the category of those that “did not meet award criteria.” The figures were stunning nevertheless. Rivian has won several awards for its models. This includes “Rivian R1T: Edmunds Top-Rated Electric Truck 2026.”

The survey news comes just as Rivian launches its R2 crossover. It will eventually have models priced at $44,990. This will not be available until next year. The version currently available is the Performance version, with a base price of $57,990. Rivian has been criticized for having a model lineup that is too expensive. The prices of its R1S and R1T can top $100,000.

Among the most serious problems Rivian has is whether the company is viable. Its stock is down 20% this year and 90% since late 2021; In Q1, Rivian produced 10,236 vehicles and delivered 10,365 vehicles.

Revenue for the first quarter was $1.38 billion. It lost $416 million. It is hard to imagine how many vehicles Rivian would need to sell to be profitable,

Leaving quality aside (which is unrealistic). Rivan is up against Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), which remains the industry juggernaut. What was also frightening for Rivian was that Ford (NYSE: F) had an EV pickup that carried its most storied name–the F-150 Lightning. It got so little sales traction that Ford discontinued it.

Rivian appears to have a quality problem, adding to a long list of challenges.

The post Rivian Posts Worst Scores On Quality Study (Maybe) appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Polestar will be blocked from selling EVs in the US. It doesn’t matter. Polestar sales were close to zero so far this year. To sell its 2027 models, Polestar needed permission under the Connected Vehicles Rule. The regulation essentially prohibits the import and sale of cars with connected-vehicle technology owned or controlled by companies in China. Virtually every other vehicle made by a China-based company is already in a similar position from a sales standpoint. At the head of this list is BYD, the world’s largest EV maker. Beyond connected-vehicle regulations, the US imposes high tariffs on Chinese EV trucks and cars.

Polestar never gained traction in the US, despite having several dealers. It had the money to at least make a significant effort to sell its cars in America. It is majority owned by the Chinese car giant Geely Holding.

Who wins based on the ban? At first glance, GM (NYSE: GM) and Ford (NYSE: F). Each was worried Chinese EVs would damage their sales. However, each has exited the EV market. That means the threat would be to their gas-powered car sales. Even if Chinese EVs are inexpensive and have impressive features, they are not what will get the huge majority of Americans to turn their backs on fossil-fueled engines (Americans love them too much). GM and Ford took write-offs totaling almost $30 billion as they exited the sector. They understood EV demand was weak, no matter who made or sold them.

The one company that benefits most is Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA). The US, its home market, remains its most important market by sales. Its sales are healthy in China, and are coming back in the EU. However, it could barely survive an onslaught of well-built EVs in the US, including cars priced below $25,000, if tariffs were not in place.

Tesla’s sales were hurt in the US for at least one reason, and probably two. The first is that the $7,500 federal tax credit on EVs ended on September 30. EVs across the US suffered in general. Additionally, Tesla CEO Elon Musk was involved in President Donald Trump’s early restructuring of the US government. So demand may have been hurt by that as well.

It is hard to imagine that, even as Tesla sales in the US appear to have rebounded recently, it could well withstand an invasion of Chinese EVs.

Ford has said that a US market open to Chinese EVs would do it serious harm. Perhaps. But Tesla has the most to lose.

The post Great News For Tesla, Polestar Banned From The US appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Ford (NYSE: F) recalls this year have topped 1.2 million vehicles. While its poor 2006 track record is not nearly as bad as last year’s, the company’s quality promise has fallen apart again. And, while moves into battery technology have lifted the stock, there is reason for investors to be worried. Ford can’t get its core business right, even after decades as one of the world’s largest car companies.

One of the worst recalls, from the standpoint of how poorly Ford manages repairs for its broken cars, concerns 255,404 Ford Focus models from the 2012-2018 model years. TFLcar reports “Ford Recalls More Than 250,000 Focus Models Because the First Fix Didn’t Solve the Issue.”

Ford also recalled over 548,000 Expedition SUVs because of chrome trim on the center console. It can bubble and peel. This can cause hazardous sharp edges, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

Ford’s move into what it calls “Ford Energy,” which supplies large-scale battery storage systems for data centers and the electric grid, is viewed as nothing short of genius. And the market rewarded Ford’s diversification, but only briefly. Ford’s stock is up a little less than the S&P 500

Ford’s very long-term prospects remain grim, given how the stock has traded over the last five years. It is down 9% over that period. The S&P is 72% higher in the same period. GM is up 30%.

It is impossible not to argue that almost every company should be judged by how well it does what it is supposed to do. That is, whether it can run its core business (s), Ford’s quality improvement promises are legion, as are the failures of these promises

Why is quality such a difficult problem for Ford to fix? All such problems are the responsibility of senior management. It has undermined one of the world’s best-known brands.

The post Ford Recalls Continue to Cripple Brand appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..