Brent crude vaulted back above $100 a barrel this week after CNBC reported that US Central Command destroyed five Iranian crude oil tankers Tuesday in retaliation for attempted attacks on an American warship, the latest escalation in a Middle East conflict that has already scrambled global supply. This is a supply-shock story, and the distinction matters because it changes which energy names actually benefit. Below are five US-listed stocks in the line of fire, ranked by the directness of their exposure, with a clear read on the mechanism for each, according to CNBC.

1. ConocoPhillips (COP)

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is the purest upstream leverage on this list. Q2 2026 revenue jumped to $19.16 billion, up 37.1% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $3.24 beat the $2.96 consensus as Brent averaged $104.52 versus $67.82 a year earlier. Net income roughly doubled to $3.93 billion.

Analysts appear to have taken the hint. The 2026 full-year EPS estimate has moved to $10.4435, with 14 upward revisions against 2 downward in the trailing 30 days. Shares are up 49.35% year to date to $136.85. CEO Ryan Lance is not chasing the price signal with capex, telling investors ConocoPhillips remains “firmly on track to deliver our $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029” and that free-cash-flow breakevens should fall from the mid-40s WTI today to the low 30s by 2029. New Kirkuk and Syria positions add growth optionality and geopolitical risk in equal measure.

2. Exxon Mobil (XOM)

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) is the largest single beneficiary in absolute dollar terms, with a $675.3 billion market cap and upstream production of 4.6 million oil-equivalent bpd. Q2 delivered “industry-leading earnings of $14.5 billion” and $23.6 billion in cash flow from operations, even as CEO Darren Woods disclosed “the temporary loss of approximately 10% of our upstream production” tied to Middle East disruption.

The setup for Q3 gets more interesting with this news. Guyana is producing approximately 900,000 gross bpd, and CFO Neil Hansen said Exxon has now “fully recovered the $55 billion of investment”, an inflection that shifts more revenue into free cash flow. Golden Pass LNG shipped its first cargo in April 2026, and the Permian hit more than 1.8 million oil equivalent barrels per day. Shares are up 40.04% year to date to $165.23, essentially at the analyst target of $170.91.

3. Chevron (CVX)

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is the double-barreled play: upstream torque plus a refining segment already firing. Q2 revenue reached $67.20 billion, up 51.4% year over year, with net income of $12.07 billion and downstream earnings rocketing to $4.87 billion from $737 million a year earlier. Worldwide production hit 4,070 MBOED, up 20% on the Hess deal.

CEO Mike Wirth flagged “Products are tighter than crude around the world, and that’s why cracks have widened out” and expects “some upward pressure on product pricing here into the third quarter and perhaps beyond that.” Chevron reduced debt by $8.41 billion in Q2 alone and hit its $3 billion structural cost savings target six months ahead of schedule. Shares trade at $213.95, up 44.28% year to date, with 2026 EPS estimates lifted to $16.0382 on 19 upward revisions in 30 days.

4. Valero Energy (VLO)

Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) is the double-edged case out of this group. Refining margin per barrel of throughput nearly doubled to $23.62 versus $12.35 a year earlier, US Gulf Coast ULS diesel margin surged to $43.52/bbl from $14.79, and adjusted EPS of $12.54 beat estimates by 23.84%. Renewable Diesel swung to $717 million operating income from a $79 million loss. Shares have exploded 141.89% year to date to $387.93.

Here’s the catch: sustained $100+ crude eventually compresses gasoline demand and squeezes downstream. COO Gary Simmons cited approximately 5 million bpd of global refining capacity offline and 1.7 to 1.9 million bpd of Russian capacity down, supporting a bullish mid-cycle margin view. That thesis works until it does not. Valero already has California regulatory overhang and shut refining ops at Benicia.

5. Schlumberger (SLB)

Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) is the paradox on this list. Higher crude typically pulls customer capex, but SLB’s most profitable region is the exact geography being disrupted. Middle East & Asia revenue fell to $2.57 billion, down 14% year over year, with force majeure in Qatar, shut-ins in Iraq and security demobilizations. Net income slid 22.5%.

CEO Olivier Le Peuch is framing this as a delayed setup. He said “The market is starting to exhibit the characteristics of an upcycle” and cited third-party data pointing to FIDs for long-cycle projects rising approximately 30% year-on-year in 2026. Shares are up 47.96% year to date to $55.89 but slipped 3.85% over the past week as tanker headlines rekindled Middle East risk. Analyst target sits at $62.24.

Caveat Investors Should Not Ignore

A geopolitical risk premium can unwind as fast as it was priced in. WTI was at $91.48 on September 1 after touching $114.58 on April 7, and the one-year band has run from $55.44 to $114.58. Buying an energy name on this move means buying part of that geopolitical premium rather than a durable shift in the underlying supply picture. Upstream-heavy names get the cleanest earnings lift; a refiner rides crack spreads until demand cracks; and the services giant needs the shooting to stop before its highest-margin region can rebuild.

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Five diesel pumps in California have run out of digits. The dispensers are showing $9.999 a gallon, the highest figure their hardware can display, according to a September 10, 2026 post from GasBuddy head of petroleum analysis Patrick De Haan, who cited the fuel-price app’s real-time crowdsourced data. As of this writing, no other outlet has independently corroborated the count or identified the stations, and GasBuddy’s real-time feed is the sole source. We are not naming stations, cities, or brands because that information is not in the sourcing, and we are not alleging any retailer chose the number on the display.

A Hardware Ceiling on the Display

The $9.999 figure is almost certainly a physical limit rather than a posted rate. The precedent is well known. During the 2008 oil spike, older mechanical pumps installed decades earlier could not show a price above $3.99 a gallon because their displays had a fixed number of digits. Retrofitting or replacing those units cost an estimated $10,000 to $15,000 per pump, a bill many small operators could not absorb. A ceiling at $9.999 today is the same category of constraint with one additional digit of headroom.

Record Prices Behind the Maxed-Out Pumps

Those five displays are the extreme edge of a genuine record. The U.S. Energy Information Administration put California’s average diesel price at $7.76 a gallon as of September 9, 55 cents higher than a week earlier and $2.81 higher than a year earlier. AAA’s figure for the same date was $7.87.

Nationally, diesel just set a fresh all-time high. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an average U.S. retail diesel price of $5.97, up 3.7 cents on the week and $1.97 higher than a year earlier, surpassing the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s previous record of $5.81 set in June 2022. AAA showed a record $5.94 on the same date.

A California Pattern in 2026

The state has produced outlier prints all year. In March 2026, a Chevron (NYSE:CVX) station in the remote desert stop of Fenner was reported charging $9.69 a gallon for regular gasoline. In early May 2026, a Downtown Los Angeles Chevron was reported at $8.29 for regular and $8.89 for diesel, with drivers describing fill-ups of $100 to $110. Those were separate earlier incidents at different stations preceding today’s report.

Regulators Are Already Watching

California’s Division of Petroleum Market Oversight, led by director Tai Milder, issued an enforcement bulletin and consumer advisory on March 19, 2026 and opened an investigation into outlier pricing in the Los Angeles and San Bernardino areas. The agency subpoenaed data from the state’s five major refiners under Senate Bill X1-2, the price-gouging law enacted in a 2023 special session. The probe is active and unresolved. No allegations have been proven.

Why Diesel, Why Now

The pressure is coming from several directions at once. The U.S. Department of Energy has said U.S. refineries are running at about 98% of capacity. Heavy Duty Trucking reports that since the U.S. attacked Iran in February, Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz has scrambled regional oil logistics. Heavy Duty Trucking also cites Ukrainian drone strikes cutting Russian refinery output and falling Chinese refiner output. Crude sits in the upper end of its recent band, with Heavy Duty Trucking placing prices between $90 and $100 per barrel.

Where the Cost Actually Lands

Diesel moves freight, tractors, and food. A record at the rack shows up in grocery aisles, restaurant menus, and the price of anything trucked across the country. Households already feel it: the national average for regular gasoline reached $4.157 a gallon the week of September 7, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index stood at 55.2 in July, still below the 60 threshold the survey associates with recessionary conditions. The maxed-out pumps GasBuddy is describing are the visible edge of a real crisis in the state with the country’s highest fuel prices, and the regulator with subpoena power is already inside the market.

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ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) stock is climbing Wednesday afternoon, extending a strong year for U.S. oil majors. ExxonMobil shares are up 3% in the current session to $164.83, carrying a 40% year-to-date gain. WTI crude oil has done much of the heavy lifting, and today it’s up 3.29% over the past 24 hours to $96.09 per barrel.

The question posed in the title is whether that momentum carries ExxonMobil stock to $200. That path exists, but it runs through crude prices rather than anything ExxonMobil directly controls.

Oil Prices and Refining Margins Do the Heavy Lifting

The rise of the WTI crude oil price reflects Middle East supply disruptions and tight product markets, and has a direct impact on energy majors’ financials. BP (NYSE:BP) reported a Q2 refining indicator margin of $29.6 per barrel versus $11.9 a year ago, a spread that flowed into downstream results across the group.

ExxonMobil’s Q2 2026 results delivered $14.5 billion in earnings, more than $17 billion of free cash flow, and a more than $7 billion reduction in net debt. Guyana production ran at roughly 900,000 barrels per day, and Permian output hit a record 1.8 million oil-equivalent barrels per day. The company’s cumulative structural cost savings reached $16.3 billion since 2019, part of a $20 billion target by 2030.

Sector Rally Left the Biggest Major Behind

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) stock has gained 44% year to date, outpacing ExxonMobil. Meanwhile, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLE) has advanced 48% year to date to $65.39. ExxonMobil is the XLE ETF’s largest position at 22.7% of net assets, so the rest of the energy complex has run harder than the biggest U.S. major.

The European ADRs land lower on the leaderboard. Shell (NYSE:SHEL) stock has climbed 33% year to date. Additionally, BP stock has risen 35% year to date, leaving ExxonMobil ahead of both and confirming that the ranking depends entirely on the comparison chosen.

XOM Stock’s Path to $200

Getting ExxonMobil stock to $200 likely requires WTI crude oil to hold near its current levels and refining spreads to stay wide. With the oil price already up in recent sessions, the fade risk shouldn’t be overlooked.

ExxonMobil’s own contribution is real but incremental. Guyana is transitioning from investment recovery to free cash flow, with management guiding to twice the 2025 level by 2030. A 2026 buyback plan of $20 billion, with $4.9 billion already completed in Q1, provides a per-share tailwind even if crude softens.

What to Watch

The next WTI crude oil price move and any change in Middle East shipping conditions could matter just as much as the next ExxonMobil filing. Investors may want to keep an eye on whether the oil price holds above the mid-$90s into the fourth quarter, with refining cracks likely to stay wide as European capacity remains constrained.

The $200 level implied by the title is achievable, but it depends on macro conditions rather than company execution. Position sizing in ExxonMobil stock should reflect that this is a commodity-price story wrapped around a well-run operator, and their exposure should scale accordingly.

The post ExxonMobil Is Up 40% in 2026: Can Rising Oil Prices and Strong Earnings Boost XOM Stock to $200? appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Chevron has ripped higher through 2026, and the rally has pushed shares within reach of a fresh record. The question I want to answer is whether the 24/7 Wall St. price target still sees room to run, or whether the market has already priced in the good news.

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) trades at $212.26, up 42.82% year to date and 36% over the past year. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Chevron is $204.67, implying downside of 3.81% over the next twelve months. Our recommendation is hold, with high model confidence of 90%.

Why We Could Be Wrong

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target sits just below where Chevron trades today.

Bull scenarios exist: the 20-year Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) power purchase agreement covering 2.67 gigawatts at Project Kilby could unlock a new commodity-independent cash flow stream, and Brent staying elevated on Strait of Hormuz tightness could easily push earnings past current estimates. Consider the target one datapoint. A full bull case follows below.

A Rally Built on Real Numbers

Chevron is up 10.58% over the past month and 5.78% over the past week, brushing against a 52-week high of $212.79.

Q2 FY26 was the fuel: adjusted EPS of $6.06, revenue of $67.20B (+51.43% YoY), and worldwide production of 4,070 MBOED (+20% YoY), marking a seventh straight EPS beat. Chevron also cut total debt by $8.41B in the quarter. WTI has cooperated too, climbing to $91.48 on September 1 from the mid-$70s a month earlier.

Why Bulls See a Breakout Above $228

The bull case rests on four legs: Guyana, Permian efficiency, Kilby, and cash returns. Mike Wirth called Chevron’s opportunity set “the largest and highest quality opportunity set that we’ve had in years,” and the company delivered $15.4 billion in adjusted free cash flow in the quarter with net debt to CFFO of just 0.6 times.

Chevron captured 50% more Hess synergies than initially targeted and is targeting 2-3% annual production growth and 10%+ adjusted free cash flow growth through 2030.

Our bull-case one-year price is $228.19, and Wall Street’s consensus target sits at $218.29 with 20 buy or strong-buy ratings.

Risks Worth Watching Before Chasing the Rally

Chevron trades at a P/E of 34, well above peers, and the model’s bear case lands at $181.75. Brent averaging $104/BBL lifted Q2, but the EIA sees Brent below $70 per barrel in real 2025 dollars through 2030. CPC pipeline risk in Kazakhstan and Middle East volatility remain live.

A counterpoint: the elevated trailing P/E reflects prior-year charges rather than structural weakness, and Chevron already hit its $3B structural cost reduction run-rate six months ahead of schedule.

How Chevron Compares to Exxon and ConocoPhillips

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) is the natural integrated benchmark and trades at a P/E of 23 with a return on equity of 11.03%, versus Chevron’s ROE of 7.26%. Exxon’s $20 billion 2026 buyback and Guyana leadership justify a premium, and its cheaper multiple makes Chevron’s valuation look stretched.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is the pure-play upstream counterpoint. COP delivered Q2 26 adjusted EPS of $3.24 on $19.16 billion in revenue (+37.07% YoY) and is targeting 45% of cash from operations returned to shareholders in 2026. Its capital-return intensity exceeds Chevron’s, reinforcing my view that CVX’s premium is fair rather than cheap.

Chevron Price Prediction 2026-2030

My verdict is hold, with 90% confidence and a 24/7 Wall St. price target of $204.67. The key factor tipping the scale: the stock is up more than 42% YTD and now sits at 52-week highs while forward multiples price in perfect execution.

The bullish setup strengthens if Brent holds above $95 and Project Kilby reaches final investment decision this year. The setup weakens if WTI slips back toward the July low of $69.60 or if CPC disruptions escalate.

Looking further out, here is where our model projects Chevron could trade, assuming current growth trajectories hold.

These projections assume Chevron continues executing on Hess integration, Permian efficiency, and Project Kilby. Significant upside could come from sustained Brent above $100, while a demand slowdown could push shares toward the bear case of $184 by 2030.

The post Chevron Stock Is Near a Record High. Here’s Why the Rally May Not Be Over appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Replacing a $95,000 salary with dividends is a capital problem before it is an investment problem. At a blended portfolio yield near 4%, you need about $2.4 million. At 5%, roughly $1.9 million. At 6%, closer to $1.6 million. The lineup below, built around VYM at 30%, CVX at 30%, and UTG at 40%, is designed to sit somewhere in that middle band while paying you monthly and quarterly in real cash.

Three-Holding Income Lineup: VYM, CVX, UTG

The conservative anchor is Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (NYSEARCA:VYM), a broad basket of large-cap dividend payers whose top exposures include Broadcom, JPMorgan Chase, Exxon Mobil, Johnson & Johnson, and AbbVie. VYM pays quarterly, with an annualized forward dividend of $3.92 per share against a recent price near $164. Typical distribution yield sits in the low-3% range.

The dividend-growth sleeve is Chevron (NYSE:CVX). The company just paid a $1.78 quarterly dividend, up from $1.71 in 2025 and $1.63 in 2024. Trailing yield sits near 3.1%, supported by $18.10 billion of free cash flow in Q2 FY26 and a 20-year West Texas power purchase agreement with Microsoft.

The income engine is Reaves Utility Income Fund (NYSE:UTG), a closed-end fund that pays monthly. Its monthly distribution recently increased to $0.21 from $0.20, giving an annualized forward of $2.52 per share at a price near $38. That places UTG’s headline yield in the mid-to-high single digits, well above the two equity holdings.

Why a Rising Chevron Makes Your Plan More Expensive

Chevron is up 41% year-to-date and 37% over the past year, with news of a $7 billion Venezuela expansion plan pushing shares toward record highs. That is good if you already own it. It is bad if you are still buying, because yield is the dividend divided by the price. As CVX climbs, its yield compresses, which drags the blended portfolio yield lower and raises the capital you need to hit $95,000. A stock going up makes an income plan more expensive, which is counterintuitive, and it is exactly why the entry price matters as much as security selection.

UTG Is Doing the Heavy Lifting. Read the Fine Print.

The utility fund UTG is a closed-end fund, which means it trades at a market price that can drift above or below the actual value of its underlying holdings. Buying when it trades at a premium is a permanent headwind, while buying at a discount gives you a lasting advantage. Make it a point to check that before you buy.

Closed-end funds often use leverage to boost their distributions. That borrowed money lifts income when markets are strong but magnifies losses when they turn, and it makes the fund more sensitive to interest rates than an unlevered utility ETF. UTG’s distributions can also include a return of capital, which lowers your cost basis rather than paying you out of actual earnings. Pull the fund’s Section 19 notices and verify the composition.

Then there is the concentration issue. This lineup is 30% energy and 40% utilities. You are making a focused bet on regulated power, infrastructure, and integrated oil, with VYM providing the only real spread across financials, health care, and consumer staples.

Tax Layer Most Pre-Retirees Underweight

VYM and CVX distributions are generally qualified dividends, taxed at long-term capital gains rates (0%, 15%, or 20% federal, depending on bracket). UTG’s distributions vary in character: portions may be qualified, ordinary, or a return of capital. Two portfolios paying identical headline yields can leave you with very different after-tax income.

Account location changes the answer materially. In a Roth or traditional IRA, character does not matter; in a taxable brokerage, it dictates how much capital you actually need to net $95,000. Model both.

What You Are Really Signing Up For

To replace a $95,000 salary with this lineup, plan on somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.6 to $2.0 million invested, depending on where blended yield lands the day you build the position. If you want the full mix, payment calendar, and withdrawal order for turning a lump sum into monthly income, we laid the whole method out in a free guide. A few actions before you commit capital:

1. Target your spending rather than your gross salary. Payroll taxes and retirement contributions are gone in retirement, so the target income is usually lower than the paycheck.
2. Check UTG’s premium or discount to net asset value on the day you buy, and review the most recent Section 19 notice for return-of-capital content.
3. Stress-test the plan for a Chevron dividend cut and a UTG distribution reduction at the same time, and confirm the surviving income still covers essential expenses. Dividend streams can fluctuate, and inflation over a 30-year retirement will erode any fixed stream that does not grow.

The post How Much Do You Really Need Invested to Replace a $95,000 Salary With Dividends? appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) shareholders are set to collect another $1.78 per share quarterly payment on September 10, 2026, extending a streak most oil majors envy. The check is the third at the current rate, which reflects a 4% raise announced at the start of 2026, marking the 39th consecutive annual increase. With shares at $212.21 and up 42.32% year to date, the current yield sits at roughly 3.08%.

For a commodity-linked payer, the check looks easy with Brent at $104. The real question is what happens when crude rolls over. That answer is where Chevron earns its scorecard.

Dividend Scorecard: A Grade, With an Asterisk

Q2 2026 delivered adjusted EPS of $6.06 on revenue of $67.20 billion, up 51.43% year-over-year. Free cash flow hit $18.095 billion against a quarterly dividend outlay near $3.504 billion. Full-year 2025 produced $33.94 billion in operating cash flow versus $12.75 billion in dividend payout. Balance sheet: net debt to cash flow from operations of 0.6 times after more than $8 billion in debt reduction last quarter.

FY2025 EPS came in at $6.63 while the annualized forward dividend runs $7.12. On trailing earnings, that reads over 100%. On free cash flow, it clears comfortably. Grade: A minus. Elite streak, elite coverage in a good tape, but the ratio compresses fast when crude cracks.

2020 Stress Test You Should Actually Care About

When WTI collapsed to $36.97 in November 2020, Chevron generated only $10.6 billion of operating cash flow for the full year and paid out $9.7 billion in dividends. Q2 2020 operating cash flow was just $80 million against a $2.394 billion dividend. Chevron leaned on the balance sheet, protected the payment, and kept the streak alive. That is the resilience the current management team is being paid to replicate.

What Actually Changes the Math This Cycle

The Hess integration delivered $1.5 billion in synergies six months ahead of schedule, and management called Hess free cash flow “roughly double the incremental dividends”. Also, Project Kilby, a 20-year take-or-pay power purchase agreement with Microsoft covering 2.67 gigawatts, is designed to throw off “long duration contracted cash flows that are independent of commodity price cycles.”

Mike Wirth summarized the philosophy plainly: “We’ll always focus on value over growth.” For dividend investors, the read is straightforward. The payment is safer than the ratio suggests, but only because Chevron has, again and again, chosen the check over almost everything else. Streaks like this one are the whole reason we built a free Dividend Kings screen ranking the longest-running raisers by valuation today.

The post Chevron’s Dividend Looks Great at $104 Oil—What Happens When Oil Falls? appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Although Chevron (NYSE:CVX) shares have climbed to a 52-week high on the back of a $7 billion Venezuela expansion, to above $214 per share, Wall Street’s memory tends to be shorter than the deals it finances. The stock closed at $211.78, up 38.8% year to date, and traders appear to be treating its Venezuela Orinoco Belt agreement as a straightforward production add.

But Bloomberg Economics’ Chris Kennedy went on air September 2 and framed the arrangement in language that should give any long-term holder pause. Kennedy said “this was all about oil,” comparing the U.S. and Venezuela structure to the 1953 US-backed coup against Iran’s democratically elected Mohammad Mosaddegh, which reversed his nationalization of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, later BP.

The parallel is uncomfortably clean. As Kennedy described it during the Bloomberg Businessweek segment, the current arrangement involves a Pentagon equity stake in a private company granted a 100-year lease to develop nearly 17 strategic oil fields. The U.S. also receives the right to purchase 20% of the joint venture’s production at cost, below market price. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth has called it the largest financial commitment from a major oil company since Nicolás Maduro’s ouster and said the development is expected to double Chevron’s operations in the country. Marketplace’s Kimberly Adams reported that the plan targets roughly 600,000 barrels a day within five years.

What 1953 Actually Bought, and What It Cost

Operation Ajax worked, at first. The 1953 coup restored the Shah, reversed Mosaddegh’s nationalization, and gave Western majors decades of favorable Iranian crude. For 25 years the arrangement looked like a geopolitical bargain. Then 1979 arrived. The Islamic Revolution swept out the Shah, renationalized Iranian oil, and expropriated Western assets. Anti-American sentiment cemented into state policy, and the U.S. lost one of its largest imported-crude suppliers almost overnight. The lesson Wall Street has never fully absorbed is that oil concessions tied to unpopular regimes tend to expire when the regime does, not when the lease says they do.

Bloomberg’s Kennedy’s warning tracks that history closely. He argued the Venezuela structure “could rekindle nationalist and anti-American sentiment” and called a democratic transition in Caracas “a matter of when, not if.” A 100-year lease is a long time to bet against that pattern.

Why the Market Is Ignoring the Precedent

The market has plenty of reasons to focus on the immediate payoff. CVX has climbed 42.82% year to date, 36% over one year, and 165.4% over five years amid extraordinary near-term fundamentals. Chevron’s Q2 2026 report, filed July 31, 2026, showed adjusted EPS of $6.06, revenue of $67.20 billion (+51.4% YoY), and net income of $12.07 billion (+384.8% YoY).

Free cash flow hit $18.10 billion, an increase of 272%. Worldwide production reached 4.07 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, while U.S. upstream production set a record at 2.08 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Brent averaged $104 per barrel, versus $68 a year earlier, and WTI stood at $91.48 per barrel on September 1.

Chevron has also put its cash to work aggressively: $3.117 billion in buybacks in Q2 2026, a 39th consecutive annual dividend increase (the kind of multi-decade streak we screened for in our free Dividend Kings guide, here), and $8.41 billion in debt reduction inside the quarter. The Hess acquisition, closed in 2025, is producing $1.5 billion in synergies within one year of closing. Nothing in that scorecard reads like a company priced for expropriation risk. You can see the Q2 disclosure directly in the company’s SEC filing.

Valuation Gut Check Meets Political Half-Life

Here, the historical mirror becomes sharper. Chevron trades at a P/E of 28.9, a P/FCF of 25, and a free cash flow yield of 3.99%, with a market cap of $414.9 billion. Integrated majors historically trade closer to the low-teens on earnings during comparable oil-price regimes.

Investors are paying a premium multiple for a company whose largest new development sits under a lease that, if the Iran comparison holds, has a shelf life measured by the political durability of the counterparty. Chris Kennedy noted Venezuela currently averages 1.1 million barrels per day, well below its peak of 3.5 million barrels from nearly three decades ago. The upside case requires the current arrangement to last.

Markers to Watch as the 100-Year Lease Ages

Three signals will show how much weight that century-long promise can bear. First, whether Caracas ratifies the lease through any body a successor government would recognize as legitimate. Second, whether the 20%-at-cost offtake clause survives scrutiny inside Venezuela, where subsidized exports to the U.S. read very differently on Caracas television than on a Bloomberg terminal. Third, whether Chevron’s next 10-Q quantifies the Venezuela commitment as a discrete asset, which would let analysts model an impairment scenario. The Q2 filing already flags “geopolitical uncertainty in Venezuela operations” as a named risk.

Over the long term, the benchmark S&P 500 has absorbed oil-sector expropriations before and headed higher in the decades that followed, and Chevron’s record on dividends, buybacks, and structural cost reductions is genuinely elite. The open question for CVX shareholders paying a 52-week-high price is whether they are being compensated for a risk the 1953 Iran playbook says typically arrives on someone else’s schedule.

The post Bloomberg Economist: ‘This Was All About Oil’ and Compares Chevron’s Venezuela Deal to 1953 Iran Coup appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Venezuela reportedly lays claim to over 300 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, and the U.S. has set its sights on more of them.

Bloomberg News correspondent Tyler Kendall reported from Caracas this week that the headline prize of Washington’s Venezuela deal, a 100-year lease on 17 strategic oil fields holding a claimed 65 billion barrels, went to a private, non-supermajor bidder: North American Blue Energy Partners, a private company that cannot develop the fields alone and has yet to sign on producing partners. Meanwhile, Chevron (NYSE:CVX) stock just printed a fresh 52-week high at $212.79 on a separate, parallel Venezuela commitment. The two developments deserve to be evaluated separately.

What Washington Actually Signed

Kendall’s on-the-ground reporting laid out the mechanics. The US government is taking an equity stake in the private joint venture and securing the right to purchase 20% of the offtake at cost, below market, through a swap mechanism designed to help refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Bloomberg that Venezuelan production, already up 25%, with exports up 50%, could double by the end of this decade from the current 1.1 million barrels per day; that output is still far below the 3.5 million peak from nearly three decades ago.

The catch is that North American Blue Energy Partners cannot develop the 17 fields alone. It must bring in other producers, including some fields previously operated by Russian, Chinese, or smaller local companies. Constitutional questions surrounding Venezuela’s competitive-bidding requirements remain unresolved, although the State Department says the deal was fully vetted.

Chevron’s Separate Lane

Chevron is executing a distinct, older track, separate from the 65-billion-barrel lease. On the Q2 2026 call, CEO Mike Wirth described Venezuela as one of Chevron’s “special situations,” revealing, “We’re in negotiations right now to try to improve the fiscal terms and enable more investment in Venezuela.”

Management also said the company operates three Venezuelan joint ventures and has bolstered production from those agreements from 40,000 to 250,000 barrels per day, with full debt recovery expected by early 2027. Chevron’s Q1 2026 growth-initiative slate specifically listed an agreement to expand its heavy oil interest in Petroindependencia and develop the adjacent Ayacucho 8 area, alongside its long-running Petropiar operations with PDVSA.

Wirth’s framing in the Q4 2025 8-K: “We have been a part of Venezuela’s past for more than a century. We remain committed to its present.” That century of ground presence is what separates Chevron’s exposure from the newer, splashier lease.

Economist Parallel Investors Should Weigh

Not everyone is convinced. Bloomberg Economics’ Chris Kennedy compared the deal structure to the 1953 US-backed coup in Iran, warning it could rekindle nationalist and anti-American sentiment and affirming the view that “this was all about oil.” Iran’s oil was nationalized in 1979. Kennedy called a democratic transition in Venezuela “a matter of when, not if,” raising real questions about the durability of a 100-year lease under a future elected government. Wirth has emphasized contractual protections including dispute resolution and tax and royalty regime guarantees, though those provisions face a hostile-precedent problem.

What The Market Is Actually Pricing

CVX is up 39.5% year to date and 35% over one year, backed by tangible Q2 2026 numbers: adjusted EPS of 6.06, revenue of $67.2 billion up 51.43% year over year, and free cash flow of $18.1 billion. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 15 with a 3.4% dividend yield backed by 39 consecutive annual increases.

Hess synergies, Permian scale, Guyana’s Stabroek block, and a 20-year Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) power purchase agreement for 2.67 GW in West Texas are doing the heavy lifting. Venezuela is optionality on top of the core thesis. Investors pricing the 52-week high should separate the 65-billion-barrel headline from what Chevron actually holds itself.

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Dividend Aristocrats get lumped together as if they are one defensive blob of consumer staples names, but the label actually spans wildly different business models. The three companies below sit in payroll processing, supplemental insurance and integrated energy, and each has stacked annual dividend increases well past the 25-year bar the headline demands.

The CEO of Aflac (NYSE:AFL) explicitly cited “43 consecutive years of dividend increases” on the company’s Q2 2026 call, and the payment histories for the other two on this list reach back to 1999 with step-ups nearly every year since.

That is the point: Aristocrat status is a discipline that cuts across sectors.

Automatic Data Processing: Payroll’s Compounding Machine

Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) currently yields 2.42% at a share price of $281.16. The forward annualized dividend sits at $6.80 after the quarterly rate stepped up from $1.54 to $1.70 earlier this year. The dividend history file shows a clean progression of annual increases in the regular quarterly rate from $0.07625 in 1999 to $1.70 in 2026, which comfortably clears the 25-year threshold.

Coverage is the reason income investors keep buying it. FY2026 diluted EPS came in at $11.04 against a $6.64 trailing dividend, and operating cash flow was $5.44 billion against just $196.6 million of capex. The balance sheet is investment-grade quiet, return on equity runs at 72.2%, and management funds buybacks on top of the dividend. CFO Peter Hadley described capital return this way: “this deliberate return of capital to shareholders comes in addition to our longstanding commitment to growing our dividend and to the levels of investment that we are making in our business.”

The bull case: Boring in the best way. ADP is guiding FY2027 to 5% to 6% revenue growth and 9% to 11% adjusted EPS growth, with client retention already at 92.1% and Retirement Services crossing $1 billion in annual revenue for the first time. That is the profile of a compounder that funds larger dividends year after year.

The risk: valuation. At 26 times trailing earnings and 23 times forward, ADP is priced as a premium compounder, and any slip in bookings growth or margin cadence would compress the multiple faster than the dividend can grow.

Aflac: Supplemental Insurance With a 43-Year Increase Streak

Aflac trades at $117.24 and yields 2.08% on a quarterly dividend of 61 cents, with an annualized forward rate of $2.44. The recent step-up from 58 cents to 61 cents per quarter is the increase that extends the record in 2026. CEO Dan Amos was direct on the Q2 call: “We treasure our 43 consecutive years of dividend increases and remain committed to extending this record in 2026.”

Dividend safety here starts with capital. TTM diluted EPS is $9.27 against a $2.38 dividend per share, so payout coverage is roughly a quarter of earnings. Aflac Japan reported a pre-tax margin of 34.3% in the quarter, holding-company unencumbered liquidity was $3.3 billion, adjusted leverage stayed 21.8% within the 20 to 25% target, and regulatory capital was an estimated ESR of 226% in Japan and combined RBC slightly above 600%. That is a capital fortress by any insurance standard.

The bull case: Aflac converts capital strength into steady buybacks and dividend hikes. CFO Max Broden confirmed “we’ve repurchased $983 million of our own stock and paid dividends of $309 million in Q2.” Combined shareholder returns reached $1.3 billion in the second quarter and $2.6 billion for the first six months. Adjusted ROE ex-currency was 16.6%, and dental and vision inside the US group business grew 47% in the second quarter.

The risk: The yen. Aflac’s largest earnings engine reports in yen, so a stronger dollar directly compresses reported revenue and EPS, and US group disability claims have been running hotter than plan, pressuring the segment’s margin.

Chevron: Integrated Energy With the Highest Yield in the Bundle

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is the higher-yielding piece of this trio at 3.36%, with a quarterly dividend of $1.78 (annualized forward $7.12) and shares at $211.78. The payment history shows a clear climb in the quarterly rate from 65 cents in 2000 to $1.78 in 2026, with successive annual step-ups more than sufficient to clear the 25-year bar.

Coverage in the current cycle looks excellent. Q2 2026 delivered adjusted earnings of $12 billion, or $6.06 per share, with adjusted free cash flow of $15.4 billion and cash flow from operations excluding working capital of nearly $20 billion. Chevron reduced debt by more than $8 billion in the quarter, taking net debt to CFFO to 0.6x. Interest coverage on the trailing basis is 13.7x, and structural cost cuts hit $3 billion of annual run-rate savings, achieved six months early.

The bull case: Chevron has bolted contracted cash flow onto its commodity base. Project Kilby is a 20-year take-or-pay power purchase agreement with Microsoft for 2.67 gigawatts of firm behind-the-meter capacity, and management describes it as delivering “mid-teens returns and long duration contracted cash flows that are independent of commodity price cycles.” Wirth added: “Consistent with our longstanding financial priorities, we intend to reward our shareholders today tomorrow and long into the future.” Chevron has now returned more than $5 billion to shareholders for 16 consecutive quarters.

The risk: Commodity cycles. This is where CVX diverges sharply from ADP and AFL. Chevron’s cash flow rides Brent, and the EIA’s May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook shows OPEC surplus capacity and non-OPEC supply growth that can cap prices even as demand climbs. Management set 2030 targets “at flat commodity prices that are lower than today,” which acknowledges that softer oil prices would slow buybacks before slowing the dividend.

3 Streaks, 3 Different Cash Engines

The Dividend Aristocrat badge means the same thing at all three companies: management has raised the dividend every year for at least 25 years and treats that record as untouchable. What backs the checks is completely different. ADP compounds off recurring payroll fees and 92%+ client retention. Aflac funds the payout with a fortress-capital insurance book and yen-denominated earnings. Chevron underwrites the highest yield in the bundle with integrated oil cash flow, now supplemented by contracted cash flows independent of commodity price cycles.

Owning all three is how an income portfolio gets diversification inside the Aristocrat label rather than three flavors of the same defensive name (for readers who want to push the streak even further, we ranked ten companies with 50-plus years of consecutive raises by valuation in a free Dividend Kings report).

The post 3 of Wall Street’s Safest High-Yield Dividend Stocks With Over 25-Year Increase Streaks appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

CNBC’s Becky Quick reported on Wednesday, September 2, that Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is expanding its position in Venezuela through joint ventures, with the deal landing within days of the U.S.-Venezuela reserve arrangement that Washington disclosed last week.

According to Quick, “[Chevron is] saying that it is expanding its position in Venezuela with joint ventures. As part of the agreements, it will gain existing acreage where it’s established a position.” She added: “Its joint venture will invest more than $7 billion over the next five years, and it plans to double production to approximately 600,000 barrels a day.“

This investment plan targets production over a five-year horizon. Announced targets remain subject to execution risk, political developments, and the physical realities of restarting output in a country whose oil sector has been effectively closed to Western majors.

Chevron Is Moving Faster Than One Former Executive Expected

On August 28, former Chevron Africa and Latin America president Ali Moshiri argued that Venezuelan oil is a good solution for American energy security because it avoids the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Black Sea chokepoints. He advocated for public-private partnership because heavy and extra-heavy crude requires specialized technology the country lost after 15 years outside global markets.

Moshiri predicted the majors would move slowly on entry protocols while smaller and midsize firms moved faster. A more than $7 billion commitment from a supermajor within days of the reserve announcement cuts against that timeline.

On August 31, CNBC’s Brian Sullivan reported that Venezuelan national production has fallen from roughly 3.2 million barrels per day in 1997 to about 1.2 million today, said infrastructure is dilapidated, and cautioned that meaningful extraction is years away. Sullivan also flagged that majors would likely demand multi-year security guarantees before committing billions.

Chevron Is the First Major to Put Real Money Behind the Venezuela Deal

On August 28, President Trump announced a reported deal involving a 25-year lease of 65 billion barrels of proven reserves, with the U.S. controlling 55% and reportedly $100 billion-plus in U.S. energy company investment, with Chevron, Exxon and ConocoPhillips named as prospective participants. Sullivan noted the physical and legal structure was still unknown. Chevron’s announcement today is the first concrete corporate commitment towards that $100 billion number.

Venezuela is familiar territory for Chevron.

In the Q4 2025 earnings release, CEO Mike Wirth said Chevron had “been a part of Venezuela’s past for more than a century” and stood ready to help the country “build a better future while strengthening U.S. energy and regional security.”

Key Takeaways

Chevron’s $7 billion commitment gives Venezuela’s oil reopening its first major corporate backing. But doubling production will require much more than capital, with deteriorated infrastructure, security guarantees and execution risk standing between today’s announcement and 600,000 barrels per day.

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BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) Investment Institute strategist Ben Powell discussed in a Bloomberg interview on September 2 that he sees a major shift underway in Gulf spending as more of the Middle East’s oil wealth is expected to continue to be invested domestically.

Powell’s argument is that the marginal dollar of Gulf Cooperation Council surplus will increasingly stay inside the region rather than being recycled into global equities, Treasuries and trophy real estate.

A $2.1 Trillion Signal: Why More Gulf Money Is Being Invested Domestically

Ben Powell told Bloomberg, “We’re gonna see upwards of $2 trillion US dollars of strategic capex here in the GCC over the next several years. And I think the change, the marginal change, is gonna be more of the money is gonna stay here in the GCC.”

Powell’s main point is that sovereign wealth funds, including PIF, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, have already been pivoting more domestically in recent years, and the current conflict has sharpened that trend. In Powell’s view, “It’s an accelerant to, obviously, the preexisting plans for diversification. Oil and gas is still very important. That’s not gonna change. It’s a significant generator of cash, and that’s great. But at the margin, the urgency of deploying that cash into societal and economic diversification, which was already there, I think the urgency is even greater.”

Basically, if the rest of the world beefs up its energy independence, that could hurt the Gulf’s exports over the long term and increase the importance of the Middle East investing in domestic industries outside of oil and gas.

AI, Energy and Defense Are Becoming One Investment Theme

Powell’s second idea is that energy and defense will need investment alongside data centers. Powell said, “Data centers need defense. They need energy. So clearly there are distinctions, but there is an overlap. And I think it’s hard in this very complicated world to neatly parse security from the economy, from AI. They all kind of overlap.”

AI infrastructure increasingly overlaps with energy and national security. Data centers need enormous amounts of power, while the Pentagon is spending more on AI, microelectronics and advanced energy technologies. The GAO estimates data centers could account for up to 12% of U.S. electricity demand by 2028, while the Pentagon’s FY 2027 science and technology budget request is nearly 26% higher than the prior request.

Global Chokepoints Are Accelerating the Push for Self-Reliance

Powell talked about how the Strait of Hormuz and other conflicts have highlighted the importance of domestic investment: “We can rely less, sadly, on these strategic chokepoints. We can rely less on global trading partners, so we’re gonna have to do more here at home in the region. The good news is we’ve got the funding. We’ve got the talent. We’ve got the energy to do that.”

The same morning, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the G20 that the Strait of Hormuz will be “a worthless piece of water” in two years as oil moves to land pipelines, and Bloomberg’s Jon Herskovitz reported that Iran has signaled it may target energy infrastructure in neighboring countries.

Reuters this week has separately cataloged Gulf pipeline and port investment spurred by the Iran war. On August 28, former Chevron (NYSE:CVX) Latin America president Ali Moshiri argued for tying U.S. energy security to its Western Hemisphere energy supply, so the U.S. could avoid chokepoints like Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Black Sea.

Key Takeaways

Ben Powell closed by saying, “We’re gonna see more partnership between government driving societal goals and capital markets, because simply put, capital markets is where the money is. So we’re seeing a need for more funding, be that in old-fashioned infrastructure, schools, hospitals, and roads, or all the new fun stuff around AI.”

Powell’s thesis is that Gulf capital is becoming more domestic, strategic, and interconnected across AI, energy, and defense. If that shift continues, the $2.1 trillion buildout could reshape global capital flows as well.

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking at the G20 finance chiefs meeting, offered a two-year forecast in which he predicted the Strait of Hormuz would stop mattering to global oil. Meanwhile, Bloomberg’s Jon Herskovitz described how a fresh round of U.S.-Iran strikes is happening now.

Bessent Says Pipelines Will Make Hormuz “Worthless” in 2 Years

Bessent had an optimistic forecast for oil over the medium-term: “In two years, the Strait of Hormuz will be, like, a worthless piece of water, as the oil will be going on pipelines across land,” he said. He explained that the current disruption hurts other countries far more than it hurts the U.S.: “It’s not a choke point for the US, but it is a choke point for many, many other countries.”

Land pipeline capacity at the scale required to remove Hormuz from the global oil map demands construction, financing, host-country agreements, and physical security. Pipeline projects of that scale rarely are completely built on a two-year timeline, and the segment offered no detail on routes, capital sources, or throughput.

Recently, CNBC’s Brian Sullivan detailed why the announced Venezuela arrangement will likely not relieve near-term supply, citing production that has fallen from roughly 3.2 million barrels per day in 1997 to about 1.2 million with dilapidated infrastructure. Energy security proposals keep hitting the same timeline problem.

Hormuz Matters Far More to Asia Than the United States

The United States is a net exporter of crude and refined products, and its marginal barrels do not transit through Hormuz. For allied economies in Asia and parts of Europe, the Strait remains central for their oil imports. The Strait of Hormuz has more drastic consequences for oil importers, which is why global oil markets and allied economies absorb the risk even when U.S. domestic supply does not.

That framing echoes remarks from former Chevron (NYSE:CVX) Latin America president Ali Moshiri on August 28, who argued U.S. energy security depends on sources avoiding Hormuz, Red Sea, and Black Sea chokepoints, with Western Hemisphere supply from Brazil, Venezuela, and Argentina as the answer.

Iran Is Threatening Energy Infrastructure Beyond Hormuz

Against that two-year horizon, Herskovitz described events on a compressed timeline. “The US has escalated its round of strikes. The first strikes, which got it started, were at two launchers, artillery rocket launchers, which were suspected of being able to place mines in Hormuz. The latest attacks were broader,” he said.

“Iran has changed its strategy. It said that it’s looking to a longer-range battle where it can go after its neighbors in the region. If Iran sees its infrastructure attacked, it’s looking to go after infrastructure in the region of its neighbors, energy infrastructure, which could damage the economies of these regions and also really affect global oil supplies,” Herskovitz said. Attacks on neighboring energy infrastructure would move supply regardless of the Strait’s status.

Oil Is Back Near $90 as the Conflict Escalates

WTI opened at over $90 per barrel on September 2, down nearly 10% from a month earlier but well above the $55.44 low from December 16, 2025. U.S. regular gasoline sat at $4.07 per gallon on August 31, 2026. Overnight, CNBC reported Iran said two tankers hit Hormuz naval mines while it attacked regional targets in retaliation.

Key Takeaways

Bessent may ultimately be right that pipelines and alternative supply routes will reduce the world’s dependence on Hormuz. But with U.S.-Iran strikes escalating, regional energy assets under threat, and crude back around $90 per barrel, the oil market’s immediate problem remains the conflict happening today.

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Jim Cramer opened Squawk on the Street on the first trading day of September with a market backdrop he described in blunt terms. Two ships had been fired on in the Strait of Hormuz, Treasury yields were pushing higher across the curve, and diesel prices were climbing amid a supply picture already strained by Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining capacity and U.S. refiners operating near full utilization. Cramer called the combination “unholy” and said the AI trade had gone nowhere for about a year. Then he offered a single actionable idea.

“Chevron over 200 is just it’s a steal here david,” he told David Faber, framing it around a distinction worth holding onto: “We are in a situation where the prism is negative, the noise is negative, the signal is positive.” That is the analytical spine of this piece. The question for an investor is whether Chevron (NYSE:CVX) deserves a bid because refining margins are widening on a disruption, or because the underlying business generates cash regardless of where crude settles next week.

What Actually Happened at Chevron Last Quarter

Chevron’s Q2 earnings report was the strongest the company has delivered in years. Adjusted EPS came in at $6.06 on revenue of $67.20 billion, with net income up 384.82% year over year and free cash flow of $18.095 billion. Worldwide production climbed 20% year over year to 4,070 MBOED.

Downstream is where the disruption thesis intersects the fundamentals. U.S. refinery utilization hit 97%, and downstream earnings jumped to $4.87 billion from $737 million a year earlier. Chevron booked $1.4 billion in favorable timing effects and cut total debt by $8.41 billion in the quarter alone.

The Hess integration is running ahead of plan. Management reached its $3 billion structural cost reduction target six months ahead of schedule and captured $1.5 billion in Hess-related synergies, roughly 50% above the initial target. CFO Eimear Bonner said the savings are durable because they are “built into the business.”

Mike Wirth’s read on refining aligns with what Faber flagged on air. He said “Products are tighter than crude around the world, and that’s why cracks have widened out,” and expected “upward pressure on product pricing here into the third quarter and perhaps beyond that.” Full detail sits in Chevron’s 8-K filing with the SEC.

The 20-year, 2.67-gigawatt power purchase agreement with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) for a West Texas data center reframes Chevron as more than a pure crude call, because contracted power cash flows are insulated from Brent curve swings.

Where the Disruption Case Gets Uncomfortable

Cramer’s positive signal rests partly on refined-product tightness that could reverse quickly. WTI has been swinging hard: from $114.58 on April 7 to $83.90 on August 25, down 8.5% in a month. Geopolitical crack spreads unwind the moment shipping lanes clear.

September seasonality is real but overrated as a standalone reason to avoid energy. Refinery turnaround season can tighten distillate further, and EIA data show refinery utilization near 0.92-0.95 in recent months, leaving little slack.

The stock has already moved. CVX is up 42.32% year-to-date and 8.15% over the past month, closing at $211.05. Buying above $200 means paying up for a quarter that has already been rewarded.

The dividend is what makes the wait tolerable. The next payment is $1.78 on September 10, with an annualized forward of $7.12. Chevron has raised the quarterly payout every year since 2024.

Cramer’s own hedge, that “the AI trade… has not been a good one for quite some time”, is why an integrated major with a Microsoft power contract is a rotation candidate rather than a defensive parking spot.

Is CVX Stock a Buy?

Chevron trades at a market cap of around $414 billion with a P/E near 34x, richer than Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), which trades at a P/E of roughly 23x and a market cap of $676.62 billion. Exxon’s Guyana ramp and 43 consecutive years of dividend growth arguably make it the cleaner compounder.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is the higher-beta upstream play, up 48.63% YTD, targeting a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029. It offers more torque to crude and less downstream ballast.

Shell (NYSE:SHEL) missed Q2 EPS badly at $1.92 due to Qatar disruption, even as refinery utilization ran at 102%. Its LNG optionality is real; its earnings volatility is, too.

Chevron sits in the middle: less commodity-beta than Conoco, richer than Exxon, and more integrated than Shell right now. The Hess synergies, contracted Microsoft cash flows, and cost program give it a signal that outlasts any tanker headline. Cramer’s framing that the noise is negative and the signal positive holds up under scrutiny, but the entry price matters and CVX has already run hard.

The setup looks constructive, with the understanding that the near-term catalyst is disruption-driven and the long-term case rests on Hess, cost discipline, and power. Those seeking pure crude beta may find more torque in Conoco.

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Jim Cramer likes what he sees in Chevron (NYSE:CVX). The stock closed at $211.05 on September 1, a fresh 52-week high, and is up 42.32% year to date. On Tuesday morning, CEO Mike Wirth walked onto CNBC’s Squawk Box and gave shareholders a fresh reason to cheer: a headline Venezuela expansion. Cramer’s endorsement of the stock, however, sits next to a very specific question, one the same broadcast raised within minutes. Can Venezuela actually double its output on Chevron’s schedule?

What Chevron Just Told the Market

Chevron said its Venezuelan joint venture will invest more than $7 billion over the next five years, with plans to roughly double production to about 600,000 barrels a day. The joint venture will pick up existing acreage in the Cocoa Belt, where Chevron already has an operating footprint through Petroindependencia and Petropiar. Wirth framed the plan as additive rather than competitive with U.S. barrels, according to comments he made on CNBC.

On the July earnings call, Wirth had already told analysts Chevron is “actively working with the government to look at other opportunities” and that any additional spend has to “compete in our portfolio for capital.” Management also said existing Venezuelan JV output has grown from 40,000 to 250,000 barrels in recent years, and that Chevron expects its Venezuelan debt to be fully recovered by early 2027.

Why Analysts Are Flagging the Timeline

Kpler’s Amena Bakr has been public about her skepticism. In earlier commentary, she wrote that the barrels capable of moving U.S. pump prices are “5 to 15 years out.” Michelle Caruso-Cabrera of MCC Global has also flagged contract-sanctity risk on Venezuelan deals under the current political framework. Chevron’s five-year clock diverges from the independent view of a decade-plus ramp, and the gap matters for anyone paying a peak price today.

Financial Firepower Behind the Bet

The Q2 earnings report gives Chevron room to spend without stretching the balance sheet. Chevron reported adjusted EPS of $6.06 on revenue of $67.2 billion, up 51.43% year over year, per its 8-K filing. Free cash flow was $18.10 billion, and Chevron reduced debt by $8.41 billion in the quarter alone. Worldwide production hit 4,070 MBOED, up 20% year over year, with a record 2,077 MBOED from U.S. upstream and refineries running at 97% utilization.

Wirth summarized the quarter this way: “Our strong second quarter performance is a result of disciplined investment and strong execution that drove record U.S. upstream production, record crude throughput in our U.S. refineries, and exceptional reliability across key assets.” Chevron returned capital aggressively too, with $3.117 billion in Q2 buybacks and a $1.78 quarterly dividend.

Valuation Reality Check

CVX now trades at $211.73, with a trailing P/E near 34. Against a 2026 consensus EPS of $15.87, the forward multiple is roughly 13x. The 2027 EPS consensus, however, slips to $13.20, reflecting analyst caution about oil prices normalizing from spring highs. WTI ran to $105.67 on April 3 and has since settled at $87.35 as of August 21, still well above the $57.54 print on January 2 that anchored the year.

What CVX Shareholders Are Actually Paying For

Cramer is right that Chevron is flying. The Q2 execution, the balance-sheet strength, the Microsoft AI power deal, and the Iraq and Guyana pipelines all justify the run. The Venezuela leg is the one to watch. If Chevron hits 600,000 barrels a day within five years, shareholders paying a 52-week high are getting a compounding growth option on top of the base business. If Bakr’s decade timeline is closer to the truth, the market is already paying for barrels that arrive well after this cycle. The next catalysts to monitor are Q3 earnings on September 30, TCO affiliate distributions at higher Brent, and any confirmation of Venezuelan JV terms that would allow Chevron to book incremental reserves.

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Chevron CEO Mike Wirth flew to Caracas and committed real capital, then told American drivers cheaper gas is not coming from this deal. That split screen is the story.

In a CNBC interview Tuesday, Wirth said Chevron (NYSE:CVX) will spend $7 billion across three joint ventures over five years to triple Venezuelan production from roughly 300,000 barrels per day to over 600,000 barrels per day by 2031, at a cost per barrel of less than $20. Wirth framed the economics as accretive to free cash flow, made viable by renegotiated fiscal terms, royalties, legal framework, and dispute resolution provisions.

What Wirth Told Drivers

Asked whether Venezuelan crude would bring down U.S. gasoline prices, Wirth called it “a long term add to supply globally” and said a new refinery would take “5 to 7 years” to build. He pointed to the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine as drivers of tight product markets, noting the only faster fix is routing more product to existing refineries.

The national average price of regular gas sat at $4.071 per gallon on August 31, 2026, above the $4.00 “painful for budgets” threshold. That is up from $2.779 on January 12, with a 2026 peak of $4.50 on May 11. On the Q2 call, Wirth said diesel is the tightest spot, warning of “upward pressure on product pricing here into the third quarter and perhaps beyond that.”

Pump Versus Portfolio

The same tightness squeezing drivers is a tailwind for the stock. CVX traded at $211.66 Wednesday morning, up 42.32% year to date and 5.58% in the past week. Q2 delivered adjusted EPS of $6.06, revenue of $67.20 billion, and downstream earnings of $4.87 billion versus $737 million a year ago. Debt fell by more than $8 billion in the quarter.

Long Game Wirth Is Playing

On the Q2 call, Wirth previewed the Venezuela pivot: “We are going to work it to create value, not for a year or two, not growth for a year or two, but value long, long, long into the future.” He noted debt recovery from Caracas would be “fully recovered” by early 2027.

U.S. production hit a record 2.1 million barrels per day last quarter, more than 50% of global output, and Kazakhstan and the Black Sea pipeline are running at full capacity. Shareholders got the answer. Drivers got a timeline measured in years.

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A $5,700 monthly paycheck works out to $68,400 a year, roughly what a comfortable retirement runs for a debt-free 64-year-old in most of the country. The goal here is to hit that number using five individual dividend stocks, one per sector, all paying qualified dividends. No covered call ETFs, no BDCs, no monthly-pay closed-end funds.

The five-stock blueprint is straightforward: Verizon (NYSE:VZ) for telecom, Chevron (NYSE:CVX) for energy, AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) for pharma, Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM) for tobacco and smoke-free, and Southern Company (NYSE:SO) for regulated utilities. Equal 20% weights across the five.

Where the Yields Actually Sit Today

At current prices, the forward yields shake out like this. The telecom name pays about 5.6% on a $2.83 annualized payout. The energy major yields roughly 3.4% on $7.12. The pharmaceutical company sits near 2.7% of $6.92. The tobacco giant comes in around 3.1% on $5.88. And the utility pays about 3.5% on $3.04. If you weight them equally, the basket lands at a blended yield near 3.7%. To generate $68,400 of income at that average, you need roughly $1.87 million in capital, split $374,000 across each of the five positions.

That is a meaningful sum, no question. But it is still less than what a Treasury-only strategy would require at the current 4.75% yield on the 10-year, once you factor in what these companies do that Treasuries do not. They raise the payout over time.

Three Ways to Size the Portfolio

The core math is $68,400 divided by yield. Three tiers illustrate the tradeoff:

1. Conservative tier (3% to 4%): Run the math at 3.5%, and $68,400 a year requires $1,954,000 in capital. That is where the five-stock basket lands if you lean heavier into the energy major, the pharmaceutical company, and the utility. You are putting up the most money upfront, but the principal keeps compounding over time. The drug company’s quarterly payout has climbed from $1.07 in 2019 to $1.73 in 2026, and the oil giant has gone from $1.29 in 2020 to $1.78 in 2026. That is sleep-at-night income that actually grows.
2. Moderate tier (5% to 7%): At a 5.5% yield, that same $68,400 annual target calls for $1,244,000. You get there by overweighting the telecom name and mixing in preferred shares, REITs, or high-dividend equity funds. The telecom company just marked its 20th consecutive year of dividend increases, though the latest raise was only 2.5%. Payout growth has flattened, and total return leans more on the coupon than on price appreciation.
3. Aggressive tier (8% to 14%): $68,400 divided by 0.10 equals $684,000. Leveraged covered call funds, mortgage REITs, and high-yield bond funds live here. Distributions frequently get cut, and the principal often erodes. You are spending the asset, not living off its growth.

Why the Lower Yield Often Wins

A 3.7% yield that grows 6% to 8% annually doubles your income in roughly nine to twelve years. A 10% yield with a flat or shrinking payout stays put or slides. In this basket, Chevron has raised its dividend for more than two decades, Southern’s quarterly payout has ticked up from $0.56 in 2017 to $0.76 today, and Philip Morris has moved from $1.00 per quarter in 2015 to $1.47 in 2026.

That growth is why AbbVie is up 512% over 10 years, and Chevron is up 219%, with the yield reinvested along the way. The whole point of a ladder like this is never having to sell a share to pay a bill, and we walked through how to build one in a free guide here.

The catch: concentration. Five stocks in five sectors are diversified relative to owning one, but a Humira-style patent cliff, an oil-price collapse, or an FDA action on nicotine pouches can each hit 20% of the income stream at once. AbbVie’s $10.9 billion Apogee acquisition and 14-cent EPS dilution illustrate the reinvestment risk baked into the pharma slot.

Three Steps to Take This Week

1. Price out your real number. Pull last year’s actual spending, not your pre-retirement salary. If you can live on $54,000, your capital target drops by roughly $400,000 at a 3.7% blended yield.
2. Stress-test the growth assumption. Model each holding at half its recent five-year dividend growth rate. If the math still works, the plan is durable. If it does not, add a sixth or seventh position rather than reach for yield.
3. Run the tax layer. All five names pay qualified dividends, taxed at 0%, 15%, or 20% federally depending on the bracket. In a state like California or New York, layer state tax on top before deciding how much of the portfolio belongs in a taxable account versus an IRA.

The post No ETFs Required: How a 64-Year-Old Built a $5,700 Monthly Paycheck From Five Dividend Stocks appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

President Trump took a historic victory lap Saturday, announcing 100-year concessions on 17 Venezuelan oil fields covering roughly 65 billion barrels of proven reserves.

Sixty-five. Billion. Barrels.

For perspective, the entire United States had about 46 billion barrels of proven reserves at the end of 2024. Washington now claims access to more petroleum in South America than exists beneath all 50 states combined.

So, cheap gas for everybody?

America’s Gulf Coast refiners would like a word.

Because while 65 billion barrels makes for one heck of a victory lap, the people responsible for turning crude oil into something you can actually pump into a Ford F-150 have a considerably less exciting story to tell.

For drivers and energy investors, the important number isn’t how much oil exists underground. It’s how much can be extracted, transported, refined, and eventually pumped into a vehicle.

Preferably sometime before your grandchildren retire.

And on that score, Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel bonanza runs directly into industrial reality.

Under the reported framework, the fields go to a joint venture between Washington and North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), Venezuela’s second-largest private producer, run by Alejandro Betancourt Lopez. The Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital takes a 35% equity stake in NABEP’s corporate parent.

The U.S. receives a guaranteed 20% of production at cost and right of first refusal on the remaining 80%. NABEP plans up to $100 billion in new infrastructure and $200 billion in royalties and taxes over 25 years.

Those are gigantic numbers.

Unfortunately, none of them are gallons of gasoline.

Venezuela Has an Ocean of Oil. It Just Doesn’t Produce Much of It.

Here is the inconvenient thing about oil reserves:

Reserves are oil in the ground. Production is oil coming out of a pipe.

Venezuela is spectacular at the first one.

It is currently terrible at the second.

Despite sitting on the world’s largest petroleum reserves, Venezuela produces only about 1% of global oil output after two decades of state mismanagement, decaying infrastructure, and U.S. sanctions dating to 2005.

Signing a historic agreement does not cause 65 billion barrels of crude to obediently march toward the nearest tanker.

Somebody has to get it out.

And that’s going to take a while.

Rystad Energy estimates full production from existing fields may not arrive until the mid-2030s. The Council on Foreign Relations estimates repairing and modernizing Venezuela’s crippled infrastructure could cost $10 billion to $20 billion.

Developing new fields could take more than a decade and require at least $100 billion in fresh capital.

And after spending all that money and waiting all those years, you encounter another minor inconvenience:

Now you have to refine the stuff.

The Gulf Coast Refining Wall

Not all oil is created equal.

Venezuelan crude is extra-heavy and loaded with sulfur. You don’t simply pour it into any refinery and wait for gasoline to come out the other end.

It requires specialized, high-complexity coking refineries.

Fortunately, the U.S. Gulf Coast has some of the best facilities in the world for processing exactly this kind of crude.

Unfortunately, they’re already busy.

Valero Energy (NYSE), the premier processor of heavy crude, told analysts on July 30 that “we’ve been the largest U.S. consumer of Venezuelan crude over the last several years” and expects processing rates to exceed its historical maximum.

That’s not exactly an industry saying:

PLEASE SEND US 65 BILLION MORE BARRELS.

Valero management also flagged roughly 5 million barrels per day of global refining capacity offline and light-product inventories about 130 million barrels below normal seasonal levels.

So imagine Venezuela somehow manages to dramatically increase production tomorrow.

Wonderful.

Where does all that extra heavy crude go?

Finding 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil does not magically build more Gulf Coast distillation towers or coking units.

You can have all the oil in the world underground.

If you can’t process it fast enough, your gas tank remains unimpressed.

Your Gas Pump Does Not Care About Press Releases

The national average for regular gasoline stood at $4.08 per gallon as of August 24, up 2.1% from a month earlier.

WTI crude closed at $83.90 on August 25, well below its $114.58 April peak but still elevated amid the Iran conflict and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

Those are the things your gas pump cares about.

Benchmark crude prices.

Refinery capacity.

Product inventories.

Shipping routes.

Actual barrels of actual oil moving through actual infrastructure.

Oil that might emerge from Venezuela a decade from now doesn’t do much for someone filling up on Tuesday.

The market cannot pour a press release into a refinery.

And announcing another 65 billion barrels underground does not reopen a tanker route through the Strait of Hormuz.

So if you’re waiting for this deal to knock 50 cents off the gas station sign next week, you may want to bring a chair.

Possibly snacks.

Then There’s the Small Matter of Whether the Deal Survives

Let’s assume Venezuela rebuilds its infrastructure.

Let’s assume investors provide the capital.

Let’s assume production ramps.

Let’s assume Gulf Coast refiners find room for the crude.

We’re home free!

Well…

There’s still politics.

Energy lawyers have questioned the deal’s legality and called for contract transparency. Protests erupted in Caracas over the weekend. Chavismo factions have objected on sovereignty grounds, while independent U.S. producers are wary of competing against a Pentagon-backed joint venture.

Then there’s Venezuela’s rather memorable history with foreign oil companies.

Venezuela nationalized foreign oil assets in 2007, seizing billions in Western equipment.

And while this contract spans 100 years, American presidential terms famously do not.

A future administration taking office in 2029 could attempt to unwind the framework, and reports have noted that NABEP’s leadership has faced past regulatory scrutiny.

So the investment proposition looks something like this:

Spend tens of billions rebuilding Venezuela’s oil industry.

Wait perhaps a decade for major new production.

Navigate Venezuelan politics.

Navigate American politics.

Navigate legal challenges.

Find enough specialized refining capacity.

Then sell the oil.

Simple!

What This Actually Means for CVX, XOM, VLO, and XLE

For investors, the trick is separating companies that could eventually benefit from Venezuela from companies whose stocks have already moved for entirely different reasons.

Chevron (NYSE) is the essential corporate player to watch.

Chevron is the only U.S. major that remained in Venezuela through the 2007 nationalization. CEO Mike Wirth confirmed on July 31 that the company is “in negotiations right now to try to improve the fiscal terms and enable more investment in Venezuela,” with full debt recovery expected by early 2027.

Chevron shares are up 39.01% year to date.

Exxon Mobil (NYSE), up 36.41%, has no role in the Venezuelan deal and remains locked in a territorial border dispute with Caracas at the International Court of Justice.

Valero has surged a staggering 123.8%.

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA) is up 45%.

Those are enormous moves.

But don’t give Venezuela the credit.

The energy sector has repriced because of acute global shocks to crude supplies and refined-product bottlenecks.

Venezuela had nothing to do with it.

The Bottom Line

Sixty-five billion barrels makes for an unforgettable political victory lap.

It is also, for the moment, mostly a very impressive number on a piece of paper.

Gulf Coast refiners care about a much smaller and considerably less glamorous number:

How many barrels are actually leaving the Orinoco Belt and entering a U.S. refinery today?

Watch the export volumes.

Watch the infrastructure spending.

Watch the contracts and legal challenges.

And above all, watch how much Venezuelan crude Gulf Coast refineries actually process.

When those numbers start moving, this becomes a supply story.

Until then, Washington has acquired rights to an enormous ocean of oil that is continuing to perform the job Venezuelan crude has mastered over the past two decades:

Sitting quietly underground.

The post Gulf Coast Refineries Pour Cold Water on Trump’s 65-Billion-Barrel Venezuelan Victory Lap appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Energy stocks led the market higher Monday morning as two major oil catalysts hit at once. CNBC’s Dominic Chu framed the setup on the network’s opening segment on Monday: “Oil prices did jump by about 3% on the resumption of those attacks, and that sent energy stocks higher.”

He added that “Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Halliburton, and Occidental Petroleum all in the green this morning after getting another boost on Friday, when President Trump said the U.S. had a deal with Venezuela to control more than 65 billion barrels of its oil reserves.” The Venezuela announcement won’t impact today’s supply, but it adds a long-horizon reserves story.

The U.S. and Iran traded strikes over the weekend, the first time in more than a month, which adds a supply-risk premium to energy prices.

Iran Strikes Send Oil Prices Up 3%

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) opened higher, trading at $208.18 Tuesday morning, up 1.00% on the session and 36.13% year-to-date. On the Q2 call, CEO Mike Wirth flagged the region directly, saying “the impact from the Middle East conflict remained isolated to the partition zone representing about 1% of second quarter total production.” Chevron still delivered $12.1 billion in earnings, or $6.11 per share, and cut debt by more than $8 billion in the quarter.

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) trades at $162.91 on Tuesday, up 1.20% intraday. Exxon’s Q1 report disclosed $706 million in losses tied to Middle East supply disruptions, and CEO Darren Woods said: “Events in the Middle East tested that strength with the safety of our people remaining our top priority.”

Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) added 1.53% to $36.74, extending a 16% one-month rally. Middle East and Asia revenue was down 2% sequentially in Q2 on activity disruptions in Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar.

Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) rose 0.76% to $59.55. CEO Richard Jackson said on the Q2 call that Occidental “fully offset the disruptions of our production in the Middle East” through Permian and Gulf of America volumes.

Trump’s 65 Billion-Barrel Venezuela Deal Is a Very Different Catalyst

President Trump announced Friday that the U.S. had a deal with Venezuela to control more than 65 billion barrels of its oil reserves. Chevron is the most direct beneficiary given its three producing joint ventures with PDVSA.

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth told analysts Chevron has grown production from those three JVs “from 40,000 to 250,000” barrels per day and that “we’re in negotiations right now to try to improve the fiscal terms and enable more investment in Venezuela.” CFO Eimear Bonner said on debt recovery, “we expect that by early 2027, that will be fully recovered.”

The reserves headline is a long-horizon story: Venezuelan infrastructure has been degraded by years of sanctions and disinvestment, and heavy and extra-heavy crude requires specialized handling that takes time to rebuild. Retail investors have zeroed in on that gap. Reddit’s most-discussed Chevron thread over the weekend was titled “Trump announced a deal for 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil. How much of that is actually investable?” with sentiment scores clustering in a neutral 49 to 58 range.

Key Takeaways

Iran and Venezuela are giving energy investors two very different catalysts. Renewed Middle East fighting can move oil prices immediately, while Venezuela’s 65 billion barrels could take years to translate into meaningful production.

The post Chevron, Exxon and Other Oil Stocks Jump as Two Huge Energy Stories Collide appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

CNBC’s Brian Sullivan walked viewers through the announced U.S.-Venezuela oil arrangement Monday, delivering a simple message for investors: the headline reserve number is enormous, and the timeline to real production might not be as long as some would expect.

“Venezuela, 65 billion barrels proven reserves on the part of this deal. Venezuela obviously has more. The U.S. under this would control 55% of that,” Sullivan said, framing a reported 25-year lease structure valued at $100 billion-plus in investment by U.S. energy companies.

The announcement, covered Monday morning on CNBC, names three U.S. majors as prospective participants: Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP). Sullivan emphasized the physical and legal structure remains unsettled. “The report is that this is going to be 55% controlled by the United States, and private companies are going to be a part of that. We don’t know the exact physical structure, legal structure,” he said.

65 Billion Barrels in the Ground, but Only 1.2 Million Produced per Day

Venezuela holds more than 300 billion barrels in total proven reserves, and this agreement carves out just 65 billion. Yet the country’s ability to lift, transport, and sell that oil has eroded for decades.

“Venezuela has been in a rolling 30-year production collapse. Venezuela was one of the biggest oil producers in the world. It was the richest country in Latin America 30 years ago, not even close. 1997, they peaked out at about 3.2 million barrels per day on average of production. Right now, doing about 1.2,” Sullivan said. EIA’s most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook shows Venezuelan output in a similar range, with recent quarterly figures near 1.0 million barrels per day.

Sullivan had a blunt message on the feasibility of getting usage from the oil: “This oil is going to sit under the ground if there’s no capital and expertise to pull it out.“ On timing: “If this deal does happen, if this progresses, you’re talking years before we extract any significant volume of oil from Venezuela. Everything is dilapidated.”

The U.S. Could Control 55% Under a 25-Year Deal

Under the announced structure, U.S. entities would control 55% of the 65 billion-barrel carveout under a 25-year lease. Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, said Venezuelans would receive around $200 billion in sales tax revenue.

Sullivan raised broader questions about who controls the Venezuelan counterparty and legal complications that could weigh on implementation. Any operator would demand multi-year security and legal guarantees before committing capital, and why such guarantees can be fragile across leadership changes.

Former Chevron Executive Warned About This Exact Problem

Sullivan’s reporting arrives three days after CNBC’s August 28 interview with Ali Moshiri, CEO of Amos Global Energy and former President of Chevron Africa and Latin America. Moshiri backed the strategic logic, arguing Venezuelan barrels bypass the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, and Black Sea choke points.

He advocated a public-private partnership because Venezuela’s heavy and extra-heavy crude requires specialized technology the country has lost after roughly 15 years outside global markets. He thinks: “the idea is great, the challenge is going to be implementation,” with majors likely to move slowly on entry protocols while smaller firms move faster.

What the Venezuela Deal Means for Chevron, Exxon and ConocoPhillips

The 65 billion-barrel headline makes the Venezuela deal look transformative, but with production still around 1.2 million barrels per day and infrastructure badly degraded, those reserves could take years and enormous amounts of capital to reach global markets. For Chevron, Exxon, and ConocoPhillips investors, the story now shifts to whether the deal can be implemented and when.

The post Energy Expert Warns Venezuela’s 65 Billion-Barrel Oil Deal Won’t Fix Supply Anytime Soon appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Oil markets have spent the past six months learning to live with an uncomfortable reality: The U.S.-Iran conflict can flare up quickly without necessarily becoming a full-scale war. That distinction matters because the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints, and even the threat of disruption can add a premium to crude prices. 

This morning, that premium returned. Brent crude jumped 3.5% to $91.30 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate climbed 3.7% to $86.49 after the U.S. and Iran once again exchanged strikes.

Another Round Around The Strait

The latest escalation began when U.S. forces struck two Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Central Command said the launchers were being prepared to fire rockets carrying sea mines into the waterway. Iran then retaliated with ballistic missiles and drones targeting two U.S. military installations in Jordan. Jordanian forces said eight missiles were intercepted.

The timing is important. Just last week, the White House said U.S. forces had cleared mines from the Strait and warned that any ship or boat attempting to lay new ones would be “immediately and systematically destroyed.” Iran, meanwhile, has warned it would “forcefully respond” to further attacks.

That leaves investors watching the same question they have faced repeatedly since the war began: Is this another tit-for-tat exchange, or the start of something larger?

The Conflict Still Has No Exit

Unfortunately, there is little evidence of a diplomatic off-ramp as there were no talks between Washington and Tehran aimed at ending the six-month conflict. The June agreement that established a 60-day framework for negotiations has expired.

Instead, Washington has shifted toward economic pressure. Last week, the U.S. Treasury launched “Operation Economic Outcast,” which Secretary Scott Bessent described as an economic campaign designed to sever Iran’s financial lifelines. Trump has called the effort an “Economic D-Day.”

The problem for oil investors is that economic pressure does not eliminate Iran’s ability to threaten the Strait. Traffic through the waterway had fallen to roughly five ships per day over the weekend, while the U.S. said it was continuing efforts to keep Gulf oil moving.

Big Oil Is Treating This Differently

Brent and WTI are back above $90 and $86, respectively, but both benchmarks fell more than 4% last week. That suggests markets are treating this morning’s strikes as another escalation — not yet a fundamental change in the war’s trajectory.

Big oil stocks are reflecting that cautious optimism. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) is rising about 2% in premarket trading, while Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is up 2.2%.Both BP (NYSE:BP) and Shell (NYSE:SHEL) were, respectively, 1.7% and 1.3% higher

Exxon generated $14.5 billion of second-quarter earnings, $23.6 billion of operating cash flow and $17.2 billion of free cash flow. Yet its 30.2% gain this year trails the 40.2% advance of the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE).

Chevron has an additional catalyst. Its second-quarter earnings reached $12.1 billion, while production increased 20% year-over-year. The company is also positioned to benefit from the emerging U.S.-Venezuela oil agreement because it remains the only major U.S. oil company with a significant Venezuelan presence.

Key Takeaway

In short, investors should respect the risk without assuming the new strikes automatically signal a wider war.

The market has seen this movie repeatedly over six months. Unless Iran successfully closes the Strait or attacks produce sustained damage to Gulf oil infrastructure, crude’s latest jump looks more like another geopolitical risk premium than the beginning of a new oil shock.

That said, the absence of negotiations raises the stakes. For energy investors, Chevron looks particularly interesting because it combines direct exposure to higher oil prices with a potential long-term Venezuelan growth opportunity. Exxon offers stronger cash generation but has lagged the broader energy sector.

The smart move is to watch the physical oil flows through Hormuz, not just the headlines. If ships keep moving, today’s oil spike may prove temporary. If they stop, $90 crude could look cheap surprisingly quickly.

The post Oil Prices Jump Above $90 As U.S. and Iran Trade Strikes. Is $100 Next? appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Shares of Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) are climbing in Monday morning trading after the United States and Iran resumed military strikes over the weekend, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz still constrained. Chevron stock is up 3% to $207.80; Exxon Mobil stock is rising 3% to $161.31.

The energy complex is repricing supply risk in real time. WTI crude oil is at $86.06 per barrel, up 3% over the past 24 hours, while Brent has topped $90. Crude trades nearly around the clock, so that 24-hour figure captures weekend headlines across venues open beyond U.S. equity hours.

Energy is the standout group this morning. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLE) is up 2% to $64.18. Broad benchmarks are moving the other way, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) down 0.4% to $766.13, while Exxon Mobil and Chevron together sit at the top of the XLE weighting, so the fund is tracking crude prices almost tick for tick today.

Hormuz Risk Repricing Fuels the Bid

The driver here is geopolitical. Both Chevron and Exxon Mobil have stayed quiet on the newswires today, leaving the weekend escalation between Washington and Tehran as the sole catalyst. Traders are pricing supply optionality across the crude curve as headline sentiment shifts.

Hormuz matters for the pair because a large share of seaborne crude and LNG passes through the strait. A supply-risk premium builds quickly when tanker transit is uncertain, and it fades just as quickly once flows resume. That two-way sensitivity marks today’s move as a repricing of headline risk, with limited implications for the majors’ long-term earnings power.

WTI crude oil’s recent path adds context to today’s bid in Chevron and Exxon Mobil. The daily FRED spot series had crude near $83.90 on August 25, after touching $89.75 on August 20, so today’s bounce retraces part of last week’s slide before the weekend headlines hit. That level sits above the $60 to $80 range the EIA classifies as moderate, and beneath the year’s high of $114.58 on April 7.

Commentary from both CEOs foreshadowed this backdrop. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth cited “geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility” on the company’s most recent call. Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods struck a similar note, saying “Events in the Middle East tested that strength… those events also underscored the importance of reliable, affordable energy products.”

One Move, Two Different Businesses

Chevron and Exxon Mobil are both up roughly 3%, and that’s an observation worth flagging. The market is treating the pair as a single crude-beta position, glossing over how differently their segments respond to a crude spike.

Both are integrated majors, each spanning upstream production, where a higher crude price lifts realizations on every barrel produced, and downstream refining and chemicals, where crude functions as an input cost. A jump in oil therefore lands unevenly across an integrated major’s segments. Pure exploration and production companies feel that lift more uniformly across revenue and margin lines.

Scale reinforces the herd trade in Chevron and Exxon Mobil. Chevron’s Hess integration has broadened its reserve base, while Exxon Mobil’s Guyana ramp and Permian footprint anchor its upstream mix. Both names also carry sizable refining capacity, which cushions the earnings mix when crude runs and can absorb some of the upside if the risk premium sticks.

Both stocks have run hard heading into today, with Chevron stock up 36% year to date (YTD) through Friday’s close. Exxon Mobil stock was up 33% year to date through that same tag. That momentum leaves less valuation cushion in Chevron and Exxon Mobil if the geopolitical premium unwinds and crude retraces toward the summer trend.

What to Watch

The next share-price move in Chevron and Exxon Mobil depends on Hormuz traffic and OPEC’s posture. Investors can watch for whether tanker transit normalizes and for whether the cartel signals any production response as WTI crude oil holds above $85. Peer strength across the energy patch, including refiners and services names inside the XLE ETF, will provide a read on how broadly the risk premium is being priced across the value chain.

Position sizing deserves emphasis for investors of Chevron and Exxon Mobil today. A geopolitical risk premium is among the most reversible moves in energy, and it can unwind as quickly as it appeared if the conflict de-escalates or Hormuz transit normalizes. Traders sizing their exposure here can stage entries and avoid chasing the current level, since headline risk cuts in both directions and today’s bid in these two names could reverse on a single wire story.

The post Chevron and Exxon Mobil Rise 3% as U.S. Strikes on Iran Push WTI Crude Oil to $86 appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Ali Moshiri, CEO of Amos Global Energy and former President of Chevron Africa and Latin America, recently appeared on CNBC to weigh in on what an ownership stake in Venezuelan oil fields could mean for the U.S. He believes that one of the biggest advantages of the deal will be that Venezuelan oil can reach U.S. refiners without passing through shipping corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz.

“I think it comes down to energy security for the United States. If you consider that Venezuela has the largest resource and it doesn’t have the choke point that we have seen in the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea, and Black Sea,” he said. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, and unlike Gulf barrels, they reach U.S. refiners without transiting maritime corridors that can be impacted by conflict in the Middle East.

“The Ideas Is Great.” Producing the Oil Is the Hard Part

The challenge with Venezuelan oil is the operational complexity: “The idea is great. The challenge is going to be implementation, human capacity, operational experience, and so forth, and how all of this is going to come together,” Moshiri said.

Venezuelan crude is heavy and extra-heavy, requiring specialized technology and experience. Heavy oil is less valuable and much harder to transport than lighter oil, because lighter oil can easily flow through a pipeline while heavy oil might have a viscosity closer to peanut butter. It would be very difficult to send peanut butter through a pipeline, which is what makes heavy oil more costly and difficult to transport. Heavy oil requires diluents, upgraders, coking capacity, and refineries configured for high-sulfur, high-viscosity feedstock. Reservoirs need steam or solvent techniques to move barrels to the surface.

Layered on top, Venezuela has been absent from global energy markets for the past 15 years. In Moshiri’s view, that gap erodes local operational capacity and skilled labor in ways money alone can’t quickly rebuild. “Venezuela’s oil is very complicated. It’s a heavy and extra heavy. It requires technology. It requires experience that you’ve got to come together to make that a reality. I think that’s the reason it’s very essential to be a private and public partnership,” he said.

Why Small Operators Could Move Before Big Oil

Moshiri guessed which companies might benefit from this early: “The majors, they’ve got a different protocol to entering in the country, usually takes longer than normal time frame. The smaller company, midsize company, they react much faster in the short term,” he said. Large integrated producers might move cautiously due to compliance protocols and memories of prior capital losses in Venezuela. Independents and midsize operators can commit crews and capital more quickly.

For context, Chevron (NYSE:CVX) carries a market capitalization near $393 billion, with trailing revenue of roughly $209 billion and a forward P/E of 13. Chevron’s long footprint in Venezuela was central to its Latin America business during Moshiri’s tenure and lends weight to his operating perspective.

The Western Hempisphere Is An Energy Security Play

Moshiri believes energy supply disruptions will likely happen again in the future, but Venezuela will help the U.S. achieve energy security: “I think from the energy security point of view, this is not going to be the last time this is going to happen. And we got to be ready for it. And I think we’ve got to look at the alternative for energy security. And an alternative for us is our own hemisphere. You look at Brazil, you look at Venezuela, you look at Argentina,” he said. OPEC’s current production is around 22-25 million barrels per day out of a 32 million barrel capacity, and Venezuela also holds significant critical mineral reserves alongside oil, which could help the U.S. build supply-chain sovereignty.

WTI closed at $83.40 per barrel on August 28, 2026, down 8.5% from a month earlier and off a 52-week high of $114.58 reached on April 7, 2026. At the pump, the U.S. regular gasoline average was $4.08 per gallon on August 30, 2026, above the $4.00 threshold the EIA describes as painful for household budgets.

Key Takeaways

The announced agreement puts Venezuela’s oil potential back in focus, but Moshiri’s argument turns on execution. Heavy crude, infrastructure needs, and shortages of experienced workers make production difficult to scale. Smaller operators may move first, while investors should judge progress by investment and actual output.

The post Former Chevron Executive: Venezuela’s Oil Opportunity Comes With a Major Catch appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Oil markets have spent 2026 wrestling with supply disruptions, Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdowns to multi-decade lows, and stubborn pump prices that refuse to cooperate with political calendars. 

That makes President Trump’s new energy agreement with Venezuela genuinely good news for long-term American energy security. It hands U.S. interests majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of proven Venezuelan reserves — roughly one-fifth of the OPEC nation’s world-leading 303 billion-barrel total — while unlocking private investment aimed at rebuilding a battered industry.

The U.S. currently holds about 46 billion barrels of proven crude oil and lease condensate reserves. Add the 65 billion barrels covered by the agreement, and the combined figure reaches roughly 111 billion barrels. That represents about 7.1% of the world’s 1.57 trillion barrels of proven crude reserves reported by OPEC at the end of 2025 (Venezuela is considering leaving OPEC). The total sits almost exactly in line with the United Arab Emirates’ 113 billion barrels and exceeds Kuwait’s 101.5 billion. 

In short, the arrangement expands U.S. access to a meaningful slice of global supply without adding a single new domestic well.

What the Deal Actually Delivers

The agreement, negotiated with Venezuela’s interim leadership, grants American companies long-term access to 17 strategic fields spanning the Orinoco Belt and Lake Maracaibo. Venezuelan officials project more than $100 billion in private investment and $209 billion in eventual tax revenue. Production rights are expected to flow primarily to U.S. operators, with resulting crude directed toward American markets.

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) already operates the largest U.S. footprint in the country and accounts for a substantial share of current Venezuelan output near 1.25 million barrels per day. The company is finalizing contract migrations under the new hydrocarbons framework and is positioned to expand into additional heavy-oil blocks. Service providers such as SLB (NYSE:SLB) have also secured early contracts for technology and equipment. These moves convert political headlines into tangible capital spending and potential production growth over the next several years.

Why Gas Prices Won’t Fall Overnight

Venezuela’s oil is predominantly extra-heavy crude that requires diluents, specialized refining, and major infrastructure repairs after years of underinvestment. Current output sits at roughly 1.2 million to 1.25 million barrels per day — its highest level since 2019 — yet remains a fraction of the country’s historic peaks above 3 million barrels. Even with rapid investment, meaningful incremental supply will take time to reach global markets.

U.S. Gulf Coast refiners like Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) and Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) already process a large share of Venezuelan crude and stand to benefit from more reliable volumes. That improves energy security and supports refining margins. It does not, however, create an immediate flood of light sweet crude that would pressure gasoline prices lower in the next few months. Global balances still reflect other disruptions, and the deal’s full production impact will unfold over years rather than quarters.

The Investing Angle for Smart Shareholders

For investors, the clearest near-term opportunity sits with companies that already have skin in the game and balance sheets strong enough to fund expansion. Chevron’s existing joint ventures and operational knowledge give it a first-mover edge. Its diversified global portfolio and consistent free-cash-flow generation provide a buffer while Venezuelan projects ramp. Service companies with early contracts stand to book incremental revenue as drilling and facility work accelerates.

Granted, political and legal risks remain. Infrastructure bottlenecks and the heavy nature of the crude could temper the pace of growth. That said, the combination of U.S. policy support, sanctions relief through updated Office of Foreign Assets Control licenses, and private capital creates a clearer path than the sector has seen in more than a decade. 

Investors focused on energy security and multi-year production growth now have a concrete set of assets to watch.

Key Takeaway

The Venezuela agreement strengthens America’s long-term oil position and opens a multi-billion-dollar investment runway for U.S. energy companies. It does not deliver an overnight drop at the pump. Smart investors should treat the news as a structural positive for firms already active in the country — particularly Chevron — while recognizing that the real production and cash-flow benefits will arrive gradually. 

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Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) both reported Q2 2026 results and raised dividends this year. Chevron carries a 39-year streak. PepsiCo, at 54 consecutive annual increases, is classified as a Dividend King. The pressures on each payout differ sharply for income-focused owners.

Gushing Cash at Chevron, Grinding Margins at PepsiCo

Chevron’s Q2 2026, reported July 31, 2026, delivered adjusted EPS of $6.06, revenue of $67.2 billion, and quarterly operating cash flow of $22.63 billion. Free cash flow reached $15.4 billion. CEO Mike Wirth noted the Hess assets are generating cash that has been “roughly double the incremental dividends and accretive to shareholders on a per share basis.” Debt fell by more than $8 billion in the quarter, showing the cycle working as intended.

PepsiCo’s Q2 2026, reported July 9, 2026, showed core EPS of $2.20 on revenue of $24.18 billion, with core operating margin contracting 40 basis points. CEO Ramon Laguarta described the North American consumer environment as “worse than what we had anticipated and driven mainly by gas prices.” CFO Steve Schmitt said full-year EPS “may be towards the low end” of guidance. International is outperforming while Frito-Lay volumes soften.

Cyclical Cushion Versus Structural Squeeze

Chevron’s fiscal 2025 dividend outlay exceeded reported net income; buybacks added another $12.1 billion in shareholder returns. That coverage gap reflects the cycle. Q2 2026 confirmed recovery, with net debt to CFFO at 0.6 times and debt/equity at 0.2.

PepsiCo’s problem is structural. The gap between operating cash flow and capex plus dividends is thin, net income has flattened, and shares are down 5.4% over one year and 9.8% lower over five years. Debt/equity is 2.4. The 4% yield partly rewards patience and partly signals a repricing for lower growth. (For investors who want streaks measured in half-centuries rather than years, we ranked 10 Dividend Kings by valuation in a free report here).

Triggers That Would Change the Verdict

For Chevron, watch Brent. The EIA’s May 2026 outlook pegged Brent averaging $79.39 in 2026. A sustained slide below $60 paired with continued buybacks would compress cushion fast. For PepsiCo, watch whether North American Foods volumes turn and operating cash flow reclaims its 2023 level of $13.44 billion.

Why PepsiCo’s Payout Looks Tighter Today

Chevron’s dividend looks safer than FY2025 headlines suggest. Q2 2026 free cash flow of $15.4 billion and rapid deleveraging restore clear headroom. The risk here is variance in cash flow through the cycle. PepsiCo’s payout is structurally tighter: coverage is intact, but the cushion is narrow, earnings have flattened, and the yield climbs as the share price stalls. The view on PepsiCo would change if two consecutive years show operating cash flow comfortably above capex plus dividends with Frito-Lay volumes reaccelerating. The view on Chevron changes if Brent parks below $60 while buybacks continue. Both dividends remain funded. The nature of the stresses each company faces, however, is distinct.

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Oil markets are being reshaped by geopolitics as much as geology. Venezuela, home to the world’s largest proven crude reserves, is now moving closer to the U.S. after years of isolation, while OPEC’s influence over global supply appears to be weakening. 

Venezuela produced only about 1.16 million barrels of oil a day in July, according to Bloomberg, less than half its output a decade ago. That means a Venezuelan exit from OPEC would have little immediate effect on crude prices. The bigger implication is what comes next: another crack in OPEC’s foundation and a potentially massive reopening of Venezuela’s oil industry to U.S. companies. And that puts Chevron (NYSE:CVX) in a particularly attractive position.

OPEC Could Lose Another Piece

Bloomberg reported Thursday that Venezuela is closely examining plans to leave OPEC, although no final decision has been made. The development would follow the United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave the cartel, giving OPEC another high-profile departure in only months.

To be clear, there would likely be little immediate impact to OPEC. Venezuela already isn’t subject to production limits because its output has fallen so far. So an exit wouldn’t suddenly unleash millions of additional barrels.

The longer-term risk for OPEC is credibility. Venezuela’s departure could encourage other members to prioritize production and market share over coordinated supply restrictions. Bloomberg notes that a broader breakdown could recreate the 2020-style battle for market share. For investors, that could mean more downward pressure on crude prices over time — a mixed outcome for oil producers but potentially beneficial for refiners and consumers.

Chevron Already Has a Head Start

The more compelling opportunity is Venezuela itself. Since U.S. forces removed Nicolas Maduro from power on Jan. 3, Washington has assumed far greater influence over Venezuela’s oil industry. Reuters reports that the U.S. is negotiating long-term access to a group of Venezuelan fields that American companies could develop, with 17 fields under consideration across the Orinoco Belt and Lake Maracaibo. One structure being discussed would involve leases followed by auctions or tenders for individual fields.

Chevron isn’t waiting for the starting gun. In April, the oil and gas giant increased its working interest in the Petroindependencia joint venture to 49% by acquiring an additional 13.21% stake. It also received rights to develop the adjacent Ayacucho 8 area in the Orinoco Oil Belt through its 30%-owned Petropiar JV.

That positioning is important because Venezuela’s oil is predominantly heavy and extra-heavy crude, requiring specialized infrastructure and expertise. Chevron already has both.

The company’s financial strength gives it another advantage. Chevron generated $12 billion in adjusted earnings and $15.4 billion in adjusted free cash flow during the second quarter, while production reached a record 4.07 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Venezuela therefore represents an opportunity to add potentially valuable long-life production without betting the company on a turnaround that hasn’t happened yet.

More Than One Winner

Chevron may have the clearest head start, but it won’t have Venezuela to itself. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) could compete for field-development opportunities if Washington opens the door wider. ConocoPhillips generated $7.4 billion in second-quarter operating cash flow and returned $3 billion to shareholders, giving it substantial financial firepower for new projects.

Oilfield-service companies could be even more direct beneficiaries. SLB (NYSE:SLB) already signed a long-term framework agreement with Venezuela’s PDVSA covering exploration, field development, production, digital technology, and workforce development. Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) could benefit as drilling and completion activity expands.

And then there’s Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO). Venezuela’s heavy crude fits its complex Gulf Coast refineries particularly well. During its second-quarter earnings call, Valero said Venezuelan supply was increasing and expected its processing of Venezuelan heavy crude to exceed historical maximums in coming months. Similarly, Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) is one of the world’s largest heavy crude processors and its facilities are situated on the Gulf of America.

Key Takeaway

In short, Venezuela leaving OPEC isn’t the investment catalyst by itself. The bigger prize is the potential dismantling of barriers that have kept much of the country’s enormous oil resource underdeveloped.

Chevron is best positioned to capture that opportunity today because it already operates in Venezuela, just expanded its Orinoco footprint, and has the balance sheet to invest. Granted, legal challenges, political uncertainty and the possibility of lower oil prices remain real risks. Reuters notes that proposed leases could face constitutional and legal challenges under Venezuela’s existing framework.

But if Washington and Caracas turn today’s negotiations into a durable investment framework, Chevron could be one of the first — and potentially biggest — corporate winners.

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Wall Street has spent the last several years discounting a handful of famous dividend names on fears of patent cliffs, volume declines, and commodity swings. But the checks keep clearing. Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) still trades 20.8% below where it was five years ago, even as management just reaffirmed its payout in front of a looming loss-of-exclusivity window. Two other names, one industrial and one energy major, are in the same conversation. Here is where the yields sit, and whether the coverage supports them.

Pfizer: A 6% Yield With Management Drawing a Line in the Sand

Pfizer currently yields 6.15% on an annualized forward dividend of $1.72 per share, paid as a $0.43 quarterly distribution. The dividend was $0.42 in 2024 and has stepped up every year in the recent record, from $0.36 in 2019 to today.

Pfizer reaffirmed adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $2.80 to $3.00 for 2026, comfortably above the $1.72 annual payout. Second-quarter operating cash flow was $3.45 billion, and the company returned $4.9 billion to shareholders via the dividend in the first half. CEO Albert Bourla said flatly, “We feel extremely confident that, even in the most stretched scenarios we are running, we will be able to maintain our dividend.” Leverage ended the quarter at 2.7 times, and management now expects $6.7 billion in net cost savings through 2029.

In terms of the bull case, Pfizer’s launched and acquired products grew 18% operationally, and the pharma giant sees a path to high single-digit revenue growth after the LOE period ends in 2028. However, the implied risk is the same LOE cliff. Pfizer’s own guidance absorbs a meaningful headwind, and any acceleration of generic entry would pressure the coverage cushion.

UPS: Yield Above 6% After a Multiyear Reset

UPS (NYSE:UPS) yields 6.39% on an annualized forward dividend of $6.56 per share, or $1.64 quarterly. That payout has held steady across the seven most recent quarters, after a large step-up from $1.02 in 2021 to $1.52 in 2022. The stock is still 30.79% below its price five years ago.

Management guided full-year adjusted EPS of approximately $7.22, against a planned dividend payout of around $5.4 billion. Expected 2026 free cash flow is approximately $5.5 billion, essentially matching the dividend. Cash on the balance sheet stood at $4.7 billion with no commercial paper outstanding. CEO Carol Tomé framed the turnaround directly: “Incremental volume today carries materially better economics than before because of the structural changes we’ve made.”

The bull case is the completed Amazon glide-down, roughly $3 billion of savings landing in 2026, and U.S. domestic operating margin already back to 9.2%. The risk remains that free cash flow barely covers the dividend, and U.S. average daily volume still fell 3.3% year-over-year. Any macro air pocket makes that math a little uncomfortable.

Chevron: Lower Yield, but the Coverage Is a Fortress

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) rounds out the group as a high-yield income name rather than an ultra-high-yield one. The stock yields 3.44% on a $1.78 quarterly payout, with an annualized forward dividend of $7.12 per share. The per-share amount has stepped up every year in the record shown, from $1.29 in 2020 to $1.78 in 2026. Skepticism here is less about the payout and more about long-term oil demand.

Recent Q2 adjusted earnings came in at $6.06 per share, adjusted free cash flow was $15.4 billion, and Chevron cut debt by more than $8 billion in the quarter. Net debt to cash flow from operations sits at 0.6 times. Management hit $3 billion of structural cost reductions six months ahead of schedule and reaffirmed a long-term target of adjusted free cash flow growth averaging greater than 10% per year through 2030.

The record U.S. upstream production of nearly 2.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day makes a solid bull case for the stock, along with Hess assets producing free cash flow roughly double the incremental dividends, and forward P/E holding at 13. However, earnings are still tethered to Brent, and CEO Mike Wirth’s $6 billion affiliate distribution guidance is set at $70 Brent.

What Ties These Three Payouts Together

These three names share a pattern the market keeps missing: durable cash flow, explicit CEO commitments to the payout, and multiyear cost programs that widen the coverage cushion each quarter. A 6%+ yield usually means the market suspects a cut is coming, and sometimes it is right (we walked through the seven warning signs that separate a real trap from a discounted payer in a free report here). Pfizer and UPS clear those tests while their businesses reset. Chevron pays less but backs it with the strongest balance sheet of the three. For income investors, the group offers a rare combination of skepticism-driven pricing and management teams putting the dividend first.

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Building a monthly income stream from quarterly dividend payers requires just a little scheduling. Three blue chips, staggered on different quarterly calendars, can deliver a paycheck in every month of the year. Altria (NYSE:MO) pays in January, April, July, and October. AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) pays in February, May, August, and November. Chevron (NYSE:CVX) pays in March, June, September, and December. Together, these three tickers cover all 12 months while offering attractive dividends along the way.

Here is what each leg of the ladder actually pays, how it has grown, and where the risks sit.

Altria: January, April, July, October

Altria just paid investors $1.06 per share on July 10, 2026, holding the level from the two prior quarters. The tobacco maker trades at $68.08 and carries a dividend yield of 6.19%, the highest of the three. Trailing 12-month payouts total $4.24, with the annualized forward at the same level.

The growth track record is proven. Altria has stepped the payout higher every year in this dataset, from $0.86 in 2020 to the current $1.06. Fundamentals are cooperating: management guided 2026 adjusted EPS to $5.56 to $5.72, and the Q1 earnings report of $1.32 beat the $1.25 estimate on revenue of $5.43 billion. Shares are up 23.72% year to date.

The risk to watch is regulatory and legal. Several third-party securities investigation notices have circulated in recent weeks, including a August 24, 2026 notice from Schall, Brown & Schwartz. These are not company announcements, and they do not change the dividend. They do reinforce why Altria trades at a forward multiple of just 12x.

AbbVie: February, May, August, November

AbbVie just paid investors $1.73 per share on August 14, 2026, the third payment at that level after a step up from $1.64. The trailing 12-month total sits at $6.83, with the annualized forward at $6.92. At the recent $259.76 quote, the yield is 2.58%.

The cash-flow story is the point. On the Q2 call, CFO Scott Reents told analysts AbbVie has “strong cash flows, balance sheet, and business outlook” and “substantial financial flexibility to pursue additional innovative business development.” Skyrizi hit $5.5 billion in the quarter, up 24% operationally, and Rinvoq cleared $2.5 billion, up 23.7%. Management lifted full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $13.87 to $14.07.

Here’s the catch: the reported profitability was depressed by acquisition accounting, which pushes the trailing PE to 75x even though forward PE is 19x. Investors that are seriously relying on the payout should track leverage after the Apogee deal closes. Management committed to a net leverage ratio of two times within two to three years following the deal close. Shares have run 30.1% over the past year.

Chevron: March, June, September, December

Chevron declared its latest $1.78 quarterly payout on July 29, 2026, with a record date of August 19, 2026 and payment on September 10, 2026. That marks a step up from $1.71 in 2025 and $1.63 in 2024. Trailing 12-month payouts total $7.05, with the annualized forward at $7.12. Yield sits at 3.44%.

The Q2 report gave dividend investors what they wanted: adjusted earnings of $12 billion, or $6.06 per share, adjusted free cash flow of $15.4 billion, and debt reduction of more than $8 billion in the quarter. Net debt to cash flow from operations closed at 0.6 times. CEO Mike Wirth told the call, “Consistent with our longstanding financial priorities, we intend to reward our shareholders today tomorrow and long into the future.” The Hess assets are generating strong free cash flow, which has been roughly double the incremental dividends and accretive to shareholders on a per share basis.

Chevron shares are up 35.01% year to date and 32.22% over the past year. Forward PE is 13x.

Putting the Ladder Together

Equal-weighted, these three names blend to a yield around 4%, with concentrated exposures worth noting: tobacco regulation for Altria, biosimilar and pipeline execution for AbbVie, and commodity prices for Chevron. That mix is the reason the ladder works. When crude cracks widen, Chevron benefits. When defensive consumer names catch a bid, Altria carries the load. AbbVie sits in the middle as a healthcare hedge with a growing payout. If a three-stock stagger still feels too rough, there is another route: funds and stocks that cut a check every 30 days on their own, seven of which we lined up in a free report here: The 7 Monthly Dividend Stocks That Pay You Every 30 Days. The next event on the calendar: Chevron pays on September 10, 2026. Keep an eye on the stock and the ex-date if you want to be included in the next round.

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The recent personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report confirmed what most of Wall Street already suspected. The core PCE was flat month-over-month, but the headline annual inflation rate edged higher to 3.7% from 3.6%. That may not be enough to tip the scales and force the Federal Reserve to raise rates in September, but if the August jobs report and the consumer and producer price index readings due early next month come in hot, that could be the final straw. One thing is for sure: in a world of economic reports and mind-numbing data, all you have to do is visit the grocery store and check the price of meat, where two T-bone steaks now cost $40.

With the prospect of continued “sticky inflation,” at the very least for the foreseeable future, we researched which sectors fare best during persistent inflation. Energy, consumer staples, real estate, and healthcare tend to perform well during periods of inflation. Five Dividend Aristocrats are exceptionally well-equipped to withstand persistent inflation. With decades of uninterrupted dividend growth, these companies have the pricing power and hard-asset backing to pass rising input costs on to consumers.

Investors seeking defensive companies that pay substantial dividends are drawn to the Dividend Aristocrats, and with good reason. The 69 companies that made the cut for the 2026 S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats list have increased their dividends (not just maintained the same level) for 25 consecutive years. But the requirements go even further, with the following attributes also mandatory for membership on the Dividend Aristocrats list:

• Companies must be worth at least $3 billion for each quarterly rebalancing.
• Their average daily volume must be at least $5 million in transactions for every trailing three-month period at every quarterly rebalancing date.
• They must be members of the S&P 500.

We reviewed the list and identified five companies that could perform well for investors during inflationary times, and they make sense for growth and income investors now. All are rated Buy at top Wall Street firms we cover.

Why Do We Cover the Dividend Aristocrats?

S&P 500 companies that have paid and raised dividends for 25 years or longer are the types of investments growth and income investors want to buy and hold in their portfolios for the long term. These stocks are mostly conservative, and if we see a dramatic market correction, they will likely hold up much better than volatile technology and momentum names.

AbbVie

AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) is ranked sixth among the largest biomedical companies by revenue. This stock is one of Wall Street’s top pharmaceutical picks and an excellent choice for long-term ownership, offering a reliable 2.58% dividend yield. Few dividend stories in the market match what AbbVie has delivered since spinning off from Abbott Laboratories in 2013. The dividend has grown from $1.60 per share to a projected $6.92 in 2026, more than a fourfold increase in roughly a decade, compounding at better than 15% annually. That kind of dividend growth doesn’t just keep pace with inflation; it outpaces it.

AbbVie discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceuticals worldwide. It offers:

• Humira, an injection for autoimmune and intestinal Behçet’s diseases and pyoderma gangrenosum
• Skyrizi to treat moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, psoriatic disease, and Crohn’s disease
• Rinvoq to treat rheumatoid and psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, atopic dermatitis, axial spondyloarthropathy, ulcerative colitis, and Crohn’s disease
  Imbruvica for the treatment of adult patients with blood cancers; Epkinly to treat lymphoma
• Elahere to treat cancer
• Venclexta/Venclyxto to treat blood cancers

It also provides:

• Facial injectables, plastics and regenerative medicine, body contouring, and skin care products
• Duopa and Duodopa to treat advanced Parkinson’s disease
• Ubrelvy for the acute treatment of migraine in adults
• Qulipta for episodic and chronic migraine
• Botox is therapeutic for depressive disorder

The company also offers Ozurdex for eye diseases, as well as Lumigan/Ganfort and Alphagan/Combigan to reduce elevated intraocular pressure in patients with open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension. AbbVie also offers Restasis to increase tear production, along with other eye care products.

Further, it provides:

• Mavyret/Maviret to treat chronic hepatitis C virus genotype 1-6 infection
• Creon, a pancreatic enzyme therapy
• Lupron to treat advanced prostate cancer, endometriosis, and central precocious puberty, and patients with anemia caused by uterine fibroids
• Linzess/Constella to treat irritable bowel syndrome with constipation and chronic idiopathic constipation
• Synthroid for hypothyroidism

Piper Sandler has an Overweight rating and a $303 price target.

Chevron

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is an American multinational energy company primarily focused on oil and gas. This integrated giant is a safer option for investors looking to gain exposure to the energy sector and pays a substantial 3.44% dividend yield, which was raised by 5% earlier this year.

Chevron operates integrated energy and chemicals businesses worldwide through two segments. The Upstream segment is involved in the following:

• Exploration, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas
• Processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas
• Transportation of crude oil through pipelines, and transportation and storage
• Marketing of natural gas, as well as operating a gas-to-liquids plant

The Downstream segment engages in:

• Refining crude oil into petroleum products
• Marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants
• Manufacturing and marketing renewable fuels
• Transporting crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car
• Manufacturing and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives

It also involves cash management, debt financing, insurance operations, real estate, and technology businesses.

Chevron completed its $53 billion acquisition of Hess in July 2025. The merger proceeded after a favorable arbitration ruling against Exxon over Hess’s lucrative offshore oil assets in Guyana. The purchase has strengthened an already solid balance sheet and earnings.

Bank of America has a Buy rating and a price target of $227.

PepsiCo

This top consumer staples stock reported surprisingly solid second-quarter earnings and will continue supplying goods for upcoming football tailgates and parties. PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) is a global food and beverage company that pays a notable 4.16% dividend yield. The company’s low volatility (beta of 0.375) makes it a steady, defensive holding perfect while waiting for a comeback.

Its Frito-Lay North America segment offers:

• Lays and Ruffles potato chips
• Doritos, Tostitos, and Santitas tortilla chips
• Cheetos cheese-flavored snacks, branded dips
• Fritos corn chips

The Quaker Foods North America segment provides:

• Quaker Oatmeal
• Grits
• Rice cakes
• Natural granola and oat squares
• Pearl Milling mixes and syrups
• Quaker Chewy granola bars
• Cap’n Crunch cereal
• Life cereal
• Rice-A-Roni side dishes

The North America Beverages segment offers beverage concentrates, fountain syrups, and finished goods under these brands:

• Pepsi
• Gatorade
• Mountain Dew
• Diet Pepsi
• Aquafina
• Diet Mountain Dew
• Tropicana Pure Premium
• Sierra Mist
• Mug

J.P. Morgan has an Overweight rating with a $170 target price.

Procter & Gamble

Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) was founded more than 185 years ago as a soap and candle company. It has paid dividends to shareholders since 1891, raised them for 70 straight years, and currently pays a 2.98% dividend. The company is focused on providing branded consumer packaged goods to consumers worldwide and has operations in approximately 70 countries.

Procter & Gamble segments include:

• Beauty
• Grooming
• Health Care
• Fabric & Home Care
• Baby
• Feminine & Family Care

The company’s products are sold in approximately 180 countries and territories primarily through mass merchandisers, e-commerce, including social commerce channels, grocery stores, membership club stores, drug stores, department stores, distributors, wholesalers, specialty beauty stores, including airport duty-free stores, high-frequency stores, pharmacies, electronics stores, and professional channels. It also sells directly to individual consumers.

Procter & Gamble offers products under such brands as:

• Head & Shoulders
• Herbal Essences
• Pantene
• Rejoice
• Olay
• Old Spice
• Safeguard
• Secret
• SK-II
• Braun
• Gillette
• Venus
• Crest
• Oral-B
• Ariel
• Downy
• Gain
• Tide
• Always
• Always Discreet
• Tampax
• Bounty

Citigroup has a Buy rating and a $170 target price.

Target

This American retail corporation with a chain of discount department stores and hypermarkets has rebounded strongly this year after a difficult 2025. Target (NYSE:TGT) is a general merchandise retailer in the United States and pays a 2.68% dividend. It offers apparel for women, men, boys, girls, toddlers, infants, and newborns, as well as jewelry, accessories, and shoes. The company also offers beauty and personal care products, baby gear, cleaning supplies, paper products, and pet care products.

Target also provides:

• Dry grocery, dairy, frozen food, beverages, candy, snacks, deli, bakery, meat, and food service
• Electronics, which includes video game hardware and software
• Toys, entertainment, sporting goods, and luggage
• Furniture, lighting, storage, kitchenware, small appliances, home décor, bed, and bath
• Home Improvement
• School/office supplies
• Greeting cards, party supplies, and other seasonal merchandise

The company also sells merchandise through periodic design and creative partnerships, shop-in-shop experiences, and in-store amenities. It also sells its products through its stores and digital channels, including Target.com.

UBS has a Buy rating with a $185 price target.

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Oil markets have spent 2026 learning an expensive lesson: barrels matter most when they suddenly disappear. The conflict with Iran and disruption of the Strait of Hormuz forced the U.S. and its allies to tap emergency inventories to keep crude flowing and limit the damage to consumers and refiners. 

That strategy worked, but the bill is becoming clearer. U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories fell another 3.7 million barrels last week to 289.7 million, their lowest level since November 1982, according to the Energy Dept.

The Emergency Cushion Is Getting Thin

The SPR has about 714 million barrels of authorized capacity, meaning today’s inventory represents roughly 41% of that total. The latest draw is part of a planned 172-million-barrel U.S. contribution to a broader International Energy Agency release. If the authorized U.S. releases are completed, inventories could fall toward 243 million barrels.

That number matters because the SPR is not simply a giant underground gas station. The Government Accountability Office found in 2026 that current effective drawdown capacity was already about 2.7 million barrels per day versus a 4.4-million-barrel design rate, with low cavern inventories contributing to some limitations. Federal law also restricts limited drawdowns below 252 million barrels.

In other words, every additional barrel removed doesn’t just shrink the inventory. It reduces the U.S.’s flexibility.

The Next Shock Could Hit Harder

Assuming the Strait of Hormuz situation normalizes, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects Middle Eastern production to return closer to pre-conflict levels in early 2027, although it still expects about 600,000 barrels per day of disruption through the end of next year. That is the bullish case for rebuilding the buffer.

The problem is that oil has plenty of other ways to surprise investors. EIA data show the Strait of Malacca carried 23.2 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025, more than Hormuz’s 20.9 million barrels per day. Bab el-Mandeb handled 4.2 million barrels per day, while the Turkish Straits moved 3.7 million.

A major attack on Persian Gulf infrastructure, disruption in the Black Sea, another Red Sea escalation, or a hurricane shutting U.S. production and refining could therefore arrive when America’s strategic buffer is already depleted.

That’s the key investment thesis: the SPR has reduced today’s oil-price risk by increasing tomorrow’s sensitivity to supply disruptions.

Oil Producers Have the Better Setup

The U.S. is in a stronger position than it was in the 1980s because domestic production provides an important supply offset. But American production cannot instantly replace a global shipping disruption.

For investors, that makes upstream producers such as Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) potentially important beneficiaries if tighter physical markets push crude prices higher. The effect is even more significant if the government eventually begins rebuilding the SPR.

Refilling 200 million barrels would create a large buyer in the market. At $70 per barrel, that represents $14 billion of crude purchases. At $90, it becomes $18 billion. That is future demand sitting on the other side of today’s drawdown.

Key Takeaway

In short, the SPR did its job. Its releases helped moderate the price impact of the 2026 supply shock and supported refinery operations while global oil flows were disrupted. But investors should not mistake temporary relief for restored energy security. At 289.7 million barrels, the reserve is already at a 44-year low, while operational constraints make the remaining barrels less useful as inventory falls.

If the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, rebuilding can begin. If another major disruption arrives first, the U.S. will have fewer barrels to deploy and fewer days to buy time.

For investors, that argues for watching physical oil markets — not just headline crude prices. A thinner SPR makes supply shocks more valuable to producers, more expensive for consumers, and potentially more consequential for the broader economy.

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ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) both reported blockbuster quarters this summer, and both raised dividends yet again in 2026. That makes this the right moment to look past a single earnings report and ask a harder question: over a full decade, which oil major has actually treated dividend investors better?

Two Very Different Quarters Under the Hood

Chevron’s Q2 was the louder headline. Revenue hit $67.20B, worldwide production reached a record 4,070 MBOED, and adjusted EPS came in at $6.06, a seventh straight beat. CEO Mike Wirth credited “disciplined investment and strong execution”, and it shows: US refinery throughput ran at 97% utilization, and downstream earnings jumped to $4.87B from $737M a year earlier.

ExxonMobil’s Q2 was quieter on the surface but arguably more impressive. The company posted industry-leading earnings of $14.5 billion and $23.6 billion in operating cash flow despite losing “approximately 10% of our upstream production” to Middle East disruption. Guyana alone contributed roughly 900,000 barrels per day, and Permian output topped 1.8 million oil equivalent barrels per day.

Ten Years of Dividend Checks, Side by Side

Now the payout question. Both companies have been quietly compounding for a decade, but the paths look different.

Chevron grew its per-share payout by a larger dollar amount over the decade, and its yield today is meaningfully higher. But Exxon never blinked through the 2020 crash, when many peers cut, and now sits on 43 consecutive annual increases. On pure streak length and defensiveness, Exxon wins.

Organic Growth Vs. Buy-and-Build

The strategies funding those checks have diverged sharply. Exxon is riding organic firepower: Permian, Guyana, Golden Pass LNG, and $16.3 billion of cumulative structural cost savings since 2019. CFO Neil Hansen described Guyana as “very much an inflection into free cash flow” after full recovery of the $55 billion investment.

Chevron went the acquisition route. Hess synergies hit a $1.5 billion annual run-rate six months ahead of schedule, and Chevron cut more than $8 billion of debt in Q2 alone. Then came Project Kilby, a 20-year take-or-pay deal with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) for 2.67 gigawatts of behind-the-meter power for AI data centers. That is a genuinely new revenue stream for a Big Oil dividend.

What Decides the Next Ten Years

I will be watching whether Guyana’s cash-flow inflection lets Exxon accelerate its raises past the current roughly 4% annual pace. You should keep an eye on whether Chevron’s Microsoft deal actually clears FID later in 2026, because mid-teens returns on contracted power would change the dividend math.

Why I Give the Decade to Exxon, But Own Chevron for Yield

If someone made me pick a ten-year dividend winner based on durability, I lean Exxon. The 0.17 debt-to-equity balance sheet and unbroken streak through 2020 tell me the check keeps clearing in the ugliest markets (we ranked ten companies with the longest raise streaks by valuation in a free Dividend Kings report).

If I wanted more current income and did not mind Hess integration risk, Chevron’s 3.39% yield and Kilby optionality look more interesting. Both can work. Neither is broken. I just view them as meaningfully different investments.

The post ExxonMobil vs. Chevron: We Compared 10 Years of Dividend Growth And Here’s the Winner appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) has quietly become the best-performing supermajor of 2026. The Brazilian state-controlled producer’s ADRs are up 62.64% year to date through August 20, well ahead of Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) at 40.81% and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) at 38.76%. Yet the payout that made PBR a fixture in yield portfolios has shrunk sharply.

Petrobras’ trailing twelve-month distribution now stands at $0.707311 per ADS, versus roughly $1.89 across 2024’s payments. The two 2026 ex-dividend payments so far have been $0.124094 (April 24) and $0.142639 (June 3), with the next payment scheduled for September 28, 2026. The preferred ADR, Petrobras (NYSE:PBR-A), tracks the same schedule and is up 53.53% year to date.

Record First Half, Smaller Check

The 6-K filed August 20, 2026 showed a first half that any oil investor would take: revenue up 35.7% to $57.14 billion, net income attributable to shareholders up 55.3% to $16.63 billion, production up 15.1% to a record 3,281 mboed, adjusted EBITDA up 52.2% to $29.96 billion, and free cash flow of $11.51 billion. Petrobras still paid $3.74 billion in H1 shareholder dividends, but the per-share slice is down because the pie is being sliced differently.

Where the Cash Went

Two forces are absorbing the incremental cash. First, debt. Petrobras ended Q2 2026 with gross debt of $70.8 billion and net debt of $60.4 billion, and management wants gross debt steered toward $65 billion, with a $75 billion ceiling. On the Q2 call, executives said the $65 billion target was being pulled forward: “the ambition we had in our strategic planning which was supposed to take place in the end of this five-year period ending in 2030 so the idea is to bring that slightly forward”. On extraordinary dividends, they were blunt: “That’s very unlikely now because first Brent is expected to stay at the same level for quite a while.”

Second, taxes. Brazil’s new 12% crude and 50% diesel export tax under Provisional Measure No. 1,340/2026 added $1,087 million in tax expense in H1 2026, and while the regime expired in July 2026, it remains in effect pending reassessment. The controlling shareholder that sets the payout also levied the tax.

What Investors Should Watch

The Q2 earnings report was messier than the headline suggests: GAAP EPS of $0.81 missed the $1.40 consensus by 42.24% even as quarterly net income nearly doubled to $10.44 billion. With PBR trading at a forward P/E near 4 and a $22.01 analyst target, the debate for income investors is simple: capital return has been redirected to the balance sheet, and management has signaled that stance is unlikely to reverse until Brent cooperates. A double-digit trailing yield that quietly halves is exactly the pattern we mapped in a free guide to dividend trap warning signs.

The post This Oil Stock Beat Exxon and Chevron in 2026. Its Dividend Shrank appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Brent crude traded at $95.40 a barrel in early trading this morning, up from $67.21 a year ago, after the expired US-Iran ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz disruption pushed the oil complex back into crisis mode. That matters for retirees because July CPI came in mild at a 3.4% annual rate with a 0.1% monthly gain, extending a cooling trend after annual CPI ran 4.2% in May 2026. August CPI is not published until September, so this crude spike has not yet shown up in an official inflation print. It remains a threat to the cooldown that has not yet broken the trend. The three names below convert every dollar of Brent strength into cash returns, whether the Fed likes it or not.

Chevron Turns $95 Brent Crude Into Record Cash

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) pays a quarterly dividend of $1.78 per share, raised from $1.71 and declared January 30, 2026, for a forward annualized payout of $7.12 and a current yield of 3.16%. The next check hits accounts on September 10, 2026.

Dividend safety here is the real story. Chevron generated $19.7 billion of cash flow from operations excluding working capital and $15.4 billion of adjusted free cash flow in the second quarter, while cutting debt by more than $8 billion in the quarter alone. Net debt to CFFO ended the period at 0.6 times, interest coverage sits at 13.7x, and the company reached $3 billion of structural cost reductions six months ahead of schedule. The historical dividend record is a long, steady march of quarterly hikes: $1.63 in the 2024 payments, $1.71 through 2025, and $1.78 starting with the February 2026 ex-date.

The bull case is simple. Chevron produced a record 2,077 MBOED in the US upstream and grew worldwide output by 20% year over year to 4,070 MBOED, so every $10 move on Brent lands on a much bigger production base than it did a year ago. Hess synergies of $1.5 billion have been captured within a year, and Guyana pushes high-margin barrels into the 2030s. For color, Berkshire Hathaway’s June 30, 2026 13F disclosed 84,375,856 CVX shares worth $13.99 billion, or 4.67% of the portfolio, held unchanged during the quarter. That disclosure reflects a mid-year position rather than fresh buying.

The caveat: CPC pipeline flows out of Kazakhstan and the Strait of Hormuz situation can flip from tailwind to headwind fast, and higher DD&A from the Hess deal will keep pressure on reported earnings.

Exxon Mobil Has the Balance Sheet, and the Next Raise Is Pending

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) pays a quarterly dividend of $1.03 per share, raised from $0.99 and declared October 31, 2025. All three 2026 payments have held at $1.03, so treat the next hike as still pending. Forward annualized comes to $4.12, a yield of 2.54%, with the next payment on September 10, 2026.

The safety read is arguably the strongest in Big Oil. Exxon’s second quarter delivered industry-leading earnings of $14.5 billion, cash flow from operations of $23.6 billion, more than $17 billion of free cash flow, and a more than $7 billion reduction in net debt, all while absorbing the temporary loss of approximately 10% of upstream production from Middle East disruption. Debt to equity is 0.17, net debt to EBITDA is 0.55, and interest coverage is 56.3x. Cumulative structural cost savings hit $16.3 billion since 2019. The dividend history moved from $0.95 across 2024, to $0.99 in early 2025, to $1.03 starting with the November 2025 ex-date. CEO Darren Woods told investors this is a “fundamentally stronger company than it was just a few years ago.”

The bull case for retirees is that Exxon has decoupled cash returns from crude prices. It returned more than $9 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in the quarter, is executing a $20 billion share repurchase plan for 2026, and just achieved a Guyana milestone that management called an inflection: Neil Hansen told analysts “we’ve fully recovered the $55 billion of investment along with all the operating costs” and projected two times the level of free cash flow in 2030 than we saw in 2025. Permian output hit a record 1.8 million oil equivalent barrels per day, and Golden Pass LNG Train 1 shipped its first cargo in April 2026.

The caveat: reported Q1 net income of $4.18 billion was dragged by $3.88 billion of mark-to-market timing and $706 million in Middle East disruption losses, so quarterly headlines will remain lumpy while the Strait remains contested.

Enterprise Products Partners Pays You a Toll on Every Barrel

Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE:EPD) declared a quarterly distribution of $0.56 per unit, raised from $0.55 on July 7, 2026, for a forward annualized payout of $2.24 per unit. At a unit price near $38.20, that is a high-yield income stream backed by fee-based midstream volumes rather than crude prices themselves. One important structural note for retirement accounts: EPD is a master limited partnership that pays distributions, issues a Schedule K-1 rather than a 1099, and can generate unrelated business taxable income (UBTI) inside an IRA. That is not a reason to avoid it, but it belongs on the checklist before you buy it in a Roth.

Coverage is the headline safety number. Management reported record $2.8 billion of EBITDA, a 17% increase over the second quarter of last year, and adjusted cash flow from operations up 19% to a record $2.5 billion. Distribution coverage from operational distributable cash flow was 1.9x. Consolidated leverage sits at the company’s 3.0 target on a net basis, weighted average cost of debt is 4.7%, and 97% of debt is fixed rate with a 17-year weighted average life. Distributions have climbed steadily from $0.515 in early 2024 to $0.56 in July 2026.

The bull case is that Enterprise gets paid to move the barrels the world is fighting over. Pipeline volumes rose 8% year over year to 14.7 million barrels a day of oil equivalent, marine terminal volumes jumped 33%, and Permian gas processing hit 4.3 billion cubic feet a day, up 14%. The April-May demand surge added roughly $200 million in the quarter. Management returned $1.2 billion in cash distributions plus $159 million in unit buybacks, retaining $1.1 billion for growth and repurchases. Co-CEO Jim Teague said Enterprise posted “record earnings and cash flow in the second quarter of 2026.”

The caveat: growth capex is stepping up to the $3 billion area in 2027, and NGL prices still swing with the commodity cycle, so distribution growth is more likely to keep its slow-and-steady cadence than to accelerate on the oil spike.

Bottom Line for Income Investors

Chevron gives you a delivered 2026 raise, record US production, and a fortress balance sheet. Exxon gives you the strongest balance sheet in the industry, a Guyana free cash flow inflection, and a pending raise that its cash generation clearly supports. Enterprise gives you a toll booth on the entire US export machine with 1.9x coverage and a fresh distribution bump. If Brent settles in the mid-$90s, all three keep growing payouts; if oil rolls back to the $80s, coverage on all three still holds, which is exactly the point for a retiree portfolio. Building a lineup like this so you can live off the checks without selling shares is the whole exercise in our free dividend ladder guide.

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Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) both reported second quarter results on July 31, 2026, and the two supermajors are steering through the same tight oil market with very different playbooks.

Exxon leaned on Guyana, the Permian, and integrated refining. Chevron leaned on a freshly digested Hess deal and a new bet on powering AI data centers.

Guyana Cash Machine Meets a Hess-Powered Chevron

Exxon delivered $14.5 billion in quarterly earnings and $23.6 billion in operating cash flow even after losing roughly 10% of upstream production to disruptions.

Guyana hit 900,000 gross barrels per day, and the company said it has fully recovered its $55 billion of investment there, tipping the asset into what CFO Neil Hansen called an “inflection into free cash flow.” The Permian set another record at 1.8 million oil equivalent barrels per day, powered by 83 four-mile wells drilled year to date.

Chevron told a different story: scale bought and quickly monetized. Global upstream grew more than 5% quarter over quarter, U.S. upstream hit a record nearly 2.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, and adjusted free cash flow reached $15.4 billion.

CEO Mike Wirth said the Hess integration captured “50% more synergies than initially targeted, with $1.5 billion realized six months ahead of schedule.” Debt fell by more than $8 billion in the quarter.

One Doubles Down on Barrels. One Sells Electrons.

Chevron’s most eye-catching move is Project Kilby, a 20-year take-or-pay power purchase agreement with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) for 2.67 gigawatts of behind-the-meter capacity, targeting mid-teens returns uncoupled from crude prices. It is a reminder that the AI buildout runs on power as much as silicon, and we pulled together seven non-chipmaker suppliers riding that same wave in a free report here.

Exxon is going the opposite direction, sharpening its molecule advantage through Proxxima resins, Mobil 1, and expanded LNG at Golden Pass, Mozambique, and Papua New Guinea.

Next Test: Guyana Cash and Kilby Returns

I will be watching whether Exxon’s Guyana free cash flow really doubles by 2030 versus 2025, as management promised. That is the linchpin of the buyback story behind the $20 billion repurchase plan.

For Chevron, the tell will be Project Kilby’s final investment decision later this year and whether Iraq’s West Qurna II converts into competitive terms. CPC pipeline exposure and OPEC+ discipline sit uncomfortably in the background of both stories.

Why I Lean Toward Chevron for the Next Five Years

Both stocks have run hard. XOM is up 57.79% over the past year; CVX is up 40.68%. If you want the fortress balance sheet, a 43-year dividend streak, and the deepest well of long-cycle projects, Exxon is the cleaner choice. Its integrated chemical and specialty margins give it ballast that Chevron simply cannot match today.

Personally, I lean toward Chevron for the next five years. The Hess synergies are landing faster than promised, the Microsoft power deal opens a genuinely new revenue line, and the 3.44% yield pays me to wait.

My view flips if Brent collapses back below $70 and Kilby slips, because Chevron carries higher post-Hess leverage. CVX fits a yield-focused profile; XOM fits investors prioritizing the sturdier compounder.

The post Chevron vs. Exxon Mobil: The Better Energy Stock for the Next 5 Years appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Dividend investors have had plenty to cheer in 2026. Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) is up 19.3% year to date, Chevron (NYSE:CVX) has surged 38.76%, and AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) has added 19.16%.

With all three throwing off healthy yields and beating estimates, I want to lay out how Pfizer could reach $35, Chevron $250, and AbbVie $325 in 2027.

Pfizer’s Path to $35 Runs Through Obesity and Oncology

Pfizer trades at a forward P/E near 9 while paying a $1.72 annualized dividend yielding roughly 6.4%. At $35, shares would still trade under 12x the midpoint of 2026 guidance of $2.80 to $3. CEO Albert Bourla told investors, “we remain committed to maintaining and, over time, growing our dividends.”

Pfizer has beaten EPS expectations in all ten of the last ten quarters. Catalysts for a re-rating include Metsera’s monthly GLP-1 targeting a $150 billion obesity market, Padcev growth over 20%, and $9.7 billion in cost savings through 2029.

Chevron’s $250 Case Rests on Guyana, Hess, and AI Power

Chevron just delivered $6.06 in adjusted Q2 EPS and $15.4 billion in free cash flow, with debt cut by more than $8 billion. The $7.12 annualized dividend is comfortably covered. At forward P/E of 13, $250 would push the multiple toward 16, reasonable given Hess synergies of $1.5 billion hit six months early.

The Microsoft 20-year, 2.67 gigawatt Project Kilby offers mid-teens returns uncorrelated to oil. CEO Mike Wirth described Guyana as a “world-class asset” extending growth into the 2030s. EIA sees Brent averaging $79/b in 2027, a headwind Chevron has already stress-tested.

AbbVie’s $325 Target Hinges on Skyrizi and Rinvoq

AbbVie posted Q2 revenue of nearly $17 billion, up 10.2%, with Skyrizi at $5.5 billion (+24%) and Rinvoq topping $2.5 billion (+23.7%). Management raised full-year EPS to $13.87 to $14.07. On forward P/E of 18, $325 implies roughly 23x, in line with the S&P 500. Piper Sandler raised the firm’s price target on AbbVie to $303 from $298 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares.

CEO Rob Michael said AbbVie’s “long-term outlook remains very strong.” The $10.9 billion Apogee deal and Skyrizi subcutaneous Crohn’s launch could “drive a meaningful acceleration” in 2027. The $6.92 annualized dividend keeps growing, up from $1.64 quarterly in 2025 to $1.73 today.

Bottom Line on Three Dividend Bull Cases

Wall Street’s consensus targets sit at $28.61 for Pfizer, $216.83 for Chevron, and $276.41 for AbbVie. My stretch targets of $35, $250, and $325 require beat streaks to continue, pipelines to deliver, and macro conditions to cooperate.

Returns like these carry execution risk each year, yet each name has laid out a credible blueprint for 2027 (for investors who want the longest-running dividend growers screened by valuation, we ranked ten of them in a free Dividend Kings report).

The post Dividend Giants Pfizer, Chevron, AbbVie: Bold 2027 Price Targets Ahead appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Oil has become one of the clearest financial beneficiaries of the Iran war — and one of the biggest headaches for American drivers. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy shipments, remains effectively closed, with little tanker traffic moving through the waterway. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is above $82 a barrel and Brent is above $88, compared with roughly $73 Brent before the war. The result has been a windfall for Big Oil. Bloomberg reported in July that combined earnings for the five supermajors were on track to be the third-highest in history, while several companies have already reported profits more than double a year ago.

Exxon And Chevron Are Already Cashing In

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) reported $14.5 billion of second-quarter profit, up from $7.1 billion a year earlier. Chevron (NYSE:CVX) reported $12.1 billion, compared with $3.1 billion. Together, they generated roughly $26.6 billion in quarterly earnings.

Both companies are integrated — meaning they produce crude, refine it into gasoline and diesel, and market those products. That matters when a geopolitical shock disrupts the entire energy chain.

Chevron’s upstream earnings jumped to $8.2 billion, while downstream earnings reached $4.9 billion. Exxon generated $17.2 billion of free cash flow and returned $9.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.

Their stocks reflect that strength, with Exxon and Chevron both up 33% year-to-date. Neither, though, is at its March peak, leaving room for further gains if crude prices remain elevated.

War Escalation Could Raise Gas Prices Further

Trump has repeatedly accused oil companies of gouging consumers, singling out Exxon, Chevron, BP (NYSE:BP), and Shell (NYSE:SHEL), and demanding lower prices. In June, he said gasoline should be $2.25 a gallon and ordered a Justice Department investigation into potential price gouging.

However, Exxon and Chevron don’t simply choose the price posted at every gas station. Local competition, regional supply, refining margins, transportation costs, and crude prices all influence what motorists pay.

AAA’s national average was about $4.06 a gallon this morning, versus $3.98 a month earlier and $3.11 a year ago. Gasoline had been below $3 before the Iran war began. Notably, widening the war could make Trump’s price problem worse.

Trump has repeatedly extended the truce to give negotiations with Iran more time. Yet Iran continues threatening shipping through Hormuz, and Reuters reported today that Tehran is considering a shift to a “fully offensive” posture if diplomacy fails.

Now Trump has threatened to bomb Oman if it “gets in the way” of peace talks. Oman is a U.S. ally and has been mediating between Washington and Tehran.

The Bigger Risk For Investors

An attack on Oman would introduce another Middle Eastern country into the conflict. If other Gulf states that have so far remained outside the fighting begin choosing sides, the market could price an even larger supply disruption.

That would be bullish for Exxon and Chevron’s upstream businesses and potentially their refining operations. But investors shouldn’t assume every additional $10 in crude translates directly into another $10 billion of profit. Demand can weaken, refining margins can reverse, and a peace deal reopening Hormuz could send oil prices sharply lower. Brent crude is already well below its $126 wartime peak.

Key Takeaway

In short, Exxon and Chevron are unusually well positioned for a prolonged oil shock because their integrated businesses can capture profits from production through refining and marketing. Another escalation could push quarterly earnings above their already massive Q2 totals — but investors shouldn’t chase the stocks solely on the prospect of war.

The better thesis is that Exxon and Chevron have demonstrated they can convert elevated crude and refining margins into billions of dollars of cash. If Hormuz remains closed, that cash machine could keep running. If peace finally reopens the strait, the windfall can disappear almost as quickly as it arrived.

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The Wall Street Journal published a report today, Monday, August 17, 2026, titled “Iran’s Secret Plan to Escalate the War,” the same day the 60-day US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June expires with no follow-on deal in sight. For investors, the question is narrower: if the ceasefire framework is dead and the Strait of Hormuz has effectively stopped moving cargo, why aren’t oil equities rising on the news?

The WSJ report, based on Arab and Iranian sources, alleges that hardline elements in Iran’s leadership treated the June memorandum as preparation for future conflict and reportedly decided to violate it from the moment it was signed. According to the report, the hardliners gave the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps greater authority over Iran’s military, appointed veteran Iran-Iraq War commanders to senior posts, and accelerated missile and UAV production. US officials reportedly warned Gulf countries, particularly Kuwait, that Iran was preparing to strike in “enemy territory.”

The Strait Has Effectively Stopped

Kpler data cited by Reuters and CNBC shows the mechanism. Only five cargo ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, versus 31 the previous weekend, and no ships were registered to pass on Sunday. Shipping is down 90% since the war began February 28, 2026. The Strait normally averages about 130 vessel transits per day and carries about one fifth of the world’s oil. Yet Monday morning, per CNBC, Brent crude futures traded at $88.45 per barrel, down 0.15%, and WTI at $81.79, down 0.74%. Reuters reported the near-term potential for gains is seen as limited amid the stalemate. The muted crude reaction is itself the story.

The Majors and the War Premium

At Friday’s close, Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) sat at $160.10, up 34.83% year to date and 53.82% over the past year. Chevron (NYSE:CVX) closed at $200.00, up 33.71% year to date, and Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) at $58.36, up 43.27% year to date. Exxon CEO Darren Woods told analysts the company absorbed “the temporary loss of approximately 10% of our upstream production” from the Middle East conflict.

The war premium moves violently in both directions. WTI peaked at $114.58 on April 7, 2026, fell to $69.60 by July 6, rebounded to $93.08 on July 23, dropped to $76.78 on August 5, and stood at $84.77 on August 11.

Exxon’s Valuation Tension

Wall Street’s consensus target of $168.55 sits above Friday’s close, but the ratings mix, 3 strong buy, 7 buy, 14 hold, 1 sell, tilts to holds. Our proprietary model rates XOM a HOLD with a base case of $138.68, citing roughly 13% overvaluation. Forward EPS of $7.07 implies a P/E around 25 on a $658.3 billion market cap.

The Tanker Trade

Frontline (NYSE:FRO) closed Friday at $41.21, up 102.93% year to date and 143.50% over the past year. DHT Holdings (NYSE:DHT) closed at $19.52, up 69.65% year to date. Both posted far larger year-to-date gains than the three majors. Tankers benefit directly from rerouting and higher freight rates.

A caveat on DHT: the latest quarterly dividend was $1.22, versus $0.24 in the same quarter of 2025, and the company pays 100% of ordinary net income. That payout structure means the yield falls when VLCC spot rates fall, not a fixed coupon.

Insurance and the Close

Per The National, citing Marsh broker Marcus Baker, war-risk premiums on tanker hull value rose from a pre-war baseline of about 0.25% of hull value to roughly 3% to 10% now. Insurers collect; operators absorb. HSBC’s Parash Jain told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe Monday that investors should treat “chaos is the norm” as the base assumption. Watch Kpler’s Strait transit count over the next two weeks and whether Qatar and Pakistan, the current message-carriers, produce anything resembling resumed negotiation.

The post Here’s What “Iran’s Secret Plan To Escalate The War” Means For Oil Stocks appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Brian, a caller from Pennsylvania, phoned in to Mad Money on August 13, 2026 with a stock his son had been researching. “My son has been following a stock that has over a 7% dividend yield, and they’ve historically raised the dividend every quarter,” he told Jim Cramer, before asking whether he should build a position in Hess Midstream (NYSE:HESM). Cramer’s verdict landed quickly: “I happen to like Hess Midstream. I happen to like the midstreams, especially Hess… I think you have a winner.”

The Caller’s Case

Brian built his question around two claims. The first was the yield: over a 7% dividend yield, as he described it on air. The second claim was more interesting: Brian said the company had “historically raised the dividend every quarter.” That assertion about a partnership public since 2017 holds up cleanly when checked against the record. Brian also flagged something Cramer glossed past: “Chevron happens to make up about 3.5% of my portfolio.”

What the Distribution Record Actually Shows

Hess Midstream pays quarterly distributions, and the dataset contains 37 records going back to 2017. Every payment in that series is larger than the one before it. There is no cut and no flat quarter anywhere in the progression, which runs from $0.2703 in 2017 to $0.7888 today.

The most recent distribution was declared July 27, 2026, went ex-dividend on August 6, 2026, and was paid today, August 14, 2026, at $0.7888 per share. The prior payout was $0.7792. Trailing twelve-month distributions total $3.0869, and the annualized forward figure sits at $3.1552. On the Q2 2026 call, CEO Jonathan Stein reiterated a “targeted 5% annual distribution growth, which we expect to continue.” Past distribution growth does not guarantee future distributions.

Cramer’s Answer and the Chevron Link

Cramer stated a preference for the midstream category and for Hess Midstream in particular. He also connected the dots on the customer relationship: “Hess was bought by Chevron, which is why they had the related Chevron.”

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) acquired Hess Corporation. Hess Midstream is a separate, publicly traded partnership that was not itself acquired. Its anchor customer is Hess Corporation, now inside Chevron. Midstream operators handle gathering, processing, transportation and storage of oil and gas rather than drilling for it, and revenue typically comes from fee-based contracts with producers, which is why they are often held for income. Chevron’s most recent Q2 2026 8-K filing confirmed the integration is well underway.

The Question Cramer Did Not Answer

Brian effectively asked two questions on that call, and Cramer answered the one about the stock. The other was buried in the setup: he already holds Chevron at about 3.5% of his portfolio, and he is considering adding a company whose principal customer relationship runs through Chevron.

A reader in a similar position might reasonably think about what that stacking looks like. Both names sit in energy. Both depend, to different degrees, on Chevron’s Bakken development pace and capital allocation choices. This is a consideration to weigh, not a criticism of Cramer’s view on the stock itself and not advice on what any particular investor should do.

Where the Stock Stands

Hess Midstream closed Thursday at $39.78, down 0.75% on the day. The units are up 22.58% year to date, from $32.45 at the end of 2025, up 2.62% over the past year from $38.77 on August 13, 2025, and up 137.7% over five years from $16.74 on August 13, 2021. Market capitalization sits at approximately $5.14 billion.

The Kicker

A distribution record that runs uninterrupted across 37 quarterly payments, with every payment larger than the one before, is unusual in any corner of the market. That is the part of Brian’s case that stands on its own regardless of whose verdict you find persuasive, and it is the part any prospective holder can verify without taking anyone’s word for it. This article is informational and not a recommendation on either stock.

The post “I Think You Have a Winner” Cramer Excited About Hess Midstream’s 7% Dividend Yield appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

The iShares Core High Dividend ETF (NYSEARCA:HDV) leans hard on two sectors to fund its payout. Energy and pharma names account for the top four holdings, combining for 25.96% of net assets. With HDV up 19.66% year-to-date and yielding roughly 3%, I want to know whether the checks these four giants send to BlackRock are actually safe.

The Four Dividends Powering HDV

Exxon: The Cleanest Balance Sheet in the Group

Chevron: Hess Cash Flow Reset the Math

Johnson & Johnson: The Dividend King Earns Its Crown

AbbVie: Growing but Leveraged

The Verdict on HDV’s Income Engine

The post The Energy and Pharma Giants Quietly Funding HDV’s 3% Yield, and How Safe Each One Is appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Oil has come alive again in 2026. Brent crude spiked to $138 per barrel on April 7 during the Strait of Hormuz disruption, retraced to the high $60s in early July, and now sits near $89. That volatility has fueled the U.S. majors.

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is up 24.73% year-to-date, Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) has advanced 28.88%, and Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) leads the group at 37.26%. Here is the path to CVX at $225, XOM at $180, and OXY at $75 in the year ahead.

Why Wall Street Is Warming Up to Oil Majors

All three companies are beating expectations. Chevron posted seven consecutive quarterly EPS beats, with Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $6.06 on revenue of $67.20 billion (+51.4% YoY). CEO Mike Wirth credited “disciplined investment and strong execution that drove record U.S. upstream production, record crude throughput in our U.S. refineries, and exceptional reliability across key assets.”

Exxon has strung together 4 consecutive EPS beats, and CEO Darren Woods says the company is “fundamentally stronger” after growing advantaged volumes in Guyana and the Permian. Occidental claims five straight beats, capped by a 29.8% Q2 EPS surprise at $2.40.

The Path to $225, $180, and $75

Chevron at $186.56 needs roughly 21% to hit $225. Exxon at $153.04 needs about 18% to reach $180. Occidental at $55.91 requires roughly 34% to $75.

At $180, Exxon would trade near 27x its full-year 2025 EPS of $6.70, close to the S&P 500 average, before factoring in 2026 growth. Occidental at $75 would sit near 15x its forward EPS of $4.85, hardly demanding given the deleveraging story. Chevron’s Q2 run-rate annualizes above $24 in EPS, keeping $225 in normal multiple territory.

What Could Push These Stocks Higher

• Commodity tailwinds. The EIA sees Brent averaging $106 per barrel in May and June and warns OPEC spare capacity will drop to 2.5 million b/d in 2027 after the UAE’s departure.
• AI power demand. Chevron signed a 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) for 2.67 GW of dedicated capacity in West Texas.
• LNG expansion. Exxon’s Golden Pass LNG Train 1 loaded its first cargo in April 2026, lifting U.S. LNG exports by 5%.
• Buybacks and deleveraging. Exxon authorized $20 billion in 2026 repurchases. Chevron cut $8.41 billion of debt in a single quarter. Occidental retired $1.9 billion and is closing in on its $10 billion principal target.
• Retail conviction. One popular r/options thread, “Oil is going to $150+ OXY $55 Jan 15th 2027 Calls,” carries a sentiment score of 88 (very bullish).

History Says These Moves Are Possible

Exxon has already gained 49.02% over the past year and 217.94% over five years. Chevron is up 124.72% over five years, and Occidental has climbed 126.74% in the same span. Another 18% to 34% year would be well within recent form.

The Bottom Line on the Bull Case

Chevron’s $18.10 billion in Q2 free cash flow, Exxon’s $15.60 billion in structural cost savings since 2019, and Occidental’s aggressive deleveraging support higher multiples.

Risks remain (OPEC quotas, weak U.S. natural gas prices, and Middle East supply shocks), but with Brent structurally supported and buybacks running hot, $225 for CVX, $180 for XOM, and $75 for OXY are stretch goals worth watching. Returns at this level should not be expected every year, but we have outlined the blueprint for how this trio could see outsized gains in 2027.

The post CVX, OXY & XOM: The Next Big Move in Oil Could Be Just Getting Started appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s biggest energy vulnerabilities. Roughly 20 million barrels of petroleum liquids — about 20% of global consumption — passed through the waterway in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That makes the strait more than a shipping lane. It gives Iran a relatively inexpensive way to threaten a huge portion of the world’s oil supply.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Washington wants to change that equation, calling the strait potentially “irrelevant” within two years as more oil moves through pipelines. For Chevron (NYSE:CVX), that’s more than a geopolitical talking point. The company is already involved in studying one of those potential escape routes: a pipeline connecting Iraq’s oil network to Syria’s Mediterranean coast.

The Goal Is Bigger Than Iraqi Oil

Iraq’s Haditha-Baniyas pipeline is important because it illustrates the broader idea: move oil overland to export terminals outside the Persian Gulf rather than forcing every barrel through Hormuz.

The proposed route would connect Iraq’s oil network at Haditha with Syria’s Mediterranean port of Baniyas. It is closely related to the historic Kirkuk-Baniyas corridor, which once transported Iraqi crude through Syria to the Mediterranean. However, the current proposal is not simply a restoration of the old pipeline.

More importantly, Iraq is only one piece of the puzzle. The EIA estimates Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have about 4.7 million barrels per day of unused pipeline capacity that can bypass Hormuz. That’s nowhere near the roughly 20 million barrels per day that crossed the strait in 2024, which explains why Washington cannot make Hormuz irrelevant with one pipeline project. It needs a network.

Why That Matters to Chevron

That’s where Chevron gets interesting. The oil giant is participating in studies for the Haditha-Baniyas project alongside Iraq and Syria. If the project eventually moves from feasibility studies to construction, the company could gain a role in developing infrastructure connecting Middle Eastern oil to Mediterranean markets.

But the bigger investment thesis is strategic. Every barrel that can reach a Mediterranean or Red Sea terminal without passing through Hormuz reduces the amount of traffic that has to be protected in the strait. That potentially reduces the military burden of keeping the waterway open — particularly important after a prolonged conflict has consumed precision missiles and air-defense interceptors.

The U.S. military has reportedly depleted large portions of several missile inventories during the Iran war and after years of supporting Ukraine. Rebuilding those inventories will take money, production capacity, and time.

That creates a second reason for Washington to favor infrastructure over perpetual military protection: a pipeline is a permanent piece of energy infrastructure, while interceptors are one-time expenditures.

The Pipeline Has Its Own Weaknesses

Granted, pipelines aren’t invulnerable. Iran and other regional adversaries have shown they can readily attack fixed infrastructure with missiles and drones. A pipeline running through Iraq and Syria could become a tempting target precisely because it cannot move out of harm’s way.

But the risk is different. A damaged pipeline is a localized infrastructure problem. A threatened Strait of Hormuz can become a global shipping and energy problem affecting millions of barrels per day. That asymmetry is the point.

For Chevron, meanwhile, the opportunity doesn’t depend entirely on this one project. The company generated $33.9 billion of operating cash flow and $20.2 billion of adjusted free cash flow in 2025, while returning $27.1 billion to shareholders.

The pipeline opportunity would therefore sit on top of an already cash-generating energy business rather than determine its entire investment case.

Key Takeaway

In short, Bessent’s “irrelevant” comment shouldn’t be interpreted as a plan to replace Hormuz with the Haditha-Baniyas pipeline. The objective is much larger: build enough alternative energy infrastructure that Iran can no longer hold the global oil market hostage simply by threatening one narrow waterway.

Chevron’s involvement in Haditha-Baniyas gives investors a tangible example of what that transition could look like. The project remains preliminary, and pipelines through conflict zones carry obvious risks. But if Washington is genuinely shifting from defending Hormuz indefinitely to building around it, Chevron deserves a place on investors’ watch lists.

The most interesting part isn’t the Iraqi oil. It’s the infrastructure required to make the world’s most important oil chokepoint matter less.

The post Scott Bessent Calls the Strait of Hormuz “Irrelevant.” Chevron Shows Exactly How It Happens appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Fifty thousand dollars a month in dividend income means $600,000 a year flowing into a brokerage account without selling a share. That target sits well above what the average American household spends. The Bureau of Labor Statistics puts annual consumer expenditures at $78,535 for 2024. So this is generational-wealth territory, and the capital required varies dramatically depending on the yield an investor is willing to chase.

The math is simple. Income divided by yield equals capital. The tradeoffs are what separate a portfolio that funds a lifestyle for forty years from one that pays high current income while quietly eroding.

The Conservative Tier: 3% to 4% Yield

At a blended 3.5% yield, hitting $600,000 in annual dividends requires roughly $17.14 million in capital. That is the price of buying the safest, longest-tenured dividend growers on the market.

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) fits here. The stock trades near $257, carries a 2% yield, and has raised its payout for 64 consecutive years. The quarterly dividend was lifted from $1.30 to $1.34 earlier this year. CEO Joaquin Duato said “Johnson & Johnson had a strong start to 2026 and is delivering on its promise for a year of accelerated growth”.

Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) yields 2.9% with 70 consecutive years of dividend increases and plans for roughly $10 billion in dividends in fiscal 2027. Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) yields 2.4% and just raised its quarterly payout from $0.51 to $0.53. Chevron (NYSE:CVX) sits at the top of this tier at 3.7%, backed by a $1.78 quarterly dividend and 20% year-over-year production growth from the Hess acquisition.

The tradeoff: highest capital requirement, but the payouts grow every year, principal appreciates, and inflation risk is largely handled by the companies themselves.

The Moderate Tier: 5% to 7% Yield

At 6% yield, the capital drops to exactly $10 million. The universe shifts to REITs, telecoms, preferred shares, covered-call equity funds, and high-dividend business trusts.

Realty Income (NYSE:O) yields roughly 5%, pays monthly, and has raised its dividend for 115 consecutive quarters. The most recent monthly payment was $0.271 per share, and second-quarter revenue grew 9.7% to $1.55 billion. The REIT’s 115 consecutive quarterly increases make it a hybrid growth-plus-yield story rather than a pure high-yield play.

The tradeoff: dividend growth slows to a crawl or stops. REITs like Realty Income grow the distribution in pennies rather than percentage points. Income keeps pace with today’s bills but rarely outruns inflation over decades.

The Aggressive Tier: 8% to 14% Yield

At 12% yield, $600,000 in income requires only $5 million. That is the seductive part. The rest is the problem.

This tier lives in leveraged covered-call ETFs, business development companies, mortgage REITs, and high-yield bond funds. Some option-income ETFs currently show indicated annualized yields between 11% and 14%. Distributions here often include return of capital. Principal erodes. Payouts get cut when volatility collapses or credit spreads widen. The investor is spending down the asset, not living off its growth.

The Insight Most Retirees Miss

Lower yields usually win over decades because dividend growth compounds. Consider $17 million in a portfolio yielding 3.5% and growing the payout 7% a year. That $600,000 becomes roughly $1.2 million a year in a decade without adding a dollar. A 12%-yielding portfolio with flat or declining distributions still pays $600,000 ten years later, but often with less principal behind it.

The ten-year total returns tell the story. JNJ has returned 173%, Chevron 186%, and Coca-Cola 173%. Those are the compounders. The 10-year Treasury sits at 4.6%, which is the risk-free floor every dividend must clear on a risk-adjusted basis.

What to Do Next

1. Recalculate the actual number. Household expenditures average $78,535. Fifty thousand a month may be aspirational rather than required. Model your real spending before sizing the portfolio.
2. Blend the tiers. A mix of 60% conservative, 30% moderate, and 10% aggressive can produce a blended yield near 5% with meaningful dividend growth behind it. That structure needs roughly $12 million rather than $17 million or $5 million.
3. Stress-test the aggressive tier. Pull ten-year total return charts for any 10%-plus yielder before buying. If price is flat or falling while yield stays high, the distribution is being funded from principal.

The post The Portfolio Blueprint for Building $50,000 a Month in Dividend Income appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Energy markets have spent 2026 relearning a lesson investors forget in calm years: supply chains built over four decades can unravel in four months. The Strait of Hormuz shutdown scrambled Middle East crude flows, a U.S. naval blockade briefly cut Venezuela off from the water entirely, and Washington has spent the past several months rewriting the sanctions rulebook that governs who gets to buy Venezuelan barrels. 

Now the fallout is showing up in the government’s own numbers. Preliminary data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration confirms that U.S. refiners imported zero barrels of Saudi crude in July — the first time that’s happened since 1985.

The Numbers Behind the Reversal

As recently as March, U.S. refiners were buying more than 800,000 barrels of Saudi crude a day, according to the EIA. By July, that number was zero for the entire month. Occasional weekly readings have hit zero before, but a full month without a single Saudi barrel hasn’t happened in over 40 years.

Hormuz-related disruptions choked off Gulf crude flows and pushed prices on Middle East grades higher, so refiners went shopping elsewhere. Venezuela absorbed most of the difference: U.S. imports of its crude rose to roughly 600,000 barrels a day in July, up from about 100,000 barrels a day in January.

That jump coincided with Washington’s expanded access to Venezuelan oil. Following the ouster of the Maduro government, the Treasury Department authorized U.S. entities to lift, purchase, and transport Venezuelan crude, extending beyond Chevron (NYSE:CVX) to include BP (NYSE:BP), Eni (NYSE:E), Repsol, and Shell (NYSE:SHEL). The EIA said in February that it expected Venezuelan output to climb back toward its pre-blockade level of 1.1 million to 1.2 million barrels a day by mid-2026.

Who Wins From the Venezuela Pivot

Two kinds of companies benefit here, and they’re not the same trade. Refiners with the metallurgy to process Venezuela’s heavy, high-sulfur crude get cheaper feedstock and wider crack spreads. Chevron gets something rarer: a license that lets it operate inside Venezuela at all.

Valero’s complexity — its refineries are built to run heavy, discounted crudes rather than light sweet grades — is exactly the asset class this shift rewards. Chevron’s position is different: it’s the only U.S. major with standing operations in Venezuela, and its ability to negotiate a bigger license is a regulatory catalyst, not just a commodity one. Surprisingly, that makes Chevron’s Venezuela business more of a binary political outcome than a refining-margin story.

The Risks Investors Shouldn’t Ignore

None of this is permanent, and it shouldn’t be treated as such. Kpler forecasts Saudi shipments to the U.S. rebounding to roughly 300,000 barrels a day this month — back near historical norms. Granted, that’s still down from March’s 800,000-barrel pace, but it shows how quickly a “generational shift” headline can revert once alternate trade routes are found.

Venezuela carries its own tail risk. Every barrel flowing north still depends on a sanctions license that the Treasury can amend or revoke, and PDVSA’s infrastructure spent years underinvested before the blockade. In any case, refiners leaning hard into Venezuelan crude are betting on the durability of a political decision, not just a supply contract.

Key Takeaway

The zero-Saudi-barrel month is a real data point, not a permanent state of affairs — expect Saudi volumes to partially recover if Hormuz-related disruptions ease. For investors, the more durable trade sits with refiners that can process heavy Venezuelan crude at a discount, with Valero best positioned on refining complexity and Chevron carrying the highest upside — and the highest political risk — through its Venezuela license. 

Sharp investors should track Treasury’s licensing decisions as closely as EIA’s monthly import data. In this market, the regulator is setting the crude flows as much as the refiners are.

The post The U.S. Didn’t Buy a Drop of Saudi Oil in July — the First Time in 41 Years appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

After a career spanning two decades at Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and Morgan Stanley, I gained an institutional perspective on dividend stock investing. My tenure at these premier Wall Street firms exposed me to fundamental analysis, credit evaluation, and risk management practices that directly translate into selecting high-quality dividend-paying companies. Having witnessed firsthand the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath, including the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, having left both firms before their respective collapses, I developed an appreciation for balance sheet strength, sustainable payout ratios, and the importance of dividends as a stabilizing force during market turbulence.

By analyzing cash flow generation, capital allocation strategies, and management quality at scale, I can identify companies with durable competitive advantages and the financial discipline to maintain and grow their dividends through economic cycles. Early in my career, I realized that dividend investing is not merely an income strategy but also a comprehensive framework for building wealth through companies that consistently return capital to shareholders while maintaining financial stability.

While much has changed since I started as a stockbroker in 1991, quality energy companies that dominate the industry and pay dependable high-yield dividends never go out of style. The big integrated giants dominated then and continue to do so, while the top midstream master limited partnerships (MLPs) still control the movement and storage of oil and gas. Five companies that investors can buy now at reasonable valuations can be stashed in a growth-and-income portfolio and held forever. All five are rated by the top Wall Street firms we cover.

Why Do We Cover High-Yield Energy, Dividend Stocks?

Since 1926, dividends have accounted for approximately 32% of the S&P 500’s total return, while capital appreciation has accounted for 68%. Therefore, sustainable dividend income and the potential for capital appreciation are essential to total return expectations. A study by Hartford Funds, in collaboration with Ned Davis Research, found that dividend stocks delivered an annualized return of 9.18% over the 50 years from 1973 to 2023. Over the same timeline, this was more than double the annualized return for non-payers (3.95%).

Chevron

Chevron (NYSE: CVX) is an American multinational energy company primarily focused on oil and gas. It is a safer option for investors looking to position themselves in the energy sector, and it pays a substantial 3.55% dividend, which was raised by 5% earlier this year. Chevron operates integrated energy and chemicals businesses worldwide through its subsidiaries.

The company operates in two segments. The Upstream segment is involved in the following:

• Exploration, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas
• Processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas
• Transportation of crude oil through pipelines, and transportation, storage
• Marketing of natural gas, as well as operating a gas-to-liquids plant

The Downstream segment engages in:

• Refining crude oil into petroleum products
• Marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants
• Manufacturing and marketing renewable fuels
• Transporting crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car
• Manufacturing and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives

It also involves cash management, debt financing, insurance operations, real estate, and technology businesses.

Bank of America has a Buy rating with a $227 price target.

ConocoPhillips

The big always gets bigger, and this company completed a $22.5 billion purchase of Marathon Oil in November of 2024. This deal added high-quality assets, particularly in the Eagle Ford and Bakken shales, to the company’s portfolio. ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is an exploration and production company with a rich dividend yield of 2.84%.

Its Alaska segment primarily explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The Lower 48 segment covers operations in the 48 contiguous states of the United States and the Gulf of Mexico. Canadian operations consist of the Surmont oil sands development in Alberta, the liquids-rich Montney unconventional play in British Columbia, and commercial operations.

The Europe, Middle East, and North Africa segment consists of operations principally located in:

• The Norwegian sector of the North Sea
• The Norwegian Sea
• Qatar
• Libya
• Equatorial Guinea
• Commercial and terminalling operations in the United Kingdom

The Asia Pacific segment has exploration and production operations in China, Malaysia, and Australia, as well as commercial operations in China, Singapore, and Japan. The Other International segment includes interests in Colombia as well as contingencies associated with prior operations in other countries.

UBS has a Buy rating with a $143 target price.

Energy Transfer

Energy Transfer (NYSE: ET) is one of North America’s largest and most diversified midstream energy companies. This top MLP is a safe option for investors seeking energy exposure and income, as the company pays a 6.58% distribution yield. Energy Transfer owns and operates one of the largest and most diversified portfolios of energy assets in the United States, with a strategic footprint across all major domestic production basins.

The company is a publicly traded limited partnership with core operations that include:

• Complementary natural gas midstream, intrastate, and interstate transportation and storage assets
• Crude oil, NGLs, and refined product transportation and terminalling assets
• NGL fractionation
• Various acquisition and marketing assets

Following the acquisition of Enable Partners in December 2021, Energy Transfer owns and operates over 114,000 miles of pipelines and related assets in 41 states, spanning all major U.S. producing regions and markets. This further solidifies its leadership position in the midstream sector.

Through its ownership of Energy Transfer Operating, formerly known as Energy Transfer Partners, the company also owns Lake Charles LNG Company; the general partner interests, the incentive distribution rights, and 28.5 million standard units of Sunoco (NYSE: SUN); and the public partner interests and 39.7 million standard units of USA Compression Partners (NYSE: USAC).

Jefferies has a Buy rating on the shares, with a $23 target price.

Enterprise Products Partners

This top American midstream natural gas and crude oil pipeline company is headquartered in Houston, Texas. Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD) is one of the most extensive publicly traded energy partnerships and pays a reliable 5.78% dividend. The company’s debt-to-EBITDA ratio ranges from 3.1x to 3.4x, which is moderate for a midstream energy company, and its interest coverage ratio is 5x.

The company generates strong free cash flow, with an operating cash flow of approximately $8.8 billion, resulting in approximately $4.2 billion in free cash flow annually after deducting capital expenditures. Another significant benefit for shareholders is that most of the corporate debt is fixed-rate, thereby limiting the risk of rising interest rates.

Enterprise Products Partners provides various midstream energy services, including:

• Gathering
• Processing
• Transporting and storing natural gas, NGLs, and fractionation
• Import and export terminalling
• Offshore production platform services

Its four reportable business segments are:

• Natural Gas Pipelines and Services
• NGL Pipelines and Services
• Petrochemical Services
• Crude Oil Pipelines and Services

One reason many analysts like the stock might be its distribution coverage ratio. The company’s coverage ratio is well above 1x, making it relatively less risky among the MLPs.

UBS has a Buy rating with a $45 price objective.

Exxon Mobil

Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) manages an industry-leading portfolio of resources and is one of the world’s largest integrated fuels, lubricants, and chemical companies. The decline in oil prices presents investors with an excellent entry point to secure a strong 2.69% dividend yield. Exxon is the world’s largest international integrated oil and gas company, exploring for and producing crude oil and natural gas in the United States, Canada, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia/Oceania.

Exxon also manufactures and markets commodity petrochemicals, including olefins, aromatics, polyethylene, and polypropylene plastics, as well as specialty products. Additionally, the company transports and sells crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum products.

Top Wall Street analysts expect the company to remain a key beneficiary in a higher oil price environment. Most remain optimistic about the company’s sharp positive inflection in capital allocation strategy, upstream portfolio, and leverage to a further demand recovery. Exxon offers greater downstream/chemicals exposure than its peers.

Exxon completed its purchase of oil shale giant Pioneer Natural Resources in 2024 in an all-stock transaction valued at $59.5 billion. The deal created the largest U.S. oilfield producer and guarantees a decade of low-cost production.

Morgan Stanley has an Overweight rating and a $168 target price.

The post 20 Years on Wall Street Taught Me to Buy and Hold 5 High-Yield Energy Giants appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is having a standout year heading into the second half of 2026. Chevron delivered Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $6.06 and revenue of $67.20 billion.

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Chevron is $204.72, implying 4.99% upside from the current $194.99 quote. Our model’s rating is hold with high confidence at 90%.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

A Blistering Run Meets a Rich Setup

Chevron shares are up 31.6% year to date and 18.79% in the last month, sitting just 1% below the 52-week high of $212.76.

Q2 catalysts included worldwide production of 4,070 MBOED, a record 2,077 MBOED in U.S. upstream, 97% U.S. refinery utilization, and downstream earnings of $4.87 billion against $737 million a year ago.

Chevron cut total debt by $8.41 billion in the quarter and hit its $3 billion annual run-rate cost reduction target six months early. The 20-year, 2.67 GW power purchase agreement with Microsoft for a West Texas data center reframes part of the story as AI infrastructure.

The Case for $226+

Bulls have real ammunition. The Hess acquisition generated $1.5 billion in synergies within a year, 50% above the original target. Guyana’s Yellowtail and Hammerhead projects extend the runway, the Permian Basin cleared 1 million BOE/day, and the Microsoft deal opens a durable power-and-data-center adjacency.

Brent averaged $104/BBL in Q2; if crude stays firm, our bull scenario points to $226.71 over 12 months, a 16.27% total return. Chevron’s $7.12 annualized dividend and 39 consecutive annual increases add ballast.

What Could Go Wrong

WTI whipsawed from $60.04 in January 2026 to $102.13 in May before settling at $84.81 in June. That volatility is the swing factor. Higher DD&A from the Hess deal, OPEC quota risk, and exposure in Venezuela and Iraq round out concerns.

Our bear scenario models a slide to $182.12, a -6.6% return. Bulls counter that debt reduction, cost cuts, and record downstream reflect the through-cycle discipline that limits downside.

How Chevron Compares to ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips

ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) is the direct integrated peer. Exxon trades at a trailing P/E of 22 with ROE of 11.03%, versus Chevron’s 32 P/E and 7.26% ROE. Exxon looks cheaper and more capital-efficient, making our modest CVX target reasonable rather than aggressive.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is the pure-play E&P counterpoint at a $145.14 billion market cap. COP posted a Q1 2026 EPS beat of 11.62% but is guiding to a 45% CFO return to shareholders, in line with Chevron’s cadence. Against COP’s tighter shareholder return math, Chevron’s 3.63% yield and integrated downstream cushion justify a premium.

Chevron Price Projection 2026-2030

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target of $204.72 and hold rating reflect a stock that has priced in most good news. The 90% confidence score is high because operational execution is clean, but the 18.79% one-month move leaves little cushion.

The $180 area could offer a more attractive risk/reward entry, particularly if Brent holds above $85. Stay patient if crude drifts to the mid-$60s, since that pressure was visible in Q4 2025 earnings.

Our base case model projects Chevron across the coming years, assuming steady execution and mid-cycle crude.

These projections assume Chevron continues delivering on Hess synergies, Permian growth, and cost discipline. Upside or downside will hinge on the crude cycle and AI-driven power demand from partners like Microsoft.

The post Wall Street Is Bullish on Chevron Stock. Here’s Our Price Target appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Volatility has been the theme of 2026. The VIX touched 31.05 in late March before settling back to a current reading of 15.86, and the 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.70%, near the top of its 12-month range. That backdrop shifts the calculus for income investors. When the risk-free rate is competitive, dividend stocks must earn their keep with consistency, coverage, and growth. The five names below share a common trait: multi-decade dividend streaks that ride out cycles like the one we are in now.

These are compounders with 39 to 71 years of uninterrupted annual dividend growth, boring in the best possible way — not high-yield speculations. Here is why each merits a closer look this August.

Coca-Cola (KO)

Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) is the archetypal defensive dividend name, and the numbers back it up. The quarterly dividend of $0.53 was raised from $0.51 beginning in 2026, extending a streak that spans 64 years. Shares closed at $86.56 on August 4, up 25.48% year to date, with an annualized forward dividend of $2.12 and a yield near 2.37%.

Second-quarter results reinforced the thesis. Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.97 beat the $0.9323 consensus on revenue of $13.38 billion, up 6.7% year over year, and management raised full-year guidance to comparable EPS growth of 9% to 10%. Coca-Cola Zero Sugar grew 16%, and the FIFA World Cup 2026 marketing push should juice volume into year-end.

Risk: The stock trades at 26 times trailing earnings, a premium to its historical average, and Asia Pacific price/mix declined 9% last quarter. The premium valuation limits the margin of safety at current levels.

McDonald’s (MCD)

McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) is the contrarian pick of the group. Shares are down 11.12% year to date, closing at $268.34, which pushes the yield up to 2.74%. The quarterly payout of $1.86 was raised from $1.77 in late 2025, marking its 49th consecutive annual increase and putting the company one hike away from formal Dividend King status.

The Q2 2026 report on August 4 delivered adjusted EPS of $3.38, beating the $3.32 estimate, with global comparable sales up 1.3% and nearly 220 million 90-day active loyalty users driving over $40 billion in trailing systemwide sales. Management is targeting 50,000 global units by 2028. Analyst target price of $323.58 implies material upside.

Risk: US guest counts turned negative and China and France posted negative comps. If a lower-income consumer slowdown deepens, traffic recovery gets pushed out.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) delivers a 64-year streak of increases. The board raised the quarterly payout to $1.34 in the May 2026 ex-dividend cycle, up from $1.30. Shares closed at $254.93, gaining 24.56% year to date and 52.77% over the past year.

Q1 2026 revenue of $24.06 billion grew 9.9%, and management raised full-year guidance to revenue of $100.3 billion to $101.3 billion. Innovative Medicine grew 11.2%, with DARZALEX at $3.96 billion up 22.5% and TREMFYA up 68.3%. CEO Joaquin Duato said "Johnson & Johnson had a strong start to 2026 and is delivering on its promise for a year of accelerated growth and impact."

Risk: STELARA is running off at a 59.7% decline as biosimilars take share, and legal reserves remain lumpy.

Chevron (CVX)

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is the highest yielder in the group at 3.55%, with a quarterly dividend of $1.78, raised from $1.71 in early 2026, extending its 39-year streak of consecutive increases. Shares are up 27.3% year to date to $190.40.

Q2 2026 delivered adjusted EPS of $6.06, revenue of $67.2 billion up 51.4% year over year, and free cash flow of $18.1 billion. Worldwide production climbed 20% to 4,070 MBOED post-Hess, and management pulled forward $3 billion in annual run-rate cost reductions six months ahead of schedule. The recently announced 20-year, 2.67 GW power purchase agreement with Microsoft in West Texas gives Chevron a data center demand tailwind that competitors lack. Next ex-dividend date is August 19, with payment on September 10.

Risk: Oil is cyclical. A sharp drop in crude flips the free cash flow story quickly.

Procter & Gamble (PG)

Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) owns the longest streak in the group: 71 consecutive years of dividend increases. The current quarterly payout is $1.0885, up from $1.0568 earlier in 2026, yielding 2.95% on a share price of $148.01. Management plans to return roughly $10 billion in dividends and $5 billion in buybacks in FY2027.

Q4 FY2026 core EPS of $1.43 beat the $1.407 estimate, and full-year free cash flow reached $15.84 billion. Beauty led the quarter with 6% growth. With a net debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.2x and a beta of 0.377, this is as defensive as blue chips get.

Risk: Management flagged a ~$1 billion after-tax commodity, energy, and transport headwind in FY27, an 8% drag on EPS growth. Organic sales were flat in Q4, so patience is required.

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Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) posted its best underlying quarterly profit in four years, with shares hitting fresh highs. After a 30.9% year-to-date run, risk/reward looks stretched.

Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Exxon is $139.86, implying 9.14% downside from current levels. The recommendation is hold with 90% confidence, reflecting strong operations colliding with a rich multiple.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

Why We Could Be Wrong on Exxon

Our price target sits below current trading levels, and the bull argument is real. Golden Pass LNG Train 1 shipped its first cargo in April 2026, Guyana keeps beating schedule, and WTI is up 19.8% month over month to $84.25. If Brent stays elevated on Middle East risk, Exxon could easily exceed our target.

A Four-Year Profit Peak Meets a 44% Rally

Exxon shares are up 43.65% over the past year and 14.06% in July alone, sitting just 5% below the 52-week high of $175.22.

Q1 2026 delivered adjusted EPS of $1.16 versus $1.01 expected, a 15.15% beat and the fourth straight quarter above consensus.

Underlying earnings hit $8.77 billion versus $7.58 billion a year earlier, the strongest underlying quarter in roughly four years, despite GAAP results dinged by $3.88 billion in unfavorable derivative mark-to-market timing and $706 million in Middle East disruption losses. CEO Darren Woods called it a “fundamentally stronger company”.

The Case for $164 and Higher

Bulls cite a genuinely improved earnings engine. Cumulative structural cost savings since 2019 hit $15.6 billion, targeting $20 billion by 2030. Guyana crossed 900,000 barrels per day, Permian hit records, and advantaged assets grew to 59% of production.

Capital return is exceptional: $20 billion in 2026 buybacks planned and 43 consecutive years of dividend growth. Analyst consensus sits at $167.09, with bull-case scenarios reaching $164.10, a 6.6% return. If Brent holds near the EIA’s $106/b Q2 forecast, upside estimates look conservative.

What Could Send Shares Back to $125

The bear case starts with valuation. Exxon trades at a a premium trailing multiple, well above peers, and the 224.56% five-year rally already prices in significant upside.

Q1 free cash flow fell 61.74% to $2.70 billion as capex climbed, and the effective tax rate jumped to 40%. The EIA expects Brent to fall to $79/b in 2027 as Middle East supply returns. Our bear-case scenario points to $125.51, an 18.47% drop.

How Exxon Compares to Chevron and ConocoPhillips

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) trades at a forward P/E of 14 versus Exxon’s 14, but its trailing P/E is 19 versus Exxon’s 26. Chevron’s analyst target of $215 implies meaningful upside, suggesting the Street sees Exxon’s premium as harder to justify.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) offers a pure upstream contrast. COP trades at a a lower forward multiple with a a lower PEG than Exxon. COP looks cheaper per unit of growth, reinforcing our view that Exxon’s target should sit closer to $140 than $167.

Model Verdict: Rich Multiple Meets Stronger Engine

The 24/7 Wall St. price target is $139.86, recommendation hold, confidence 90%. Valuation tips the scale: this is a fundamentally stronger Exxon, but a premium trailing multiple and 5% from the 52-week high leaves little margin for error.

The setup improves if crude sustains above $90 and free cash flow reaccelerates in Q2. Downside risk grows if Brent slides toward the EIA’s 2027 forecast. The current dividend yield sits at 2.6%.

Here is where our model projects Exxon could trade, assuming current growth trajectories hold.

These projections assume Exxon continues executing on cost savings and advantaged-asset growth. Significant upside or downside could come from sustained Middle East disruption or faster-than-expected energy transition.

The post Exxon Posts Its Best Profit in Four Years, Here’s Where It’ll End The Year appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Warren Buffett’s latest 13F filing, disclosing holdings as of March 31, and filed May 15, still concentrates Berkshire Hathaway’s public-equity firepower in just five names. Every one of them has moved this year, and the gap between what Buffett paid and where these tickers trade in July 2026 is the entire question. Skip this read and you are guessing at what the world’s most famous allocator is quietly compounding into. Here is the buy/hold/sell tape on all five, ranked for pacing, not size.

1. Chevron (The Surprise at the Top of the Line of Fire)

Start with the name most retail investors forget is even in the portfolio. Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is Buffett’s energy anchor, and it just delivered the kind of quarter that vindicates a contrarian oil bet: an adjusted EPS blowout against a headline revenue miss, masking the fact that production is ripping higher post-Hess.

In Q1 2026, Chevron posted adjusted EPS of $1.41 versus the expected 97 cents, a 45.56% beat, on worldwide production of 3,858 MBOED, up 15%, with U.S. output above 2 million barrels per day for the third straight quarter. Analysts have not chased the move: consensus target sits at $213.91 against a share price of $195.19 on Aug. 3, and the stock is already up more than 25% year to date.

Read: Buy. A 3.65% dividend yield, a 13 forward P/E and 18 Buy or Strong Buy ratings versus one Sell rating makes this the cheapest conviction pick on Buffett’s sheet. The obvious heavyweight is next.

2. Apple (The Position That Bankrolled the Berkshire Decade)

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) remains the largest common-stock holding on the 13F, and the tape has finally caught up to the thesis Buffett locked in years ago. The iPhone 17 supercycle plus Services at record levels has re-rated the multiple hard.

Q2 2026 landed at revenue of $111.18 billion, up 16.6% year over year, with EPS of $2.01 beating the $1.94 estimate by 3.61%, powered by iPhone revenue of $56.99 billion and Services at a record $30.98 billion. The board reloaded with a fresh $100 billion buyback authorization and a 4% dividend hike to 27 cents per share. Shares have surged more than 50% over the past year to $305.24 on Aug. 3.

Read: Hold. The fundamentals are pristine, but with the analyst consensus target at $315.79, the stock is trading above the Street. Buffett has been trimming for a reason. Fresh money buyers should wait for a pullback toward the 50-day moving average of $301.66. Next up: the bank that just posted one of its cleanest quarters in years.

3. Bank of America (The Rate-Cycle Beneficiary Buffett Won’t Fully Let Go)

Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) has been the subject of endless “is Buffett selling?” chatter, yet it remains a top-five 13F position, and Q2 2026 explained why he is holding the core.

The bank delivered Q2 2026 revenue of $31.56 billion beating by 2.55% and EPS of $1.21 versus $1.12 estimated, a 7.74% beat, with EPS up 34% year over year. Global Markets revenue jumped 34% to $8.02 billion, equities sales and trading rocketed 70% to $3.62 billion, and investment banking fees rose 50% to $2.14 billion. Credit stayed pristine: net charge-off ratio improved to 0.47% from 0.55%, and the bank returned $8 billion to shareholders in the quarter. CEO Brian Moynihan called it “one of our strongest quarters to date”.

Read: Buy. At a 14 trailing P/E and 1.565 price-to-book, with the Street target at $67.26 against an Aug. 3 share price around $62.07 and zero Sell ratings on 24 analysts, BAC is the cleanest risk/reward in the megabank complex. The next name is quieter, more defensive, and just went ex-CEO.

4. Coca-Cola (The Dividend Fortress in a Leadership Transition)

Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) is the position Buffett has famously never sold a share of, and Q1 2026 explained the loyalty: pricing power intact, volumes accelerating in emerging markets, and margins expanding under new CEO Henrique Braun.

Q1 2026 delivered revenue of $12.47 billion, up 12.1% year over year, beating by 1.97%, with EPS of 86 cents versus the expected 81 cents, a 5.87% beat. Underneath: organic revenue growth of 10%, Coca-Cola Zero Sugar volume up 13% across all segments and operating margin expanded to 35% from 32.9%. Full-year guidance calls for organic revenue growth of 4% to 5% and comparable EPS growth of 8% to 9% off the 2025 base of $3, with roughly $12.2 billion in free cash flow.

Read: Hold, buying dips. At a 27 trailing P/E with a 2.44% dividend yield, KO is not cheap after ripping nearly 26% year to date, but the analyst target of $87.10 leaves upside from the $86.84 share price on Aug. 3. But the stock has pulled back around 3% since July 29, providing the exact window income buyers wait for. Now comes the payoff.

5. American Express (The Longest Conviction Trade in the Book)

American Express (NYSE:AXP) is the punchline. Buffett has owned it since the 1963 Salad Oil Scandal, and it is the only top-five holding sitting in the red year to date, which is precisely why it belongs at the top of the shopping list right now.

Q1 2026 delivered revenue of $18.91 billion beating by 1.61%, EPS of $4.28 versus $3.99 expected, a 7.24% beat, and net income of $2.97 billion, up 15%. Billed business hit $428 billion, up 10% from $387.4 billion, with Card Member spending growing 9% FX-adjusted, the highest quarterly growth in three years. Management reaffirmed FY 2026 guidance of 9% to 10% revenue growth and EPS of $17.30–$17.90, and CEO Stephen Squeri called it a “very strong start to the year…10 percent FX-adjusted revenue growth and 18 percent EPS growth.”

Read: Buy. AXP trades at a 22 trailing P/E and just 20 forward earnings, is down 8.09% year to date to $342.57 on Aug.3, and the stock carries an analyst target of $374.94. Every prior time Buffett’s oldest conviction pick has stalled while its fundamentals accelerated, the reversion has been sharp. This is the setup.

The Threads Pulled Together

Two clear buys (CVX and BAC), one high-conviction laggard payoff (AXP) and two holds where fundamentals are pristine but valuations are ahead of themselves (AAPL and KO). The pattern in Buffett’s own trading, trimming Apple, holding banks, adding energy, points to the same conclusion: The money in the 13F is rotating toward the names that have not run yet. The window on AXP and CVX narrows every session the rest of the market keeps grinding higher.

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The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHD) sells one number in bold: a 0.06% expense ratio. On $10,000 invested, that headline fee costs about $6 a year. That fee is the smallest cost this ETF quietly extracts from a taxable holder, and the March 2026 reconstitution proved it.

What You Are Actually Paying

Let’s start with what is immediately visible — the low expense ratio. At 6 basis points, SCHD looks cheap. That said, similar funds, like the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (NYSEARCA:VIG) still charges less, at 0.04%, or about $4 per $10,000. The direct fee gap is roughly $2 a year on a $10,000 stake. Admittedly, that is a small difference. However, the real cost lies underneath.

SCHD tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index. The index reconstitutes each March, with the March 2026 reconstitution being one of the largest turnover events in fund history. Every name added or dropped forced the ETF to trade. As such, every appreciated share sold inside that trade became a realized gain the fund could pass to shareholders as a distribution.

The payout history shows this in practice. SCHD paid $0.8241 per share in Q2 2024 and $0.7545 in Q3 2024, well above the fund’s normal quarterly cadence of roughly $0.25 to $0.28. Post-reconstitution distributions like these arrive on your 1099 as income for shares you never actually sold, taxed at your income bracket in the year Schwab decides.

The Concentration the Factsheet Downplays

The May 31, 2026 NPORT filing shows how top-heavy this “diversified” ETF has become. Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) alone accounts for 6.74% of net assets. Add Texas Instruments and UnitedHealth Group, and the top three positions carry 17.73% of a 102-holding portfolio.

Energy is another cluster. Chevron (NYSE:CVX) sits at 3.83%, ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) at 3.51%, and Devon, EOG, SLB and ONEOK fill in around them. Analyst commentary puts SCHD’s total energy weight at nearly 17%, well above the S&P 500. That said, concentration cuts both ways. Qualcomm shares are down 18.86% over the past month and 12.81% year to date, and that pain flows straight into the ETF’s largest slot.

The Performance Gap Less Talked About

Here is the part the marketing tends to skip. Since February 2022, SCHD returned 46% while dividend-growth peer CGDV returned 113%. Over the last decade, SCHD trailed WisdomTree’s DGRW by roughly 38%. The screen that excludes megacap tech and demands a 10-year dividend record seemingly has a bill attached. And that hidden cost never shows up on the expense ratio line.

Holders pay through single names too. Merck (NYSE:MRK) sits at 3.86%, Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT) at 2.96%, and Altria (NYSE:MO) at 2.94%. Altria’s high yield is fully taxable at ordinary rates for most holders; SCHD’s screen accepts high-yield names like Altria because the dividend keeps coming.

The Cheaper Mirror

Investors who want broad U.S. dividend exposure with lower fees and lower turnover have options. VIG charges 0.04% and screens for consecutive dividend growers, skewing to more diversified megacaps. The trade-off is real: lower headline yield, less energy exposure, and far less reconstitution churn in your taxable account.

What This Means for You

SCHD’s 24.03% year-to-date gain is real, and the dividend growth streak is also real. However, before your next contribution, ask whether the March reconstitution tax bill, the Qualcomm-heavy top of the book, and the decade-long gap versus dividend-growth peers add up to more than the six-basis-point sticker suggests. The fee is the price on the label. The costs live underneath.

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The two largest American oil companies just booked a combined $26.5 billion in second-quarter net income, their strongest showing in years, and the president is furious about it. “They’re making too much money,” President Trump said Monday, according to CNBC. “I don’t like it.” A fuller version relayed by France 24: “I don’t like it. They’re making too much money, okay? Based on a shortage, they’re making too much money.” The shortage he refers to is one his own administration is helping create.

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) posted roughly $12.1 to $12.2 billion in net income, up about 384% from $2.5 billion a year earlier, aided by the Hess integration that lifted worldwide production to 4,070 MBOED. Downstream did the heavy lifting: refining profit jumped to $4.9 billion from $737 million, with 97% U.S. refinery utilization and record crude throughput. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) delivered $14.5 billion in net income, double the year-ago quarter and its best result since the post-Ukraine-invasion spike. Its refining arm earned $5.5 billion after losing $1.3 billion in the first quarter. CFO Neil Hansen has flagged that the binding constraint has shifted from crude to the shrinking availability of refined products like gasoline and diesel.

That constraint traces to the war. The U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran began February 28, 2026. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “closed” starting March 4, a chokepoint carrying roughly 20% of global oil trade. The EIA later assessed that Persian Gulf producers shut in 10.5 million barrels per day in April, driving Brent to $138.21 on April 7. Prices have since eased, with WTI at $84.25 on July 27, but the refined-product squeeze remains. Middle East refinery outages, lost Russian capacity from the Ukraine war, and China’s tight export posture have all compounded the crunch. The U.S. national average pump price reached $4.11 on July 31, versus roughly $2.93 a month before the war intensified.

On June 24, Trump accused Exxon, Chevron, Shell, and BP of price gouging and ordered a Department of Justice investigation, arguing crude had fallen roughly 36% without pump prices following. Six weeks later, crude is elevated because of a war his administration is prosecuting, and he objects to that too. In June the complaint was that oil companies were not passing along cheaper crude. In August the complaint is that they are cashing in on genuinely expensive crude. Chevron CFO Eimear Bonner and the American Petroleum Institute pushed back in June, citing the lag between crude and retail prices.

The DOJ probe appears still live, and a crude export ban is reportedly no longer being dismissed. Chevron has warned that restricting exports would discourage investment and ultimately shrink future supply. Trump has meanwhile stuck to a $2.25-per-gallon target, a level last seen during the pandemic driving collapse, a benchmark difficult to reproduce under wartime conditions. Investors have voted with capital: XOM is up 43.65% over the past year, CVX up 35.24%.

The same day, per Bloomberg, Trump separately criticized Chevron’s CEO for not sufficiently praising the administration’s pro-fossil-fuel policies. The signal to watch over the next quarter is whether the DOJ probe produces a subpoena, or an actual export restriction lands. Either would turn a personal grievance into policy that reshapes the barrel.

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High energy prices have become one of the biggest inflation stories of 2026. According to AAA, the national average price for regular gasoline now sits around $4.10 per gallon, up sharply from roughly $2.98 before the Iran conflict erupted earlier this year. 

Every trip to the pump reminds consumers how quickly geopolitical events can ripple through household budgets. For investors, it also highlights an important lesson: commodity markets don’t respond to political demands. Oil prices are set globally, retail gasoline prices are set locally, and neither changes because a president posts on social media.

Oil Companies Aren’t the Ones Setting Pump Prices

President Trump took aim at Chevron (NYSE:CVX) this morning after CEO Mike Wirth appeared on Fox Business with Maria Bartiromo discussing the company’s strong performance. In a Truth Social post, Trump argued Chevron’s success was only possible because of his administration’s actions in Venezuela, including reopening the country’s oil industry to U.S. companies after Nicolas Maduro’s removal.

He then demanded Chevron and other producers “get your consumer (retail!) Oil Prices DOWN, NOW!”

That criticism misses how gasoline pricing actually works. Contrary to popular belief, Chevron, ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), Shell (NYSE:SHEL), and other integrated oil companies rarely determine the price consumers see on station signs. According to the American Petroleum Institute, fewer than 5% of U.S. gas stations are owned directly by major oil companies.

Retail stations are largely price takers rather than price makers. Owners price fuel based on what it will cost to replace the next shipment, local competitors’ prices, labor costs, rent, credit card fees, taxes, and margins that are often just pennies per gallon. Many convenience stores earn more profit selling coffee and snacks than gasoline itself.

Chevron can influence wholesale fuel costs through its refining business. It cannot simply order independently owned stations across America to slash prices.

Trump’s Own Policies Have Been a Bigger Driver

The biggest move in gasoline prices this year followed Trump’s military action against Iran at the end of February. Oil markets immediately priced in the possibility of supply disruptions throughout the Middle East, sending both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude above $100 per barrel before easing.

Although WTI has since fallen below $80 per barrel and Brent has retreated to roughly $83 after Trump again delayed retaliatory strikes against Iran, crude remains well above where it traded when his administration negotiated a temporary truce with Tehran.

Markets continue to build a geopolitical risk premium into oil prices because Trump’s repeated threats to resume military action create uncertainty over future supply. That uncertainty — not Chevron’s earnings call — is what has kept gasoline prices elevated.

The merits of Trump’s foreign policy can certainly be debated. Investors understand that protecting strategic interests sometimes carries economic costs. But assigning responsibility for higher gasoline prices to oil companies ignores how commodity markets function.

Investors Should Focus on the Real Drivers

Ironically, Chevron is benefiting from stronger crude prices that largely reflect geopolitical developments beyond its control. That’s exactly what integrated energy companies are designed to do. Higher oil prices typically expand upstream profits, even if refining margins fluctuate.

For investors, the more important variables remain global supply, OPEC+ production decisions, U.S. shale output, refinery utilization, and geopolitical tensions — not presidential demands directed at corporate executives.

When oil prices rise, retail gasoline follows. When crude falls for a sustained period, wholesale prices decline, and competition gradually pushes pump prices lower. No social media post changes that equation.

Key Takeaway

In short, Trump’s criticism of Chevron shifts attention away from the biggest factor behind today’s gasoline prices. The jump from roughly $2.98 per gallon before the Iran conflict to more than $4 today largely reflects higher crude oil prices driven by geopolitical risk, not decisions made by Chevron or ExxonMobil. Investors should separate political messaging from market mechanics. 

Energy stocks will continue to rise and fall with global oil fundamentals, while consumers will keep paying prices determined primarily by wholesale markets and local station owners — not by directives from Washington.

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If any investor has stood the test of time, it’s Warren Buffett, and with good reason. For 60 years, the “Oracle of Omaha” has had a rock-star-like presence in the investing world, and his annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting has drawn thousands of loyal investors. They were stunned at last year’s meeting when Buffett announced he would step down as CEO of the investment giant at year’s end. While he remains board chair and vows to come to the office every day, he will also continue to have a voice in the day-to-day operations. His pre-announced successor and long-time lieutenant, Greg Abel, assumed the CEO position on January 1, 2026, and will likely direct or have a say in most, if not all, new investments, public or private. Some of these new investments have already been put into place.

Long-time investors and Buffett mavens are familiar with this quote: “His favorite holding for an S&P 500 stock is forever.” So it’s not surprising to report that for all the success and stature Berkshire Hathaway has in the investment world, just four top Dow Jones Industrial companies make up 50% of the fund’s total holdings. While much more concentrated than most portfolio managers would ever consider, the strategy has worked for Berkshire Hathaway investors for years and will likely continue to do so.

Why Do We Cover Berkshire Hathaway Stocks?

Few investors have the results and reputation that Buffett has garnered over the past 60 years. Though he has stepped away from the CEO chair, his impact and investment guidelines are likely to remain in place long after he is gone. While investing has evolved since Buffett took control of Berkshire Hathaway in 1965, buying good companies with products and services recognized worldwide and paying dividends will always remain a timeless approach.

Here are the four Dow Jones Industrials that reside in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. All are Buy-rated at the top Wall Street firms we cover.

American Express

American Express (NYSE:AXP) is an American bank holding company and multinational financial services corporation specializing in payment cards. The stock performed strongly for most of this year but has backed off some and offers a solid entry point with a dividend yield of 0.98%. American Express is a globally integrated payments company that deals with card-issuing, merchant-acquiring, and card network businesses.

The company offers products and services to customers worldwide, including consumers, small businesses, mid-sized companies, and large corporations. Its segments include:

• U.S. Consumer Services, which offers travel and lifestyle services, as well as banking and non-card financing products.
• Commercial Services offers payment, expense management, banking, and non-card financing products.
• International Card Services provides services to international customers, including travel and lifestyle services, and manages certain international joint ventures and its loyalty coalition business.
• Global Merchant and Network Services operates a payments network that processes and settles card transactions, acquires merchants, and provides multichannel marketing programs, capabilities, services, and data analytics.

Berkshire Hathaway owns 151,610,700 shares, 22.2% of American Express’s float, and 14.8% of the portfolio.

J.P. Morgan has an Overweight rating with a $400 target price.

Apple

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) designs, develops, and sells consumer electronics, computer software, and online services, offering a small dividend of 0.31%. It is remarkable that the legacy technology giant, even after a recent fourth-quarter sale of 10 million shares and a surge in sales over the past two years, still holds a 227,917,808-share position that accounts for a stunning 21% of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio, which holds 1.6% of Apple’s stock.

The company offers:

• The iPhone, a line of smartphones
• Mac, a line of personal computers
• iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets
• Wearables, home, and accessories comprising AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, and HomePod

Apple also offers AppleCare support and cloud services, and operates various platforms, including the App Store, which enables customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, videos, games, and podcasts.

In addition, the company offers various services, such as:

• Apple Arcade, a game subscription service
• Apple Fitness+, a personalized fitness service
• Apple Music, which gives users a curated listening experience with on-demand radio stations
• Apple News+, a subscription news and magazine service
• Apple TV+, which offers exclusive original content
• Apple Card, a co-branded credit card
• Apple Pay, a cashless payment service

Morgan Stanley has an Overweight rating with a $364 target price.

Chevron

This American multinational energy company primarily focuses on oil and gas. Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is a safer option for investors looking to position themselves in the energy sector, and it pays a substantial 3.64% dividend, which was raised by 5% earlier this year. The company operates integrated energy and chemicals businesses worldwide. Berkshire Hathaway bought a very well-timed 8 million additional shares in the fourth quarter but sold a massive 46 million shares in Q1. Despite the sale, Berkshire still holds 84,375,856 shares, representing 4.2% of the float and 4.7% of the portfolio.

The company operates in two segments. The Upstream segment is involved in:

• Exploration, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas
• Processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas
• Transportation of crude oil through pipelines, and transportation, storage
• Marketing of natural gas, as well as operating a gas-to-liquids plant

The Downstream segment engages in:

• Refining crude oil into petroleum products
• Marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants
• Manufacturing and marketing renewable fuels
• Transporting crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car
• Manufacturing and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives

It also involves cash management, debt financing, insurance operations, real estate, and technology businesses.

Jefferies has a Buy rating with a $216 target price.

Coca-Cola

Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) is an American multinational corporation founded in 1892. This company remains a top long-time holding of Buffett. Berkshire owns a massive 400 million shares, which is 9.3% of the float and 9.3% of the portfolio. The stock pays a dependable 2.51% dividend.

Coca-Cola is the world’s largest beverage company, offering consumers more than 500 sparkling and still brands. Led by Coca-Cola, one of the world’s most valuable and recognizable brands, the portfolio features 20 billion-dollar brands, including:

• Diet Coke
• Coca-Cola Light
• Coca-Cola Zero Sugar
• Caffeine-free Diet Coke
• Cherry Coke
• Fanta Orange
• Fanta Zero Orange
• Fanta Zero Sugar
• Fanta Apple
• Sprite
• Sprite Zero Sugar
• Simply Orange
• Simply Apple
• Simply Grapefruit
• Fresca
• Schweppes
• Dasani
• Fuze Tea
• Glacéau Smartwater
• Glacéau Vitaminwater
• Gold Peak
• Ice Dew
• Powerade
• Topo Chico
• Minute Maid

Globally, it is the top provider of sparkling beverages, ready-to-drink coffees, juices, and juice drinks. Through the world’s most extensive beverage distribution system, consumers in more than 200 countries enjoy the company’s beverages at a rate of over 1.9 billion servings per day. And remember that the company owns 19.5% of Monster Beverage (NASDAQ:MNST), which continues to deliver strong financial results.

UBS has a Buy rating and a target price of $98.

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Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) enters its July 31 earnings report with 43 consecutive years of dividend growth and a $20 billion annual buyback program. Strong production from Guyana and the Permian, combined with higher oil prices during Q2, could give the energy giant another opportunity to extend its four-quarter earnings-beat streak.

Higher Oil Prices Could Drive Another Earnings Beat

ExxonMobil has beaten EPS four straight quarters. Q1 2026 adjusted EPS came in at $1.16 versus $1.0074, a 15.15% beat, and Polymarket puts an 84.5% probability on another beat on July 31. Golden Pass LNG Train 1 loaded its first cargo in April 2026, Guyana output crossed 900,000 gross barrels per day, and the Permian hit a record 1.8M boed in Q4 2025. WTI traded between $80 and $114 during Q2, providing a strong upstream backdrop.

A 43-Year Dividend Growth Streak Meets a $20 Billion Buyback

Exxon pays a 2.65% dividend yield, and the last hike (4% announced in Q3 2025) extended the 43-year growth streak. Layer the $20 billion 2026 repurchase program (with $4.9 billion executed in Q1) on top of the dividend, and total shareholder yield lands much higher than the visible dividend yield.

Exxon’s Balance Sheet Supports the Valuation

XOM trades at a P/E of 23, an EV/EBITDA of 10.71, and a Price/Book of 2.51. These don’t seem like unreasonable multiples for a business that generated $26.13 billion in free cash flow in 2025 with Debt/Equity of just 0.168 and interest coverage of 56.28x. The stock’s beta sits at just 0.162, making it a low-volatility stock relative to the broader energy sector.

Exxon Looks Stronger Than Chevron on Cash Flow and Valuation

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) trades at a P/E of 32 (versus XOM’s 23), rides a shorter 39-year dividend streak, and reported negative $1.55 billion of free cash flow in Q1 2026 as capex outran operating cash.

Chevron is also investing in recently acquired Hess assets, Guyana, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Permian Basin to support 7% to 10% production growth in 2026. That spending could strengthen future cash flow, but Exxon currently offers the more attractive combination of valuation, reported free cash flow, dividend history, and buyback scale.

The Headline Profit Decline Hides Stronger Underlying Earnings

Exxon’s reported Q1 profit fell sharply, but the headline decline included billions of dollars in derivative timing effects and disruption costs. Excluding those items, underlying earnings increased to $8.77 billion from $7.58 billion. As CEO Darren Woods said on the Q1 call, “This quarter demonstrated that ExxonMobil is a fundamentally stronger company than it was just a few years ago, built to perform through disruption and across market cycles.”

The post The Single Biggest Reason to Buy Exxon Mobil Before July 31st appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

The VistaShares Target 15 Berkshire Select Income ETF (NYSEARCA:OMAH) markets a headline distribution that few equity strategies can match: a 14.9% trailing yield delivered in monthly payments against a share price of $19. OMAH does this by holding the same public companies that anchor Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio, then layering a covered-call overlay on top. Whether that distribution reflects genuine cash flow from those holdings or something more fragile is the relevant question.

How OMAH Generates Its 15% Yield

The underlying dividend yields on those names average well below the fund’s headline number. Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) yields 2.5%, Chevron (NYSE:CVX) yields 3.8%, and American Express (NYSE:AXP) yields roughly 1%. The gap between those cash dividends and OMAH’s 15% target is bridged by selling short-dated call options against the portfolio. The April filing shows short call positions against Apple, Alphabet, Berkshire, Coca-Cola, and Amazon, with premiums collected up front and recycled into the monthly distribution.

Are the Underlying Dividends Actually Safe?

The equity floor under OMAH is genuinely durable. Coca-Cola posted Q1 2026 free cash flow of $1.76 billion, raised the quarterly payout to $0.53, and carries a Dividend King track record. American Express earns $15.87 in trailing EPS against a $3.80 annualized dividend, leaving payout coverage of roughly 4x. Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) grew Q2 net income 27% and just lifted its quarterly dividend to $0.40. Chevron continued its streak of increases, moving the quarterly payout to $1.78, though Q1 free cash flow turned negative on Hess-related working-capital drag.

The one exception is Occidental Petroleum, which cut its dividend 87% in 2020 and pays $0.26 quarterly, still far below the $0.79 pre-COVID level. That risk is small at OMAH’s 6% weighting in the name.

The Options Overlay and the Payout Ratio

The uncomfortable number is the fund’s 305% payout ratio. That reflects a distribution funded largely by option premium and, at times, return of capital rather than accounting earnings. Premium generation depends on volatility. The VIX sits at roughly 19, in the normal 15 to 20 band, and has averaged about 18 over the past year. That environment supports the current call-writing income, but a sustained drop below 15 would compress premiums, and a sharp rally would cap upside on the underlying stocks that OMAH has written calls against.

Total Return and the Verdict

The share price is up 14% over one year and 9% year to date, and layered on top of the roughly 15% distribution, total return has run ahead of Berkshire’s own B shares, which are up 3% over one year. The forward annualized distribution estimate of $2.77 is slightly below the trailing $2.83, hinting that management is calibrating payouts to option income rather than forcing a fixed number.

This portfolio’s distribution is best understood as a synthetic yield, safe as long as volatility stays in a normal band and the Berkshire-style equity book holds its value. The 1% expense ratio is high for a passive-looking product, and investors focused on capital growth over income have historically been better served by owning Berkshire Hathaway directly, while JEPI and SPYI offer similar options-income mechanics on broader indexes with longer track records. OMAH’s performance relative to its underlying inspiration highlights the trade-off between income generation and pure equity appreciation.

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The ALPS Sector Dividend Dogs ETF (NYSEARCA:SDOG) pays a trailing dividend yield of 3.4%, distributing $2.38 per share annually across quarterly payments. SDOG applies the Dogs of the Dow logic to the full S&P 500, isolating the five highest-yielding stocks in each of ten GICS sectors and equal-weighting them.

The question is whether that mechanical yield-chasing produces a durable income stream or concentrates capital in businesses whose dividends are at risk. A holding-by-holding look at SDOG suggests the answer is mostly the former, with two clear exceptions worth understanding.

How SDOG Manufactures Its Yield

Where the Income Actually Comes From

• Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) is the fund’s largest position at 2.49%. The dividend stepped up to $3.45 quarterly, but Q1 2026 free cash flow was negative $291 million against $816 million in dividends paid. That quarter did not cover its payout. Management reaffirmed full-year FCF guidance of $6.5 to $6.8 billion, which would restore coverage, but F-16 program charges and fixed-price contract risk make the H2 recovery a real assumption rather than a given.
• Edison International (NYSE:EIX) yields 4.4% and raised its quarterly to $0.8775, its 22nd consecutive year of dividend growth. Board confidence held even as Southern California Edison extended roughly 1,500 Eaton Fire settlement offers exceeding $500 million. The company targets a 45 to 55% payout of SCE core earnings and expects no new equity issuance through 2030. SB 254 established an $18 billion continuation fund that materially caps utility exposure.
• Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) grew Q1 free cash flow 73% to $687 million, Moody’s upgraded the credit to Baa1, and net debt to adjusted EBITDA fell to 3.6x. The $10.1 billion project backlog is 92% natural gas, giving the 2% dividend hike genuine runway. This is the safest income contributor in the top five.
• Merck (NYSE:MRK) carries a 2.6% yield and $0.85 quarterly payout. GAAP results are distorted by $14.8 billion in Cidara and Terns acquisition charges, but non-GAAP FY26 EPS guidance of $5.04 to $5.16 and KEYTRUDA growth of 12% to $8.03 billion keep cash generation intact. Long-term KEYTRUDA patent exposure is the risk.
• Chevron (NYSE:CVX) delivered its 39th consecutive annual increase and pays $1.78 quarterly. Q1 free cash flow was negative $1.55 billion on $2.9 billion of timing effects, but FY25 free cash flow was $16.6 billion. WTI at $79.20 sits comfortably above breakeven levels for the dividend.

Total Return Alongside the Payout

Yield only matters if the NAV holds up. SDOG is up almost 20% year to date and 27% over the past year at $71. Dividend growth of nearly 9% compounds on top of price appreciation, so shareholders are not paying for yield with capital erosion.

The Verdict

The post The 3.4% Income Play That Beats the Dogs of the Dow Strategy appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) both reported Q1 2026 results on May 1, 2026, right as the war with Iran reshaped global crude flows. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and Brent recently near $90 per barrel, the two American majors are running the same playbook with very different exposure maps.

How the Quarter Landed for Each Business

Exxon posted adjusted EPS of $1.16 versus $1.01 expected on revenue of $85.14 billion, a solid beat despite $706 million in direct Middle East losses and a $3.88 billion mark-to-market drag on unsettled derivatives. Upstream volumes hit 4.6 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, and CEO Darren Woods framed the quarter bluntly: “Events in the Middle East tested that strength with the safety of our people remaining our top priority.”

Chevron’s beat was larger but messier. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.41 versus $0.97 expected, though revenue of $47.56 billion missed by 9.76% and free cash flow flipped to negative $1.55 billion. Curtailments hit its Tamar and Leviathan operations in Israel, and Mike Wirth leaned on the Hess integration and record U.S. throughput to carry the story.

Cash Machine vs. Hemisphere Hedger

Exxon is engineered to convert $100 oil into raw cash. Golden Pass LNG Train 1 shipped its first cargo in April, Guyana output topped 900,000 gross barrels per day, and cumulative structural cost savings since 2019 reached $15.6 billion. Chevron is trading pure upside for geographic insurance. Talks around a $366 billion Iraq-to-Syria pipeline revival aim to bypass Hormuz entirely, and new plays in Libya, Uruguay, and Venezuela widen its Western Hemisphere footprint.

The Next Test Is How Long Brent Stays Elevated

The EIA now expects Brent around $106 per barrel in May and June before easing to $89 by 4Q26, with 10.75 million barrels per day of Middle East production shut in. WTI last traded at $80.77, already off May highs. I will be watching whether Exxon’s LNG cargoes and Permian barrels keep compounding, and whether Chevron’s Hess-era production growth of 15% year over year can offset those Israeli curtailments.

Why I Lean Toward Exxon on This Setup

For me, Exxon is the cleaner Iran-war trade. The 47.24% one-year return against Chevron’s 32.29% reflects tighter operating leverage to crude, and the $20 billion buyback is a real floor. Investors focused on lower operational supply risk and unique Venezuela and Israel optionality may find Chevron’s profile more appealing, especially with a $1.78 quarterly dividend backed by 39 straight years of increases. The key variable for both names is whether Hormuz reopens faster than the EIA expects.

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Energy is back in focus midday Thursday. WTI crude oil is up 6% over the past 24 hours to $91.94 per barrel, and Barron’s reported that WTI briefly hit $100 per barrel earlier today, its first time above $100 in nearly two months, before settling near $91.94. That crude rally is lifting the integrated oil majors across the board.

With oil testing triple digits again, investors are asking a fair question. Among the three most widely held integrated names, ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), and BP (NYSE:BP), which stock has actually dominated in 2026?

The short answer: it’s a close race rather than a blowout, and ExxonMobil stock is narrowly out in front year to date (YTD). All three, however, are riding the same tailwind of firmer crude oil prices.

ExxonMobil Leads the 2026 Pack

ExxonMobil stock is up 31% YTD, the best of the three majors. Investors are paying a P/E ratio of 26x for ExxonMobil shares and collecting a dividend yield of 2.67%, the lowest income yield in the trio.

The fundamentals behind the run are solid. ExxonMobil produced 4.6 million oil-equivalent barrels per day and posted a Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.16, topping estimates by 15%. The company is also executing a $20 billion buyback plan in 2026 and just extended its dividend raise streak to 43 consecutive years.

The trade-off is straightforward. ExxonMobil shares offer the smallest current income stream but the cheapest earnings multiple and the strongest 2026 price performance.

Chevron Sits in the Middle

Chevron stock is up 29% YTD, trailing ExxonMobil by only two percentage points. Chevron shares trade at a P/E ratio of 34x and carry a dividend yield of 3.69%, a middle-ground profile on both valuation and income.

Chevron’s Q1 2026 report was one of its stronger recent showings. Chevron’s adjusted EPS came in at $1.41 versus $0.97 expected, a 45% beat and the sixth straight quarter of topping consensus. Chevron’s production climbed to 3,858 MBOED, up 15% year over year (YoY), boosted by the Hess acquisition that closed last year.

Chevron also returned $2.5 billion via buybacks in Q1 and has paid out more than $5 billion to shareholders for 16 straight quarters. Income investors get more yield in Chevron stock than in ExxonMobil, though they’re paying a richer earnings multiple to get it.

BP Offers the Highest Yield

BP stock is up 27% YTD, the smallest gain of the group. BP is a UK-based oil major that trades in the U.S. as an NYSE-listed ADR, which is why it doesn’t appear in most S&P 500 energy funds. BP shares carry a P/E ratio of 36x and a dividend yield of 4.61%, easily the top yield of the three.

Operationally, BP’s first quarter was strong. BP’s EPS per ADS hit $1.24 versus $0.93 expected, powered by an exceptional oil-trading contribution and higher refining margins. However, BP has suspended its share buyback to prioritize balance-sheet repair, targeting net debt of $14 billion to $18 billion by the end of 2027.

BP stock offers the richest income and the most turnaround optionality under new CEO Meg O’Neill. However, it also carries the highest valuation and the smallest 2026 gain.

ETF Exposure and What to Watch

For investors who prefer a basket, the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE) is the standard vehicle. ExxonMobil is the XLE ETF‘s largest holding at 24%, and Chevron is second at 18%, so the ETF is a top-heavy way to own the two U.S. majors. BP is not held in XLE because it isn’t in the S&P 500, so the fund isn’t a route to BP exposure.

The verdict on the headline: ExxonMobil stock has dominated in 2026, but only just. Chevron stock trails by two points and BP stock by four, and all three are winning primarily because crude oil has rallied. That’s a reminder that these gains depend on a commodity that swung from a 2026 high of $114.58 in April down to the low $70s earlier this month before this week’s rebound.

Investors can pick their trade-off: ExxonMobil for the cheapest multiple and best price action, Chevron for the balanced middle, or BP for income and turnaround upside. The next near-term cue is whether WTI crude oil can hold near $90 into Thursday’s close and whether it can reclaim $100 on a sustained basis, because oil is volatile and cyclical, and today’s tailwind can reverse quickly.

The post At $100 Per Barrel, Which Oil Stock Has Dominated in 2026: ExxonMobil, Chevron, or BP? appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHD) sits at the center of income-focused portfolios for a reason. SCHD tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index, screening for companies with at least 10 years of dividend payments, strong cash-flow-to-debt ratios, and consistent dividend growth. The fund currently offers a 3.2% dividend yield on $1.05 in annual distributions per share, backed by a 55% payout ratio at the fund level.

How SCHD Generates Its Income

Cost drag is minimal, as SCHD charges a 0.06% expense ratio against roughly $100.8 billion in assets, leaving nearly all of the underlying dividend stream intact for shareholders.

Evaluating the Top Holdings

• Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) anchors the safety case. The company just raised its quarterly payout to $0.53 from $0.51, extending a 63-year streak of annual increases. FY2026 guidance calls for roughly $12.2 billion in free cash flow against $8.8 billion in dividends paid in 2025, leaving a meaningful cushion. Coca-Cola’s 28% net margin and 43% return on equity show a business that funds its dividend from operations, not balance-sheet stretching.
• Chevron (NYSE:CVX) raised its quarterly dividend to $1.78, its 39th consecutive annual increase. Q1 2026 free cash flow ran negative on timing effects, but FY2025 delivered $16.6 billion in free cash flow against a dividend load well under half that figure. The 3.8% yield is real, but energy-sector cyclicality means CVX’s payout is durable across cycles while still exposed to oil-price swings.
• Merck (NYSE:MRK) warrants the closest look. Merck lifted its quarterly dividend to $0.85 from $0.81, and the current payout is easily covered by earnings. The complication is structural. KEYTRUDA generates roughly half of pharma revenue and faces a late-decade patent cliff, and Merck has taken on $14.8 billion in combined acquisition charges for Cidara and Terns to diversify. The dividend is safe today; the pipeline transition determines whether growth continues past 2028.
• Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) raised its quarterly dividend to $3.45, supported by a record $194 billion backlog. Q1 2026 free cash flow was negative on working-capital timing, but FY2026 guidance calls for $6.5 to $6.8 billion in free cash flow. Program-execution charges on F-16 and classified work are the recurring risk, but multi-year revenue visibility from the backlog is why the dividend keeps rising.

Total Return Context

Total return matters as much as yield here. SCHD trades at about $33, up 21% year to date and roughly 26% over the past year, with a 55% five-year gain. That total return context matters because the 10-year Treasury is near 4.6% and Fed funds are at 3.75%, both of which yield more than SCHD’s 3.2% payout in cash terms. Investors are accepting a lower current yield in exchange for dividend growth and equity appreciation, and historical numbers show that trade has worked.

The Verdict

The post Why Retirees Are Choosing This $100.8 Billion ETF Over Individual Dividend Stocks appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) has become a case study in how far retail conviction can drift from professional caution. Shares closed at $57.50 on Wednesday, up 39.8% year to date and 6.9% in the past week alone, sitting 14.8% below the 52-week high. Reddit’s aggregate sentiment score for Occidental is currently pinned at 88, a “very bullish” reading held across all 10 measured intervals this week. Wall Street sees the same setup and shrugs.

The Reddit Trade Behind Occidental’s 88 Sentiment Score

Almost the entire retail signal traces back to a single r/options post titled “Oil is going to $150+ OXY $55 Jan 15th 2027 Calls,” which climbed to 228 upvotes and 92 comments before losing traction Wednesday. The thesis is straightforward crude speculation rather than a fundamental case, and it landed as Brent pushed above $94 on U.S. strikes against Iranian targets and Strait of Hormuz tensions.

The bullish framing rests on real business milestones:

• Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.06, comfortably beating the $0.58 consensus.
• Principal debt cut to $13.3 billion from $20.8 billion, funded by the OxyChem sale to Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) that closed January 2.
• Dividend lifted to $0.26 per share, more than 8% higher and doubled over four years.

Analysts Keep Trimming Occidental Price Targets

The sell side is not buying the euphoria. The consensus target is $64.26, but the rating split leans neutral. In the past two weeks, Stephens cut its target to $69 from $73, HSBC to $68 from $73, and Jefferies trimmed to $56. Mizuho still expects a 6% downward bias to Q2 Street EBITDAX and cash flow estimates. On a trailing basis, Occidental trades at a P/E near 77, though the forward multiple compresses to 10, illustrating how much the bull case hinges on crude cooperating.

Chevron Sets the Sober Benchmark

Peer Chevron (NYSE:CVX) runs the same Permian playbook with a higher yield and none of the Buffett-associated retail mystique, which is exactly why Occidental’s Reddit crowd keeps piling in. The wrinkle worth tracking: former CEO Vicki Hollub disposed of 74,178 shares at nearly $59 on June 1, the largest insider sale in the recent window. Retail is trading a $150 oil narrative. Insiders and analysts are trading the earnings report.

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The pitch for the VistaShares Target 15 Berkshire Select Income ETF (NYSEARCA:OMAH) is almost too clever to ignore. You get a portfolio built around Warren Buffett’s publicly disclosed equity book, layered with a monthly cash distribution aiming for a 15% annualized yield. Berkshire Hathaway itself famously pays no dividend, so OMAH is essentially promising to bolt an income stream onto Buffett’s stock picks and hand you a check every month. For retirees who love the holdings but hate the zero yield, it sounds like a workaround Buffett himself refused to build.

Look under the hood, and OMAH does mirror the greatest hits. As of the April 2026 filing, the fund held Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) at 9.97% of net assets, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B) itself at 8.99%, and American Express (NYSE:AXP) at 8.35%, with meaningful slugs of Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY), Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Moody’s (NYSE:MCO), and Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC). That is a recognizable Berkshire silhouette. Total net assets sat near $748.6 million, so this is a real fund with real scale.

Where the 15% Actually Comes From

Here is the part the marketing skims over. Those underlying holdings throw off maybe 1% to 2% in cash dividends. The rest of the 15% target has to come from somewhere, and the somewhere is a short-dated call-writing overlay plus, when the math is short, return of capital. The N-PORT snapshot shows 74 derivative positions, structured as call spreads and outright short calls against the biggest names in the book. Selling calls generates premium. It also caps how much you can participate when a stock rips higher.

The VistaShares prospectus is refreshingly blunt about the rest. Distributions “may include amounts classified as return of capital,” which the document defines as “a return of a shareholder’s invested capital rather than income or profits.” It goes further: “To the extent that distributions exceed the Fund’s total returns, such payments will reduce the Fund’s net asset value.” If the strategy does not earn the 15%, the fund fills the gap by handing you back your own money and calling it a distribution. Do that long enough and NAV grinds lower, which means each future 15% target is being calculated off a smaller base.

What OMAH’s Returns Actually Show

OMAH launched in March 2025. Since inception, the ETF has paid monthly, most recently $0.23138 per share on June 30, 2026, with trailing 12-month distributions totaling $2.83514. On a total-return basis (dividends reinvested), OMAH is up about 16% since its March 5, 2025 launch, and shares closed recently at roughly $19. Over that same stretch, Berkshire’s own B shares are down roughly 4%, so the income overlay has actually rescued a stretch where owning Buffett directly hurt.

Fine. But zoom out and the mechanics still bite. The 0.98% expense ratio is steep for what is, at its core, a Berkshire clone plus a call-writing program. And the capped upside is not theoretical. When AAPL or GOOGL (NASDAQ:GOOGL) runs past the short strike, OMAH surrenders the difference. Over a normal Buffett-holdings decade, that giveback compounds.

Who This Fits, and Who It Fools

OMAH earns a spot in a portfolio only if you truly want monthly cash from a Berkshire-flavored basket and you accept two things. The 15% is a target rather than a guarantee, and part of it is often your own principal being recycled with a nicer label. For a retiree carving out a 5% to 10% income sleeve, that trade can be worth it, particularly in flat years for Berkshire.

For anyone treating the 15% as safe yield or expecting the total return of holding BRK.B outright over a long horizon, look elsewhere. A cheaper large-cap dividend ETF, or simply owning BRK.B and selling shares as needed, will usually get you closer to Buffett’s actual compounding, minus the return-of-capital sleight of hand.

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Dividend Aristocrats have earned their reputation the hard way: through recessions, rate cycles, and oil crashes, they kept raising the payout. The most persuasive proof point in this bundle comes from Federal Realty (NYSE:FRT), which has now stretched its increase streak to 58 consecutive years, the longest in the entire REIT industry. That is the kind of track record that lets passive income do the heavy lifting in a portfolio, and the five names below all lean on cash generation deep enough to keep the checks arriving on schedule.

Realty Income (O)

Realty Income (NYSE:O) yields 4.76% and pays it out monthly, which is exactly the cadence retirees want. The current monthly dividend sits at $0.271 per share, with an annualized rate of $3.252, and the company has now declared 670 consecutive monthly dividends and 114 consecutive quarterly increases since its 1994 NYSE listing.

Dividend safety here rests on AFFO coverage and scale. Q1 2026 AFFO per share came in at $1.13, up 6.6% year over year, and management raised full-year 2026 AFFO guidance to $4.41 to $4.44 per share, comfortably above the annualized dividend. Portfolio occupancy is 98.9% with a rent recapture rate of 103.4%, credit ratings sit at A3 from Moody’s and A- from S&P, and free cash flow yield is 6.30%. The bull case is simple: a diversified net-lease portfolio spanning over 15,500 properties leased to 1,786 clients, with 2026 investment volume guided up to $9.5 billion and new private capital vehicles with Apollo and GIC extending the runway.

The caveat is leverage. Net debt to EBITDA sits at 7.91x and full-year 2025 interest expense reached $1.13 billion against $471.3 million in impairment provisions, so any refinancing shock would pinch AFFO growth.

Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)

Federal Realty is the only REIT Dividend King, riding 58 consecutive years of dividend increases. The current quarterly dividend is $1.13 per share, for an indicated annual rate of $4.52, most recently paid on July 15, 2026.

The safety math is unusually clean for a REIT. Full-year 2026 Core FFO guidance was raised to $7.46 to $7.55 per diluted share, or 5.7% to 6.9% growth, and Q1 2026 Core FFO of $1.88 per share was up 10.6% year over year. That leaves the $4.52 annualized dividend covered many times over on FFO. Portfolio occupancy stood at 93.8% with a leased rate of 96.1%, cash rent spreads hit 13%, and the balance sheet was reinforced by an expanded revolver from $1.25 billion to $1.4 billion. The bull case is a premium, coastal, open-air retail portfolio (Santana Row, Pike & Rose, Assembly Row) whose higher-income consumer base keeps buying through cycles.

The risk is a rising interest expense environment for a REIT that is actively developing. Q4 2025 included a $7.4 million impairment, and refinancing costs could compress coverage if long rates stay sticky.

Chevron (CVX)

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) yields 3.48% and just extended its increase streak to 39 consecutive years. The current quarterly payout of $1.78 per share annualizes to $7.12, and management has now returned more than $5 billion to shareholders for 16 consecutive quarters.

Safety comes from a fortress balance sheet paired with real cash generation. Debt to equity is 0.25, net debt to EBITDA is 1.08x, and interest coverage is 13.70x. Full-year 2025 delivered operating cash flow of $33.9 billion and free cash flow of $16.6 billion, funding $27.1 billion in total shareholder returns. The Hess deal is now integrated, with Q1 2026 production up 15% year over year to 3,858 MBOED and the Permian sitting at 1 million BOE per day. CEO Mike Wirth framed the quarter this way: “This disciplined performance supports dependable cash generation, enabling us to continue returning significant capital to shareholders, while investing in advantaged long-lived assets.”

The caveat is commodity sensitivity. Brent averaged $64 per barrel in Q4 2025 versus $75 the prior year, and Alpha Vantage shows a payout that currently runs above trailing EPS with dividend per share of $6.91 against diluted TTM EPS of $5.74. Cash flow easily covers it, but sustained low crude would test the math.

T. Rowe Price (TROW)

T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ:TROW) offers a yield of 4.31%, backed by a current quarterly dividend of $1.30, up from $1.27 in 2025 and $1.24 in 2024. The annualized forward estimate is $5.20.

The dividend is easily covered. TTM diluted EPS is $9.34 against dividend per share of $5.11, operating margin runs at 37.2%, and return on equity is 18.7%. The balance sheet is debt-free with $3.73 billion in cash and equivalents, and Q1 2026 operating cash flow of $966.3 million funded $629 million returned to shareholders. Multi-asset advisory fees, the fastest-growing segment, rose 12.0% year over year, and AUM finished the quarter at $1.71 trillion. Trading at a forward P/E of 12, income investors get a well-covered payout at a modest multiple.

The caveat is the flows story. Net client outflows were $13.7 billion in Q1 2026 on top of $56.9 billion in full-year 2025, and the effective fee rate slipped to 38.4 bps. The dividend is safe today, but the growth rate depends on stabilizing active equity flows.

Franklin Resources (BEN)

Franklin Resources (NYSE:BEN) yields 3.87%, with a current quarterly dividend of $0.33 per share and an annualized forward rate of $1.32. The dividend has stepped up from $0.31 in early 2024 to $0.32 and now $0.33.

Coverage is anchored by a turnaround that is now visibly showing up in the numbers. Q2 FY2026 EPS came in at $0.71, beating consensus of $0.55, with operating income more than doubling year over year and long-term net inflows of $16.9 billion reversing prior outflows. AUM has climbed to $1.74 trillion as of April 30, 2026, alternatives fundraising totaled $14.3 billion in the quarter, and Canvas custom indexing grew 27% quarter over quarter. CEO Jenny Johnson called out “positive long-term net flows in every region”. Alpha Vantage shows a forward P/E of 11 and TTM operating margin of 17.2%, both supportive of the current payout.

The caveat is Western Asset Management, which still bled $4.1 billion in Q2 net outflows. Until that subsidiary stabilizes, headline flow numbers will keep needing an asterisk.

The Bottom Line

These five Aristocrats attack income from different angles: monthly cadence at Realty Income, the REIT industry’s longest increase streak at Federal Realty, energy cash flow at Chevron, and asset-manager operating leverage at T. Rowe Price and Franklin Resources. Every one is backed by earnings or AFFO that comfortably fund the current payout, and each has already raised the dividend in 2026. For an income investor who wants passive checks to carry the load, the combination of coverage, streak length, and yield here is doing exactly that.

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The ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (CBOE:NOBL) pays a roughly 2% dividend yield built on a portfolio of 70 holdings, each of which has raised its dividend for at least 25 consecutive years. Income investors buy NOBL for a specific promise: that the underlying companies are so entrenched in their markets that quarterly dividend growth continues through recessions, inflation shocks, and rate cycles. That promise faces a test in mid-2026, especially across the five holdings most investors watch as bellwethers for the group.

How NOBL Generates Its Income

The Five Holdings That Anchor the Income Story

• Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) just raised its payout to $1.34 per quarter, marking 64 consecutive years of increases. Q1 free cash flow fell 55% because of litigation charges, but the trailing payout ratio sits at roughly 61% of EPS. Management raised full-year guidance to $100.3 billion to $101.3 billion in revenue, suggesting the cash flow dip reflects timing. The dividend is safe.
• Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) has paid dividends for 136 consecutive years and lifted the payout to $1.0885 quarterly. Free cash flow of $3.03 billion in Q3 FY2026 grew 6.3% year over year, and the company plans roughly $10 billion in dividends this fiscal year. Tariff and commodity costs pressure margins, but P&G’s payout ratio near 62% of TTM EPS provides a cushion.
• Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) generated $1.76 billion of Q1 free cash flow, up 131.9% year over year, against a $0.53 quarterly dividend. Operating margin expanded to 35.0%, and full-year free cash flow is guided to about $12.2 billion. With 60-plus years of raises and a payout ratio near 65%, this is one of the sturdiest income streams in the fund.
• McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) pays $1.86 quarterly and has raised the dividend for roughly 48 straight years. Operating margin of 46.1% and loyalty sales above $38 billion on a trailing basis support the payout. Negative book value from buybacks reflects capital returns rather than distress.
• Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is the wobble in the group. Q1 free cash flow was negative $1.55 billion after unfavorable derivative timing and a legal reserve, and net income fell 37% year over year. The $1.78 quarterly dividend still increased this year, and interest coverage of 13.7 times plus $2.5 billion in Q1 buybacks show the balance sheet is intact. The risk lies in oil price sensitivity.

Total Return and Valuation

The Verdict on NOBL’s Distribution

The distribution is safe. Equal weighting spreads exposure so no single holding can break the income stream, and the average constituent has proven it will defend its dividend across cycles. Chevron’s quarter was weak, but its 1.4% weight limits the drag. Covered-call or high-yield alternatives offer higher current yield, though they sacrifice the growth compounding that has driven NOBL’s decade-long total return. For those prioritizing durable, rising income rather than maximum yield today, the aristocrat blueprint remains one of the more defensible income vehicles available.

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The safety net keeping oil prices from spiking is nearly gone, and one analyst warns that when it runs out, the move could be sudden and severe.

“Crude oil is fast losing its strategic petroleum reserve buffer, and a violent repricing up cannot be discounted until the market sees toned-down rhetoric from both parties,” said June Goh, an analyst at Sparta Commodities. Her warning lands as the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve drops toward a Reagan-era low, right as geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz sits at its highest in years.

A Cushion Draining Toward 1983 Levels

The SPR hit a three-year low of 349.2 million barrels on June 5, 2026, and by July 3 was reported at around 319.5 million barrels. That already surpasses the prior low of 346.7 million barrels set in July 2023 during the Biden administration. Fall much further and the reserve reaches a level not seen since August 1983, when Ronald Reagan was in the White House.

The pace concerns analysts. Since the Iran conflict began, the Trump administration has drained more than 66 million barrels from the reserve as of June 5, and is authorized to release up to 172 million barrels in total. In one week alone, a record 9.92 million barrels were pulled, according to Fortune’s Jordan Blum. This represents rapid emptying of a stockpile meant for genuine emergencies.

Why the Reserve Is Emptying Now

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, straining global oil flows, the administration has leaned on the SPR to keep U.S. exports moving and cap domestic gasoline prices. Pump prices have stayed contained, $3.85 per gallon as of July 13, even after WTI briefly touched $114.58 per barrel in April. But every barrel released is one less cushion for the next shock.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, underscored how unusual the moment is. “It’s a pretty monumental number to hear multidecade lows reached,” he said. “The longer this goes on the fewer tools the administration has in dealing with it and the more risk there is to a slingshot for costs.”

The “Danger Zone” and Where Prices Could Go

UBS has warned of a crude “danger zone” as SPR buffers disappear. On price, Eurasia Group sees oil rising toward $95 a barrel, and TD Securities says $100 a barrel is plausible if physical shortages become obvious. These are scenarios that become more likely as the buffer thins.

The SPR was created after the 1970s Arab oil embargo and peaked at 726.6 million barrels in December 2009. Today, at around 319.5 million barrels, it holds a fraction of that. China now sits on the world’s largest reserve, roughly 1.4 billion barrels, more than four times the current U.S. stockpile.

Energy Equities Have Already Moved

Investors positioned for supply tightness have been rewarded. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) is up 24.1% year to date, Chevron (NYSE:CVX) has climbed 25.28%, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE), where Exxon and Chevron together represent roughly 41% of holdings, is up 30.77%. Both majors flagged Middle East disruptions as material headwinds in their Q1 filings.

A Risk That’s Building

The framing is one of elevated risk. Goh tied the “violent repricing” scenario to the absence of toned-down rhetoric, meaning diplomacy could defuse it. This is danger accumulating quietly. The SPR has been doing heavy lifting to keep gas prices calm through a Middle East conflict. Now it is running low, at the same moment the risks it exists to offset are running high. Whether the market lands softly or violently may come down to what happens next in the Strait of Hormuz.

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Antero Resources (NYSE:AR) has quietly become one of the most strategically attractive assets in U.S. energy. The Appalachian pure-play carries a market cap of roughly $10.3 billion, trades at 11x trailing earnings and an EV/EBITDA of 7.05, yet delivered record production of 3.9 billion cubic feet equivalent per day (Bcfe/d) in Q1, up 13% year over year, with free cash flow of $657 million.

CEO Michael Kennedy laid out the takeover pitch himself: “We have the highest LNG exposure among Appalachian producers, selling 2.3 Bcf per day of production to sales points along the LNG fairway” and “we are the largest producer-exporter of NGLs in the U.S.” With Henry Hub spot at just $3.44 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), Antero still realized $5.57 per million cubic feet (Mcf) on gas, proof of premium export capture. Shares are down 7.9% over the past year to $33.35, well below the analyst target of $48.75. Insiders have been net sellers, with CFO-connected executives disposing of shares near $39 in May.

Ranking the Likely Acquirers, Weakest Case First

4. Chevron: The Longest Shot

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) has the balance sheet at a $366.2 billion market cap, and it recently completed the acquisition of Hess. Its Permian and deepwater focus makes Appalachian gas a stretch, though a Microsoft data-center power joint venture offers only a tenuous strategic link. Antitrust would be easy; strategic fit is the problem.

3. TotalEnergies: Global LNG Trader Angle

TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) grew integrated liquefied natural gas (LNG) sales 10% to 43.9 metric tonnes (Mt) and signed onto Rio Grande LNG Train 4. Antero’s export-linked barrels would feed the French supermajor’s global book. Scrutiny from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) and cultural fit are the main drags.

2. ConocoPhillips: The Serial Acquirer

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), fresh off Marathon Oil integration and targeting $7 billion incremental FCF by 2029, holds 10 MTPA of Port Arthur LNG offtake. Antero’s Gulf-linked gas would plug directly into that portfolio, and COP has proven M&A muscle.

1. EQT: The Obvious Buyer

EQT (NYSE:EQT) is the largest U.S. gas producer at a $30.8 billion market cap, trading at 4.82 EV/EBITDA. CEO Toby Rice has told investors, “accelerating power demand growth in the United States, particularly in Appalachia, is creating incremental opportunities in our backyard.” Geographic overlap, shared LNG contracting, and EQT’s $1.83 billion Q1 free cash flow make this the cleanest fit. Antitrust review would be the main hurdle.

Where Private Equity Fits

Energy-focused private equity firms (EnCap, NGP, Quantum, Blackstone Energy) could bid, but a $10 billion public E&P with an investment-grade credit profile and integrated midstream operations exceeds typical PE sweet spots. PE ranks below Chevron: strategic synergies cannot match EQT’s, and financing costs erode the arbitrage. Keep an eye on the stock as consolidation logic tightens across Appalachia.

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Shares of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) are up 4% Wednesday afternoon to a fresh record of $327, extending a rally that now has Apple stock up 20% year to date (YTD). The move puts Apple on pace for its 15th intraday record of 2026 and lifts the company’s market value to nearly $5 trillion.

Apple has added more than half a trillion dollars in market value this month alone, leading the Dow Jones into mid-July. The move sits on top of a trailing-12-month P/E ratio of 39.67x, a premium multiple that raises the bar for the next leg higher. With shares now flirting with $330, the natural question for Apple investors is what it would actually take to punch through $350.

Catalyst: Citi Lifts AAPL’s Price Target to $365

The immediate spark is a fresh Wall Street endorsement. Citi analyst Asiya Merchant raised her AAPL price target to $365 from $315 on July 13, maintaining a Buy. Her thesis leans on record smartphone share of 25%, continued PC share gains, and pricing power evidenced by management’s gross margin guide of 48% to 49% despite the memory-chip shortage squeezing rivals that buy on the spot market.

Services stickiness is the other pillar. Apple posted an all-time Services revenue record of $30.98 billion in Q2 FY2026, alongside iPhone revenue of $56.99 billion and revenue growth of 17% year over year (YoY). A smarter Siri, framed as the tool that keeps users inside the ecosystem, is Citi’s perceived mechanism for compounding that recurring revenue.

What Would It Take for AAPL to Hit $350?

From here, $350 is another meaningful leg higher, and the model math tells a nuanced story. Our internal framework pegs a base-case one-year target of $359 with a BUY rating and 10% upside, with a bull case of $411 and a bear case of $305. Citi is at $365, and JPMorgan sits at $345.

The tension is that Wall Street’s average target is only $317, which is already below where Apple stock trades. Apple has effectively run past the consensus estimate, so a move to $350 requires the bullish drivers to keep delivering: iPhone 17 momentum, Services growth in the mid-teens, and margin expansion despite input-cost headwinds. The prediction markets echo the caution, with only a 0.395 probability of AAPL hitting $344 during July.

The bear case is worth noting for AAPL stock. It rests on the premium 39.67x valuation, that below-market consensus target, memory-cost pressure that could compress product gross margin, softer smartphone and PC end markets, and Apple’s recently filed lawsuit against OpenAI over alleged trade-secret theft. Investors weighing their position sizes should treat $350 as achievable but not automatic.

Peers and the Broader Rally

Apple stock isn’t moving alone atop the Dow. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) are the index’s other July leaders for very different reasons. Goldman Sachs stock is up 30% YTD after posting record Q2 2026 diluted EPS of $20.98, and Chevron stock is up 19% YTD on the crude oil recovery.

Mega-cap tech is broadly participating, including NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), with NVIDIA stock up 13% YTD on sustained AI-infrastructure demand. For diversified exposure with Apple as a top holding, the NASDAQ 100 tracking Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) captures the mega-cap-tech theme, though the ETF remains concentrated in a handful of names, which cuts both ways when leadership narrows.

What to Watch

The next real test comes fast. Apple reports its Q3 FY2026 earnings on July 30, with the consensus estimate calling for EPS of $1.88, up 20% YoY. Citi frames the iPhone 18 launch in September as the key sentiment inflection for the second half, and Polymarket assigns a 97% probability that the launch happens this year.

Investors can watch for whether Apple’s gross margin guidance holds through the memory-cost squeeze, whether Services stays in the mid-teens growth zone, and whether the pace of the $100 billion buyback authorization keeps supporting the tape. Given the roughly 39x multiple and a consensus target sitting below the stock, investors should consider keeping their AAPL stock position sizes modest and adding on pullbacks rather than chasing record closes. A move to $350 is well within reach if the bullish drivers keep firing, but it’s the July 30 earnings report, not today’s tape, that could decide whether this rally will persist in the long run.

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Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment is a floor, not a raise. The 2026 Social Security COLA is 2.8%, which means retirees leaning on that check for real spending power need income streams that clear that bar without breaking a sweat. The three names below all pay yields that top 2.8%, and each one carries a dividend record long enough to matter. Safety, not yield chasing, is what qualifies them here.

Realty Income (NYSE: O)

Realty Income (NYSE:O) is the net lease REIT that has branded itself “The Monthly Dividend Company,” and the branding is earned. The current yield sits at 5.12%, and shareholders collect it in twelve installments rather than four. The most recent monthly declaration was $0.271, with an annualized forward estimate of $3.252.

On safety, the coverage math works. Realty Income’s 2026 AFFO guidance sits at $4.41 to $4.44, implying 3.0% to 3.7% growth, against an annualized dividend of $3.246. That leaves clear headroom on the funds available to pay the distribution. Portfolio occupancy stands at 98.9% with rent recapture of 103.4%, and Q1 2026 AFFO per share of $1.13 rose 6.6% year over year. Balance sheet leverage improved to Net Debt to Annualized Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDAre of 5.2x from 5.4x. The dividend track record is the headline: 670 consecutive monthly dividends declared and 114 consecutive quarterly increases, confirmed by an unbroken monthly dividend history going back to at least 1999, spanning 27 years.

The bull case for an income investor is simple: a monthly check that has been raised, in small increments, essentially every quarter, backed by a diversified global net lease portfolio and an $9.5 billion 2026 investment volume guide. Shares are up 16.81% year to date, so total return is showing up alongside the payout.

The caveat: interest expense and impairments remain a live headwind. Q1 2026 carried $129.3 million in impairment provisions and interest coverage of only 1.42x. That is the price of running a leveraged real estate model in a higher-rate world.

Verizon (NYSE: VZ)

Verizon (NYSE:VZ) is the ultra-high-yield name in this trio. The current yield reads 6.66%, comfortably above the 6% threshold and roughly triple the COLA benchmark. The quarterly dividend was raised to $0.7075 from $0.69, with an annualized forward estimate of $2.83.

Safety here is about cash generation, not accounting earnings. 2026 adjusted EPS guidance sits at $4.95 to $4.99, up 5% to 6%, and 2026 free cash flow guidance is $21.5 billion or better, up roughly 7% year over year. That FCF envelope easily covers the dividend commitment plus the $2.5 billion in Q1 2026 buybacks, on pace for $3 billion or more this year. On the track record, the dividend has been paid quarterly without interruption for 27+ years, with the current $0.7075 quarterly rate up from $0.665 in Q3 2024.

The bull case is a turnaround with proof points. Under CEO Dan Schulman, Verizon posted its first positive Q1 postpaid phone net adds since 2013, and the Frontier acquisition expanded the fiber footprint past 30 million homes. Income investors get a real yield on a business that finally shows subscriber traction. If you are building a paycheck-style portfolio around names like this, our From $250K to $1,500 a Month research walks through how high-yield telecom, REIT, and energy income can be layered on top of Social Security.

The caveat is the balance sheet. Total debt sits at $172.5 billion with net unsecured debt leverage at 2.6x after the Frontier deal. Add churn ticking up to 0.97% and ARPA slipping 1.9% year over year, and integration risk is real. The yield gets paid, but debt servicing capacity is what income holders should keep watching.

Chevron (NYSE: CVX)

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) rounds out the group with the lowest headline yield of the three but arguably the sturdiest income structure. The current yield reads 3.97%, still comfortably ahead of the 2.8% COLA. The quarterly dividend was raised 4% to $1.78 per share, verified in the payment schedule showing $1.78 quarterly in 2026 versus $1.71 in 2025 and $1.63 in 2024.

On safety, the balance sheet does the heavy lifting. Debt to equity of 0.25, net debt to EBITDA of 1.08, and interest coverage of 13.7x is fortress-level for an integrated oil major. Cash generation backs the payout: FY 2025 operating cash flow was a record $33.9 billion with free cash flow of $16.6 billion, and Chevron returned $27.1 billion to shareholders in 2025, including $12.1 billion in buybacks. Q1 2026 buybacks of $2.5 billion marked the 16th consecutive quarter of returning $5 billion or more annually. On the track record, this is the 39th consecutive annual dividend increase, and the dividend history data confirms an uninterrupted quarterly payment pattern with no year-over-year decreases across the entire 27-year dataset.

The bull case: a dividend grower with a real production tailwind. Q1 2026 production hit a record 3,858 MBOED, up 15% year over year, on the back of Hess integration and Permian scale, with structural cost cuts targeting $3 to $4 billion by end of 2026. Shares are up 21.81% year to date, so the dividend is being paid on rising equity value, not falling.

The caveat is what it always is with an oil major: commodity prices set the tone. Q1 2026 net income fell 37% year over year, and free cash flow ran negative at -$1.55 billion on working capital timing. The FCF profile easily supports the dividend across a cycle, but a single quarter can look ugly when crude prices roll over.

The Bottom Line

These three names give income investors three different ways to clear the 2.8% COLA hurdle. Realty Income delivers the monthly cadence and the longest unbroken payment record. Verizon delivers the fattest yield and a real FCF cushion behind it. Chevron delivers the strongest balance sheet and the most robust dividend growth streak of the group. Different engines, same job: paying a check that grows faster than the government’s inflation adjustment.

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US gasoline prices spent the spring of 2026 on a rollercoaster driven by Middle East supply disruptions. The FRED weekly regular gasoline series peaked at $4.50 per gallon on May 11 before easing to $3.78 by July 6, just ahead of the July Fourth holiday. Prices edged back up to about $3.85 the following week, and even after the pullback, they remained elevated, sitting around the 72nd percentile of their trailing 52-week range. For energy stocks, that keeps the setup constructive without looking overheated: consumers got some relief at the pump, but with Middle East tensions on again, off again, gasoline prices are still volatile enough to support margins across parts of the refining and integrated oil trade.

1. Valero Energy (VLO)

Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) is the purest bet on wider crack spreads. As a stand-alone refiner, gasoline and distillate margin expansion can flow quickly to earnings. Refining is a bright spot. Q1 2026 refining operating income swung to $1.8 billion from a $530 million loss a year earlier, and US Gulf Coast distillate margins jumped to $27.60/bbl versus $16.69/bbl in Q1 2025. EPS of $4.22 beat the $3.16 consensus.

On the earnings call, Valero COO Gary Simmons flagged “distillate inventories at five-year lows” and US product exports up 470,000 barrels a day year over year as factors helping keep crack spreads wide. VLO shares are up 81.9% year to date, trading at a forward P/E of 10.

Risk: the idled Benicia refinery and a March fire in the diesel hydrotreater at Port Arthur.

2. Phillips 66 (PSX)

Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) captures refining upside alongside a midstream fee stream that softens volatility. Worldwide realized refining margins expanded to $10.11/bbl in Q1 2026 versus $6.81/bbl a year earlier, and adjusted EBITDA hit $1.27 billion versus $736 million in Q1 2025. Adjusted Q1 EPS of $0.49 handily beat the -$0.39 consensus, though $839 million in mark-to-market derivative losses masked the physical margin strength.

CEO Mark Lashier said the firm is positioned to “navigate market volatility due to our integrated business and strength of our balance sheet.”

Shares are up 55.0% year to date. Debt-to-cap climbed to 48% from 39% after the WRB and Lindsey acquisitions, so leverage is the offset to margin upside.

3. Exxon Mobil (XOM)

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) benefits at both ends of the barrel: upstream realizations and refining crack spreads. Underlying Q1 earnings hit $8.8 billion excluding some items versus $7.58 billion a year earlier, with the Energy Products segment alone delivering $2.8 billion excluding certain items, up $2 billion year over year. Production reached 4.6 million oil-equivalent bpd.

CEO Darren Woods warned “there is more to come if the Strait remains closed.” Golden Pass LNG Train 1 shipped its first cargo in April, adding roughly 5% to US LNG exports versus 2025.

Shares are up 20.3% year to date with a 2.99% dividend yield backed by 43 straight years of increases. This ranks alongside coverage in our Wealth Blueprint reports on dividend-anchored energy compounders.

4. Chevron (CVX)

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) combines Permian scale with the newly integrated Hess assets. Worldwide production hit 3,858 MBOED, up 15% year over year, and US output topped 2 million bpd for a third straight quarter. Q1 adjusted earnings of $1.41 per diluted share beat the $0.97 estimate, though $2.9 billion in unfavorable hedging results weighed on GAAP results. CEO Mike Wirth is expanding equity crude into refineries to over 40% in Asia and north of 50% in the US, which could deliver a structural margin lift.

CVX YTD return is 19.4%, with a 3.9% dividend yield and 39 consecutive annual hikes.

5. ConocoPhillips (COP)

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is the pure upstream play with no refining hedge, giving it the cleanest crude and natural gas price sensitivity. Henry Hub averaged $5.05/MMBTU in Q1 2026 versus $3.65 a year earlier, lifting Q1 adjusted EPS to $1.89 versus a $1.69 estimate. Total realized price was $50.36/BOE. Marathon Oil integration is delivering over $1 billion in run-rate synergies, and management targets $7 billion in incremental free cash flow by 2029.

COP shares are up 18.6% year to date. The 2026 production guidance excludes Qatar due to Middle East uncertainty, leaving geopolitics as the key risk.

Conclusion

The common thread is supply tightness: The EIA estimates that global oil inventories fell by an average of 5.1 million bpd in Q2 2026 and are expected to drop by another 2.2 million bpd in Q3, even as Middle East production and exports recover. Brent implied volatility has averaged 78% since the conflict began. Refiners with heavy sour flexibility (VLO, PSX) capture the widest crack spreads, integrated majors (XOM, CVX) monetize both ends, and COP offers the highest upstream beta. The counter-risk is speed of resolution: WTI pulled back 26.2% over the past month to below $70/barrel, before its latest rally, a reminder that geopolitical premiums can compress as quickly as they expand.

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For much of 2026, investors have been able to focus on artificial intelligence, earnings growth, and record stock prices. Energy markets, meanwhile, have remained relatively calm lately despite lingering geopolitical risks. That calm is now fading. 

President Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran over as the U.S. resumed strikes against targets inside Iran after Tehran began targeting vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran just announced the Strait of Hormuz is closed “until further notice.” The conflict appears to be entering a broader phase, and while no one knows how long it will last, the world’s most important oil chokepoint has once again become the market’s center of attention.

Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters So Much

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), roughly 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day. That’s close to 20% of global petroleum consumption and around one-third of all seaborne oil trade.

Even a temporary disruption can ripple across the global economy because there are few alternative shipping routes capable of replacing that capacity.

^{Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration}

Iran has repeatedly threatened to disrupt shipping through the strait during previous conflicts. Now that commercial vessels are reportedly being targeted while the U.S. expands military operations, traders must begin pricing in a higher probability of supply interruptions — even if those disruptions never fully materialize.

That uncertainty alone can lift crude prices. Oil prices have moved from the mid-$60 to $70 a barrel range back into the $70 per barrel range again. Brent crude goes for around $76, while West Texas Intermediate — the benchmark for the U.S. economy — is above $71 a barrel.

Higher Oil Prices Reach Far Beyond the Gas Pump

Oil rarely stays confined to the energy sector. It works its way into transportation costs, manufacturing, agriculture, airlines, and consumer prices.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that energy accounts for about 6% of the Consumer Price Index, but its indirect influence stretches much further because nearly every product requires transportation.

If Brent crude were to climb back above $100 per barrel, businesses would face higher input costs while consumers would spend more on gasoline and utilities. That combination can slow discretionary spending just as many economists expected inflation to continue easing.

Ironically, oil-producing companies would likely benefit first. Integrated producers such as Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) generate stronger cash flow when crude prices rise, while oil service companies often see increased drilling activity if elevated prices persist. Conversely, airlines, cruise operators, trucking companies, and many industrial manufacturers typically see profit margins narrow as fuel expenses rise.

Granted, markets have weathered geopolitical crises before without lasting economic damage. Strategic petroleum reserves, rising U.S. shale production, and additional output capacity from OPEC members could soften the blow if supply disruptions prove temporary.

Key Takeaway

In short, investors shouldn’t assume this is merely another geopolitical headline. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical energy arteries, and renewed fighting between the United States and Iran raises the odds that oil prices become an economic story rather than simply an energy story.

That doesn’t mean a recession is inevitable or that investors should abandon diversified portfolios. Regardless, it does mean energy prices deserve renewed attention. If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz becomes materially disrupted, inflation could reaccelerate, corporate profits could come under pressure, and market volatility would likely increase. For smart investors, monitoring crude oil is once again becoming just as important as watching quarterly earnings.

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Less than a month in, the US-Iran ceasefire is starting to look like a pause between rounds. Earlier this week, Washington struck more than 80 Iranian targets in response to attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the US Treasury revoked the sanctions waiver that had allowed Iranian oil sales, and Tehran claims it hit back at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Brent climbed 2.7% to $76 a barrel on the news, as reported on Bloomberg’s Daybreak Europe by Abeer Abu Omar.

For a market that had spent the spring pricing in a return to normal after Brent touched $138.21/bbl on April 7, the message is clear. The risk premium is not going anywhere.

The Escalation and Why It Matters Now

Before the waiver was pulled, Iran was moving roughly 1% to 2% of global oil supply. That volume now goes offline. LNG traffic has largely stopped transiting the Strait on shipping caution, which rattles the tanker market. The EIA’s May Short-Term Energy Outlook already flagged this scenario, warning that even after flows resume, it will take until late 2026 or early 2027 for most pre-conflict production and trade patterns to resume.

Camille de Courcel of BNP Paribas argued there is “no return to pre-war levels” for oil, and that is precisely why central banks remain cautious.

Energy Stocks Are Repricing the Risk Premium

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is up 3.7% over the past 5 days, trading around $174.7. That reaction sits atop a Q1 in which CEO Mike Wirth flagged “heightened geopolitical volatility and related supply disruptions,” and Chevron delivered adjusted EPS of $1.41, beating expectations of $0.97. Chevron has direct exposure to Israel through its Tamar and Leviathan gas fields, so the headline risk cuts both ways.

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) is flat over the past 5 days and 31.56% higher over the past year. Exxon absorbed a $706 million hit tied to Middle East supply disruptions in Q1, disclosed in its May 8-K filing, and CEO Darren Woods argued the company is “built to perform through disruption and across market cycles.” On Reddit’s r/wallstreetbets, retail sentiment on XOM has been running bullish in 7 of 9 snapshots this week, concentrated in a thread titled “What is going on with Oil prices?”

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) yanked Qatar from its 2026 guidance, a 20 MBOED annual adjustment. The stock is up 3.9% over the past week. Pure-play upstream names carry the cleanest leverage to Brent staying north of $80, though they also carry operational headaches when tankers stop moving.

The counter-play is Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC), whose crude sourcing is “insulated from ongoing Middle East supply pressures.” Marathon is up 69.6% year to date, and Q1 blended refining margins expanded to $17.74 per barrel from $13.38 a year earlier. Refiners gain wider crack spreads when input volatility punishes competitors who cannot pivot.

Then there is Cheniere Energy (NYSE:LNG), which raised 2026 EBITDA guidance to $7.25 to $7.75 billion after exporting a record 187 LNG cargoes in Q1. CEO Jack Fusco argued, “the elevated volatility in global energy markets today further signals the need for additional investment in reliable, secure LNG capacity.” The stock is up 6.69% this week alone.

What This Does to the Rate-Cut Story

The Fed has held at up to 3.75% since December 10, 2025, seven months of patience while inflation refused to fully behave. The energy component of PCE ran 24.26% year-over-year in May 2026, a stunning swing from the -3.77% deflation posted in May 2025. Headline PCE is now at 4.07% YoY. Core PCE, at 3.41%, lets doves sleep, arguing the shock is an energy story rather than a wage story. That argument holds only if oil comes down. If Brent camps above $80 and gasoline climbs off the recent $3.78 print, the case for further cuts thins fast. The 10-year Treasury already reflects this.

Watch two things into the back half of July. First, whether Iran actually loses its export flows or finds another gray-market outlet, because that determines how tight the barrel math gets. Second, whether the Fed’s July meeting language shifts on energy pass-through. A ceasefire that cracks moves oil and the entire duration trade underneath every stock in your portfolio.

The post Oil Is Spiking and the Iran Ceasefire Is Cracking: What It Means for Your Stocks appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Warren Buffett spent decades assembling Berkshire Hathaway’s equity book around a simple principle: Own high-quality businesses that produce predictable cash flow and share it with owners. Three of the longest-tenured holdings in that portfolio, Coca-Cola, American Express, and Chevron, all pushed their dividends higher over the past six months, and each offers a distinct income and growth profile heading into the back half of 2026. Here’s why July is a reasonable window for investors to examine each one.

Coca-Cola (KO)

Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) has been the archetypal Buffett income holding for decades, and the fundamentals still look sturdy. The company delivered $816 million in dividend income to Berkshire in 2025 alone, on a cost-basis yield that Berkshire’s disclosures pegged at 65%. That is what compounding at scale looks like.

Q1 2026 results reinforced the thesis. Coca-Cola posted EPS of 86 cents against the 81 cents expected, with revenue of $12.47 billion up 12.1% year over year and organic revenue growth of 10%. Operating margin expanded to 35.0% from 32.9%, and Coca-Cola Zero Sugar volume grew 13%. Management guided FY2026 organic revenue growth to 4-5% and comparable EPS growth to 8-9%.

The current quarterly dividend sits at 53 cents per share, up from 51 cents in 2025, extending a streak of annual increases that now stretches back more than six decades. Shares traded around $83.93 on July 8, up more than 21% year to date. The forward P/E of 26 is not cheap and a dividend yield of 2.53% reflects that.

The risk: FX headwinds, a $960 million BODYARMOR impairment, and roughly 4% headwind from divestitures including the pending Coca-Cola Beverages Africa sale can weigh on reported growth even as the underlying business hums.

American Express (AXP)

American Express (NYSE:AXP) is the growth engine of the Buffett dividend trio. The company recently raised its quarterly dividend from $0.82 to $0.95 per share, roughly a 16% bump, and Berkshire collected $479 million in AXP dividend income during 2025 on a 44% cost-basis yield. The stock has gained nearly 125% since the start of 2023, elevating its weight in Berkshire’s equity portfolio.

Q1 2026 numbers were strong across the board. AXP reported EPS of $4.28 versus $3.99 expected, revenue of $18.91 billion, and net income of $2.97 billion, up 15%. Billed business hit $428.0 billion, and card member spending climbed 10%, the highest quarterly growth in three years. Net card fee revenues grew double digits for a 30th consecutive quarter. The write-off rate improved to 2.0% from 2.1%. Management reaffirmed FY2026 guidance of 9% to 10% revenue growth and EPS of $17.30 to $17.90.

CEO Stephen J. Squeri said, “We had a very strong start to the year, reflecting continued momentum across our premium customer base.” Shares traded around $337.34 on July 8 after an 8.02% rally over the past month, with a forward P/E of 20 and analyst target of $366.58.

The risk: Macro and geopolitical uncertainty, potential credit card interest rate caps, and rising variable engagement costs could compress margins if premium spending slows.

Chevron (CVX)

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is the highest-yielding name in this group and the one most tied to the commodity cycle. The quarterly dividend was recently raised to $1.78 per share, up from $1.71, extending a 39-year streak of annual increases. Trailing yield sits near 4.08%.

Q1 2026 marked Chevron’s sixth consecutive EPS beat. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.41 versus 97 cents expected, a 45.56% beat. Worldwide net oil-equivalent production jumped 15% to 3,858 MBOED, powered by the Hess acquisition and record U.S. output above 2 million bpd for a third straight quarter. Chevron repurchased $2.5 billion in Q1, its 16th consecutive quarter returning more than $5 billion to shareholders. In 2025 alone, the company returned $27.1 billion to shareholders.

Wolfe Research upgraded CVX to Outperform with a $210 price target on July 6, citing Guyana as a near-term free cash flow catalyst. CEO Mike Wirth said, “Chevron delivered solid first quarter performance, underscoring the resilience of our portfolio and the value of disciplined execution.” Shares traded around $175.66 on July 8, still up nearly 13% year to date despite a roughly 17% pullback from their 2026 high.

The risk: Citigroup sees Brent falling to $60–$65/barrel by year-end, and Goldman Sachs forecasts a 3 million bpd global oil surplus by 2027. Political friction in California and Venezuela operational uncertainty add to the volatility.

What to Watch Next

Each of these Berkshire mainstays offers a different flavor of the same underlying thesis: durable brands, disciplined capital returns, and dividends that keep climbing. Coca-Cola gives defensive stability, American Express supplies dividend growth with premium-consumer torque, and Chevron delivers the highest current yield with commodity optionality. Upcoming Q2 earnings reports across all three will be the next major test.

The post 3 Warren Buffett Dividend Stocks to Buy in July appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Fresh tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz prompted the US Treasury Department to revoke a waiver allowing Iranian oil sales, and WTI crude jumped more than 5% on the news. Don Striven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, reframed this on Bloomberg Radio around three calls that extend well past a single price spike.

The ‘Staggering’ China Number

Striven’s anchor point: China’s crude import demand is down a staggering 5 million barrels per day year over year, a 50% drop. Oil flows from the Persian Gulf have recovered to roughly 75% of normal (including pipelines), but demand is not recovering at the same pace. Goldman expects about 90% of that demand weakness to unwind in coming quarters, but the remaining 10% may be permanent.

“I think the largest oil supply shock ever, the Hormuz shock, will validate the Chinese strategy to diversify into other energy sources and to continue to stockpile,” Striven said. Even if Hormuz fully reopens, China may structurally reduce dependence on imported crude.

Why the Recovery May Disappoint

Striven warned that “Markets had priced in perhaps with excessive confidence the recovery in supply and perhaps extrapolated to the base case of surplus in 2027. But it’s still a highly uncertain environment.” Iran sanctions, Strait management, and regional investment remain unresolved. Goldman separately warned Hormuz tanker traffic may recover only to ~70% of pre-war levels as producers permanently reroute via pipelines. JPMorgan commodities head Natasha Kaneva added: “The barrels now exiting Hormuz increasingly have nowhere to go except China. But China is not buying.”

Current pricing reflects that ambiguity. WTI closed at $71.87/barrel on June 29, 2026, and Brent at $71.59, both well off April’s spike above $138.

EV Acceleration Is the Structural Threat

EV share of global car sales has risen ~4 percentage points since the start of the Iran war. Goldman’s June 21 note pegged global EV penetration at 26.1% of new passenger car sales in May 2026, its second-highest level ever, with China accounting for more than 60% of the increase and Chinese EV adoption up 11.4 percentage points since February. Chinese EV heavy truck sales grew 45% year over year in Q1 2026, and CATL predicted half of China’s heavy truck sales could be electric by 2028. Goldman’s “Persistent Acceleration” scenario has current-pace EV adoption cutting global oil demand by 0.32 million bpd by December 2027, with Brent potentially falling to the mid-$50s per barrel.

The AI Power Pivot: Striven’s Top Call

Striven’s favored commodity is US power, specifically PJM markets like Virginia, which hosts roughly a quarter of global data centers. Data center power demand is projected to double by end of 2027. “It’s this beautiful intersection from an investor perspective of very rapid demand growth… and very fixed supply. It’s very difficult to add power supply. The queues for gas turbines are 5 to 10 years,” Striven said. PJM forecast a record 166 gigawatt load during the July heat dome, underscoring the tightness.

Copper was his second pick, with over 50% of demand tied to electrification, offering dual exposure to EVs and AI power buildout.

Investor Exposure Map

Oil-demand bears. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) sit closest to the China thesis. XOM’s forward P/E of 12 and CVX’s 12 signal analysts expect earnings compression. Chevron’s Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.41 beat estimates even as revenue slipped year over year. Integrated peers BP and Shell face similar demand math.

Power bulls. Vistra (NYSE:VST) is the largest independent producer in PJM at 13.9 GW, with 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.80 billion to $7.60 billion and Meta PPAs at PJM nuclear sites. Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG) carries 20.3 GW in PJM, is nuclear-heavy, and posted quarterly revenue growth of 63.8% year over year after closing Calpine. Talen Energy has 13.1 GW in PJM plus a dedicated campus for Pennsylvania data centers.

Copper and EV materials. Freeport-McMoRan, the largest publicly traded copper producer, screens as a direct electrification beneficiary. Albemarle (NYSE:ALB) is the lithium proxy: quarterly revenue growth of 32.7% year over year and an ALB analyst target price of $209.71 vs. a July 7 close of $129.02. BYD and CATL dominate the demand side but sit outside US exchanges.

What Investors Should Watch

The Hormuz story began as a supply shock. Striven reframes it as a demand story with a permanent tail: a China that stockpiles, diversifies, and electrifies faster than the forward curve assumes. If even 10% of the 5 million bpd drop is structural, and if EV penetration keeps climbing at May’s pace, the oil market pricing into 2027 may not resemble the one investors underwrote before the war. Keep an eye on Chinese import data, PJM capacity auctions, and Brent’s ability to hold above the mid-$50s scenario Goldman has now put on the table.

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Shares of Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) are up 4% at midday Wednesday, trading at $53.90. The move puts Occidental well ahead of integrated peers ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX).

ExxonMobil stock is off 1% at $140.51, essentially flat. Meanwhile, Chevron shares are higher by 1% to $176.07, a modest gain that trails Occidental by a wide margin on the session.

The gap reflects a company-specific catalyst layered on top of a broad energy tailwind. Occidental has both today, while the oil majors ExxonMobil and Chevron have only one catalyst.

Evercore Upgrade and Crude Spike Drive OXY

Evercore ISI upgraded Occidental stock to Outperform from In-Line, with analyst Stephen Richardson lifting his OXY price target to $65 from $58. The firm’s thesis leans on deleveraging and capital efficiency rather than production growth.

Evercore projects that Occidental’s free cash flow per share to grow 8% annually through 2030 at a flat $75 WTI crude oil, with a potential resumption of share buybacks in the second half of 2028. That framing lands well against Occidental’s Q1 2026 earnings report, which delivered an 80% adjusted EPS beat and $7.10 billion in principal debt repaid.

The second factor is the crude oil price. WTI crude oil is up 6% over the past 24 hours to $74.58 per barrel, driven by renewed threats of U.S. military strikes tied to Iran and Strait of Hormuz disruption. Occidental Petroleum carries the highest oil-price beta among U.S. majors, which amplifies the move.

Peers Get the Oil Lift, Not the Upgrade

ExxonMobil and Chevron shares are participating in the crude rally, just without a company-specific driver to match Evercore’s Occidental call. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE), a broad energy ETF that holds all three names, is up 1%. ExxonMobil and Chevron together account for a heavy 41% of the ETF, so the fund’s muted move mirrors the majors.

Chevron stock did get a bullish note earlier this week: Wolfe Research upgraded Chevron stock to Outperform with a $210 target, citing Guyana growth and sustainable cash generation. Yet, the enthusiasm was partially offset by Mizuho’s price target cut on ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) on capex concerns that spilled across the group.

ExxonMobil’s recent re-domiciliation to Texas was largely viewed as administrative, offering little to no sentiment lift. Other oil-levered names are also participating in today’s sector bid, but they don’t share Occidental Petroleum’s specific catalyst today.

Bull and Bear Views on OXY Stock

The bull case leans on the deleveraging story and Berkshire Hathaway’s ownership footprint. Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK-B) remains a major Occidental backer, and Evercore’s $65 target is roughly in line with the $65.30 average analyst target.

The bear case matters too. Evercore itself flagged that Occidental’s free cash flow growth trails Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ:FANG), ConocoPhillips, and Chevron. The analyst rating mix still skews to Hold (14 Holds versus 8 Buys), and Occidental stock was still down 9% over the past month heading into today. Investors may want to keep their position sizes measured given crude’s volatility.

What to Watch

The $65 target sits below Occidental stock’s 2026 high of $67 from late March, so the remaining upside after today’s gain is narrower. Traders can watch for whether OXY holds above $53 into the close and how crude oil settles as Strait of Hormuz headlines evolve. The next scheduled event is Occidental’s Q2 2026 earnings on August 5.

Positioning matters here. Today’s move rewards investors who were already long the most oil-levered major heading into the crude spike, but chasing after a 4% single-session gain carries obvious risk if Middle East tensions cool or if the Evercore thesis gets faded by other desks.

For investors weighing the oil majors, the setup remains a choice between Occidental’s upside torque to crude and the steadier, dividend-anchored profiles of ExxonMobil and Chevron. Today’s tape favors the former, but a single session doesn’t settle that debate.

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The Number

With oil now trading well below the $100 level (and seemingly poised to continue heading lower, after OPEC announced further production increases recently and recessionary concerns pick up), it’s unclear where certain oil stocks are headed.

One such name that’s on my radar right now just reported its Q1 2026 earnings in early May – Chevron (NYSE:CVX). With the company posting adjusted earnings of $1.41 per share against a $0.97 consensus (a 45.56% beat), there’s plenty to seemingly like about this company’s growth trajectory in a lower oil price environment.

Let’s dive into what these results mean for the average investor.

What It Means

This recent earnings beat rested on operational strength as much as on crude prices. Chevron’s average Brent realization in the quarter came in at $81 per barrel versus $76 a year earlier, a modest tailwind. The volume story did the heavy lifting. Worldwide net oil-equivalent production reached 3,858 MBOED, up 15% year over year, powered by the company’s high-profile Hess acquisition. U.S. output cleared 2 million barrels per day for the third consecutive quarter, a company record.

Reported net income tells a noisier story at $2.21 billion, down 37.07% year over year, weighed by roughly $2.9 billion in unfavorable timing effects tied to derivatives and LIFO, a $360 million legal reserve, and a $223 million FX headwind. Strip those out and the operating engine is running hotter. Chevron returned $2.5 billion via buybacks in Q1, the 16th straight quarter of returning more than $5 billion to shareholders.

Market Reaction

Chevron shares closed at $169.20 on July 2, 2026, up 13.12% year to date and 19.13% over the past year. Now, the stock’s recent price action has cooled, alongside oil prices which dipped. Over the past month, CVX stock is off nearly 10% as WTI retreated from May’s peak to around $68.50 per barrel on July 6. Peer Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Suncor Energy (NYSE:SU) have seen similar downside moves, as investors gauge where oil prices could be headed over the medium-term.

Bull Case

Chevron’s Q1 beat pairs cleanly with three durable levers. First, volume: production growth of 15% year over year is a rare figure for a supermajor, and the Hess integration is the reason U.S. barrels have crossed two million a day for three straight quarters.

Second, cost discipline is impressive, with Chevron delivering $1.5 billion in structural cost reductions in 2025, targeting $3 billion to $4 billion by the end of 2026.

Finally, the company’s capital return profile remains robust. Chevron returned $27.1 billion to shareholders in FY 2025, a 39th consecutive annual dividend increase, and a quarterly dividend of $1.78 per share that carries a yield near 4.17%.

CEO Mike Wirth framed the quarter this way: “Despite heightened geopolitical volatility and related supply disruptions, Chevron delivered solid first quarter performance, underscoring the resilience of our portfolio and the value of disciplined execution.”

Overall, Chevron’s forward P/E sits at 11, well below the trailing multiple, reflecting analyst expectations for higher earnings power as Hess barrels flow and cost programs land. Wall Street’s consensus target of $217.14 sits above current levels, with 18 buy or strong-buy ratings against one sell.

Bottom Line

For long-term holders, Chevron’s 45.56% EPS beat is the tell. The company produced this metric all the while oil prices continued to sink below $70 per barrel. To me, that means the oil giants earnings engine is not in any way dependent on oil prices remaining in triple-digit territory. For those thinking long-term, that’s a big deal.

That said, it’s also true that volatility in commodity markets is a given. The catalyst worth watching is the structural cost target of $3 billion to $4 billion by year-end 2026. If Chevron hits it while Hess barrels compound, the $100 oil headline becomes optional to the investment case.

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Dividend funds pulled in $24.1 billion in the first quarter of 2026, their strongest opening quarter in four years, and a lot of that cash went looking for a boring place to hide from AI-hype exhaustion. The iShares Core High Dividend ETF (NYSEARCA:HDV) is one of them.

HDV holds 75 positions, charges 0.08%, and yields roughly 2.86%, which sits about as far from the concentrated tech trade as a US equity fund can get. The real question is whether HDV earns its keep or just feels safer than it performs.

The income sleeve and the machinery behind it

HDV screens the US market for companies Morningstar considers to have a durable economic moat and enough financial health to keep paying dividends through a downturn. The output is a $13.6 billion portfolio that leans hard into things people buy in every economy. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) at 7.12% and AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) at 6.57%, followed by Chevron (NYSE:CVX) at 5.4% are the three largest positions. The top ten holdings alone are nearly half of the fund.

The return engine is straightforward. You collect quarterly dividends from mature cash-generative businesses and hope the underlying stocks do not de-rate faster than the payouts arrive. Distributions have been steady but lumpy, with $3.91 per share paid across 2025 versus $4.12 in 2024, so the predictable-income pitch is directionally true rather than metronomic.

Does the anti-hype trade actually work

Year to date, HDV has done exactly what its buyers wanted. It is up roughly 15% through July 6, while the S&P 500 has gained about 10.7%. Over the trailing year the two are close, with HDV at around 20% and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) at roughly 21.4%. The value-over-growth rotation of 2026 is finally paying dividend investors back for years of patience.

Zoom out and the picture flips. If you reinvested, HDV returned about 69.6% over five years against SPY’s 85%, essentially a tie before you add HDV’s fatter dividend stream. Over ten years the gap is brutal. HDV delivered about 144% versus roughly 323% for SPY. Again, this is if you reinvested. However, even dividend reinvestment can never narrow the lead to parity. Owning HDV through a full cycle has meant trading meaningful capital appreciation for a more reliable cash yield.

The tradeoffs are real

1. Sector concentration. Energy and midstream names sit at roughly 22% of the fund, and consumer staples add another 24%. When crude cracks or tobacco regulation tightens, HDV feels it in a way a broad index does not.
2. Rate sensitivity. The 10-year Treasury at 4.48% already pays more than HDV’s dividend yield with no equity risk. If yields push toward the 4.67% May high, utility and pharma holdings typically de-rate first.
3. Growth opportunity cost. Only three technology names appear in size, and the fund’s roughly 8% tech weight means you will systematically underperform in AI-led rallies.

Who HDV fits and who should look elsewhere

HDV works as a 5% to 15% income and stability sleeve for retirees and near-retirees who want quarterly checks from companies that will survive a recession. It pairs cleanly with a broad market fund, where HDV supplies ballast and the growth position supplies compounding. If lower cost and slightly higher yield matter more than the energy tilt, Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHD) is the obvious substitute at similar expense.

HDV fits less naturally for someone under 45, still accumulating, and comparing it against an S&P 500 fund in a taxable account. Paying tax on dividends you do not need is a slow leak. The key risk is that a sustained AI-driven bull market punishes value tilts, and HDV’s ten-year performance gap is what that punishment looks like in numbers. As an income tool it delivers. As a total-return vehicle for a long horizon, it has been the wrong seat on the plane.

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Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHD) pays a quarterly distribution from roughly 100 quality-screened U.S. dividend stocks. The fund holds $71.6 billion in assets at an expense ratio of just 0.06%, and it tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index, which requires 10 consecutive years of dividend payments and screens on cash flow to debt, ROE, dividend yield, and dividend growth. That methodology is the first line of defense in the SCHD dividend safety story.

How the fund generates its yield

SCHD’s income comes from ordinary dividends paid by its underlying holdings. The top 10 positions each sit near 4% of assets and together account for roughly 41% of the portfolio. Rebalancing happens annually in March, so current names reflect the December 31, 2025 fact sheet: Bristol-Myers Squibb, Merck, ConocoPhillips, Lockheed Martin, Chevron, Verizon, AbbVie, Cisco, Coca-Cola, and Altria. Six of them drive the safety conversation.

Top holdings under the microscope

AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) sits at 3.99% of the fund. Q1 2026 revenue rose 12% to $15 billion, with Skyrizi up 31% to $4.48 billion. AbbVie raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $14.08 to $14.28 and lifted its dividend to $1.73 per quarter, the fifth straight annual raise. Humira erosion is real, and immunology successors are filling the gap. Coverage looks solid.

Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) is a textbook aristocrat. Operating margin expanded to 35% in Q1 2026, free cash flow jumped 132% to $1.76 billion, and full-year FCF guidance sits near $12.2 billion against a dividend that just stepped up to $0.53 per quarter. This marks the 63rd consecutive annual increase. There is no realistic scenario in which this payout is at risk.

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) pays $1.78 per quarter for a yield near 4.2%. Q1 free cash flow swung negative to -$1.55 billion on working capital timing and derivative mismatches, but full-year 2025 FCF of $16.6 billion and 16 straight quarters of $5 billion-plus in shareholder returns tell the real story. Chevron’s 39-year streak of raises reflects a commitment management is unlikely to break for a cyclical trough.

Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) is the closest call. Q1 free cash flow was -$291 million while dividends paid ran $816 million, and program charges hit F-16, C-130, and CH-53K. Management reaffirmed FY26 FCF of $6.5 billion to $6.8 billion and raised the dividend 5% to $3.45 per quarter, its 23rd straight increase. Full-year coverage remains intact.

Verizon (NYSE:VZ) yields around 6.5% and carries the highest scrutiny. Total debt climbed to $172.5 billion after closing the Frontier deal on January 20, 2026. Even so, 2025 free cash flow of $20.1 billion covered the $11.5 billion dividend 1.75x, and 2026 guidance calls for FCF of $21.5 billion or more. Elevated leverage is a genuine risk if rates spike, but today’s coverage is comfortable.

Merck (NYSE:MRK) posted a GAAP loss of -$1.28 per share in Q1, driven entirely by a $9.0 billion Cidara acquisition charge. KEYTRUDA grew 12% to $8.03 billion, and full-year non-GAAP EPS guidance moved up to $5.04 to $5.16 against a $0.85 quarterly payout. The reported loss is accounting noise, and operational cash generation supports the dividend.

Total return context and the verdict

SCHD has returned 20% year to date and 23% over the past year, with a 10-year gain of 227%. Income durability rests on cash-generating businesses, and the annual rebalance culls names that let dividend growth stall. For conservative investors seeking growth and income, SCHD’s distribution reads as safe. Aggressive income hunters chasing higher yields will prefer options-based funds, and growth-tilted dividend investors can consider peer growth-oriented dividend ETFs that trade current yield for faster payout growth.

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Energy stocks just gave investors a buying window. After WTI crude spiked to $114.58 per barrel on April 7, on the Strait of Hormuz disruption, prices have cooled to $78.94 per barrel as of June 22, dragging the three integrated majors down with them. Exxon Mobil is off 6% over the past month, Chevron is down 8%, and ConocoPhillips has slid 9%. Yet all three crushed Q1 earnings, all three are returning record capital, and the EIA still expects OPEC spare capacity to average just 2.5 million b/d in 2027 following the UAE’s departure from the cartel.

Here are three energy stocks worth examining in July, each filling a distinct portfolio role.

Exxon Mobil (XOM): The Longest Streak, the Safest Coverage

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) trades around $137 with a market cap near $564 billion. The dividend is the headline: $1.03 quarterly, raised from $0.99 with the February 2026 ex-dividend, extending what is now 43 consecutive years of annual dividend increases. The yield sits at 3%, the lowest of this trio, because Exxon’s payout is the most defensible, backed by a debt/equity of 0.17 and interest coverage of 56x.

Q1 2026 showed why investors pay up. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.16 versus $1.01 expected, a 15% beat marking the fourth consecutive quarter exceeding estimates. Upstream production hit 4.6 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, with Guyana topping a record 900,000 gross bpd. The forward catalyst is liquefied gas: Golden Pass LNG Train 1 shipped its first cargo in April 2026, opening a new earnings stream as global LNG demand absorbs lost Persian Gulf supply.

The forward P/E of 12 against 11 Buy or Strong Buy ratings and a $170.29 analyst target leaves meaningful upside room.

Risk: Exxon’s effective tax rate jumped to 40% in Q1, and mark-to-market derivative timing wiped $3.88 billion off GAAP net income. These distortions can persist if oil keeps swinging.

Chevron (CVX): The Highest Yield, With Hess Synergies Kicking In

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) around $169 offers the richest current yield at 4%, after the board raised the quarterly payout to $1.78 from $1.71 effective Feb. 17. That extends a streak of 39 consecutive years of annual increases.

The thesis is post-merger optionality. Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.41 beat the $0.97 estimate by 46%, the sixth straight beat. Worldwide production rose 15% year over year to 3,858 MBOED, fueled by the Hess acquisition, and U.S. output cleared 2 million bpd for the third straight quarter. Management has already hit its initial $1 billion Hess synergy target and is working toward a $3 to $4 billion structural cost reduction by year-end 2026. There is also unpriced optionality: a data-center power JV with Microsoft and Engine No. 1 in West Texas, plus a lithium beachhead in the Smackover Formation. Capital return remains industrial-scale, with $2.5 billion in Q1 2026 buybacks marking the 16th straight quarter above $5 billion of total shareholder returns.

Risk: Coverage is thinner than Exxon’s. Chevron’s net debt ratio rose to 18% from 16%, and Q1 absorbed roughly $2.9 billion of unfavorable derivative and LIFO timing. The yield is real, but the free cash flow cushion is tighter.

ConocoPhillips (COP): The Cheapest Valuation, the Cleanest Growth Story

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is the pure-play E&P bet and cheapest stock in the group. Shares trade around $105 against a trailing P/E of 18 and a forward P/E of just 10x, both well below integrated peers. The EV/EBITDA of 5.93 is the discount that long-only energy managers tend to pounce on.

Q1 2026 adjusted EPS landed at $1.89 versus $1.69 expected, a 12% beat, even as the realized price slid to $50.36 per BOE, down 6% year over year. The fixed-plus-variable dividend sits at $0.84 for Q2 2026, up from $0.78, and management is committed to returning 45% of cash flow from operations to shareholders in 2026. The growth engine is real: Willow in Alaska reached 50% completion, Port Arthur LNG starts up in the second half of 2026, and the company is targeting $7 billion of incremental free cash flow by 2029.

CEO Ryan Lance summed it up: “We remain focused on delivering our value proposition: operating safely; maximizing our returns on and of capital, reiterating our objective to return 45% of CFO to shareholders this year; and driving peer-leading free cash flow growth.”

Risk: As a pure-play E&P, ConocoPhillips has the highest commodity sensitivity. Management already excluded Qatar from 2026 production guidance of 2.295 to 2.325 MMBOED due to Middle East conflict, and a sustained crude drop below the high $60s would compress the variable dividend fast.

What to Watch in July

The EIA expects Brent to average $89 per barrel in Q4 2026 and $79 in 2027 as Middle East production returns. If Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizes faster than expected, ConocoPhillips gets hit hardest and Exxon least. If tensions reignite, the order flips. July earnings season starts the next leg, with all three reporting Q2 numbers in early August. Investors can pick their poison: safety (XOM), income (CVX), or upside leverage (COP).

The post 3 Energy Stocks to Buy in July appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Crude oil has fallen sharply from its spring highs, yet many drivers are still paying far more at the pump than they were expecting. In a recent CNBC segment, Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, argued that tight gasoline supplies, U.S. refiners already running “incredibly hard,” and a potentially pivotal mid-August geopolitical deadline are keeping upward pressure on fuel prices.

Why Cheaper Oil Isn’t Leading To Cheaper Gas Prices

Croft’s core point is that the disconnect between wholesale crude and retail gasoline is playing out in the products market, which she says remains tighter than crude itself. Per the EIA data she cited, gasoline inventories continue to draw, meaning supply is being drawn down faster than it is being replenished, even as crude has weakened.

The reason refiners can’t simply close the gap? U.S. refiners are already running effectively at maximum capacity, according to Croft. At peak utilization, there is little slack left in the system to convert cheaper crude into more finished gasoline quickly enough to break the tightness. That is why retail gasoline prices can remain elevated even when a barrel of oil becomes cheaper.

Croft noted that the average U.S. gasoline price is now $3.83 per gallon, down from $4.29 a month ago but still meaningfully higher than a year ago. Consumers are getting some relief at the pump, just far less than the move in crude would suggest.

Why Mid-August Could Decide Energy Prices

Croft flagged mid-August as an important inflection point for gasoline, crude, and natural gas prices, and she tied it to geopolitics rather than seasonal demand alone.

The key data point in her segment involved the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Since a memorandum of understanding was signed, ship traffic exiting and entering the Strait has picked up but is averaging about 40 vessels a day, well below the pre-tension pace of 100-plus a day, Croft said. Traffic has normalized somewhat, but only partially.

Her read on where negotiations are headed leans cautious. Croft said she is “more pessimistic” after meeting with Middle East energy officials, who she described as in “watch and wait” mode. She sees a real chance the nuclear negotiations get punted or rolled over rather than finalized by August, a scenario that would keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy prices and, by extension, in gasoline at the pump.

What Drivers And Investors Should Watch Next

Croft’s thesis is that falling crude prices tell only part of the story. Tight gasoline inventories, refiners already operating near full capacity, and lingering geopolitical uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz are all limiting how quickly lower oil prices reach consumers.

While she expects mid-August to be a key turning point for crude, gasoline, and natural gas markets, the outcome will largely depend on shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, the direction of nuclear negotiations, and whether refinery utilization and gasoline inventories begin to normalize.

The post U.S. Refiners Are Running “Incredibly Hard.” Here’s Why Gas Prices Aren’t Falling appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Pre-Market Stock Futures:

Futures are trading higher as we get ready to end the holiday-shortened trading week, with the country preparing to celebrate the 250th birthday of our democratic republic. The stock market will be closed on Friday for the federal holiday, kicking off a long weekend to jump-start the holiday fun. All of the major indices closed lower on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq leading the way, trading down 0.66% at 26,040, while the S&P 500 was last seen at 7,483, down 0.22%. The Dow Jones Industrials also closed lower at 52,305, down a tiny 0.03%, while printing a new all-time high earlier in the day. The small-cap-laden Russell 2000 finished the session down 0.39% at 3,012. The small-cap index leads all the major indices as we start the second half of the trading year, up over 20%.

Treasury Bonds:

Yields were mixed across the Treasury curve to start July, with the belly and the long end selling off while buyers focused on the shorter T-bill maturities. When trading ended on Wednesday, the 30-year-long bond was last seen at 4.97%, while the benchmark 10-year note closed at 4.48%. Traders were focused on the commentary from the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, who noted that while economic conditions are good and improving as energy prices fall, inflation remains well above the 2% target. 

Oil and Gas:

In a bright note for consumers, as we start the third quarter, energy prices fell on Wednesday, with both of the major benchmarks finishing the session lower. Improving traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and the absence of new incidents between the U.S. and Iran remain positives for the energy complex. Brent Crude ended the day at $71.18, down 2.43%, while West Texas Intermediate closed trading at $68.10, down 2.03%. Natural gas also closed lower, finishing the day at $3.21, down 2.14%.

Gold:

After a brutal second quarter, Gold started July off the right way, finishing the day up 0.59% at $4.030. Silver also had a winning day to start July, closing at $59.22, up 0.87%. Central banks, which were recently surveyed, expect gold to trade between $5,000 and $6,000 over the next year as they continue to purchase massive amounts to counter currency and other risk factors.  

Crypto:

24/7 Wall St. reviews dozens of analyst research reports every day to identify fresh investment ideas for investors and traders alike. These daily analyst notes include recommendations on stocks to buy, sell, or avoid, as well as new coverage initiations. Important reminder: No single analyst report should ever be the sole basis for buying or selling a stock.

Here are some of the best Wall Street analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen on Thursday, July 2, 2026.  

Upgrades:

• Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC, which raised the target price for the shares to $308 from $282.
• Chevron (NYSE: CVX) was upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research, with a $210 target price.
• Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) was raised to Buy from Neutral at DA Davidson, with a $175 target price.
• Silicom (NASDAQ: SILC) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham, which has a $60 target price.

Downgrades:

• Agnt (NASDAQ: AGNT) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson, which cut the target price to $6.50 from $10.25.
• Dana (NYSE: DAN) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays, with a $32 target price.
• Greenbrier Companies (NYSE: GBX) was cut to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna, with a $52 target price.
• SkyWest (NASDAQ: SKYW) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs, which trimmed the target price for the shares to $108 from $126.
• Trip.com Group (NASDAQ: TCOM) was cut to Hold from Buy at China Renaissance, with a $42 target price.

Initiations:

• Honeywell Aerospace (NASDAQ: HONA) was initiated with an Outperform rating at BMO Capital, which has a $276 target price.
• Mobility Global (NASDAQ: MBGL) was started with a Sector Perform rating at RBC Capital, with a $23 target.
• Ni Source (NYSE: NI) was initiated with an Outperform rating at RBC Capital, which has a $52 target price. 
  
• OnHolding (NASDAQ: ONON) was resumed with an Overweight rating at JPMorgan, which has a $51 target price for the shares.
• Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) was started with a Neutral rating at Daiwa, with a $175 target price.

The post Here Are Thursday’s Best Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Adobe, Chevron, Dana, Honeywell Aerospace, Mobility Global, Ni Source, Palantir, SpaceX, and More appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) just wrote another check to shareholders, and the market is still treating the company like crude prices are about to collapse. On June 10, Chevron paid out $1.78 per share, the second quarterly distribution at the new rate after a 4% increase declared Jan. 30, marking the 39th consecutive annual dividend increase. The payment lands at a moment when retail investors are bifurcated between dividend hunters and oil-volatility traders, and the data argues the dividend hunters have the better read.

The headline yield sits near 4% at recent prices, with Chevron shares closing at $164.78 on June 30. That yield exists because the stock has pulled back, not because the payout is in trouble. Here is why the nervousness driving the discount looks outdated.

The Dividend Scorecard: Grade A-

Start with the streak. Chevron’s 39 consecutive years of dividend increases places it in the elite Dividend Aristocrat tier, and the company has now strung together 16 consecutive quarters of returning more than $5 billion to shareholders. That cadence held through the 2020 pandemic crash, the 2022 oil spike, and the 2025 price normalization.

The growth profile matters too. The quarterly dividend has moved from $1.63 in 2024 to $1.71 in 2025 to $1.78 in 2026. Stretch the lens further and the quarterly payout has risen from roughly $0.68 to $0.72 in 2010 to $1.78 today, which is approximately a 2.5x increase over 16 years.

The 2020 row is the stress test that matters. Chevron maintained the dividend with $1.7 billion of free cash flow against a $9.7 billion payout. Management chose to defend the streak rather than reset it. With 2025 free cash flow at $16.6 billion and the trailing dividend covered 1.30x, the bar for trouble is considerably higher than today’s price action implies.

Why The Nervousness Is Outdated

The bear case rests on oil prices. So look at oil prices.

Brent crude exploded to $138.21 per barrel on April 7, after the Strait of Hormuz disruption, then collapsed through May and June. As of June 22, Brent traded at $76.49 while WTI sat at $78.94 on the same day. WTI is down 21% in a single month, and the market is pricing CVX as if that downward pressure will continue indefinitely.

That assumption ignores the EIA’s published outlook. The May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook expects Brent to average around $106 per barrel in May and June, falling to $89 in Q4 and $79 in 2027 as Middle East production normalizes. Even in the bearish forward path, Brent settles in a range where Chevron’s payout is comfortably covered.

The second piece of the bear case, that Chevron’s Q1 results showed cracks, also fails on inspection. Q1 2026 adjusted EPS came in at $1.41 versus a 97-cent estimate — a 46% beat. That is the sixth consecutive quarterly EPS beat. Free cash flow did print negative at negative $1.549 billion, but the company specifically attributed that to unfavorable timing effects worth roughly $2.9 billion, including mark-to-market derivative mismatches, LIFO inventory accounting, and working capital outflows from the March 2026 commodity price spike. Those are reversing items that should unwind in coming quarters.

The Hess Engine Is Now Running

The Hess acquisition closed in 2025, and Q1 2026 is the first clean quarter showing what it does to the production base. Worldwide net oil-equivalent production surged 15% to 3,858 MBOED, with U.S. output exceeding 2 million barrels per day for the third consecutive quarter and Permian production crossing 1 million BOE per day.

CEO Mike Wirth framed the quarter this way: “Our U.S. refineries operated at record crude throughput in March, capital spending remains within guidance, and our structural cost reductions are firmly on track. This disciplined performance supports dependable cash generation, enabling us to continue returning significant capital to shareholders, while investing in advantaged long-lived assets.”

The capital-return arithmetic backs him up. Chevron returned $27.1 billion to shareholders in 2025, including $12.1 billion in buybacks plus the dividend, and added another $2.5 billion of repurchases in Q1 2026. The buyback at $168 is reducing share count at a meaningfully lower cost than at the $214.71 52-week high.

Valuation and What to Watch Next

Chevron now trades at a forward P/E of 12, with a PEG ratio of 0.69 and an analyst target price of $217.14. The consensus tilts buy, with 5 strong buy, 13 buy, 6 hold, and 1 sell rating. Shares have still returned 14% over the past year and roughly 57% over the past five years.

Retail sentiment confirms the disconnect between price action and fundamentals. Reddit sentiment on CVX through early-to-mid June ran bullish across all six data points, with an average sentiment score of 72 and a range of 66 to 76. The conversation splits between dividend investors on r/stocks and options traders on r/wallstreetbets positioning around “Gulf chaos” calls, but neither cohort is questioning the payout.

The watch items from here are clean. First, Q2 free cash flow needs to swing positive as the March working capital build unwinds. Second, Brent needs to settle in the $75 to $85 range the EIA projects rather than slip toward the $55.44 December 2025 low. Third, the 40th consecutive annual increase, expected in January 2027, would lock in another rung on a streak few energy companies can claim.

At a 4% yield, with 1.30x free cash flow coverage, a record 39-year increase history, and a production base that just stepped up 15%, the dividend is doing what it has done for four decades. The nervousness around it is what looks dated.

The post Chevron Yields 4.2% Because Oil Prices Make Everyone Nervous. Here’s Why That Thinking Is Outdated appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

When legendary value investor Mario Gabelli launched the Gabelli GAMCO Global Gold, Natural Resources & Income Trust (NYSE: GGN), he built it around two sectors he believed would remain essential in the long term, regardless of market cycles: energy and natural resources. That thesis has aged remarkably well. As inflation concerns linger, geopolitical tensions remain elevated, and investors continue searching for reliable income, the fund offers exposure to some of the world’s largest commodity and energy companies while yielding roughly 7% annually. For investors seeking a combination of income, inflation protection, and exposure to sectors that continue to benefit from long-term global demand trends, Gabelli’s decades-old strategy looks as relevant today as ever.

The GAMCO Global Gold, Natural Resources & Income Trust is a non-diversified, closed-end management company. The fund intends to generate income from short-term gains primarily through its covered call option strategy on the equity securities in its portfolio. Because of its primary strategy, the fund forgoes the opportunity to participate fully in the appreciation of the underlying equity security above the option’s exercise price. Under normal market conditions, the fund will invest 80% of its assets in equity securities of companies principally engaged in the gold and natural resource industries.

Inflation Protection: Gold has long been viewed as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty or inflation. As inflation rises, the price of gold typically increases, and gold-mining stocks tend to benefit from higher gold prices, offering a potential hedge against inflationary pressures.

The fund offers broad portfolio diversification: With historically low correlation with equities and fixed income, exposure to gold mining stocks may provide added diversification to a portfolio composed of traditional asset classes. It may be an ideal choice for investors seeking a portfolio hedge and exposure to current pricing dislocations in gold and energy.

Here are the top 10 holdings and their percentage of the portfolio as of 04/06/2026:

• Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) 6.00%
• Newmont (NYSE: NEM) 5.09%
• Chevron (NYSE: CVX) 3.80%
• Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) 3.20%
• BHP (NYSE: BHP) 2.70%
• Shell (NYSE: SHEL) 2.70%
• Northern Star Resources — Australia 2.60%
• Endeavour Mining United Kingdom 2.29%
• Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) 2.29%
• Alamos Gold (NYSE: AGI) 2.10%

The Gabelli team said this when they reported first-quarter results:

The first quarter of 2026 stood as one of the most volatile periods for precious metals in modern memory. Gold initially witnessed a parabolic run, smashing through psychological barriers to reach near-unsurpassed levels of $5,589 per ounce by late January. This surge was fueled by a U.S. budget deficit that had reached structural intractability, with the market pricing in the inevitable consequences of fiat debasement. However, the narrative shifted violently in late February with the onset of U.S. and Israeli military strikes in Iran. This conflict triggered a historic pullback, bottoming at $4,100 in March—the steepest weekly decline in four decades. While analysts cited margin calls, the deeper driver was an aggressive defense of the petrodollar. As rising gold prices offered a non-fiat reserve alternative, military intervention in the Strait of Hormuz reinforced dollar hegemony. By disrupting oil flows, the U.S. engineered a scarcity that forced nations to scramble for dollars to secure energy lifelines, effectively crushing gold’s appeal. Despite the orchestrated sell-off, gold bullion posted a net gain of 6.7% for the quarter, while mining equities returned 9.7%.

After bottoming in March, gold rebounded sharply. It has since reversed and now trades just over $4,000, offering a much better entry point. The recovery was fueled by renewed safe-haven buying, continued central bank purchases, particularly from China, and stubborn inflation pressures, highlighting the metal’s strong underlying demand. The longer-term outlook remains constructive. Analysts at J.P. Morgan see gold moving significantly higher, with forecasts calling for prices to approach $6,000 by late 2026 and potentially reach $6,300 by the end of 2027. Their bullish view is supported by expectations for easier monetary policy, which remains to be seen, rising global debt burdens, and ongoing efforts by central banks to diversify reserves away from traditional assets.

A move back to $5,000 would represent roughly 20% upside from current levels and appears achievable if geopolitical tensions escalate or U.S. economic growth weakens. While gold is likely to experience periods of volatility and short-term pullbacks, the long-term investment case remains intact, making it an attractive portfolio hedge in an increasingly uncertain macroeconomic environment.

While a ceasefire and a peace treaty continue to bring down elevated oil prices, many feel it could take years for supply chains and logistics to return to pre-war levels. Most feel that oil could trade in the $70 to $75 a barrel range for the next few years, before ultimately returning to the $60 to $65 range it traded at before the war.

The post Why Mario Gabelli Is Smiling — His ETF Delivers 7.5% in Monthly Dividends in 2 Must-Own Sectors appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Crude oil has whipsawed investors all year. WTI spiked to $112.25 per barrel in mid-May as the Iran conflict rattled supply lanes, then drifted back to $84.65 by June 15. For income investors, that kind of volatility is exactly why owning energy through dividend-rich names with insulated cash flows beats trying to ride the barrel. The three picks below have multi-decade payout streaks, fortress-grade balance sheets or fee-based revenue models, and Q1 2026 results that confirmed the dividends are funded by real cash, not financial engineering.

Each name carries a concrete reason to be called “reliable”: 27 consecutive years of distribution growth at one, 43 consecutive years of dividend increases at another, and 39 consecutive years at the third. Here is how to think about each one as we move through June.

Enterprise Products Partners

Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE:EPD) is a master limited partnership that issues a K-1 at tax time, an important note for retirement accounts. It operates one of the largest midstream networks in North America, with over 50,000 miles of pipelines, processing plants, and export terminals tied to natural gas liquids, crude, and petrochemicals.

The income story is the headline. The Q2 2026 distribution was declared at $0.55 per unit, payable May 14, 2026, which annualizes to $2.20 and extends a 27th consecutive year of distribution growth. Q1 2026 backed it up: adjusted EBITDA grew 10% to $2.69 billion, distributable cash flow hit $2.7 billion, and the partnership retained $1.5 billion for reinvestment after the payout. CEO Jim Teague has separately flagged that a Strait of Hormuz disruption could remove 12 million to 15 million barrels per day from global supply, a tailwind for U.S. export infrastructure.

Shares trade around $36.76, up 28% over the past year, with a forward earnings multiple of 13. The analyst consensus price target sits at $41.25. The caveats: leverage is meaningful at $34.2 billion in total debt, NGL realized prices have softened to $0.57/gal versus $0.67/gal year over year, and the K-1 form complicates tax filing.

Exxon Mobil

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) is the integrated supermajor benchmark, and its Q1 2026 print made the bull case loudly. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.16 versus the $1.0074 estimate, the company’s fourth straight quarter beating expectations. Revenue grew 5% year over year to $85.14 billion, and underlying earnings hit $8.77 billion after stripping out derivative timing noise.

The dividend keeps marching. The Q2 2026 declaration was $1.03 per share, paid June 10, 2026, with the yield sitting near 3%. Capital return is heavy: $4.9 billion in buybacks during Q1 against a $20 billion full-year repurchase target. CEO Darren Woods called Exxon a “fundamentally stronger company…built to perform through disruption.” The growth engines back him up: record Guyana production above 900,000 gross barrels per day and the first Golden Pass LNG export cargo loaded in April 2026.

Shares trade around $136.43 with a forward P/E of 12 and a year-over-year gain of 29%. The analyst target is $169.91. The risk worth weighing: GAAP earnings showed a 46% YoY decline due to derivative timing, and Middle East geopolitical exposure cuts both ways.

Chevron

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is the only energy stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Hess integration has reshaped the production base. Worldwide output rose 15% YoY to 3,858 MBOED in Q1 2026, with U.S. production above 2 million barrels per day for a third straight quarter. Adjusted EPS landed at $1.41 versus a $0.97 estimate, the sixth straight beat.

Income credentials are deep. Chevron paid $1.78 per share on June 10, 2026, with the yield around 4% and a streak now stretching 39 consecutive years. Capital return remained aggressive at $2.5 billion in Q1 buybacks, the 16th consecutive quarter returning more than $5 billion to shareholders. CEO Mike Wirth highlighted “solid first quarter performance, underscoring the resilience of our portfolio.”

Shares sit near $171.26, up 25% over one year, with a forward P/E of 12 and an analyst target of $217.36. Watch the cash flow line: Q1 free cash flow turned negative at -$1.55 billion on working capital outflows and derivative timing, and the net debt ratio rose to 18% from 16%. TCO downtime in Kazakhstan and Venezuela exposure add geopolitical complications.

What to Watch Next

Each of these names solves a different problem in an income portfolio. Enterprise Products offers the highest payout with fee-based insulation. Exxon brings scale, LNG growth, and the strongest balance sheet. Chevron delivers the highest yield among the integrated majors with a clear post-Hess production runway. If WTI volatility persists through summer, the structural cash flow profiles of these three should let the dividend checks keep clearing regardless of the headline price.

The post 3 Reliable Energy Dividend Stocks to Buy in June appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Our Chevron (NYSE:CVX) call is measured. The 24/7 Wall St. price target is $152.52, below the current price of $175.06. That implies downside of roughly 12.88% over the next 12 months. Our recommendation is hold with a confidence level of 90%.

Chevron is a high-quality compounder, but at 30x trailing earnings and with WTI sliding, the risk-reward has tightened.

24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary

Why We Could Be Wrong

Our $152.52 target sits below current levels, but bull arguments are real. A Middle East supply shock could push Brent toward $138/barrel intraday April peak, and Hess synergies plus Permian growth could re-rate earnings meaningfully. A detailed bull case appears below.

A Rally That Cooled Off in June

CVX is up 17.04% year to date and 21.96% over the past year, but momentum has cooled. The stock is down 8.55% over the past month and sits roughly 2% below the 52-week high of $212.76. The pullback tracks WTI crude, which fell to $84.65 per barrel on June 15 as Strait of Hormuz tensions eased.

Q1 2026 was mixed. Adjusted EPS of $1.41 beat the $0.97 consensus by 45.56%, but revenue of $47.56 billion missed by 9.76%. Net income fell 37.07% year over year, hit by roughly $2.9 billion in unfavorable timing effects, a $360 million legal reserve, and FX headwinds. Production hit a record 3,858 MBOED, up 15% YoY, driven by Hess integration.

The Case for $211 and Higher

The bull case rests on production scale and capital returns. Chevron returned $27.10 billion to shareholders in 2025, raised the dividend for the 39th consecutive year, and targets $3 billion to $4 billion in structural cost reductions by end of 2026.

Hess synergies hit the initial $1 billion target, Permian crossed 1M BOE/day, and Guyana’s Stabroek block keeps adding capacity. A Microsoft data center power deal in West Texas and lithium acreage in the Smackover Formation add option value.

Our bull case projects CVX at $211.21 in 12 months, a 20.65% total return. The $216.04 analyst consensus from 18 buys against 1 sell aligns with that path.

What Could Go Wrong

Brent is forecast to fall to $79/b in 2027 per the EIA, compressing margins on every incremental Hess barrel. Net debt ratio rose to 17.9% in Q1 2026 from 15.6% a quarter earlier, and Q1 free cash flow swung to -$1.55 billion. Operating cash flow of $33.90 billion for FY2025 still grew 7.65%. Our bear scenario lands at $143.67, a 17.93% drawdown.

Chevron Price Prediction 2026-2030

My verdict is hold with 90% confidence. The $152.52 target implies the stock is priced for the bullish Hess and Permian story, while WTI’s 22.3% monthly slide erodes the earnings tailwind.

I’d be a buyer if Brent stabilizes above $90 and Q2 free cash flow snaps back. I’d stay on the sidelines if oil drifts toward the EIA’s $79/b 2027 view and debt ratio climbs. The 3.66% dividend yield supports the hold thesis.

Here is where our model projects Chevron could trade, assuming current production growth, the EIA’s Brent trajectory, and disciplined capital returns.

These projections assume Chevron continues executing on Hess integration and Permian growth. Material upside or downside could come from a sustained Brent move above $100 or a structural demand shock.

The post Prediction: Chevron Could See a 13% Drop as Oil Slips appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Bank of America has predicted that the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise interest rates by 75 basis points this year, with the first 25-basis-point hike in September. They also see additional 25-basis-point hikes in October and December. The energy shock from the war with Iran drove inflation higher, with the CPI rising in May to 3.8%, the sharpest increase in three years and well above the Fed’s 2% target. This, in turn, has prompted lenders to demand higher rates to protect returns. Meanwhile, investors sold bonds amid rising inflation and concerns about U.S. debt, which lifted Treasury yields. Since mortgage rates are based on the 10-year Treasury yield plus a risk premium, they rose in tandem. On the fiscal side, federal interest payments now exceed spending on Medicaid, national defense, and all nondefense discretionary programs combined, adding further upward pressure on long-term borrowing costs.

The team at Bank of America frames the rate increase argument on the hand that new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was dealt, noting the following when discussing the potential for rate hikes this year:

We now expect three 25-basis-point Fed hikes this year, in September, October, and December. This would take the policy rate to 4.25-4.5%. We were skeptical of the need for cuts in 2025. Both the data and our updated read of the Fed’s reaction function suggest it will reverse those cuts in short order. We think the Fed will stay on hold next year. Inflation is likely to remain sticky, keeping the real policy rate from becoming overly restrictive. Meanwhile, the Fed’s inflation problem has gotten unambiguously worse. Core PCE could reach 3.5% in May, nearly 70bp higher than it was a year ago. The pickup has been partly due to tariffs and other one-offs. The Fed was willing to look through the tariffs, but it is losing patience after the latest round of supply shocks. Also, housing-driven disinflation has now mostly run its course, while other core services remain very sticky.

Typically, when interest rates go higher, these four sectors tend to win:

• Financials
• Energy
• Healthcare
• Consumer Staples

We screened our 24/7 Wall St. dividend stocks database for quality companies that pay big, dependable dividends and generate reliable passive income. We found four companies, one in each sector, that are solid bets if the upward trend in interest rates remains and Bank of America is correct in three rate hikes. All are rated Buy by the top Wall Street firms we cover.

Financials: Wells Fargo

Financials are the biggest winner. Banks earn a wider spread between what they pay depositors and what they charge borrowers. Insurers earn more on their investment portfolios. The sector almost mechanically benefits from rising rates, as net interest income rises.

Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) operates in 35 countries and serves over 70 million customers worldwide. This money-center giant makes sense, given its 2.09% dividend, as many of the issues that plagued the company over the past five years appear to have been resolved. This financial services company offers a diverse range of banking, investment, mortgage, and consumer and commercial finance products and services in the United States and internationally.

The company operates through four segments. The Consumer Banking and Lending segment offers a diverse range of financial products and services tailored to meet the needs of consumers and small businesses. These include checking and savings accounts, credit and debit cards, as well as home, auto, personal, and small business lending services.

The Commercial Banking segment provides financial solutions to private, family-owned, and specific public companies. Its products and services include banking and credit products across various industry sectors and municipalities, as well as secured lending and lease products, and treasury management services.

The Corporate and Investment Banking segment offers a suite of capital markets, banking, and financial products and services, such as:

• Corporate banking
• Investment banking
• Treasury management
• Commercial real estate lending and servicing
• Equity and fixed-income solutions
• Sales, trading, and research services to corporate, commercial real estate, government, and institutional clients

The Wealth and Investment Management segment provides wealth management, brokerage, financial planning, lending, private banking, and trust and fiduciary products and services to affluent, high-net-worth, and ultra-high-net-worth clients. It also operates through financial advisors in brokerage and wealth offices, consumer bank branches, independent offices, and digitally through WellsTrade and Intuitive Investor.

Barclays has an Overweight rating and a $108 target price.

Energy: Chevron

Energy benefits because rate hikes typically coincide with inflation, and oil and gas prices are a primary driver of inflation. Higher commodity prices equal higher revenues. It’s the inflation hedge play, and it has been the strongest-performing S&P sector so far in 2026.

Chevron (NYSE: CVX) is an American multinational energy company that primarily focuses on oil and gas. It is a safer option for investors looking to position themselves in the energy sector, and it pays a substantial 3.84% dividend, which was raised by 5% earlier this year. The company operates integrated energy and chemicals businesses worldwide.

Chevron operates in two segments. The Upstream segment is involved in:

• Exploration, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas
• Processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas
• Transportation of crude oil through pipelines, and transportation, storage
• Marketing of natural gas, as well as operating a gas-to-liquids plant

The Downstream segment engages in:

• Refining crude oil into petroleum products
• Marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants
• Manufacturing and marketing renewable fuels
• Transporting crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car
• Manufacturing and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives

It also involves cash management, debt financing, insurance operations, real estate, and technology businesses.

Mizuho has an Outperform rating and a $230 target price.

Healthcare: Merck

Pricing power and steady demand insulate the top healthcare names. They don’t directly benefit from higher rates, but they tend to hold up well because their earnings do not erode as much as those of interest-sensitive sectors.

Merck (NYSE: MRK) develops and produces medicines, vaccines, biological therapies, and animal health products. It is not just a healthcare company but a global force in the industry, paying a solid 2.84% dividend.

Merck operates through two segments. The Pharmaceutical segment offers human health pharmaceutical products in:

• Oncology
• Hospital acute care
• Immunology
• Neuroscience
• Virology
• Cardiovascular
• Diabetes
• Vaccine products, such as preventive pediatric, adolescent, and adult vaccines

The Animal Health segment discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets veterinary pharmaceuticals, vaccines, health management solutions and services, and digitally connected identification, traceability, and monitoring products.

Merck serves:

• Drug wholesalers
• Retailers
• Hospitals
• Government agencies
• Managed healthcare providers, such as health maintenance organizations
• Pharmacy benefit managers and other institutions
• Physicians
• Physician distributors
• Veterinarians
• Animal producers

Merck’s growth is a result of its efforts and strategic collaborations. The company works with AstraZeneca, Bayer, Eisai, Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, and Gilead Sciences to jointly develop and commercialize long-acting HIV treatments, demonstrating a commitment to innovation and growth.

UBS has a Buy rating with a $145 target price.

Consumer Staples: Altria

Although consumer staples do not directly benefit from interest rates, they still emerge as relative winners. By delivering essential products, they maintain stable revenues regardless of the broader economic cycle, making them attractive to investors seeking a reliable safe haven.

Altria (NYSE: MO) is one of the world’s largest producers and marketers of cigarettes and other tobacco-related products. This stock offers value investors a great entry point. Altria manufactures and sells smokable and oral tobacco products in the United States and is the undisputed yield leader among consumer staples Dividend Kings. Its annual dividend of $4.24 per share currently yields 6.1%.

The company primarily sells cigarettes under the Marlboro brand, as well as:

• Cigars and pipe tobacco, principally under the Black & Mild and Middleton brands
• Moist smokeless tobacco and snus products under the Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands
• on! Oral nicotine pouches
• e-vapor products under the NJOY ACE brand

It sells its tobacco products primarily to wholesalers, including distributors and large retail organizations, such as chain stores.

Altria used to own over 10% of Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE: BUD), the world’s largest brewer. In 2024, the company sold 35 million of its 197 million shares through a global secondary offering. That represents 18% of its holdings but still leaves 8% of the outstanding shares in its back pocket. Altria also announced a $2.4 billion stock repurchase plan partially funded by the sale.

UBS has a Buy rating with a $76 target price.

The post Bank of America Sees Interest Rates Exploding Higher Soon: Play It Safe With 4 Dividend Giants appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Pre-Market Stock Futures:

Futures are trading lower after a mixed start to trading on Monday, following the holiday-shortened week due to the Juneteenth Federal holiday. We may start to see some end-of-the-quarter reallocations and selling for Hedge funds, ETFs, and Mutual Funds this week, and today looks like a starting point. With most corporate buybacks now on hold due to the second-quarter earnings blackouts, we could see additional volatility as the week progresses. The only indices to finish Monday positive were the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which closed at 51,712, up just 0.29%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index, which closed at 3,005, up 0.88%. The Nasdaq took a beating, closing down 1.33% at 26,166, while the S&P 500 also closed lower, down 0.37% at 7,472. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 dropped on Monday as megacap tech stocks sold off sharply, dragging both indexes lower. Investors are growing increasingly uneasy about the steep infrastructure spending required to scale AI, while ongoing geopolitical tensions add another layer of uncertainty to markets.

Treasury Bonds:

Treasury yields soared on Monday, and one likely reason we cover today at 24/7 Wall St. Bank of America came out Monday with a report saying the bank now expects a stunning 75 basis points of rate increases from the Federal Reserve for the rest of 2026. The BofA team sees a 25-basis-point increase in September, October, and December, effectively wiping out the 2025 cuts. Citing sticky inflation and a hawkish first meeting by new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, as reasons for a potential big shift in policy. The 30-year long bond closed the day at 4.95%, while the benchmark 10-year note was last seen at 4.51%

Oil and Gas:

Despite some ambiguity about the Strait of Hormuz’s status on Monday, both major benchmarks finished the day lower. Brent Crude closed Monday at $78.18, down 2.97%, while West Texas Intermediate closed the session at $74.20, down 2.18%. Natural gas continued its hot streak, closing at $3.25, up 0.37%, with some pointing to the announcement CNBC reported that Chevron (NYSE: CVX) signed a 20-year agreement to supply natural gas to Project Kilby, a massive West Texas AI data center built by Microsoft. Located in Reeves County, this “behind-the-meter” plant will generate 2.67 gigawatts of electricity directly for the data center, bypassing the traditional power grid when it begins delivering power in 2028.

Gold:

Gold started the week off right, closing 0.89% higher at $4,189, while Silver was last seen at $65.03, up 0.49%. Energy strategists pointed to the hefty pullback in crude oil prices following a 60-day roadmap toward a peace deal between the US and Iran in Switzerland. Easing geopolitical tensions can reduce inflation risk premiums and provide precious metals with relief from interest rates.

Crypto:

Crypto markets moved quietly higher Monday as easing geopolitical tensions boosted investor confidence, with Bitcoin holding its ground above $64,000. BTC opened around $63,242 before climbing to $65,218, while Ethereum shook off early weakness to reach $1,775. The broader market followed suit, with altcoins gaining ground and ETFs tied to XRP, Solana, and Hyperliquid drawing notable inflows. At 8 AM EDT, Bitcoin traded at $62,360 while Ethereum traded at $1,657.

24/7 Wall St. reviews dozens of analyst research reports every day to identify fresh investment ideas for investors and traders alike. These daily analyst notes include recommendations on stocks to buy, sell, or avoid, as well as new coverage initiations. No single analyst report should ever be the sole basis for buying or selling a stock.

Here are some of the best Wall Street analyst upgrades, downgrades, and initiations seen on Tuesday, June 23, 2026. 

Upgrades:

• American Healthcare REIT (NYSE: AHR) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup, with a $55 target price.
• International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, which lifted the price target for the legacy tech giant to $291 from $270.
• Qiagen NV (NYSE: QGEN) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, which nudged the price target for the stock to $42 from $40.
• Synopsys (NASDAQ: SNPS) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler, which raised the target price for the shares to $550 from $450.
• Target (NYSE: TGT) was raised to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research, with a $162 price target.

Downgrades:

• Arcosa (NYSE: ACA) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Texas Capital, with a $150 target price.
• Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI) was downgraded to In Line from Outperform at Evercore ISI, with a $230 target price.
• Nike (NYSE: NKE) was downgraded to In Line from Outperform at Evercore ISI, with a $46 target price, down from $57, for the sports apparel and shoe giant.
• Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROST) was cut to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo, with an unchanged $245 target price.
• Sabra Health Care REIT (NASDAQ: SBRA) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup, which trimmed the target price for the stock to $19 from $24.  

Initiations:

• Centene (NYSE: CNC) was started with a Sector Perform rating at RBC Capital, which has a $70 target price for the stock.
• Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT) was initiated with a Hold rating at Freedom Capital, with a $105 target price objective.
• GE Healthcare Technologies (NASDAQ: GEHC) was initiated with an Outperform rating at RBC Capital, with an $80 target price.
• Permian Resources (NYSE: PR) was initiated with an Outperform rating at Evercore ISI, which has a $25 target price for the shares.
• Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) was started with a Neutral rating at Susquehanna, with a $170 target price. 
  
  

The post Here Are Tuesday’s Best Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Centene, Darden Restaurants, Flutter Entertainment, GE Healthcare, IBM, Nike, SpaceX, Synopsys, Target, and More appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

CNBC’s Brian Sullivan walked viewers through a landmark energy agreement that paints the picture for how much electricity the AI buildout actually needs. Chevron has signed a 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft to supply natural-gas-fired electricity to a Microsoft data center in far west Texas, about an hour southwest of Odessa. According to Sullivan, the project will deliver 2.7 gigawatts of capacity, roughly the equivalent of two million homes’ worth of power, and represents “one of the first we’ve seen of its kind, certainly of its size, by Chevron.”

Four publicly traded names sit at the center of the project: Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), GE Vernova (NYSE:GEV), and Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT). Sullivan noted that Caterpillar and GE Vernova supply the turbines that convert natural gas into electricity for the facility, while Chevron supplies the molecules from its Permian Basin position.

What the Deal Looks Like in the Filings

In its Q1 2026 8-K, Chevron disclosed an “exclusivity agreement with Microsoft” and Engine No. 1 for a power generation project in West Texas. The branded version, Project Kilby, will be operated through Chevron’s Energy Forge One LLC in partnership with Joulent, targeting a Final Investment Decision by the end of 2026 and delivering first power in 2028. According to Chevron’s press release, the project’s local impact figures include over $10 billion in expected tax revenue and almost 2,000 jobs.

For Chevron, this is a meaningful new growth wedge on top of an already-strong operating base. CEO Mike Wirth said, “2025 was a year of significant achievement. We successfully integrated Hess, started up major projects, delivered record production, and reorganized our business.” The company posted record full-year 2025 production of 3,723 MBOED, $33.9 billion in operating cash flow, and a 39th consecutive annual dividend increase. Shares closed at $173.63 on June 18, up 22.08% over the past year.

Why Microsoft Is Locking Up Power for Two Decades

The scale of Microsoft’s AI infrastructure spend explains the urgency. Satya Nadella told investors that “our AI business surpassed an annual revenue run rate of $37 billion, up 123% year-over-year.” Capital expenditures hit $30.88 billion in fiscal Q3 2026, up 84.39% year over year, with commercial remaining performance obligations of $627 billion. Shares trade at $379.40, down 21.2% year-to-date, as investors weigh capex intensity against future AI returns.

Other Picks-and-Shovels Beneficiaries

GE Vernova and Caterpillar are the most direct beneficiaries of agreements like this. On Q1 2026 results, GE Vernova CEO Scott Strazik said, “Our Q1 Electrification orders to data centers were more than full-year 2025 results,” with total Q1 orders of $18.3 billion and gas power gigawatts under contract growing sequentially from 83 to 100. Shares climbed 22.44% in the past week to $1,109.73, and 127% over one year.

Caterpillar CEO Joe Creed announced on the same earnings cycle that “Power generation grew 48%, driven by strong demand for large gensets and turbines used in data center applications with an increasing mix towards prime power,” and disclosed a new 2.1 gigawatt prime power agreement, the sixth of at least one gigawatt. Caterpillar stock sits at $985.82, up 176.97% year over year.

The Natural Gas Backdrop and What to Watch

Brian Sullivan framed the macro pressure bluntly: “The demand for natural gas from the United States, unfortunately and kind of sadly, will only go up.” He connected that to a major natural gas facility in Qatar that was damaged in March, with an attempted restart reportedly exploding on the day of his report, reinforcing the value of domestic supply. Henry Hub spot prices are near $3.06/MMBtu as of mid-June 2026, elevated relative to the 2024 baseline, following a brief January 2026 spike to $30.72/MMBtu.

Traditional oil and gas companies are increasingly becoming infrastructure providers for AI data centers, while equipment suppliers benefit from years of contracted demand. Investors should watch for a final investment decision by year-end, potential opposition from West Texas communities over water and land use, and whether other energy producers follow Chevron’s lead by signing long-term power agreements tied to the growing AI investment cycle.

The post Microsoft Signs 20-Year Power Deal With Chevron Showing How Far AI’s Energy Needs Have Grown appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Uncle Ralph owns a few rental properties, drives an old truck, and is rumored to be worth a fortune. At family gatherings, people joke about being remembered in the will. The problem is he may live another 20 years, spend more than expected, or leave the money somewhere else entirely.

The math suggests a better plan: become Uncle Ralph yourself. A dividend portfolio sized to your income target can generate cash every quarter, every year, without depending on someone else’s lifespan or estate plan.

Here is the engine behind the entire strategy. Take the annual income you want, divide by the yield your portfolio earns, and that is the amount of capital you need to build.

The Inheritance Reality Check

The Uncle Ralph example is tongue in cheek, but it points to a real phenomenon. Many people who have not saved enough for retirement quietly assume an inheritance will eventually arrive from grandparents, parents, or another relative. They may never say it out loud, but the expected inheritance becomes a de facto retirement plan.

The problem is that most inheritances are smaller than imagined and arrive later than expected. Many are less than $50,000 and do not arrive until the heir is already in their 60s, long after the years when the money could have meaningfully changed a career path, accelerated retirement savings, or paid off a mortgage. Nursing homes, assisted living, hospice care, medical bills, and simple longevity can dramatically reduce an estate before it reaches the next generation. Some inheritances never materialize at all. Planning around one means tying your financial future to someone else’s spending decisions, lifespan, and estate plan.

The Capital Required to Become Your Own Rich Uncle

So what does it actually take to become your own rich uncle? The table below shows the capital required to generate different levels of annual portfolio income at a range of yields.

Every row is a real choice with real consequences. The 4.5% 10-year Treasury yield is the financial world’s gravitational pull. Yields far above it usually require more risk, while yields below it often depend on growth to make the math work over time.

The Conservative Tier: 3% to 4%

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) just raised its payout to $1.34 quarterly, its 64th consecutive annual increase. NextEra Energy is guiding to roughly 10% dividend growth through 2026 on the back of a 33 GW renewables backlog. Chevron (NYSE:CVX) pays $1.78 per quarter and returned over $5 billion to shareholders for the 16th straight quarter. Yields here sit near 3% to 4%, capital required is highest, and the principal generally appreciates alongside the income.

The Moderate Tier: 5% to 7%

Net-lease REITs, preferred shares, investment-grade corporate bond funds, and high-dividend equity funds live here. Realty Income (NYSE:O) yields roughly 5% and just declared its 670th consecutive monthly dividend, with portfolio occupancy at 99%. The tradeoff is real: dividend growth slows, and inflation, currently running with Core PCE in the 90th percentile of its recent range, eats more of the income each year.

The Aggressive Tier: 8% to 12%

Tobacco, midstream MLPs, business development companies, and mortgage REITs cluster here. Altria (NYSE:MO) pays $1.06 quarterly with the dividend up from $0.98 to $1.06 in 18 months. Energy Transfer distributes $0.3375 per unit after seven consecutive quarterly raises, though the K-1 tax form and MLP structure add complexity. Distributions can be cut, and principal can erode even while checks arrive.

What Monthly Contributions Actually Build

Assuming an 8% total return with dividends reinvested, here is what consistent contributions become over 30 years:

1. $500 per month grows to roughly $745,000. At a 5% yield, that funds about $37,000 of annual income, replacing a part-time job for life.
2. $1,000 per month grows to roughly $1.49 million. At 5%, that produces $74,000 a year, near the U.S. median household income.
3. $2,000 per month grows to roughly $2.98 million. At 5%, that pays $149,000 annually, the income of a senior professional, without selling a share.

Reinvested dividends do most of the heavy lifting in the final decade, which is why starting at 35 instead of 45 often doubles the result.

Three Things to Do This Week

1. Pick your real income number based on what you spend each year, not what you earn. Divide it by 0.05 to see what a moderate-yield portfolio needs to hold.
2. Set a monthly auto-contribution, even $250, into a brokerage account with dividend reinvestment switched on. The schedule matters more than the amount.
3. Compare a 3.5% dividend-growth holding against a 10% high-yield holding over a 10-year total-return window. Let the compounding decide your tier.

Finally, if you’re going to become your own rich uncle, casually mention at family gatherings that your latest checkup was excellent, longevity runs in the family, and the contents of your will are confidential.

The post Don’t Wait For Your Rich Uncle To Die. Build Your Own Inheritance With This Portfolio appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE) has had a volatile two months. XLE climbed to $61.29 on May 19 as Brent crude touched $124.61 in early April on the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, then gave back 12% in a month as crude collapsed toward the mid-$80s. The fund is still up 21% year to date, but the round trip tracked oil almost tick for tick, and the next leg depends on whether the geopolitical risk premium stays in the barrel.

The fund in one sentence

XLE is a market-cap-weighted basket of S&P 500 energy names offering cheap, liquid exposure to U.S. integrated oils, E&P, refining, and midstream at a 0.08% expense ratio. The catch is concentration. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) sits at 23.7% and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) at 17.6%, so two stocks drive 41% of every move. Add ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Williams (NYSE:WMB), and Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) and you reach roughly 56% of the fund in five tickers.

The macro factor that matters: where Brent settles by year-end

The single variable with the most leverage on XLE over the next 12 months is Brent crude’s path as Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizes. The EIA’s May Short-Term Energy Outlook expects Brent to average around $106 in May and June, then fall to $89 in Q4 2026 and $79 in 2027 as Middle East production returns and global inventories rebuild. Brent has already moved faster than that schedule, printing $93.76 the week of June 12.

The threshold to watch is $80 Brent. Chevron’s Q1 result was built on $81 average Brent; ConocoPhillips realized $50.36 per BOE at that price. A drop into the $70s would compress upstream cash flow across XOM, CVX, and COP simultaneously, which is most of the fund. Check the EIA weekly petroleum status report on Wednesdays and the monthly STEO; whether EIA’s 2027 $79 forecast drifts lower signals risk. The 2014-2016 cycle is the cautionary parallel: a similar OPEC supply normalization took XLE from roughly $100 to under $50.

The fund-specific factor: timing-effect noise versus underlying earnings

Q1 reports inside XLE were optically ugly for a reason worth understanding. Exxon booked $3.88 billion in unfavorable mark-to-market timing on unsettled derivatives plus $706 million in Middle East physical losses, dragging headline net income to $4.18 billion even as underlying earnings rose to $8.77 billion. Chevron carried roughly $2.9 billion of similar timing effects, and Phillips 66 absorbed $839 million in derivative hedge losses from a LIFO mismatch as commodity prices rose.

These hedges unwind as physical inventory clears. Q2 earnings, reported in late July and early August, should show meaningful reversal if oil settles where it is now. Watch the segment-level “identified items” tables in each 8-K filing. If timing effects flip positive while production volumes hold, the integrated majors will print numbers that look better than the underlying barrel price would suggest, and XLE’s two largest holdings will carry the fund. If hedges keep generating losses into Q3, the buyback pace at Exxon ($20 billion guided for 2026) and Chevron’s 16-quarter streak of $5 billion-plus returns become the marginal source of support.

A quieter corner worth watching

Williams is the holding that does not behave like the rest. WMB is up 23% YTD on natural gas demand from data centers, with over $7 billion of power innovation projects in execution including the $2.3 billion Project Neo. For investors who want the AI power-demand thesis without oil price beta, the Alerian MLP and pure midstream ETFs offer cleaner exposure than XLE.

What to monitor

The signal for the next 12 months is Brent’s path toward the EIA’s $79 average for 2027, watched through the monthly STEO and weekly EIA inventory reports. The fund-level tell is whether Q2 and Q3 filings from Exxon and Chevron show the timing-effect drag reversing; if not, 41% of XLE fights an accounting headwind even if the barrel cooperates.

The post XLE’s Concentration Risk Meets Oil’s Next Move: What to Monitor in June appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

While the hopes for a permanent cease-fire and a cessation of hostilities are the ultimate end-game plan for Iran and the Middle East, the reality is that while spot prices have plummeted to the lowest level since March, there will be an incredible amount of work and resources to put the supply chain and the storage market back to pre-war levels. Given those challenges, many on Wall Street expect energy complex pricing to be higher than they had projected. In fact, before the war with Iran, estimates for Brent crude ranged from $50 to $60 for 2026; now those numbers are anywhere from $60 to $80 for 2026, and about the same for 2027, depending on which bank you put your chips on. The reality is that energy, which has outperformed recently, may continue that streak for the rest of this year and into 2027.

We read an interesting piece from Morning Bullets, which noted that while oil closed the week lower, with WTI under pressure, you shouldn’t let that headline drop mislead you. A busier Strait of Hormuz, layered with shifting restrictions and rising tensions, is precisely the kind of setup where one unexpected incident can rapidly escalate into a full-blown pricing shock. Delays compound, insurance costs surge, tankers reroute, and suddenly the market is scrambling for immediate barrels. This dynamic also explains why energy equities often decouple from crude prices. The sector isn’t just trading the spot or front-month contract; it’s pricing the full distribution of potential outcomes. When tail risks increase, high-quality producers and midstream assets with strong, resilient cash flows can attract aggressive buying, even as futures drift sideways or lower.

We decided to screen our 24/7 Wall St. energy stock database, looking for companies that still deliver large and dependable dividends while remaining good investments on a valuation basis. We remain quite positive on the mega-cap integrated giants; they have had spectacular runs, but all have pulled back sharply from the late March highs and are offering tremendous entry points and dividend yields.

Six companies that offer shareholders some of the best valuations currently are at the top of our strong buy list for investors. All still offer outstanding upside potential to the posted Wall Street target prices. All six are also rated Buy at the top Wall Street firms we cover at 24/7 Wall St.

Why do we cover the high-yielding energy dividend stocks?

Since 1926, dividends have accounted for approximately 32% of the S&P 500’s total return, while capital appreciation has accounted for 68%. Therefore, sustainable dividend income and the potential for capital appreciation are essential to total return expectations. A study by Hartford Funds, in collaboration with Ned Davis Research, found that dividend stocks delivered an annualized return of 9.18% over the past 50 years (1973 to 2023). Over the same timeline, this was more than double the annualized return for non-payers (3.95%).

Integrated Oil Mega-Caps

Chevron

Chevron (NYSE: CVX) is an American multinational energy company primarily focused on oil and gas. This integrated giant is a safer option for investors looking to position themselves in the energy sector and pays a substantial 3.84% dividend, which was raised by 5% earlier this year. Chevron operates integrated energy and chemicals businesses worldwide through its two segments.

The Upstream segment is involved in the following:

• Exploration, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas
• Processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas
• Transportation of crude oil through pipelines, and transportation and storage
• Marketing of natural gas, as well as operating a gas-to-liquids plant

The Downstream segment engages in:

• Refining crude oil into petroleum products
• Marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants
• Manufacturing and marketing renewable fuels
• Transporting crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car
• Manufacturing and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives

It also involves cash management, debt financing, insurance operations, real estate, and technology businesses.

Chevron completed its $53 billion acquisition of Hess in July 2025. The merger went forward following a favorable arbitration outcome against Exxon Mobil regarding Hess’s lucrative offshore oil assets in Guyana. The purchase has strengthened an already solid balance sheet and earnings.

Mizuho has an Overweight rating and a price target of $230.

ConocoPhillips

The big always gets bigger, and this company completed a $22.5 billion purchase of Marathon Oil in November of 2024. This deal added high-quality assets, particularly in the Eagle Ford and Bakken shales, to the company’s portfolio. ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is an exploration and production company with a rich dividend yield of 2.77%.

Its Alaska segment primarily explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs. The Lower 48 segment comprises operations in the 48 contiguous states of the United States and the Gulf of Mexico. Canadian operations consist of the Surmont oil sands development in Alberta, the liquids-rich Montney unconventional play in British Columbia, and commercial operations.

The Europe, Middle East, and North Africa segment consists of operations principally located in:

• The Norwegian sector of the North Sea
• The Norwegian Sea
• Qatar
• Libya
• Equatorial Guinea
• The United Kingdom

The Asia Pacific segment has exploration and production operations in China, Malaysia, and Australia, as well as commercial operations in China, Singapore, and Japan. The Other International segment includes interests in Colombia as well as contingencies associated with prior operations in other countries.

Jefferies has a Buy rating with a $161 target price.

Exxon Mobil

Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) manages an industry-leading portfolio of resources and is one of the world’s largest integrated fuels, lubricants, and chemical companies. The decline in oil prices presents investors with an excellent entry point, and they will likely seize the opportunity to secure a strong 2.87% dividend yield. Exxon is the world’s largest international integrated oil and gas company, exploring for and producing crude oil and natural gas in North and South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and elsewhere.

Exxon also manufactures and markets commodity petrochemicals, including olefins, aromatics, polyethylene, and polypropylene plastics, as well as specialty products. Additionally, the company transports and sells crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum products.

Top Wall Street analysts expect the company to remain a key beneficiary in a higher oil price environment, and most remain optimistic about the company’s sharp positive inflection in capital allocation strategy. The upstream portfolio offers leverage to a further demand recovery, and Exxon offers greater Downstream/Chemicals exposure than its peers.

Exxon completed its purchase of oil shale giant Pioneer Natural Resources in 2024 in an all-stock transaction valued at $59.5 billion. The deal created the largest U.S. oilfield producer and guarantees a decade of low-cost production.

Barclays has an Overweight rating on the shares, with a $182 target price.

High-Yielding Midstream MLPs

Energy Transfer

Energy Transfer (NYSE: ET) is one of North America’s largest and most diversified midstream energy companies. This top master limited partnership is a safe option for investors seeking energy exposure and income, as the company pays a 7.06% distribution yield. Energy Transfer owns and operates one of the largest and most diversified portfolios of energy assets in the United States, with a strategic footprint across all major domestic production basins.

The company is a publicly traded limited partnership with core operations that include:

• Complementary natural gas midstream, intrastate, and interstate transportation and storage assets
• Crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGL), and refined product transportation and terminalling assets
• NGL fractionation
• Various acquisition and marketing assets

Following the acquisition of Enable Partners in December 2021, Energy Transfer owns and operates over 114,000 miles of pipelines and related assets in 41 states, spanning all major U.S. producing regions and markets. This further solidifies its leadership position in the midstream sector. Through its ownership of Energy Transfer Operating, formerly known as Energy Transfer Partners, the company also owns Lake Charles LNG; the general partner interests, the incentive distribution rights, and 28.5 million standard units of Sunoco (NYSE: SUN); and the public partner interests and 39.7 million standard units of USA Compression Partners (NYSE: USAC).

Jefferies has a Buy rating on the shares, with a $23 target price.

Enterprise Products Partners

This top midstream giant is an American midstream natural gas and crude oil pipeline company headquartered in Houston, Texas. Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD) is one of the most extensive publicly traded energy partnerships, paying a reliable 5.88% dividend. The company’s debt-to-EBITDA ratio ranges from 3.1x to 3.4x, which is moderate for a midstream energy company, and its interest coverage ratio is 5x. It generates strong free cash flow, with an operating cash flow of approximately $8.8 billion, resulting in approximately $4.2 billion in free cash flow annually after deducting capital expenditures. Another significant benefit for shareholders is that most of the corporate debt is fixed-rate, thereby limiting the risk of rising interest rates.

Enterprise Products Partners provides various midstream energy services, including:

• Gathering
• Processing
• Transporting and storing natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGL), and fractionation
• Import and export terminalling
• Offshore production platform services

The company has four reportable business segments:

• Natural Gas Pipelines and Services
• NGL Pipelines and Services
• Petrochemical Services
• Crude Oil Pipelines and Services

One reason many analysts like the stock might be its distribution coverage ratio. The company’s coverage ratio is well above 1x, making it relatively less risky among the MLPs.

UBS has a Buy rating with a $45 price objective.

MPLX

MPLX (NYSE: MPLX) is a diversified, large-cap master limited partnership formed by Marathon Petroleum. This company is one of the top holdings in the Alerian MLP Energy Exchange-Traded Fund and pays a healthy 7.46% dividend. The company is primarily engaged in transporting crude oil and refined products, with terminals in the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast regions, and in natural gas gathering and processing in the Northeast, following its 2015 acquisition of MarkWest Energy.

The company’s assets include:

• Network of crude oil and refined product pipelines
• Inland marine business
• Light-product terminals
• Storage caverns
• Refinery tanks
• Docks
• Loading racks and associated piping
• Crude and light-product marine terminals

MPLX also owns:

• Crude oil and natural gas gathering systems
• Pipelines, natural gas, and NGL processing and fractionation facilities in key U.S. supply basins

Wells Fargo has a $61 target price to accompany its Overweight rating.

The post Energy’s Hottest Trade: 6 High-Yielding Integrateds and Midstream Giants Are All Strong Buys appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:DIA) has climbed about 7% year to date and is up almost 22% over the past year, but those returns hide a dramatic shift in what drives DIA. Because the Dow is price-weighted, the highest-priced stock carries the most influence, and Caterpillar’s (NYSE:CAT) 73% YTD surge to roughly $986 has turned a single industrial name into the most important holding. Anyone who owned DIA in January owns a meaningfully different portfolio today.

What Sits Inside DIA Right Now

DIA tracks the 30 blue chips of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, weighting each by share price rather than market cap. That mechanical quirk matters more in 2026 than it has in years. Caterpillar’s share price now dwarfs the other top-weighted names in the index. Apple sits at $298 despite its $4.4 trillion market cap, so the world’s largest company contributes less to a DIA trading day than a piece of yellow earthmoving equipment.

The dispersion under the hood is wide. Caterpillar is up 177% over the past twelve months, while Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) has dropped 21% YTD as investors digest its $30.9 billion quarterly capex bill. DIA’s smooth ride is the product of these forces canceling out.

The Macro Signal That Matters Most: Hyperscaler AI Capex

The single biggest macro variable for DIA over the next twelve months is the sustainability of hyperscaler AI spending. The same dollar drives both DIA’s largest price-weighted holding and its biggest tech weight. Caterpillar’s Power Generation revenue grew 41% to $2.82 billion last quarter, almost entirely on reciprocating engines sold for AI data center power. Microsoft’s AI run rate just hit $37 billion, up 123% year over year, and its $627 billion commercial backlog is the demand signal funding the whole chain.

The concrete number to anchor on: combined Microsoft, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Meta (NASDAQ:META) capex guidance at the next two earnings cycles (late July and late October on each company’s investor relations page). A guide-down of 10% or more on 2027 capex would hit Caterpillar’s Power Generation backlog and Microsoft’s Azure margin story in the same week, and DIA would feel both impacts at once. Through 2024 and 2025, every upward revision in hyperscaler capex correlated with a fresh leg up in CAT shares; a downward revision is the historical reverse.

The Fund-Specific Risk: One Stock Now Runs the Show

Price-weighting is the fund-specific factor to monitor. Because index weight resets only when a Dow component is added or removed, Caterpillar’s rally has compounded its influence with every uptick. A 10% pullback in CAT would now drag DIA roughly twice as hard as a 10% pullback in Apple, despite Apple’s vastly larger market capitalization.

The tell to monitor: S&P Dow Jones Indices announcement releases, which signal any reconstitution or stock split. Historically, when a Dow constituent’s price gets far enough out of line, the committee has added new names or the company has split its stock. Caterpillar has not split since 2005. Bookmark the S&P DJI press room and check it monthly. A CAT split or a Dow reconstitution would mechanically cut DIA’s industrial torque and lift Apple and Microsoft’s relative weight overnight.

Investors who want Dow exposure without the price-weighting quirk can look at the Invesco Dow Jones Industrial Average Dividend ETF (NYSEARCA:DJD), which weights Dow members by dividend yield and currently tilts toward Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) rather than Caterpillar.

The Bottom Line

If hyperscaler capex guidance holds at or above current trajectory through the next two earnings cycles, DIA’s two biggest engines, Caterpillar and Microsoft, both keep firing. The fund-specific signal: any S&P DJI announcement of a Dow reconstitution or a Caterpillar split would redistribute DIA’s exposure away from industrials, so that single press release could change this ETF’s character overnight.

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At $180.40, Chevron (NYSE:CVX) sits in a wait-and-see zone for many analysts. The integrated major has rallied hard off last summer’s lows, but a single quarter of cash flow data has changed how the dividend math looks.

Chevron is the second-largest U.S. integrated oil company, with upstream production now running at 3,858 MBOED after the Hess deal closed last summer. U.S. output has cleared 2 million barrels per day for three straight quarters, the Permian has hit 1 million BOE/day, and Kazakhstan’s TCO project is at nameplate.

The stock has retraced from a 52-week high of $212.76 as Brent has fallen from $138.21 in early April to $97.46 currently.

The Hess-Powered Cash Machine Argument

Bulls see a self-funding growth story. Production grew 15% year over year in Q1, adjusted EPS of $1.41 crushed the $0.97 consensus by 45.56%, and management is on track for $3 to $4 billion in structural cost reductions by year-end.

Valuation looks reasonable against the growth profile. The forward P/E of 13, EV/EBITDA of 10, and PEG of 0.755 suggest the market is pricing steady-state output, not the Guyana and Permian growth runway. Analysts carry a $216.04 average price target, implying 19.8% upside, with 18 of 25 analysts at Buy or Strong Buy.

The Negative Free Cash Flow Argument

Bears point to Q1 2026 free cash flow of negative $1.549 billion, operating cash flow collapse of 51.55% year over year to $2.514 billion, while Chevron paid out $3.526 billion in dividends plus $2.5 billion in buybacks. The gap was funded with debt.

The net debt ratio climbed to 17.9% from 10.4% pre-Hess. Full-year FCF coverage of the dividend has compressed from 3.42x in 2022 to 1.30x in 2025. With the EIA projecting Brent averaging $89/b in Q4 and $79/b in 2027, the FCF math gets harder.

The Patience Argument

The hold case sits between these. Q1 cash flow was inflated by $2.9 billion of unfavorable timing effects, a $360 million legal reserve, and $223 million in FX headwinds that should reverse. Full-year 2025 still produced $16.6 billion in FCF and a 39th consecutive dividend increase.

Fresh capital here underwrites both falling forward oil prices and a payout ratio exceeding organic cash generation. Watching the next two quarters of FCF prints, Brent’s path toward the EIA’s $79 average in 2027, and any movement on the buyback cadence is the right posture.

What the Numbers Say

Chevron trades at $180.40 against a consensus target of $216.04, implying roughly 19.8% upside. Coverage is wide with 25 analysts in the consensus.

• Strong Buy: 5
• Buy: 13
• Hold: 6
• Sell: 1

Shares are up 20.61% year to date versus 10.69% for the S&P 500, and up 28.82% over the past year against the index’s 26.44%. The 3.72% dividend yield and trailing P/E of 33 on $5.75 in TTM EPS tell the cyclical story. At $180.40, Chevron is a Hold. The bull and bear cases are both grounded in real numbers, and neither is decisive at this price.

The Verdict: Patience Over Conviction

Buying fresh means underwriting FCF recovery at the same time the EIA expects Brent to fall toward $79 in 2027. Selling means walking away from a 39-year dividend streak, double-digit production growth, and synergy capture barely started.

Existing holders are being paid a reliable income stream to wait. Two clean prints of positive FCF coverage above 1.3x, a moderation in buyback pace, or a cyclical pullback that anchors the asset near key technical support at $155.00 would strengthen the bullish case. A second consecutive negative-FCF quarter alongside Brent breaking below $80 would strengthen the bearish case.

The 3.72% yield pays holders to wait, the beta of 0.472 keeps drawdowns contained, and the structural cost program should add visible margin support over the next two quarters. The cost of acting prematurely is higher than standing pat.

Chevron at $180 looks fundamentally intact but priced rich enough that a payout metric turning red matters.

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Most Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHD) owners assume they are buying broad market diversification. The latest Schwab fact sheet tells a different story. SCHD’s top 10 holdings now account for roughly 42% of the fund’s $95.7 billion in net assets, well above the roughly 30% top-10 weight typical of large-cap dividend peers. SCHD still earns its reputation as a low-cost income workhorse, but the concentration question changes who should treat it as a core holding versus a sleeve.

What SCHD is built to do

SCHD tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index, which screens for cash flow to debt, return on equity, dividend yield, and five-year dividend growth, then reconstitutes once a year. The screen is the point: it filters out high yielders that cannot sustain payouts and tilts the portfolio toward established cash generators. The return engine is plain. You get dividends from roughly 100 quality-screened companies plus whatever capital appreciation those businesses produce. No options overlay, no leverage, no derivatives.

The expense ratio of 0.06% puts SCHD in the cheapest tier of any dividend ETF, and the trailing yield sits near 3.2% based on recent quarterly distributions, still well above the S&P 500’s roughly 1.3%. The fund has grown its dividend at an annualized rate of about 11.6% over the past five years, which is the kind of compounding that turns a modest starting yield into a much stronger income stream over time.

Does the strategy deliver?

SCHD has returned about 22% year to date through mid-July, outpacing both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 in 2026. The five-year price gain trails the S&P 500’s roughly 90% over the same window, which is the honest tradeoff: the dividend-quality screen kept SCHD out of the mega-cap tech names that drove most of the index’s gains in recent years. Add a decade of compounded dividends to the 229% ten-year price gain, and the absolute result still works well for income investors.

Through the article’s original publication in June 2026, several top holdings were driving the rebound. ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) had surged 29% year to date, Chevron (NYSE:CVX) was up 27%, and Altria (NYSE:MO) was up 26%. Those gains reflect SCHD’s former heavy energy tilt. The March 2026 annual reconstitution changed the picture significantly.

The March 2026 reconstitution and what it means now

The annual index reconstitution, effective March 23, 2026, reshaped SCHD’s top holdings more than any rebalance in recent years. The fund added 25 new names, including UnitedHealth Group, Abbott Laboratories, Procter & Gamble, and Qualcomm, while removing 22 holdings. AbbVie and Cisco Systems both exited the fund entirely. Bristol-Myers Squibb, Lockheed Martin, and Altria remain in the portfolio but dropped out of the top 10.

The sector impact was sharp. Energy exposure fell by roughly 8%, pulling the sector from a near-dominant ~20% weight to closer to 15%. Healthcare climbed to roughly 20% of assets, now the fund’s largest sector. The chart below reflects the December 31, 2025 snapshot used in the original analysis; the post-reconstitution top 10 looks considerably different.

As of July 20, 2026, Schwab’s own holdings page shows Abbott Laboratories leading the fund at 4.59%, followed by UnitedHealth Group at 4.40%, Merck at 4.27%, Amgen at 4.23%, Home Depot at 4.18%, Procter & Gamble at 4.18%, Coca-Cola at 4.10%, Chevron at 3.93%, PepsiCo at 3.74%, and Verizon at 3.65%. The top 10 collectively account for about 41.8% of net assets, essentially unchanged from before the reconstitution in percentage terms. The names inside that concentration, however, shifted toward healthcare and away from energy and tobacco.

The concentration tradeoff

The 42% top-10 weight is a byproduct of the yield-and-quality screen plus annual reconstitution, not a random outcome. The fund holds essentially no real estate and minimal utilities, and it now tilts most heavily toward healthcare and consumer staples. The narrow band among the top holdings means a single-sector shock, whether a major Medicare policy shift affecting UnitedHealth or an Abbott product recall, hits the fund harder than its 100-stock roster would suggest.

Three risks matter for a holder. A healthcare regulatory event or a tobacco regulatory shock now hits the fund harder than an oil-price collapse once did, given the sector reweighting. The absence of meaningful tech exposure means SCHD will continue lagging in markets driven by AI and semiconductors. And annual reconstitution can swap out names in size, generating capital-gains events for holders in taxable accounts. The exits of AbbVie and Cisco in 2026 illustrated this: two large positions unwound in a single rebalance cycle.

Who SCHD still fits

SCHD works as a dividend-growth core for accumulators reinvesting distributions and for retirees who want a rising income stream paired with rock-bottom fees. The $0.26 Q1 2026 distribution is roughly double the $0.12 paid in late 2011, which is the kind of payout growth income investors need to stay ahead of inflation. Abbott Laboratories, UnitedHealth Group, Merck, and the rest of the current top tier now anchor the income engine where AbbVie and Cisco once did.

Investors who already own a total-market or S&P 500 fund can pair SCHD with it cleanly because the dividend screen excludes most of the mega-cap growth names that dominate broad benchmarks. Investors whose entire equity allocation sits in SCHD should add a broad growth or international dividend fund to offset the healthcare and staples concentration that now characterizes the portfolio. Treat SCHD as a high-quality income sleeve that happens to concentrate its bets, and it earns its place. Mistake it for a fully diversified core, and the next sector drawdown will cost more than the dividend pays.

Editor’s note: This update refreshes the fund’s net assets from $71.6 billion to $95.7 billion (as of July 2026), corrects the trailing yield from approximately 3.9% to approximately 3.2%, incorporates the March 2026 annual reconstitution that removed AbbVie and Cisco from the fund and elevated Abbott Laboratories and UnitedHealth Group to the top two positions, and updates the year-to-date return figure and sector allocation to reflect the post-reconstitution portfolio.

The post SCHD Now Concentrates 42% of Your Money in Just 10 Stocks. Here Is Who Should Still Own It appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is an integrated energy major whose July 2025 Hess acquisition added Guyana, Bakken, and Gulf of America assets. With WTI near $95 and the Fed funds rate sitting at 3.75% after 75 basis points of cuts, the question I want to answer is whether income investors can trust the payout.

Dividend Snapshot

Cash Flow Covers the Dividend, Earnings Do Not

On FY2025 diluted EPS of $6.63 against roughly $6.84 in dividends paid per share, the earnings payout ratio runs about 103%. That looks alarming until you look at cash. Chevron generated record operating cash flow of $33.9 billion and free cash flow of $16.6 billion against roughly $13.6 billion in dividend payments.

A Fortress Balance Sheet Absorbs the Hess Bill

The net debt ratio climbed to 17.9% after Hess, but interest coverage of 13.70x means servicing the debt is not eating into dividend cash.

39 Years of Raises and Counting

Chevron maintained payouts through the 2020 COVID downturn and the 2014-2016 oil crash, which is the track record income investors care about.

Management Calls Capital Returns “Dependable”

CEO Mike Wirth on the Q1 2026 call: “This disciplined performance supports dependable cash generation, enabling us to continue returning significant capital to shareholders, while investing in advantaged long-lived assets.” Chevron just completed its 16th consecutive quarter returning over $5 billion to shareholders.

The Verdict: Safe, With One Eye on Oil

Dividend Safety Rating: Safe. The FCF payout ratio of 82% is elevated, but coverage from operating cash flow at 2.5x, a 1.08x net leverage ratio, and 39 years of uninterrupted increases give Chevron real margin of safety. The dividend looks well-supported if Brent stays above $70 and the $3 to $4 billion structural cost reduction program lands on time. The setup looks riskier if oil retraces to the $55 lows seen in December 2025 for an extended stretch, because another year of triple-digit earnings payout would force buybacks down before the dividend. For now, the check clears.

The post Chevron Stock Is an Absolute Steal at 11 Times Forward Earnings appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Buffett famously refuses to pay a dividend on Berkshire Hathaway because he believes he can compound your cash better than you can. The VistaShares Target 15 Berkshire Select Income ETF (NYSEARCA:OMAH) disagrees, politely. OMAH holds a Berkshire-style basket of value names and overlays an options strategy designed to push out a 15% annual distribution, paid monthly. The result: you get Warren’s shopping list, plus an income stream he would personally never authorize.

The fund and the trade it makes

The underlying portfolio leans on the cash-flow machines Berkshire actually owns. Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO | KO Price Prediction), American Express (NYSE:AXP), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) anchor the lineup. Defensive consumer, premium credit, money-center banking, integrated energy. Boring on purpose. The options overlay sells calls against the basket and uses synthetic positions to manufacture the rest of the yield when option premium runs thin. The fund carries an expense ratio of 0.95%, which is typical for actively managed options-income ETFs but worth factoring into any yield comparison.

Whether the 15% target actually pays

Over the past year OMAH returned roughly 13% in price terms, before distributions. Berkshire shares, by contrast, were roughly flat over the same window. That gap matters because the standard knock on income-overlay funds is they bleed net asset value to fund the payout. OMAH’s price held up while Berkshire drifted, largely because the underlying basket delivered. The boring names, CVX, BAC, and KO, did the actual work.

The 15% figure on the label is a stated target with no guarantee attached. VistaShares constructs the distribution from option premium, dividends out of the holdings (KO yields about 2.6%, AXP about 1.1%), and, when the math falls short, return of capital. Return of capital is the fund handing you back a slice of your own principal and calling it income. If markets drift sideways for a year and call premium dries up, the monthly check still arrives, and NAV pays the bill. OMAH’s year-to-date price gain suggests the construction has held together through 2026, though a sustained bear market remains the real stress test. The fund’s rapid growth to nearly $1 billion in assets under management since its March 2025 launch signals that income-focused investors have accepted the trade-off.

The tradeoffs you accept

Three constraints define the product. The first is capped upside: short calls cut off the right tail. Berkshire has compounded roughly 70% over five years and about 240% over ten, but an options-overlay version of that basket would have surrendered most of the late-stage gains. The fund is built for a flat-to-rising market and gives up the melt-ups. In a year where the S&P 500 rips 25% on a tech-led rally, OMAH structurally cannot keep pace because call writing caps participation above the strike. That is the deal: trade upside for cash flow today.

The second constraint is tax friction. Monthly distributions in a taxable account get complicated fast, especially when part of the payout is option premium taxed at ordinary income rates and another slice is return of capital that reduces your cost basis rather than counting as qualified dividend income. Hold OMAH in an IRA or accept the drag. The third is the Berkshire impersonation problem. The basket borrows Buffett’s holdings but cannot borrow his process. The real conglomerate runs on insurance float, has the ability to acquire a railroad or a chemicals business on its own terms, and currently sits on nearly $400 billion in cash and short-term Treasury bills waiting for the right pitch. Now led by CEO Greg Abel following Buffett’s transition, Berkshire has maintained that discipline even as it posted record operating earnings. OMAH owns the names, not the operator or the balance sheet behind them.

Who should own OMAH

OMAH fits a retiree or pure income investor who has already accepted the terms. You want a monthly check denominated in dollars from companies that sell soda, swipe credit cards, and pump oil. You plan to spend the income, so surrendering Berkshire’s long-run compounding upside is a fair trade. A 5% to 10% sleeve alongside a broad index fund and a core bond allocation is the sensible dose, and the monthly cadence pairs cleanly with monthly bills in retirement. The right mental model is to treat OMAH as a fixed-income substitute rather than an equity growth vehicle, because the distribution profile behaves more like a high-yield bond than a conventional stock fund.

Anyone still in accumulation mode owns the wrong fund here. Berkshire’s ten-year total return of roughly 240% with zero distribution-tax drag is the actual Buffett playbook, and reinvesting forced distributions from OMAH inside a taxable account creates friction that compounds against you over a multi-decade horizon. For income seekers who want value-style holdings without the options engineering, a low-cost dividend ETF yields less but compounds without the synthetic plumbing or the return-of-capital footnotes that appear every January on the 1099. The right answer depends entirely on whether you need the cash now or later.

OMAH is unambiguously a now-cash product.

Editor’s note: This article has been updated to reflect Berkshire Hathaway’s record Q1 2026 cash and Treasury bill position of $397.4 billion, Greg Abel’s tenure as CEO, OMAH’s expense ratio of 0.95%, the fund’s growth to nearly $1 billion in assets under management, and a refreshed Berkshire ten-year total return of approximately 240%.

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The three biggest U.S. oil majors are sending mixed signals at current prices: Chevron (NYSE:CVX) at $185.82 looks constructive, Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) at $146.60 looks constructive, and Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) at $55.47 warrants patience. A WTI spike to $114.58/bbl in April and a still-elevated $95.00/bbl print in early June have reset the math for every barrel produced.

Brent risk premiums tied to the Strait of Hormuz disruption have the EIA modeling Brent near $106/b in May and June, easing to $89/b in 4Q26. That window is when the integrated majors print cash. The question is who turns it into per-share value.

Chevron: Constructive on Hess, Permian, and the Cash Return Engine

Chevron trades at a trailing P/E of 33 but a forward P/E of 14, with a PEG of 0.82 and a dividend yield of 3.65%. Q1 adjusted EPS hit $1.41 vs. $0.97 expected, a sixth straight beat, with worldwide production up 15% to 3,858 MBOED on the Hess deal.

The bear case is real: GAAP net income fell 37% YoY and free cash flow turned negative on timing effects. But 18 Buy ratings against 6 Holds and 1 Sell, and an analyst target of $216.04, frame meaningful upside from here.

At $185.82, the Chevron setup looks constructive. The Hess integration and a Permian asset running at 1M BOE/day give CVX volume leverage into a tight oil tape, while $3 to $4 billion in structural cost savings drop to the bottom line by year-end.

Shares are up 24.23% YTD and 33.72% over one year, comfortably ahead of the S&P 500. A 39-year dividend streak and 16 straight quarters above $5B in capital returns reward patient holders.

Exxon Mobil: Constructive on Scale, Guyana, and the LNG Pivot

Exxon trades at a trailing P/E of 26, forward P/E of 13, and a yield of 2.69%. Q1 adjusted EPS came in at $1.16 vs. $1.01 expected, underlying earnings rose to $8.77 billion, and the company is targeting $20 billion in buybacks for the year.

Advantaged assets are now 59% of production, Guyana sits near 875K bpd, and Golden Pass LNG just shipped its first cargo. Analysts split 11 Buy, 13 Hold, 1 Sell, with a target of $169.91.

At $146.60, the Exxon Mobil setup looks constructive. The bear argument centers on a 40% effective tax rate and chemical weakness, both real.

But shares are up 23.46% YTD and 38.36% over the past year, outpacing the index, on the highest production in over 40 years. Operating leverage into the EIA’s $106 Brent window plus a 43-year dividend track record is the cleanest balance sheet in the sector.

Occidental: Patience Until the Debt Target Lands

OXY is the trickiest call. Shares are up 36.18% YTD, beating both peers and the S&P 500, helped by an 80.33% Q1 EPS beat and a Berkshire-backed OxyChem sale that cut principal debt by $15 billion.

But trailing P/E sits at 76, the dividend yield is just 1.7%, and the analyst split is 8 Buy, 15 Hold, 3 Sell with a target of $65.50.

At $55.47, Occidental warrants patience. The deleveraging story is working, production at 1,426 Mboed is beating guidance, and insiders are net buyers.

The trigger to get more constructive is hitting the $10 billion principal debt target with WTI holding above $80. The trigger to turn cautious is OPEC+ adding barrels into a softening 2027 tape, where EIA sees Brent at $79/b. Until one of those breaks, patience costs less than conviction.

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If you put $10,000 into the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE) on the last trading day of 2025 and forgot about it, you would be sitting on roughly $13,131 as of the June 8 close. The same $10,000 in the S&P 500 would be worth about $10,840. Energy, the sector everyone wrote off as a value trap stuck behind the AI trade, is up about 31% year to date against 8.4% for SPY. That gap, almost 23 points in five months, is the single most surprising scoreboard in the 2026 market.

The headline you may have seen says 29%. The actual number is a touch better. XLE opened the year at $44.42 and closed Monday at $58.33. Over one year, the fund is up about 44%, versus roughly 23% for SPY. Over five years, it has more than doubled, up about 152%. The fund is a plain-vanilla SPDR with a fee that rounds to almost nothing, and it does one thing well, which is concentrate your money in a handful of the biggest US oil and gas names. Top of the book is heavy. Exxon at 23.7% and Chevron at 17.6% together are 41.3% of the fund. Add ConocoPhillips and EOG and you have most of the explanation.

What Actually Did the Work

The mechanism is straightforward. Sector concentration met a sector-specific catalyst, and the catalyst is geopolitics. According to the EIA, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to shipping traffic since late February following military action, removing access to a corridor that carried nearly 20% of global oil supply. Brent went vertical. Daily spot prices touched $138 per barrel on April 7, the highest since the weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine, and the April monthly average came in around $117 per barrel. WTI followed, with the YTD high at $114.58 on the same day.

Prices have since cooled. Brent printed $98.29 on June 1 and WTI sat at $95.96, which the St. Louis Fed places in the 82.8th percentile of its trailing 12-month range. That is the important part. Even after a meaningful pullback, crude is trading well above where the integrated majors built their 2026 budgets. The 12-month WTI average is $72.26, and current spot is more than $20 above it.

Now look at how the top holdings translated that into earnings. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) posted adjusted EPS of $1.16 versus a $1.01 consensus, a 15% beat and the fourth straight. Underlying earnings rose to $8.77 billion from $7.58 billion year over year, even after roughly $3.88 billion in unfavorable derivative timing and $706 million in Middle East supply-disruption losses washed through the GAAP line. CEO Darren Woods told investors that "ExxonMobil is a fundamentally stronger company than it was just a few years ago, built to perform through disruption and across market cycles." The buyback authorization for the year is $20 billion. The stock is up 27.8% YTD.

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) did even better at the EPS line, with $1.41 versus $0.97 expected, a 46% beat and the sixth in a row. Production jumped 15% year over year to 3,858 MBOED as the Hess deal bedded in, and US output cleared 2 million barrels per day for a third straight quarter. The company returned $2.5 billion in buybacks in the quarter, raised the dividend for a 39th consecutive year, and Mike Wirth framed the result as evidence that the portfolio held up "despite heightened geopolitical volatility and related supply disruptions." Shares are up about 27% YTD.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) and EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), the two big E&P names in the top ten, told a parallel story with a different texture. COP beat by roughly 12% on EPS, kept its target of returning 45% of cash from operations to shareholders, and pulled Qatar out of 2026 production guidance because of the Middle East situation. EOG benefited from the Encino acquisition, pushing production to 1,383.8 MBoed from 1,090.4 a year earlier and revenue up about 18% to $6.92 billion. EOG is the standout performer of the four, up about 36% YTD, with COP up 28.9%.

The pattern is clean. Three years of M&A (Hess into Chevron, Marathon into ConocoPhillips, Encino into EOG) finished integrating just as Brent prices spiked. The synergies are real, the cost work is real, and the capital return engines kept running on schedule. Then a Middle East shock dropped onto the top line. That is how a sector ETF turns a single-digit broad market into a 31% mover.

The Soft Patch Inside the Run

The recent tape complicates the story a little. XLE is up only about 5% over the last month, and crude has been the reason. WTI has fallen from a May peak near $112 to $96, and natural gas has gone in the other direction entirely, with Henry Hub dropping from a January 23 spike of $30.72 per MMBtu to $3.07 on June 1. The EIA now expects Henry Hub to average $2.83 per MMBtu in Q2 2026, 11% below Q2 2025. So one of the two commodities driving the rally is rolling over. The other has slipped about 16% off its high but is still pricing a risk premium.

What You Watch From Here

The forward look hinges on two indicators a reader can actually track. The first is the Strait of Hormuz. The EIA’s May STEO assumes Brent averages around $106 per barrel in May and June, then steps down to $89 in Q4 2026 and $79 in 2027 as shut-in production gradually returns. If tanker traffic genuinely resumes, the risk premium that built XLE’s YTD comes out of the price, and the integrated names re-rate toward a $75 to $85 crude backdrop rather than $95 to $100. The second is OPEC spare capacity, which the EIA now models at 2.5 million barrels per day in 2027, down from a prior estimate of 3.8 million. Less cushion in the system means the next disruption hits harder, which is the structural reason this trade has a longer half-life than a typical war-premium spike.

Retail is starting to notice. Reddit sentiment on XLE has run 76 to 80 (bullish to very bullish) over the past several days, anchored by a single WSB post titled "You hear that, Mr. Anderson? That is the sound of inevitability." Mention volume is still low, which is usually how these trades work before they get crowded. The Exxon news cycle, with retail flagging "Exxon warns oil inventories near record lows, price spike ahead" as the top driver on June 1, suggests the inventory tightness narrative is still doing work.

The honest read is that XLE’s YTD is mostly a Hormuz trade wearing the costume of an earnings story. The earnings are genuine, the cost work is genuine, and the capital returns are durable. But the marginal dollar in the price came from a tanker chokepoint, and the EIA, the futures curve, and the integrated CEOs themselves are all guiding to a lower oil price in 2027. If the strait reopens cleanly, the broad market starts closing the gap. If it does not, or if the next disruption arrives before the first one resolves, the sector that has refused to quit in 2026 keeps doing exactly that. Watch Hormuz traffic, watch the Brent curve, and watch whether WTI holds the $90 line. That is the whole game from here.

The post Energy Refuses to Quit: XLE Up 29% YTD as Oil Stocks Wake Up appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

If you bought iShares U.S. Energy ETF (NYSEARCA:IYE) on the last trading day of 2025 at about $47 and you are still holding it this morning at about $61, you are sitting on an about 29% gain in a little over five months. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up about 8% over the same window. Energy, the sector everyone left for dead in 2024 and the back half of 2025, has been the trade of 2026 so far, and not by a little.

A $10,000 stake in IYE on December 31, 2025 is worth about $12,854 today. The same $10,000 in SPY is worth about $10,808. That gap, almost three to one, is the kind of spread you usually see in a thematic single-stock bet, not in two broad index products owned by retirement accounts. So the obvious question is what put it there, and the slightly less obvious question is whether any of it travels into the back half of the year.

The arithmetic, with a fair window

IYE finished 2025 around $47 and closed yesterday at $61. Over twelve months, the move is even larger, with the ETF up about 41% versus about 23% for SPY. The five-year picture, which captures the post-pandemic energy rerating and the soft patch that followed, has IYE up about 138%, modestly ahead of SPY at about 74% on a price basis.

One honest caveat. IYE pays a meaningful dividend, and the price-only number understates total return for any holder who reinvested distributions. The figures above are adjusted closes, which is the cleanest apples-to-apples available against SPY. The headline 27% in the title rounds down the 28.54% figure, which is fine for a magazine number, but anyone running this through a spreadsheet should use the longer figure.

What actually did the work

Three things, in roughly this order of importance. The first and biggest is crude.

WTI started 2026 near $57.26 a barrel and ran to a 52-week high of $114.58 on April 7. Brent did the same trip from $61.98 on January 2 to $138.21 on April 7. The trigger was the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which the EIA flagged in its May Short-Term Energy Outlook as the central reason it expected global oil inventories to fall by an average of 8.5 million b/d in 2Q26 and Brent to average around $106/b in May and June. When a chunk of the world’s seaborne crude cannot move, the marginal barrel reprices fast, and equities of companies that own the barrel reprice with it.

The second thing is what those companies did with the windfall. IYE is concentrated in a handful of large-cap U.S. producers. Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) reported Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.16 versus a $1.01 consensus, with underlying earnings rising to $8.77 billion from $7.58 billion a year earlier even as headline net income was distorted by a $3.88 billion derivative timing hit and a $706 million Middle East supply disruption loss. CEO Darren Woods told investors that “this quarter demonstrated that ExxonMobil is a fundamentally stronger company than it was just a few years ago, built to perform through disruption and across market cycles.” Exxon shares are up 25.4% year to date.

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) did even better against the bar. Q1 2026 adjusted EPS came in at $1.41 against a $0.97 consensus, a beat of about 46% and the company’s sixth straight, with worldwide production up 15% year over year on the Hess integration and a third consecutive quarter of U.S. output above 2 million barrels per day. CEO Mike Wirth framed it directly. “Despite heightened geopolitical volatility and related supply disruptions, Chevron delivered solid first quarter performance, underscoring the resilience of our portfolio and the value of disciplined execution.” Chevron is up about 25% YTD. ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) printed Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.89 versus $1.69 expected and is up about 27%.

The third piece is the part that gets undercovered. These companies started the year cheap and shareholder-friendly. Exxon is running a $20 billion buyback program in 2026 and extended its 43 consecutive years of dividend growth. Chevron returned $27.1 billion to shareholders in 2025 and raised its dividend for the 39th straight year. ConocoPhillips is targeting 45% of cash flow from operations back to shareholders. When the commodity spikes against that backdrop, you get a fund priced for a 2024 oil regime suddenly earning a 2026 oil regime’s cash flows, with the buyback already authorized to soak up the float.

The recent wobble

The last month has been quieter. IYE is up only about 3% over the past 30 days and down about 1% on the week, with WTI pulling back from its April peak to $95.96 by June 1. That is consistent with the EIA’s working assumption that the strait reopens in late May and shut-in production gradually returns. The energy trade has stopped getting easier.

What you actually need to watch from here

The mechanism that drove IYE’s 28.54% YTD is regime-dependent, not structural. The EIA’s own forecast has Brent falling to an average of $89/b in 4Q26 and $79/b in 2027 as Middle East barrels return. If they are right, the back half of 2026 looks materially harder for energy equities than the front half did, because the marginal price of crude that powered Q1 earnings will not be there to power Q3 and Q4.

Three things are worth tracking, and all are observable without a Bloomberg terminal. One, Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic, which the EIA publishes and the major shipping trackers update daily. A durable reopening is the single biggest bear case for IYE from here. Two, the Brent forward curve, which currently embeds the EIA’s glide path lower. If futures roll back into the $100s and stay there, the energy trade still has legs. If they drift toward $80, the easy money is behind you. Three, capital discipline at the majors. Exxon’s $27 to $29 billion 2026 capex guide and Chevron’s structural cost program are the reason these stocks compound through cycles rather than just spike through them. If either company breaks discipline and starts chasing the price with the drill bit, the long-term thesis weakens regardless of where crude prints.

The honest read is that IYE has done what it does. It owns a concentrated basket of oil-and-gas majors, and when crude triples off a December low because a strategic chokepoint closes, the basket triples-adjacent. The capital return story underneath those stocks is durable. The crude price that delivered a 28.54% YTD in five months is probably not. If you missed the run, the right question is whether you want sector exposure for the next geopolitical surprise (the case for owning some IYE through the cycle), or whether you are reaching for a tape that the world’s energy agencies are openly forecasting to cool. Pick one. The ETF will not pick for you.

The post Energy Stocks Are Back From the Dead: IYE Up 27% YTD appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Mid-year is when income-focused investors tend to take a hard look at their portfolios. With the second half of 2026 ahead, retirees and near-retirees are leaning into reliable dividend payers that can keep checks coming through any summer volatility. The three names below combine long dividend histories, defensive cash flows, and recent raises, exactly the profile that holds up when growth stocks wobble.

Verizon (NYSE: VZ)

Verizon (NYSE:VZ) is the high-yield anchor of this list. The stock trades at $46.95 with a trailing P/E of just 11 and a dividend yield around 6%, well above the broader market. The Q2 2026 payout was raised to $0.7075 per share, up from $0.69 the prior quarter, extending one of the longest uninterrupted dividend streaks in U.S. telecom.

The bull case is straightforward for retirees. Q1 2026 adjusted EPS came in at $1.28, up 8% YoY, and management raised full-year guidance to $4.95 to $4.99 in adjusted EPS with free cash flow of at least $21.5 billion, which more than covers the dividend. The closed Frontier Communications acquisition pushed fiber broadband connections up 42% YoY to roughly 10.8 million, and Verizon posted its first positive Q1 postpaid phone net adds since 2013. CEO Dan Schulman summed it up: “Our turnaround is not only progressing, it is gaining momentum.” Shares are up 16% year to date, yet still trade below the analyst target of $51.85.

Risk to watch: Total debt climbed to $172.5 billion after the Frontier deal, interest expense rose 19% YoY, and postpaid phone churn ticked up to 1%. Leverage will dictate how quickly future raises arrive.

Chevron (NYSE: CVX)

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is the dividend aristocrat of the group. The Q1 2026 dividend was raised to $1.78 per share quarterly, marking the 39th consecutive annual increase. That payment landed in shareholder accounts on June 10, 2026, the same day this article runs. Shares closed at $186.76 on June 9 and have risen 25% year to date, yet the forward P/E sits at a reasonable 14.

The retirement thesis here is fortress cash returns. Chevron posted Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.41 versus $0.97 estimates, its sixth consecutive quarterly EPS beat. Worldwide production rose 15% YoY to 3,858 MBOED, with the Permian Basin now at 1 million BOE/day following Hess integration. Chevron has returned cash on autopilot, posting 16 consecutive quarters returning more than $5 billion to shareholders, including $2.5 billion in Q1 buybacks. CEO Mike Wirth pointed to “the resilience of our portfolio and the value of disciplined execution.”

Risk to watch: Q1 net income fell 37% YoY, free cash flow turned negative at -$1.55 billion on working capital swings, and the net debt ratio crept to 18%. Oil-price sensitivity and Middle East exposure remain the obvious wildcards.

AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV)

AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) rounds out the trio as the healthcare leg. The stock closed at $225.42 on June 9 with a dividend yield near 3% and a forward P/E of 16. The dividend was raised to $1.73 per quarter in 2026, up from $1.64, continuing a march from just $0.40 per quarter in 2013.

The plain-language bull case: the post-Humira transition is going faster than skeptics expected. Q1 2026 revenue hit $15.00 billion, up 12% YoY, beating the $14.72 billion estimate. Skyrizi grew 31% YoY to $4.48 billion, Rinvoq added 23%, and neuroscience expanded 26%. Management raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $14.08 to $14.28. CEO Robert A. Michael said the company is “off to an excellent start in 2026, with first-quarter results exceeding our expectations.” Analysts carry an average target of $253.55.

Risk to watch: Humira sales fell 39% to $688 million as biosimilars bite, Imbruvica dropped 25%, and GAAP earnings remain weighed down by acquired IPR&D charges. Investors will want to see Skyrizi and Rinvoq continue carrying the load past 2028.

What to Watch Next

All three names share the traits retirement portfolios tend to prize: long dividend histories, recent raises, defensive end markets, and forward P/E ratios in the low-to-mid teens. Verizon offers the deepest yield, Chevron the longest aristocrat streak, and AbbVie the best growth profile of the group. Keep an eye on Q2 earnings reports later this summer, when each management team will update guidance heading into the second half.

The post 3 Dividend Stocks Built for Retirement to Buy in June appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

A Decade of Whiplash, Then a Mega-Deal

Ten years ago, Chevron (NYSE:CVX) was clawing out of the 2014 to 2016 oil crash, when Brent collapsed from $111.80 in June 2014 to $30.70 in January 2016. Then came COVID, which dragged Brent to $18.38 in April 2020, the Russia shock that pushed it to $132.72 in July 2022, and a 2025 lull below $70.

Through it all, CEO Mike Wirth kept Chevron pointed at scale. The company closed the Hess acquisition in July 2025 after winning Guyana arbitration, adding Stabroek, Bakken, and Gulf of America barrels. The Permian crossed 1 million BOE/day in Q2 2025, and worldwide output hit a record 3,858 MBOED in Q1 2026, up 15% year over year. Wirth also pushed into lithium in the Smackover, renewable diesel at Geismar, and a data center power partnership with Microsoft and Engine No. 1.

What $1,000 Actually Did

1-Year Return

• Initial Investment: $1,000
• Current Value: $1,406
• Total Return: 40.62%
• S&P 500 (same period): $1,234 (23.38%)

5-Year Return

• Initial Investment: $1,000
• Current Value: $2,156
• Total Return: 115.62%
• Annualized Return: 16.6%
• S&P 500 (same period): $1,753 (75.32%)

10-Year Return

• Initial Investment: $1,000
• Current Value: $2,834
• Total Return: 183.42%
• Annualized Return: 11.0%
• S&P 500 (same period): $3,519 (251.89%)

The price-only figures understate the experience. Chevron just declared its 39th consecutive annual dividend increase, lifting the quarterly payout to $1.78. Reinvested dividends, compounding from $1.07 quarterly in 2016, comfortably push the 10-year total past $3,500 and close the gap with the S&P. The 1-year picture is cleaner: CVX nearly doubled the index, driven by the Hess close and the Brent spike to $107.14 in May 2026 on Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

The Bull and Bear Case From Here

I’d put $1,000 into Chevron today if I want a dividend-anchored hedge against energy shocks and I trust management to hit the $3 to $4 billion structural cost target by end of 2026. With the stock at $189.24, a 3.38% yield, and a forward P/E near 14, the bull case is straightforward: Hess synergies, Permian scale, and tight global supply.

I’d avoid it if I think the EIA’s $95 Brent forecast for 2026 overshoots and prices revert toward the low-$60s the moment Hormuz traffic resumes. Higher net debt from Hess financing (17.9% vs 15.6%) leaves less cushion if crude breaks.

On balance, the dividend track record and Guyana optionality provide meaningful downside protection through the next price cycle.

The post How Chevron Turned $1,000 Into $3,500 With Reinvested Dividends appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Warren Buffett stepped down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B) on December 31, 2025, after six decades leading the conglomerate he transformed from a struggling textile mill into a $1 trillion empire. The “Oracle of Omaha” left his successor, Greg Abel, with a very concentrated portfolio: more than 65% of Berkshire’s $381 billion portfolio is invested in just six stocks. Abel, who has served as vice chair overseeing non-insurance operations, officially took over as chief executive on January 1, 2026. At 95 years old, Buffett isn’t fully retiring—he will remain chair of the board and plans to continue coming to the Omaha headquarters as much as before. However, he has stated he will be “going quiet” and leaving all decision-making to Abel.

It became quite obvious when the first-quarter numbers for Berkshire Hathaway were presented that it was more of the same for the investment giant. The huge chest of T-bills rose to $397 billion as more stock was sold. Specifically, the company sold $24.1 billion in equities in the first quarter of 2026, a huge jump from $4.7 billion in the first quarter of 2025, marking 14 straight quarters of net stock sales and pushing cash reserves to a staggering level. Once again, more Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and over 50 million shares of Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) hit the tape. What wasn’t being sold, at least so far, were some of the portfolio’s highest-yielding dividend stocks. Five of the highest-yielding could make up a very handsome passive-income portfolio while offering outstanding diversity, and being members of Berkshire Hathaway.

Why do we cover Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway stocks?

Few investors have the results and reputation that Buffett has garnered over the past 60 years. Though he has stepped away from the CEO chair, his impact and investment guidelines are likely to remain in place long after he is gone. While investing has evolved since Buffett took control of Berkshire Hathaway in 1965, buying good companies with products and services recognized worldwide, and paying dividends, will always remain a timeless approach.

Here are the five highest-yielding Berkshire Hathaway stocks.

Kraft Heinz

Kraft Heinz (NYSE: KHC) is North America’s third-largest food and beverage company and fifth-largest globally. Even in difficult times, everybody needs to eat, and this company consistently benefits while paying a substantial 7.12% dividend. The company was formed via the merger of H.J. Heinz and Kraft Foods, and it manufactures and markets food and beverage products worldwide through its eight consumer-driven product platforms:

• Taste Elevation
• Easy Ready Meals
• Hydration
• Meats
• Cheeses
• Substantial Snacking
• Desserts
• Coffee and other grocery products

The company has two reportable segments defined by geographic region: North America and International Developed Markets. Its other segments, West and East Emerging Markets (WEEM) and Asia Emerging Markets (AEM), are combined and reported as Emerging Markets.

Kraft Heinz brands include:

• Kraft
• Oscar Mayer
• Heinz
• Philadelphia
• Lunchables
• Velveeta
• Ore-Ida
• Capri Sun
• Maxwell House
• Kool-Aid
• Jell-O
• Golden Circle
• Wattie’s
• Plasmon
• ABC
• Master
• Quero
• Pudliszki

The company manufactures its products from a wide variety of raw materials and sells them through its sales organizations and independent brokers, agents, and distributors.

In February 2026, Kraft Heinz scrapped its planned corporate split. New CEO Steve Cahillane cited worsening conditions in the food industry, while emphasizing that the company’s challenges are “fixable and within our control.” Rather than breaking up, the company is intensifying its turnaround efforts. It is committing $600 million to marketing, sales, and research and development to drive the strategy. The decision follows a 3.5% decline in net sales in 2025, with further declines expected in 2026. By canceling the split, Kraft Heinz is now fully focused on stabilizing and rebuilding the business. Abel indicated Berkshire Hathaway is no longer planning to sell its stake in Kraft Heinz.

The swift reversal is being viewed as a reflection of Abel’s more hands-on management approach, as he reportedly expressed dissatisfaction, prompting the company to change direction quickly. For now, Berkshire appears committed to holding its position, although the shares could still be sold if conditions change. If they don’t, and the transition is successful, this could be a contrarian home run.

Sirius XM

The satellite radio operator was first added to the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio in 2016, and Buffett has continued to increase his stake over the past few years, a move that has proven to be shrewd. Sirius XM (NASDAQ: SIRI) is an audio entertainment company in North America that pays shareholders a dividend yield of 3.89%.

The company has a portfolio of audio businesses, including its flagship subscription entertainment service SiriusXM; the ad-supported and premium music streaming services of Pandora; an expansive podcast network; and a suite of business and advertising solutions.

The Sirius XM segment offers a variety of content, including music, sports, entertainment, comedy, talk, news, traffic, and other channels, as well as podcasts and infotainment services, in the United States for a subscription-based fee. Sirius XM’s packages include live, curated, and specific exclusive and on-demand programming.

The Pandora and Off-platform segment operates a music, comedy, and podcast streaming discovery platform that offers a personalized experience for each listener, wherever and whenever they want to listen, across mobile devices, vehicle speakers, and connected devices.

Chevron

Chevron (NYSE: CVX) is an American multinational energy company primarily focused on oil and gas, and it has been on fire as oil prices have skyrocketed. This integrated giant is a safer option for investors seeking exposure to the energy sector, and it pays a substantial 3.67% dividend, which was raised by 5% earlier this year. Chevron operates integrated energy and chemicals businesses worldwide. Berkshire Hathaway bought a well-timed 8 million additional shares in the fourth quarter, but sold a giant chunk of shares during the first quarter. It is one of the highest-quality companies in the energy sector, with a pristine balance sheet, and accounts for a sizable portion of Berkshire’s equity holdings. Chevron has a 38-year streak of dividend growth.

The company operates in two segments. The Upstream segment is involved in the following:

• Exploration, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas
• Processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas
• Transportation of crude oil through pipelines, and transportation, storage
• Marketing of natural gas, as well as operating a gas-to-liquids plant

The Downstream segment engages in:

• Refining crude oil into petroleum products
• Marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants
• Manufacturing and marketing renewable fuels
• Transporting crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car
• Manufacturing and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives

It also involves cash management, debt financing, insurance operations, real estate, and technology businesses.

Coca-Cola

Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) is an American multinational corporation founded in 1892. This company remains a top long-time holding of Warren Buffett, whose 400 million shares are 9.3% of the float and 9.9% of the portfolio. The stock pays a dependable 2.63% dividend.

Coca-Cola is the world’s largest beverage company, offering consumers more than 500 sparkling and still brands. Led by Coca-Cola, one of the world’s most valuable and recognizable brands, the company’s portfolio features 20 billion-dollar brands, including:

• Diet Coke
• Coca-Cola Light
• Coca-Cola Zero Sugar
• Caffeine-free Diet Coke
• Cherry Coke
• Fanta Orange
• Fanta Zero Orange
• Fanta Zero Sugar
• Fanta Apple
• Sprite
• Sprite Zero Sugar
• Simply Orange
• Simply Apple
• Simply Grapefruit
• Fresca
• Schweppes
• Dasani
• Fuze Tea
• Glacéau Smartwater
• Glacéau Vitaminwater
• Gold Peak
• Ice Dew
• Powerade
• Topo Chico
• Minute Maid

Globally, it is the top provider of sparkling beverages, ready-to-drink coffees, juices, and juice drinks. Through the world’s most extensive beverage distribution system, consumers in more than 200 countries enjoy the company’s beverages at a rate of over 1.9 billion servings per day. And remember that the company owns 19.5% of Monster Beverage (NASDAQ: MNST), which continues to deliver strong financial results.

Constellation Brands

Constellation is the largest beer importer in the US by sales and has the third-largest market share among major beer suppliers. If there is any company whose products remain in style, it’s this one, which achieves only 7% of its sales abroad. Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ), together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy.

The company provides beer primarily under these popular brands:

• Corona Extra
• Corona Premier
• Corona Familiar
• Corona Light
• Corona Refresca
• Corona Hard Seltzer
• Modelo Especial
• Modelo Negra
• Modelo Chelada
• Victoria
• Vicky Chamoy
• Pacifico

It also offers wine under:

• Cook’s California Champagne
• Kim Crawford
• Meiomi
• Mount Veeder
• Ruffino
• SIMI
• My Favorite Neighbor
• Robert Mondavi Winery
• Schrader
• The Prisoner Wine Company

Spirits are sold under the Casa Noble, Copper & Kings, High West, Mi CAMPO, and Nelson’s Green Brier brands.

The post Why a Passive Income Portfolio With 5 of Warren Buffett’s Highest Yielding Stocks Is Genius appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

A 63-year-old retiree with $400,000 parked in the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHD) likely picked it for the 100-stock screen and the reliable income stream. The top 10 positions now make up 41% of the fund, which means roughly $164,000 of that nest egg sits in ten names. For a fund managing $94 billion, SCHD’s concentration profile deserves a closer look before anyone treats it as a one-ticker solution.

The strategy and the income engine

SCHD tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index, screening for companies with at least 10 consecutive years of dividend increases and strong balance sheets. The return engine is simple: collect dividends from mature, cash-generative blue chips and let the index reconstitute once a year in March. Investors get a current yield of 3.27% at a 0.06% expense ratio, among the cheapest in the category.

The screen has a real edge for retirees, as names like Merck (NYSE:MRK) raised its quarterly payout from $0.77 in 2024 to $0.85 in early 2026, and Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY) nudged its quarterly dividend from $0.62 to $0.63 over the same window. Steady raises at the holding level translate into a stable income floor at the fund.

Heavier than the S&P 500 at the top

The top 10 names carry individual weights between around 3%: Qualcomm leads, followed by Texas Instruments, UnitedHealth, Chevron, Coca-Cola, ConocoPhilips, Verizon, and Amgen. The combined reading of the top stocks is heavier than the S&P 500’s 36% top-10 concentration, even though the headline index is famously crowded at the top with mega-cap tech.

On the other hand, sector tilts compound the issue. Energy sits near 16% after the March 2026 reconstitution trimmed it from 24%, with two oil majors in the top five. Healthcare runs roughly 18%, anchored by three drug makers. Single-stock risk inside SCHD runs higher than the 100-name headcount suggests.

Does it deliver?

Over the past year, SCHD returned 29%, edging out SPY’s 27% as the rotation into value lifted dividend names. Stretch the window, and the picture flips. SCHD’s five-year total return of 50% trails SPY’s 79% by nearly 30 percentage points. That gap is the price an SCHD owner paid for skipping the AI-led rally between 2023 and 2025. Over ten years, SCHD’s 233% still lags SPY’s 258%, though by a narrower margin.

The tradeoffs

1. Concentration drift between reconstitutions. March is the only month when weights reset. A buyer in October owns a different fund than one buying in April, with the top names having drifted meaningfully in the interim.
2. Sector cyclicality. Heavy energy and healthcare weights mean oil prices and drug-pricing politics move the fund disproportionately versus a broad index.
3. Growth opportunity cost. The dividend screen excludes most mega-cap tech, the dominant return source for nearly a decade of U.S. equity history.

Where SCHD fits, and where to pair it

SCHD serves as an income-anchored core holding for retirees seeking yield and quality screening at near-zero cost. Capping it at 30%-40% of the equity sleeve is sensible given the top-10 weight. The Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (NYSEARCA:VYM) holds roughly 620 names, with a top-10 concentration of near 24%, and has returned 69% over five years. The iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF (NYSEARCA:DGRO) features Apple, Microsoft, and Broadcom at the top, providing the tech overlap SCHD lacks. Pairing SCHD with either flattens single-stock risk without abandoning the income mandate that drew the 63-year-old to the fund in the first place.

The post SCHD’s $85 Billion Strategy Now Concentrates 41 Percent of Your Money in Just Ten Stocks appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is a stock worth owning for decades because it generates oceans of cash through every commodity cycle and shares that cash with owners on a schedule you can set your retirement clock to.

Chevron is built for long-term ownership. It is the kind of business a 60-something investor can buy, file away, and let work for the next 20 years while the dividend lands in the account every March, June, September, and December. Shares traded near $202 in late August 2026, with a market cap of roughly $399 billion and a forward earnings multiple of about 13x. None of that matters as much as what comes next.

Pillar 1: Durability Built on Scale

Chevron produced a record 3,858 MBOED in Q1 2026, up 15% year over year after closing the Hess deal, with U.S. output above 2 million barrels per day for the third straight quarter and the Permian Basin hitting its 1 million BOE per day target. By Q2 2026, worldwide production had climbed to 4.07 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, a 20% jump from the same period a year earlier, driven by legacy Hess assets and continued growth in the Permian and the Gulf of America. The asset base spans the Permian, the Gulf of America, Guyana’s Stabroek block, Kazakhstan’s TCO, Israel’s Leviathan and Tamar fields, and Australia’s Gorgon LNG. That geographic and operational spread is the moat.

When upstream drilling captures windfall profits during oil spikes, the refineries and chemical plants on the downstream side absorb cheaper feedstock when prices fall, smoothing cash flow across the cycle. Refining margins remained buoyant in Q2 2026, with crude unit utilization at U.S. refineries hitting a record 97%. WTI crude was trading near $85 per barrel in late August 2026, keeping the upstream productive without the operational strain that extreme price spikes bring. Beyond hydrocarbons, Chevron signed a 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft to supply 2.67 gigawatts of behind-the-meter power for a West Texas data center, signaling a broadening role in American energy infrastructure.

Pillar 2: Income You Can Plan a Retirement Around

The dividend is the entire reason to own this. Chevron has increased its dividend for 39 consecutive years, a period that includes the Great Recession, stock market crashes, oil price collapses, and a global pandemic. The most recent increase, a 4% bump announced in early 2026, lifted the quarterly check to $1.78 per share. The yield sits near 3.5%, more than double the S&P 500 average. Coverage is comfortable: 2025 operating cash flow of $33.9 billion covered the $12.75 billion dividend payout 2.66 times, with free cash flow covering it 1.30 times. Total capital returned to shareholders in 2025 reached $27.1 billion.

By Q2 2026, Chevron’s financial momentum had only strengthened. The quarter delivered $19.7 billion in operating cash flow and $15.4 billion in adjusted free cash flow, a dramatic improvement from the timing-driven negative free cash flow in Q1. Adjusted earnings came in at $6.06 per share, beating Wall Street’s estimate of $5.11 by a wide margin. The company also reduced total debt by a record $8.4 billion during the quarter, leaving its balance sheet in the strongest shape it has seen in years.

Pillar 3: Cycle Survival, Proven

Look at 2020. Operating cash flow collapsed to $10.6 billion, and Chevron still paid $9.7 billion in dividends. The company has navigated $30 oil in both 2016 and 2020 and kept raising its payout both times. Debt-to-equity sits below 0.25, beta is 0.49, and structural cost reductions have now reached $3 billion in annual run-rate savings since 2024, already hitting the low end of the $3 billion to $4 billion target the company set for the end of 2026. In addition, Chevron achieved $1.5 billion in Hess-related synergies ahead of schedule, exceeding the original integration target by 50%.

Where It Will Underperform

In a sustained sub-$50 oil environment or a sharp acceleration in the energy transition, Chevron will lag growth stocks and pure-play renewables. That does not change the thesis. Low-cost barrels from the Permian and Guyana, the refining hedge that kicks in when crude falls, and a balance sheet built for downturns mean the dividend keeps coming. As CEO Mike Wirth has stated, the priority remains industry-leading free cash flow growth and superior shareholder returns across commodity cycles.

For patient owners, the setup rewards dividend reinvestment and a long time horizon over quarterly trading.

Editor’s note: This article has been updated to reflect Chevron’s Q2 2026 results, including record worldwide production of 4.07 million BOE per day, Q2 adjusted earnings of $6.06 per share, $19.7 billion in operating cash flow, $8.4 billion in debt reduction, and the completion of a 20-year power agreement with Microsoft. Share price, market cap, forward P/E, WTI crude price, cost reduction progress, and beta have all been refreshed to late-August 2026 figures.

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