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The post Budget 2026: Affordability Tops Canadians’ Concerns as Threats from Trump and AI Rise, But Few Expect the Budget to Make Their Lives Better appeared first on Abacus Data.
]]>A new Abacus Data survey conducted ahead of Thursday’s federal budget finds Canadians approaching Budget Day with significant concerns about their household finances and the country’s economic future. The rising cost of living remains the most important issue facing Canada, while Donald Trump and the United States are increasingly seen as the country’s greatest threat. Concern about artificial intelligence has also risen substantially since earlier this year.
The results reveal a public looking for both economic security and financial relief. Almost two-thirds of Canadians (63%) identify the rising cost of living as one of the country’s three most important issues. Meanwhile, 59% select Trump and the United States as one of the two greatest threats facing the country, up from 46% in our April survey. Concern about artificial intelligence has also increased, from 10% to 26% on a comparable top-two measure. Yet despite expectations of significant new federal investments, just 10% believe Thursday’s budget will make their own household better off, while 30% expect things to get worse.
The findings point to a complicated environment for the Carney government as it prepares to table its second federal budget. Canadians increasingly recognize threats to the country’s economic security and expect the government to respond. But the financial pressures shaping their everyday lives remain immediate, and confidence that major national investments will translate into personal benefits is limited.
The Cost of Living Remains Canada’s Most Important Issue
Asked to identify the three most important issues facing Canada today, the rising cost of living leads by a considerable margin.
Almost two-thirds of Canadians (63%) select the rising cost of living, well ahead of every other issue tested.
The next tier of concerns includes the economy and Donald Trump and his administration, each selected by 38%, followed by housing affordability and accessibility (33%), healthcare (31%), and immigration (24%).
Other issues receive less attention. Crime and public safety and job security and unemployment are each selected by approximately 15%, while climate change and the environment and the rise of artificial intelligence are selected by approximately 12%.
The results suggest that economic insecurity remains the central concern for Canadians, even as the country confronts significant international challenges.
Cost of living is the leading issue across regions, age groups, and political affiliations. It is selected by 67% of those who voted Conservative in 2025, 59% of Liberal voters, and 65% of NDP voters.
But beyond affordability, Canadians have different priorities.
Among Conservative voters, the economy (47%) and immigration (39%) are particularly prominent. Among Liberal voters, Donald Trump and his administration is selected by 52%, compared with 39% who select the economy and 30% who select housing affordability.
This difference reflects the two dimensions of economic concern shaping public opinion today. Canadians are worried about the costs and opportunities affecting their own households, while also considering the larger threats to Canada’s economy and security.
Both concerns are likely to shape how Thursday’s budget is received.
Regional Differences Reveal Different Economic Pressures
Although affordability is the leading issue everywhere, its intensity and the issues that follow vary across the country.
In Alberta and Atlantic Canada, 72% identify the rising cost of living as a top-three issue, the highest levels measured. Concern is also elevated in British Columbia (66%) and Ontario (64%).
Quebec stands apart. While cost of living remains the leading issue, it is selected by 53% of Quebecers, considerably fewer than in Alberta or Atlantic Canada.
Instead, Quebecers are much more likely to identify Donald Trump and his administration as a major national issue. Just over half (52%) select Trump, compared with 28% of Albertans.
The economy is particularly prominent in Alberta (44%) and Quebec (43%), compared with just 23% in Atlantic Canada.
Healthcare also varies considerably. It is identified as a top-three issue by 45% of Atlantic Canadians and 38% of British Columbians, compared with 25% in Alberta and 27% in Quebec.
Immigration is more prominent in Alberta (31%) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (30%) than in British Columbia (18%) or Quebec (20%).
These differences suggest that Canadians will approach the federal budget with somewhat different expectations.
In Alberta, affordability and economic growth are particularly important. In Quebec, the external economic environment and the relationship with the United States are more prominent. In Atlantic Canada, affordability and healthcare dominate the list of concerns.
The government’s national economic agenda will therefore be evaluated against different regional priorities.
Younger Canadians Focus on Housing, While Older Canadians Are More Concerned About Trump
Age also shapes how Canadians understand the country’s challenges.
Among Canadians aged 18 to 29, 45% identify housing affordability as one of the country’s three most important issues. That compares with 39% among those aged 30 to 44, 32% among those aged 45 to 59, and just 23% among Canadians aged 60 and older.
Younger Canadians are also more likely to identify job security and unemployment as important. About 20% of those under 30 select this issue, compared with 10% of Canadians aged 60 and older.
The pattern reverses when it comes to Donald Trump.
Just 23% of Canadians aged 18 to 29 identify Trump and his administration as a top-three issue, compared with 30% of those aged 30 to 44, 34% of those aged 45 to 59, and 53% of Canadians aged 60 and older.
Healthcare also becomes more prominent with age, rising from 26% among those under 30 to 36% among those aged 60 and older.
Cost of living, however, cuts across generations. It is selected by 58% of those under 30 and between 62% and 66% of those in older age groups.
The findings suggest that younger Canadians are more focused on the affordability of establishing themselves financially, particularly housing and employment. Older Canadians place greater emphasis on the broader economic environment, external threats, and healthcare.
There are also differences between men and women. Women are more likely to select cost of living (65% versus 60%), healthcare (36% versus 26%), and housing affordability (36% versus 29%). Men are more likely to identify the economy (43% versus 34%) and Donald Trump (41% versus 35%).
These differences are important because a budget focused on long-term national investments may connect more directly with some concerns than others.
Trump and the United States Are Increasingly Seen as Canada’s Greatest Threat
Perhaps the most significant change in the broader public opinion environment is the growing proportion of Canadians identifying Donald Trump and the United States as the country’s greatest threat.
In our April 2026 survey, 46% of Canadians ranked Trump and U.S. trade and economic policies among their two greatest threats.
In the latest survey, conducted ahead of Budget 2026, 59% select Trump and the United States as one of the two greatest threats facing Canada.
That represents a 13-point increase in the reported top-two measure since April.
While the questions were not identical, with respondents ranking three threats in April and selecting two directly in November, the findings suggest that concern about the United States has become even more prominent in how Canadians assess the country’s future.
The rise is visible across the country.
In April, 54% of Quebecers identified Trump and U.S. economic policy as a leading threat. That figure is now 67%.
In Ontario, the proportion has increased from 44% to 57%, while in British Columbia it has risen from 45% to 57%.
In Alberta, it has increased from 42% to 51%. In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, from 45% to 61%. And in Atlantic Canada, from 43% to 61%.
The same general pattern appears across age groups.
Among Canadians aged 60 and older, the proportion identifying Trump and the United States as a top-two threat has risen from 59% in April to 70% today.
Among those aged 18 to 29, it has increased from 34% to 48%.
Although older Canadians remain considerably more concerned, the increase is not confined to one generation or region.
The survey does not establish precisely what is driving the change. But the findings are consistent with a public that continues to see the United States as a source of significant economic and political uncertainty.
For the Carney government, this is an important part of the environment surrounding Thursday’s budget.
The government’s emphasis on economic sovereignty, trade diversification, infrastructure, and national resilience is being presented to a public increasingly concerned about the country’s relationship with its largest trading partner.
Whether the specific measures announced in the budget will be seen as an effective response remains to be determined.
Concern About Artificial Intelligence Has Also Increased Substantially
A second important change since April is the growing prominence of artificial intelligence as a perceived threat.
In April, just 10% of Canadians ranked artificial intelligence among their top two threats.
In the latest survey, that figure has increased to 26%, a rise of 16 percentage points.
AI is now the second most frequently selected threat in the survey, behind Trump and the United States.
It is selected by slightly more Canadians than immigration (25%), government debt (19%), climate change (16%), or governments cutting public services (15%).
This is a notable development.
Earlier this year, artificial intelligence was a relatively secondary concern compared with the United States, government spending, immigration, and public services.
The latest results suggest that AI is becoming a much more prominent part of how Canadians think about risks to their quality of life and the country’s future.
The difference between the two waves should be interpreted with some caution. The April survey asked respondents to rank their top three threats and reported their first two choices, while the November survey asked respondents to select two. Some response categories were also worded differently. These are therefore directional comparisons rather than a perfectly identical tracking series.
Nevertheless, the increase in AI’s reported share is substantial.
The demographic pattern is also interesting.
In April, younger Canadians were more likely than older Canadians to identify artificial intelligence as a threat. Among those aged 18 to 29, 11% included it in their top two.
Today, 25% of Canadians under 30 select artificial intelligence as a leading threat.
But AI concern is no longer concentrated among younger adults. In fact, it is now highest among Canadians aged 60 and older, at 32%, compared with 23% among those aged 45 to 59 and 21% among those aged 30 to 44.
Regionally, concern about AI is highest in Quebec (30%), followed by Saskatchewan and Manitoba (29%) and Atlantic Canada (28%). It is lowest in Alberta (21%).
AI is also viewed as a threat across political affiliations, although the levels vary. It is selected by 33% of Liberal voters, 31% of NDP voters, and 18% of Conservative voters.
These findings suggest that concerns about artificial intelligence are becoming more widespread, even as Canadians continue to differ in how much priority they place on it.
It is also worth noting that only 12% identify the rise of AI as one of Canada’s three most important issues, compared with 26% who identify it as one of the country’s greatest threats.
The difference suggests that Canadians may increasingly recognize AI as a significant long-term risk without necessarily viewing it as one of the most immediate problems requiring government attention.
The survey does not establish whether respondents are most concerned about employment, misinformation, privacy, economic disruption, or some combination of these issues. But the increase in AI’s prominence is an important signal for governments preparing economic plans in a period of technological change.
Different Political Groups See Different Threats
Despite the growing prominence of Trump and artificial intelligence, there remain substantial political differences in how Canadians assess the country’s greatest risks.
Among those who voted Liberal in 2025, 74% identify Trump and the United States as a leading threat.
Among past Bloc Québécois voters, the figure is 78%, while 63% of NDP voters select the same option.
Among Conservative voters, Trump and the United States remain a significant concern, but the figure is considerably lower at 43%.
Conservative voters are much more likely to identify immigration (40%) and government debt (32%) as major threats.
Among Liberal voters, just 14% select immigration and 12% select government debt. Instead, Liberal voters are more likely to identify artificial intelligence (33%) and climate change (23%) as leading threats.
The differences become particularly pronounced when respondents are grouped by their approval of the federal government.
Among those who strongly approve of the Carney government, 78% identify Trump and the United States as a leading threat, and 36% select artificial intelligence.
Among those who strongly disapprove, just 22% select Trump and the United States, and 12% select AI. Instead, 57% identify immigration as a leading threat, while 42% select the people currently in power.
These differences suggest that Canadians are not simply prioritizing different policy issues. They are interpreting the country’s risks through considerably different perspectives.
Those supportive of the federal government are more likely to see threats arising from external instability and technological change. Those who strongly oppose it are more likely to emphasize domestic governance and immigration.
This divide provides important context for the budget.
The government’s economic strategy will be judged by Canadians whose perceptions of the country’s most pressing threats differ considerably.
Canadians Expect an Investment-Focused Budget, But Are Divided About Spending Restraint
Against this backdrop, Canadians broadly expect Thursday’s budget to involve continued federal investment.
Asked which general approach seems most likely, 34% expect the government to spend on new projects while cutting in other areas to help pay for them.
Another 31% expect the government to increase spending without making significant cuts, even if that means larger deficits.
Only 10% expect the government to mostly cut spending and save money, while 11% anticipate few major changes. Another 15% are unsure.
Taken together, almost two-thirds anticipate new spending and investment. But they are divided over whether the government will make meaningful reductions elsewhere.
This division is particularly noticeable in Alberta, where 46% expect the government to increase spending without substantial cuts. In Quebec, the figure is 26%.
Age also matters. Among Canadians aged 60 and older, 42% expect increased spending without meaningful cuts, compared with just 17% of those under 30.
Political differences are substantial as well.
Among Conservative voters, 45% expect the government to spend more without significant cuts, compared with 22% of Liberal voters.
Liberal voters are much more likely to anticipate a combination of new investment and spending reductions elsewhere, at 43% compared with 24% of Conservatives.
The findings suggest that Canadians have broadly accepted the likelihood of continued government investment. But they have quite different expectations about how that spending will be financed.
Major Investments Are Expected, But Household Relief Less So
When asked about specific measures that might appear in the budget, Canadians are most likely to anticipate investments related to national economic development and security.
About two-thirds believe the budget is likely to include:
- More money for the military and defence: 67%
- Big investments in infrastructure, energy, or transportation: 66%
- Federal funding to help build a new oil pipeline: 65%
Expectations are somewhat lower for other measures.
About 57% anticipate support for workers affected by the Trump administration’s tariffs, while 55% expect measures to speed up housing construction.
These results are consistent with the government’s stated priorities around economic resilience, national development, and responding to external threats.
But expectations for measures aimed more directly at household expenses are considerably lower.
Only 28% believe the budget is likely to include lower taxes for individuals and families.
About 44% anticipate additional help with groceries and other everyday essentials, while 48% expect continued relief on taxes at the gas pump.
Significant increases in transfers to provinces for healthcare and education are considered likely by just 38%.
These results reveal an important contrast.
Canadians are highly concerned about affordability, but relatively few expect the federal government to announce measures that would directly reduce their household expenses.
In Alberta, where 72% identify the rising cost of living as a top issue, only 38% anticipate additional help with groceries and other everyday essentials.
In Atlantic Canada, where healthcare is selected as a top issue by 45%, only 24% expect significant increases in federal transfers for healthcare and education.
The survey measures expectations rather than support for these measures. It does not tell us whether Canadians would welcome or oppose the specific policies if announced.
But the gap between what Canadians are most worried about and what they expect the government to deliver is revealing.
Most Doubt the Government Will Meet Its Operating Budget Target
The government has promised to balance its day-to-day operating budget by 2027-28, excluding borrowing for long-term investments such as infrastructure.
When asked how likely it is that the government will meet this target, just 34% believe it is very or somewhat likely.
A majority, 56%, consider it unlikely, including 21% who say it is very unlikely. Another 11% are unsure.
Confidence is particularly low in Atlantic Canada, where 64% doubt the government will achieve the target. Skepticism is also elevated in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (58%) and Alberta (58%).
Younger Canadians are somewhat more optimistic. About 43% of those aged 18 to 29 believe the target is likely to be met, compared with just 26% of those aged 60 and older.
Political differences are again substantial.
Among Liberal voters, 49% believe the target is likely to be achieved, compared with 39% who consider it unlikely.
Among Conservative voters, only 22% believe the government will meet its objective, while 71% think it is unlikely.
About 46% of Canadians expect the budget to include cuts to day-to-day federal government operations, including staffing or administrative costs. But these expectations have not translated into broad confidence in the government’s fiscal commitment.
For a budget expected to include significant investments, explaining the relationship between new spending, operating restraint, and future fiscal sustainability will be important.
Few Expect the Budget to Make Their Household Better Off
Perhaps the most revealing finding is what Canadians anticipate the budget will mean for their own financial circumstances.
Just 10% expect this year’s federal budget to make things better for their household.
Three times as many, 30%, expect it to make things worse.
Almost half, 48%, believe it will make little difference either way, while another 11% are unsure.
The regional differences are meaningful.
In Alberta, 35% expect the budget to make their household worse off, compared with 26% in British Columbia and 27% in Quebec.
Only 7% of Albertans anticipate a positive impact, compared with 12% in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada.
Age differences are particularly striking.
Among Canadians aged 18 to 29, 38% expect the budget to make their household worse off, compared with 26% of those aged 60 and older.
Younger Canadians are also somewhat more likely to expect a positive impact, at 15% compared with 7% among those aged 60 and older. But their overall expectations are considerably more negative.
Women are also less optimistic than men. Only 7% expect the budget to make their household better off, compared with 13% of men.
Even among government supporters, few anticipate a meaningful personal benefit.
Among Liberal voters, just 16% expect their household to be better off, while 18% anticipate being worse off. A majority, 56%, expect little difference.
Among Conservative voters, 43% expect to be worse off, compared with just 6% who anticipate a positive impact.
This is an important finding when considered alongside the broader public opinion environment.
Canadians increasingly see the United States and artificial intelligence as threats to the country’s future. They expect the government to make major investments in response to economic uncertainty.
But relatively few believe those decisions will improve their own financial position.
The survey does not tell us whether this reflects concerns about higher taxes, inflation, fiscal consequences, or the limited immediate impact of long-term investments.
What it does reveal is a substantial gap between expectations of government action and expectations of personal benefit.
More Canadians Expect Bad News Than Good News
Asked more generally whether they expect Thursday’s budget to bring good or bad news, Canadians lean negative.
Just 12% anticipate a good news budget, compared with 28% who expect a bad news budget.
The largest group, 38%, expects a mixture of good and bad news, while another 21% has no clear idea what to expect.
Alberta is the most pessimistic region. Just 6% of Albertans anticipate good news, while 35% expect bad news.
In Quebec, 44% expect a mixture of good and bad news, the highest proportion of any region.
Age differences are also apparent. About 19% of Canadians aged 18 to 29 anticipate a good news budget, compared with just 9% of those aged 60 and older.
Canadians aged 30 to 44 are particularly likely to expect bad news, at 36%.
Politically, 44% of Conservative voters anticipate bad news, compared with just 6% who expect good news.
Among Liberal voters, 20% anticipate good news, 14% expect bad news, and 46% expect a mixture of the two.
Even among those who strongly approve of the government, only 30% anticipate a good news budget.
These findings suggest that the government enters Budget Day with relatively modest public expectations.
But there is also considerable uncertainty. Most Canadians expect either a mixture of outcomes or have not formed a clear impression of what the budget will contain.
That creates room for opinions to change once the details are announced.
Looking Back: A Similar Challenge to Budget 2025
The findings also provide useful context when compared with our research following the Carney government’s first federal budget in November 2025.
At the time, Abacus Data found a public divided over the budget’s direction and uncertain about the government’s broader economic plan.
Among those aware of Budget 2025, 52% described it as a step in the right direction, while 48% believed it was moving in the wrong direction.
Individual measures frequently attracted broad support, particularly those connected to Canadian industry, housing, and economic resilience.
But that support did not necessarily translate into greater confidence in the government’s economic leadership.
Only 16% said last year’s budget made them more confident that the government had a clear plan to grow the economy, improve affordability, and protect Canadians from global uncertainty. A much larger group, 39%, said it made them less confident.
Expectations were also difficult to satisfy. Just 5% said Budget 2025 exceeded their expectations, while 39% said it fell short.
This year’s survey measures expectations before the budget, whereas last year’s survey assessed reactions after it was announced. The results are therefore not directly comparable as measures of year-over-year change.
But the underlying challenge is familiar.
Canadians expect significant investments in the country’s economic future. They recognize the importance of responding to external uncertainty. Yet they remain unconvinced that those investments will necessarily improve their household finances.
What has changed since earlier this year is the prominence of two of the threats shaping that uncertainty.
Concern about Trump and the United States has increased, and artificial intelligence has become a much more frequently identified risk.
This gives the government a public opinion environment in which national economic resilience is a prominent concern. But it also increases the importance of explaining how its investments will contribute to economic security and financial stability.
The Upshot
The Carney government enters Budget Day facing a public whose concerns are both immediate and increasingly far-reaching.
The rising cost of living remains the country’s most important issue. Almost two-thirds of Canadians identify it as a top-three concern, and that holds across regions, generations, and political affiliations.
At the same time, the threat environment Canadians perceive has become more pronounced.
In April, 46% identified Donald Trump and U.S. economic policy as one of their two greatest threats. Today, 59% select Trump and the United States.
Over the same period, artificial intelligence has moved from 10% to 26% on the reported top-two threat measure.
Although the survey designs are not identical, the direction of the findings is noteworthy.
Canadians are increasingly concerned about forces that could affect their economic security and quality of life but are largely beyond their individual control.
A budget focused on infrastructure, energy, defence, and economic independence is being introduced at a time when many Canadians see significant external risks to the country’s future.
The government’s emphasis on building a stronger and more resilient economy (Masters of our Domain) is therefore consistent with concerns that have become more prominent in public opinion.
But the survey also reveals a second, more immediate challenge.
Canadians are worried about their own financial circumstances, and relatively few expect Thursday’s budget to improve them.
Just 10% anticipate a positive impact on their household finances. Three in ten expect to be worse off, while almost half believe the budget will make little difference.
There are also important differences in how Canadians experience these pressures.
Younger Canadians are more focused on housing affordability and employment. Older Canadians are more concerned about Trump and the broader economic environment, and are now also the most likely to identify AI as a major threat.
Regional priorities differ as well. Affordability is particularly prominent in Alberta and Atlantic Canada, while Quebecers place greater emphasis on the threat posed by the United States.
These differences matter because the budget will be judged through more than one set of expectations.
Major investments may be welcomed as a response to national economic challenges, while still leaving Canadians uncertain about when the benefits will reach their own households.
The findings also point to a fiscal credibility challenge. Most Canadians expect continued spending and investment, but a majority doubt the government will meet its accelerated operating balance target.
Last year’s budget demonstrated that support for individual measures does not automatically generate confidence in an overall economic plan.
The government’s second budget will provide another opportunity to test that relationship.
The public appears to understand that Canada faces significant challenges and that responding to them may require substantial investments. But understanding the need for action is different from believing that the action being taken will improve one’s quality of life.
That may be the central tension facing Budget 2026.
Canadians are increasingly worried about the country’s economic future. They expect their government to respond. Yet their expectations for personal financial improvement remain modest.
The budget will be judged both on whether it addresses the threats Canadians see around them and whether it provides a credible path toward greater financial security.
For now, the public expects substantial action, remains skeptical about the fiscal implications, and sees limited prospects for immediate personal benefit.
That is the context in which Thursday’s budget will be received.
And it suggests that one of the most important questions following the announcement will be whether Canadians come away feeling more reassured about both Canada’s economic future and their own.
Methodology
The latest survey was conducted from October 30 to November 3, 2026 with 1,809 adults living in Canada.
A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey through a set of partner panels. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Saskatchewan’s population.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is approximately plus or minus 2.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
Respondents were asked to select three of Canada’s most important issues and two of the country’s greatest threats. Percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.
Comparisons with April 2026 are based on the published Abacus Data release What Canadians See as the Biggest Threats to Their Quality of Life and What That Means, dated April 15, 2026. In that survey, respondents ranked three threats and the reported top-two measure counted those placed first or second.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.
About Abacus Data
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
With offices in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto, and now in Winnipeg following our acquisition of Probe Research, we can serve clients across the country.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
The post Budget 2026: Affordability Tops Canadians’ Concerns as Threats from Trump and AI Rise, But Few Expect the Budget to Make Their Lives Better appeared first on Abacus Data.
]]>The post Saskatchewan residents back harnessing the province’s natural resources, with support highest for potash and uranium mining appeared first on Abacus Data.
]]>As part of that commitment, we are launching a new quarterly omnibus survey to regularly track public opinion, political attitudes, and the issues shaping life in the province.
Our goal is to bring more independent, high-quality research to Saskatchewan and help governments, businesses, organizations, and the public better understand what residents are thinking and feeling.
Abacus Data surveyed 1,000 adults in Saskatchewan about new federal resource policies, including support for six major resource projects and whether they trust Premier Scott Moe and Prime Minister Mark Carney to act in the province’s best interests on them. Support for development is broad, optimism about these federal policies outweighs pessimism, and both leaders start from roughly the same level of trust when it comes to developing Saskatchewan’s resources to make the province more prosperous.
Awareness of federal policies to unlock resource development is broad, but shallow. A majority (57%) have heard a lot or some about the new federal resource policies, but only 16 per cent have heard a lot. Men and those with higher levels of formal education are the most likely to have heard a lot, while women and those with high school or less are more likely to have heard little or nothing about these policies.
Saskatchewan residents are more likely to see these policies as good for the province. Nearly one-half (48%) think the new federal policies will leave Saskatchewan better off economically, with one-quarter (25%) expecting little change, and only 12 per cent believing they will leave Saskatchewan worse off. Optimism is much higher among Saskatchewan Party voters (64%, vs. 42% of NDP voters), older adults (59% age 60+) and men (56% vs. 41% of women). Younger adults aged 18-29 are the most skeptical about the promise of these projects, as just 37 per cent say better off and a quarter (25%) say worse off.
There is strong support for every proposed project, led by expanding potash mining. Three in four (76%) support expanding the province’s potash output, and 72% support expansions to uranium mines. There is strong but slightly less robust support for oil and gas expansion: two-thirds want to see an oil pipeline built from Saskatchewan to the West Coast (68%), with a slightly smaller share (60%) backing a proposed energy corridor through northern Saskatchewan to Hudson Bay (68%). Support for nuclear power is lower but still a majority: 60 per cent are in favour of small modular reactor (SMR) near Estevan in southeast Saskatchewan, with 56 per cent in favour of the recently announced idea to build two large reactors in west-central Saskatchewan along the North Saskatchewan River.
The pattern is consistent across all six projects. Support is higher among men, older residents and Saskatchewan Party voters. The gender gap is widest on nuclear, as women are much more likely to be unsure than either in favour or opposed. Saskatoon is the most resistant region to some of these developments, with higher levels of opposition to uranium, nuclear reactors and both pipelines.
Premier Scott Moe and Prime Minister Mark Carney benefit from high levels of public confidence on these projects. About one-half trust each leader to act in Saskatchewan’s best interests on these resource projects: 52 per cent trust Mark Carney and 49 per cent trust Scott Moe. Distrust is slightly higher for Moe (40%) than Carney (37%), with one in five completely distrusting each leader.
Trust in Moe follows party lines almost entirely: 90 per cent of Saskatchewan Party voters trust him, compared with 23 percent of NDP voters. Trust in Carney crosses party lines to some degree: 64% of NDP voters trust him, and so do 47% of Saskatchewan Party voters.
The Upshot
Lately, there is a great deal of focus on Saskatchewan’s resources and the economic opportunities they could provide to the province and the country as a whole. These kinds of developments can be contentious for those who live near them, but the results of this survey show most Saskatchewan residents are ready to build.
Given their unique and historic importance to Saskatchewan’s economy, it’s not surprising that potash and uranium mining have the most support. Pipelines are also highly supported, and even nuclear power has majority backing. That support isn’t confined to one party, as most NDP voters back these resource projects, even if it is with less enthusiasm than Saskatchewan Party voters.
The federal and provincial government’s approach to resource development also comes with public goodwill. Most expect it to leave Saskatchewan better off than worse off, giving both Ottawa and the province licence to make the case together. Residents also broadly trust their leaders to deliver. Both Premier Scott Moe and Prime Minister Mark Carney start from similar levels of trust overall, highlighting how the page seems to have turned from the contentiousness of the Trudeau years when it comes to how Ottawa and Regina work together to develop Saskatchewan’s resources.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,000 Saskatchewan adults from October 5 to 13, 2026 as part of the new Abacus Data Saskatchewan quarterly omnibus survey.
A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey through a set of partner panels. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Saskatchewan’s population.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is approximately plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Totals may not add to 100% because of rounding. The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
About Abacus Data
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
With offices in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto, and now in Winnipeg following our acquisition of Probe Research, we can serve clients across the country.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
The post Saskatchewan residents back harnessing the province’s natural resources, with support highest for potash and uranium mining appeared first on Abacus Data.
]]>The post Nearly two-thirds of Canadians believe Canada should prepare for a fundamentally changed economic relationship with the United States appeared first on Abacus Data.
]]>The survey of 1,500 Canadian adults, conducted from October 16 to 21, 2026, also finds that nearly two-thirds believe Canada should build its economy on the assumption that its relationship with the United States will not return to what it was, rather than waiting for American politics to change.
More expect economic relations with the U.S. to worsen than improve. Looking ahead two years, 37% expect Canada’s economic relationship with the United States to get worse, compared with 25% who expect improvement. Another 29% think it will remain about the same, and 9% are unsure.
Expectations vary substantially by age. Among Canadians aged 18 to 29, 43% expect the relationship to improve and 27% expect it to worsen. Among those aged 60 and older, just 18% anticipate improvement while 42% expect things to get worse. NDP voters are especially likely to anticipate a deterioration (45%), compared with 33% of Liberal voters and 36% of Conservative voters.
Four in ten think Democratic control of Congress would improve the relationship. Asked about a hypothetical Democratic Party victory in the November 3 U.S. midterm elections, 44% say it would make Canada’s economic relationship with the United States better. About one-third (34%) think it would make no real difference, 8% think it would make things worse, and 14% are unsure.
Younger Canadians are particularly likely to see potential improvement: 57% of those aged 18 to 29 believe Democratic control would make the relationship better. This view is shared by 55% of Liberal voters, compared with 33% of Conservative voters. Among Conservatives, 42% expect no real difference.
Most anticipate a long recovery after Trump leaves office. Asked about the relationship after Donald Trump is no longer president, 57% think it will improve but take many years. Another 12% expect it to return to the way it was fairly quickly, while 21% believe it has changed permanently and will not return to the past. Nine percent are unsure.
The expectation of a lengthy recovery is the most common response across age groups and political preferences. Younger Canadians are more likely to anticipate a quick return, however: 19% of those under 30 expect this, compared with 9% of those aged 60 and older.
Nearly two-thirds say Canada should build for a different relationship rather than wait. Presented with two approaches, 64% say Canada cannot count on the United States changing course and should build its economy assuming the relationship will not go back to the way it was. About one-quarter (26%) believe the tensions are temporary and that Canada should be patient until U.S. politics changes. Another 10% are unsure.
This preference holds in every region, ranging from 57% in Atlantic Canada to 70% in British Columbia. It is particularly widespread among those aged 60 and older (74%) and Liberal voters (71%). Conservative voters also favour adapting to a changed relationship over waiting for political change, by 52% to 35%.
More see Canadian businesses becoming bolder than more cautious. Asked how companies are responding to the trade war, 43% say it is making Canadian companies bolder and more willing to take risks, while 30% think businesses are becoming more cautious and less willing to try new things. Another 9% see no real change, and 18% are unsure.
Liberal voters are more likely to perceive greater risk-taking (54%) than caution (27%). Conservative voters lean slightly in the opposite direction, with 37% perceiving greater caution and 32% greater boldness. These responses describe Canadians’ perceptions of business behaviour, rather than measured changes in business activity.
The Upshot
Canadians generally expect economic friction with the United States to persist, even if the American political environment changes. A Democratic Congress is more often seen as helpful than harmful, and most expect some improvement after Trump leaves office. But relatively few foresee a quick return to the relationship as it was.
That distinction appears central to the preference for adapting Canada’s economic approach now rather than waiting. The view crosses regional and partisan lines, although younger Canadians remain more optimistic about near-term improvement. At the same time, more respondents perceive Canadian companies as responding to the trade war by taking risks than by pulling back. The findings suggest a public more inclined to plan around continued uncertainty than to assume the disruption will soon pass.
Methodology
Abacus Data surveyed 1,500 Canadian adults online from October 16 to 21, 2026, for The Logic. Respondents were recruited through partner panels, typically double opt-in, and the data were weighted by age, gender, educational attainment and region.
For a comparable probability-based random sample, the margin of error would be ±2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
About Abacus Data
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
With offices in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto, and now in Winnipeg following our acquisition of Probe Research, we can serve clients across the country.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
The post Nearly two-thirds of Canadians believe Canada should prepare for a fundamentally changed economic relationship with the United States appeared first on Abacus Data.
]]>The post In Local Communities, Residents Choose Change – To A Degree: A Post-Mortem in Winnipeg appeared first on Abacus Data.
]]>And when it was all said and done, Winnipeg residents – like their counterparts in Mississauga, Vancouver, Surrey, Milton and many other communities across the country – sent a strong message for change, even if it took a few different forms.
In Winnipeg, more than half of city council’s 15 seats turned over. Four incumbent councillors were defeated, joining five other newcomers who ran to replace retiring councillors. This push for change also resonated further into council races where incumbents and certain candidates had an expected advantage.
In two seats, North Kildonan and St. Boniface, the incumbent councillors faced serious challenges for the first time in many years. In River Heights-Fort Garry, a retiring councillor’s constituency assistant was defeated handily in a race that was expected to be close. In Waverley West, another candidate who was endorsed by the outgoing councillor also lost their bid.
In the contest for Winnipeg mayor, the incumbent candidate won. However, a message was sent, as Scott Gillingham was re-elected with only 39.8 per cent of the vote.
Incumbent mayors seeking re-election nearly always win handily in Winnipeg – the last time a sitting Winnipeg mayor was retired by the voters, Louis St-Laurent was Canada’s prime minister and Elvis Presley’s hit song Heartbreak Hotel topped the Billboard charts.
Based on the power of incumbency alone, the Gillingham campaign surely expected to perform better than it did, to come closer to the magic 50 per cent threshold. While a majority of voters did not feel the incumbent mayor should be re-elected, that desire for change spread out across the different options available to voters – to an extent like what happened in Ottawa’s municipal election.
Newcomer Noah Redden went from being virtually unknown six months ago to winning the vote of nearly one in five Winnipeg voters. Many of these voters craved a progressive option and his strong focus on improving public transit resonated and gained momentum in the final days. The candidates challenging Gillingham from the right, Kevin Klein and Mike Vogiatzakis, could not consolidate and grow the support of voters concerned most about public safety and property taxes.
The signs of this discontent have been there for months – and picked up consistently in Abacus Data polling. One-half think the city is going in the wrong direction. Two-thirds believe the quality of life in Winnipeg has gotten worse in the past four years. Four in ten think they receive poor value for their property taxes. And back in June, fewer than one in ten thought the next mayor and council would make a major difference on the key issues facing the city.
At a time when Canadians are craving stability in a chaotic world – and strongly supporting the decade-old Liberal government for its approach in this regard – some, including here in Winnipeg, appear unhappy with the status quo and prepared to welcome new faces to lead their communities.
During the past few months – and especially since what used to be Probe Research joined Team Abacus Data – we have been incredibly proud to hold up a mirror to our community and tell Winnipeggers a clear story about how they feel about their city and those who wish to lead it.
Releasing public opinion polling during a municipal election can be a risky thing. As I wrote yesterday, mirroring the broader population of those who will show up to vote is much more difficult than in a federal or provincial election.
While our final poll – which was out of field a week before election day – did not perfectly mirror the final result, it performed relatively well overall.
Although we will always be looking at how to improve our accuracy in future local elections, I am very proud of and grateful for everyone on Team Abacus Data for their rigour in making sure we were on the right track. (I’d like to give an especially big shout-out to David Coletto for his guidance and belief throughout the process, especially when candidates, campaigns and media outlets were publicly questioning our numbers and approach).
This is what it’s all about – telling a clear, compelling story to our clients and to the public about what people want and expect. As Winnipeg and many other communities move forward with new local leaders, we’re looking forward to finding that insight and helping others act upon it.
About Abacus Data
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
With offices in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto, and now in Winnipeg following our acquisition of Probe Research, we can serve clients across the country.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
The post In Local Communities, Residents Choose Change – To A Degree: A Post-Mortem in Winnipeg appeared first on Abacus Data.
]]>The post Saskatchewan residents love where they live, but some are uneasy about where it’s headed appeared first on Abacus Data.
]]>As part of that commitment, we are launching a new quarterly omnibus survey to regularly track public opinion, political attitudes, and the issues shaping life in the province.
Our goal is to bring more independent, high-quality research to Saskatchewan and help governments, businesses, organizations, and the public better understand what residents are thinking and feeling.
A new Abacus Data survey of 1,000 Saskatchewan residents explores how people feel about the direction of the province, what they value most about living here, the economy, and the future. Most rate Saskatchewan highly as a place to live and are optimistic about this future, but younger adults tend to express more skepticism and pessimism about what lies ahead.
Four in 10 think Saskatchewan is heading in the wrong direction. More residents think Saskatchewan is on the wrong track (41%) than headed in the right direction (35%). Residents of Regina and Saskatoon are especially negative about their own cities, with only about a quarter or fewer saying they are headed in the right direction compared to half who think these cities are not heading in the right direction. Views of Canada are closer to even (41% right, 44% wrong), while two-thirds (66%) believe the world is on the wrong track.
Views of which direction Saskatchewan is heading are deeply dependent on partisan preference: two-thirds of Saskatchewan Party voters say right direction (65% vs. 19% wrong direction) compared to fewer than one in five NDP voters (17%, with 63% saying Saskatchewan is on the wrong track. Younger adults aged 18–29 are the most likely to say their province is on the wrong track (49% vs. 20% right direction), whereas four in 10 over the age of 60 think things are heading in the right direction (41% vs. 37% wrong track).
Most rate Saskatchewan highly as a place to live. Nearly seven in ten (69%) rate Saskatchewan as an excellent or good place to live, with only nine percent who say it is a poor place to live and one in five (21%) who consider it only fair. The proportion who rate is as excellent or good rises to 86 percent among those 60+ but falls to 47 percent among those 18–29, half of whom rate the province fair or poor.
What residents value most: big skies, affordability and a slower pace of life. When asked to assess what they value most about living in Saskatchewan, residents are most likely to point to the prairie landscape, big skies and sunsets (34%), followed by a lower cost of living and a slower, less hectic pace of life (29% each), being close to family and friends (27%) and access to outdoor lakes, parks and outdoor opportunities (26%). Economic opportunities rank closer to the bottom of the list, as only one in ten (9%) choose jobs and business opportunities as what they value most about living in Saskatchewan.
More expect their personal finances to get worse than better, but believe Saskatchewan’s economy will perform better than the rest of Canada. Overall, one in three Saskatchewan residents (32%) expect their household to be worse off a year from now, compared with 23 per cent who expect to be in a better financial place. Four in ten (40%) expect little change. Meanwhile, one-third (33%) expect Saskatchewan’s economy to outperform the rest of Canada during the next year, while 24 percent expect it to do worse. That confidence is concentrated among Saskatchewan Party voters (52%, vs. 27% of NDP voters) and men (40%, vs. 26% of women). Those aged 18–29 are more likely to expect Saskatchewan to fall behind compared to the rest of the country (39%).
Perceived opportunity for young people. Eight in ten Saskatchewan residents (79%) think a young person can build a good career and life in Saskatchewan without leaving, although only a third (32%) see a lot of opportunities for younger adults. Those living this reality directly – young adults aged 18 to 29 – are the least convinced this is the case (63% of those 18-29 compared to 88% of those 60+). There is also a strong partisan divide (94% of Saskatchewan Party supporters see opportunities for young people compared to 76% of NDP voters), while those in rural communities are more likely to believe this is the case (85% vs. 73% among those in Regina).
A strong proportion believe Saskatchewan’s future will be better than today. One-half (51%) believe Saskatchewan’s best days are still ahead of it, twice as many as say its best days are behind it (25%). Men (59%), university graduates (62%) and Saskatchewan Party voters (67%) are the most optimistic about their province’s future. Those 18-29 are the exception, as more of them say the province’s best days are behind it (44%) than ahead (38%).
Resources lead the opportunity list. When asked to assess which resources and economic development plays provide the greatest opportunity for Saskatchewan’s economy in the next 10 years, potash is rated highest (49%), ahead of oil and gas (41%), uranium and nuclear energy (40%), and processing more of what the province grows (36%). Older residents and Saskatchewan Party voters lean most heavily toward resource development providing strong economic opportunities, while younger residents are more likely to point to research, technology and tourism.
The Upshot
Saskatchewan residents have a deep attachment to their province. Most rate it highly as a place to live, value its affordability and pace of life, and believe its best days are still ahead. There is a strong sense of pride in what makes Saskatchewan great, and many feel sense of optimism about what lies ahead.
But as we see across the country, the mood about where things are headed contains some underlying anxiety. More people say the province is on the wrong track than the right one, more expect their own finances to get worse than better, and confidence in the economy and how to make it stronger breaks sharply along partisan lines. Residents see the province’s future in its resources, especially potash, energy and agriculture, but that vision resonates most with older residents and Saskatchewan Party voters.
There is also a clear generational warning sign. On nearly every measure, adults under 30 are the most pessimistic – they are less likely to say it is headed in the right direction, are less convinced they can build a future here, and are more likely to say its best days are behind it. For the past 20 years, the Saskatchewan Party government has worked hard to make the case that it is creating opportunities for young adults to stay and build a life in the province – and not head to Alberta or other provinces at the earliest opportunity. While its supporters are most bullish about these future opportunities, keeping the next generation believing in Saskatchewan may be the province’s most important challenge.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,000 Saskatchewan adults from October 5 to 13, 2026 as part of the new Abacus Data Saskatchewan quarterly omnibus survey.
A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey through a set of partner panels. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Saskatchewan’s population.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is approximately plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Totals may not add to 100% because of rounding. The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
About Abacus Data
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
With offices in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto, and now in Winnipeg following our acquisition of Probe Research, we can serve clients across the country.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
The post Saskatchewan residents love where they live, but some are uneasy about where it’s headed appeared first on Abacus Data.
]]>The post Liberals reach 48%, highest since April 2016, as approval for Carney government remains strong appeared first on Abacus Data.
]]>Despite those pressures, support for the Liberal Party and the federal government led by Mark Carney remains strong. In fact, our latest survey finds the Liberals reaching a level of national support we have not measured in more than a decade.
Forty-eight percent of committed voters would vote Liberal if an election were held today, the highest level of Liberal support in our tracking since April 2016.
The last time we measured Liberal support this high was during the first year of Justin Trudeau’s government, when the party received 49% of the vote in our April 2016 survey.
More than ten years later, the Liberals have returned to that level of public support under Mark Carney.
If an election were held today, 48% of committed voters would vote Liberal, 32% Conservative, 9% NDP, 6% Bloc Québécois, 3% Green, 1% People’s Party, and 1% another party.
The Liberal lead over the Conservatives is now 16 points, compared with 12 points in our October 13 survey.
Liberal support is up two points, from 46% to 48%, while Conservative support has fallen two points, from 34% to 32%.
And the improvement in Liberal vote intention is accompanied by continued positive assessments of the government and the Prime Minister.
Fifty-nine percent of Canadians approve of the job the federal government led by Mark Carney is doing, up two points from our previous survey. Disapproval has fallen three points to 26%.
The government’s net approval rating is now +33, compared with +28 in our October 13 survey.
Carney’s personal impression rating has also improved. Fifty-six percent of Canadians have a positive impression of the Prime Minister, while 27% have a negative impression, producing a net rating of +29.
That is up three points from our previous survey and leaves Carney with a substantially more positive personal rating than Pierre Poilievre, whose net impression remains at -8.
There is also evidence that the public’s underlying appetite for political change continues to look very different than it did one or two years ago.
Forty-two percent of Canadians now say they would re-elect the Liberals, compared with 36% who believe it is time for a change and that there is a good alternative available. Another 21% believe it is time for change but do not think there is a good alternative.
Two years ago, only 16% said they would re-elect the Liberals, while 54% believed it was time for a change and there was a good alternative.
That represents a substantial change in the underlying political environment.
But the latest results also reveal some important tensions.
The rising cost of living remains, by a considerable margin, the most frequently cited issue facing Canada, selected by 65% of Canadians.
And while almost six in ten Canadians approve of the government overall, only 31% approve of how it is handling the cost of living and inflation, down seven points from September.
On Canada’s relationship with the United States, by comparison, 56% approve of the government’s performance, while 54% approve of its handling of national defence and Canada’s security.
The result is a political environment in which support for the Liberals and the Prime Minister remains strong, even though Canadians continue to express considerable dissatisfaction with the handling of some of the domestic issues that matter most to them.
Liberals Lead Conservatives by 16 Points, Reaching Their Highest Vote Share Since April 2016
If an election were held today, 48% of committed voters would vote Liberal, 32% Conservative, 9% NDP, 6% Bloc Québécois, 3% Green, 1% People’s Party, and 1% another party.
Compared with our October 13 survey, Liberal support has increased two points while Conservative support has declined two points.
The NDP remains unchanged at 9%, while the Bloc Québécois has declined one point to 6%. Green Party support is unchanged at 3%, as is People’s Party support at 1%.
While the individual changes are modest and should be interpreted with the normal caution that applies to survey-to-survey movement, the longer-term picture is more notable.
At 48%, Liberal support is now at its highest level in our tracking since April 2016, when the party stood at 49%.
That was during the early months of Justin Trudeau’s first government, following the Liberal victory in the 2015 federal election.
Among those who say they are certain to vote in an election, the Liberals receive 48%, compared with 34% for the Conservatives.
That produces a 14-point Liberal lead among those expressing the greatest certainty about voting.
The NDP receives 8% among those certain to vote, the Bloc Québécois 6%, and the Greens 2%.
The Liberals also continue to have the largest accessible voter pool.
Sixty percent of Canadians say they would consider voting Liberal, compared with 47% who would consider voting Conservative and 33% who would consider voting NDP.
That represents a 13-point difference between the Liberal and Conservative accessible voter pools.
These results suggest that the Liberal Party’s advantage is not limited to current vote intention. The party also has a larger pool of Canadians who are open to supporting it.
Canadian Public Affairs Update · October 2026
Vote Intention: Liberals Lead Conservatives 48% to 32%
If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? (Undecided removed.)
Overall Federal Vote Intention
Liberals lead Conservatives by 16 points, 48% to 32%. Since October 13, Liberal support is up 2 points and Conservative support is down 2. The NDP is at 9%, the Bloc Québécois at 6%, and the Greens at 3%.
| Party | Current | Oct 13, 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 48% | 46% | ▲ +2 |
| Conservative | 32% | 34% | ▼ -2 |
| NDP | 9% | 9% | NC |
| Bloc Québécois | 6% | 7% | ▼ -1 |
| Green | 3% | 3% | NC |
| People’s Party | 1% | 1% | NC |
| Other | 1% | 0% | ▲ +1 |
Changes are percentage-point differences from October 13, 2026. NC means no change. Overall and likely-voter bars use a shared maximum of 48%. Undecided respondents are removed.
If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? (Undecided removed.)
Federal Vote Intention Trend
Liberal support is 48% and Conservative support is 32%. The Liberal lead widens from 12 to 16 points since October 13. NDP support remains 9%, Bloc Québécois support is 6%, and Green support remains 3%.
Liberal 48%Conservative 32%NDP 9%BQ 6%Green 3%
If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? (Undecided removed.) (By region, gender and age.)
Liberals lead in British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Conservatives lead in Alberta, while the two parties tie at 45% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Liberal support reaches 59% among adults aged 60 and over; the NDP reaches 18% among those aged 18 to 29.
Vote Intention by Region
| Party | Canada | BC | AB | SK/MB | ON | QC | ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 48% | 49% | 36% | 45% | 51% | 47% | 60% |
| Conservative | 32% | 31% | 51% | 45% | 33% | 19% | 28% |
| NDP | 9% | 14% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 5% | 7% |
| Bloc Québécois | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 26% | 0% |
| Green | 3% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 4% |
| People’s Party | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 1% |
| Other | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
The top three parties in each column are highlighted in their party colours. Percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding.
Vote Intention by Gender and Age
| Party | Canada | Male | Female | 18 to 29 | 30 to 44 | 45 to 59 | 60 and over |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 48% | 50% | 47% | 45% | 36% | 46% | 59% |
| Conservative | 32% | 34% | 30% | 26% | 44% | 35% | 25% |
| NDP | 9% | 7% | 11% | 18% | 11% | 7% | 5% |
| Bloc Québécois | 6% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 7% |
| Green | 3% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| People’s Party | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
| Other | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% |
The top three parties in each column are highlighted in their party colours. Canada is the national reference. Scroll horizontally to see all columns on narrow screens.
If an election was held today, which national political party would you vote for? (Undecided removed.) (Among those certain to vote.)
Federal Vote Intention Among Those Certain to Vote
Among those certain to vote, Liberals lead 48% to 34%. Conservative support is 2 points higher than among all decided voters. NDP and Green support are each 1 point lower, while Liberal and Bloc Québécois support are unchanged.
Turnout boost or suppression is the percentage-point difference from overall results, not a forecast. NC means no change. Shares total 99% due to rounding. Undecided respondents are removed; the subgroup sample size was not supplied.
Methodology
This research was conducted via online survey with 1,500 adults (age 18+) living in Canada from October 16 to 21, 2026.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 2.53 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Abacus Data · Canadian Public Affairs Update · October 21, 2026 · n=1,500 · MoE ±2.53%
abacusdata.ca
Liberals Lead Across Most of the Country, with Particularly Strong Results in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and Ontario
The regional picture continues to show substantial differences in federal voting preferences.
In Ontario, the Liberals lead the Conservatives by 18 points, with 51% of committed voters supporting the Liberals compared with 33% for the Conservatives. The NDP receives 9%.
In British Columbia, the Liberals also lead by 18 points, receiving 49% compared with 31% for the Conservatives and 14% for the NDP.
Atlantic Canada remains particularly favourable to the Liberals.
Sixty percent of committed voters in the region would vote Liberal, compared with 28% Conservative and 7% NDP.
That represents a 32-point Liberal advantage.
Quebec also continues to be an important source of Liberal strength.
Forty-seven percent of committed voters in Quebec would vote Liberal, compared with 26% for the Bloc Québécois and 19% for the Conservatives. The NDP receives 5%.
The Liberals therefore lead the Bloc by 21 points in Quebec.
In Alberta, the Conservatives lead with 51%, compared with 36% for the Liberals and 10% for the NDP.
In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the two largest parties are tied, with the Liberals and Conservatives each receiving 45%. The NDP is at 8%.
There are also important differences by age.
Among Canadians aged 60 and over, the Liberals receive 59% of the vote, compared with 25% for the Conservatives.
That 34-point Liberal advantage is considerably larger than the national gap.
Among Canadians aged 45 to 59, the Liberals lead 46% to 35%.
Among younger Canadians aged 18 to 29, the Liberals receive 45%, compared with 26% for the Conservatives and 18% for the NDP. The Greens receive 7%.
The clearest Conservative advantage is among Canadians aged 30 to 44.
In this group, 44% would vote Conservative compared with 36% Liberal and 11% NDP.
The Liberals also lead among both men and women.
Among men, Liberal support is 50% compared with 34% for the Conservatives. Among women, the numbers are 47% and 30%, respectively.
Educational attainment continues to be strongly associated with voting preferences.
Among university graduates, the Liberals lead the Conservatives by 28 points, 55% to 27%.
Among college graduates, the Liberal lead is 18 points, 48% to 30%.
But among Canadians with a high school education or less, the two parties are effectively tied, with the Liberals at 42% and the Conservatives at 41%.
The overall picture is of a Liberal coalition with substantial support across most regions and demographic groups, particularly among older Canadians and university graduates.
At the same time, the Conservatives retain important areas of strength, especially in Alberta, among Canadians aged 30 to 44, and among those without post-secondary education.
Government Approval Rises to 59%, with Disapproval Falling to 26%
The latest survey also finds continued positive assessments of the federal government led by Mark Carney.
Fifty-nine percent of Canadians approve of the job the government is doing, while 26% disapprove and 15% neither approve nor disapprove.
Compared with our October 13 survey, approval has increased two points, from 57% to 59%, while disapproval has fallen three points, from 29% to 26%.
The government’s net approval rating is now +33, compared with +28 in our previous survey.
Canadian Public Affairs Update · October 2026
Government Approval: 59% Approve of the Federal Government
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job the federal government led by Mark Carney is doing?
Overall Government Approval
A majority of Canadians approve of the federal government, at 59%. Approval is up 2 points since October 13, while disapproval is down 3 points to 26%. Fifteen per cent neither approve nor disapprove.
Neither
15%Neither approve nor disapprove
Disapprove
26%▼ -3 since October 13
Approve combines strongly and somewhat approve; disapprove combines somewhat and strongly disapprove. The 22% strongly and 36% somewhat approve shares sum to 58% after rounding, compared with 59% overall approval. Five rounded components total 99%. Changes are from October 13, 2026.
Overall approval and disapproval of the federal government over time.
Government Approval Trend
Approval is 59% and disapproval is 26%. The October 13 wave rounds to 57% approval and 29% disapproval, consistent with the current changes of +2 and -3 points.
Approve 59%Disapprove 26%
Methodology
This research was conducted via online survey with 1,500 adults (age 18+) living in Canada from October 16 to 21, 2026.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 2.53 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Abacus Data · Canadian Public Affairs Update · October 21, 2026 · n=1,500 · MoE ±2.53%
abacusdata.ca
Canadians Continue to Rate the Government More Positively on Canada-U.S. Relations and National Security Than on Affordability
Our survey asks Canadians whether they approve or disapprove of how the federal government is handling ten specific policy areas.
The results show a substantial difference between overall government approval and assessments of its performance on some of the most pressing domestic issues.
The government’s strongest approval ratings are on Canada’s relationship with the United States and national defence.
Fifty-six percent of Canadians approve of how the government is handling Canada’s relationship with the United States, compared with 57% in September and 50% in August.
On national defence and Canada’s security, 54% approve, up from 52% in September and 50% in August.
These are the only two areas where a majority of Canadians approve of the government’s performance.
After that, approval falls below 50%.
Forty-four percent approve of the government’s handling of jobs and economic growth, up from 43% in September and 41% in August.
Thirty-nine percent approve of its handling of crime and public safety, while 38% approve of its handling of access to healthcare.
Thirty-seven percent approve of the government’s handling of immigration, and the same proportion approve of its handling of climate change and the environment.
Thirty-six percent approve of its handling of the federal deficit and government spending.
On housing affordability and supply, approval stands at 34%.
And on the cost of living and inflation, only 31% approve of the government’s performance.
That is the lowest approval rating of the ten issues tested.
It is also down seven points from September, when 38% approved of the government’s handling of the cost of living and inflation.
Forty-six percent now disapprove of how the government is handling that issue.
This is one of the most important tensions in the current political environment.
Almost six in ten Canadians approve of the federal government overall.
But fewer than one in three approve of how it is handling the cost of living and inflation, which continues to be the most frequently identified issue facing the country.
They continue to make significant distinctions between how the government is managing Canada’s relationship with the United States, how it is approaching national security, and how it is responding to domestic economic pressures.
For now, those weaker assessments on affordability have not been accompanied by a decline in overall government approval or Liberal vote intention.
Carney’s Personal Impression Improves to +29, While Poilievre Remains at -8
Mark Carney continues to have a strongly positive personal impression rating.
Fifty-six percent of Canadians have a positive impression of the Prime Minister, while 27% have a negative impression and 15% are neutral.
That produces a net impression of +29.
Compared with our October 13 survey, Carney’s positive rating has increased one point, while his negative rating has declined two points.
His net impression has therefore improved from +26 to +29.
While that remains slightly below the +31 net impression recorded in late September, it is nevertheless a substantially positive result.
And Carney continues to have a considerably more positive net impression than the other major federal party leaders.
Pierre Poilievre is viewed positively by 37% of Canadians and negatively by 45%, producing a net impression of -8.
That is unchanged from the reported net impression in our previous survey.
Avi Lewis is viewed positively by 17% and negatively by 27%, for a net impression of -10.
Twenty-four percent of Canadians say they do not know enough about Lewis to offer an opinion.
Canadian Public Affairs Update · October 2026
Leader Impressions: Carney Records a +29 Net Rating
Do you have a positive or negative impression of the following people?
Overall Leader Comparison
Mark Carney has a net-positive impression of +29. Pierre Poilievre is at -8 and Avi Lewis at -10. Carney is viewed positively by 56%, compared with 37% for Poilievre and 17% for Lewis.
Mark Carney
Liberal leader
Net +29
Positive 56%
Neutral 15%
Negative 27%
Don't know enough to say 2%
Pierre Poilievre
Conservative leader
Net -8
Positive 37%
Neutral 14%
Negative 45%
Don't know enough to say 4%
Avi Lewis
NDP leader
Net -10
Positive 17%
Neutral 32%
Negative 27%
Don't know enough to say 24%
Net impression is positive minus negative, reported in percentage points. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Net impression of Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre over time.
Carney versus Poilievre: Net Impression
Carney has a net impression of +29 and Poilievre is at -8. Since October 13, Carney improves 3 points from +26 while Poilievre remains at -8.
Mark Carney +29Pierre Poilievre -8
Do you have a positive or negative impression of Mark Carney? (Net impression by subgroup.)
Mark Carney Net Impression by Subgroup
Carney’s net impression is positive in every region. His net rating reaches +42 in Quebec and +47 among adults aged 60 and over. Among 2025 Liberal voters it is +83, compared with -28 among Conservative voters.
Overall
Canada+29
Region
BC+30
AB+20
SK/MB+18
ON+27
QC+42
ATL+27
Gender
Male+31
Female+28
Age
18 to 29+31
30 to 44+9
45 to 59+20
60 and over+47
Household income
Under $35K+21
$35K to $50K+27
$50K to $75K+26
$75K to $100K+32
$100K ++39
Community
Urban+33
Suburban+27
Rural+23
2025 Vote
Liberal+83
Conservative-28
NDP+42
BQ+17
Values are net impressions in percentage points. The shared signed scale is -100 to +100, with zero at the centre. Green denotes positive and red negative. The national reference is shown once; 2025 vote is past federal vote choice, not current intention.
Do you have a positive or negative impression of Pierre Poilievre? (Net impression by subgroup.)
Pierre Poilievre Net Impression by Subgroup
Poilievre’s net impression is positive in Alberta and Saskatchewan and Manitoba. His net rating is +18 in Alberta and -22 in Quebec. Among adults aged 30 to 44 it is +13, compared with -23 among those aged 60 and over.
Overall
Canada-8
Region
BC-9
AB+18
SK/MB+11
ON-10
QC-22
ATL-5
Gender
Male-6
Female-9
Age
18 to 29-4
30 to 44+13
45 to 59-7
60 and over-23
Household income
Under $35K-9
$35K to $50K-16
$50K to $75K-7
$75K to $100K+3
$100K +-10
Community
Urban-5
Suburban-12
Rural-5
2025 Vote
Liberal-59
Conservative+73
NDP-50
BQ-45
Values are net impressions in percentage points. The shared signed scale is -100 to +100, with zero at the centre. Green denotes positive and red negative. The national reference is shown once; 2025 vote is past federal vote choice, not current intention.
Methodology
This research was conducted via online survey with 1,500 adults (age 18+) living in Canada from October 16 to 21, 2026.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 2.53 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Abacus Data · Canadian Public Affairs Update · October 21, 2026 · n=1,500 · MoE ±2.53%
abacusdata.ca
Carney’s personal standing remains positive in every region of the country.
His net impression is +42 in Quebec, +30 in British Columbia, +27 in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, +20 in Alberta, and +18 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
Poilievre’s personal ratings show a different pattern.
His net impression is positive in Alberta (+18) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (+11), but negative in British Columbia (-9), Ontario (-10), Quebec (-22), and Atlantic Canada (-5).
He is also viewed more positively by Canadians aged 30 to 44, among whom his net impression is +13.
Among those aged 60 and over, his net impression is -23.
Cost of Living Remains the Top Issue Facing Canada, Selected by 65%
The rising cost of living remains, by a considerable margin, the most frequently selected issue facing Canada.
Sixty-five percent of Canadians identify it as one of the three most important issues facing the country, up one point from our October 13 survey.
Donald Trump and his administration remain second, selected by 40% of Canadians.
The economy is selected by 34%, healthcare by 33%, and housing affordability and accessibility by 28%.
Immigration is selected by 23%, crime and public safety by 17%, and job security and unemployment by 15%.
Climate change and the environment is selected by 14%, inequality and poverty by 12%, and the rise of artificial intelligence by 11%.
The threat posed by China and Russia is selected by 7%, while Indigenous reconciliation is selected by 3%.
Canadian Public Affairs Update · October 2026
Top Issues: Cost of Living Leads at 65%
What are the 3 most important issues facing Canada today? Please select 3 issues.
Overall Top Issues
The rising cost of living leads at 65%. Donald Trump and his administration ranks second at 40%, followed by the economy at 34%, healthcare at 33% and housing affordability and accessibility at 28%.
Respondents selected three issues, so totals exceed 100%.
What are the 3 most important issues facing Canada today? Please select 3 issues. (By region.)
The rising cost of living is the leading issue in every region. It reaches 72% in Atlantic Canada and 69% in Alberta. Healthcare is selected by 42% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, while concern about Donald Trump reaches 51% in Quebec.
Top Issues by Region
| Issue | BC | AB | SK/MB | ON | QC | ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The rising cost of living | 67% | 69% | 66% | 61% | 66% | 72% |
| Donald Trump and his administration | 38% | 30% | 34% | 39% | 51% | 36% |
| The economy | 34% | 46% | 25% | 34% | 33% | 29% |
| Healthcare | 37% | 29% | 42% | 27% | 37% | 37% |
| Housing affordability and accessibility | 26% | 26% | 16% | 32% | 25% | 32% |
| Immigration | 18% | 25% | 32% | 22% | 26% | 21% |
| Crime and public safety | 20% | 19% | 26% | 19% | 6% | 16% |
| Job security and unemployment | 18% | 14% | 10% | 19% | 7% | 11% |
| Climate change and the environment | 13% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 21% | 11% |
| Inequality and poverty | 12% | 8% | 14% | 10% | 15% | 12% |
| The rise of artificial intelligence | 8% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 6% | 12% |
| The threat posed by China and Russia | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 9% |
| Indigenous reconciliation | 1% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
Exactly three issues per column are highlighted. Regional percentages are column percentages. Respondents selected three issues, so column totals exceed 100%. Scroll horizontally to view all six regions.
Which party do you think would do best on… (Among those who rated the issue in their Top 3.)
Best Party Able to Handle Each Issue
Liberals lead on seven issues, Conservatives on four, and Greens on climate. On the economy, Liberals and Conservatives tie at 40%. On climate, Green support is 30%, ahead of the Liberals at 28%.
Healthcare
Liberal 39%
The rising cost of living
Conservative 37%
Housing affordability and accessibility
Liberal 31%
Crime and public safety
Conservative 55%
The economy
Tie 40%
Climate change and the environment
Green 30%
The threat posed by China and Russia
Liberal 51%
Inequality and poverty
Liberal 33%
Indigenous reconciliation
Liberal 37%
Immigration
Conservative 59%
The rise of artificial intelligence
Liberal 41%
Donald Trump and his administration
Liberal 67%
Job security and unemployment
Conservative 38%
| Issue | Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Unsure | Leading party |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 39% | 21% | 18% | 18% | Liberal +18 |
| The rising cost of living | 32% | 37% | 9% | 17% | Conservative +5 |
| Housing affordability and accessibility | 31% | 28% | 14% | 21% | Liberal +3 |
| Crime and public safety | 24% | 55% | 4% | 13% | Conservative +31 |
| The economy | 40% | 40% | 4% | 12% | Liberal / Conservative tie |
| Climate change and the environment | 28% | 10% | 12% | 15% | Green +2 |
| The threat posed by China and Russia | 51% | 27% | 3% | 10% | Liberal +24 |
| Inequality and poverty | 33% | 16% | 25% | 19% | Liberal +8 |
| Indigenous reconciliation | 37% | 18% | 21% | 10% | Liberal +16 |
| Immigration | 13% | 59% | 3% | 13% | Conservative +46 |
| The rise of artificial intelligence | 41% | 17% | 6% | 28% | Liberal +24 |
| Donald Trump and his administration | 67% | 14% | 3% | 12% | Liberal +53 |
| Job security and unemployment | 29% | 38% | 8% | 18% | Conservative +9 |
The chart shows the leading party’s share. The table compares Liberal, Conservative and NDP shares, plus Unsure. Green leads on climate at 30%, versus Liberal 28%, NDP 12% and Conservative 10%. The economy is a 40%-40% Liberal-Conservative tie, not a party advantage. Margins compare the two highest party shares, not Unsure. Omitted shares and rounding mean displayed rows do not sum to 100%.
Methodology
This research was conducted via online survey with 1,500 adults (age 18+) living in Canada from October 16 to 21, 2026.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 2.53 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Abacus Data · Canadian Public Affairs Update · October 21, 2026 · n=1,500 · MoE ±2.53%
abacusdata.ca
Compared with our previous survey, the overall ranking of issues has changed relatively little.
Concern about the rising cost of living has increased one point, while concern about Donald Trump and his administration is unchanged at 40%.
The economy has declined three points to 34%, while housing affordability and accessibility has declined four points to 28%.
Concern about job security and unemployment has increased three points to 15%.
The broader pattern remains one in which Canadians are focused on a combination of domestic affordability pressures and the challenges associated with Canada’s relationship with the United States.
There are also some important regional differences.
In Atlantic Canada, 72% select the rising cost of living as a top-three issue.
The share is 69% in Alberta, 67% in British Columbia, 66% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 66% in Quebec, and 61% in Ontario.
The rising cost of living is therefore the most frequently selected issue in every region of the country.
Quebec continues to stand out when it comes to concern about Donald Trump and his administration.
Fifty-one percent of Quebecers select Trump and his administration as a top-three issue, compared with 40% nationally.
But the cost of living is now selected by 66% of Quebecers, leaving it 15 points ahead of concern about Trump.
Liberals Retain a Large Advantage on Trump, While Conservatives Lead on Immigration, Crime, and the Cost of Living
Our survey also asks Canadians which political party they think would do the best job dealing with the issues they identify as most important.
The results reveal substantial differences in how the parties are perceived across the public agenda.
Among Canadians who identify Donald Trump and his administration as one of their three most important issues, 67% think the Liberal Party would do the best job dealing with it, compared with 14% who select the Conservatives.
That represents a 53-point Liberal advantage.
It remains one of the largest differences between the two parties on any issue we measure.
The Liberals are also ahead among those concerned about the threat posed by China and Russia, with 51% selecting the Liberals and 27% the Conservatives.
On healthcare, 39% select the Liberals, compared with 21% for the Conservatives and 18% for the NDP.
On housing affordability and accessibility, the Liberals are selected by 31%, the Conservatives by 28%, and the NDP by 14%.
On the economy, however, the two parties are tied.
Forty percent of Canadians who identify the economy as a top-three issue think the Liberals would do the best job handling it, and the same proportion select the Conservatives.
And on the rising cost of living, the Conservatives hold a modest advantage.
Thirty-seven percent of those who identify the cost of living as a top issue think the Conservatives would do the best job dealing with it, compared with 32% who select the Liberals.
The Conservative advantage is much larger on some other issues.
Among Canadians who identify immigration as a top-three issue, 59% select the Conservatives as the party best able to handle it, compared with 13% who select the Liberals.
On crime and public safety, the Conservatives lead 55% to 24%.
On job security and unemployment, the Conservatives are selected by 38%, compared with 29% for the Liberals.
Optimism About Canada Holds at 47%, While Views of the World and United States Remain Deeply Negative
Forty-seven percent of Canadians believe the country is heading in the right direction, while 41% think Canada is on the wrong track.
Compared with our October 13 survey, the share who think Canada is heading in the right direction is unchanged, while the share who think it is on the wrong track has declined one point.
The balance of opinion remains more positive than negative, although fewer than half of Canadians believe the country is heading in the right direction.
And the contrast between how Canadians view Canada and how they view the rest of the world remains substantial.
Only 13% believe the world is heading in the right direction, while 74% think it is on the wrong track.
For the United States, just 12% believe the country is heading in the right direction, while 82% think it is on the wrong track.
The gap between optimism about Canada and optimism about the world is therefore 34 points.
The Upshot
Proposed commentary for Abacus Data CEO David Coletto:
“This is a particularly notable survey because the Liberals have reached a level of national support we haven’t measured in more than ten years.
At 48%, the Liberal Party is at its highest point in our tracking since April 2016.
That was during the early months of Justin Trudeau’s first government, when the Liberals were still enjoying the support that followed their 2015 election victory.
More than a decade later, we are seeing the party return to that level under Mark Carney.
And I think that is the most important finding in this survey.
The Liberals are now at 48%. The Conservatives are at 32%. The Liberal lead has widened to 16 points.
Government approval is back to 59%, while disapproval has fallen to 26%. Carney’s personal net impression has improved to +29, compared with -8 for Pierre Poilievre.
None of these individual movements is especially dramatic. But taken together, they point to a political environment in which the government continues to enjoy substantial public support, and where the Liberals have reached a historically high level of voting intention.
There are three things that stand out to me.
First, the continued strength of the Liberals is particularly notable given the economic and political environment in which this government is operating.
The cost of living remains the most important issue facing the country for almost two thirds of Canadians.
There is substantial concern about housing affordability, the economy, healthcare, and job security.
And Canadians are far from uniformly satisfied with how the government is responding to those pressures.
Only 31% approve of how the government is handling the cost of living and inflation. That’s down seven points from September.
Only 34% approve of its handling of housing affordability and supply, and 44% approve of its approach to jobs and economic growth.
These are not especially strong performance ratings on issues that matter a great deal to Canadians.
And yet, 59% approve of the government overall, and 48% of committed voters say they would vote Liberal.
That tells me Canadians are making a distinction between their assessment of specific policy outcomes and their broader assessment of the government and Prime Minister.
They may be dissatisfied with the cost of living or worried about the economy, while still feeling more positive about the overall direction and leadership of the government.
Second, the Liberals continue to have a very substantial advantage when it comes to managing Canada’s relationship with the United States.
Forty percent of Canadians still identify Donald Trump and his administration as one of the three most important issues facing the country.
And among those who identify it as a major concern, 67% think the Liberals would do the best job handling it, compared with just 14% who select the Conservatives.
That is an enormous difference.
It is also consistent with the government’s broader performance ratings.
Fifty-six percent approve of how the government is handling Canada’s relationship with the United States, and 54% approve of its handling of national defence and security.
These remain the two areas where the government receives majority approval.
So even as the cost of living dominates the public agenda, the relationship with the United States remains an important part of how Canadians are evaluating the federal government.
The central story of this survey is unmistakable.
More than a year and a half into Mark Carney’s time as Prime Minister, the Liberal Party is polling at its highest level in more than a decade, almost six in ten Canadians approve of the government, and the Prime Minister continues to have a substantially positive personal rating.
The striking thing is not that Canadians are satisfied with every aspect of the government’s performance.
It’s that substantial support for the government and the Liberal Party continues despite clear dissatisfaction with some of the country’s most pressing domestic challenges.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from October 16 to 21, 2026.
A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the online survey from a set of partner panels. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews in the data from relying on a single source.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Canada’s population.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Totals may not add to 100 because of rounding.
The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
About Abacus Data
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
With offices in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto, and now in Winnipeg following our acquisition of Probe Research, we can serve clients across the country.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
The post Liberals reach 48%, highest since April 2016, as approval for Carney government remains strong appeared first on Abacus Data.
]]>The post Mississauga mayoral race is a three-way contest, with Tedjo holding strongest favourability rating appeared first on Abacus Data.
]]>The survey, conducted from October 14 to 18, 2026, finds Crombie at 31%, Tedjo at 29%, Parrish at 26%, and Dipika Damerla at 12% among voters who have already voted or expressed a preference, including leaners.
While the ballot is closely divided, the survey reveals important differences in how voters view the candidates, where their support comes from, and which issues they are best positioned to address.
Three Candidates Closely Matched
Among decided and leaning voters, Crombie receives 31%, Tedjo 28%, and Parrish 27%, with Damerla at 10%.
When undecided voters are included in the overall ballot, the race remains close. Crombie receives 26%, Tedjo 25%, Parrish 22%, and Damerla 10%. Importantly, 16% of voters remain undecided, representing a substantial share of the electorate in a race where the top three candidates are separated by just four points.
The overall picture is a highly competitive race, but one where each candidate’s support is distributed differently across the city.
Tedjo Has the Strongest Positive Impression Rating
Forty-one percent of Mississauga voters have a positive impression of Tedjo, compared with just 8% who have a negative impression.
That produces a net impression of +33, the highest among the four candidates.
Parrish has a net impression of +8, with 37% positive and 29% negative. Damerla’s net impression is +16, while Crombie is the only candidate viewed more negatively than positively, with a net rating of -7.
Tedjo’s net impression is positive across every region of Mississauga and among both younger and older voters.
However, 22% say they don’t know enough about him to offer an opinion, suggesting there remains an opportunity to build familiarity in the final days of the campaign.
Affordability and Property Taxes Dominate the Agenda
The cost of living and affordability is the most important issue facing Mississauga, selected by 38% of voters, followed by property taxes and city spending at 19%.
Crime and public safety and housing follow at 11% each.
Among voters most concerned about property taxes and city spending, 45% think Tedjo would do the best job, compared with 9% for Crombie and 8% for Parrish.
On cost of living, Crombie leads with 26%, followed by Parrish at 24% and Tedjo at 14%.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto:
“This is a genuinely competitive mayoral race. Three candidates are closely matched, and there is no clear frontrunner.
What stands out is the difference between the ballot and how voters feel about the candidates.
Tedjo has the strongest net impression and the fewest negative impressions, but that hasn’t yet translated into a lead on the ballot.
He also has a substantial advantage on property taxes and city spending, an issue that almost one in five voters identify as their top concern.
The question is whether Tedjo can translate his positive personal ratings into additional support while convincing more voters he is best equipped to address their biggest concerns.”
Methodology
This survey was commissioned by the Alvin Tedjo campaign and conducted by Abacus Data from October 14 to 18, 2026, among 700 eligible Mississauga voters.
Quotas were established for age, gender, and region, and the data were weighted using these characteristics to match Mississauga’s population.
The combined ballot includes 598 respondents who had already voted or indicated a candidate preference, including leaners.
A comparable probability-based random sample of 700 would have a margin of error of ±3.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
About Abacus Data
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
With offices in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto, and now in Winnipeg following our acquisition of Probe Research, we can serve clients across the country.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
The post Mississauga mayoral race is a three-way contest, with Tedjo holding strongest favourability rating appeared first on Abacus Data.
]]>The post Saskatchewan Party, NDP neck and neck as half of residents say it’s time for a change appeared first on Abacus Data.
]]>As part of that commitment, we are launching a new quarterly omnibus survey to regularly track public opinion, political attitudes, and the issues shaping life in the province.
Our goal is to bring more independent, high-quality research to Saskatchewan and help governments, businesses, organizations, and the public better understand what residents are thinking and feeling.
Today, we’re releasing the first results from this new research program, focused on provincial politics, government performance, and the priorities of Saskatchewan residents. This is the first of three reports we’ll share over the next few days, offering a deeper look at public opinion in Saskatchewan as Abacus Data continues to build its presence and invest in understanding Western Canada.
Abacus Data’s latest insights on Saskatchewan politics show the Saskatchewan Party remains in a strong position, but the appetite for change is significant.
In a province divided by geography and age, the overall race is a dead heat. Among decided voters, the Saskatchewan Party sits at 48% and the NDP at 46%, with 6% supporting other parties not represented in the Legislature.
The NDP has a very strong lead in Saskatoon (62% to 34%) and Regina (54% to 41%). Outside the two major cities, the Saskatchewan Party remains dominant. It holds a slight edge in small cities like Moose Jaw, Prince Albert, Swift Current, Yorkton and North Battleford (54% to 45%), with this gap widening in the rural south (60% to 28%) and central/northern (58% to 36%) regions of the province.
Age is just as sharp a divide. The NDP leads among every age group under 60, while the Saskatchewan Party is buoyed by a major advantage among those 60+ (65% to 32%). Men lean towards the Saskatchewan Party (51% to 43%), with women slightly more likely to favour the NDP (50% to 45%).
Half of Saskatchewan residents say it’s time for a change. Only three in ten (31%) say the Saskatchewan Party government has done a good job and deserves re-election. Half (50%) express a desire for change: this includes three in ten (32%) who say the government has done a poor job, and another one in five (18%) who say the Saskatchewan Party has done a good job but still believe it’s still time for a change. One in five (19%) are unsure.
The cost of living in the biggest and broadest issue in Saskatchewan. More than six in ten residents (63%) cite the cost of living as their main issue, with four in ten (42%) choosing health care as their top concern. Housing affordability, the state of the economy and jobs, addictions, mental health and homelessness and crime and public safety are each mentioned by more than one in five residents. The cost of living is a unifying concern for all residents – NDP supporters are more likely to worry about housing affordability and addiction, mental health and homelessness in their communities. Residents under 45 are about three times as likely as those aged 60+ to name housing affordability as a top issue (41-42% vs. 13%), while health care dominates for those 60+ (60% vs. 24% of those 18–29). Women are also more likely than men to prioritize housing (34% vs. 21%) and addiction, mental health and homelessness (27% vs. 15%).
The federal government earns high marks from residents. More Saskatchewan residents are satisfied than dissatisfied with Mark Carney’s federal Liberal government (53% to 39%). Approval of the federal government is slightly higher than satisfaction with the Saskatchewan Party’s provincial government, as residents are split (46% satisfied, 45% dissatisfied). Nearly a quarter of Saskatchewan residents (24%) are very dissatisfied with the incumbent government.
Views of NDP leader Carla Beck are relatively positive – but she remains somewhat unknown. Impressions of the two major provincial party leaders are similar: one-half (48%) view Moe positively and 47% view Beck positively. The difference more residents have a negative impression of Moe, as his net rating is +7, while Beck’s is +13. Fewer people view Beck very negatively (16% compared to 23% for Moe), with a higher proportion not knowing enough about her to provide a rating (19% vs. 10%).
Moe owns the economy and Saskatchewan’s interests. Beck owns health care. Neither has an edge on the cost of living. Residents were asked to assess whether Moe or Beck do the best job on seven key dimensions. Respondents are most likely to choose Moe as best for standing up for Saskatchewan with Ottawa (40% to 28%), having a clear plan for Saskatchewan’s economy (37% to 25%) and having a clear vision for the province’s future (37% to 26%). Beck scores higher than Moe on improving health care (39% to 29%) and is seen as more empathetic (35% say she cares about people like you, compared to 29% for Moe). The two party leaders are tied on making life more affordable (31% each) and being honest and trustworthy (31% Moe, 32% Beck).
The Upshot
Next year, the Saskatchewan Party will mark two decades in power. After nearly 20 years of Saskatchewan Party dominance, the political scene is now much more competitive than it once was as more voters, especially younger adults and urban residents, express a desire for change. That being said, the Saskatchewan Party still has some inherent advantages thanks to geography and its rock-solid support among older voters.
The opportunity for the NDP is clear, but so are its limits. Carla Beck is viewed positively and leads on some issues, yet one in five people still don’t know enough about her to provide a rating. Scott Moe’s advantages continue to be that he is seen as having the best economic plan and the one most likely to stand up for Saskatchewan’s interests. But with the cost of living a major concern – and neither party leader decisively owning this issue – there is an opportunity for the two major party leaders to stake their claim to helping Saskatchewan residents navigate this day-to-day challenge.
The upcoming legislative session is an important one, as the coming months will likely turn on whether the NDP can turn the desire for change into confidence in their party after two decades in the opposition wilderness. Meanwhile, for the Saskatchewan Party, the lead-up to the next election will turn on whether it can persuade those who think it has done a good job that it still deserves another term.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,000 Saskatchewan adults from October 5 to 13, 2026 as part of the new Abacus Data Saskatchewan quarterly omnibus survey.
A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey through a set of partner panels. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Saskatchewan’s population.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is approximately plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Totals may not add to 100% because of rounding. The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
About Abacus Data
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
With offices in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto, and now in Winnipeg following our acquisition of Probe Research, we can serve clients across the country.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
The post Saskatchewan Party, NDP neck and neck as half of residents say it’s time for a change appeared first on Abacus Data.
]]>The post Canada’s Nature Advantage: Canadians Are Ready to Put Nature’s Economic Value to Work appeared first on Abacus Data.
]]>Conversations about Canada’s economic future often focus on what we need to build: infrastructure, industries, trading relationships and new sources of growth. But an important part of that future also depends on how we invest in the strengths already around us: our forests, farmlands, wetlands and waters.
Our latest research for Canada’s Nature Advantage shows that Canadians increasingly recognize this connection. At a time of persistent economic anxiety, nature remains a source of confidence in Canada’s long-term prospects.
And that confidence extends beyond the general idea that nature matters. Canadians support practical ways to bring its value into economic decisions, encourage businesses to invest, reward the people who steward our lands and waters and support partnerships with Indigenous Nations.
The findings point to an opportunity to move the conversation forward: from recognizing Canada’s nature advantage to putting it to work.
Nature’s economic value is increasingly clear
Canadians continue to balance economic concerns with a desire for action on climate change. Nearly eight in ten (79%) express a high degree of concern about the economy, unchanged from 2025, while 86% believe climate change is happening and governments should act.
Against this backdrop, recognition of nature’s economic importance is nearly unanimous:
- 96% agree nature is one of Canada’s most valuable economic assets, up five percentage points from 2025.
- 93% agree investing in nature can secure Canada’s long-term economic resilience and independence, up six points.
- 96% say it is important for Canada to position nature as one of its most valuable economic assets, up three points.
These findings suggest Canadians see investment in nature as relevant to the country’s economic future, even while affordability and financial pressures remain immediate concerns.
For governments, businesses and organizations working to advance this agenda, that is a strong starting point. The public already recognizes the value. The opportunity is to show how Canada can translate it into tangible benefits.
Bringing nature into the way Canada invests
Recognizing nature as an economic asset has practical implications. If forests, wetlands, grasslands and freshwater contribute to Canada’s resilience, how should their value be reflected in public budgets and investment decisions?
Canadians are receptive to making that connection more explicit.
More than three in four (77%) support treating investments that improve natural assets as investments in Canada’s long-term economic resilience, similarly to roads, bridges and other infrastructure.
Nearly three in four (74%) support governments measuring the economic value of natural assets when preparing budgets and investment plans. A similar share (75%) support federal investment in environmental monitoring, mapping and data systems to help governments, industry, Indigenous Nations and other organizations make better land-management decisions.
Together, these findings support a more deliberate approach to valuing, managing and investing in nature. Canadians are open to economic planning that accounts for the contribution of healthy ecosystems, supported by information that helps decision-makers understand what is improving and where investment is needed.
Turning public support into private investment
Canadians also support a role for government in creating the conditions for businesses and investors to act.
Three in four (76%) support the federal government dedicating more of its existing investment portfolio to encourage private investment in nature-based solutions, essentially unchanged from 75% last year.
Support extends to other approaches that encourage private capital:
- 77% support government programs designed to encourage companies and investors to fund productive practices that work with nature, with most of the funding coming from the private sector; and
- 70% support using public investment to attract larger amounts of private investment into conservation, restoration and sustainable land management.
Some of the strongest support emerges when the benefits are connected to people working directly on the land:
- 81% support targeted tax breaks for farmers, foresters and land managers adopting practices that improve wildlife habitat, water quality, carbon storage and wildfire resilience.
These findings identify several broadly supported ways to encourage investment. They also suggest that practical explanations matter: who is investing, what practices are changing, who benefits and how environmental improvements will be measured.
Measurable results and Indigenous partnership
Canadians also respond to approaches that show investments in nature are delivering real results and that the benefits are shared.
Three in four (75%) support lower taxes for private-sector investments that demonstrate measurable environmental outcomes. That support points to the importance of reliable ways to measure, verify and value what nature investments deliver, the foundation that credible markets for nature outcomes depend on.
Seven in ten (71%) support lower taxes that encourage partnerships between Indigenous Nations and private-sector organizations undertaking sustainable land-management projects. Canadians also want better data to serve Indigenous Nations alongside governments and industry, as reflected in the 75% who support federal investment in shared monitoring, mapping and data systems.
For those designing these approaches, the implication is clear: Canadians are receptive when investments in nature produce results that can be measured and verified, and when they are built in partnership with the people and Nations closest to the land.
The upshot
Canada’s nature advantage has a strong foundation in public opinion. Recognition of nature’s economic value has increased since last year, and support extends to concrete ways of investing in it.
Canadians are open to treating natural assets as infrastructure, incorporating their value into government planning, investing in better data, using public dollars to mobilize private investment and rewarding farmers, foresters, land managers and Indigenous partnerships for practices that improve nature.
They also want those investments to deliver results that can be measured and verified.
The opportunity now is to make these approaches tangible. Projects that show who invests, who benefits and what improves can help turn broad agreement into confidence in implementation.
Canadians already see nature as part of the country’s economic strength. This research suggests there is substantial room to build policies and investment opportunities that put that strength to work.
About the research
This research was conducted by Abacus Data for Canada’s Nature Advantage.
The survey of 1,941 Canadian adults was conducted September 2–10, 2026.
Data were weighted by age, gender, education and region to reflect the Canadian population according to census data. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding. Comparisons with 2025 refer to the previous wave of this tracking study.
About Abacus Data
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
With offices in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto, and now in Winnipeg following our acquisition of Probe Research, we can serve clients across the country.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
The post Canada’s Nature Advantage: Canadians Are Ready to Put Nature’s Economic Value to Work appeared first on Abacus Data.
]]>The post In Alberta, 87% Worry About the Cost of Living, With Very Few (6%) Prioritizing Independence appeared first on Abacus Data.
]]>Albertans see considerable opportunity in energy exports and new trade relationships. But they are more worried about the cost of living and strained public services than the referendum itself.
Eighty-seven percent are concerned about housing costs and the overall cost of living, including 62% who are very concerned. Eighty-three percent worry about services failing to keep up with population growth.
When asked what the provincial government should prioritize next year, 43% choose affordability and 38% health care. Just 10% choose getting a better deal within Canada and 6% moving toward independence.
And Albertans give the government its worst marks on these priority issues.
Seventy-seven percent rate its performance on the cost of living as poor. Seventy percent say the same about housing and 64% about health care.
The overall picture is clear. The referendum may have dominated politics, but the public’s priorities lie elsewhere.
Pipelines, LNG and Trade Are the Opportunities Albertans See
Energy and new trade opportunities top the list of what Albertans hope to see in the future.
Sixty-two percent say building pipelines to get oil and gas to new markets is a major opportunity. Fifty-five percent say the same about liquefied natural gas exports to Asia and Europe, and 50% about trade relationships beyond the United States.
And this outlook crosses the referendum divide.
Pipelines are seen as a major opportunity by 61% of remain supporters and 74% of Option 2 supporters. On LNG, the figures are 57% and 58%, and on new trade relationships, 54% and 51%.
Where the two camps differ sharply is Ottawa. Two-thirds of Option 2 supporters (66%) see negotiating greater provincial control as a major opportunity, compared with 33% of remain supporters.
There is also far less enthusiasm about AI data centres. Just 22% consider them a major opportunity, while 32% do not see them as an opportunity at all. Albertans appear more convinced by energy and trade diversification than by the promise of a new technology industry taking root in their province.
Affordability and Public Services Worry Albertans Most
The hierarchy of Albertans’ concerns is revealing.
Eighty-seven percent worry about housing and the cost of living. Eighty-three percent worry about public services keeping pace with growth. Seventy-five percent are concerned about tariffs and trade tensions with the U.S.
Referendum-related concerns rank lower: 69% worry about growing division, 69% about investment going elsewhere and 66% about uncertainty over Alberta’s place in Canada.
One concern is particularly polarizing.
Fifty-six percent worry that an independent Alberta could become part of the United States, including 38% who are very concerned.
Among remain supporters, 48% are very concerned about this prospect. Among Option 2 supporters, only 16% are.
But the concerns uniting both camps are immediate. Sixty-seven percent of remain supporters and 55% of Option 2 supporters are very concerned about affordability. On public services keeping up with growth, the figures are 56% and 52%.
These worries cross the referendum divide.
What Albertans Want Their Government to Focus On
When asked to select up to three priorities for the provincial government next year, 43% choose affordability and 38% health care.
Housing comes next at 26%, followed by the economy and jobs (25%) and pipelines (20%).
Getting a better deal within Canada is selected by 10%. Moving toward independence is selected by just 6%.
Even among Option 2 supporters, only 25% place independence in their top three. Three-quarters do not.
There are differences. Remain supporters prioritize health care more often (45% versus 24%) and housing (30% versus 14%). Option 2 supporters place greater emphasis on pipelines (30% versus 17%) and managing population growth (28% versus 8%).
But both groups put affordability near the top.
The Government Gets Its Poorest Marks Where Expectations Are Highest
Albertans were also asked to assess the provincial government’s performance on nine issues. On every one of them, more rate its performance as poor than good.
On the cost of living, 77% say poor and just 17% good. On housing, the split is 70% poor to 20% good. On health care, it is 64% poor to 29% good.
Even current UCP supporters are critical. Sixty-two percent rate the government poorly on the cost of living and 53% on housing. On health care, 48% say poor compared with 43% good.
The problem is not simply weak grades. It is that the weakest grades are on the issues Albertans most want addressed.
The Upshot
Alberta’s referendum has consumed a great deal of political attention without changing what Albertans fundamentally want from their government.
There is broad agreement about which potential economic opportunities could be most valuable for Alberta. Pipelines, LNG and more diversified trade relationships are viewed as important across the referendum divide. AI data centres, less so.
There is also broad agreement about what needs fixing.
Almost nine in ten worry about affordability, more than eight in ten about strained public services – and these concerns cut across both camps.
When Albertans are asked to prioritize, the referendum question falls well down the list.
Just six percent place independence among their top three priorities. Even among those voting to begin the separation process, only one in four rate this issue that high.
As we’ve written last week, that does not mean the frustrations underlying the referendum will disappear. But it does suggest the province’s immediate governing agenda is quite different from its constitutional argument.
The political challenge for Premier Danielle Smith is clear.
Her government is rated poorly on all nine issues tested, including affordability, housing and health care. Even UCP supporters are more likely to give their preferred party poor marks when it comes to addressing these three critical issues.
If there is an opening for the UCP after the separation vote – and ahead of the next provincial election – it is to return to the issues Albertans share concerns about rather than focusing on the question that has divided them.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,021 eligible Alberta voters from October 7 to 13, 2026.
A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey through a set of partner panels. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to help manage potential skews that can arise from relying on a single source.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Alberta’s population.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is approximately plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Totals may not add to 100 because of rounding.
The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
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About Abacus Data
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
With offices in Halifax, Ottawa, Toronto, and now in Winnipeg following our acquisition of Probe Research, we can serve clients across the country.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
The post In Alberta, 87% Worry About the Cost of Living, With Very Few (6%) Prioritizing Independence appeared first on Abacus Data.
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