NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the south-central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. Supercells capable of very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes are most likely from central Kansas and southeast Nebraska into Iowa and northwest Missouri.

For additional details, see the current Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO).

Extremely critical fire weather conditions are forecast today. See details...

SPC Products Overview

Hazard	Mon (05/18)	Tue (05/19)	Wed (05/20)	Thu (05/21)	Fri (05/22)	Sat (05/23)	Sun (05/24)	Mon (05/25)
Severe	Moderate	Slight	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Extreme	Elevated	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1994-2024)

Any Severe Probabilities: 18 May

Sig Severe Probabilities: 18 May

Tornado Probabilities: 18 May

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 18 May

Severe Hail Probabilities: 18 May

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 18 May

Significant Wind Probabilities: 18 May

Significant Hail Probabilities: 18 May

More climatology data here.

2026 Tornado Watch Summary

Page last modified: May 17 2026 12:27 UTC

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2026 Severe Thunderstorm Watch Summary

Page last modified: May 17 2026 12:27 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2020)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 18 May

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 18 May

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 18 May

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 18 May

More climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Lyons, A. D., R. L. Thompson, B. T. Smith, H. G. Weinman, and A. R. Dean, 2026: Convective Mode Classification and Distribution of Contiguous U.S. Tornado Events from 2003 to 2023. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [19600 PDF]
Harrison, D.R., A. McGovern, C.D. Karstens, A. Bostrom, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2025: Leveraging Coproduction to Bridge Research and Operations in Operational Meteorology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [6601K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., A. McGovern, C.D. Karstens, A. Bostrom, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2025: An Assessment of How Domain Experts Evaluate Machine Learning in Operational Meteorology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [16916K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2025: On a Modified Definition of a Derecho. Part II: An Updated Spatial Climatology of Derechos across the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [3250K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2025: On a Modified Definition of a Derecho. Part I: Construction of the Definition and Quantitative Criteria for Identifying Future Derechos over the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [5585K PDF]
Moore, A., 2024: Investigating the Near-Surface Wind Fields of Downbursts Using a Series of High-Resolution Idealized Simulations. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [6768K PDF]
Edwards, R., and R.L. Thompson, 2024: Right-Moving Supercell Tornadogenesis during Interaction with a Left-Moving Supercell's Rear-Flank Outflow. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [15153K PDF] (supplemental radar loop, standard enhancements [27170K MP4]), (supplemental radar loop, colorblind enhancements [33950K MP4])
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part II: Parent Storm Structure, Environmental Conditions, and History of Numerical Forecasts. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [10595K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part I: Identification, Climatology, and Societal Impacts. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [6899K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., 2023: A Comparison of Right-Moving Supercell and Quasi-Linear Convective System Tornadoes in the Contiguous United States 2003-21. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4539K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

May 16, 2026	Tornado: 6	Wind: 209	Hail: 163

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