Key Points:

• State election integrity polls high among Republicans and Democrats

• Independent voters have grown more skeptical due to distrust of Trump

• Republican lawmakers still push reforms of election system

Republicans and Democrats appear to have reached some common ground on election integrity.

Voters in both parties have expressed a high level of confidence in the state’s elections, with Republicans reporting 77% confidence in election fairness and Democrats registering at 75%, according to a new poll from Noble Predictive Insights. In July 2021, only 40% of Republicans expressed confidence in election fairness.

According to the poll, 70% of voters currently express trust in the fairness of upcoming elections.

The overall confidence of Arizona voters has increased by 12 points since July 2021, when officials conducted the Maricopa County audit in response to President Donald Trump’s claims of election fraud.

However, independent voters have emerged as the most skeptical toward trusting elections with only 58% showing confidence in election fairness, the poll found.

The poll also found that independent voters distrust Trump and are disenchanted with the partisan disagreements over gerrymandering, which has led to wariness of both parties.

The poll also highlighted that the majority of voters in both parties want to either improve access to mail-in voting or maintain the current system.

The results are based on 948 responses from registered voters in Arizona between Aug. 11 and Aug. 18.

“Mail-in voting has become normalized in Arizona,” said Noble Predictive Insights Founder & CEO Mike Noble in a statement. “While Trump can still stir up skepticism, even among Republicans, there’s no longer a broad base demanding rollbacks. Most voters are ready to move on and keep the system stable.”

The increased confidence in election integrity from Arizona voters, especially Republicans, is likely tied to the results of the 2024 election.

“I think it’s a lot easier to accept the results when your guy wins. And so I think it’s as simple as it gets,” said GOP consultant Chuck Coughlin. “The president’s rhetoric has died down on this.”

Last November, Trump won the presidency while Republicans expanded their majority in both legislative chambers after winning in a number of swing districts.

GOP consultant Barrett Marson agreed that Trump’s win, along with other Republican victories, likely contributed to the increased voter confidence among Republicans.

“The polls showed Trump was up by a few points, and he won by right around what the polls were showing,” Marson said. “People of all parties saw that voting here is safe and secure.”

In a video posted on X, Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes credited county recorders, supervisors and election officials across the state for working to implement transparency, accountability and access for the state’s voters.

“We know the truth is that folks really believe in each other and our elections in Arizona,” he said. “Now, all we have to do is make sure that everybody else comes along, but I’m confident the fog is lifting because at the end of the day, the truth will prevail.”

Democrats have maintained that the state’s elections have been safe, secure and fair for years, regardless of who wins at the top of the ticket, said Senate Minority Leader Priya Sundareshan, D-Tucson.

The polling results also demonstrate that any election reforms that could potentially disenfranchise voters are unnecessary, Sundareshan said.

“Regardless of the election outcome, I think voters should be and remain confident that, not just the most recent elections, but elections in prior years have been conducted with integrity,” she said.

Although the election fraud claims have subsided, Republicans have continued to advocate for reform of the state’s election system by introducing legislation last session that would expedite the results on election night.

The bills would have changed the deadlines for early ballot drop off, required voters to update their names on the Active Early Voting List within a specific timeframe, and allowed schools to be used as polling places.

Another would’ve banned voting centers.

Gov. Katie Hobbs vetoed those bills due to concerns about restricting access to voting. Democrats agreed and routinely voted against the legislation in committees and on the House and Senate floors.

Although this issue differs from the election fraud claims, Republican lawmakers still viewed the slow election results as another potential reason for voters to lose confidence in the election process. 

Senate President Warren Petersen, R-Gilbert, said he plans to work with his Republican colleagues to pursue more election reforms, although he is pleased to see voters expressing more confidence in the state’s election system.

“Glad to see confidence increase but we still have a lot of work to do,” Petersen said in a text message.  “Hobbs has vetoed a pile of bills.”

The post Experts: elections seem more legitimate when you win first appeared on Arizona Capitol Times.

In a strange turn of events, a recent Noble Predictive Insights poll has found that Republican gubernatorial contender Karrin Taylor-Robson is “10 points ahead of competitor” Andy Biggs. Robson was once estranged from the MAGA wing of the GOP and is now the frontrunner in the primary race.

Some commentators believe Robson’s early lead is not sustainable on the long campaign trail to the 2026 primary. Due to her lack of grassroots support, being viewed as a political insider, and flip-flopping on policy, she potentially weakens her dominance.

What would it mean for the AZ GOP if Robson wins the nomination? Both candidates have the endorsement of President Trump, but represent different factions of the GOP.

Robson presents Arizona with a MAGA-lite flavor of conservatism, favoring solution-focused policies and practicality.

Meanwhile, Biggs is a MAGA firebrand. Uncompromising and resolute when it comes to upholding conservative principles.

The current status of the GOP primary could be a shift in Arizona politics. While MAGA is still a predominant strain of conservatism, it’s losing steam. From March 2025 to June 2025, Republicans nationally identifying as MAGA declined to 49%.

Robson’s current lead could be the ripple effect of national trends bleeding into Arizona’s political landscape. Voters currently preferring Robson could be a sign of a shift toward moderate politics, supporting AZ First policies, and a demand for solutions over fiery rhetoric.

Arizona is far from a secure right-wing stronghold. The diaspora of transplants from deep-blue states has loosened the GOP’s grip on AZ. Outside of registered Republicans, the second largest voter demographic in the state is independents, making up 34.13% of the electorate. 

Republicans really need to reach persuadable moderates if they want to win elections – 59% of Arizona voters believe that “both political parties are too extreme.”

As we saw in the 2022 midterms, extremism is a vice when it comes to winning elections. Independent voters were unswayed by the quirks of far-right MAGA candidates Kari Lake and Blake Masters. Lake even failed to engage moderates in her 2024 Senate bid.

Robson side-steps the “Kari Lake Problem” by marketing herself as MAGA-friendly, but avoiding inflammatory rhetoric that is off-putting to moderates. Her balanced approach has so far paid off. She even leads with “Trump-first Republicans.” Showing that even some of Trump’s diehard supporters recognize the GOP needs to change course to win Arizona.

A whopping 60% of AZ voters don’t believe politicians focus on the most critical issues.

Robson, positioning herself as being business-oriented while focusing on matters of local concern, such as the economy and public safety, is a laudable attempt to avoid the trappings of the national political scene. Establishing a political brand that is Arizona-First.

Biggs is America-First, not Arizona-First. He’s as Trumpian as you can get. Instead of focusing on issues of concern to the state, he may import policies that achieve the grand strategy of the national MAGA coalition. 

The rising nationalization of state and local politics is evident with national advocacy groups weighing in on low-profile local elections.

As governor, you must put the state before your party; otherwise, you will be doing a disservice to Arizonans. 

Conservatives have succeeded in implementing tax cuts, border enforcement, and rolling back DEI. But they’ve lost ground due to infighting and their hostility toward bipartisanship.

Arizonans are not impressed by the theatrics of bomb-throwing ideologues – they prefer results. Only 29% of Arizona voters prefer politicians who refuse to reach across the aisle on principle.

On her campaign website, Robson has highlighted the public’s frustration with “bipartisan gridlock,” signaling that she will be willing to approach the issues facing the state pragmatically. 

I can only hope that Robson is sincere in her efforts to put Arizona first. However, with the primary 11 months away, we can only hope she doesn’t succumb to the pressure from external interest groups. However, her milder brand of conservative politics appears to be already resonating with voters. If she stays on course, she could be a new force in Arizona politics.

Peter Clark is an Arizona-based writer.

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