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<title>Abacus Data</title>
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<title>Nineteen months on, the Buy Canadian shopper has not gone home</title>
<link>https://abacusdata.ca/nineteen-months-on-the-buy-canadian-shopper-has-not-gone-home/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Coletto]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Thu, 01 Oct 2026 05:32:00 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Consumer Behaviour]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[buy canadian]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[consumer behaviour]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://abacusdata.ca/?p=94236</guid>
<description><![CDATA[<p>The share of Canadians who intend to avoid American products is unchanged since the week the first tariffs landed, and the share who have acted on that intent has risen on every measure we track. But price still decides at the shelf, and most Canadians still cannot tell which brands are Canadian. When the first […]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/nineteen-months-on-the-buy-canadian-shopper-has-not-gone-home/">Nineteen months on, the Buy Canadian shopper has not gone home</a> appeared first on <a href="https://abacusdata.ca">Abacus Data</a>.</p>
]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><em>The share of Canadians who intend to avoid American products is unchanged since the week the first tariffs landed, and the share who have acted on that intent has risen on every measure we track. But price still decides at the shelf, and most Canadians still cannot tell which brands are Canadian.</em></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">When the first tariffs hit in February 2025, Canadians told us they would answer with their wallets. Most consumer reactions of that kind fade within a season. This one has not. Nineteen months later, 77% of Canadians say they will avoid American products entirely or buy as few as they can, statistically identical to the 78% who said so in the first week of the trade war. </p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">More striking, the share who report have actually done something about it has risen on all seven behaviours we measure, from cancelling a trip south to switching which brands go in the cart. What has not changed is the set of beliefs underneath: six in ten still assume Canadian-made means paying more, and the public is no better at identifying Canadian brands than it was when the boycott began.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The intent to avoid American products has not moved</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In February 2025, 41% of Canadians said they would do everything they could to avoid anything made in the United States or by American companies, and another 37% said they would try to buy as few American goods as possible. In September 2026 the figures are 37% and 40%. The hard core has softened by 4 points, and those people appear to have moved to the softer position rather than out of the boycott, because the combined share is 78% then and 77% now.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The share who say the tariffs will not change their purchasing much has edged up from 12% to 14%, and fewer are undecided (10% then, 8% now). Nineteen months in, the public has sorted itself, and the sorting favours avoidance by a wide margin.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" width="1024" height="353" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F01_intent_then_now-1024x353.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94237" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F01_intent_then_now-1024x353.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F01_intent_then_now-300x104.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F01_intent_then_now-768x265.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F01_intent_then_now-2048x707.png 2048w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F01_intent_then_now-1536x530.png 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Consideration has turned into action on every measure</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The February survey caught Canadians in the act of deciding. Just over half (53%) had already bought more Canadian products, and 37% more were considering it. By September, 61% had done it. The pattern repeats on every item. The share who had tried not to buy American products rose from 38% to 51%. The share who had cancelled a trip to the United States rose from 32% to 52% of those for whom a trip was on the table, the largest change we recorded.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The smaller behaviours moved too: avoiding American gas stations (33% to 39%), avoiding American retailers such as Walmart (20% to 26%), reducing purchases on Amazon (21% to 26%) and cancelling American streaming services (14% to 20%). In each case the pool of people still “considering” shrank as the “done” column grew. The combined share who had done or considered each behaviour is roughly where it was in February; what changed is the conversion rate. That is the difference between a mood and a habit.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" width="1024" height="800" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F02_actions_then_now-1024x800.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94239" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F02_actions_then_now-1024x800.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F02_actions_then_now-300x235.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F02_actions_then_now-768x600.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F02_actions_then_now-2048x1601.png 2048w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F02_actions_then_now-1536x1201.png 1536w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The hard core is older, and it softened everywhere except among the young</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The people most committed to avoiding American products have always been older. In February 2025, 54% of Canadians 60 and over chose the strongest option, against 31% of those under 30. In September 2026 the figures are 48% and 32%. Every group over 30 softened by four to six points: 34% to 30% among those 30 to 44, and 39% to 33% among those 45 to 59. The only group that did not fade is the under-30s, who were never absolutists in the first place. They live in the “try” column, and they are still there.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" width="1024" height="562" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F03_absolutists_by_age-1-1024x562.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94240" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F03_absolutists_by_age-1-1024x562.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F03_absolutists_by_age-1-300x165.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F03_absolutists_by_age-1-766x421.png 766w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F03_absolutists_by_age-1-1536x844.png 1536w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F03_absolutists_by_age-1-2048x1125.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Made in Canada still means paying more, in the public’s mind</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The behaviour changed. The beliefs underneath it did not. In February 2025, 60% of Canadians thought it was definitely or probably true that products made in Canada usually cost more than similar American products. In September 2026, 61% think so. About seven in ten (71% then, 72% now) recognize that many American-made food and household goods contain Canadian ingredients or parts. And fewer than half believe that most of the packaged food in Canadian grocery stores is made in Canada, though that share has risen from 43% to 48%.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Put those together and you have a public that has spent nineteen months trying to buy Canadian while still assuming it is the expensive option and still unsure which products qualify.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="483" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F04_beliefs_then_now-1024x483.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94241" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F04_beliefs_then_now-1024x483.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F04_beliefs_then_now-300x142.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F04_beliefs_then_now-767x362.png 767w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F04_beliefs_then_now-1536x725.png 1536w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F04_beliefs_then_now-2048x966.png 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Canadians still cannot tell which brands are Canadian</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We asked about four companies in both waves. Molson is read as Canadian by 71% in February 2025 and 73% now. Boston Pizza is read as Canadian by fewer than half (43% then, 47% now), with roughly four in ten calling it American in both waves. Costco is seen as American by 71% then and 75% now. Nestlé, which is Swiss, splits three ways: about a quarter say Canadian, four in ten say American and the rest say neither or are not sure, in both waves.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">None of these moved by more than four points. Nineteen months of maple leaves on shelf tags has not taught the public much about who owns what. Origin does not get absorbed; it has to be told, on the pack and at the shelf, every time.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="490" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F05_brand_origin-1024x490.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94242" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F05_brand_origin-1024x490.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F05_brand_origin-300x144.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F05_brand_origin-766x367.png 766w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F05_brand_origin-1536x736.png 1536w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F05_brand_origin-2048x981.png 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>What Canadians want from grocers is exactly what they wanted in February 2025</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Asked what Canadian grocery retailers should do if the United States imposes tariffs, nine in ten want stores to clearly indicate which products are made in Canada (91% then, 89% now). Nearly as many want more alternatives from Canadian or non-U.S. suppliers (88% and 87%). And seven in ten still want as many American-made products as possible taken off the shelves (71% and 70%). None of these has moved by more than two points. The mandate to the shelf is intact.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2130" height="1005" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F06_retailer_asks.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94243" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F06_retailer_asks.png 2130w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/F06_retailer_asks-2048x966.png 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 2130px) 100vw, 2130px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The Upshot</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The boycott hardened into a habit.</strong> Avoid-American intent is unchanged at 77%, and every behaviour we track rose. Brands and retailers planning for a return to 2024 shopping patterns should plan for something else.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Origin is a reassurance cue, not a pricing strategy.</strong> Canadians want to buy Canadian, and our July 2026 research found only one in five will do so when it costs noticeably more. Six in ten still assume Canadian-made means paying more. The flag earns consideration; the price still has to compete.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Say it every time.</strong> With brand origin still a guessing game and 89% asking for clear labelling, the brands and banners that make origin obvious will keep collecting the benefit of a preference the public has now held for nineteen months.\</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Methodology</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In February 2025, the week the first U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods took effect, Abacus Data surveyed 3,000 Canadian adults (February 5 to 11, 2025) about how the tariffs would change what they buy. In September 2026 we asked the same questions again of 1,479 Canadian adults from September 4 to 9, 2026. </p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Both surveys were conducted online with panelists from a blend of partner panels and weighted to census data. For the behaviour battery, respondents who said an item did not apply to them are excluded from both waves; the September shares were rebased by Abacus Data from published figures.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The surveys were paid for by Abacus Data Inc. </p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>About Abacus Data</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We are <strong>Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm</strong>. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-93927" style="aspect-ratio:1.7777777777777777;width:1024px;height:auto" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-1536x864.png 1536w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape.png 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">With offices in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto, and now in Winnipeg following <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/probe-acquisitions/">our acquisition of Probe Research</a>, we can serve clients across the country.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Our record speaks for itself:</strong> we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><a href="mailto:%20yvonne@stagesite.abacusdata.ca">Contact us</a> with any questions.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Find out more about how we can help your organization by <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/SPARK-ABACUS-SELL_SHEET-2018-EN3.pdf">downloading</a> our corporate profile and service offering.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
<p>The post <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/nineteen-months-on-the-buy-canadian-shopper-has-not-gone-home/">Nineteen months on, the Buy Canadian shopper has not gone home</a> appeared first on <a href="https://abacusdata.ca">Abacus Data</a>.</p>
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<item>
<title>Ihor Korbabicz Joins the Abacus Data Ownership Team</title>
<link>https://abacusdata.ca/ihor-korbabicz-joins-the-abacus-data-ownership-team/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Coletto]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Mon, 28 Sep 2026 09:58:00 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Abacus Data]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[team announcement]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://abacusdata.ca/?p=94230</guid>
<description><![CDATA[<p>When I founded Abacus Data in 2010, I hoped to build a research firm that would matter: to our clients, to the public conversation, and to the people who work here. Today, I get to share a milestone that reflects all three. Ihor Korbabicz, our President, is now a shareholder and co-owner of Abacus Data. […]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/ihor-korbabicz-joins-the-abacus-data-ownership-team/">Ihor Korbabicz Joins the Abacus Data Ownership Team</a> appeared first on <a href="https://abacusdata.ca">Abacus Data</a>.</p>
]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">When I founded Abacus Data in 2010, I hoped to build a research firm that would matter: to our clients, to the public conversation, and to the people who work here. Today, I get to share a milestone that reflects all three.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><a href="https://abacusdata.ca/team/ihor-korbabicz/" data-type="team-member" data-id="54">Ihor Korbabicz</a>, our President, is now a shareholder and co-owner of Abacus Data.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="800" height="800" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/1767803203428-1.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-94231" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/1767803203428-1.jpeg 800w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/1767803203428-1-150x150.jpeg 150w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/1767803203428-1-300x300.jpeg 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/1767803203428-1-768x768.jpeg 768w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Ihor joined Abacus in May 2017. In the nine years since, he has become a critical member of our executive team and, frankly, indispensable to me. As President, he manages the day-to-day operations of the business, serves several of our most important clients, and works alongside me to execute on our strategic priorities. Anyone who has worked with Ihor knows what he brings: rigour, judgment, a dry sense of humour, calm under pressure, and a genuine care for the people around him. Our clients trust him. Our team trusts him and I trust him completely.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This isn’t a symbolic gesture. It’s a recognition that the growth we’ve experienced, and the growth still ahead of us, is something Ihor helped build and will help lead.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And that growth story is worth telling.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Abacus Data has grown revenue by 10 to 12% a year, with revenue reaching $6 million in 2026. We’re now a team of 25, with offices in Ottawa, Toronto, Halifax, and now Winnipeg following the acquisition of Probe Research last month. We have team members across the country in several other communities.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We are one of Canada’s most consistently accurate national pollsters, and we’re proud to work with some of the most consequential organizations in the country and beyond: Google, Airbnb, Anthropic, Wealthsimple, Mattamy Homes, the Canadian Real Estate Association, CUPE, the Canadian Medical Association, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, and federal and provincial governments, among many others.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">None of that happens without a strong leadership team. And it certainly doesn’t happen without Ihor.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Bringing him in as a shareholder is part of a deliberate effort to broaden ownership at Abacus, to make sure the people driving this firm forward share in what we’re building together. I believe the best companies are owned, at least in part, by the people who make them great and have an ownership mindset. This is us putting that belief into practice.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">To our clients: this change means more of what you already count on from us. Continuity, stability, and a leadership team that is personally invested, in every sense, in your success.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">To our team: Ihor’s ownership stake is a signal of where we’re headed. We’re building a firm designed to last, led by people committed to it for the long run.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And to Ihor: thank you. For nine years of partnership, for the standard you set every day, and for believing in what Abacus Data can be. I’m proud to call you a co-owner.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The best is ahead of us.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">David Coletto Founder, Chair & CEO Abacus Data</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="568" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/World-Asks-Us-1024x568.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94068" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/World-Asks-Us-1024x568.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/World-Asks-Us-300x166.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/World-Asks-Us-768x426.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/World-Asks-Us-1536x852.png 1536w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/World-Asks-Us-2048x1136.png 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p>The post <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/ihor-korbabicz-joins-the-abacus-data-ownership-team/">Ihor Korbabicz Joins the Abacus Data Ownership Team</a> appeared first on <a href="https://abacusdata.ca">Abacus Data</a>.</p>
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<title>Liberals Hold 12-Point Lead as Carney Reaches New High and Optimism About Canada Rises Again</title>
<link>https://abacusdata.ca/liberals-hold-12-point-lead-as-carney-reaches-new-high-and-optimism-about-canada-rises-again/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Coletto]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Sun, 27 Sep 2026 09:01:00 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Canadian Politics]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Abacus Data polls]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Canadian politics]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Mark Carney]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Pierre Poilievre]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://abacusdata.ca/?p=94223</guid>
<description><![CDATA[<p>Our latest national tracking survey was conducted from September 18 to 23, following one of the busiest and most consequential stretches of federal politics in some time. Since our previous survey left the field on September 9, Prime Minister Mark Carney met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Calgary, where the two countries signed a 100-year […]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/liberals-hold-12-point-lead-as-carney-reaches-new-high-and-optimism-about-canada-rises-again/">Liberals Hold 12-Point Lead as Carney Reaches New High and Optimism About Canada Rises Again</a> appeared first on <a href="https://abacusdata.ca">Abacus Data</a>.</p>
]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Our latest national tracking survey was conducted from September 18 to 23, following one of the busiest and most consequential stretches of federal politics in some time.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Since our previous survey left the field on September 9, Prime Minister Mark Carney met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Calgary, where the two countries signed a 100-year partnership declaration focused on defence, security, trade, reconstruction and technology. Carney then convened his cabinet in Banff for a two-day planning retreat focused on the fall agenda, the economy and the intensifying trade dispute with the United States.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
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<iframe loading="lazy" title="After a Huge Two Weeks in Politics, Almost Nothing Changed — New Abacus Data Poll" width="500" height="281" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZS3k2I-Uz68?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Days later, the government hosted the first Canada Investment Summit in Toronto. The federal government says the summit produced nearly $500 billion in investment commitments. Carney also announced a major expansion of immediate expensing for business investment and plans to seek private investment through long-term concessions to operate Canada’s four largest airports, while retaining public ownership of the underlying land and assets.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Carney then travelled to Europe, addressing the European Parliament on September 17 and calling for a deeper Canada-European partnership in areas including energy, critical minerals, defence and technology. He returned to Ottawa for a Liberal caucus retreat, where he again defended the decision to suspend Canada-U.S. trade negotiations and reiterated that Canada would return to negotiations if a deal respecting Canadian interests was possible. Parliament then returned for its fall sitting on September 21.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="568" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/World-Asks-Us-1024x568.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94068" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/World-Asks-Us-1024x568.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/World-Asks-Us-300x166.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/World-Asks-Us-768x426.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/World-Asks-Us-1536x852.png 1536w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/World-Asks-Us-2048x1136.png 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">All of this occurred against the backdrop of the ongoing Canada-U.S. trade conflict, which continues to dominate a substantial part of the federal political agenda.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And yet, despite the volume and significance of events over the past two weeks, there is little evidence of a major disruption in public opinion.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Liberal Party continues to hold a large national lead. Government approval has edged higher. Mark Carney’s personal rating has reached the highest level we have recorded in our tracking. And optimism about the direction of Canada has risen again.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">If an election were held today, 46% of committed voters would vote Liberal, 34% Conservative, 9% NDP, 7% Bloc Québécois, 2% Green, 1% People’s Party and 1% another party.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Two weeks ago, the Liberal lead was 14 points, with the Liberals at 47% and the Conservatives at 33%.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Government approval is now 60%, up one point from two weeks ago, while disapproval is down two points to 25%.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Mark Carney’s personal standing has strengthened more noticeably. Fifty-six percent of Canadians have a positive impression of the Prime Minister and 25% have a negative one. His net impression is now +31 – the highest we have measured for Carney since we began tracking him.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And 48% of Canadians now believe the country is heading in the right direction, up from 45% two weeks ago. Thirty-nine percent think Canada is on the wrong track, down from 41%.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The result is a political environment that has absorbed an unusually busy period with relatively little movement in vote intention, while several broader measures of public sentiment have continued to improve.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Liberals Lead Conservatives by 12 Points</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">If an election were held today, 46% of committed voters would vote Liberal, 34% Conservative, 9% NDP, 7% Bloc Québécois, 2% Green, 1% People’s Party and 1% another party.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Compared with our survey completed on September 10, Liberal support is down one point, Conservative support is up one, the NDP is up one, the Bloc is unchanged, the Greens are down one, and the People’s Party and other parties are unchanged.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Liberal lead therefore moves from 14 points to 12.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">But among those who tell us they are certain to vote, Liberal support rises to 49% while Conservative support falls to 33%. The NDP is at 8% and the Bloc at 7%.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">That produces a 16-point Liberal advantage among those currently expressing the greatest certainty about turning out.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The regional picture continues to show substantial Liberal strength, although there has been some movement within regions.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In Ontario, the Liberals lead 51% to 34%. In Atlantic Canada, they lead 53% to 32%. In British Columbia, Liberal support is 45% compared with 37% for the Conservatives.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In Quebec, the Liberals are at 44%, the Bloc Québécois at 31%, and the Conservatives at 20%.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Conservatives continue to lead Alberta, 54% to 34%. In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the race is close, with the Liberals at 44% and Conservatives at 41%.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://abacusdata.ca/the-security-spectrum-six-canadas-sorted-by-what-they-fear-losing/"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/security_spectrum_featured_landscape-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-93731" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/security_spectrum_featured_landscape-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/security_spectrum_featured_landscape-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/security_spectrum_featured_landscape-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/security_spectrum_featured_landscape-1536x864.png 1536w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/security_spectrum_featured_landscape.png 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></a><figcaption class="wp-element-caption"><a href="https://abacusdata.ca/the-security-spectrum-six-canadas-sorted-by-what-they-fear-losing/">Learn more about this study</a></figcaption></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There are also substantial differences by age.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Among Canadians aged 60 and over, the Liberals lead 59% to 26%. They also lead among those aged 45 to 59, 47% to 35%.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The pattern reverses among younger Canadians. Among 18- to 29-year-olds, the Conservatives are at 42%, the Liberals 32%, and the NDP 15%. Among those aged 30 to 44, the Conservatives receive 39%, the Liberals 36%, and the NDP 14%.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Liberals lead among both men and women: 45% to 36% among men and 48% to 32% among women.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Educational attainment also continues to divide the electorate. Liberal support rises from 43% among those with a high school education or less, to 45% among college graduates and 50% among university graduates. Conservative support is 37%, 33% and 33%, respectively.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Liberals also continue to have the largest accessible voter pool. Sixty percent of Canadians say they would consider voting Liberal, compared with 47% for the Conservatives and 34% for the NDP.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
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" alt="Abacus Data">
<span class="brand-sep"></span>
<span class="brand-lbl">Canadian Public Affairs Update · September 2026</span>
</div>
<div class="title">Vote Intention: <em>Liberals Lead Conservatives 46% to 34%</em></div>
<div class="meta">n=2,744 Canadian adults · September 18–23, 2026 · MoE ±1.87%</div>
</div>
<div class="tabs" role="tablist">
<button class="tab on" data-tab="vote23sep26-overall" role="tab" aria-selected="true">Overall</button>
<button class="tab" data-tab="vote23sep26-trend" role="tab" aria-selected="false">Trend Line</button>
<button class="tab" data-tab="vote23sep26-subgroups" role="tab" aria-selected="false">Subgroups</button>
<button class="tab" data-tab="vote23sep26-likely" role="tab" aria-selected="false">Likely Voters</button>
<button class="tab" data-tab="vote23sep26-meth" role="tab" aria-selected="false">Methodology</button>
</div>
<div class="body">
<div class="panel on" id="vote23sep26-overall" role="tabpanel">
<div class="q">If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? Undecided removed.</div><div class="sec">Overall Federal Vote Intention</div><div class="callout"><strong>The Liberals lead with 46% of committed voters, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives at 34%.</strong> Since September 10, Liberal support is down 1 point, while Conservative and NDP support are each up 1 point.</div><div class="bar-list"><div class="bar-row" data-label="Liberal" data-value="46" data-change="-1"><div class="bar-lbl">Liberal</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:93.88%;background:#c62828"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">46%<span class="chg-badge dn">▼ -1</span></div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="Conservative" data-value="34" data-change="1"><div class="bar-lbl">Conservative</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:69.39%;background:#1565c0"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">34%<span class="chg-badge up">▲ +1</span></div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="NDP" data-value="9" data-change="1"><div class="bar-lbl">NDP</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:18.37%;background:#e65100"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">9%<span class="chg-badge up">▲ +1</span></div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="BQ" data-value="7" data-change="0"><div class="bar-lbl">BQ</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:14.29%;background:#4a90d9"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">7%<span class="chg-badge nc">NC</span></div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="Green" data-value="2" data-change="-1"><div class="bar-lbl">Green</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:4.08%;background:#4caf50"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">2%<span class="chg-badge dn">▼ -1</span></div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="People's" data-value="1" data-change="0"><div class="bar-lbl">People's</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:2.04%;background:#83329b"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">1%<span class="chg-badge nc">NC</span></div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="Other" data-value="1" data-change="0"><div class="bar-lbl">Other</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:2.04%;background:#8a8a8a"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">1%<span class="chg-badge nc">NC</span></div></div></div><div class="tbl-note">Change is from September 10, 2026. Undecided respondents are removed from party shares.</div>
</div>
<div class="panel" id="vote23sep26-trend" role="tabpanel">
<div class="q">Federal vote intention over time. Undecided removed.</div><div class="sec">Federal Vote Intention Trend</div><div class="callout"><strong>The Liberals remain in first place at 46%, followed by the Conservatives at 34%.</strong> The Excel series contains 63 observations and ends with the September 23, 2026 wave.</div><div class="trend-card"><div class="trend-legend"><span class="trend-key"><i style="background:#c62828"></i>Liberal <strong>46%</strong></span><span class="trend-key"><i style="background:#1565c0"></i>Conservative <strong>34%</strong></span><span class="trend-key"><i style="background:#e65100"></i>NDP <strong>9%</strong></span><span class="trend-key"><i style="background:#4a90d9"></i>BQ <strong>7%</strong></span><span class="trend-key"><i style="background:#4caf50"></i>Green <strong>2%</strong></span></div><svg class="trend-svg" viewBox="0 0 840 420" role="img" aria-labelledby="vote23sep26-trend-title vote23sep26-trend-desc"><title id="vote23sep26-trend-title">Federal vote intention trend</title><desc id="vote23sep26-trend-desc">Trend with 63 observations for Liberal, Conservative, NDP, Bloc Québécois, and Green vote intention.</desc><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="364.00" x2="812" y2="364.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="368.00" text-anchor="end">0%</text><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="296.00" x2="812" y2="296.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="300.00" text-anchor="end">10%</text><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="228.00" x2="812" y2="228.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="232.00" text-anchor="end">20%</text><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="160.00" x2="812" y2="160.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="164.00" text-anchor="end">30%</text><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="92.00" x2="812" y2="92.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="96.00" text-anchor="end">40%</text><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="24.00" x2="812" y2="24.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="28.00" text-anchor="end">50%</text><text class="axis-x" x="58.00" y="387" text-anchor="start">Jul 2024</text><text class="axis-x" x="203.94" y="387" text-anchor="middle">Jan 2025</text><text class="axis-x" x="362.03" y="387" text-anchor="middle">Apr 2025</text><text class="axis-x" x="507.97" y="387" text-anchor="middle">Oct 2025</text><text class="axis-x" x="666.06" y="387" text-anchor="middle">Apr 2025</text><text class="axis-x" x="812.00" y="387" text-anchor="end">Sep 2026</text><polyline class="trend-line" data-series="Liberal" data-values="22.92381196,23.34793899,25.00000000,22.00000000,20.92153687,22.34623214,22.24599114,21.85692903,20.51605249,21.00407680,21.00000000,20.00000000,20.00000000,20.00000000,22.00000000,27.00000000,29.37785442,34.00000000,36.21298677,38.00000000,39.01565688,39.35945223,42.00000000,44.00000000,40.00000000,42.00000000,41.00000000,44.00000000,40.80502035,42.29077036,42.17533428,40.62330894,42.81211743,42.54475825,39.36626970,42.66790312,39.95028692,39.92785290,39.92785290,39.53049978,40.21351842,41.19402250,40.74943878,39.74518636,41.00000000,43.00000000,43.99622896,44.00000000,45.91088723,43.64134778,43.94575280,45.25087223,46.07074670,46.93285292,43.71975670,44.65052293,44.37011273,43.00000000,43.82020720,41.59392708,44.66823283,46.99375529,46.34764902" points="58.00,208.12 70.16,205.23 82.32,194.00 94.48,214.40 106.65,221.73 118.81,212.05 130.97,212.73 143.13,215.37 155.29,224.49 167.45,221.17 179.61,221.20 191.77,228.00 203.94,228.00 216.10,228.00 228.26,214.40 240.42,180.40 252.58,164.23 264.74,132.80 276.90,117.75 289.06,105.60 301.23,98.69 313.39,96.36 325.55,78.40 337.71,64.80 349.87,92.00 362.03,78.40 374.19,85.20 386.35,64.80 398.52,86.53 410.68,76.42 422.84,77.21 435.00,87.76 447.16,72.88 459.32,74.70 471.48,96.31 483.65,73.86 495.81,92.34 507.97,92.49 520.13,92.49 532.29,95.19 544.45,90.55 556.61,83.88 568.77,86.90 580.94,93.73 593.10,85.20 605.26,71.60 617.42,64.83 629.58,64.80 641.74,51.81 653.90,67.24 666.06,65.17 678.23,56.29 690.39,50.72 702.55,44.86 714.71,66.71 726.87,60.38 739.03,62.28 751.19,71.60 763.35,66.02 775.52,81.16 787.68,60.26 799.84,44.44 812.00,48.84" style="stroke:#c62828"></polyline><circle class="end-dot" cx="812.00" cy="48.84" r="4" style="fill:#c62828"></circle><polyline class="trend-line" data-series="Conservative" data-values="41.97300633,43.11803343,42.00000000,43.00000000,43.44737266,43.41884444,44.16940645,41.34118948,42.74784715,44.30339161,44.00000000,45.00000000,47.00000000,46.00000000,43.00000000,46.00000000,41.36574337,38.00000000,38.52784466,37.00000000,39.17641060,38.62957287,36.00000000,39.00000000,39.00000000,37.00000000,39.00000000,42.00000000,39.96795996,39.00000000,39.06233287,39.63075975,40.28207855,39.84593174,41.25485982,40.04090492,39.96710418,40.67335877,40.67335877,42.02791333,41.02099018,40.36425044,40.87851244,40.31060433,39.00000000,39.00000000,37.44904862,37.62604500,35.47877552,37.48111625,37.75416202,35.81249029,35.85701530,35.49104383,35.88729200,36.88480774,36.04691157,37.00000000,37.59225873,35.37419113,34.99835842,33.34671727,33.97141816" points="58.00,78.58 70.16,70.80 82.32,78.40 94.48,71.60 106.65,68.56 118.81,68.75 130.97,63.65 143.13,82.88 155.29,73.31 167.45,62.74 179.61,64.80 191.77,58.00 203.94,44.40 216.10,51.20 228.26,71.60 240.42,51.20 252.58,82.71 264.74,105.60 276.90,102.01 289.06,112.40 301.23,97.60 313.39,101.32 325.55,119.20 337.71,98.80 349.87,98.80 362.03,112.40 374.19,98.80 386.35,78.40 398.52,92.22 410.68,98.80 422.84,98.38 435.00,94.51 447.16,90.08 459.32,93.05 471.48,83.47 483.65,91.72 495.81,92.22 507.97,87.42 520.13,87.42 532.29,78.21 544.45,85.06 556.61,89.52 568.77,86.03 580.94,89.89 593.10,98.80 605.26,98.80 617.42,109.35 629.58,108.14 641.74,122.74 653.90,109.13 666.06,107.27 678.23,120.48 690.39,120.17 702.55,122.66 714.71,119.97 726.87,113.18 739.03,118.88 751.19,112.40 763.35,108.37 775.52,123.46 787.68,126.01 799.84,137.24 812.00,132.99" style="stroke:#1565c0"></polyline><circle class="end-dot" cx="812.00" cy="132.99" r="4" style="fill:#1565c0"></circle><polyline class="trend-line" data-series="NDP" data-values="19.54967808,18.32150433,18.00000000,18.00000000,19.21025892,19.14254470,18.26212301,19.52970198,20.73092754,19.86848906,19.00000000,18.00000000,18.00000000,19.00000000,18.00000000,14.56002635,14.49078762,15.00000000,12.48180440,11.00000000,10.60105936,11.06681253,11.00000000,8.00000000,12.00000000,10.00000000,10.00000000,6.00000000,8.24171152,7.48392298,6.95292370,8.62551762,6.55225125,8.23134137,7.45144485,6.44026713,7.70327267,7.11374857,8.00000000,8.25255520,8.04852411,7.95370184,8.55815868,8.02383808,8.00000000,8.00000000,8.13942693,6.61682717,6.97656762,8.53240703,8.18091456,7.96780023,7.76049470,7.53656814,10.52699865,8.99946607,8.14873495,9.00000000,8.59603113,9.61546202,8.97697905,8.24342311,8.62910048" points="58.00,231.06 70.16,239.41 82.32,241.60 94.48,241.60 106.65,233.37 118.81,233.83 130.97,239.82 143.13,231.20 155.29,223.03 167.45,228.89 179.61,234.80 191.77,241.60 203.94,241.60 216.10,234.80 228.26,241.60 240.42,264.99 252.58,265.46 264.74,262.00 276.90,279.12 289.06,289.20 301.23,291.91 313.39,288.75 325.55,289.20 337.71,309.60 349.87,282.40 362.03,296.00 374.19,296.00 386.35,323.20 398.52,307.96 410.68,313.11 422.84,316.72 435.00,305.35 447.16,319.44 459.32,308.03 471.48,313.33 483.65,320.21 495.81,311.62 507.97,315.63 520.13,309.60 532.29,307.88 544.45,309.27 556.61,309.91 568.77,305.80 580.94,309.44 593.10,309.60 605.26,309.60 617.42,308.65 629.58,319.01 641.74,316.56 653.90,305.98 666.06,308.37 678.23,309.82 690.39,311.23 702.55,312.75 714.71,292.42 726.87,302.80 739.03,308.59 751.19,302.80 763.35,305.55 775.52,298.61 787.68,302.96 799.84,307.94 812.00,305.32" style="stroke:#e65100"></polyline><circle class="end-dot" cx="812.00" cy="305.32" r="4" style="fill:#e65100"></circle><polyline class="trend-line" data-series="BQ" data-values="7.96198456,6.59020433,7.00000000,8.00000000,8.09960149,7.78211254,8.09524336,7.85503073,7.90397719,7.11770537,7.00000000,8.00000000,8.00000000,8.00000000,9.00000000,6.66316348,6.20073615,7.00000000,6.27115909,6.00000000,5.10172564,5.60205993,5.00000000,6.00000000,7.00000000,6.00000000,6.00000000,6.00000000,6.84495644,6.64077705,6.29739799,6.83903054,6.87654774,5.57226956,7.31899126,6.54508165,6.65950413,6.60146813,6.60146813,5.73637824,6.79420818,6.53033751,6.34298689,6.82544686,7.00000000,6.19533205,5.84828772,6.00000000,7.10949686,6.02101857,5.78544443,6.61681758,5.79310919,5.91043459,5.57821632,5.53362267,6.84143079,7.00000000,6.02970852,7.84212533,7.30885417,6.54190898,6.81769916" points="58.00,309.86 70.16,319.19 82.32,316.40 94.48,309.60 106.65,308.92 118.81,311.08 130.97,308.95 143.13,310.59 155.29,310.25 167.45,315.60 179.61,316.40 191.77,309.60 203.94,309.60 216.10,309.60 228.26,302.80 240.42,318.69 252.58,321.83 264.74,316.40 276.90,321.36 289.06,323.20 301.23,329.31 313.39,325.91 325.55,330.00 337.71,323.20 349.87,316.40 362.03,323.20 374.19,323.20 386.35,323.20 398.52,317.45 410.68,318.84 422.84,321.18 435.00,317.49 447.16,317.24 459.32,326.11 471.48,314.23 483.65,319.49 495.81,318.72 507.97,319.11 520.13,319.11 532.29,324.99 544.45,317.80 556.61,319.59 568.77,320.87 580.94,317.59 593.10,316.40 605.26,321.87 617.42,324.23 629.58,323.20 641.74,315.66 653.90,323.06 666.06,324.66 678.23,319.01 690.39,324.61 702.55,323.81 714.71,326.07 726.87,326.37 739.03,317.48 751.19,316.40 763.35,323.00 775.52,310.67 787.68,314.30 799.84,319.52 812.00,317.64" style="stroke:#4a90d9"></polyline><circle class="end-dot" cx="812.00" cy="317.64" r="4" style="fill:#4a90d9"></circle><polyline class="trend-line" data-series="Green" data-values="3.77236336,3.89734730,5.00000000,5.00000000,4.55474970,4.40427745,4.61623705,4.99905091,4.39343435,4.81174768,4.00000000,4.00000000,3.00000000,4.00000000,5.00000000,2.50853096,4.43206947,4.00000000,3.72491194,4.00000000,2.90404097,3.05656091,2.00000000,1.00000000,2.00000000,2.00000000,1.00000000,1.00000000,2.62473834,2.22688014,3.16508259,2.47570851,2.22959657,1.92495149,2.38343495,2.37531126,3.26777519,3.01850229,3.01850229,2.68216534,2.22519123,2.11664387,2.33983658,2.63855816,3.00000000,2.10397817,2.74488095,1.82811189,2.93553120,2.70819634,2.77839909,2.14629945,2.63137482,2.29849253,2.69144829,2.11153688,2.15478842,1.00000000,2.50842863,3.64777124,2.13957803,3.01077087,2.32487741" points="58.00,338.35 70.16,337.50 82.32,330.00 94.48,330.00 106.65,333.03 118.81,334.05 130.97,332.61 143.13,330.01 155.29,334.12 167.45,331.28 179.61,336.80 191.77,336.80 203.94,343.60 216.10,336.80 228.26,330.00 240.42,346.94 252.58,333.86 264.74,336.80 276.90,338.67 289.06,336.80 301.23,344.25 313.39,343.22 325.55,350.40 337.71,357.20 349.87,350.40 362.03,350.40 374.19,357.20 386.35,357.20 398.52,346.15 410.68,348.86 422.84,342.48 435.00,347.17 447.16,348.84 459.32,350.91 471.48,347.79 483.65,347.85 495.81,341.78 507.97,343.47 520.13,343.47 532.29,345.76 544.45,348.87 556.61,349.61 568.77,348.09 580.94,346.06 593.10,343.60 605.26,349.69 617.42,345.33 629.58,351.57 641.74,344.04 653.90,345.58 666.06,345.11 678.23,349.41 690.39,346.11 702.55,348.37 714.71,345.70 726.87,349.64 739.03,349.35 751.19,357.20 763.35,346.94 775.52,339.20 787.68,349.45 799.84,343.53 812.00,348.19" style="stroke:#4caf50"></polyline><circle class="end-dot" cx="812.00" cy="348.19" r="4" style="fill:#4caf50"></circle></svg></div><div class="tbl-note">Source: vote.xlsx, Sheet1. The trend contains 63 observations and ends September 23, 2026.</div>
</div>
<div class="panel" id="vote23sep26-subgroups" role="tabpanel">
<div class="q">If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? Undecided removed. (By region, gender, and age.)</div><div class="callout"><strong>The Conservatives lead in Alberta and among Canadians younger than 45, while the Liberals lead every other region and older age group.</strong> The Liberal lead is widest in Atlantic Canada and among those aged 60 and over.</div><div class="sec">Vote Intention by Region</div><div class="table-wrap"><table class="sub-tbl vote-region" data-columns="Canada|BC|AB|SK/MB|ON|QC|ATL"><tr><th>Party</th><th>Canada</th><th>BC</th><th>AB</th><th>SK/MB</th><th>ON</th><th>QC</th><th>ATL</th></tr><tr data-row="Liberal"><td><span class="party-dot" style="background:#c62828"></span>Liberal</td><td class="hi" style="color:#c62828" data-column="Canada" data-value="46">46%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#c62828" data-column="BC" data-value="45">45%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#c62828" data-column="AB" data-value="34">34%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#c62828" data-column="SK/MB" data-value="44">44%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#c62828" data-column="ON" data-value="51">51%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#c62828" data-column="QC" data-value="44">44%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#c62828" data-column="ATL" data-value="53">53%</td></tr><tr data-row="Conservative"><td><span class="party-dot" style="background:#1565c0"></span>Conservative</td><td class="hi" style="color:#1565c0" data-column="Canada" data-value="34">34%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#1565c0" data-column="BC" data-value="37">37%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#1565c0" data-column="AB" data-value="54">54%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#1565c0" data-column="SK/MB" data-value="41">41%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#1565c0" data-column="ON" data-value="34">34%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#1565c0" data-column="QC" data-value="20">20%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#1565c0" data-column="ATL" data-value="32">32%</td></tr><tr data-row="NDP"><td><span class="party-dot" style="background:#e65100"></span>NDP</td><td class="hi" style="color:#e65100" data-column="Canada" data-value="9">9%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#e65100" data-column="BC" data-value="12">12%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#e65100" data-column="AB" data-value="10">10%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#e65100" data-column="SK/MB" data-value="10">10%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#e65100" data-column="ON" data-value="9">9%</td><td data-column="QC" data-value="3">3%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#e65100" data-column="ATL" data-value="13">13%</td></tr><tr data-row="BQ"><td><span class="party-dot" style="background:#4a90d9"></span>BQ</td><td data-column="Canada" data-value="7">7%</td><td data-column="BC" data-value="0">0%</td><td data-column="AB" data-value="0">0%</td><td data-column="SK/MB" data-value="0">0%</td><td data-column="ON" data-value="0">0%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#4a90d9" data-column="QC" data-value="31">31%</td><td data-column="ATL" data-value="0">0%</td></tr><tr data-row="Green"><td><span class="party-dot" style="background:#4caf50"></span>Green</td><td data-column="Canada" data-value="2">2%</td><td data-column="BC" data-value="5">5%</td><td data-column="AB" data-value="0">0%</td><td data-column="SK/MB" data-value="3">3%</td><td data-column="ON" data-value="3">3%</td><td data-column="QC" data-value="2">2%</td><td data-column="ATL" data-value="0">0%</td></tr><tr data-row="People's"><td><span class="party-dot" style="background:#83329b"></span>People's</td><td data-column="Canada" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="BC" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="AB" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="SK/MB" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="ON" data-value="2">2%</td><td data-column="QC" data-value="0">0%</td><td data-column="ATL" data-value="2">2%</td></tr><tr data-row="Other"><td><span class="party-dot" style="background:#8a8a8a"></span>Other</td><td data-column="Canada" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="BC" data-value="0">0%</td><td data-column="AB" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="SK/MB" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="ON" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="QC" data-value="0">0%</td><td data-column="ATL" data-value="1">1%</td></tr></table></div><div class="tbl-note">Each regional column's top three parties are highlighted. Values may not total 100 due to rounding.</div><div class="sec sub-sec">Vote Intention by Gender and Age</div><div class="table-wrap"><table class="sub-tbl vote-demo" data-columns="Canada|Male|Female|18 to 29|30 to 44|45 to 59|60 and over"><tr><th>Party</th><th>Canada</th><th>Male</th><th>Female</th><th>18 to 29</th><th>30 to 44</th><th>45 to 59</th><th>60 and over</th></tr><tr data-row="Liberal"><td><span class="party-dot" style="background:#c62828"></span>Liberal</td><td class="hi" style="color:#c62828" data-column="Canada" data-value="46">46%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#c62828" data-column="Male" data-value="45">45%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#c62828" data-column="Female" data-value="48">48%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#c62828" data-column="18 to 29" data-value="32">32%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#c62828" data-column="30 to 44" data-value="36">36%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#c62828" data-column="45 to 59" data-value="47">47%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#c62828" data-column="60 and over" data-value="59">59%</td></tr><tr data-row="Conservative"><td><span class="party-dot" style="background:#1565c0"></span>Conservative</td><td class="hi" style="color:#1565c0" data-column="Canada" data-value="34">34%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#1565c0" data-column="Male" data-value="36">36%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#1565c0" data-column="Female" data-value="32">32%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#1565c0" data-column="18 to 29" data-value="42">42%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#1565c0" data-column="30 to 44" data-value="39">39%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#1565c0" data-column="45 to 59" data-value="35">35%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#1565c0" data-column="60 and over" data-value="26">26%</td></tr><tr data-row="NDP"><td><span class="party-dot" style="background:#e65100"></span>NDP</td><td class="hi" style="color:#e65100" data-column="Canada" data-value="9">9%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#e65100" data-column="Male" data-value="8">8%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#e65100" data-column="Female" data-value="10">10%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#e65100" data-column="18 to 29" data-value="15">15%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#e65100" data-column="30 to 44" data-value="14">14%</td><td data-column="45 to 59" data-value="6">6%</td><td data-column="60 and over" data-value="4">4%</td></tr><tr data-row="BQ"><td><span class="party-dot" style="background:#4a90d9"></span>BQ</td><td data-column="Canada" data-value="7">7%</td><td data-column="Male" data-value="7">7%</td><td data-column="Female" data-value="7">7%</td><td data-column="18 to 29" data-value="7">7%</td><td data-column="30 to 44" data-value="5">5%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#4a90d9" data-column="45 to 59" data-value="8">8%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#4a90d9" data-column="60 and over" data-value="8">8%</td></tr><tr data-row="Green"><td><span class="party-dot" style="background:#4caf50"></span>Green</td><td data-column="Canada" data-value="2">2%</td><td data-column="Male" data-value="2">2%</td><td data-column="Female" data-value="3">3%</td><td data-column="18 to 29" data-value="3">3%</td><td data-column="30 to 44" data-value="3">3%</td><td data-column="45 to 59" data-value="3">3%</td><td data-column="60 and over" data-value="1">1%</td></tr><tr data-row="People's"><td><span class="party-dot" style="background:#83329b"></span>People's</td><td data-column="Canada" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="Male" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="Female" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="18 to 29" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="30 to 44" data-value="2">2%</td><td data-column="45 to 59" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="60 and over" data-value="1">1%</td></tr><tr data-row="Other"><td><span class="party-dot" style="background:#8a8a8a"></span>Other</td><td data-column="Canada" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="Male" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="Female" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="18 to 29" data-value="0">0%</td><td data-column="30 to 44" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="45 to 59" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="60 and over" data-value="1">1%</td></tr></table></div><div class="tbl-note">Each demographic column's top three parties are highlighted. Values may not total 100 due to rounding.</div>
</div>
<div class="panel" id="vote23sep26-likely" role="tabpanel">
<div class="q">If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? Undecided removed. (Among respondents certain to vote.)</div><div class="sec">Federal Vote Intention Among Those Certain to Vote</div><div class="callout"><strong>Among those certain to vote, the Liberals rise to 49%, creating a 16-point lead over the Conservatives at 33%.</strong> The turnout screen gives the Liberals a 3-point boost and lowers Conservative and NDP support by 1 point each.</div><div class="bar-list"><div class="bar-row" data-label="Liberal" data-value="49" data-change="3"><div class="bar-lbl">Liberal</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:100.00%;background:#c62828"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">49%<span class="chg-badge up">▲ +3</span></div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="Conservative" data-value="33" data-change="-1"><div class="bar-lbl">Conservative</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:67.35%;background:#1565c0"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">33%<span class="chg-badge dn">▼ -1</span></div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="NDP" data-value="8" data-change="-1"><div class="bar-lbl">NDP</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:16.33%;background:#e65100"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">8%<span class="chg-badge dn">▼ -1</span></div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="BQ" data-value="7" data-change="0"><div class="bar-lbl">BQ</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:14.29%;background:#4a90d9"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">7%<span class="chg-badge nc">NC</span></div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="Green" data-value="2" data-change="0"><div class="bar-lbl">Green</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:4.08%;background:#4caf50"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">2%<span class="chg-badge nc">NC</span></div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="People's" data-value="1" data-change="0"><div class="bar-lbl">People's</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:2.04%;background:#83329b"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">1%<span class="chg-badge nc">NC</span></div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="Other" data-value="0" data-change="-1"><div class="bar-lbl">Other</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:0.00%;background:#8a8a8a"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">0%<span class="chg-badge dn">▼ -1</span></div></div></div><div class="tbl-note">Turnout boost or suppression is the difference from the overall vote-intention result. NC means no change.</div>
</div>
<div class="panel" id="vote23sep26-meth" role="tabpanel">
<div class="sec">Methodology</div><div class="meth"><p>The survey was conducted with <strong>2,744 Canadian adults</strong> from <strong>September 18 to 23, 2026</strong>.</p><p>A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey through a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.</p><p>The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is <strong>plus or minus 1.87 percentage points, 19 times out of 20</strong>.</p><p>The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Canada's population according to age, gender, educational attainment and region. Totals may not add to 100 because of rounding.</p><p>All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.</p><p>The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.</p></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="ftr">
<div class="ftr-l"><span class="ftr-b">Abacus Data</span> · Canadian Public Affairs Update · September 23, 2026 · n=2,744 · MoE ±1.87%</div>
<div class="ftr-r">abacusdata.ca</div>
</div>
</div>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The Time-for-Change Equation Looks Very Different Than It Did One or Two Years Ago</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">One of the most revealing charts in this wave is our long-term measure asking Canadians whether they think it is time for a change in government or whether they would prefer to re-elect the Liberals.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Today, 43% say they would re-elect the Liberals.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Thirty-three percent say it is time for a change and that there is a good alternative available, while another 24% say it is time for a change but there is not a good alternative.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The comparison with one and two years ago is striking.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">At roughly this point two years ago, just 15% said they would re-elect the Liberals. Fifty-four percent said it was time for a change and there was a good alternative, while 31% wanted change but did not think there was a good alternative.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">One year ago, 32% said they would re-elect the Liberals, 40% said it was time for a change and there was a good alternative, and 28% wanted change but did not see a good alternative.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Today those numbers are 43%, 33% and 24%, respectively.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Put another way, the total share saying it is time for a change has fallen from 85% two years ago, to 68% one year ago, to 57% today.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">At the same time, the share saying the Liberals should be re-elected has risen 28 points over two years and 11 points over the past year.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Perhaps the clearest way to see the shift is to compare the re-elect number with the share who both want change and believe there is a good alternative.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Two years ago, “time for change, good alternative” led “re-elect Liberals” by 39 points, 54% to 15%.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">One year ago, that gap was eight points, 40% to 32%.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Today the relationship has reversed: 43% say re-elect the Liberals while 33% say it is time for a change and there is a good alternative.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">That does not mean the desire for change has disappeared. A majority, 57%, still choose one of the two change options. But the composition of opinion is substantially different from where it was even a year ago.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The long-term chart therefore captures something the vote-intention numbers alone do not: a significant change in how Canadians think about the basic re-election proposition facing the Liberal government.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
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#abd-change23sep26 .trend-svg{display:block;width:100%;height:auto;overflow:visible}
#abd-change23sep26 .grid{stroke:#e0e8d8;stroke-width:1;vector-effect:non-scaling-stroke}
#abd-change23sep26 .axis-y,#abd-change23sep26 .axis-x{fill:#5a7a5a;font-size:10px}
#abd-change23sep26 .trend-line{fill:none;stroke-width:3;stroke-linecap:round;stroke-linejoin:round;vector-effect:non-scaling-stroke}
#abd-change23sep26 .end-dot{stroke:#fff;stroke-width:1;vector-effect:non-scaling-stroke}
@media(max-width:600px){
#abd-change23sep26 .hdr{padding:20px 18px 17px}
#abd-change23sep26 .tabs{padding:0 8px}
#abd-change23sep26 .tab{padding:9px 6px;font-size:8px;letter-spacing:.04em}
#abd-change23sep26 .bar-row{grid-template-columns:118px 1fr 42px;gap:6px}
#abd-change23sep26 .bar-lbl{font-size:9px}
#abd-change23sep26 .bar-pct{font-size:10px}
}
</style>
<div class="abd-change23sep26-wrap">
<div id="abd-change23sep26">
<div class="hdr">
<div class="brand">
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" alt="Abacus Data">
<span class="brand-sep"></span>
<span class="brand-lbl">Canadian Public Affairs Update · September 2026</span>
</div>
<div class="title">Desire for Change: <em>43% Would Re-elect the Liberals</em></div>
<div class="meta">n=2,744 Canadian adults · September 18–23, 2026 · MoE ±1.87%</div>
</div>
<div class="tabs" role="tablist">
<button class="tab on" data-tab="change23sep26-overall" role="tab" aria-selected="true">Overall Results</button>
<button class="tab" data-tab="change23sep26-trend" role="tab" aria-selected="false">Trend Line</button>
<button class="tab" data-tab="change23sep26-meth" role="tab" aria-selected="false">Methodology</button>
</div>
<div class="body">
<div class="panel on" id="change23sep26-overall" role="tabpanel">
<div class="q">Which of the following comes closest to your view?</div><div class="sec">Current Results</div><div class="callout"><strong>Re-electing the Liberals is now the largest single response at 43%.</strong> One third say it is time for a change and there is a good alternative, while 24% want change but do not see a good alternative.</div><div class="bar-list"><div class="bar-row" data-label="Time for change, good alternative" data-value="33"><div class="bar-lbl">Time for change, good alternative</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:76.74%;background:#2e7d32"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">33%</div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="Time for change, isn't a good alternative" data-value="24"><div class="bar-lbl">Time for change, isn't a good alternative</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:55.81%;background:#a8d878"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">24%</div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="Re-elect Liberals" data-value="43"><div class="bar-lbl">Re-elect Liberals</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:100.00%;background:#c62828"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">43%</div></div></div><div class="tbl-note">The three response categories sum to 100%.</div>
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<div class="panel" id="change23sep26-trend" role="tabpanel">
<div class="q">Which of the following comes closest to your view? (Trend over time.)</div><div class="sec">Desire for Change versus Re-elect Liberals</div><div class="callout"><strong>The re-elect Liberal measure reaches 43% in the September 23 wave, while the share saying it is time for change and there is a good alternative falls to 33%.</strong> The remaining 24% want change but do not see a good alternative.</div><div class="trend-card"><div class="trend-legend"><span class="trend-key"><i style="background:#2e7d32"></i>Time for change, good alternative <strong>33%</strong></span><span class="trend-key"><i style="background:#a8d878"></i>Time for change, isn't a good alternative <strong>24%</strong></span><span class="trend-key"><i style="background:#c62828"></i>Re-elect Liberals <strong>43%</strong></span></div><svg class="trend-svg" viewBox="0 0 840 420" role="img" aria-labelledby="change23sep26-trend-title change23sep26-trend-desc"><title id="change23sep26-trend-title">Desire for change and re-elect Liberal trend</title><desc id="change23sep26-trend-desc">Trend with 81 observations across three response categories.</desc><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="364.00" x2="812" y2="364.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="368.00" text-anchor="end">10%</text><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="296.00" x2="812" y2="296.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="300.00" text-anchor="end">20%</text><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="228.00" x2="812" y2="228.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="232.00" text-anchor="end">30%</text><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="160.00" x2="812" y2="160.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="164.00" text-anchor="end">40%</text><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="92.00" x2="812" y2="92.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="96.00" text-anchor="end">50%</text><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="24.00" x2="812" y2="24.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="28.00" text-anchor="end">60%</text><text class="axis-x" x="58.00" y="387" text-anchor="start">Jun 2023</text><text class="axis-x" x="208.80" y="387" text-anchor="middle">Feb 2024</text><text class="axis-x" x="359.60" y="387" text-anchor="middle">Oct 2024</text><text class="axis-x" x="510.40" y="387" text-anchor="middle">Jun 2025</text><text class="axis-x" x="661.20" y="387" text-anchor="middle">Feb 2026</text><text class="axis-x" x="812.00" y="387" text-anchor="end">Sep 2026</text><polyline class="trend-line" data-series="Time for change, good alternative" 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755.45,156.97 764.88,171.64 774.30,168.92 783.73,165.26 793.15,174.68 802.58,188.77 812.00,205.23" style="stroke:#2e7d32"></polyline><circle class="end-dot" cx="812.00" cy="205.23" r="4" style="fill:#2e7d32"></circle><polyline class="trend-line" data-series="Time for change, isn't a good alternative" 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727.17,266.83 736.60,276.28 746.02,268.99 755.45,277.60 764.88,264.47 774.30,262.26 783.73,271.57 793.15,272.07 802.58,275.53 812.00,267.89" style="stroke:#a8d878"></polyline><circle class="end-dot" cx="812.00" cy="267.89" r="4" style="fill:#a8d878"></circle><polyline class="trend-line" data-series="Re-elect Liberals" 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points="58.00,296.00 67.42,289.20 76.85,302.80 86.28,296.00 95.70,296.00 105.12,316.40 114.55,316.40 123.97,323.20 133.40,316.40 142.82,316.40 152.25,323.20 161.68,330.00 171.10,323.20 180.53,323.20 189.95,330.17 199.38,336.80 208.80,328.37 218.22,328.99 227.65,330.00 237.07,318.68 246.50,321.52 255.93,323.20 265.35,330.00 274.77,315.62 284.20,323.20 293.62,323.20 303.05,330.00 312.48,327.91 321.90,324.17 331.32,336.80 340.75,336.80 350.18,332.58 359.60,330.39 369.02,325.89 378.45,330.81 387.88,335.06 397.30,340.15 406.73,330.00 416.15,357.20 425.57,350.40 435.00,350.40 444.43,323.20 453.85,305.96 463.27,298.99 472.70,289.20 482.12,248.40 491.55,241.60 500.98,228.29 510.40,200.79 519.83,208.27 529.25,196.18 538.67,203.63 548.10,203.88 557.52,218.93 566.95,227.03 576.38,212.70 585.80,217.43 595.23,214.40 604.65,221.23 614.08,206.14 623.50,209.83 632.92,210.48 642.35,204.59 651.77,184.87 661.20,177.91 670.62,173.29 680.05,162.88 689.48,169.87 698.90,180.15 708.33,157.27 717.75,165.82 727.17,160.65 736.60,175.89 746.02,177.51 755.45,181.43 764.88,179.90 774.30,184.82 783.73,179.18 793.15,169.25 802.58,151.70 812.00,142.88" style="stroke:#c62828"></polyline><circle class="end-dot" cx="812.00" cy="142.88" r="4" style="fill:#c62828"></circle></svg></div><div class="tbl-note">Source: desireforchange.xlsx, Sheet1. The trend contains 81 observations and ends September 23, 2026.</div>
</div>
<div class="panel" id="change23sep26-meth" role="tabpanel">
<div class="sec">Methodology</div><div class="meth"><p>The survey was conducted with <strong>2,744 Canadian adults</strong> from <strong>September 18 to 23, 2026</strong>.</p><p>A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey through a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.</p><p>The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is <strong>plus or minus 1.87 percentage points, 19 times out of 20</strong>.</p><p>The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Canada's population according to age, gender, educational attainment and region. Totals may not add to 100 because of rounding.</p><p>All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.</p><p>The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.</p></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="ftr">
<div class="ftr-l"><span class="ftr-b">Abacus Data</span> · Canadian Public Affairs Update · September 23, 2026 · n=2,744 · MoE ±1.87%</div>
<div class="ftr-r">abacusdata.ca</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Carney Reaches a New High in Our Tracking</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Mark Carney’s personal rating has improved again and is now at the highest level we have recorded for him.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Fifty-six percent of Canadians have a positive impression of the Prime Minister. Twenty-five percent have a negative impression and 17% are neutral.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">That produces a net impression of +31.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Two weeks ago, Carney’s net impression was +27. His positive rating has risen two points while his negative rating has fallen two.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The improvement also leaves a substantial gap between Carney and the other major federal party leaders.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Pierre Poilievre is viewed positively by 34% and negatively by 45%, producing a reported net impression of -12. Avi Lewis is viewed positively by 18% and negatively by 26%, for a reported net impression of -9.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Carney’s standing is positive in every region of the country.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">His net impression is +46 in Quebec, +31 in Ontario, +26 in British Columbia, +23 in Atlantic Canada, and +20 in both Alberta and Saskatchewan and Manitoba.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There are also relatively few gender differences: Carney’s net impression is +31 among both men and women.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Age produces a much wider gap. His net impression is +48 among those aged 60 and over, compared with +26 among 18- to 29-year-olds, +18 among 30- to 44-year-olds, and +22 among those aged 45 to 59.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Among 2025 Liberal voters, Carney’s net impression is +82. It is also positive among former NDP voters (+32) and Bloc voters (+36), while it is -24 among Conservative voters.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
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#abd-leaders23sep26 .stack-track{display:flex;height:24px;overflow:hidden;border-radius:4px;background:#e8ede0}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .stack-seg{display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:center;min-width:0;height:100%;overflow:hidden}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .stack-seg span{font-size:9px;font-weight:800;color:#fff;white-space:nowrap}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .leader-legend{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:7px 10px;margin-top:9px}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .legend-key{display:inline-flex;align-items:center;font-size:9px;color:#3a5a3a}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .legend-key i{display:inline-block;width:8px;height:8px;border-radius:50%;margin-right:5px;flex:0 0 auto}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .legend-key strong{margin-left:3px;color:#2d4a2d}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .signed-groups{display:grid;grid-template-columns:1fr 1fr;gap:18px}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .sg{background:#fff;border:1px solid #e0e8d8;border-radius:7px;padding:12px}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .sg h3{font-size:10px;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:.08em;color:#2d4a2d;border-bottom:1px solid #c8ddb8;padding-bottom:5px;margin-bottom:8px}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .signed-row{display:grid;grid-template-columns:105px 1fr 38px;gap:6px;align-items:center;margin:7px 0}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .signed-lbl{font-size:9px;color:#2d4a2d;text-align:right}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .signed-track{position:relative;height:14px;background:#eef1eb;border-radius:3px;overflow:hidden}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .signed-track::after{content:'';position:absolute;left:50%;top:0;bottom:0;width:1px;background:#9ca59a}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .signed-fill{position:absolute;top:0;height:100%}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .signed-fill.pos{background:#2e7d32}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .signed-fill.neg{background:#e53935}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .signed-val{font-size:10px;font-weight:800}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .signed-val.pos{color:#2e7d32}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .signed-val.neg{color:#e53935}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .trend-card{background:#fff;border:1px solid #c8ddb8;border-radius:8px;padding:14px 12px 8px}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .trend-legend{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:7px 12px;margin-bottom:12px}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .trend-key{display:inline-flex;align-items:center;font-size:10px;color:#3a5a3a}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .trend-key i{display:inline-block;width:8px;height:8px;border-radius:50%;margin-right:5px;flex:0 0 auto}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .trend-key strong{margin-left:3px;color:#2d4a2d}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .trend-svg{display:block;width:100%;height:auto;overflow:visible}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .grid{stroke:#e0e8d8;stroke-width:1;vector-effect:non-scaling-stroke}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .grid.zero{stroke:#9ca59a;stroke-width:1.5}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .axis-y,#abd-leaders23sep26 .axis-x{fill:#5a7a5a;font-size:10px}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .trend-line{fill:none;stroke-width:3;stroke-linecap:round;stroke-linejoin:round;vector-effect:non-scaling-stroke}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .end-dot{stroke:#fff;stroke-width:1;vector-effect:non-scaling-stroke}
@media(max-width:600px){
#abd-leaders23sep26 .hdr{padding:20px 18px 17px}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .tabs{padding:0 8px}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .tab{padding:9px 6px;font-size:8px;letter-spacing:.04em}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .leader-cards,#abd-leaders23sep26 .signed-groups{grid-template-columns:1fr}
#abd-leaders23sep26 .signed-row{grid-template-columns:95px 1fr 34px}
}
</style>
<div class="abd-leaders23sep26-wrap">
<div id="abd-leaders23sep26">
<div class="hdr">
<div class="brand">
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HGUEJeha7AkHge6QLdj2ER8UsX8f8fPTpPUQx7nKBXSvEE6gIVC2teitfaoib1q+kA3CKgU82iCRpQkNtb8/L6T3bNA6sD9TAgb7p8Bi1/QDRf6EviE4c6dNCVD5v1imO/U7mw0cZpai9VeuXBMZI+EHvW8obMgLCdOkdfaQVQ2+Iz25T0xDAJC5x+KaveUJ36fsO8ELJDOvS+9St+jJ/Kv+FsslnnKJyQz4mhEC/QPTCoblEGLQjHtQ0KLPOiN5nOFdK9hgWwt6hu32+ISlULedTLC7pmfMw0/3IUKaWcrpI4SJOz/4CFv1ZF8pZTuISG2/4XiK7IATHtUcA7tUe4rl21H05mVimnXyYgj+vSIzpW8X5G6LBXSbovmQV9lw89VyIJSrTUYbhCQK6V/iSVx2LMjr/13ky3Yddp+vgtrxAesEBvSsovkF8XEfQnR1A7xKZBwT4iwfY7+nu6ywWdS5TJoMyeekW6JdKw0HPQjcWzvWqG3hqRo8dk1uu1niZSnUszjGAnxDbQ0ojYgB+fkPabnVvKrXa517j75a/GxNUgrBBczt/ibM65zh5+6Htte9GPkxDXq0arz2S7tkGHkAr3ppVfaDWZKpXI4XH375pHpDLQ0dK1A78S9habIJ4ppw7TP2r/H73dfeMrPHTwTklQ5/Qyd8Pg1aHYabxFxSxTzOEWB7vqRtvXmw7Zv8esbCsZxQlxTPqHTadWKfM80Rf4GPYc5x+689yX0GbpzRnVCCzzoLh7KiPPO+wrdPb+3iBNLFfOo4/yD9gLRouXn1/g5I92XbyiI99ZSzXrWmJpIFNIEdMP1oDNCWGAC77hHHEeilP4KESVfobgYRP4GnUasOu/WA7ly+jPkbokVuuH7O6TTor125IFu62J82fg9elMl813asQo86K4JW9Jv2D5Fb/ruWVvk+w4d5ZjAH+JGSX0KU4o4Sp9h5VfiEHkQO+urESeIzf7RU3palPg5wesL+5XFfZIi3+Ev/HRK845/59PGPyF13edWTdeJiv3QG02Rn7G/l/5aFijbhLbIQz89ygwxrK9MZ4FHG2aIiFSI2Het6wwx3r/xvzAsxGLCU7hGnF2RRoJ0cP9lOPfd557yuUGiGhX7M8K74PZmrxGb9VXPD3Rfwf6I32tNb5COT8l19nyH307UtWjv7poB/yB+K+nw926HTYlufb692263b8qZODZIhRQ02wedIoZ1R3ij+sj5lbEp8V1z+4SUec3psqfsT2BKCVfPG6ShNA1/pvir72f2t1NdwtVlRvho0zPd5sBLwnRKXhABLDl9dW+ye9LdE6KcG67fFlgQLtTtFreWnD+lrX46Www+2NF0C1uCdLB9Ufe3p/bZh6jTb++2222J/8biDjypV0ZSe2LaXgTDFPkh0Xbv6QLpRfvmGbHX+igh3f2MbbTeVeQT/DrHodHHPukEq+OutKn/ivi0xDcff0H/gIZj3Oye2Byj4R8X4WlDqBP/nL3GPh95DRXiSKd2/kQTXuhnSqNCOmHm/3TROs1xSKzfE/aIVMPI6bZKOfZrHodMjgia8SNZj2nlPaZlHCemdT4heAbe3hPH2dLGNHmhe0O0zqkud/hdIBY7v9OvzZVYR1WbimnXcQGyur7Ceu1GGLIr/rboqQzGcSrsVjHHEzqjwtjOex8jeegCBOK/00PdFroiWFGMqfKN60ZGa2QBp6HHI/KepswLep2dNfBdKW1DKJFO2tRYsZsGNZE3QtDXAqaihzSM8+T4ufc6Rjbo3/iYY51VbZZMa+rph8XMTuTfmG5DNvziHGcfrJhW4w1FxvT8gw+BZ5d+nyfSGT9TMa2w/X+jePjxxLvce1H6ZawLLMYUaurbcb4x7BW0G4YzisuYjtA7O/W1uHONLOwbCzHa9Ipp2O9PUdK6yFcMd/6tr/BvjIzJASzp33GuiNOpNCHnupPTfJMxfkf5gl+Bd4xFhDbE64uXjHuR+YYjUaHDs+tzhlcJG8a/CngMDuAzOnPobwzz/Wut2NYmY7iDgUuEEnhHxvDbeUa8Hdc35P0OTeOa4i4P+oFjF9RkDGueM2Mae6YzhukANugJvKNkWMKjuWLbBznwP4blJy7xHTkuWXsO/hIZw2znIHUYy02Spxir0H/mxJk3x0S+76sJNflM/EbVJxnDcgBubrPwkFfOMOrGjRZDi8m1PCKiOPS1MBukwxLTnvWMYdhynQfiqsNzOKEfWh0fw9lvceoDp66aLREBjRnt0WGsZAxj1PqCiIDPKEtG3A13LALvqJDv841hjuqfkMtiYhwoZAxnLc4Dw4tMuWm+odTxMV6R9nfWfs/dJ18AvxFf490g5SoClyMkOXGHS79x/XWcXcmIU+ifGJfA18mR9z2UnSCvyM2Sd8T9PlaIr4t5YenvDE/g67g6HlpE6omGg6hzIs8ugZhCcq7nPYU5+Es8InURk2N9QRpMHrgcGRLpiaETtEEcYeyCci0V8h0/Eo+/OOQVsYuE4dzZ4XxwbNE711Ea4uLRQ9ZIB/wzcXeooEMH9ZLIwz4k9zvhnOYrMnIdu6NsiztI4yNhjdM5T9/h+XMUhB9dPuzKMAZH2JQS8RcxiX1d3IugJenGG9Jx/pU4olQuUlcGLkffFIiNxCj2nTuoTUTesdpl4HP+rf7FYpw3i4WSvXH6XDUau/OsCDO6fNrlmRHvdiJtSkTsf0VWXft2mhtEED8Sr322pUJsyom9z0GXq89f6X499FAoEJv5iP96PuQJGeAmdLThd9vttsvfzRFjy4DbLglc4AER9TbCrjliunSIi2beBe1f7gIp8x0w67k87najguH15DXr5ZX9u6pa/N1qV66+WRPfaucF4jNSdPzGK2KTj7ufYxYiED98t3s+KeXxwt6um9ZnbP6wD1w9p8CNYj4b9jb8SA823FXk6yTIF3dPlwp4RpxSiY3Y+2bB3jgXtBe3DT++m1jC8deS1p4u9fLKvl5KxlMvvkiQel8g7yChne94RTpTa/bvoeqtdMMkrT0J3XzxCz/adXV9sUZHwt52F0hn60OHdA5t2D290ofIHyPd/XQVcMga6aFUmBGFIN39THZPnTf2hube0xSYsx9Rpyc+U+5+TqlefFN/D8eoMJ/RhroPPqzbsvbfFVavfXBK8+qUHsrxH1oibxiGYRhGYNosvDMMwzAMY0CYyBuGYRjGSDGRNwzDMIyRYiJvGIZhGCPFRN4wDMMwRsovoQtgGEYwtA7igdPbEA3/lErpxnjgknGAibxhTJcF3Q7xMIaFveMJY+F6wzAMwxgpJvKGYRiGMVJM5A3DMAxjpJjIG4ZhGMZIMZE3DMMwjJFiIm8YhmEYI8VE3jAMwzBGiom8YRiGYYwUE3nDMAzDGCkm8oZhGIYxUroea7tAzqZeAMnu52z3u1eg2j1r4HH334ZhGIZheOTddrtt+tk5kCEXEty0zOcFKHbPW8u/NQxDhxK9c83fKaVrtKexk2/JM3YRUfQ0DdfnyGj8D9oLPMDt7m+rXVpD4g65ratEOihbe656ql1d5piDMAzDUOXSSH6BjL5ve873BYkKrHtOty8SRITu2E9DGDq8Ija2wqI8vimxkfwUsJH8hDk3ks8QJ9C3wLNLs9zlERNzRNz/Be4xgffBDfAVGeHb3dSGYRg9ckrkM+BPdEVutssjU8yjDQuk4/E1cDmmygyZ0imRzpZhGIZxJcdEPkPE1xcxCL0TeI2ohdGOD8i7WAQuh2EYxuA5FPkFfgXesSKcU3cCb6H5eHDTOTaiNwzDuIK6yM+RPe0hmCGLr3yTYAIfKzNM6A3DMK6iLvJd9r/3yS3+t9cVmMDHTAibMAzDGA1uC90cWd0cWvA2yOjax1aqjDBTE0Z7fiPe7ZZ9kx78f6mYV4ltoZsCtoVuwrhjbZeEF3iQMizxM3rzkYfRDyvG40wSZB2IOxoamgutOzK6PPhpNCNF6j9hX/f1I7mPsWHfwSzZH9c9lU6nsSdlgPbjRvJvxCHyII4sUc4jw0bxQ2PIo/kFYnN39D8l9oqspSloXz8l4x7JL5A6T9H5nk9IHfq+nyOlXadXa1uwO8hKi0o5/Uto288zYjuq9vNuu92mwN9aGXRE26Gvse1yQ+M7wzosJ0GEPcPfWpcXJOpRNPx8yfhEPkHsRKNDdQ5X94/oTzfmTOM8jxDTAQkjs5/3xBkGvVNMe44J/BDRtIk+SRCR/RdxxD4dxS0SoaoIf/aEb1Kk0/Iv8AX/i4jrdZ9ju0KGRspI7SdWkU8Hmrahxw360zjXMEd64u5I5JDcIA6jJO4664MU+Z5/oxeVaMOM/THNedCSGE1IGbn9vCfOk8USxbRj/L5GM5LQBTjBHdIovwQuxyEfkKmpLHA5NHDnesTinA+pO+s0aEmMY8yRiNvo7ec98Sy4q6MZKrEw2nCJrYPmHMVfxNmOYH9HRBG4HH3iOlWfApejCTeIkOSBy2HscfYTOuLWhKvtp+l98mMiNqEwmhNTBy1BwnxDcBQg5SxCF6IHVsTdqTrFV+wExxiYnP1MUeQN41oWDHOHxpCFfo44udimRNrgLl8yofePm96ZnP1MUeSr0AUwBs3QLzS6R0YzQ8IJfIxzp22xy5f84+xnCNM7l7hFNCxp+gexivxGMe1KMW1DlzJw/kMXeMcXhrMl0TnooUVNzmFC75eScdnPDIlKNLKf98iBA7GheRBOpZi2oYuPOw1O4cRm6ALvKBiGyKwYl4N2OKE3dCkYt/1cbMPvifOoUM0ylYppG3rUz4AOQcl4BB7ku8Tu/JYMZ2FjF24Z7hqJITAF+7k49faeOEWvVEy7Qs5cNobFY8C8xzqajJkF8EfoQnjgnuFMnQwJs58dMYr8Bn2HXiinb/RPKJFPGfaK3KFShC6ARwqGMXUyJIrQBfBIwRn7eY/Mcz74Kk0DfDjzFbqL+4x+cTet+cYddmP4Zcm0IiczhrfjIWYypmc/xalfutX1MRlY7iGPN+L6zsZ58kD5LvF/UcXUmTPN0+HuseNv+2Cq9vOJE/bjRH5NHKP5B/ytfl9hc/ND4Jkwo+mEaVznGRsZ41rg2IY8dAFGgO8rYmMiP/aP7w8+EDKEvcHvfeFvjPPijjGxIdw7ygPlO3V8+oDY+ICN5q8lD12AgBy1n7rIV4RtYBn+90GXwGfPeRrNSQlzrkHCuLfexMqUR2GOPHQBBkyK2U9++A+/HPx/gVSUbwf3nXCrp4vdzz8D5W/8jIvqhNoXH8No8gXphFYcr4c5sk0oZRzHvUKYrWTPSD2vOT7IcHWc4mca4QPSyaw85DU2sgB5viDaFZP9uLs1AHi33W6PfbDAn9A/EEfYPEPm6ac6HxgLG6RBhDz45o0wdvCK2OAj7Z38HWLDsZzP/a7D3/iq9w1SzyvaRQ8zZKSkPVr8zvmOZkY7n6nVCdQ+oGpNuw63b/spaNdOM/zYzw+aekrkwY/QxyLwjgXy8sYyMhoaT4SZtqmT4T+q84o0/qKHtBLEhkOLfVuRT5F7s7W51sbmSP1q+sYN/e6bP+nkr+SZeNYQpJj9OH6wn3MX1GTIfLXGYrzNLu1MIe1rWCPG8hlbee+TZ+AjMhoNKfDgP2T8HelcFj2lVyHf4X8M6yyI1EMev3O9jbkFu5preWbYKXhtST3k8cAA7efSLXQF4oD6vMTmmX6dmgYFMiL6DXHCLyELM1KegW/Ar0gDLUMWZsccvyPgz0g4UqNj84jY8FBsN1VO/4F+z8Yo0N12nCqmPUYWyun3HXUuEG3R4j+RPxeuPyRFHFJXJ/iENLKy49/HwAI7fvJa3ojzUiTwF6r3ue4g1FWtbcP1mvOpr7S4f7sFc+Qdasyx9lnmKYTrK/Tmul8R36/RGa9Qtp82Iu9IkF5CinzxUwV8RRpASbeFRIbhmwI/C07/h9/dJCGEvq3IawkRSMSkUEo7Q69j+Cv9+M0piLzZz8/8Bqy7iPwx6iPcmEdqhnEOH6tzvxFmL/QcEQxfuwbaiHyK3qKpvhexHaNCZzTWl7iMXeRTzH6O8RkoLs3JN8WN2EtM4I1hkhisnxkAAArkSURBVKAvgM+EO+xkqic8+oiYaOWhPc9sXGbI9pPC5YV3hjEVUg95hD5k55F+F9H2RaKYto9BR6mUrol8MzRH2pVi2g7VTuLhiXeGMVV8rM6NIcq1BP4JXYgDSmQLpQZDFnk7r6MZa4ZtP1p53EK3hXeGMUZKdJ1qX4uo+qBEX0C6nHg3ZLQcaR92M/Y5+TGg9Y5+s3C9YQiaI/kX4hF46He/uCFoHZ6VKKVrxIXWNNrcwvWGIWguuisU0+7CI7JqeOz3NCTsRTI9+J274KctC/zWW+IxL+NHEoZvPwsTecPQn48PdcPiOUrCn2/fJwv2N34ljGc+OwldgImQsL8tLmE89mMjecNAd3XuK3GF6h0lwxf5O/YHc039HnGjPZOwHxN5w9AV+RhW1B8j1nJdYo7sEMgYsWOukYQuwMiYmv1YuN4w0A3XxyqmZegCtMQ55yXjX0tQJwldgJEwVfuxcL1hKBOryMNwFt9lyI6AIZTViI87ZPHrJO3HttAZhi4aN1f1RcwdEJDR1yNygcckHbRxFc5+/mLC9mMjecMwYmSBOOgpzJsa/bNARu++r1iODhN5wzBiY4GsGZjs6Mu4CrOfGhauNwwjJsxBG9dg9nOAibxhGLEwZ8ILpIyrMfs5gom8YRixUGBzqEZ3Vpj9/ITNyRtapEf+bU3cq801SEIX4AwxHd15x/BP4DPCkQL3oQsRIybyRl80PSJyg8yZPe6eGERfswyJYtrXoHnKXxfsZjzjGorQBYiVa0Q+7asQxuBOH3N0OUVqhozYPiH7nx+AnLDnu2vuF08V076GNHQBamSE2yp3eLfAqWjTpSiUhYrDkWH2c5I2Ip8gI7VMqzAT5wUR+4L4DykBEfac6xe53O+e77v0YhjZ94n2DXddSUMXoMbSUz6vSPSoRNpY1WPasUVGpsQY7EfN773bbreXPpMgztfmO/zxjNR5GbYYR3GnSGnM574iHckQnZyLDeEKfiO+jtsa3c76u4afWwD/KJYDpAO9RLc9adnPM9d3yGIu27X4sp8c3Suj1d7RpdX1OfAvJvC++QD8jRhVTCOEBdJ71VqwdYM02Ewp/XNsFNPOFNPuQkI80bhMOf0H9nuntYipjU6NO+X0nf1oCryq/ZwS+TnS0/+qmblxkU/Ie4gh5OvzkIk/8S+MmiPtTDHtLvgKbzYhVUz7AT91n3rIwzhOqpi2L/tR9e/HRN6N1mLp6U+dG0RcQwp9gv9TpP5Ev5dep1RMe0Y8Qj8nnrKAnp95xd/3TD3lY/yMVlTxFX+dYVU/dyjybr7VTgyKixlhhT6UTRT424KmPWeeK6fflJju004V0/a5Jc9nZzQmQk9TpIppr/C3CNiryNutT/EyI8wcfU64qM4Mf/tfS+X0bwgv9AlxheoTxbR9LXTMmK7PDB3t1fSFvuznDmX7qYt8TlwnYBk/c4PfEUpCeFH4gJ+w6xuyilaTJWGnXQriGcXDOEQ+95TPNWjadcgohmZbqhTTrpNrZ+BE3h1qYsTPPf7mAHPiEIXcUz6lcvouMhEizLliWp34xEMeS4YxitcMO491qiLxkMcSD9EQJ/I5cThzoxm5hzzmxLN18gY/zqTwkMct0pnwKfQZ8MVjfk1JBpo2yCjyD+U8+kIzqnFP+Ll5DbS/0wJPgxcn8pmPzIze+IC+E4uth555yGONrKrVxqfQZ8hOhRhJFNPWtF/tffd9oz11McZ7B3zYj5eB9Xvky9gofnhoT6/EJvK+bigrPOXjhF5zXrEgXoHX5h6dToRXB90T2iJ/T3z+4lpGYz9O5I3hkSqnH+O1n6mHPAoPeThukRP+8p7TTRHHHst0yylK5fT73o2SI+9rSAIPYguaJzqCtJsYDu3qk1HYz3vG92KmguaCjVhtwke5KuDJQz51vu7yzbjOqSwQZ/s34bc3xUBf0yIZ8n6GfAKo5rGsIML1D+0jjLH6GhiJ/bzHnMGQ0WogsS6k8VWuEHOMN0hovUKE+o5m33eBONY14mRjH7375pZuHSi3MKpC3ssQVtGfo/SUzx80q+87xM7/oXs02cdhNc5+lgzUft5tG1xDZ0TLR3Qa75I4Vw77vPWqJI4tZ/X7qkvE0bjOXQzlO0WTW+hSJOrgiw37a0LX/CgSye5Z7J5YRL1Pm3/D/1TD8+5nyf57HNrtK93mv1P82g9IlG9Q9tPmPnljOsQ6kvdJjn8Hcowb9g4jZlHvgq9jQx0zZK1JjOtNfPCI/0jPh4Ofx7hBRv5Fy7Sr9sW5msHZz6WrZg1jqpT4n5ufGj4WhBl78tAFOEPe4W8qzH4uYiJvHMPXkaBtqTznZ6dA6lOGLsCEqJDrU2PEjebbUvZbjPHxHusJDZlKKV3fYdSmVAHy++Y5z6lRhi7AxMhDF+AMK9pPFWrvGhg874l31GacZ4Oe6MVqE1WAPHP0L66ZMuak/VIB30MX4gQz2kfPzH4u8B7rSQ+VUjHtN/wc79qWMlC+d1jES4sKW/vgm5w42ze036r2htnPWd5jPaGhov3eYrOL+lYy31TY/LwmYzz7PGbeiPe+ki6jebOfM7hwvYUjh8WG6Yl8EUH+Y5ufj6Xdl+z3Uw+VWEfGpyiJ156XtNs3X2L2cxK3ut56QsNihf7iuJK4HFcRugBImDPW1clteSCujlweugBX8I1wUaZryInTnme0t4chR9q+o2g/TuQLht8Tmgob/HXKck/5XOKBeJxoRpyOsQ0vxOcUS+JdEHaOF+JpJ11YEk9Ep07bW+DWxBuZOIe6/dT3ycfW6I3jZPjb4lYQ3gFsiM+JZgxX6DfIcaAxbpPMCW9vbdgw/Fs83xB7iLHe8w6fj/F7nMLZj2pbrIv8GvismZlxNSFCrJnn/A7JiWcUXydjeEIfs8CDlGsoOxlcXVZhi9ELb8h567HZ8z3tL+FKMfv5gcMT7wrie9GG8EAYwV0DvwfIF2QKKeb1IhnD6Ri/IOHPWM9AcFTE76idg469LtuSEa6tn6Jt+3eRCbOfHceOtc0Y5tzYmAkl8I4V/jt/LwwjFFoAvxF3mPCJuEfwh6yR8sa08NPxwjgF3rFCbreMpe4/0P4WPmc/MbZJ7/Zz6uz6JTJCibk3NBW+ET5kDn7D064hDE2UYlv4s0FGZurzfgqskVBtTAuCHxi3wDtKpO5jsee8w9+4NhmT/bjOtlf7OXdBTYG8aDtNKAzPyAgxD1yOOhn6UR53f/bQROkNeVe/EodjeUDab8zTHZdwodffCTvgeAX+h99Fr6Gp23PoKdwuo3mIz36CdLYv3UJXIQX7SPgXPRWekPpOiXPEsEQMVqPRfGOYAl+nQr7DR8KIvbOfjHEsCgPpqCT490EbxCYT4jpTwCcVYkuhxP4VeQfX+MLQ9rMgoP282263bT4/RxzYgn3PaoEcXmC0Y8PecNe755HhCNwcEfwl17//Z8YlSnUSpI4y9NrJK2I7K9rVYQ58VSgPwDuldBOkLvuwu1O8IHVZtPibEhlx9o2LbMXCHBn4Zeh8X9if6OmePkmQsmfI9bYaRGU/bUXeMA5xYp/RrtG4hpwzTnE/Roo4yBS4vTKtF8QxFMQZ8fGBq8uU6+vzCanPR6Zjj9fiBN8N+rq+AzfgKWuPD/q0n2f2nZLqyrR6xUTe6JMEaTgJx/e3VrunxG4/BHEuycFzjHL3c41EesoTn5syc8TmFrX/np/4bFV7XBTN6Icm9Q8/1n8M0cvR2s//A8Kbqcmiq4QlAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC" alt="Abacus Data">
<span class="brand-sep"></span>
<span class="brand-lbl">Canadian Public Affairs Update · September 2026</span>
</div>
<div class="title">Party Leader Impressions: <em>Carney Posts a +31 Net Rating</em></div>
<div class="meta">n=2,744 Canadian adults · September 18–23, 2026 · MoE ±1.87%</div>
</div>
<div class="tabs" role="tablist">
<button class="tab on" data-tab="leaders23sep26-overall" role="tab" aria-selected="true">Overall Comparison</button>
<button class="tab" data-tab="leaders23sep26-trend" role="tab" aria-selected="false">Trend Line</button>
<button class="tab" data-tab="leaders23sep26-carney" role="tab" aria-selected="false">Subgroups: Carney</button>
<button class="tab" data-tab="leaders23sep26-poilievre" role="tab" aria-selected="false">Subgroups: Poilievre</button>
<button class="tab" data-tab="leaders23sep26-meth" role="tab" aria-selected="false">Methodology</button>
</div>
<div class="body">
<div class="panel on" id="leaders23sep26-overall" role="tabpanel">
<div class="q">Do you have a positive or negative impression of the following people?</div><div class="sec">Overall Party Leader Impressions</div><div class="callout"><strong>Mark Carney has the strongest overall impression rating, with 56% positive and a net score of +31.</strong> Pierre Poilievre is at -12, while Avi Lewis is at -9 and remains less familiar to 24% of Canadians.</div><div class="leader-cards"><article class="leader-card" data-leader="Mark Carney" style="border-top-color:#c62828"><h3>Mark Carney</h3><div class="leader-net pos" data-net="31">Net +31</div><div class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Positive" data-value="56" style="flex:56 0 0;background:#2e7d32" title="Positive: 56%"><span>56%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Neutral" data-value="17" style="flex:17 0 0;background:#9a9a2e" title="Neutral: 17%"><span>17%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Negative" data-value="25" style="flex:25 0 0;background:#e53935" title="Negative: 25%"><span>25%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Don't know enough to say" data-value="2" style="flex:2 0 0;background:#9ca3af" title="Don't know enough to say: 2%"><span>2%</span></i></div><div class="leader-legend"><span class="legend-key"><i style="background:#2e7d32"></i>Positive <strong>56%</strong></span><span class="legend-key"><i style="background:#9a9a2e"></i>Neutral <strong>17%</strong></span><span class="legend-key"><i style="background:#e53935"></i>Negative <strong>25%</strong></span><span class="legend-key"><i style="background:#9ca3af"></i>Don't know enough to say <strong>2%</strong></span></div></article><article class="leader-card" data-leader="Pierre Poilievre" style="border-top-color:#1565c0"><h3>Pierre Poilievre</h3><div class="leader-net neg" data-net="-12">Net -12</div><div class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Positive" data-value="34" style="flex:34 0 0;background:#2e7d32" title="Positive: 34%"><span>34%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Neutral" data-value="17" style="flex:17 0 0;background:#9a9a2e" title="Neutral: 17%"><span>17%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Negative" data-value="45" style="flex:45 0 0;background:#e53935" title="Negative: 45%"><span>45%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Don't know enough to say" data-value="4" style="flex:4 0 0;background:#9ca3af" title="Don't know enough to say: 4%"><span>4%</span></i></div><div class="leader-legend"><span class="legend-key"><i style="background:#2e7d32"></i>Positive <strong>34%</strong></span><span class="legend-key"><i style="background:#9a9a2e"></i>Neutral <strong>17%</strong></span><span class="legend-key"><i style="background:#e53935"></i>Negative <strong>45%</strong></span><span class="legend-key"><i style="background:#9ca3af"></i>Don't know enough to say <strong>4%</strong></span></div></article><article class="leader-card" data-leader="Avi Lewis" style="border-top-color:#e65100"><h3>Avi Lewis</h3><div class="leader-net neg" data-net="-9">Net -9</div><div class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Positive" data-value="18" style="flex:18 0 0;background:#2e7d32" title="Positive: 18%"><span>18%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Neutral" data-value="32" style="flex:32 0 0;background:#9a9a2e" title="Neutral: 32%"><span>32%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Negative" data-value="26" style="flex:26 0 0;background:#e53935" title="Negative: 26%"><span>26%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Don't know enough to say" data-value="24" style="flex:24 0 0;background:#9ca3af" title="Don't know enough to say: 24%"><span>24%</span></i></div><div class="leader-legend"><span class="legend-key"><i style="background:#2e7d32"></i>Positive <strong>18%</strong></span><span class="legend-key"><i style="background:#9a9a2e"></i>Neutral <strong>32%</strong></span><span class="legend-key"><i style="background:#e53935"></i>Negative <strong>26%</strong></span><span class="legend-key"><i style="background:#9ca3af"></i>Don't know enough to say <strong>24%</strong></span></div></article></div><div class="tbl-note">Net impression is shown as printed in the supplied slide. Component percentages are rounded, so positive minus negative may differ from the printed net by 1 point.</div>
</div>
<div class="panel" id="leaders23sep26-trend" role="tabpanel">
<div class="q">Net impressions of Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre over time.</div><div class="sec">Carney and Poilievre Net-Impression Trend</div><div class="callout"><strong>Mark Carney's Excel trend reaches +31 in the latest wave, up from +27 on September 10.</strong> Pierre Poilievre's trend endpoint is -11, compared with -13 on September 10.</div><div class="trend-card"><div class="trend-legend"><span class="trend-key"><i style="background:#c62828"></i>Mark Carney <strong>+31</strong></span><span class="trend-key"><i style="background:#1565c0"></i>Pierre Poilievre <strong>-11</strong></span></div><svg class="trend-svg" viewBox="0 0 840 420" role="img" aria-labelledby="leaders23sep26-trend-title leaders23sep26-trend-desc"><title id="leaders23sep26-trend-title">Net impressions of Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre</title><desc id="leaders23sep26-trend-desc">Trend with 48 observations showing net impression from negative to positive.</desc><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="364.00" x2="812" y2="364.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="368.00" text-anchor="end">-20</text><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="307.33" x2="812" y2="307.33"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="311.33" text-anchor="end">-10</text><line class="grid zero" x1="58" y1="250.67" x2="812" y2="250.67"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="254.67" text-anchor="end">0</text><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="194.00" x2="812" y2="194.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="198.00" text-anchor="end">+10</text><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="137.33" x2="812" y2="137.33"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="141.33" text-anchor="end">+20</text><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="80.67" x2="812" y2="80.67"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="84.67" text-anchor="end">+30</text><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="24.00" x2="812" y2="24.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="28.00" text-anchor="end">+40</text><text class="axis-x" x="58.00" y="387" text-anchor="start">Jan 2025</text><text class="axis-x" x="202.38" y="387" text-anchor="middle">Apr 2025</text><text class="axis-x" x="362.81" y="387" text-anchor="middle">Aug 2025</text><text class="axis-x" x="507.19" y="387" text-anchor="middle">Dec 2025</text><text class="axis-x" x="667.62" y="387" text-anchor="middle">May 2026</text><text class="axis-x" x="812.00" y="387" text-anchor="end">Sep 2026</text><polyline class="trend-line" data-series="Mark Carney" data-values="13.00000000,15.00000000,10.00000000,7.00000000,12.00000000,11.00000000,11.00000000,15.00000000,19.00000000,20.00000000,13.00000000,13.00000000,12.00000000,17.00000000,20.00000000,24.00000000,19.00000000,22.00000000,21.00000000,19.00000000,17.00000000,14.00000000,18.00000000,14.00000000,15.00000000,14.00000000,12.00000000,14.00000000,10.00000000,13.00000000,23.00000000,22.00000000,20.00000000,25.00000000,21.00000000,22.00000000,22.00000000,26.00000000,30.00000000,21.00000000,21.00000000,19.00000000,19.00000000,17.00000000,20.00000000,25.00000000,27.00000000,31.00000000" points="58.00,177.00 74.04,165.67 90.09,194.00 106.13,211.00 122.17,182.67 138.21,188.33 154.26,188.33 170.30,165.67 186.34,143.00 202.38,137.33 218.43,177.00 234.47,177.00 250.51,182.67 266.55,154.33 282.60,137.33 298.64,114.67 314.68,143.00 330.72,126.00 346.77,131.67 362.81,143.00 378.85,154.33 394.89,171.33 410.94,148.67 426.98,171.33 443.02,165.67 459.06,171.33 475.11,182.67 491.15,171.33 507.19,194.00 523.23,177.00 539.28,120.33 555.32,126.00 571.36,137.33 587.40,109.00 603.45,131.67 619.49,126.00 635.53,126.00 651.57,103.33 667.62,80.67 683.66,131.67 699.70,131.67 715.74,143.00 731.79,143.00 747.83,154.33 763.87,137.33 779.91,109.00 795.96,97.67 812.00,75.00" style="stroke:#c62828"></polyline><circle class="end-dot" cx="812.00" cy="75.00" r="4" style="fill:#c62828"></circle><polyline class="trend-line" data-series="Pierre Poilievre" data-values="0.00000000,-4.00000000,0.00000000,-7.00000000,-7.00000000,-5.00000000,-8.00000000,-3.00000000,-6.00000000,-5.00000000,-3.00000000,-7.00000000,-3.00000000,2.00000000,-2.00000000,-5.00000000,0.00000000,-4.00000000,-4.00000000,1.00000000,-2.00000000,-3.00000000,-1.00000000,-2.00000000,-3.00000000,-3.00000000,-7.00000000,-3.00000000,-5.00000000,-13.00000000,-13.00000000,-6.00000000,-7.00000000,-8.00000000,-4.00000000,-6.00000000,-7.00000000,-10.00000000,-6.00000000,-8.00000000,-6.00000000,-5.00000000,-7.00000000,-6.00000000,-11.00000000,-11.00000000,-13.00000000,-11.00000000" points="58.00,250.67 74.04,273.33 90.09,250.67 106.13,290.33 122.17,290.33 138.21,279.00 154.26,296.00 170.30,267.67 186.34,284.67 202.38,279.00 218.43,267.67 234.47,290.33 250.51,267.67 266.55,239.33 282.60,262.00 298.64,279.00 314.68,250.67 330.72,273.33 346.77,273.33 362.81,245.00 378.85,262.00 394.89,267.67 410.94,256.33 426.98,262.00 443.02,267.67 459.06,267.67 475.11,290.33 491.15,267.67 507.19,279.00 523.23,324.33 539.28,324.33 555.32,284.67 571.36,290.33 587.40,296.00 603.45,273.33 619.49,284.67 635.53,290.33 651.57,307.33 667.62,284.67 683.66,296.00 699.70,284.67 715.74,279.00 731.79,290.33 747.83,284.67 763.87,313.00 779.91,313.00 795.96,324.33 812.00,313.00" style="stroke:#1565c0"></polyline><circle class="end-dot" cx="812.00" cy="313.00" r="4" style="fill:#1565c0"></circle></svg></div><div class="tbl-note">Source: leadership.xlsx, Sheet1. The trend contains 48 observations. The workbook ends at Carney +31 and Poilievre -11 on September 23, 2026; the separately supplied overall slide reports Poilievre at -12.</div>
</div>
<div class="panel" id="leaders23sep26-carney" role="tabpanel">
<div class="q">Do you have a positive or negative impression of Mark Carney? (Net impression by subgroup.)</div><div class="sec">Mark Carney Net Impression by Subgroup</div><div class="callout"><strong>Mark Carney's net impression is positive across nearly every listed subgroup and peaks at +48 among Canadians aged 60 and over.</strong> It reaches +82 among 2025 Liberal voters and is -24 among 2025 Conservative voters.</div><div class="signed-groups"><section class="sg"><h3>Overall</h3><div class="signed-row" data-group="Overall" data-label="Canada" data-value="31"><span class="signed-lbl">Canada</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:15.50%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+31</strong></div></section><section class="sg"><h3>Region</h3><div class="signed-row" data-group="Region" data-label="BC" data-value="26"><span class="signed-lbl">BC</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:13.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+26</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Region" data-label="AB" data-value="20"><span class="signed-lbl">AB</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:10.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+20</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Region" data-label="SK/MB" data-value="20"><span class="signed-lbl">SK/MB</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:10.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+20</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Region" data-label="ON" data-value="31"><span class="signed-lbl">ON</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:15.50%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+31</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Region" data-label="QC" data-value="46"><span class="signed-lbl">QC</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:23.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+46</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Region" data-label="ATL" data-value="23"><span class="signed-lbl">ATL</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:11.50%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+23</strong></div></section><section class="sg"><h3>Gender</h3><div class="signed-row" data-group="Gender" data-label="Male" data-value="31"><span class="signed-lbl">Male</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:15.50%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+31</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Gender" data-label="Female" data-value="31"><span class="signed-lbl">Female</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:15.50%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+31</strong></div></section><section class="sg"><h3>Age</h3><div class="signed-row" data-group="Age" data-label="18 to 29" data-value="26"><span class="signed-lbl">18 to 29</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:13.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+26</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Age" data-label="30 to 44" data-value="18"><span class="signed-lbl">30 to 44</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:9.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+18</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Age" data-label="45 to 59" data-value="22"><span class="signed-lbl">45 to 59</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:11.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+22</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Age" data-label="60 and over" data-value="48"><span class="signed-lbl">60 and over</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:24.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+48</strong></div></section><section class="sg"><h3>Household income</h3><div class="signed-row" data-group="Household income" data-label="Under $35K" data-value="24"><span class="signed-lbl">Under $35K</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:12.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+24</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Household income" data-label="$35K to $50K" data-value="25"><span class="signed-lbl">$35K to $50K</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:12.50%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+25</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Household income" data-label="$50K to $75K" data-value="40"><span class="signed-lbl">$50K to $75K</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:20.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+40</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Household income" data-label="$75K to $100K" data-value="28"><span class="signed-lbl">$75K to $100K</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:14.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+28</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Household income" data-label="$100K+" data-value="34"><span class="signed-lbl">$100K+</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:17.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+34</strong></div></section><section class="sg"><h3>Community</h3><div class="signed-row" data-group="Community" data-label="Urban" data-value="31"><span class="signed-lbl">Urban</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:15.50%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+31</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Community" data-label="Suburban" data-value="33"><span class="signed-lbl">Suburban</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:16.50%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+33</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Community" data-label="Rural" data-value="27"><span class="signed-lbl">Rural</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:13.50%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+27</strong></div></section><section class="sg"><h3>2025 Vote</h3><div class="signed-row" data-group="2025 Vote" data-label="Liberal" data-value="82"><span class="signed-lbl">Liberal</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:41.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+82</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="2025 Vote" data-label="Conservative" data-value="-24"><span class="signed-lbl">Conservative</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill neg" style="right:50%;width:12.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val neg">-24</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="2025 Vote" data-label="NDP" data-value="32"><span class="signed-lbl">NDP</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:16.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+32</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="2025 Vote" data-label="BQ" data-value="36"><span class="signed-lbl">BQ</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:18.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+36</strong></div></section></div><div class="tbl-note">Positive values indicate a net-positive impression; negative values indicate a net-negative impression.</div>
</div>
<div class="panel" id="leaders23sep26-poilievre" role="tabpanel">
<div class="q">Do you have a positive or negative impression of Pierre Poilievre? (Net impression by subgroup.)</div><div class="sec">Pierre Poilievre Net Impression by Subgroup</div><div class="callout"><strong>Pierre Poilievre's net impression is positive in Alberta, among Canadians younger than 45, and among 2025 Conservative voters.</strong> His ratings are lowest among 2025 NDP voters at -63 and among Quebecers and Canadians aged 60 and over at -34.</div><div class="signed-groups"><section class="sg"><h3>Overall</h3><div class="signed-row" data-group="Overall" data-label="Canada" data-value="-12"><span class="signed-lbl">Canada</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill neg" style="right:50%;width:6.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val neg">-12</strong></div></section><section class="sg"><h3>Region</h3><div class="signed-row" data-group="Region" data-label="BC" data-value="-19"><span class="signed-lbl">BC</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill neg" style="right:50%;width:9.50%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val neg">-19</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Region" data-label="AB" data-value="10"><span class="signed-lbl">AB</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:5.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+10</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Region" data-label="SK/MB" data-value="-2"><span class="signed-lbl">SK/MB</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill neg" style="right:50%;width:1.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val neg">-2</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Region" data-label="ON" data-value="-4"><span class="signed-lbl">ON</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill neg" style="right:50%;width:2.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val neg">-4</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Region" data-label="QC" data-value="-34"><span class="signed-lbl">QC</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill neg" style="right:50%;width:17.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val neg">-34</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Region" data-label="ATL" data-value="-8"><span class="signed-lbl">ATL</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill neg" style="right:50%;width:4.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val neg">-8</strong></div></section><section class="sg"><h3>Gender</h3><div class="signed-row" data-group="Gender" data-label="Male" data-value="-10"><span class="signed-lbl">Male</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill neg" style="right:50%;width:5.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val neg">-10</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Gender" data-label="Female" data-value="-13"><span class="signed-lbl">Female</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill neg" style="right:50%;width:6.50%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val neg">-13</strong></div></section><section class="sg"><h3>Age</h3><div class="signed-row" data-group="Age" data-label="18 to 29" data-value="14"><span class="signed-lbl">18 to 29</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:7.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+14</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Age" data-label="30 to 44" data-value="7"><span class="signed-lbl">30 to 44</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:3.50%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+7</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Age" data-label="45 to 59" data-value="-14"><span class="signed-lbl">45 to 59</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill neg" style="right:50%;width:7.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val neg">-14</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Age" data-label="60 and over" data-value="-34"><span class="signed-lbl">60 and over</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill neg" style="right:50%;width:17.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val neg">-34</strong></div></section><section class="sg"><h3>Household income</h3><div class="signed-row" data-group="Household income" data-label="Under $35K" data-value="-28"><span class="signed-lbl">Under $35K</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill neg" style="right:50%;width:14.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val neg">-28</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Household income" data-label="$35K to $50K" data-value="-16"><span class="signed-lbl">$35K to $50K</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill neg" style="right:50%;width:8.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val neg">-16</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Household income" data-label="$50K to $75K" data-value="-15"><span class="signed-lbl">$50K to $75K</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill neg" style="right:50%;width:7.50%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val neg">-15</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Household income" data-label="$75K to $100K" data-value="-3"><span class="signed-lbl">$75K to $100K</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill neg" style="right:50%;width:1.50%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val neg">-3</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Household income" data-label="$100K+" data-value="-2"><span class="signed-lbl">$100K+</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill neg" style="right:50%;width:1.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val neg">-2</strong></div></section><section class="sg"><h3>Community</h3><div class="signed-row" data-group="Community" data-label="Urban" data-value="-8"><span class="signed-lbl">Urban</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill neg" style="right:50%;width:4.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val neg">-8</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Community" data-label="Suburban" data-value="-17"><span class="signed-lbl">Suburban</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill neg" style="right:50%;width:8.50%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val neg">-17</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="Community" data-label="Rural" data-value="-8"><span class="signed-lbl">Rural</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill neg" style="right:50%;width:4.00%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val neg">-8</strong></div></section><section class="sg"><h3>2025 Vote</h3><div class="signed-row" data-group="2025 Vote" data-label="Liberal" data-value="-57"><span class="signed-lbl">Liberal</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill neg" style="right:50%;width:28.50%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val neg">-57</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="2025 Vote" data-label="Conservative" data-value="63"><span class="signed-lbl">Conservative</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill pos" style="left:50%;width:31.50%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val pos">+63</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="2025 Vote" data-label="NDP" data-value="-63"><span class="signed-lbl">NDP</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill neg" style="right:50%;width:31.50%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val neg">-63</strong></div><div class="signed-row" data-group="2025 Vote" data-label="BQ" data-value="-57"><span class="signed-lbl">BQ</span><span class="signed-track"><i class="signed-fill neg" style="right:50%;width:28.50%"></i></span><strong class="signed-val neg">-57</strong></div></section></div><div class="tbl-note">Positive values indicate a net-positive impression; negative values indicate a net-negative impression. The supplied subgroup slide reports Canada at -12.</div>
</div>
<div class="panel" id="leaders23sep26-meth" role="tabpanel">
<div class="sec">Methodology</div><div class="meth"><p>The survey was conducted with <strong>2,744 Canadian adults</strong> from <strong>September 18 to 23, 2026</strong>.</p><p>A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey through a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.</p><p>The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is <strong>plus or minus 1.87 percentage points, 19 times out of 20</strong>.</p><p>The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Canada's population according to age, gender, educational attainment and region. Totals may not add to 100 because of rounding.</p><p>All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.</p><p>The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.</p></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="ftr">
<div class="ftr-l"><span class="ftr-b">Abacus Data</span> · Canadian Public Affairs Update · September 23, 2026 · n=2,744 · MoE ±1.87%</div>
<div class="ftr-r">abacusdata.ca</div>
</div>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Government Approval Rises to 60%</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Overall approval of the federal government has edged higher again.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Sixty percent approve of the job the federal government led by Mark Carney is doing, while 25% disapprove and 15% neither approve nor disapprove.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Two weeks ago, approval was 59% and disapproval was 27%.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The government’s net approval rating therefore moves from +32 to +35.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Twenty-four percent strongly approve and 36% somewhat approve. Eleven percent somewhat disapprove and 14% strongly disapprove.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The more detailed issue assessments continue to show a clear distinction between the government’s handling of Canada’s external relationships and its performance on domestic pressures.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Fifty-seven percent approve of the government’s handling of Canada’s relationship with the United States, the strongest result of any issue we measure.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Fifty-two percent approve of its handling of national defence and Canada’s security.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">After that, approval falls below 50%: 43% approve of the government’s handling of jobs and economic growth, 41% healthcare, 38% the cost of living and inflation, and 37% each on climate change and the environment, immigration, crime and public safety, and the federal deficit and government spending.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Housing affordability and supply remains the weakest-rated area, with 33% approving.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">So, while overall government approval has improved, Canadians continue to differentiate quite sharply between their assessment of the government overall, its management of the external challenges facing the country, and its handling of several domestic issues.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
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" alt="Abacus Data">
<span class="brand-sep"></span>
<span class="brand-lbl">Canadian Public Affairs Update · September 2026</span>
</div>
<div class="title">Government Approval: <em>Six in Ten Approve of the Federal Government</em></div>
<div class="meta">n=2,744 Canadian adults · September 18–23, 2026 · MoE ±1.87%</div>
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<div class="tabs" role="tablist">
<button class="tab on" data-tab="govapp23sep26-overall" role="tab" aria-selected="true">Overall</button>
<button class="tab" data-tab="govapp23sep26-trend" role="tab" aria-selected="false">Trend Line</button>
<button class="tab" data-tab="govapp23sep26-policy" role="tab" aria-selected="false">Approval by Policy Area</button>
<button class="tab" data-tab="govapp23sep26-meth" role="tab" aria-selected="false">Methodology</button>
</div>
<div class="body">
<div class="panel on" id="govapp23sep26-overall" role="tabpanel">
<div class="q">Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job the federal government led by Mark Carney is doing?</div><div class="sec">Overall Government Approval</div><div class="callout"><strong>Six in ten Canadians approve of the job the federal government led by Mark Carney is doing, up 1 point since September 10.</strong> One quarter disapprove, down 2 points.</div><div class="approval-cards"><article class="approval-card" style="border-top-color:#2e7d32"><h3>Approve</h3><div class="big" style="color:#2e7d32">60%</div><div class="small"><span class="chg-badge up">▲ +1</span> since September 10</div></article><article class="approval-card" style="border-top-color:#9a9a2e"><h3>Neither</h3><div class="big" style="color:#9a9a2e">15%</div><div class="small">Neither approve nor disapprove</div></article><article class="approval-card" style="border-top-color:#e53935"><h3>Disapprove</h3><div class="big" style="color:#e53935">25%</div><div class="small"><span class="chg-badge dn">▼ -2</span> since September 10</div></article></div><div class="bar-list"><div class="bar-row" data-label="Strongly approve" data-value="24"><div class="bar-lbl">Strongly approve</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:66.67%;background:#2e7d32"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">24%</div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="Somewhat approve" data-value="36"><div class="bar-lbl">Somewhat approve</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:100.00%;background:#7dc242"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">36%</div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="Neither approve nor disapprove" data-value="15"><div class="bar-lbl">Neither approve nor disapprove</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:41.67%;background:#9a9a2e"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">15%</div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="Somewhat disapprove" data-value="11"><div class="bar-lbl">Somewhat disapprove</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:30.56%;background:#e53935"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">11%</div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="Strongly disapprove" data-value="14"><div class="bar-lbl">Strongly disapprove</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:38.89%;background:#c62828"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">14%</div></div></div><div class="tbl-note">Approve combines strongly and somewhat approve. Disapprove combines somewhat and strongly disapprove. Changes are from September 10, 2026.</div>
</div>
<div class="panel" id="govapp23sep26-trend" role="tabpanel">
<div class="q">Approval and disapproval of the federal government over time.</div><div class="sec">Government Approval Trend</div><div class="callout"><strong>Government approval reaches 60% in the September 23 Excel wave, while disapproval falls to 25%.</strong> Both endpoints reconcile to the supplied overall results after rounding.</div><div class="trend-card"><div class="trend-legend"><span class="trend-key"><i style="background:#2e7d32"></i>Approve <strong>60%</strong></span><span class="trend-key"><i style="background:#e53935"></i>Disapprove <strong>25%</strong></span></div><svg class="trend-svg" viewBox="0 0 840 420" role="img" aria-labelledby="govapp23sep26-trend-title govapp23sep26-trend-desc"><title id="govapp23sep26-trend-title">Federal government approval trend</title><desc id="govapp23sep26-trend-desc">Trend with 55 observations for approval and disapproval.</desc><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="364.00" x2="812" y2="364.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="368.00" text-anchor="end">20%</text><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="296.00" x2="812" y2="296.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="300.00" text-anchor="end">30%</text><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="228.00" x2="812" y2="228.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="232.00" text-anchor="end">40%</text><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="160.00" x2="812" y2="160.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="164.00" text-anchor="end">50%</text><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="92.00" x2="812" y2="92.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="96.00" text-anchor="end">60%</text><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="24.00" x2="812" y2="24.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="28.00" text-anchor="end">70%</text><text class="axis-x" x="58.00" y="387" text-anchor="start">Jul 2024</text><text class="axis-x" x="211.59" y="387" text-anchor="middle">Dec 2024</text><text class="axis-x" x="365.19" y="387" text-anchor="middle">Jun 2025</text><text class="axis-x" x="504.81" y="387" text-anchor="middle">Oct 2025</text><text class="axis-x" x="658.41" y="387" text-anchor="middle">Apr 2026</text><text class="axis-x" x="812.00" y="387" text-anchor="end">Sep 2026</text><polyline class="trend-line" data-series="Approve" data-values="25.00000000,26.72980781,25.00000000,24.00000000,24.70241710,25.50625111,24.48859930,24.57011047,24.66458857,24.44675016,25.00000000,22.00000000,21.00000000,22.00000000,23.00000000,27.33082510,28.15286709,34.00000000,39.18485023,41.00000000,49.00000000,50.33047173,53.38613157,52.18848081,51.95221504,51.63914558,49.60362292,49.19214924,48.47329878,50.00000000,46.14534249,48.00000000,46.81690873,44.17939048,47.58246793,47.17153887,47.28329105,54.00000000,51.77789293,52.48534937,55.59198774,53.82871043,53.70513356,54.29855784,56.73477950,58.56829598,52.43197569,54.90468785,53.94629851,52.45396593,52.18979452,52.38198116,56.13968200,58.51254706,60.13829451" points="58.00,330.00 71.96,318.24 85.93,330.00 99.89,336.80 113.85,332.02 127.81,326.56 141.78,333.48 155.74,332.92 169.70,332.28 183.67,333.76 197.63,330.00 211.59,350.40 225.56,357.20 239.52,350.40 253.48,343.60 267.44,314.15 281.41,308.56 295.37,268.80 309.33,233.54 323.30,221.20 337.26,166.80 351.22,157.75 365.19,136.97 379.15,145.12 393.11,146.72 407.07,148.85 421.04,162.70 435.00,165.49 448.96,170.38 462.93,160.00 476.89,186.21 490.85,173.60 504.81,181.65 518.78,199.58 532.74,176.44 546.70,179.23 560.67,178.47 574.63,132.80 588.59,147.91 602.56,143.10 616.52,121.97 630.48,133.96 644.44,134.81 658.41,130.77 672.37,114.20 686.33,101.74 700.30,143.46 714.26,126.65 728.22,133.17 742.19,143.31 756.15,145.11 770.11,143.80 784.07,118.25 798.04,102.11 812.00,91.06" style="stroke:#2e7d32"></polyline><circle class="end-dot" cx="812.00" cy="91.06" r="4" style="fill:#2e7d32"></circle><polyline class="trend-line" data-series="Disapprove" data-values="59.00000000,57.47759815,58.00000000,62.00000000,59.29589513,58.86182979,61.30725170,61.56931707,60.85758413,61.00427131,61.00000000,62.00000000,63.00000000,64.00000000,60.00000000,56.00398614,55.74687353,50.00000000,25.46310088,25.00000000,24.00000000,23.70124833,22.87180656,25.25374732,24.84489363,26.69991683,27.05880289,29.69256985,30.29945028,30.00000000,31.16759804,32.00000000,33.64276706,34.46534615,31.59411440,34.61833894,33.75057793,31.00000000,28.70028195,29.82170414,28.47982225,29.69112470,30.07202460,28.88796001,27.91475070,26.64675293,31.12928594,30.47091139,31.12855459,31.71331188,32.06347067,30.99209078,28.78990293,26.67861313,24.84564089" points="58.00,98.80 71.96,109.15 85.93,105.60 99.89,78.40 113.85,96.79 127.81,99.74 141.78,83.11 155.74,81.33 169.70,86.17 183.67,85.17 197.63,85.20 211.59,78.40 225.56,71.60 239.52,64.80 253.48,92.00 267.44,119.17 281.41,120.92 295.37,160.00 309.33,326.85 323.30,330.00 337.26,336.80 351.22,338.83 365.19,344.47 379.15,328.27 393.11,331.05 407.07,318.44 421.04,316.00 435.00,298.09 448.96,293.96 462.93,296.00 476.89,288.06 490.85,282.40 504.81,271.23 518.78,265.64 532.74,285.16 546.70,264.60 560.67,270.50 574.63,289.20 588.59,304.84 602.56,297.21 616.52,306.34 630.48,298.10 644.44,295.51 658.41,303.56 672.37,310.18 686.33,318.80 700.30,288.32 714.26,292.80 728.22,288.33 742.19,284.35 756.15,281.97 770.11,289.25 784.07,304.23 798.04,318.59 812.00,331.05" style="stroke:#e53935"></polyline><circle class="end-dot" cx="812.00" cy="331.05" r="4" style="fill:#e53935"></circle></svg></div><div class="tbl-note">Source: approval.xlsx, Sheet1. The trend contains 55 observations and ends September 23, 2026.</div>
</div>
<div class="panel" id="govapp23sep26-policy" role="tabpanel">
<div class="q">Thinking about some specific issues, do you approve or disapprove of how the federal government led by Mark Carney is handling each of the following?</div><div class="sec">Approval by Policy Area</div><div class="callout"><strong>Approval is highest for Canada's relationship with the United States at 57%, followed by national defence and security at 52%.</strong> Housing affordability and supply receives the lowest printed net approval at 33%.</div><div class="policy-legend"><span class="legend-key"><i style="background:#2e7d32"></i>Strongly approve</span><span class="legend-key"><i style="background:#7dc242"></i>Somewhat approve</span><span class="legend-key"><i style="background:#9a9a2e"></i>Neither approve nor disapprove</span><span class="legend-key"><i style="background:#e53935"></i>Somewhat disapprove</span><span class="legend-key"><i style="background:#c62828"></i>Strongly disapprove</span></div><div class="stack-list"><div class="stack-row" data-row="Canada's relationship with the United States"><span class="stack-lbl">Canada's relationship with the United States</span><span class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Strongly approve" data-value="28" style="flex:28 0 0;background:#2e7d32" title="Strongly approve: 28%"><span>28%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Somewhat approve" data-value="29" style="flex:29 0 0;background:#7dc242" title="Somewhat approve: 29%"><span>29%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Neither approve nor disapprove" data-value="15" style="flex:15 0 0;background:#9a9a2e" title="Neither approve nor disapprove: 15%"><span>15%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Somewhat disapprove" data-value="12" style="flex:12 0 0;background:#e53935" title="Somewhat disapprove: 12%"><span>12%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Strongly disapprove" data-value="17" style="flex:17 0 0;background:#c62828" title="Strongly disapprove: 17%"><span>17%</span></i></span><strong class="net-now">57%</strong></div><div class="stack-row" data-row="National defence and Canada's security"><span class="stack-lbl">National defence and Canada's security</span><span class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Strongly approve" data-value="18" style="flex:18 0 0;background:#2e7d32" title="Strongly approve: 18%"><span>18%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Somewhat approve" data-value="35" style="flex:35 0 0;background:#7dc242" title="Somewhat approve: 35%"><span>35%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Neither approve nor disapprove" data-value="24" style="flex:24 0 0;background:#9a9a2e" title="Neither approve nor disapprove: 24%"><span>24%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Somewhat disapprove" data-value="10" style="flex:10 0 0;background:#e53935" title="Somewhat disapprove: 10%"><span>10%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Strongly disapprove" data-value="13" style="flex:13 0 0;background:#c62828" title="Strongly disapprove: 13%"><span>13%</span></i></span><strong class="net-now">52%</strong></div><div class="stack-row" data-row="Jobs and economic growth"><span class="stack-lbl">Jobs and economic growth</span><span class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Strongly approve" data-value="10" style="flex:10 0 0;background:#2e7d32" title="Strongly approve: 10%"><span>10%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Somewhat approve" data-value="33" style="flex:33 0 0;background:#7dc242" title="Somewhat approve: 33%"><span>33%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Neither approve nor disapprove" data-value="28" style="flex:28 0 0;background:#9a9a2e" title="Neither approve nor disapprove: 28%"><span>28%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Somewhat disapprove" data-value="14" style="flex:14 0 0;background:#e53935" title="Somewhat disapprove: 14%"><span>14%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Strongly disapprove" data-value="15" style="flex:15 0 0;background:#c62828" title="Strongly disapprove: 15%"><span>15%</span></i></span><strong class="net-now">43%</strong></div><div class="stack-row" data-row="Access to health care"><span class="stack-lbl">Access to health care</span><span class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Strongly approve" data-value="10" style="flex:10 0 0;background:#2e7d32" title="Strongly approve: 10%"><span>10%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Somewhat approve" data-value="30" style="flex:30 0 0;background:#7dc242" title="Somewhat approve: 30%"><span>30%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Neither approve nor disapprove" data-value="31" style="flex:31 0 0;background:#9a9a2e" title="Neither approve nor disapprove: 31%"><span>31%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Somewhat disapprove" data-value="17" style="flex:17 0 0;background:#e53935" title="Somewhat disapprove: 17%"><span>17%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Strongly disapprove" data-value="14" style="flex:14 0 0;background:#c62828" title="Strongly disapprove: 14%"><span>14%</span></i></span><strong class="net-now">41%</strong></div><div class="stack-row" data-row="The cost of living and inflation"><span class="stack-lbl">The cost of living and inflation</span><span class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Strongly approve" data-value="10" style="flex:10 0 0;background:#2e7d32" title="Strongly approve: 10%"><span>10%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Somewhat approve" data-value="27" style="flex:27 0 0;background:#7dc242" title="Somewhat approve: 27%"><span>27%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Neither approve nor disapprove" data-value="25" style="flex:25 0 0;background:#9a9a2e" title="Neither approve nor disapprove: 25%"><span>25%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Somewhat disapprove" data-value="19" style="flex:19 0 0;background:#e53935" title="Somewhat disapprove: 19%"><span>19%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Strongly disapprove" data-value="19" style="flex:19 0 0;background:#c62828" title="Strongly disapprove: 19%"><span>19%</span></i></span><strong class="net-now">38%</strong></div><div class="stack-row" data-row="Climate change and the environment"><span class="stack-lbl">Climate change and the environment</span><span class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Strongly approve" data-value="9" style="flex:9 0 0;background:#2e7d32" title="Strongly approve: 9%"><span>9%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Somewhat approve" data-value="28" style="flex:28 0 0;background:#7dc242" title="Somewhat approve: 28%"><span>28%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Neither approve nor disapprove" data-value="34" style="flex:34 0 0;background:#9a9a2e" title="Neither approve nor disapprove: 34%"><span>34%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Somewhat disapprove" data-value="15" style="flex:15 0 0;background:#e53935" title="Somewhat disapprove: 15%"><span>15%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Strongly disapprove" data-value="14" style="flex:14 0 0;background:#c62828" title="Strongly disapprove: 14%"><span>14%</span></i></span><strong class="net-now">37%</strong></div><div class="stack-row" data-row="Immigration"><span class="stack-lbl">Immigration</span><span class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Strongly approve" data-value="10" style="flex:10 0 0;background:#2e7d32" title="Strongly approve: 10%"><span>10%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Somewhat approve" data-value="27" style="flex:27 0 0;background:#7dc242" title="Somewhat approve: 27%"><span>27%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Neither approve nor disapprove" data-value="27" style="flex:27 0 0;background:#9a9a2e" title="Neither approve nor disapprove: 27%"><span>27%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Somewhat disapprove" data-value="16" style="flex:16 0 0;background:#e53935" title="Somewhat disapprove: 16%"><span>16%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Strongly disapprove" data-value="20" style="flex:20 0 0;background:#c62828" title="Strongly disapprove: 20%"><span>20%</span></i></span><strong class="net-now">37%</strong></div><div class="stack-row" data-row="Crime and public safety"><span class="stack-lbl">Crime and public safety</span><span class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Strongly approve" data-value="10" style="flex:10 0 0;background:#2e7d32" title="Strongly approve: 10%"><span>10%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Somewhat approve" data-value="26" style="flex:26 0 0;background:#7dc242" title="Somewhat approve: 26%"><span>26%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Neither approve nor disapprove" data-value="32" style="flex:32 0 0;background:#9a9a2e" title="Neither approve nor disapprove: 32%"><span>32%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Somewhat disapprove" data-value="16" style="flex:16 0 0;background:#e53935" title="Somewhat disapprove: 16%"><span>16%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Strongly disapprove" data-value="16" style="flex:16 0 0;background:#c62828" title="Strongly disapprove: 16%"><span>16%</span></i></span><strong class="net-now">37%</strong></div><div class="stack-row" data-row="The federal deficit and government spending"><span class="stack-lbl">The federal deficit and government spending</span><span class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Strongly approve" data-value="10" style="flex:10 0 0;background:#2e7d32" title="Strongly approve: 10%"><span>10%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Somewhat approve" data-value="26" style="flex:26 0 0;background:#7dc242" title="Somewhat approve: 26%"><span>26%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Neither approve nor disapprove" data-value="28" style="flex:28 0 0;background:#9a9a2e" title="Neither approve nor disapprove: 28%"><span>28%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Somewhat disapprove" data-value="17" style="flex:17 0 0;background:#e53935" title="Somewhat disapprove: 17%"><span>17%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Strongly disapprove" data-value="19" style="flex:19 0 0;background:#c62828" title="Strongly disapprove: 19%"><span>19%</span></i></span><strong class="net-now">37%</strong></div><div class="stack-row" data-row="Housing affordability and supply"><span class="stack-lbl">Housing affordability and supply</span><span class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Strongly approve" data-value="9" style="flex:9 0 0;background:#2e7d32" title="Strongly approve: 9%"><span>9%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Somewhat approve" data-value="25" style="flex:25 0 0;background:#7dc242" title="Somewhat approve: 25%"><span>25%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Neither approve nor disapprove" data-value="28" style="flex:28 0 0;background:#9a9a2e" title="Neither approve nor disapprove: 28%"><span>28%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Somewhat disapprove" data-value="20" style="flex:20 0 0;background:#e53935" title="Somewhat disapprove: 20%"><span>20%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Strongly disapprove" data-value="18" style="flex:18 0 0;background:#c62828" title="Strongly disapprove: 18%"><span>18%</span></i></span><strong class="net-now">33%</strong></div></div><div class="table-wrap"><table class="sub-tbl policy-net"><tr><th>Policy area</th><th>Now</th><th>Aug 26</th><th>Change</th></tr><tr data-row="Canada's relationship with the United States"><td>Canada's relationship with the United States</td><td data-column="Now" data-value="57">57%</td><td data-column="Aug 26" data-value="50">50%</td><td data-column="Change" data-value="7"><span class="chg-badge up">▲ +7</span></td></tr><tr data-row="National defence and Canada's security"><td>National defence and Canada's security</td><td data-column="Now" data-value="52">52%</td><td data-column="Aug 26" data-value="50">50%</td><td data-column="Change" data-value="2"><span class="chg-badge up">▲ +2</span></td></tr><tr data-row="Jobs and economic growth"><td>Jobs and economic growth</td><td data-column="Now" data-value="43">43%</td><td data-column="Aug 26" data-value="41">41%</td><td data-column="Change" data-value="2"><span class="chg-badge up">▲ +2</span></td></tr><tr data-row="Access to health care"><td>Access to health care</td><td data-column="Now" data-value="41">41%</td><td data-column="Aug 26" data-value="38">38%</td><td data-column="Change" data-value="3"><span class="chg-badge up">▲ +3</span></td></tr><tr data-row="The cost of living and inflation"><td>The cost of living and inflation</td><td data-column="Now" data-value="38">38%</td><td data-column="Aug 26" data-value="35">35%</td><td data-column="Change" data-value="3"><span class="chg-badge up">▲ +3</span></td></tr><tr data-row="Climate change and the environment"><td>Climate change and the environment</td><td data-column="Now" data-value="37">37%</td><td data-column="Aug 26" data-value="33">33%</td><td data-column="Change" data-value="4"><span class="chg-badge up">▲ +4</span></td></tr><tr data-row="Immigration"><td>Immigration</td><td data-column="Now" data-value="37">37%</td><td data-column="Aug 26" data-value="35">35%</td><td data-column="Change" data-value="2"><span class="chg-badge up">▲ +2</span></td></tr><tr data-row="Crime and public safety"><td>Crime and public safety</td><td data-column="Now" data-value="37">37%</td><td data-column="Aug 26" data-value="34">34%</td><td data-column="Change" data-value="3"><span class="chg-badge up">▲ +3</span></td></tr><tr data-row="The federal deficit and government spending"><td>The federal deficit and government spending</td><td data-column="Now" data-value="37">37%</td><td data-column="Aug 26" data-value="31">31%</td><td data-column="Change" data-value="6"><span class="chg-badge up">▲ +6</span></td></tr><tr data-row="Housing affordability and supply"><td>Housing affordability and supply</td><td data-column="Now" data-value="33">33%</td><td data-column="Aug 26" data-value="32">32%</td><td data-column="Change" data-value="1"><span class="chg-badge up">▲ +1</span></td></tr></table></div><div class="tbl-note">The right-hand figure on each stacked bar and the table report the printed net-approval value. These may differ by 1 point from the sum of rounded component values. The climate-change strongly disapprove value of 14% was explicitly confirmed by the user.</div>
</div>
<div class="panel" id="govapp23sep26-meth" role="tabpanel">
<div class="sec">Methodology</div><div class="meth"><p>The survey was conducted with <strong>2,744 Canadian adults</strong> from <strong>September 18 to 23, 2026</strong>.</p><p>A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey through a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.</p><p>The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is <strong>plus or minus 1.87 percentage points, 19 times out of 20</strong>.</p><p>The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Canada's population according to age, gender, educational attainment and region. Totals may not add to 100 because of rounding.</p><p>All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.</p><p>The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.</p></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="ftr">
<div class="ftr-l"><span class="ftr-b">Abacus Data</span> · Canadian Public Affairs Update · September 23, 2026 · n=2,744 · MoE ±1.87%</div>
<div class="ftr-r">abacusdata.ca</div>
</div>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Optimism About Canada Continues to Rise</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Forty-eight percent of Canadians now believe the country is heading in the right direction. Thirty-nine percent think Canada is off on the wrong track.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Two weeks ago, 45% said right direction and 41% said wrong track.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The movement is not large, but it continues a broader upward trend in national optimism.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And once again, the contrast with perceptions of the world and the United States is substantial.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Only 16% believe the world is heading in the right direction while 71% think it is on the wrong track.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">For the United States, 12% say right direction and 81% wrong track.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The gap between optimism about Canada and optimism about the world is therefore now 32 points, compared with 30 points two weeks ago.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There are some notable differences across the country. Fifty-four percent in British Columbia believe Canada is heading in the right direction, as do 51% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 49% in Ontario, 46% in Quebec and 51% in Atlantic Canada. Alberta is lower at 40%.</p>
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" alt="Abacus Data">
<span class="brand-sep"></span>
<span class="brand-lbl">Canadian Public Affairs Update · September 2026</span>
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<div class="title">Mood of the Country: <em>48% Say Canada Is Headed in the Right Direction</em></div>
<div class="meta">n=2,744 Canadian adults · September 18–23, 2026 · MoE ±1.87%</div>
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<div class="tabs" role="tablist">
<button class="tab on" data-tab="mood23sep26-comparison" role="tab" aria-selected="true">Comparison</button>
<button class="tab" data-tab="mood23sep26-region" role="tab" aria-selected="false">Regional Breakout</button>
<button class="tab" data-tab="mood23sep26-trend" role="tab" aria-selected="false">Trend Lines</button>
<button class="tab" data-tab="mood23sep26-meth" role="tab" aria-selected="false">Methodology</button>
</div>
<div class="body">
<div class="panel on" id="mood23sep26-comparison" role="tabpanel">
<div class="q">Generally speaking, do you think things are headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track?</div><div class="sec">Direction of Canada, the World, and the USA</div><div class="callout"><strong>Canadians are much more positive about Canada's direction than about conditions beyond the country.</strong> Forty-eight per cent say Canada is headed in the right direction, compared with 16% for the world and 12% for the USA.</div><div class="direction-cards"><article class="direction-card" data-geography="Canada"><h3>Canada</h3><div class="direction-row" data-series="Right direction" data-percent="48"><span>Right direction</span><div class="direction-track"><i style="background:#2e7d32;width:48%"></i></div><strong style="color:#2e7d32">48%</strong></div><div class="direction-row" data-series="Wrong track" data-percent="39"><span>Wrong track</span><div class="direction-track"><i style="background:#e53935;width:39%"></i></div><strong style="color:#e53935">39%</strong></div></article><article class="direction-card" data-geography="The world"><h3>The world</h3><div class="direction-row" data-series="Right direction" data-percent="16"><span>Right direction</span><div class="direction-track"><i style="background:#2e7d32;width:16%"></i></div><strong style="color:#2e7d32">16%</strong></div><div class="direction-row" data-series="Wrong track" data-percent="71"><span>Wrong track</span><div class="direction-track"><i style="background:#e53935;width:71%"></i></div><strong style="color:#e53935">71%</strong></div></article><article class="direction-card" data-geography="The USA"><h3>The USA</h3><div class="direction-row" data-series="Right direction" data-percent="12"><span>Right direction</span><div class="direction-track"><i style="background:#2e7d32;width:12%"></i></div><strong style="color:#2e7d32">12%</strong></div><div class="direction-row" data-series="Wrong track" data-percent="81"><span>Wrong track</span><div class="direction-track"><i style="background:#e53935;width:81%"></i></div><strong style="color:#e53935">81%</strong></div></article></div><div class="tbl-note">Right direction and wrong track are shown separately. Remaining responses are neither, unsure, or another unreported response category.</div>
</div>
<div class="panel" id="mood23sep26-region" role="tabpanel">
<div class="q">Generally speaking, do you think things are headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track? (Canada right direction by region.)</div><div class="sec">Canada Right Direction by Region</div><div class="callout"><strong>Right-direction sentiment is highest in British Columbia at 54% and lowest in Alberta at 40%.</strong> Saskatchewan and Manitoba and Atlantic Canada are each at 51%, while Ontario is at 49% and Quebec at 46%.</div><div class="bar-list"><div class="bar-row" data-label="Canada" data-value="48"><div class="bar-lbl">Canada</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:88.89%;background:#2e7d32"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">48%</div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="BC" data-value="54"><div class="bar-lbl">BC</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:100.00%;background:#2e7d32"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">54%</div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="AB" data-value="40"><div class="bar-lbl">AB</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:74.07%;background:#2e7d32"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">40%</div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="SK/MB" data-value="51"><div class="bar-lbl">SK/MB</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:94.44%;background:#2e7d32"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">51%</div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="ON" data-value="49"><div class="bar-lbl">ON</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:90.74%;background:#2e7d32"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">49%</div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="QC" data-value="46"><div class="bar-lbl">QC</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:85.19%;background:#2e7d32"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">46%</div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="ATL" data-value="51"><div class="bar-lbl">ATL</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:94.44%;background:#2e7d32"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">51%</div></div></div><div class="tbl-note">Canada is shown as a national reference. Regional values report the percentage saying Canada is headed in the right direction.</div>
</div>
<div class="panel" id="mood23sep26-trend" role="tabpanel">
<div class="q">Right-direction sentiment for Canada and the world over time.</div><div class="sec">Canada and World Right-Direction Trends</div><div class="callout"><strong>Canada's right-direction measure reaches 48% in the latest Excel wave, up from 45% on September 10.</strong> The world right-direction measure reaches 16%, up from 15%.</div><div class="trend-card"><div class="trend-legend"><span class="trend-key"><i style="background:#2e7d32"></i>Canada right direction <strong>48%</strong></span><span class="trend-key"><i style="background:#1565c0"></i>World right direction <strong>16%</strong></span></div><svg class="trend-svg" viewBox="0 0 840 420" role="img" aria-labelledby="mood23sep26-trend-title mood23sep26-trend-desc"><title id="mood23sep26-trend-title">Canada and world right-direction trends</title><desc id="mood23sep26-trend-desc">Trend with 143 observations for Canada and world right-direction sentiment.</desc><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="364.00" x2="812" y2="364.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="368.00" text-anchor="end">10%</text><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="279.00" x2="812" y2="279.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="283.00" text-anchor="end">20%</text><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="194.00" x2="812" y2="194.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="198.00" text-anchor="end">30%</text><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="109.00" x2="812" y2="109.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="113.00" text-anchor="end">40%</text><line class="grid" x1="58" y1="24.00" x2="812" y2="24.00"></line><text class="axis-y" x="50" y="28.00" text-anchor="end">50%</text><text class="axis-x" x="58.00" y="387" text-anchor="start">Feb-20</text><text class="axis-x" x="206.68" y="387" text-anchor="middle">Aug 2021</text><text class="axis-x" x="360.66" y="387" text-anchor="middle">Jul 2023</text><text class="axis-x" x="509.34" y="387" text-anchor="middle">Sep 2024</text><text class="axis-x" x="663.32" y="387" text-anchor="middle">Aug 2025</text><text class="axis-x" x="812.00" y="387" text-anchor="end">Sep 2026</text><polyline class="trend-line" data-series="Canada right direction" 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440.31,234.87 445.62,236.50 450.93,230.78 456.24,229.71 461.55,236.50 466.86,236.50 472.17,228.00 477.48,219.50 482.79,236.50 488.10,253.50 493.41,238.02 498.72,239.37 504.03,236.50 509.34,236.50 514.65,218.41 519.96,239.89 525.27,239.27 530.58,223.60 535.89,240.93 541.20,258.58 546.51,262.00 551.82,287.50 557.13,253.50 562.44,245.00 567.75,253.50 573.06,242.63 578.37,192.76 583.68,194.00 588.99,191.80 594.30,191.80 599.61,210.72 604.92,193.17 610.23,194.00 615.54,177.00 620.85,194.00 626.15,202.50 631.46,185.50 636.77,148.30 642.08,126.43 647.39,144.44 652.70,110.40 658.01,143.16 663.32,144.86 668.63,150.42 673.94,151.50 679.25,152.67 684.56,163.73 689.87,160.00 695.18,167.45 700.49,165.82 705.80,130.97 711.11,151.39 716.42,152.19 721.73,125.34 727.04,92.00 732.35,92.53 737.66,93.55 742.97,88.78 748.28,106.87 753.59,100.03 758.90,78.65 764.21,45.83 769.52,106.40 774.83,93.59 780.14,89.63 785.45,93.08 790.76,89.82 796.07,85.81 801.38,83.98 806.69,69.61 812.00,39.77" 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435.00,319.61 440.31,319.61 445.62,313.00 450.93,305.33 456.24,301.09 461.55,304.50 466.86,312.25 472.17,313.00 477.48,313.00 482.79,313.00 488.10,313.00 493.41,314.71 498.72,318.00 504.03,330.00 509.34,321.50 514.65,299.83 519.96,332.61 525.27,320.93 530.58,315.50 535.89,319.04 541.20,307.61 546.51,313.00 551.82,321.50 557.13,321.50 562.44,321.50 567.75,313.00 573.06,339.36 578.37,285.06 583.68,355.50 588.99,333.09 594.30,347.00 599.61,349.61 604.92,333.81 610.23,355.50 615.54,330.00 620.85,347.00 626.15,321.50 631.46,330.00 636.77,335.67 642.08,338.16 647.39,335.19 652.70,332.17 658.01,343.74 663.32,328.07 668.63,329.52 673.94,338.50 679.25,337.20 684.56,340.52 689.87,330.00 695.18,337.00 700.49,328.47 705.80,323.19 711.11,329.27 716.42,354.97 721.73,348.92 727.04,313.00 732.35,306.18 737.66,348.27 742.97,339.79 748.28,334.42 753.59,351.75 758.90,332.28 764.21,335.48 769.52,361.38 774.83,341.18 780.14,329.57 785.45,335.28 790.76,341.56 796.07,326.77 801.38,335.83 806.69,322.63 812.00,312.89" style="stroke:#1565c0"></polyline><circle class="end-dot" cx="812.00" cy="312.89" r="4" style="fill:#1565c0"></circle></svg></div><div class="tbl-note">Source: Direction.xlsx, Sheet1. The workbook contains 143 observations for Canada and the world and ends September 23, 2026. No USA trend series was supplied.</div>
</div>
<div class="panel" id="mood23sep26-meth" role="tabpanel">
<div class="sec">Methodology</div><div class="meth"><p>The survey was conducted with <strong>2,744 Canadian adults</strong> from <strong>September 18 to 23, 2026</strong>.</p><p>A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey through a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.</p><p>The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is <strong>plus or minus 1.87 percentage points, 19 times out of 20</strong>.</p><p>The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Canada's population according to age, gender, educational attainment and region. Totals may not add to 100 because of rounding.</p><p>All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.</p><p>The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.</p></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="ftr">
<div class="ftr-l"><span class="ftr-b">Abacus Data</span> · Canadian Public Affairs Update · September 23, 2026 · n=2,744 · MoE ±1.87%</div>
<div class="ftr-r">abacusdata.ca</div>
</div>
</div>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Cost of Living Leads the Agenda, Trump Remains a Major Focus</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The rising cost of living remains the most frequently cited issue facing the country.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Sixty-three percent select it as one of the three most important issues facing Canada.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Donald Trump and his administration remain second at 44%, followed by the economy at 37%, healthcare at 31%, housing affordability and accessibility at 27%, and immigration at 21%.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Climate change and the environment is at 17%, crime and public safety 15%, job security and unemployment 14%, inequality and poverty 11%, and the rise of artificial intelligence 11%.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Compared with two weeks ago, the overall hierarchy has changed very little.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Cost of living is down two points, Trump is down two, and the economy is down two. But those same three issues continue to sit well above most of the remainder of the public agenda.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Quebec remains distinctive.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="535" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/card_guessing_1200x627-1024x535.png" alt="" class="wp-image-93201" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/card_guessing_1200x627-1024x535.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/card_guessing_1200x627-300x157.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/card_guessing_1200x627-768x401.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/card_guessing_1200x627.png 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Fifty-nine percent of Quebecers identify Donald Trump and his administration as a top-three issue, compared with 56% who select the rising cost of living. Trump is therefore the most frequently selected issue in Quebec in this wave.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And the Liberal advantage among Canadians focused on Trump remains very large. Among people who rank Trump and his administration as a top-three issue, 68% say the Liberal Party is best able to deal with the issue, compared with 14% who choose the Conservatives.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The contrast across issues remains important. The Conservatives have advantages among those focused on immigration, crime and public safety, and job security and unemployment, while the Liberals lead on several other issues, including healthcare, climate change, inequality, Indigenous reconciliation, artificial intelligence, and dealing with Trump and his administration.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The public agenda therefore remains divided between persistent domestic economic pressures and a highly salient external challenge centred on the United States.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
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#abd-issues23sep26 .body{padding:24px 28px;background:#f5f7f2}
#abd-issues23sep26 .panel{display:none}
#abd-issues23sep26 .panel.on{display:block}
#abd-issues23sep26 .sec{font-size:11px;font-weight:700;letter-spacing:.12em;text-transform:uppercase;color:#2d4a2d;margin-bottom:14px;padding-bottom:6px;border-bottom:2px solid #c8ddb8}
#abd-issues23sep26 .q{font-size:12px;color:#5a7a5a;font-style:italic;background:#eef4e8;border-left:3px solid #7dc242;padding:10px 10px 10px 14px;border-radius:0 6px 6px 0;margin-bottom:18px;line-height:1.6}
/* === BAR CHART === */
#abd-issues23sep26 .bar-list{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:9px;margin-bottom:14px}
#abd-issues23sep26 .bar-row{display:grid;grid-template-columns:250px 1fr 92px;align-items:center;gap:10px}
#abd-issues23sep26 .bar-lbl{font-size:12px;font-weight:700;color:#2d4a2d;text-align:right;line-height:1.3}
#abd-issues23sep26 .bar-track{height:22px;background:#e8ede0;border-radius:4px;overflow:hidden}
#abd-issues23sep26 .bar-fill{height:100%;border-radius:4px;transition:width .4s ease}
#abd-issues23sep26 .bar-pct{font-size:13px;font-weight:700;white-space:nowrap}
/* === CHANGE BADGES === */
#abd-issues23sep26 .chg-badge{font-size:9px;font-weight:700;padding:1px 5px;border-radius:3px;margin-left:4px}
#abd-issues23sep26 .chg-badge.up{background:#d4edda;color:#2e7d32}
#abd-issues23sep26 .chg-badge.dn{background:#fde8e8;color:#c62828}
#abd-issues23sep26 .chg-badge.nc{background:#e8ede0;color:#7a9a7a}
/* === CALLOUT === */
#abd-issues23sep26 .callout{background:#eef4e8;border:1px solid #c8ddb8;border-left:4px solid #2d4a2d;border-radius:6px;padding:14px 16px;margin-bottom:20px;font-size:13px;line-height:1.6;color:#2a3a2a}
#abd-issues23sep26 .callout strong{color:#2d4a2d}
/* === TABLE === */
#abd-issues23sep26 .sub-tbl{width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:12px;margin-bottom:8px}
#abd-issues23sep26 .sub-tbl th{background:#e4eed8;color:#2d4a2d;font-size:10px;font-weight:700;letter-spacing:.08em;text-transform:uppercase;padding:8px 8px;text-align:center;border-bottom:2px solid #c8ddb8}
#abd-issues23sep26 .sub-tbl th:first-child{text-align:left}
#abd-issues23sep26 .sub-tbl td{padding:7px 8px;border-bottom:1px solid #e8ede0;color:#2a3a2a;text-align:center;font-size:12px;background:#fff}
#abd-issues23sep26 .sub-tbl td:first-child{text-align:left;font-weight:700;color:#1a2e1a;background:#f5f7f2}
#abd-issues23sep26 .sub-tbl tr:last-child td{border-bottom:none}
#abd-issues23sep26 .sub-tbl .hi{font-weight:800;background:#f4f9ee}
#abd-issues23sep26 .party-dot{display:inline-block;width:8px;height:8px;border-radius:50%;margin-right:5px;vertical-align:middle}
#abd-issues23sep26 .tbl-note{font-size:10px;color:#7a9a7a;margin:6px 0 4px;line-height:1.5}
/* === FOOTER === */
#abd-issues23sep26 .ftr{background:#2d4a2d;padding:12px 24px;display:flex;justify-content:space-between;align-items:center;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:8px}
#abd-issues23sep26 .ftr-l{font-size:11px;color:rgba(255,255,255,.6)}
#abd-issues23sep26 .ftr-b{color:#a8d878;font-weight:700}
#abd-issues23sep26 .ftr-r{font-size:11px;color:rgba(255,255,255,.4)}
/* === METHODOLOGY === */
#abd-issues23sep26 .meth p{font-size:13px;color:#3a5a3a;line-height:1.7;margin-bottom:12px}
#abd-issues23sep26 .meth p strong{color:#2d4a2d}
/* === RESPONSIVE === */
@media(max-width:600px){
#abd-issues23sep26 .body{padding:16px 14px}
#abd-issues23sep26 .bar-row{grid-template-columns:120px 1fr 70px}
#abd-issues23sep26 .sub-tbl th,#abd-issues23sep26 .sub-tbl td{padding:6px 4px;font-size:10px}
}
/* === CUSTOM ISSUES TABLES AND PARTY-HANDLING STACKS === */
#abd-issues23sep26 .table-wrap{width:100%;overflow-x:auto;border-radius:6px}
#abd-issues23sep26 .issue-region{min-width:760px}
#abd-issues23sep26 .handling-exact{min-width:1020px}
#abd-issues23sep26 .sub-tbl th:first-child{position:sticky;left:0;z-index:2}
#abd-issues23sep26 .sub-tbl td:first-child{position:sticky;left:0;z-index:1;min-width:245px}
#abd-issues23sep26 .handling-legend{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:7px 12px;margin-bottom:12px}
#abd-issues23sep26 .legend-key{display:inline-flex;align-items:center;font-size:9px;color:#3a5a3a}
#abd-issues23sep26 .legend-key i{display:inline-block;width:8px;height:8px;border-radius:50%;margin-right:5px;flex:0 0 auto}
#abd-issues23sep26 .stack-list{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:8px;margin-bottom:18px}
#abd-issues23sep26 .stack-row{display:grid;grid-template-columns:230px 1fr 93px;gap:8px;align-items:center}
#abd-issues23sep26 .stack-lbl{font-size:10px;font-weight:700;color:#2d4a2d;text-align:right;line-height:1.2}
#abd-issues23sep26 .stack-track{display:flex;height:25px;overflow:hidden;border-radius:4px;background:#e8ede0}
#abd-issues23sep26 .stack-seg{display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:center;min-width:0;height:100%;overflow:hidden}
#abd-issues23sep26 .stack-seg span{font-size:9px;font-weight:800;color:#fff;white-space:nowrap}
#abd-issues23sep26 .adv{font-size:9px;font-weight:800;text-align:left}
@media(max-width:600px){
#abd-issues23sep26 .hdr{padding:20px 18px 17px}
#abd-issues23sep26 .tabs{padding:0 8px}
#abd-issues23sep26 .tab{padding:9px 6px;font-size:8px;letter-spacing:.035em}
#abd-issues23sep26 .bar-row{grid-template-columns:125px 1fr 38px;gap:6px}
#abd-issues23sep26 .bar-lbl{font-size:8px}
#abd-issues23sep26 .bar-pct{font-size:10px}
#abd-issues23sep26 .stack-row{grid-template-columns:105px 1fr 56px;gap:5px}
#abd-issues23sep26 .stack-lbl{font-size:8px}
#abd-issues23sep26 .stack-seg span{font-size:7px}
#abd-issues23sep26 .adv{font-size:7px}
#abd-issues23sep26 .sub-tbl th:first-child,#abd-issues23sep26 .sub-tbl td:first-child{min-width:165px;width:165px;max-width:165px;white-space:normal}
}
</style>
<div class="abd-issues23sep26-wrap">
<div id="abd-issues23sep26">
<div class="hdr">
<div class="brand">
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" alt="Abacus Data">
<span class="brand-sep"></span>
<span class="brand-lbl">Canadian Public Affairs Update · September 2026</span>
</div>
<div class="title">Top Issues: <em>Cost of Living Leads at 63%</em></div>
<div class="meta">n=2,744 Canadian adults · September 18–23, 2026 · MoE ±1.87%</div>
</div>
<div class="tabs" role="tablist">
<button class="tab on" data-tab="issues23sep26-overall" role="tab" aria-selected="true">Overall Top Issues</button>
<button class="tab" data-tab="issues23sep26-region" role="tab" aria-selected="false">Regional Breakout</button>
<button class="tab" data-tab="issues23sep26-handling" role="tab" aria-selected="false">Best Party Able to Handle Issue</button>
<button class="tab" data-tab="issues23sep26-meth" role="tab" aria-selected="false">Methodology</button>
</div>
<div class="body">
<div class="panel on" id="issues23sep26-overall" role="tabpanel">
<div class="q">What are the 3 most important issues facing Canada today? Please select 3 issues.</div><div class="sec">Overall Top Issues</div><div class="callout"><strong>The rising cost of living remains the leading issue, selected by 63% of Canadians.</strong> Donald Trump and his administration ranks second at 44%, followed by the economy at 37% and healthcare at 31%.</div><div class="bar-list"><div class="bar-row" data-label="The rising cost of living" data-value="63"><div class="bar-lbl">The rising cost of living</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:100.00%;background:#e53935"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">63%</div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="Donald Trump and his administration" data-value="44"><div class="bar-lbl">Donald Trump and his administration</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:69.84%;background:#f0a500"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">44%</div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="The economy" data-value="37"><div class="bar-lbl">The economy</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:58.73%;background:#f0a500"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">37%</div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="Healthcare" data-value="31"><div class="bar-lbl">Healthcare</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:49.21%;background:#f0a500"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">31%</div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="Housing affordability and accessibility" data-value="27"><div class="bar-lbl">Housing affordability and accessibility</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:42.86%;background:#f0a500"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">27%</div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="Immigration" data-value="21"><div class="bar-lbl">Immigration</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:33.33%;background:#f0a500"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">21%</div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="Climate change and the environment" data-value="17"><div class="bar-lbl">Climate change and the environment</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:26.98%;background:#7dc242"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">17%</div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="Crime and public safety" data-value="15"><div class="bar-lbl">Crime and public safety</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:23.81%;background:#7dc242"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">15%</div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="Job security and unemployment" data-value="14"><div class="bar-lbl">Job security and unemployment</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:22.22%;background:#7dc242"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">14%</div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="Inequality and poverty" data-value="11"><div class="bar-lbl">Inequality and poverty</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:17.46%;background:#7dc242"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">11%</div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="The rise of artificial intelligence" data-value="11"><div class="bar-lbl">The rise of artificial intelligence</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:17.46%;background:#7dc242"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">11%</div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="The threat posed by China and Russia" data-value="6"><div class="bar-lbl">The threat posed by China and Russia</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:9.52%;background:#7dc242"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">6%</div></div><div class="bar-row" data-label="Indigenous reconciliation" data-value="2"><div class="bar-lbl">Indigenous reconciliation</div><div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill" style="width:3.17%;background:#7dc242"></div></div><div class="bar-pct" style="color:#2d4a2d">2%</div></div></div><div class="tbl-note">Respondents selected three issues, so totals exceed 100%.</div>
</div>
<div class="panel" id="issues23sep26-region" role="tabpanel">
<div class="q">What are the 3 most important issues facing Canada today? Please select 3 issues. (By region.)</div><div class="sec">Top Issues by Region</div><div class="callout"><strong>The rising cost of living ranks first in every region, ranging from 56% in Quebec to 70% in Atlantic Canada.</strong> Concern about Donald Trump is highest in Quebec at 59%, while the economy reaches 47% in Alberta.</div><div class="table-wrap"><table class="sub-tbl issue-region" data-columns="BC|AB|SK/MB|ON|QC|ATL"><tr><th>Issue</th><th>BC</th><th>AB</th><th>SK/MB</th><th>ON</th><th>QC</th><th>ATL</th></tr><tr data-row="The rising cost of living"><td>The rising cost of living</td><td class="hi" style="color:#2d4a2d" data-column="BC" data-value="68">68%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#2d4a2d" data-column="AB" data-value="68">68%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#2d4a2d" data-column="SK/MB" data-value="60">60%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#2d4a2d" data-column="ON" data-value="63">63%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#2d4a2d" data-column="QC" data-value="56">56%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#2d4a2d" data-column="ATL" data-value="70">70%</td></tr><tr data-row="Donald Trump and his administration"><td>Donald Trump and his administration</td><td class="hi" style="color:#2d4a2d" data-column="BC" data-value="37">37%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#2d4a2d" data-column="AB" data-value="36">36%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#2d4a2d" data-column="SK/MB" data-value="37">37%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#2d4a2d" data-column="ON" data-value="40">40%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#2d4a2d" data-column="QC" data-value="59">59%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#2d4a2d" data-column="ATL" data-value="48">48%</td></tr><tr data-row="The economy"><td>The economy</td><td class="hi" style="color:#2d4a2d" data-column="BC" data-value="45">45%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#2d4a2d" data-column="AB" data-value="47">47%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#2d4a2d" data-column="SK/MB" data-value="36">36%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#2d4a2d" data-column="ON" data-value="36">36%</td><td data-column="QC" data-value="32">32%</td><td data-column="ATL" data-value="28">28%</td></tr><tr data-row="Healthcare"><td>Healthcare</td><td data-column="BC" data-value="35">35%</td><td data-column="AB" data-value="34">34%</td><td data-column="SK/MB" data-value="31">31%</td><td data-column="ON" data-value="28">28%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#2d4a2d" data-column="QC" data-value="33">33%</td><td class="hi" style="color:#2d4a2d" data-column="ATL" data-value="37">37%</td></tr><tr data-row="Housing affordability and accessibility"><td>Housing affordability and accessibility</td><td data-column="BC" data-value="27">27%</td><td data-column="AB" data-value="22">22%</td><td data-column="SK/MB" data-value="24">24%</td><td data-column="ON" data-value="29">29%</td><td data-column="QC" data-value="26">26%</td><td data-column="ATL" data-value="30">30%</td></tr><tr data-row="Immigration"><td>Immigration</td><td data-column="BC" data-value="22">22%</td><td data-column="AB" data-value="27">27%</td><td data-column="SK/MB" data-value="27">27%</td><td data-column="ON" data-value="21">21%</td><td data-column="QC" data-value="19">19%</td><td data-column="ATL" data-value="12">12%</td></tr><tr data-row="Climate change and the environment"><td>Climate change and the environment</td><td data-column="BC" data-value="17">17%</td><td data-column="AB" data-value="11">11%</td><td data-column="SK/MB" data-value="13">13%</td><td data-column="ON" data-value="16">16%</td><td data-column="QC" data-value="22">22%</td><td data-column="ATL" data-value="19">19%</td></tr><tr data-row="Crime and public safety"><td>Crime and public safety</td><td data-column="BC" data-value="14">14%</td><td data-column="AB" data-value="13">13%</td><td data-column="SK/MB" data-value="24">24%</td><td data-column="ON" data-value="18">18%</td><td data-column="QC" data-value="9">9%</td><td data-column="ATL" data-value="15">15%</td></tr><tr data-row="Job security and unemployment"><td>Job security and unemployment</td><td data-column="BC" data-value="14">14%</td><td data-column="AB" data-value="15">15%</td><td data-column="SK/MB" data-value="7">7%</td><td data-column="ON" data-value="18">18%</td><td data-column="QC" data-value="10">10%</td><td data-column="ATL" data-value="12">12%</td></tr><tr data-row="Inequality and poverty"><td>Inequality and poverty</td><td data-column="BC" data-value="8">8%</td><td data-column="AB" data-value="12">12%</td><td data-column="SK/MB" data-value="15">15%</td><td data-column="ON" data-value="10">10%</td><td data-column="QC" data-value="16">16%</td><td data-column="ATL" data-value="11">11%</td></tr><tr data-row="The rise of artificial intelligence"><td>The rise of artificial intelligence</td><td data-column="BC" data-value="10">10%</td><td data-column="AB" data-value="10">10%</td><td data-column="SK/MB" data-value="16">16%</td><td data-column="ON" data-value="12">12%</td><td data-column="QC" data-value="10">10%</td><td data-column="ATL" data-value="14">14%</td></tr><tr data-row="The threat posed by China and Russia"><td>The threat posed by China and Russia</td><td data-column="BC" data-value="5">5%</td><td data-column="AB" data-value="5">5%</td><td data-column="SK/MB" data-value="6">6%</td><td data-column="ON" data-value="6">6%</td><td data-column="QC" data-value="6">6%</td><td data-column="ATL" data-value="3">3%</td></tr><tr data-row="Indigenous reconciliation"><td>Indigenous reconciliation</td><td data-column="BC" data-value="2">2%</td><td data-column="AB" data-value="3">3%</td><td data-column="SK/MB" data-value="5">5%</td><td data-column="ON" data-value="3">3%</td><td data-column="QC" data-value="2">2%</td><td data-column="ATL" data-value="1">1%</td></tr></table></div><div class="tbl-note">Each region&#39;s top three issues are highlighted. Respondents selected three issues, so column totals exceed 100%.</div>
</div>
<div class="panel" id="issues23sep26-handling" role="tabpanel">
<div class="q">Which party do you think would do best on… (Among those who rated the issue in their top 3.)</div><div class="sec">Best Party Able to Handle Each Issue</div><div class="callout"><strong>The Liberals lead on eight of the 13 displayed issues, while the Conservatives lead on five.</strong> The largest Conservative advantages are on immigration and crime; the largest Liberal advantage is on Donald Trump and his administration.</div><div class="handling-legend"><span class="legend-key"><i style="background:#c62828"></i>Liberal</span><span class="legend-key"><i style="background:#1565c0"></i>Conservative</span><span class="legend-key"><i style="background:#e65100"></i>NDP</span><span class="legend-key"><i style="background:#4caf50"></i>Green</span><span class="legend-key"><i style="background:#83329b"></i>People's Party</span><span class="legend-key"><i style="background:#aeb5ad"></i>Another party</span><span class="legend-key"><i style="background:#8a8a8a"></i>Unsure</span></div><div class="stack-list"><div class="stack-row" data-row="Healthcare"><span class="stack-lbl">Healthcare</span><span class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Liberal" data-value="34" style="flex:34 0 0;background:#c62828" title="Liberal: 34%"><span>34%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Conservative" data-value="20" style="flex:20 0 0;background:#1565c0" title="Conservative: 20%"><span>20%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="NDP" data-value="19" style="flex:19 0 0;background:#e65100" title="NDP: 19%"><span>19%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Green" data-value="3" style="flex:3 0 0;background:#4caf50" title="Green: 3%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="People's Party" data-value="1" style="flex:1 0 0;background:#83329b" title="People's Party: 1%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Another party" data-value="4" style="flex:4 0 0;background:#aeb5ad" title="Another party: 4%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Unsure" data-value="19" style="flex:19 0 0;background:#8a8a8a" title="Unsure: 19%"><span>19%</span></i></span><strong class="adv" data-winner="Liberal" data-margin="14" style="color:#c62828">Liberal +14</strong></div><div class="stack-row" data-row="The rising cost of living"><span class="stack-lbl">The rising cost of living</span><span class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Liberal" data-value="31" style="flex:31 0 0;background:#c62828" title="Liberal: 31%"><span>31%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Conservative" data-value="32" style="flex:32 0 0;background:#1565c0" title="Conservative: 32%"><span>32%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="NDP" data-value="10" style="flex:10 0 0;background:#e65100" title="NDP: 10%"><span>10%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Green" data-value="2" style="flex:2 0 0;background:#4caf50" title="Green: 2%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="People's Party" data-value="2" style="flex:2 0 0;background:#83329b" title="People's Party: 2%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Another party" data-value="2" style="flex:2 0 0;background:#aeb5ad" title="Another party: 2%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Unsure" data-value="21" style="flex:21 0 0;background:#8a8a8a" title="Unsure: 21%"><span>21%</span></i></span><strong class="adv" data-winner="Conservative" data-margin="1" style="color:#1565c0">Conservative +1</strong></div><div class="stack-row" data-row="Housing affordability and accessibility"><span class="stack-lbl">Housing affordability and accessibility</span><span class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Liberal" data-value="27" style="flex:27 0 0;background:#c62828" title="Liberal: 27%"><span>27%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Conservative" data-value="29" style="flex:29 0 0;background:#1565c0" title="Conservative: 29%"><span>29%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="NDP" data-value="17" style="flex:17 0 0;background:#e65100" title="NDP: 17%"><span>17%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Green" data-value="2" style="flex:2 0 0;background:#4caf50" title="Green: 2%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="People's Party" data-value="3" style="flex:3 0 0;background:#83329b" title="People's Party: 3%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Another party" data-value="3" style="flex:3 0 0;background:#aeb5ad" title="Another party: 3%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Unsure" data-value="20" style="flex:20 0 0;background:#8a8a8a" title="Unsure: 20%"><span>20%</span></i></span><strong class="adv" data-winner="Conservative" data-margin="2" style="color:#1565c0">Conservative +2</strong></div><div class="stack-row" data-row="Crime and public safety"><span class="stack-lbl">Crime and public safety</span><span class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Liberal" data-value="21" style="flex:21 0 0;background:#c62828" title="Liberal: 21%"><span>21%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Conservative" data-value="50" style="flex:50 0 0;background:#1565c0" title="Conservative: 50%"><span>50%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="NDP" data-value="6" style="flex:6 0 0;background:#e65100" title="NDP: 6%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Green" data-value="2" style="flex:2 0 0;background:#4caf50" title="Green: 2%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="People's Party" data-value="3" style="flex:3 0 0;background:#83329b" title="People's Party: 3%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Another party" data-value="1" style="flex:1 0 0;background:#aeb5ad" title="Another party: 1%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Unsure" data-value="17" style="flex:17 0 0;background:#8a8a8a" title="Unsure: 17%"><span>17%</span></i></span><strong class="adv" data-winner="Conservative" data-margin="29" style="color:#1565c0">Conservative +29</strong></div><div class="stack-row" data-row="The economy"><span class="stack-lbl">The economy</span><span class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Liberal" data-value="41" style="flex:41 0 0;background:#c62828" title="Liberal: 41%"><span>41%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Conservative" data-value="39" style="flex:39 0 0;background:#1565c0" title="Conservative: 39%"><span>39%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="NDP" data-value="5" style="flex:5 0 0;background:#e65100" title="NDP: 5%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Green" data-value="1" style="flex:1 0 0;background:#4caf50" title="Green: 1%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="People's Party" data-value="1" style="flex:1 0 0;background:#83329b" title="People's Party: 1%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Another party" data-value="2" style="flex:2 0 0;background:#aeb5ad" title="Another party: 2%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Unsure" data-value="11" style="flex:11 0 0;background:#8a8a8a" title="Unsure: 11%"><span>11%</span></i></span><strong class="adv" data-winner="Liberal" data-margin="2" style="color:#c62828">Liberal +2</strong></div><div class="stack-row" data-row="Climate change and the environment"><span class="stack-lbl">Climate change and the environment</span><span class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Liberal" data-value="39" style="flex:39 0 0;background:#c62828" title="Liberal: 39%"><span>39%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Conservative" data-value="7" style="flex:7 0 0;background:#1565c0" title="Conservative: 7%"><span>7%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="NDP" data-value="11" style="flex:11 0 0;background:#e65100" title="NDP: 11%"><span>11%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Green" data-value="26" style="flex:26 0 0;background:#4caf50" title="Green: 26%"><span>26%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="People's Party" data-value="1" style="flex:1 0 0;background:#83329b" title="People's Party: 1%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Another party" data-value="2" style="flex:2 0 0;background:#aeb5ad" title="Another party: 2%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Unsure" data-value="14" style="flex:14 0 0;background:#8a8a8a" title="Unsure: 14%"><span>14%</span></i></span><strong class="adv" data-winner="Liberal" data-margin="32" style="color:#c62828">Liberal +32</strong></div><div class="stack-row" data-row="The threat posed by China and Russia"><span class="stack-lbl">The threat posed by China and Russia</span><span class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Liberal" data-value="43" style="flex:43 0 0;background:#c62828" title="Liberal: 43%"><span>43%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Conservative" data-value="34" style="flex:34 0 0;background:#1565c0" title="Conservative: 34%"><span>34%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="NDP" data-value="7" style="flex:7 0 0;background:#e65100" title="NDP: 7%"><span>7%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Green" data-value="3" style="flex:3 0 0;background:#4caf50" title="Green: 3%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="People's Party" data-value="2" style="flex:2 0 0;background:#83329b" title="People's Party: 2%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Another party" data-value="2" style="flex:2 0 0;background:#aeb5ad" title="Another party: 2%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Unsure" data-value="9" style="flex:9 0 0;background:#8a8a8a" title="Unsure: 9%"><span>9%</span></i></span><strong class="adv" data-winner="Liberal" data-margin="9" style="color:#c62828">Liberal +9</strong></div><div class="stack-row" data-row="Inequality and poverty"><span class="stack-lbl">Inequality and poverty</span><span class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Liberal" data-value="27" style="flex:27 0 0;background:#c62828" title="Liberal: 27%"><span>27%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Conservative" data-value="19" style="flex:19 0 0;background:#1565c0" title="Conservative: 19%"><span>19%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="NDP" data-value="25" style="flex:25 0 0;background:#e65100" title="NDP: 25%"><span>25%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Green" data-value="5" style="flex:5 0 0;background:#4caf50" title="Green: 5%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="People's Party" data-value="1" style="flex:1 0 0;background:#83329b" title="People's Party: 1%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Another party" data-value="2" style="flex:2 0 0;background:#aeb5ad" title="Another party: 2%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Unsure" data-value="21" style="flex:21 0 0;background:#8a8a8a" title="Unsure: 21%"><span>21%</span></i></span><strong class="adv" data-winner="Liberal" data-margin="8" style="color:#c62828">Liberal +8</strong></div><div class="stack-row" data-row="Indigenous reconciliation"><span class="stack-lbl">Indigenous reconciliation</span><span class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Liberal" data-value="24" style="flex:24 0 0;background:#c62828" title="Liberal: 24%"><span>24%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Conservative" data-value="19" style="flex:19 0 0;background:#1565c0" title="Conservative: 19%"><span>19%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="NDP" data-value="22" style="flex:22 0 0;background:#e65100" title="NDP: 22%"><span>22%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Green" data-value="11" style="flex:11 0 0;background:#4caf50" title="Green: 11%"><span>11%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="People's Party" data-value="13" style="flex:13 0 0;background:#83329b" title="People's Party: 13%"><span>13%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Another party" data-value="1" style="flex:1 0 0;background:#aeb5ad" title="Another party: 1%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Unsure" data-value="10" style="flex:10 0 0;background:#8a8a8a" title="Unsure: 10%"><span>10%</span></i></span><strong class="adv" data-winner="Liberal" data-margin="5" style="color:#c62828">Liberal +5</strong></div><div class="stack-row" data-row="Immigration"><span class="stack-lbl">Immigration</span><span class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Liberal" data-value="14" style="flex:14 0 0;background:#c62828" title="Liberal: 14%"><span>14%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Conservative" data-value="59" style="flex:59 0 0;background:#1565c0" title="Conservative: 59%"><span>59%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="NDP" data-value="3" style="flex:3 0 0;background:#e65100" title="NDP: 3%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Green" data-value="2" style="flex:2 0 0;background:#4caf50" title="Green: 2%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="People's Party" data-value="5" style="flex:5 0 0;background:#83329b" title="People's Party: 5%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Another party" data-value="2" style="flex:2 0 0;background:#aeb5ad" title="Another party: 2%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Unsure" data-value="14" style="flex:14 0 0;background:#8a8a8a" title="Unsure: 14%"><span>14%</span></i></span><strong class="adv" data-winner="Conservative" data-margin="45" style="color:#1565c0">Conservative +45</strong></div><div class="stack-row" data-row="The rise of artificial intelligence"><span class="stack-lbl">The rise of artificial intelligence</span><span class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Liberal" data-value="39" style="flex:39 0 0;background:#c62828" title="Liberal: 39%"><span>39%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Conservative" data-value="19" style="flex:19 0 0;background:#1565c0" title="Conservative: 19%"><span>19%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="NDP" data-value="9" style="flex:9 0 0;background:#e65100" title="NDP: 9%"><span>9%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Green" data-value="5" style="flex:5 0 0;background:#4caf50" title="Green: 5%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="People's Party" data-value="1" style="flex:1 0 0;background:#83329b" title="People's Party: 1%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Another party" data-value="1" style="flex:1 0 0;background:#aeb5ad" title="Another party: 1%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Unsure" data-value="26" style="flex:26 0 0;background:#8a8a8a" title="Unsure: 26%"><span>26%</span></i></span><strong class="adv" data-winner="Liberal" data-margin="20" style="color:#c62828">Liberal +20</strong></div><div class="stack-row" data-row="Donald Trump and his administration"><span class="stack-lbl">Donald Trump and his administration</span><span class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Liberal" data-value="68" style="flex:68 0 0;background:#c62828" title="Liberal: 68%"><span>68%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Conservative" data-value="14" style="flex:14 0 0;background:#1565c0" title="Conservative: 14%"><span>14%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="NDP" data-value="2" style="flex:2 0 0;background:#e65100" title="NDP: 2%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Green" data-value="1" style="flex:1 0 0;background:#4caf50" title="Green: 1%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="People's Party" data-value="0" style="flex:0 0 0;background:#83329b" title="People's Party: 0%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Another party" data-value="2" style="flex:2 0 0;background:#aeb5ad" title="Another party: 2%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Unsure" data-value="13" style="flex:13 0 0;background:#8a8a8a" title="Unsure: 13%"><span>13%</span></i></span><strong class="adv" data-winner="Liberal" data-margin="54" style="color:#c62828">Liberal +54</strong></div><div class="stack-row" data-row="Job security and unemployment"><span class="stack-lbl">Job security and unemployment</span><span class="stack-track"><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Liberal" data-value="26" style="flex:26 0 0;background:#c62828" title="Liberal: 26%"><span>26%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Conservative" data-value="42" style="flex:42 0 0;background:#1565c0" title="Conservative: 42%"><span>42%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="NDP" data-value="10" style="flex:10 0 0;background:#e65100" title="NDP: 10%"><span>10%</span></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Green" data-value="3" style="flex:3 0 0;background:#4caf50" title="Green: 3%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="People's Party" data-value="2" style="flex:2 0 0;background:#83329b" title="People's Party: 2%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Another party" data-value="2" style="flex:2 0 0;background:#aeb5ad" title="Another party: 2%"></i><i class="stack-seg" data-series="Unsure" data-value="16" style="flex:16 0 0;background:#8a8a8a" title="Unsure: 16%"><span>16%</span></i></span><strong class="adv" data-winner="Conservative" data-margin="16" style="color:#1565c0">Conservative +16</strong></div></div><div class="table-wrap"><table class="sub-tbl handling-exact" data-columns="Liberal|Conservative|NDP|Green|People's Party|Another party|Unsure"><tr><th>Issue</th><th><span class="party-dot" style="background:#c62828"></span>Liberal</th><th><span class="party-dot" style="background:#1565c0"></span>Conservative</th><th><span class="party-dot" style="background:#e65100"></span>NDP</th><th><span class="party-dot" style="background:#4caf50"></span>Green</th><th><span class="party-dot" style="background:#83329b"></span>People's Party</th><th><span class="party-dot" style="background:#aeb5ad"></span>Another party</th><th><span class="party-dot" style="background:#8a8a8a"></span>Unsure</th><th>Advantage</th></tr><tr data-row="Healthcare"><td>Healthcare</td><td data-column="Liberal" data-value="34">34%</td><td data-column="Conservative" data-value="20">20%</td><td data-column="NDP" data-value="19">19%</td><td data-column="Green" data-value="3">3%</td><td data-column="People's Party" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="Another party" data-value="4">4%</td><td data-column="Unsure" data-value="19">19%</td><td class="hi" data-column="Advantage" data-winner="Liberal" data-margin="14" style="color:#c62828">Liberal +14</td></tr><tr data-row="The rising cost of living"><td>The rising cost of living</td><td data-column="Liberal" data-value="31">31%</td><td data-column="Conservative" data-value="32">32%</td><td data-column="NDP" data-value="10">10%</td><td data-column="Green" data-value="2">2%</td><td data-column="People's Party" data-value="2">2%</td><td data-column="Another party" data-value="2">2%</td><td data-column="Unsure" data-value="21">21%</td><td class="hi" data-column="Advantage" data-winner="Conservative" data-margin="1" style="color:#1565c0">Conservative +1</td></tr><tr data-row="Housing affordability and accessibility"><td>Housing affordability and accessibility</td><td data-column="Liberal" data-value="27">27%</td><td data-column="Conservative" data-value="29">29%</td><td data-column="NDP" data-value="17">17%</td><td data-column="Green" data-value="2">2%</td><td data-column="People's Party" data-value="3">3%</td><td data-column="Another party" data-value="3">3%</td><td data-column="Unsure" data-value="20">20%</td><td class="hi" data-column="Advantage" data-winner="Conservative" data-margin="2" style="color:#1565c0">Conservative +2</td></tr><tr data-row="Crime and public safety"><td>Crime and public safety</td><td data-column="Liberal" data-value="21">21%</td><td data-column="Conservative" data-value="50">50%</td><td data-column="NDP" data-value="6">6%</td><td data-column="Green" data-value="2">2%</td><td data-column="People's Party" data-value="3">3%</td><td data-column="Another party" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="Unsure" data-value="17">17%</td><td class="hi" data-column="Advantage" data-winner="Conservative" data-margin="29" style="color:#1565c0">Conservative +29</td></tr><tr data-row="The economy"><td>The economy</td><td data-column="Liberal" data-value="41">41%</td><td data-column="Conservative" data-value="39">39%</td><td data-column="NDP" data-value="5">5%</td><td data-column="Green" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="People's Party" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="Another party" data-value="2">2%</td><td data-column="Unsure" data-value="11">11%</td><td class="hi" data-column="Advantage" data-winner="Liberal" data-margin="2" style="color:#c62828">Liberal +2</td></tr><tr data-row="Climate change and the environment"><td>Climate change and the environment</td><td data-column="Liberal" data-value="39">39%</td><td data-column="Conservative" data-value="7">7%</td><td data-column="NDP" data-value="11">11%</td><td data-column="Green" data-value="26">26%</td><td data-column="People's Party" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="Another party" data-value="2">2%</td><td data-column="Unsure" data-value="14">14%</td><td class="hi" data-column="Advantage" data-winner="Liberal" data-margin="32" style="color:#c62828">Liberal +32</td></tr><tr data-row="The threat posed by China and Russia"><td>The threat posed by China and Russia</td><td data-column="Liberal" data-value="43">43%</td><td data-column="Conservative" data-value="34">34%</td><td data-column="NDP" data-value="7">7%</td><td data-column="Green" data-value="3">3%</td><td data-column="People's Party" data-value="2">2%</td><td data-column="Another party" data-value="2">2%</td><td data-column="Unsure" data-value="9">9%</td><td class="hi" data-column="Advantage" data-winner="Liberal" data-margin="9" style="color:#c62828">Liberal +9</td></tr><tr data-row="Inequality and poverty"><td>Inequality and poverty</td><td data-column="Liberal" data-value="27">27%</td><td data-column="Conservative" data-value="19">19%</td><td data-column="NDP" data-value="25">25%</td><td data-column="Green" data-value="5">5%</td><td data-column="People's Party" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="Another party" data-value="2">2%</td><td data-column="Unsure" data-value="21">21%</td><td class="hi" data-column="Advantage" data-winner="Liberal" data-margin="8" style="color:#c62828">Liberal +8</td></tr><tr data-row="Indigenous reconciliation"><td>Indigenous reconciliation</td><td data-column="Liberal" data-value="24">24%</td><td data-column="Conservative" data-value="19">19%</td><td data-column="NDP" data-value="22">22%</td><td data-column="Green" data-value="11">11%</td><td data-column="People's Party" data-value="13">13%</td><td data-column="Another party" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="Unsure" data-value="10">10%</td><td class="hi" data-column="Advantage" data-winner="Liberal" data-margin="5" style="color:#c62828">Liberal +5</td></tr><tr data-row="Immigration"><td>Immigration</td><td data-column="Liberal" data-value="14">14%</td><td data-column="Conservative" data-value="59">59%</td><td data-column="NDP" data-value="3">3%</td><td data-column="Green" data-value="2">2%</td><td data-column="People's Party" data-value="5">5%</td><td data-column="Another party" data-value="2">2%</td><td data-column="Unsure" data-value="14">14%</td><td class="hi" data-column="Advantage" data-winner="Conservative" data-margin="45" style="color:#1565c0">Conservative +45</td></tr><tr data-row="The rise of artificial intelligence"><td>The rise of artificial intelligence</td><td data-column="Liberal" data-value="39">39%</td><td data-column="Conservative" data-value="19">19%</td><td data-column="NDP" data-value="9">9%</td><td data-column="Green" data-value="5">5%</td><td data-column="People's Party" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="Another party" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="Unsure" data-value="26">26%</td><td class="hi" data-column="Advantage" data-winner="Liberal" data-margin="20" style="color:#c62828">Liberal +20</td></tr><tr data-row="Donald Trump and his administration"><td>Donald Trump and his administration</td><td data-column="Liberal" data-value="68">68%</td><td data-column="Conservative" data-value="14">14%</td><td data-column="NDP" data-value="2">2%</td><td data-column="Green" data-value="1">1%</td><td data-column="People's Party" data-value="0">0%</td><td data-column="Another party" data-value="2">2%</td><td data-column="Unsure" data-value="13">13%</td><td class="hi" data-column="Advantage" data-winner="Liberal" data-margin="54" style="color:#c62828">Liberal +54</td></tr><tr data-row="Job security and unemployment"><td>Job security and unemployment</td><td data-column="Liberal" data-value="26">26%</td><td data-column="Conservative" data-value="42">42%</td><td data-column="NDP" data-value="10">10%</td><td data-column="Green" data-value="3">3%</td><td data-column="People's Party" data-value="2">2%</td><td data-column="Another party" data-value="2">2%</td><td data-column="Unsure" data-value="16">16%</td><td class="hi" data-column="Advantage" data-winner="Conservative" data-margin="16" style="color:#1565c0">Conservative +16</td></tr></table></div><div class="tbl-note">The exact values are listed below the stacked bars. Small segment values were explicitly confirmed by the user. For the economy, the displayed 41% Liberal and 39% Conservative values produce Liberal +2; the printed source advantage says CPC.</div>
</div>
<div class="panel" id="issues23sep26-meth" role="tabpanel">
<div class="sec">Methodology</div><div class="meth"><p>The survey was conducted with <strong>2,744 Canadian adults</strong> from <strong>September 18 to 23, 2026</strong>.</p><p>A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey through a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.</p><p>The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is <strong>plus or minus 1.87 percentage points, 19 times out of 20</strong>.</p><p>The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Canada's population according to age, gender, educational attainment and region. Totals may not add to 100 because of rounding. Respondents selected three issues, so issue totals exceed 100%.</p><p>All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.</p><p>The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.</p></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="ftr">
<div class="ftr-l"><span class="ftr-b">Abacus Data</span> · Canadian Public Affairs Update · September 23, 2026 · n=2,744 · MoE ±1.87%</div>
<div class="ftr-r">abacusdata.ca</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The Upshot</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>According to <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/team/david-coletto/" data-type="team-member" data-id="23984">Abacus Data CEO David Coletto</a>:</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">“This may be one of those surveys where the most important finding is how little the core political picture changed despite how much happened around it.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Since our last survey left the field, the Prime Minister held a cabinet retreat in Banff, hosted a major investment summit, announced a significant new business tax measure, opened the door to private investment in Canada’s four largest airports, travelled to Europe, addressed the European Parliament, returned for a Liberal caucus retreat, and then Parliament came back.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">All of this happened while the trade conflict with the United States continued.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And after all of that, the Liberals are at 46% and the Conservatives are at 34%.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Liberal lead has moved from 14 points to 12. That is movement, but it is not evidence of a fundamentally different political environment.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In fact, several of the other measures have moved in the opposite direction.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Government approval is now 60%. Mark Carney’s net impression has reached +31, the highest we have recorded for him. And 48% of Canadians think the country is heading in the right direction, up three points in two weeks.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Among those certain to vote, the Liberals lead by 16.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">To me, one of the most revealing findings in the survey is the long-term time-for-change question. Two years ago, 54% of Canadians said it was time for a change and there was a good alternative available. Only 15% said re-elect the Liberals. A year ago, that was 40% to 32%. Today, 43% say re-elect the Liberals and 33% say it is time for change and there is a good alternative.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">That is a very substantial change in the underlying re-election environment.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">But there are two important cautions in the numbers.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">First, 57% of Canadians still say it is time for a change when the two change responses are combined. The difference is that far fewer now say there is a good alternative available to them more of an indictment on the opposition parties than a preference for the incumbent.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Second, the cost of living remains far and away the most important issue in the country, and the government’s ratings on cost of living, housing and several domestic economic issues remain much weaker than its ratings on Canada-U.S. relations and national security.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">So the story is not that every measure is moving in the same direction.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">It is that a remarkably busy and consequential period in federal politics has produced very little disruption to the overall partisan landscape.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Liberals still have a double-digit lead. Carney’s personal numbers have strengthened. Government approval remains high. Optimism about Canada is rising. And the long-term desire for political change looks very different than it did one or two years ago.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">For now, the political environment appears remarkably stable despite an external environment that is anything but.”</p>
<ul class="wp-block-latest-posts__list wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow"><li><a class="wp-block-latest-posts__post-title" href="https://abacusdata.ca/nineteen-months-on-the-buy-canadian-shopper-has-not-gone-home/">Nineteen months on, the Buy Canadian shopper has not gone home</a></li>
<li><a class="wp-block-latest-posts__post-title" href="https://abacusdata.ca/ihor-korbabicz-joins-the-abacus-data-ownership-team/">Ihor Korbabicz Joins the Abacus Data Ownership Team</a></li>
<li><a class="wp-block-latest-posts__post-title" href="https://abacusdata.ca/liberals-hold-12-point-lead-as-carney-reaches-new-high-and-optimism-about-canada-rises-again/">Liberals Hold 12-Point Lead as Carney Reaches New High and Optimism About Canada Rises Again</a></li>
<li><a class="wp-block-latest-posts__post-title" href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-at-a-crossroads-albertans-expect-a-close-vote-they-are-not-going-to-deliver-and-nobody-thinks-it-ends-there/">Alberta at a Crossroads: Albertans Expect a Close Vote They Are Not Going to Deliver, and Nobody Thinks It Ends There</a></li>
<li><a class="wp-block-latest-posts__post-title" href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-at-a-crossroads-independence-does-not-add-up-for-most-albertans-and-many-fear-it-ends-in-washington/">Alberta at a Crossroads: Independence Does Not Add Up for Most Albertans, and Many Fear It Ends in Washington</a></li>
</ul>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Methodology</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The survey was conducted with 2,744 Canadian adults from September 18 to 23, 2026.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey through a set of partner panels. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment and region.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 1.87 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Totals may not add to 100 because of rounding.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-16-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94224" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-16-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-16-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-16-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-16-1536x864.png 1536w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-16.png 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>About Abacus Data</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We are <strong>Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm</strong>. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">With offices in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto, and Winnipeg, we serve clients across Canada and the United States.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
<p>The post <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/liberals-hold-12-point-lead-as-carney-reaches-new-high-and-optimism-about-canada-rises-again/">Liberals Hold 12-Point Lead as Carney Reaches New High and Optimism About Canada Rises Again</a> appeared first on <a href="https://abacusdata.ca">Abacus Data</a>.</p>
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<title>Alberta at a Crossroads: Albertans Expect a Close Vote They Are Not Going to Deliver, and Nobody Thinks It Ends There</title>
<link>https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-at-a-crossroads-albertans-expect-a-close-vote-they-are-not-going-to-deliver-and-nobody-thinks-it-ends-there/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Coletto]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Fri, 18 Sep 2026 11:23:00 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Provincial Politics]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Alberta]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Alberta Independence]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://abacusdata.ca/?p=94041</guid>
<description><![CDATA[<p>The final release looks past October 19. What do Albertans think they are voting on, what result do they expect, and what do they think happens next? Earlier this year, Abacus Data acquired Manitoba-based Probe Research, one of Western Canada’s most respected public opinion firms. Curtis Brown, Probe’s principal and a pollster who has spent […]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-at-a-crossroads-albertans-expect-a-close-vote-they-are-not-going-to-deliver-and-nobody-thinks-it-ends-there/">Alberta at a Crossroads: Albertans Expect a Close Vote They Are Not Going to Deliver, and Nobody Thinks It Ends There</a> appeared first on <a href="https://abacusdata.ca">Abacus Data</a>.</p>
]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The final release looks past October 19. What do Albertans think they are voting on, what result do they expect, and what do they think happens next?</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Earlier this year, <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/probe-acquisition/" data-type="link" data-id="https://abacusdata.ca/probe-acquisition/">Abacus Data acquired Manitoba-based Probe Research</a>, one of Western Canada’s most respected public opinion firms. <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/team/curtis-brown/" data-type="link" data-id="https://abacusdata.ca/team/curtis-brown/">Curtis Brown</a>, Probe’s principal and a pollster who has spent two decades reading the Prairies, now leads our work across the West, and the combined firm gives clients in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba the depth of a national research house with people who know the ground. <strong><em>Alberta at a Crossroads</em></strong> is the first major study of that expansion.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94020" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-1536x864.png 1536w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape.png 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We built it with <strong>Robson Fletcher</strong>, a <a href="https://robsonfletcher.com/" data-type="link" data-id="https://robsonfletcher.com/">Calgary-based data & storytelling strategist</a> working in partnership with Abacus Data in Alberta.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The result is a five-part series, the most in-depth exploration of public opinion around the referendum, identity, expectations and the future of Alberta in the Canadian federation that anyone has published. We surveyed 1,000 Albertans from September 4 to 7, asked the separation question exactly as it will appear on the ballot, followed up with those who chose Option 2, the option to commence a legal process leading to a binding vote on independence (we call them Option 2 supporters (those who would vote for a legal process leading to a binding vote on independence) throughout), to find out whether they would actually vote to leave, and went deep on how Albertans see themselves, their province, their country and their neighbour to the south. This is a window into the minds of Albertans at a crossroads in the province’s history.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>What we learned</strong></p>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>Only 40% can say what a vote to commence the process would actually do.</strong> 17% think it does more than it does. 19% do not know. Three-quarters of the province is following the referendum closely.</li>
<li><strong>Everyone expects a closer result than Albertans are describing.</strong> The average Albertan expects the Option 2 side to receive 41% of the vote. Option 2 supporters expect 57%, a majority. Stated intention is 24%.</li>
<li><strong>A remain win settles nothing.</strong> 15% think it would settle the issue for a generation. 46% of Option 2 supporters expect the movement to keep growing regardless.</li>
<li><strong>Both sides expect lasting division.</strong> 63% agree the referendum will divide Albertans for years no matter who wins, one of the few things remain and Option 2 supporters agree on.</li>
</ul>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The full report sets out the comprehension gap by age and by side, the expectations gap group by group, and what Albertans on each side believe October 20 will bring. It closes with our assessment of what this referendum will and will not settle.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>To download the full 11-page report, please complete this form:</strong></p>
<script src="https://js-na3.hsforms.net/forms/embed/343145604.js" defer></script>
<div class="hs-form-frame" data-region="na3" data-form-id="7542c1d7-b204-45b1-b171-1da1ba6d7a9b" data-portal-id="343145604"></div>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>GET ACCESS TO ALL THE DATA</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">You can access the full dataset in an interactive environment for only $24.99. <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-referendum-study-data-explore/">Click here to learn more.</a></p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-referendum-study-data-explore/"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="913" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11-1024x913.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94083" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11-1024x913.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11-300x268.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11-768x685.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11.png 1203w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></a></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Media Inquiries</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">For media inquiries, please contact:</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Robson Fletcher<br><a href="mailto:robson@robsonfletcher.com">robson@robsonfletcher.com</a></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Curtis Brown<br><a href="mailto:curtis@probe-research.com">curtis@probe-research.com</a></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">David Coletto<br><a href="mailto:info@abacusdata.ca">info@abacusdata.ca</a></p>
<ul class="wp-block-latest-posts__list wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow"><li><a class="wp-block-latest-posts__post-title" href="https://abacusdata.ca/nineteen-months-on-the-buy-canadian-shopper-has-not-gone-home/">Nineteen months on, the Buy Canadian shopper has not gone home</a></li>
<li><a class="wp-block-latest-posts__post-title" href="https://abacusdata.ca/ihor-korbabicz-joins-the-abacus-data-ownership-team/">Ihor Korbabicz Joins the Abacus Data Ownership Team</a></li>
<li><a class="wp-block-latest-posts__post-title" href="https://abacusdata.ca/liberals-hold-12-point-lead-as-carney-reaches-new-high-and-optimism-about-canada-rises-again/">Liberals Hold 12-Point Lead as Carney Reaches New High and Optimism About Canada Rises Again</a></li>
<li><a class="wp-block-latest-posts__post-title" href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-at-a-crossroads-albertans-expect-a-close-vote-they-are-not-going-to-deliver-and-nobody-thinks-it-ends-there/">Alberta at a Crossroads: Albertans Expect a Close Vote They Are Not Going to Deliver, and Nobody Thinks It Ends There</a></li>
<li><a class="wp-block-latest-posts__post-title" href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-at-a-crossroads-independence-does-not-add-up-for-most-albertans-and-many-fear-it-ends-in-washington/">Alberta at a Crossroads: Independence Does Not Add Up for Most Albertans, and Many Fear It Ends in Washington</a></li>
</ul>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Methodology</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Abacus Data surveyed 1,000 Alberta adults online from September 4 to 7, 2026. The data are weighted by region, age and gender to match Alberta’s population according to census data. A probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points, 19 times out of 20. The separation question was presented exactly as it will appear on the October 19 ballot. </p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>About Abacus Data</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We are <strong>Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm</strong>. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-93927" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-1536x864.png 1536w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape.png 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">With offices in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto, and now in Winnipeg following <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/probe-acquisitions/">our acquisition of Probe Research</a>, we can serve clients across the country.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Our record speaks for itself:</strong> we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><a href="mailto:%20yvonne@stagesite.abacusdata.ca">Contact us</a> with any questions.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Find out more about how we can help your organization by <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/SPARK-ABACUS-SELL_SHEET-2018-EN3.pdf">downloading</a> our corporate profile and service offering.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe loading="lazy" title="Omnibus Survey Services - Abacus Data" width="500" height="281" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dN9UpvpoUUI?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
</div></figure>
<p>The post <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-at-a-crossroads-albertans-expect-a-close-vote-they-are-not-going-to-deliver-and-nobody-thinks-it-ends-there/">Alberta at a Crossroads: Albertans Expect a Close Vote They Are Not Going to Deliver, and Nobody Thinks It Ends There</a> appeared first on <a href="https://abacusdata.ca">Abacus Data</a>.</p>
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<title>Alberta at a Crossroads: Independence Does Not Add Up for Most Albertans, and Many Fear It Ends in Washington</title>
<link>https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-at-a-crossroads-independence-does-not-add-up-for-most-albertans-and-many-fear-it-ends-in-washington/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Robson Fletcher]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Thu, 17 Sep 2026 09:26:00 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Provincial Politics]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Alberta]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Alberta Independence]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://abacusdata.ca/?p=94033</guid>
<description><![CDATA[<p>Independence movements are sold on prosperity. We asked Albertans whether they believe it, what an independent Alberta would feel like, and whether it would end up American. Earlier this year, Abacus Data acquired Manitoba-based Probe Research, one of Western Canada’s most respected public opinion firms. Curtis Brown, Probe’s principal and a pollster who has spent […]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-at-a-crossroads-independence-does-not-add-up-for-most-albertans-and-many-fear-it-ends-in-washington/">Alberta at a Crossroads: Independence Does Not Add Up for Most Albertans, and Many Fear It Ends in Washington</a> appeared first on <a href="https://abacusdata.ca">Abacus Data</a>.</p>
]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Independence movements are sold on prosperity. We asked Albertans whether they believe it, what an independent Alberta would feel like, and whether it would end up American.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Earlier this year, <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/probe-acquisition/" data-type="link" data-id="https://abacusdata.ca/probe-acquisition/">Abacus Data acquired Manitoba-based Probe Research</a>, one of Western Canada’s most respected public opinion firms. <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/team/curtis-brown/" data-type="link" data-id="https://abacusdata.ca/team/curtis-brown/">Curtis Brown</a>, Probe’s principal and a pollster who has spent two decades reading the Prairies, now leads our work across the West, and the combined firm gives clients in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba the depth of a national research house with people who know the ground. <strong><em>Alberta at a Crossroads</em></strong> is the first major study of that expansion.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94020" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-1536x864.png 1536w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape.png 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We built it with <strong>Robson Fletcher</strong>, a <a href="https://robsonfletcher.com/" data-type="link" data-id="https://robsonfletcher.com/">Calgary-based data & storytelling strategist</a> working in partnership with Abacus Data in Alberta.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The result is a five-part series, the most in-depth exploration of public opinion around the referendum, identity, expectations and the future of Alberta in the Canadian federation that anyone has published. We surveyed 1,000 Albertans from September 4 to 7, asked the separation question exactly as it will appear on the ballot, followed up with those who chose Option 2, the option to commence a legal process leading to a binding vote on independence (we call them Option 2 supporters (those who would vote for a legal process leading to a binding vote on independence) throughout), to find out whether they would actually vote to leave, and went deep on how Albertans see themselves, their province, their country and their neighbour to the south. This is a window into the minds of Albertans at a crossroads in the province’s history.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>What we learned</strong></p>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>67% say separation is too big a risk.</strong> 25% say it is a risk worth taking. Even a majority of UCP voters say too big a risk.</li>
<li><strong>On every outcome we tested, more Albertans expect an independent Alberta to be worse than better.</strong> The independence case peaks on getting oil and gas to market and collapses on household finances, pensions and public services.</li>
<li><strong>The feeling is unease and anger, not hope.</strong> Asked how an independent Alberta makes them feel, Albertans chose uneasy (32%) and angry (31%) far ahead of hopeful (16%). Option 2 supporters feel hope and pride; everyone else feels the opposite.</li>
<li><strong>The American question cuts against the movement.</strong> 43% think an independent Alberta would eventually become part of the United States. 16% would want that. Inside the Option 2 coalition, statehood splits supporters down the middle.</li>
<li><strong>67% expect Alberta to still be a province in ten years.</strong></li>
</ul>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The full report contains the item-by-item economic ledger for both sides of the referendum, the emotional map of the province, and the first measure of what Albertans think the American endgame of independence would be.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>To download the full 11-page report, please complete this form</strong>:</p>
<script src="https://js-na3.hsforms.net/forms/embed/343145604.js" defer></script>
<div class="hs-form-frame" data-region="na3" data-form-id="be532cc3-aa72-4210-8195-4aeb598df0c1" data-portal-id="343145604"></div>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>GET ACCESS TO ALL THE DATA</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">You can access the full dataset in an interactive environment for only $24.99. <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-referendum-study-data-explore/">Click here to learn more.</a></p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-referendum-study-data-explore/"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="913" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11-1024x913.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94083" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11-1024x913.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11-300x268.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11-768x685.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11.png 1203w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></a></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Media Inquiries</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">For media inquiries, please contact:</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Robson Fletcher<br><a href="mailto:robson@robsonfletcher.com">robson@robsonfletcher.com</a></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Curtis Brown<br><a href="mailto:curtis@probe-research.com">curtis@probe-research.com</a></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">David Coletto<br><a href="mailto:info@abacusdata.ca">info@abacusdata.ca</a></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Methodology</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Abacus Data surveyed 1,000 Alberta adults online from September 4 to 7, 2026. The data are weighted by region, age and gender to match Alberta’s population according to census data. A probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points, 19 times out of 20. The separation question was presented exactly as it will appear on the October 19 ballot. </p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>About Abacus Data</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We are <strong>Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm</strong>. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-93927" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-1536x864.png 1536w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape.png 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">With offices in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto, and now in Winnipeg following <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/probe-acquisitions/">our acquisition of Probe Research</a>, we can serve clients across the country.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Our record speaks for itself:</strong> we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><a href="mailto:%20yvonne@stagesite.abacusdata.ca">Contact us</a> with any questions.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Find out more about how we can help your organization by <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/SPARK-ABACUS-SELL_SHEET-2018-EN3.pdf">downloading</a> our corporate profile and service offering.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe loading="lazy" title="Omnibus Survey Services - Abacus Data" width="500" height="281" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dN9UpvpoUUI?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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<p>The post <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-at-a-crossroads-independence-does-not-add-up-for-most-albertans-and-many-fear-it-ends-in-washington/">Alberta at a Crossroads: Independence Does Not Add Up for Most Albertans, and Many Fear It Ends in Washington</a> appeared first on <a href="https://abacusdata.ca">Abacus Data</a>.</p>
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<title>Alberta at a Crossroads: A Liberal Prime Minister Is More Popular Than Alberta’s Own Premier</title>
<link>https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-at-a-crossroads-a-liberal-prime-minister-is-more-popular-than-albertas-own-premier/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Coletto]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Wed, 16 Sep 2026 11:25:00 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Provincial Politics]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Alberta]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Alberta Independence]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://abacusdata.ca/?p=94038</guid>
<description><![CDATA[<p>Beneath the referendum sits a political landscape that is not what a province on the edge of leaving should look like. We asked Albertans about direction, about their leaders, and, for the second time since March, how they think each leader would vote on separation. Earlier this year, Abacus Data acquired Manitoba-based Probe Research, one […]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-at-a-crossroads-a-liberal-prime-minister-is-more-popular-than-albertas-own-premier/">Alberta at a Crossroads: A Liberal Prime Minister Is More Popular Than Alberta’s Own Premier</a> appeared first on <a href="https://abacusdata.ca">Abacus Data</a>.</p>
]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Beneath the referendum sits a political landscape that is not what a province on the edge of leaving should look like. We asked Albertans about direction, about their leaders, and, for the second time since March, how they think each leader would vote on separation.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Earlier this year, <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/probe-acquisition/" data-type="link" data-id="https://abacusdata.ca/probe-acquisition/">Abacus Data acquired Manitoba-based Probe Research</a>, one of Western Canada’s most respected public opinion firms. <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/team/curtis-brown/" data-type="link" data-id="https://abacusdata.ca/team/curtis-brown/">Curtis Brown</a>, Probe’s principal and a pollster who has spent two decades reading the Prairies, now leads our work across the West, and the combined firm gives clients in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba the depth of a national research house with people who know the ground. <strong><em>Alberta at a Crossroads</em></strong> is the first major study of that expansion.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94020" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-1536x864.png 1536w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape.png 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We built it with <strong>Robson Fletcher</strong>, a <a href="https://robsonfletcher.com/" data-type="link" data-id="https://robsonfletcher.com/">Calgary-based data & storytelling strategist</a> working in partnership with Abacus Data in Alberta.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The result is a five-part series, the most in-depth exploration of public opinion around the referendum, identity, expectations and the future of Alberta in the Canadian federation that anyone has published. We surveyed 1,000 Albertans from September 4 to 7, asked the separation question exactly as it will appear on the ballot, followed up with those who chose Option 2, the option to commence a legal process leading to a binding vote on independence (we call them Option 2 supporters (those who would vote for a legal process leading to a binding vote on independence) throughout), to find out whether they would actually vote to leave, and went deep on how Albertans see themselves, their province, their country and their neighbour to the south. This is a window into the minds of Albertans at a crossroads in the province’s history.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>What we learned</strong></p>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>54% say Alberta is on the wrong track. 48% say Canada is.</strong> The country the separatists want to leave is judged to be in better shape than the province they want to run.</li>
<li><strong>Provincial vote intention:</strong> Among Albertans who express a provincial vote preference, 52% would support Danielle Smith and the UCP and 39% Naheed Nenshi and the NDP, with 6% choosing the Progressive Tory Party and 3% another party.</li>
<li><strong>A Liberal Prime Minister is more popular in Alberta than its conservative Premier.</strong> Mark Carney is viewed positively by 41%, Pierre Poilievre by 38%, Danielle Smith by 32%. The Premier is net negative in every region and every age group.</li>
<li><strong>Fewer Albertans think the Premier is a separatist than did in March, but they have not decided she is a federalist.</strong> 48% think she would vote to separate, down from 53%. The movement has gone into uncertainty, now 26%.</li>
<li><strong>Her own coalition trusts Poilievre more.</strong> 73% of Option 2 supporters view Poilievre positively; 69% view Smith positively.</li>
<li><strong>Donald Trump looms over everything.</strong> 72% of Albertans view him negatively. The only group in the province that views him favourably is the Option 2 coalition.</li>
</ul>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The full report includes provincial vote intention, net impressions of seven political figures by region, age, party and identity, and the complete March-to-September tracking on where Albertans think their leaders stand.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>To download the full report, please complete this form:</strong></p>
<script src="https://js-na3.hsforms.net/forms/embed/343145604.js" defer></script>
<div class="hs-form-frame" data-region="na3" data-form-id="763f3221-d932-4fb2-97f8-30c2a334e0ca" data-portal-id="343145604"></div>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>GET ACCESS TO ALL THE DATA</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">You can access the full dataset in an interactive environment for only $24.99. <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-referendum-study-data-explore/">Click here to learn more.</a></p>
<figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"><a href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-referendum-study-data-explore/"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="913" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11-1024x913.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94083" style="aspect-ratio:1.12157721796276;width:1024px;height:auto" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11-1024x913.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11-300x268.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11-768x685.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11.png 1203w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></a></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Media Inquiries</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">For media inquiries, please contact:</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Robson Fletcher<br><a href="mailto:robson@robsonfletcher.com">robson@robsonfletcher.com</a></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Curtis Brown<br><a href="mailto:curtis@probe-research.com">curtis@probe-research.com</a></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">David Coletto<br><a href="mailto:info@abacusdata.ca">info@abacusdata.ca</a></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Methodology</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Abacus Data surveyed 1,000 Alberta adults online from September 4 to 7, 2026. The data are weighted by region, age and gender to match Alberta’s population according to census data. A probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points, 19 times out of 20. The separation question was presented exactly as it will appear on the October 19 ballot. </p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>About Abacus Data</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We are <strong>Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm</strong>. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-93927" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-1536x864.png 1536w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape.png 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">With offices in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto, and now in Winnipeg following <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/probe-acquisitions/">our acquisition of Probe Research</a>, we can serve clients across the country.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Our record speaks for itself:</strong> we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><a href="mailto:%20yvonne@stagesite.abacusdata.ca">Contact us</a> with any questions.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Find out more about how we can help your organization by <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/SPARK-ABACUS-SELL_SHEET-2018-EN3.pdf">downloading</a> our corporate profile and service offering.</p>
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<p>The post <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-at-a-crossroads-a-liberal-prime-minister-is-more-popular-than-albertas-own-premier/">Alberta at a Crossroads: A Liberal Prime Minister Is More Popular Than Alberta’s Own Premier</a> appeared first on <a href="https://abacusdata.ca">Abacus Data</a>.</p>
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<title>Abacus Nova Scotia Poll: Houston’s PCs at 40% as Government Standing Improves</title>
<link>https://abacusdata.ca/houstons-pcs-at-40-as-government-standing-improves/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kelly Bennett]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Wed, 16 Sep 2026 10:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Provincial Politics]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Government Performance]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Leader Impressions]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Nova Scotia]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Nova Scotia Liberal Leader]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Nova Scotia Politics]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Nova Scotia Polling]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Provincial politics]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Tim Houston]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Trump]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[U.S. Trade]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://abacusdata.ca/?p=94141</guid>
<description><![CDATA[<p>We’re continuing to raise the bar for public opinion research in Atlantic Canada through new offerings like our Nova Scotia and New Brunswick Omnibus surveys, regularly scheduled surveys tracking public opinion and market insights in these markets. For more information about these products, please send a note to Kelly Bennett. From August 28 to September […]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/houstons-pcs-at-40-as-government-standing-improves/">Abacus Nova Scotia Poll: Houston’s PCs at 40% as Government Standing Improves</a> appeared first on <a href="https://abacusdata.ca">Abacus Data</a>.</p>
]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><em>We’re continuing to raise the bar for public opinion research in Atlantic Canada through new offerings like our Nova Scotia and New Brunswick Omnibus surveys, regularly scheduled surveys tracking public opinion and market insights in these markets. For more information about these products, please send a note to <a href="mailto:kelly@abacusdata.ca">Kelly Bennett</a>.</em></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">From August 28 to September 5, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 600 adults living in Nova Scotia.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Our latest Nova Scotia Omnibus release provides a detailed snapshot of the province’s political landscape as the fall legislative session gets underway. </p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Houston government appears to be regaining some of the ground it lost during a difficult spring. Overall government approval has increased five points since July to 35%, while the share of Nova Scotians who believe the province is headed in the right direction has risen six points to 35%. Wrong-track sentiment has also declined from 46% to 41%. Taken together, the results suggest some of the political damage from the challenging Budget 2026 season is beginning to recede.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">But the political environment remains considerably more competitive than it was before Budget 2026. Tim Houston’s Progressive Conservatives remain at 40% among decided voters, unchanged from our July survey, while Claudia Chender’s NDP has edged up two points to 33%. The Liberals remain at 22% as the party’s leadership race between Becky Druhan and Amanda Mombourquette continues.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The other notable shift is the growing prominence of the U.S. trade conflict. Donald Trump and his administration are now identified by 30% of Nova Scotians as one of the province’s top three issues, nearly double the 16% who said so in our July survey. And dealing with Trump and the U.S. trade conflict is now the Houston government’s highest-rated area of performance.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Here are the full results.<strong><br></strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Top Issues in Nova Scotia: Affordability, Healthcare, and Housing Still Dominate</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Affordability remains overwhelmingly the top issue facing Nova Scotia.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Nearly three-quarters of Nova Scotians (73%) identify the cost of living and inflation as one of the three most important issues facing the province today. Healthcare follows at 50%, while housing affordability and supply is third at 47%.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The economy is next at 36%, followed by Donald Trump and his administration at 30%. Immigration is selected by 17%, while 15% identify climate change and the environment.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide4-1-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94143" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide4-1-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide4-1-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide4-1-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide4-1.png 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Concern about the trade conflict is also evident when Nova Scotians are asked, in their own words, what story in the news is most likely to keep them up at night. References to war, tariffs, trade, Trump, Canada, and costs feature prominently.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide3-2-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94145" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide3-2-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide3-2-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide3-2-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide3-2.png 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">But the underlying provincial agenda remains remarkably consistent. Affordability, healthcare, and housing continue to dominate what Nova Scotians expect their provincial government to address.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>More Nova Scotians Still Think the Province is on the Wrong Track</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">One of the clearest changes since the beginning of the summer is an improvement in perceptions about the direction of the province.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Today, 35% of Nova Scotians believe Premier Houston and the provincial government are moving the province in the right direction, while 41% believe Nova Scotia is off on the wrong track. Another 24% are unsure.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide6-1-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94146" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide6-1-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide6-1-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide6-1-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide6-1.png 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">That compares with 29% who believed the province was headed in the right direction in July and 46% who thought it was on the wrong track. The gap between positive and negative assessments has narrowed considerably, although Nova Scotians remain more likely to be pessimistic than optimistic about the province’s direction.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide7-1-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94147" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide7-1-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide7-1-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide7-1-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide7-1.png 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There are important differences across the province. Half of Cape Bretoners (50%) believe Nova Scotia is headed in the right direction, compared with 39% in Halifax and 26% across Mainland Nova Scotia.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide9-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94148" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide9-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide9-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide9-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide9.png 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Younger Nova Scotians remain more pessimistic, with 48% of those aged 18 to 29 and 50% of those aged 30 to 44 saying the province is on the wrong track.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide8-1-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94149" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide8-1-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide8-1-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide8-1-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide8-1.png 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The findings suggest the deterioration in public mood that accompanied Budget 2026 has begun to reverse, although broader confidence has not returned to where it stood earlier this year.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Government Approval Improves</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Overall approval of the Houston government has also improved.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Today, 35% of Nova Scotians approve of the job the government is doing, while 39% disapprove. Twenty-one percent neither approve nor disapprove, and 4% are unsure.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Approval is up five points from July, when it stood at 30%, while disapproval has edged down one point from 40%.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide10-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94150" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide10-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide10-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide10-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide10.png 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The improvement comes after the sharp decline the government experienced earlier this year. In January, 44% approved of the Houston government. By May, approval had fallen to 30%, where it remained in July before rising to 35% in this latest survey.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide11-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94151" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide11-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide11-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide11-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide11.png 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The government has recovered some, but not all, of the public support it lost during the spring.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Houston’s PCs Hold at 40% as NDP Edges Up</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Despite the improvement in broader public attitudes, provincial vote intention has changed very little.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">If a provincial election were held today, 40% of decided voters would support Tim Houston’s Progressive Conservatives, compared with 33% for Claudia Chender’s NDP and 22% for the Liberals. The Green Party stands at 1%, while 5% would vote for another party.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Compared with our July survey, PC and Liberal support are unchanged, while the NDP has gained two points. That leaves the PCs with a seven-point lead over the NDP and an 18-point advantage over the Liberals.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide14-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94152" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide14-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide14-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide14-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide14.png 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Houston government’s approval and right-direction numbers have therefore improved without producing an increase in PC vote share. Instead, the NDP has made a modest gain while the governing party continues to hold its ground.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Regional, Generational, and Gender Divides Continue to Shape Nova Scotia Politics</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The PCs continue to draw support from across Nova Scotia, but the political map varies by region.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In Cape Breton, the Progressive Conservatives lead with 51% of the decided vote, compared with 21% for the Liberals and 19% for the NDP. In Halifax, the NDP leads with 41%, followed closely by the PCs at 38% and the Liberals at 20%. Across Mainland Nova Scotia, the PCs lead with 39%, compared with 28% for the NDP and 24% for the Liberals.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide15-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94153" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide15-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide15-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide15-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide15.png 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The same divide appears by age. Among voters under 45, the NDP leads with 39%, compared with 33% for the PCs and 18% for the Liberals. Among those aged 45 and older, the PCs hold a much larger advantage, with 44% compared with 28% for the NDP and 24% for the Liberals.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide16-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94154" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide16-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide16-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide16-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide16.png 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Gender also continues to divide the two leading parties. Among men, 47% support the PCs compared with 26% for the NDP and 21% for the Liberals. Among women, the NDP leads with 39%, compared with 33% for the PCs and 22% for the Liberals.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide17-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94155" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide17-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide17-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide17-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide17.png 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">These patterns continue to define the coalitions supporting the PCs and NDP, with the PCs strongest among older voters and men, while the NDP performs better among younger Nova Scotians and women.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Government Performance Improves, But Affordability and Housing Remain Weak Spots</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Houston government’s performance ratings show a mixed picture, with some areas improving while others remain challenging.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Its strongest rating is now for dealing with Donald Trump’s administration and the U.S. trade conflict, where 38% of Nova Scotians say the government is doing a good job, up from 29% in July.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Thirty-six percent give the government a positive rating for securing major economic development projects, and the same proportion say it is doing a good job expanding Nova Scotia’s role in the defence sector. Another 35% rate the government positively on managing growth and building infrastructure, while 33% say the same about growing Nova Scotia’s economy.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide12-1-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94189" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide12-1-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide12-1-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide12-1-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide12-1.png 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The government’s weakest ratings continue to be closely connected to household financial pressure. Just 17% say it is doing a good job making housing more available and affordable, while 16% rate it positively for helping Nova Scotians cope with inflation and rising costs. Twenty-six percent rate the government positively on improving healthcare.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">That disconnect remains one of the most important features of Nova Scotia’s political environment. Affordability, healthcare, and housing are the three issues Nova Scotians care about most but remain among the government’s more difficult areas of performance.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>PCs Retain Their Advantage on Fiscal Management</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Despite the difficult debate surrounding Budget 2026, the Progressive Conservatives continue to hold an important comparative advantage on fiscal management.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Twenty-seven percent of Nova Scotians believe Tim Houston and the PCs would be most effective at managing the provincial budget, compared with 18% who choose Claudia Chender and the NDP and 13% who choose Iain Rankin and the Liberals.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide23-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94157" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide23-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide23-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide23-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide23.png 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The PCs also lead on managing the province’s fiscal situation, at 26% compared with 17% for the NDP and 13% for the Liberals, and on spending taxpayers’ money, at 25% compared with 19% for the NDP and 13% for the Liberals.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The NDP holds a narrow advantage on consulting and communicating with the public, with 27% choosing Chender and the NDP compared with 26% for Houston and the PCs.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Fiscal management therefore remains one of the PCs’ most important political strengths, even after a spring in which the provincial budget became a major source of political difficulty for the government.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Claudia Chender Remains the Most Positively Viewed Provincial Leader</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Claudia Chender continues to have the strongest personal image of Nova Scotia’s provincial political leaders.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Thirty-eight percent of Nova Scotians have a positive impression of the NDP leader, compared with 18% who have a negative impression, giving her a net favourable rating of +20.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Premier Tim Houston is viewed positively by 35% and negatively by 41%, producing a net favourable rating of -6. Interim Liberal Leader Iain Rankin has a net rating of -3, while Green Leader Anthony Edmonds has a net rating of -9.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide18-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94158" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide18-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide18-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide18-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide18.png 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The NDP also receives relatively positive evaluations for its performance as the Official Opposition. Thirty-six percent approve of the way Chender and the NDP are handling that role, compared with 16% who disapprove. Approval is up two points from July.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide20-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94159" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide20-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide20-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide20-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide20.png 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The result continues an interesting political dynamic from our summer polling: Houston’s PCs lead province-wide on vote intention, while Chender enjoys the strongest personal image of any provincial leader.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Nova Scotia’s Liberal Leadership Race Has Yet to Break Through</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Nova Scotia Liberals are in the middle of a leadership race between Becky Druhan and Amanda Mombourquette. So far, neither candidate has established a clear advantage with the broader electorate.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Twenty-four percent of Nova Scotians have a positive impression of Druhan, compared with 21% for Mombourquette. When asked whom they would prefer to see become the next Liberal leader, 10% choose Druhan and 9% choose Mombourquette.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide25-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94160" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide25-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide25-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide25-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide25.png 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Most Nova Scotians, however, have yet to choose a side. A majority, 56%, are unsure, while another 25% prefer neither candidate.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide27-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94161" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide27-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide27-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide27-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide27.png 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Even among current Liberal voters, 63% are unsure who they would prefer as leader.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide26-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94162" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide26-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide26-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide26-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide26.png 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The same uncertainty carries through when Nova Scotians are asked about specific leadership qualities. Druhan holds a modest advantage on winning the next provincial election (10% to 6%), understanding the challenges facing Nova Scotians (9% to 6%), and providing strong and effective leadership (9% to 7%). But between 46% and 52% say they don’t know enough to choose between the candidates across any of the seven attributes tested.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide29-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94163" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide29-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide29-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide29-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide29.png 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">For now, the Liberal leadership race remains largely undefined in the eyes of the broader electorate, leaving considerable room for the campaign itself to shape public perceptions.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Nova Scotians Back Canada’s Response to Trump and the U.S. Trade War</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The U.S. trade conflict is becoming a more significant part of Nova Scotia’s political environment.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Donald Trump himself remains deeply unpopular in the province. Just 8% of Nova Scotians have a positive impression of the U.S. President, compared with 81% who have a negative impression, giving him a net favourable rating of -73.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There is also overwhelming support for Canada standing firm in the latest dispute.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Eight in ten Nova Scotians (80%) believe the Carney government made the right decision to suspend trade negotiations rather than accept the terms offered by the United States, even if that means higher tariffs and more economic uncertainty. Just 12% believe Canada should have accepted the terms, while 8% are unsure.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide31-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94164" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide31-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide31-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide31-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide31.png 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Nova Scotians are less certain about how quickly the dispute will be resolved. Only 15% expect Canada and the United States to return to the negotiating table soon and reach an agreement that removes most of the new tariffs. Four in ten (40%) expect the dispute to drag on for a while before an agreement is eventually reached. Another 17% expect further escalation, while 16% believe the dispute will become a lasting feature of the Canada-U.S. relationship, with no agreement and even an end to CUSMA. Another 12% are unsure.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide32-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94165" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide32-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide32-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide32-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide32.png 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Despite that uncertainty, confidence in the federal government’s handling of the dispute is relatively high. Sixty-nine percent have confidence in Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Government of Canada to manage the dispute in Canada’s best interests, compared with 24% who have little or no confidence. Seven percent are unsure.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide33-1-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94191" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide33-1-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide33-1-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide33-1-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide33-1.png 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">For the Houston government, the issue is also emerging as an area of relative strength. Thirty-eight percent rate its performance dealing with Trump’s administration and the U.S. trade conflict positively, making it the government’s highest-rated area of performance among those we tested.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The Upshot</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Houston government entered the fall legislative session with its political standing showing signs of improvement.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">After a challenging Budget 2026 season, there are clearer signs that some of the political damage from the spring is beginning to recede. Government approval has increased five points since July to 35%, the share of Nova Scotians who believe the province is headed in the right direction has risen from 29% to 35%, and fewer people now believe the province is on the wrong track.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">At the ballot box, however, the picture has barely changed. The PCs remain at 40% among decided voters, while the NDP has edged up to 33% and the Liberals remain at 22%. The PCs also retain an important comparative advantage on fiscal management, while Claudia Chender remains the province’s most positively viewed provincial political leader.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">That leaves the Houston government in a stronger position than it was at the end of the spring session, but still operating in a much more competitive political environment than it enjoyed before Budget 2026. Broader public confidence is beginning to recover, but that improvement has not translated into additional PC support. And affordability, healthcare, and housing continue to dominate public expectations and remain among the government’s more difficult areas of performance.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The U.S. trade conflict adds another dimension. Nova Scotians overwhelmingly support Canada standing firm against the Trump administration, confidence in Prime Minister Carney’s handling of the dispute is high, and responding to Trump and the trade conflict has become the Houston government’s strongest-rated area of performance.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Meanwhile, the opposition landscape continues to evolve. Chender and the NDP have edged closer to the PCs, while the Liberal leadership race has yet to produce a clear public favourite.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Now, with the legislature into its second week, the question is whether the Houston government can sustain this improvement through the fall sitting and turn it into stronger public confidence on the issues Nova Scotians care about most.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>About the Nova Scotia Omnibus Survey</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This research was conducted by Abacus Data through our Nova Scotia Omnibus Survey, part of our ongoing investment in public opinion and market research across Atlantic Canada.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The survey was fielded online from August 28 to September 5, 2026, with 600 adult Nova Scotians. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on PureSpectrum. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of this size is +/-3.96 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Nova Scotia’s population by age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>About Abacus Data</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We are <strong>Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm</strong>. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-93927" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-1536x864.png 1536w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape.png 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.</p>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Our record speaks for itself:</strong> we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><a href="mailto:%20yvonne@stagesite.abacusdata.ca">Contact us</a> with any questions.</p>
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<p>The post <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/houstons-pcs-at-40-as-government-standing-improves/">Abacus Nova Scotia Poll: Houston’s PCs at 40% as Government Standing Improves</a> appeared first on <a href="https://abacusdata.ca">Abacus Data</a>.</p>
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<title>Alberta at a Crossroads: Two-Thirds Will Vote to Stay, and a Vote to Proceed Is Not a Vote to Leave</title>
<link>https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-at-a-crossroads-two-thirds-will-vote-to-stay-and-a-vote-to-proceed-is-not-a-vote-to-leave/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Curtis Brown]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Tue, 15 Sep 2026 10:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Provincial Politics]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Alberta]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Alberta Independence]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://abacusdata.ca/?p=94030</guid>
<description><![CDATA[<p>How will Albertans vote? We asked Albertans the separation question in the exact words that will appear on the ballot, then asked the people who would vote to commence the process a question no one else has asked: if the binding referendum came, would you actually vote to leave? Earlier this year, Abacus Data acquired […]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-at-a-crossroads-two-thirds-will-vote-to-stay-and-a-vote-to-proceed-is-not-a-vote-to-leave/">Alberta at a Crossroads: Two-Thirds Will Vote to Stay, and a Vote to Proceed Is Not a Vote to Leave</a> appeared first on <a href="https://abacusdata.ca">Abacus Data</a>.</p>
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph">How will Albertans vote? We asked Albertans the separation question in the exact words that will appear on the ballot, then asked the people who would vote to commence the process a question no one else has asked: <strong>if the binding referendum came, would you actually vote to leave?</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Earlier this year, <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/probe-acquisition/" data-type="link" data-id="https://abacusdata.ca/probe-acquisition/">Abacus Data acquired Manitoba-based Probe Research</a>, one of Western Canada’s most respected public opinion firms. <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/team/curtis-brown/" data-type="link" data-id="https://abacusdata.ca/team/curtis-brown/">Curtis Brown</a>, Probe’s principal and a pollster who has spent two decades reading the Prairies, now leads our work across the West, and the combined firm gives clients in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba the depth of a national research house with people who know the ground. <strong><em>Alberta at a Crossroads</em></strong> is the first major study of that expansion.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94020" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-1536x864.png 1536w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape.png 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We built it with <strong>Robson Fletcher</strong>, a <a href="https://robsonfletcher.com/" data-type="link" data-id="https://robsonfletcher.com/">Calgary-based data & storytelling strategist</a> working in partnership with Abacus Data in Alberta.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The result is a five-part series, the most in-depth exploration of public opinion around the referendum, identity, expectations and the future of Alberta in the Canadian federation that anyone has published. We surveyed 1,000 Albertans from September 4 to 7, asked the separation question exactly as it will appear on the ballot, followed up with those who chose Option 2, the option to commence a legal process leading to a binding vote on independence (we call them Option 2 supporters (those who would vote for a legal process leading to a binding vote on independence) throughout), to find out whether they would actually vote to leave, and went deep on how Albertans see themselves, their province, their country and their neighbour to the south. This is a window into the minds of Albertans at a crossroads in the province’s history.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>What we learned</strong></p>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>64% would vote to remain, 24% to commence the process.</strong> With undecided leaners allocated, 67% to 27%. 84% of remain voters say nothing will change their minds.</li>
<li><strong>Rural Alberta is the only place it is close</strong>, and the only region with a large undecided vote.</li>
<li><strong>A vote to commence is not a vote to leave.</strong> Two-thirds of Option 2 supporters would vote to separate if the binding question arrived; the rest would not, or say it depends. That puts the separatist vote at 18% of Albertans.</li>
<li><strong>Only a quarter of Option 2 voters say they want a country.</strong> More say Albertans deserve a direct say, want a better deal within Canada, or want to send Ottawa a message.</li>
<li><strong>The UCP is split down the middle.</strong> 48% of 2023 UCP voters would remain and 43% would commence. NDP voters are 94% remain.</li>
<li><strong>It has reached the kitchen table.</strong> 63% have discussed it with family in the past month, 23% say it has strained a relationship and 38% have avoided raising it to keep the peace.</li>
</ul>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The full report includes our range estimate for the Option 2 share on October 19, a profile of who is voting each way and why, the two-step funnel from the ballot to separation, and the first data on how the referendum is dividing families, friendships and workplaces.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>To download the full 12-page report, please complete this form:</strong></p>
<script src="https://js-na3.hsforms.net/forms/embed/343145604.js" defer></script>
<div class="hs-form-frame" data-region="na3" data-form-id="f4201906-6705-4ae7-a66a-62bed1a69f45" data-portal-id="343145604"></div>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>GET ACCESS TO ALL THE DATA</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">You can access the full dataset in an interactive environment for only $24.99. <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-referendum-study-data-explore/">Click here to learn more.</a></p>
<figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"><a href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-referendum-study-data-explore/"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="913" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11-1024x913.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94083" style="aspect-ratio:1.12157721796276;width:1024px;height:auto" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11-1024x913.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11-300x268.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11-768x685.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11.png 1203w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></a></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Media Inquiries</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">For media inquiries, please contact:</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Robson Fletcher<br><a href="mailto:robson@robsonfletcher.com">robson@robsonfletcher.com</a></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Curtis Brown<br><a href="mailto:curtis@probe-research.com">curtis@probe-research.com</a></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">David Coletto<br><a href="mailto:info@abacusdata.ca">info@abacusdata.ca</a></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Methodology</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Abacus Data surveyed 1,000 Alberta adults online from September 4 to 7, 2026. The data are weighted by region, age and gender to match Alberta’s population according to census data. A probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points, 19 times out of 20. The separation question was presented exactly as it will appear on the October 19 ballot. </p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>About Abacus Data</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We are <strong>Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm</strong>. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-93927" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-1536x864.png 1536w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape.png 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">With offices in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto, and now in Winnipeg following <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/probe-acquisitions/">our acquisition of Probe Research</a>, we can serve clients across the country.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Our record speaks for itself:</strong> we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><a href="mailto:%20yvonne@stagesite.abacusdata.ca">Contact us</a> with any questions.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Find out more about how we can help your organization by <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/SPARK-ABACUS-SELL_SHEET-2018-EN3.pdf">downloading</a> our corporate profile and service offering.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe loading="lazy" title="Omnibus Survey Services - Abacus Data" width="500" height="281" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dN9UpvpoUUI?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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<p>The post <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-at-a-crossroads-two-thirds-will-vote-to-stay-and-a-vote-to-proceed-is-not-a-vote-to-leave/">Alberta at a Crossroads: Two-Thirds Will Vote to Stay, and a Vote to Proceed Is Not a Vote to Leave</a> appeared first on <a href="https://abacusdata.ca">Abacus Data</a>.</p>
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<title>Alberta at a Crossroads: Albertans Hold the Grievance and the Flag at the Same Time</title>
<link>https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-at-a-crossroads-albertans-hold-the-grievance-and-the-flag-at-the-same-time/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Coletto]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Mon, 14 Sep 2026 11:32:00 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Provincial Politics]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Alberta]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Alberta Independence]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://abacusdata.ca/?p=94019</guid>
<description><![CDATA[<p>Every independence movement starts with an identity. So before we asked Albertans how they would vote, we asked them who they are. Earlier this year, Abacus Data acquired Manitoba-based Probe Research, one of Western Canada’s most respected public opinion firms. Curtis Brown, Probe’s principal and a pollster who has spent two decades reading the Prairies, […]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-at-a-crossroads-albertans-hold-the-grievance-and-the-flag-at-the-same-time/">Alberta at a Crossroads: Albertans Hold the Grievance and the Flag at the Same Time</a> appeared first on <a href="https://abacusdata.ca">Abacus Data</a>.</p>
]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Every independence movement starts with an identity. So before we asked Albertans how they would vote, we asked them who they are.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Earlier this year, <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/probe-acquisition/" data-type="link" data-id="https://abacusdata.ca/probe-acquisition/">Abacus Data acquired Manitoba-based Probe Research</a>, one of Western Canada’s most respected public opinion firms. <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/team/curtis-brown/" data-type="link" data-id="https://abacusdata.ca/team/curtis-brown/">Curtis Brown</a>, Probe’s principal and a pollster who has spent two decades reading the Prairies, now leads our work across the West, and the combined firm gives clients in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba the depth of a national research house with people who know the ground. <strong><em>Alberta at a Crossroads</em></strong> is the first major study of that expansion.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94020" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape-1536x864.png 1536w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/probe_acquisition_announcement_landscape.png 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We built it with <strong>Robson Fletche</strong>r, a <a href="https://robsonfletcher.com/" data-type="link" data-id="https://robsonfletcher.com/">Calgary-based data & storytelling strategist</a> working in partnership with Abacus Data in Alberta. </p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The result is a five-part series, the most in-depth exploration of public opinion around the referendum, identity, expectations and the future of Alberta in the Canadian federation that anyone has published. We surveyed 1,000 Albertans from September 4 to 7, asked the separation question exactly as it will appear on the ballot, followed up with those who chose Option 2, the option to commence a legal process leading to a binding vote on independence (we call them Option 2 supporters (those who would vote for a legal process leading to a binding vote on independence) throughout), to find out whether they would actually vote to leave, and went deep on how Albertans see themselves, their province, their country and their neighbour to the south. This is a window into the minds of Albertans at a crossroads in the province’s history.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>What we learned</strong></p>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>Half of Albertans will not choose.</strong> 49% say they are equally Albertan and Canadian. Those who lean Canadian outnumber those who lean Albertan three to two. In Scotland before its referendum, two-thirds put Scottishness first. Alberta is close to the reverse.</li>
<li><strong>Albertans are, on average, slightly more attached to Canada than to Alberta.</strong> The only groups where that reverses are UCP voters and those who put being Albertan first.</li>
<li><strong>The grievance is real and it is majority opinion.</strong> 69% agree Alberta contributes more than it gets back. 60% agree its interests are ignored in Ottawa whoever governs.</li>
<li><strong>So is the attachment.</strong> 83% are proud to be Canadian. 73% say Canada benefits Alberta’s economy. The same people hold both views.</li>
<li><strong>And the reform hypothesis holds.</strong> 60% of Albertans, and 81% of UCP voters, agree that if Alberta had more power within Canada there would be no serious talk of separation.</li>
</ul>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The full report breaks down identity and attachment by region, age, party, place of birth and time in the province, and shows where the grievance is deepest and where pride in Canada survives even among those who feel Albertan first.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>To download the full 12-page report, please complete this form:</strong></p>
<script src="https://js-na3.hsforms.net/forms/embed/343145604.js" defer></script>
<div class="hs-form-frame" data-region="na3" data-form-id="a3c6c22c-437c-4f18-a73c-92eb9d5a8edf" data-portal-id="343145604"></div>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>GET ACCESS TO ALL THE DATA</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">You can access the full dataset in an interactive environment for only $24.99. <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-referendum-study-data-explore/">Click here to learn more.</a></p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-referendum-study-data-explore/"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="913" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11-1024x913.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94083" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11-1024x913.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11-300x268.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11-768x685.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-11.png 1203w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></a></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Media Inquiries</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">For media inquiries, please contact:</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Robson Fletcher<br><a href="mailto:robson@robsonfletcher.com">robson@robsonfletcher.com</a></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Curtis Brown<br><a href="mailto:curtis@probe-research.com">curtis@probe-research.com</a></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">David Coletto<br><a href="mailto:info@abacusdata.ca">info@abacusdata.ca</a></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Methodology</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Abacus Data surveyed 1,000 Alberta adults online from September 4 to 7, 2026. The data are weighted by region, age and gender to match Alberta’s population according to census data. A probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points, 19 times out of 20. The separation question was presented exactly as it will appear on the October 19 ballot. </p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>About Abacus Data</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We are <strong>Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm</strong>. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-93927" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape-1536x864.png 1536w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/abacus_vision_2_callsfirst_landscape.png 1920w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">With offices in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto, and now in Winnipeg following <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/probe-acquisitions/">our acquisition of Probe Research</a>, we can serve clients across the country.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Our record speaks for itself:</strong> we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><a href="mailto:%20yvonne@stagesite.abacusdata.ca">Contact us</a> with any questions.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Find out more about how we can help your organization by <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/SPARK-ABACUS-SELL_SHEET-2018-EN3.pdf">downloading</a> our corporate profile and service offering.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"></p>
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe loading="lazy" title="Omnibus Survey Services - Abacus Data" width="500" height="281" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dN9UpvpoUUI?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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<p>The post <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-at-a-crossroads-albertans-hold-the-grievance-and-the-flag-at-the-same-time/">Alberta at a Crossroads: Albertans Hold the Grievance and the Flag at the Same Time</a> appeared first on <a href="https://abacusdata.ca">Abacus Data</a>.</p>
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<title>As Carney Heads to Europe, 4 in 5 Canadians Support Closer Integration with the EU</title>
<link>https://abacusdata.ca/as-carney-heads-to-europe-4-in-5-canadians-support-closer-integration-with-the-eu/</link>
<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sandro Ayrle]]></dc:creator>
<pubDate>Mon, 14 Sep 2026 09:36:00 +0000</pubDate>
<category><![CDATA[Canadian Politics]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[International Affairs]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[EU]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Europe and Canada]]></category>
<category><![CDATA[Market Carney and Europe]]></category>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://abacusdata.ca/?p=94098</guid>
<description><![CDATA[<p>Our latest national survey finds broad and growing support for Canada deepening its relationship with Europe, as Prime Minister Mark Carney prepares to travel to Strasbourg and Liverpool amid speculation that the trip could include a significant new announcement about Canada’s relationship with its European partners. The survey was conducted from September 4 to 9, […]</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/as-carney-heads-to-europe-4-in-5-canadians-support-closer-integration-with-the-eu/">As Carney Heads to Europe, 4 in 5 Canadians Support Closer Integration with the EU</a> appeared first on <a href="https://abacusdata.ca">Abacus Data</a>.</p>
]]></description>
<content:encoded><![CDATA[
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Our latest national survey finds broad and growing support for Canada deepening its relationship with Europe, as Prime Minister Mark Carney prepares to travel to Strasbourg and Liverpool amid speculation that the trip could include a significant new announcement about Canada’s relationship with its European partners.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The survey was conducted from September 4 to 9, just days before the Prime Minister’s September 15 to 17 trip to Europe.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In Strasbourg, Carney is scheduled to address the European Parliament, attend European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the European Union address, and meet with members of the European Parliament. He will then travel to Liverpool for his first meeting with UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham, with defence and security, energy, artificial intelligence, and critical minerals expected to be on the agenda.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The visit comes as the federal government continues to frame closer ties with Europe as part of a broader effort to diversify Canada’s economic and security relationships and reduce its vulnerability to an increasingly unpredictable United States.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Our new polling suggests there is considerable public support for that direction including almost half who would support full out membership in the EU.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Eighty percent of Canadians say Canada should deepen strategic cooperation with the European Union on foreign policy, defence, and economic priorities. That is up six points since we last asked the question in February.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Eighty-one percent support closer integration between Canada and the EU while Canada remains outside the European Union, including making it easier to trade, travel, work and study and to cooperate on security.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And when Canadians are asked about the values, way of life, and outlook on the world they share with others, 56% say Canada has more in common with the countries of the European Union than with the United States. Just 16% say Canada has more in common with the United States.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The economic argument for diversification also resonates.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Sixty-one percent believe a closer Canada-EU relationship would increase Canada’s economic independence by improving access to markets and essential supplies without relying too heavily on any one country. Only 9% think it would reduce Canada’s economic independence.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And when Canadians are asked what concerns them more about the future of Canada’s relationships with Europe and the United States, 39% point to Canada continuing to rely too heavily on the United States. Just 16% are more concerned that closer ties with the EU could weaken Canada’s relationship with the United States.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The overall picture is therefore quite clear.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Canadians are increasingly positive about Europe, overwhelmingly open to deeper cooperation, supportive of a much broader economic and security relationship, and more worried about continued dependence on the United States than they are about the consequences of moving closer to Europe.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Nearly half of Canadians say they would support Canada becoming a member state of the European Union</strong>, </p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Another 30% are opposed the idea and 21% who are unsure. </p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Support is up slightly from 48% in February and from 46% in 2025, while the share who are unsure has fallen from 25% in 2025 to 21% today. </p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-12-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94121" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-12-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-12-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-12-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-12-1536x864.png 1536w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-12.png 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The idea divides Canadians politically: 64% of Liberal voters support EU membership, as do 56% of NDP voters and 57% of Bloc Québécois voters, while only 33% of Conservative voters support it and 51% are opposed. </p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Regionally, support is highest in Quebec at 55%, followed by British Columbia at 54% and Ontario at 51%.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-13-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94122" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-13-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-13-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-13-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-13-1536x864.png 1536w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-13.png 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Views of Europe Have Improved Since February</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The change since February is particularly noticeable in how Canadians view some of Canada’s major international partners.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Seventy-four percent of Canadians now have a positive impression of the United Kingdom. That is up eight points from February. Fifteen percent have a negative impression, down three points.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The European Union itself is viewed positively by 71% of Canadians, up five points since February. Sixteen percent have a negative impression of the EU, unchanged from February.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Views of Mexico have also improved considerably. Sixty-four percent now have a positive impression of Mexico, an increase of ten points since February, while negative impressions have fallen four points to 22%.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Views of China have improved somewhat, although opinion remains more negative than positive. Thirty-six percent have a positive impression of China, up three points, while 50% have a negative impression, up one point.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The United States stands apart.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Only 21% of Canadians now have a positive impression of the United States, down three points since February. Seventy-five percent have a negative impression, an increase of six points.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">That means the gap between positive impressions of the European Union and positive impressions of the United States now stands at 50 points.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The United Kingdom is 53 points ahead of the United States.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide3-1024x576.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-94099" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide3-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide3-300x169.jpg 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide3-768x432.jpg 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide3.jpg 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And these attitudes toward Europe are not confined to any one part of the country.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Positive impressions of the European Union reach 74% in British Columbia, 71% in Ontario, 77% in Quebec, and 62% in Atlantic Canada. Even in Alberta, where political attitudes toward the federal government are considerably different from the rest of the country, 68% have a positive impression of the EU.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide4-1024x576.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-94100" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide4-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide4-300x169.jpg 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide4-768x432.jpg 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide4.jpg 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There is a much larger partisan divide, but even there, Europe is viewed positively by a majority of Conservative voters.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Eighty-five percent of current Liberal supporters have a positive impression of the EU, as do 79% of NDP supporters and 80% of Bloc Québécois supporters. Among Conservative voters, 58% have a positive impression.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">By comparison, only 37% of Conservative voters have a positive impression of the United States. Among Liberal voters the number is 12%, among NDP voters 11%, and among Bloc voters just 3%.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide5-1024x576.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-94101" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide5-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide5-300x169.jpg 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide5-768x432.jpg 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide5.jpg 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Support for Deeper Strategic Cooperation Rises to 80%</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">When we ask directly whether Canada should deepen strategic cooperation with the European Union on foreign policy, defence, and economic priorities, 80% say yes.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Forty-four percent strongly support doing so and another 36% somewhat support it. Only 10% are opposed. This represents a meaningful change since February. At that time, 74% supported deeper strategic cooperation: 39% strongly and 35% somewhat. Total support has therefore risen six points.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Strong support alone is up five points, while the share who are unsure has fallen from 15% to 10%.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Opposition, meanwhile, is unchanged at 10%.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide6-1024x576.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-94103" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide6-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide6-300x169.jpg 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide6-768x432.jpg 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide6.jpg 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In other words, the movement since February has not come from opponents changing their minds. It has largely come from previously uncertain Canadians moving toward support and from existing supporters becoming more enthusiastic.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And support is broad.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">It reaches 84% in British Columbia, 79% in Alberta, 74% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 80% in Ontario, 82% in Quebec, and 73% in Atlantic Canada.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The partisan differences are considerable but do not fundamentally change the overall finding.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Ninety-two percent of Liberal voters support deeper cooperation with the EU. So do 92% of NDP voters and 86% of Bloc voters.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Among Conservative voters, support is lower but still reaches 69%. Twenty-two percent are opposed.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide8-1024x576.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-94104" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide8-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide8-768x432.jpg 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide8-300x169.jpg 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide8.jpg 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h5 class="wp-block-heading">Four in Five Support Closer Canada-EU Integration</h5>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We also asked Canadians about a broader idea: closer integration between Canada and the European Union while Canada remains outside the EU.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The question described closer integration as potentially making it easier to trade, travel, work and study in each other’s countries and to cooperate on security.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Eighty-one percent support the idea. Forty-two percent strongly support it and 39% somewhat support it. Only 10% are opposed, while 9% are unsure.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide12-1-1024x576.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-94106" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide12-1-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide12-1-300x169.jpg 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide12-1-768x432.jpg 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide12-1.jpg 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Once again, the support cuts across regions and political affiliations.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Support reaches 85% in British Columbia, 75% in Alberta, 78% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 82% in Ontario, 83% in Quebec, and 75% in Atlantic Canada.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Among Liberal voters, 94% support closer integration. Among NDP voters, the number is 91%, and among Bloc voters, 84%. Among Conservative voters, 70% support it.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-14-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94136" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-14-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-14-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-14-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-14-1536x864.png 1536w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-14.png 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Canadians Feel They Have More in Common with Europe than the United States</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The shift is not only about trade or national strategy.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">It is also about identity.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">When Canadians are asked to think specifically about shared values, way of life, and outlook on the world, 56% say Canada has more in common with the countries of the European Union than it does with the United States.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Twenty-eight percent say Canada has <strong>much more</strong> in common with EU countries and another 28% say somewhat more. Twenty percent believe Canada has about equally as much in common with both. Only 16% say Canada has more in common with the United States, including 9% who say much more.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide9-1-1024x576.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-94107" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide9-1-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide9-1-300x169.jpg 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide9-1-768x432.jpg 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide9-1.jpg 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The perception is broad geographically.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Sixty percent of British Columbians say Canada has more in common with the EU, as do 54% in Ontario, 60% in Quebec, and 58% in Atlantic Canada.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Even in Alberta, 48% say Canada has more in common with Europe compared with 22% who choose the United States.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The partisan divide is larger. Sixty-nine percent of Liberal voters, 64% of NDP voters, and 66% of Bloc voters feel Canada has more in common with Europe.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-15-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-94137" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-15-1024x576.png 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-15-300x169.png 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-15-768x432.png 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-15-1536x864.png 1536w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/image-15.png 1600w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Among Conservative voters, 42% say Europe while 28% say the United States. Another 22% say Canada has about equally as much in common with both.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide11-1024x576.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-94108" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide11-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide11-300x169.jpg 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide11-768x432.jpg 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide11.jpg 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>What Canadians Would Want in a Broader Canada-EU Agreement</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The breadth of support becomes even clearer when we move from the general idea of integration to the specific elements that could be included in a broader Canada-EU agreement.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The most popular component is expanded trade, investment, and secure supply chains, including building more reliable supply chains in energy, critical minerals, and advanced technology. Seventy-nine percent support including that in a broader agreement.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Seventy-six percent support making it easier for Canadians and Europeans to study, complete training, and participate in research in each other’s countries.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Seventy-four percent support deeper defence-industrial and security cooperation, including jointly developing and buying defence equipment and cooperating on cybersecurity, foreign interference, military training, and Arctic security.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Seventy-two percent support allowing longer visits for travel or family without automatically conferring the right to work.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The same share, 72%, support making it easier for Canadians to work temporarily in EU countries and Europeans to work temporarily in Canada.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Even making it easier to purchase residential property receives majority support, although at 53% it is considerably less popular than the other elements tested.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide15-1024x576.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-94109" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide15-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide15-300x169.jpg 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide15-768x432.jpg 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide15.jpg 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The pattern tells us something important about what Canadians appear to mean when they say they favour a closer relationship with Europe.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The strongest support is for a relationship built around economic resilience, supply chains, education, research, defence, and security. Mobility also attracts broad support.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Trade and Security Are the Priorities</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">When we force Canadians to prioritize and allow them to choose no more than two areas for a possible Canada-EU agreement, the hierarchy becomes even clearer.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Fifty-eight percent choose expanding trade, investment, and secure supply chains.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Thirty-eight percent choose expanding defence-industrial and shared-security cooperation.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">After that there is a substantial drop.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Twenty-one percent prioritize study, training, and research opportunities, while another 21% prioritize making it easier to work in each other’s countries.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Fourteen percent select longer stays for travel or family visits and 8% select easier access to residential property.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Only 4% say none of these should be priorities.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide18-1024x576.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-94111" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide18-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide18-300x169.jpg 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide18-768x432.jpg 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide18.jpg 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The age differences here are noteworthy.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Among Canadians aged 60 and over, 75% prioritize expanding trade, investment, and secure supply chains and 51% prioritize defence and security.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Younger Canadians put somewhat more emphasis on mobility and education.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Among those aged 18 to 29, 38% prioritize trade and secure supply chains, 38% study, training and research, and 30% the ability to work in each other’s countries.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There appears, therefore, to be more than one route through which Canadians see value in a closer European relationship.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Older Canadians are especially focused on economic resilience and security. Younger Canadians are more likely to see opportunity through education, research, work, and mobility.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide19-1024x576.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-94112" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide19-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide19-768x432.jpg 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide19-300x169.jpg 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide19.jpg 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Ironically</strong>, <strong>A Closer European Relationship Is Seen as Strengthening Canadian Economic Independence</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">One of the most consequential findings in the survey is what Canadians think a closer relationship with Europe would mean for Canadian economic independence.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We defined economic independence as Canada’s ability to access markets and essential supplies without relying too heavily on any one country. Sixty-one percent believe a closer relationship with the EU would increase that independence. Twenty percent think it would increase it a lot and 41% somewhat. Sixteen percent expect no real impact. Only 9% think closer European ties would reduce Canadian economic independence.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide24-1024x576.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-94114" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide24-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide24-300x169.jpg 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide24-768x432.jpg 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide24.jpg 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Canadians Are More Worried About Relying on the United States than Moving Closer to Europe</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We also asked Canadians to choose which concern weighs more heavily on them when they think about Canada’s future relationships with the European Union and the United States.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Thirty-nine percent say they are more concerned about Canada continuing to rely too heavily on the United States.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Sixteen percent are more concerned that closer ties with the EU could weaken Canada’s relationship with the United States.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Twenty-six percent are concerned about both equally. Nine percent are concerned about neither and 10% are unsure.</p>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide27-1024x576.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-94116" srcset="https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide27-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide27-300x169.jpg 300w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide27-768x432.jpg 768w, https://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Slide27.jpg 1280w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>The Upshot</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This survey suggests there is a significant political and public-opinion opening for the Prime Minister as he heads to Europe.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The most important finding is not simply that Canadians like Europe. It is that deeper integration now fits with how a large majority of Canadians think about Canada’s interests.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Eighty percent want Canada to deepen strategic cooperation with the European Union. That is six points higher than it was in February, with strong support itself up five points. Eighty-one percent support closer integration around trade, travel, work, study, and security.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And those numbers are not simply being driven by Liberal voters. Seven in ten Conservative voters support closer Canada-EU integration as well. </p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There is also something deeper happening in how Canadians see the country’s place in the world.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Fifty-six percent now say Canada has more in common with the countries of the European Union when it comes to values, way of life, and outlook on the world. Only 16% say we have more in common with the United States.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The EU is viewed positively by 71% of Canadians, up five points since February. Positive impressions of the United Kingdom are up eight points to 74%. Meanwhile, only 21% have a positive impression of the United States.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">So when the government talks about diversifying our partnerships, it is pushing on an open door.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">And the economic-independence argument is particularly powerful.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Sixty-one percent think a closer relationship with Europe would make Canada more economically independent by giving us greater access to markets and essential supplies without relying too heavily on any one country. Only 9% think it would make us less independent.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Canadians are also more than twice as likely to say they are worried about continuing to rely too heavily on the United States as they are to worry that closer ties with Europe might damage the U.S. relationship.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The public appears to see Europe not simply as another market or diplomatic partner but increasingly as part of the answer to a much larger question: <strong>how Canada becomes more resilient, more economically independent, and less vulnerable to the decisions of any one country.</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">That is what makes the timing of the Prime Minister’s trip so interesting.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">If there is a significant announcement coming, the political challenge is probably not convincing Canadians that Canada should get closer to Europe.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Most already appear convinced of that.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Methodology</strong></p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The survey was conducted with 1,479 Canadian adults from September 4 to 9, 2026.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey through a set of partner panels. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is approximately plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Totals may not add to 100 because of rounding.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>About Abacus Data</strong></p>
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<p>The post <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/as-carney-heads-to-europe-4-in-5-canadians-support-closer-integration-with-the-eu/">As Carney Heads to Europe, 4 in 5 Canadians Support Closer Integration with the EU</a> appeared first on <a href="https://abacusdata.ca">Abacus Data</a>.</p>
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