Typhoon WPAC Typhoon Saola

JMA
<Analysis at 09 UTC, 24 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N11°35' (11.6°)
E140°40' (140.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)
<Forecast for 21 UTC, 24 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°55' (13.9°)
E138°35' (138.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
<Forecast for 09 UTC, 25 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°35' (16.6°)
E136°00' (136.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 26 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°30' (20.5°)
E133°50' (133.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
<Forecast for 06 UTC, 27 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N24°50' (24.8°)
E132°30' (132.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 310 km (170 NM)






GFS run Typhoon just off shore along the JP coastline this storm really boms as a extra tropical cyclone in the bearing sea.

If the storm manages to stay outta Lan up- welling wake, no reason i can see this wont easily exceed the current intensity advisories.
The upper-level tutt cell will likely help this storm along with a outflow point source as the moves away from it..

FXXT03 EGRR 240405

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM 27W ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 143.6E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.10.2017 12.0N 143.6E WEAK
12UTC 24.10.2017 14.7N 140.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.10.2017 15.9N 137.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.10.2017 17.2N 136.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.10.2017 18.7N 135.4E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.10.2017 21.0N 135.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.10.2017 23.6N 134.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.10.2017 26.9N 134.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.10.2017 30.3N 136.4E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.10.2017 33.3N 140.9E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2017 35.8N 145.3E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2017 37.7N 151.1E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.10.2017 41.4N 156.8E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

Curved band is where this is @ needs more work. Pink cyan is intensifying storms.


Robs take on it.



FXXT03 EGRR 250406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.10.2017

TROPICAL STORM SAOLA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 135.5E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.10.2017 14.7N 135.5E MODERATE
12UTC 25.10.2017 16.4N 134.6E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.10.2017 18.0N 132.6E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.10.2017 19.9N 131.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.10.2017 21.7N 130.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.10.2017 23.0N 129.6E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.10.2017 26.1N 128.4E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2017 29.2N 130.3E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.10.2017 32.5N 133.3E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2017 34.9N 140.4E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.10.2017 46.3N 148.2E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 30.10.2017 50.7N 151.8E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 31.10.2017 53.8N 153.6E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

As expected UKMET is ramping this storm up also into a major system.

HRWF 110kts 10min looks another super typhoon will roam the wpac.

Short update.




https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-225.96,17.38,1439
Diffluence @ 200mb with a equatorial outflow has helped this TS to slowly
get better organised. The poleward outflow channel is impeded by easterly
shear from a tutt cell.This should improve as mentioned before as the
system gains latitude.



https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/700hPa/orthographic=-219.11,19.11,800
700mb
Mid-level vort is looking quite good still tightening and tilting to he west as it should.
Not elongated by shear.


https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre...hographic=-218.32,4.33,800/loc=130.433,17.076
.looking ok @500MB with only slight a elongation atm.
If you do check the link also check the the equatorial monsoon crossover flow
into the shem on the 850/500mb .
https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre...ographic=-213.74,-8.11,641/loc=130.433,17.076


Surface circulation is getting tighter.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre...hographic=-230.81,7.48,554/loc=131.885,18.428

Bottom line doing better than top sat-pic appearance atm, with a closed circulation
from surface to the uppers. Simplified into laymans.

View attachment 30752 View attachment 30752 Saola will likely obtain typhoon intensity within the next 24hrs.
What could happen then is the cyclone transitioning to annular
structure. The cool sst and current easterly shear suit such
a morph.




Lan took a lot of heat out.

Tropical Cyclone Information Release Log

1. THIS IS THE LATEST BULLETIN ON TROPICAL STORM SAOLA (27W). AS OF 28/0700L, OKINAWA IS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITION OF READINESS 1-E. AT 28/0300L, TROPICAL STORM SAOLA WAS LOCATED 24.0N DEGREES NORTH AND 128.1E EAST, WHICH IS 96NM NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHEAST OF KADENA. IT HAD WINDS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS NEAR ITS CENTER AND WAS MOVING TO THE NW AT 8 KNOTS.


2. IF TROPICAL STORM SAOLA CONTINUES TO MOVE AS FORECAST, DAMAGING WINDS OF 50 KNOTS OR GREATER (SUSTAINED) ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR FROM OCCURRED TO 28/2200L. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON OKINAWA ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED AT 65 KNOTS WITH 80 KNOT GUSTS AT 28/1200L.

3. REMARKS: SEA CONDITION DANGER IS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE MAX PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IS 3-5 INCHES.

4. STAY ALERT FOR FUTURE CHANGES IN TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITIONS. THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AT 28/1200L OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT

A ragged eye is a auto T-4



WDPN33 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 33//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 27W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 61 NM SOUTH OF KADENA
AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A LARGE AND RAGGED BANDING EYE THAT IS NOT QUITE
CLOSED. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS, MOSTLY FEEDING IN FROM THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND ON A RADAR COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM OKINAWA WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0
AND REFLECTS THE UPGRADED STATUS OF TY 27W. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THERE IS ALSO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE CAUSED BY THE LEADING EDGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM CHINA. IN THE SAME AREA, A ROBUST
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS EVIDENT ON THE MSI LOOP.
HOWEVER, VERY STRONG EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY
INITIAL EXPOSURE INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES, PLUS WARM SSTS AT 28
CELSIUS, ARE OFFSETTING THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS AND CAUSING NEAR-TERM
INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY SAOLA WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS
IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. IT WILL PASS OVER
EASTERN OKINAWA THEN SKIRT THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINLAND JAPAN. THE
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL PREVAIL AND INTENSIFY 27W TO A PEAK OF
75 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, THE STRONG WINDS WILL TRANSLATE TO
STRONG VWS. ADDITIONALLY, COOL DRY AIR ADVECTION AND COOLING SSTS,
CONCURRENT WITH EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36, WILL
STEADILY ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A
STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH A RAPIDLY EXPANDING WIND FIELD IN THE
PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTHEAST OF HOKKAIDO. THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, AS TYPICAL
WITH RECURVE SCENARIOS, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
LATERAL SPEED AMONG THE TRACK MEMBERS. THE TRACK SPEEDS DIFFER EVEN
GREATER AT THE ETT PHASE. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 24, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE
AFTERWARD.//

FKPQ30 RJTD 280600
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20171028/0600Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: SAOLA
NR: 23
PSN: N2705 E12825
MOV: N 15KT
C: 975HPA
MAX WIND: 60KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 28/1200Z N2820 E12900
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 60KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 28/1800Z N2940 E13010
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 60KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 29/0000Z N3100 E13205
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 55KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 29/0600Z N3225 E13500
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 55KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20171028/1200Z =

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20171028/k10011201911000.html?utm_int=error_contents_news-main_001

Apparently there's flood risks.

WPac season can go into early December.
http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/climatology.html

FXXT01 ADRM 291500
IDY26500

Bureau of Meteorology, Darwin RSMC

ACCESS_TC TC tracking for model run: 20171029 1200 UTC

Cyc Name Date Time Lat Long C.Pres Max Wind(kts)

SAOLA 20171029 1200 35.6 141.1 987.0 58.7
SAOLA 20171029 1800 35.6 141.1 996.7 41.1
SAOLA 20171030 0000 40.3 147.2 987.4 39.0
SAOLA 20171030 0600 47.5 151.0 935.0 66.8


Models bombing the extratropical cyclone for russia.Polytropic
induced rapid deepening








Just in the frame