Lucky Dog's Gambling Blog

Equibase Beta Tester

Lucky Dog — Sat, 18 Jul 2026 15:55:01 +0000

Several months ago, Equibase sent me an invitation to be a beta tester for their new web interface. They are doing the update in phases, as there are so many components to their website. I was able to get one of my feedback requests implemented. Since my focus as a handicapper is on comparing horses in a race, I asked them to add an option to compare all of the horses in a race from the entries page. Being able to compare horses, trainers, and jockeys is what handicapping is all about. It remains to be seen how much data they will allow us to see for free.

They are making good progress on the update, so we should be able to see the refresh sometime in the next few months. Meanwhile, I was also a beta tester for 1st Bet. I was able to get them to add results status for multi-race wagers. But my navigation recommendations haven’t been implemented. Compared to the old TVG wagering app, that I used to use, their update is not as user friendly as it could be. Despite this, they released the new interface after a relatively short beta period. You can still get to the legacy version by using the “MORE” button in the lower right and clicking on “Legacy 1/ST BET Experience”. Unfortunately, any wager you place in the legacy version does not show up in the new version. Although your account balance appears correctly in both.

You also can’t see your rewards activity in the new version. I suspect that they are keeping the legacy version around until they get the remaining non-wagering features migrated. I also miss not having a year-to-date summary of my wagering activity. In the TVG app, I would look at that often to see how much I had won vs. how much I wagered for the year. I am too lazy to track this in a spreadsheet and was accustomed to being able use the wagering app for this type of data. From an experienced horse player’s perspective, would I recommend 1/ST bet? Probably not based on the lack of wagering history and navigation deficiencies. I have also found it difficult to turn their new handicapping data into winning multi-race wagers!

New 1/ST BET Preview

Lucky Dog — Fri, 17 Apr 2026 17:31:33 +0000

1/St Bet sent me an email yesterday to let me know that they are beta testing a new wagering interface. I took a quick look at it today and here are my first impressions. The first thing I noticed was that they added a dark mode option that lets you change the color of the interface. The old interface was white. They took away the factor options and added speed figures plus some of the raw data that used to be built into the factor system. You can also now save a list of your favorite tracks. They also added a page listing handicapping products that you can purchase directly from the app.

I kind of miss the factor system. Selecting your favorite factors and being able to apply them to a race was a quick way to handicap a race. Applying a set of factors would give you a W/P/S probability percentage. In the new interface, it is up to you to analyze the data. They do highlight the best figures which helps, but there are several tabs with data to look at. I can see they want people to make their own decisions. They don’t want to be blamed when their factor selections don’t win the race.

One useful item is the race comments. They give you a brief handicapping comment on each horse in the race. This is where you can get an expert opinion about how the horse will run. Comments like this can be found on several handicapping websites. I have to assume most of the comments are AI generated. It would be impossible for someone to write a comment for each horse in every race. But you can still get something useful from it once in a while. The update is still in beta, so things may change depending on the feedback they get.

Betmix Handicapping

Lucky Dog — Tue, 14 Apr 2026 16:27:28 +0000

Now that I have my 1/ST Bet off-track wagering account, I started exploring all of the handicapping features. The first thing I noticed was that 1/ST Bet is a product of Express Bet, which is linked to Betmix handicapping software. Betmix offers advanced handicapping tools that uses data from Equibase. It is similar to Race Lens, which can be found on Equibase.com. Both allow you to create your own “angles” and apply them to a race. Win probability projections are going to be similar because they both use the same data.

In my opinion, Race Lens is more user friendly and easier to use. Betmix is more complicated with over a dozen tools to work with. If you have a 1/ST Bet or Express Bet account, you can login to Betmix. I was hoping to have access to more advanced handicapping tools, but they only give you a few things to play with. Unless it is a free sample, clicking on tools takes you to a page which lists their membership options. Prices are $16 for a 2-day pass, $50 for a month, and $500 for a year. All give you unlimited number of tracks. Race Lens unlimited subscriptions cost $129 for a month, $299 for 3 months, and $999 for a year. They also offer limited subs for less.

Having access to that much data isn’t going to help if you don’t know how to use it. I recorded 1/ST bet’s top factors for the last four races at Keenland on 4/11/26 and there was not a single winner from their top 3 selections. On that day longshots were coming in, so Timeform’s top selections came up empty too. Only Equibase Smart Picks had the winner of the last race. I don’t know if a handicapping subscription would help a casual player like me. Would it help me find longshots? Horses with poor past performances, but may have changed trainers or are dropping in class? It’s usually just one overlooked angle that makes the difference.

1/St Bet Update

Lucky Dog — Fri, 10 Apr 2026 15:49:43 +0000

I have updated my on-track 1/St Bet account to allow off-track wagers. The process was easier than I expected. I first thought I would need to call in to make the account update, but I was able to do it online. I will still have to go to the local track to place wagers there, but I can now wager at other tracks from home. This also gives me bonuses and promotions that TVG stopped offering (unless you sign up for Fanduel).

I have a lot of experience using the app and have been using their handicapping tools for several years. Their top factor selections are not quite as good as TimeForm’s. But they do allow you to build your own handicapping profiles. I’ve had mixed results creating my own, but I plan to revisit that option to create profiles for specific race types.

The one negative is that they charge a $5 fee on deposits. I figure I can make my deposits and withdrawals at Canterbury Park, which is only 2 miles away. As far as a replacement for Fanduel TV? Last weekend I found that most major tracks have a live feed on YouTube. “Day at the Races” is a program that has pretty good coverage for tracks on the east coast. You can also watch live feeds from each track on the 1/St Bet app. I especially like watching local track commentators do their pre-race shows.

I picked 1/St Bet because it was just the easiest one to switch to, since I already used it for on-track betting. I don’t think it is going to make a difference in my wagering results. But hopefully the change will bring some much-needed luck from the horse racing gods. If you would like to sign up for 1/St Bet, please use my XB Friends Number and wager $100 within 30 days of having an account. My unique XB Friends Number is: XBF63245

Done With TVG/Fanduel

Lucky Dog — Sun, 29 Mar 2026 15:24:23 +0000

On March 27th, 2026, Fanduel announced that it will be ending Fanduel TV by the end of the year. This means that on-track horse racing coverage will be ending. Horse racing coverage went downhill after TVG merged with Fanduel TV in 2022. Longtime announcers have been steadily leaving the network. With this latest announcement, many others will also be leaving.

After reading the comments on horse racing message boards, the verdict is that this isn’t going to be good for horse racing fans. Every Saturday over the past 3 months I have been watching horse racing on Fanduel TV. Even with the sound glitches, I still watched races from my favorite tracks. Now it is unlikely that any effort will be put into updating the Fanduel TV app. For that reason, I have decided to stop watching and wagering on Fanduel/TVG.

In the past 3 months, I deposited $220, wagered $520, and had $268 in winnings. The results show that I came out with -$19.23. That is a lot of time invested to basically break even. I had so many times that I missed winning a pick 4 wager by one race that I lost count. Most of the time the winner of the race I lost was obvious when I did the post-race review. Going forward, I plan to wait until the Kentucky Derby before placing any more wagers. I will also now be using 1/ST Bet instead of TVG/Fanduel. Live racing at Canterbury Park starts on May 23 for the 2026 season.

2 Pick 4 Wins in 1 Day

Lucky Dog — Sun, 01 Feb 2026 16:45:40 +0000

This past Saturday, I played the late pick 4 at both Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. I don’t usually do this, but both tracks had stakes races that I wanted to watch. At Gulfstream, they had the G3 Forward Gal, the Sweetest Chant Stakes and the G3 Holy Bull. At Santa Anita they had the G3 Megahertz Stakes. At Gulfstream, I compared my pick 4 to the one that track announcer Larry Collmus had put together. We were very close, but I did make a few adjustments to my picks. I had two horses in the first three races and three horses in the fourth race. The 50-cent pick 4 wager cost was $12. Most of the winners were favorites so the payout was only $18.85.

I then took a look at the late scratches at Santa Anita and found that I could go with two singles in my pick 4. Both of the singles were trained by Bob Baffert. The first race was a maiden special weight and one of my singles. I selected 5 horses in the second race which was the Megahertz Stakes. The third race was an allowance optional claimer with Baffert trained Cornucopian who was coming off of a 9-month layoff. The last race was another MSW with 12 runners. Five of them were first-time starters. I decided to go with two horses in that race. Counterbalance had the best speed in recent races and She’s Limitless was a Baffert first timer.

The Santa Anita pick-4 wager cost was only $5. My biggest worry was all the first-time starters in the last race. But Counterbalance ended up winning by 1-1/4 lengths. She’s Limitless finished last. The payout was $30.15 for a total of $49 on the two pick-4’s. I would have banked more, but none of my side wagers panned out. If you bet against your multi-race picks, they can end up reducing the amount of your winnings. It might be better to put in an exacta or superfecta with your multi-race picks, as an insurance policy.

How to Avoid Dumb Bets

Lucky Dog — Sun, 18 Jan 2026 15:43:35 +0000

When I’m watching the horse races on Fanduel TV, I find myself tempted to place a wager on one of the races that wasn’t on my radar. This usually doesn’t end well. The commentators make a case for their favorite but also try to find something positive to say about every horse in the race. It’s hard not to be influenced by their comments. Sometimes they are right, but most of the time they are not. That’s how it goes with horse racing.

Having a stake in a race makes it more fun to watch. But this often leads to me placing dumb bets. If your horse doesn’t finish in the top 3, it feels like a dumb bet. This is often because I made a quick decision just before post time based on incomplete data. When I only look at the stats that are in the wagering app, that is what I consider incomplete data. I have more success when I am able to look at data from multiple sources and organize it in a manner that makes it easy to compare each horse’s recent performance.

If I don’t have time to analyze the data properly, I always feel less confident in my selections. A recent example would be at Fairgrounds this past weekend. In the 10th race I came up with a winning trifecta using commentator analysis and process of elimination. But in the next 3 races, my pick 3 completely failed because I was only using data from the app. When good jockeys come to town for important stakes races, you have to give that some weight, even if the horse doesn’t have a stellar record.

On the same day, I put in a pick 4 at Gulfstream. I spent several hours going over the data for each race and came up with a single in two races. This allowed me to create a $6 wager that returned $55. This was good handicapping practice for the 2026 Pegasus World Cup taking place on Jan 24th at Gulfstream Park. This invitational race launched in 2017 has quickly gained recognition and has become the premier mid-winter race in the US. In 2025 more than $7 million was wagered on the Pegasus World Cup. I know what races I will be looking at in the week ahead, so I can avoid placing any dumb bets.

Another PK4 at GP

Lucky Dog — Sun, 21 Dec 2025 15:41:04 +0000

On December 20th, 2026, I hit another pick 4 wager at Gulfstream Park. This was the second week in a row. Although the payout was less than the previous week, it still had a chance of being an even bigger payout. The first leg was won by a very low odds favorite. But I had a 10 to 1 horse win in the second leg. In the third and fourth legs I only had two horses in each race. My slightly better odds horse at 2 to 1 won the third leg. In the last race, I had Irad Ortiz and Flavien Prat on the two favorites. If Irad won, I would get $88.80, and if Flavien won, I would get 2X that amount.

Irad ended up winning by a neck, which was the lower payout. I was surprised that there was such a big difference, but that’s how multi race wagers go sometimes. So, my two-week pick 4 total is $256.25. It is nice to be able to withdraw from my wagering account rather than putting money in all the time. Next weekend will be the last of the 2025 racing season. Gulfstream has a couple stakes races on Saturday, which I’ve already started working on. It will be quite a challenge to hit three pick 4’s in a row. Santa Anita’s winter racing season opens on 12/26/25. I’ve had some luck at Santa Anita, but Gulfstream has always been my favorite.

Update: I missed the pick 4 on the following Saturday. My picks won the first three races, but the two horses I had in the last race didn’t win. One of them came in 3rd. The payout was only $29.30, so I don’t feel too bad about missing that one. Pretty weak compared to the payout for the middle pick 4 at Gulfstream on 1/17/26, which was a record $63,904.

2025 Horse Betting Results

Lucky Dog — Sun, 14 Dec 2025 18:08:32 +0000

After a rough beginning to my 2025 horse betting season, I took a break from the sport in early July. I didn’t start again until late October. During that 4-month period I still made my weekly pick 4 selections but didn’t wager any money. I made a few adjustments to the data I was using to handicap the races and recorded the results. It seems to have made a big difference, as my results in November and December were more positive.

In the last month I placed 38 wagers with $155 and won $380. Two of the four pick 4’s I placed won $266. The two I lost were only by one race. During the year I deposited $390 and had $621 in winnings. I placed 195 wagers during the year, and my biggest win was $167.45. I placed one pick-5 that lost in the last race. It was only a $12 wager, but it still hurt after having picked winners in the first four legs.

My new routine is to look at the stakes racing schedule and choose a pick 4 for the upcoming Saturday. In the days leading up to the race, I analyze data for each horse in the 4-race sequence. On the day of the race, I look at Equibase Smart Picks, TimeForm Analyst’s Verdict, and 1/ST Bet’s top handicapping factors. This is mainly to confirm my selections. Most free online handicapping predictions are only correct about half the time. I use them to see if my own analysis matches or if I need to look closer at a horse that I may have overlooked. Equibase has started a ranking system for racehorses. The highest ranked horse doesn’t usually win, but it helps identify the top contenders. Good luck in the 2026 racing season!

2025 Derby Results

Lucky Dog — Sun, 04 May 2025 15:18:17 +0000

For this year’s Kentucky Derby I had high hopes of picking the winner for the second year in a row. I was getting a daily workout report from Equibase, so I decided to track the time figures for the contenders. I also wrote down the speed figures for the last three races, how they finished, and what grade each race was. My top 3 picks were Journalism, Burnham Square, and Sandman. I also had Sovereignty listed as a top contender, but didn’t think his stats were as good as Sandman’s.

The track condition was muddy as it is almost every other year for the race. As the horses were walking by in the paddock, I saw that Sovereignty’s impressive size would be an advantage over the others. Sandman looked like a lean youngster compared to Sovereignty’s imposing girth. But, like they say, “Bet a grey on a rainy day”. It was too late for me to change my wagers anyway. I was alive to the Oaks/Derby double and the pick 3 with Journalism and Sandman. Sovereignty was under Journalism in my trifecta, and I had several long shot win bets, plus a Journalism/Baeza boxed exact.

Sovereignty finished first, followed by Journalism and Baeza. Sandman ended up finishing 7th behind Burnham Square. Somehow, once again they managed to turn all of my wagers into losses. That was a lot of time wasted tracking stats on all of the contenders. It especially hurts when you have two multi-race wagers that lose in the last leg. This is how my whole year has been going, so I’m not really surprised. I just don’t have the money right now to cover all of the potential outcomes. With minimal coverage, I feel like I’m wasting time and money and relying too much on luck.