USA Tornado Season 2025

M

Mega

A Local
Ski Pass
Jul 3, 2019
6,377
29,693
563
Let's kick this badboy off.

For today:

day1probotlk_1630_torn.gif

And tomorrow:

day2probotlk_1730_torn.gif

"Water-vapor imagery late this morning indicates a powerful and
negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough over the southern
High Plains. An intense mid-level jet (with winds of 100-115+ kt at
500 mb) will continue to round the base of the trough, and quickly
eject northeastward across OK and eastern KS this afternoon. This
mid-level jet will move over parts of the mid MS Valley and Midwest
this evening and tonight in tandem with the northeastward-advancing
shortwave trough. Strong ascent aloft associated with both of these
features will overspread portions of the central CONUS as a deep
surface cyclone develops northeastward from the central High Plains
into the Upper Midwest this afternoon through tonight. In the low
levels, a dryline will surge eastward across the southern/central
Plains through the day, eventually arcing from the low southeastward
into the Ozarks. A large area of significant severe potential
remains evident across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley into the
Midwest and Mid-South.""

Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
  • Like
Reactions: Flowin, Vinny, SnowBound and 2 others
Advertisement
Thought I better start putting my targets and thoughts in here again as the season kicks off. Silverton yesterday was a nicely verified target, fairly easy when HRRR paints a consistent discrete supercell. Seems most were on it!

Similar but slightly weaker setup today, dryline and strong heating with good moisture late. Need to look for lingering OFB pushing SW for later on as cells move east. Discrete modes again, perhaps a few more cells but of lesser intensity. Start out around Plainview to Tulia TX and take east from there, similar areas to yest for the most part, perhaps a bit more south.

TS:cool:
 
  • Like
  • Love
Reactions: Claude Cat, DDPete and Mega
Looks like another nice tornado yesterday, a little to the SW of Plainview though a short drive to grab it, but boy did she anchor and pull south with light mid level winds. Similar today and these setups you really want to attack from the south.

Big lingering OFB today, things prob fire up even further west over the border into NM....Lovington etc before far western TX Panhandle. May shift south before seeing how it latches onto the boundary, Seminole TX area should give room.

Monday looks LEGIT over Iowa.

TS :cool:
 
  • Like
Reactions: Claude Cat and Mega
Well she really formed further west yesterday with a bit of a drive to re locate to the Roswell storm, but would have been the play early. CAMS battled a bit on the location of activity.

Today, re location for the mod risk so playing western NE area, breaks drive up and most likely area to get a tornado target was around Lisco NE and nice storm developing now to the NE of there.

TS :cool:
 
  • Like
Reactions: Claude Cat
Well what a supercell that turned out to be. A cyclic monster, with multiple large wedge tornadoes and even twins at one stage with a cluster forming within the original storm. Probably be the supercell of the season.

Now today is effing tricky to pick, there's very long area to choose from with multiple focus areas. Big warm sector across IA and MO and into MN. Really solid LLJ but that seems to shoot east rather fast too as the low deepens. Mid-level jet comes in hard from SW to force things up but actual storm coverage south of the low centre area is gunna be isolated. Main feature seems to be a line south from the low of broken supercells, semi-discrete but could go linear. Best kinematic environment here from southern MN into northern IA.

Further south through central to southern IA and into SE NE/NW MO we see another small kink in the 500hPa flow may trigger another cluster of supercells, less LLJ down here but sharp dryline and good instability.

Then way down in central/west OK another little sfc feature and kink in dryline may see a good supercell and tornado chance there. SPC upgraded that little area to 10%. Plus a chance of the odd strong cell down the dryline in between.

STP is very solid right down the dryline but the mid to upper forcing and enhanced low level convergence is really good north of about central IA.

Might hedge my bets a little be ready to shoot in any direction, including south but Pocahontas IA for now....prob totally change on CAMS by time I wake lol. I should note that activity will likely start well west of there, possibly over the border into SD or far SW MN.

TS :cool:
 
  • Like
Reactions: Claude Cat
Been a bit lazy last few days but I really like tomorrow (our time anyways) for a decent day of strong supercells in SW TX/SE NM.

Nice upper low west with good moisture return very late into a developing sfc low right in the SE NM corner. Backed winds and a natural upslope into that area often produce absolutely mammoth supercells. A boundary will retreat SW and that is my focus. Thinking around Andrews TX, could be multiple cells to choose and go from there, maybe west at first then pick them off as they come. Likely big nocturnal action as well.

TS :cool:
 
  • Like
Reactions: Claude Cat and Mega
Very quick target for tomorrow. Tricky chase and a long way away....but Columbus WI to see what gets going, the cap will be stronger into IL with a later break but shear a tad better further north.

TS :cool:
 
  • Like
Reactions: Mega and Claude Cat
Didn't go too badly, big supercell over the top but not a lot of tornado action, nice one further NW along the warm from closer to MN.

Now today is a big day....and a large area of storms that will be seriously moving. I will be looking for where the lingering OFB from earlier activity will lie as that will be a focus for enhanced tornadic activity. Big nasty supercells today, high end setup, certainly could be a violent wedge or two. Thinking around Mayfield KY yes....hopefully not a repeat there. Storms probably firing earlier over MO and IL as well...and even east along the lingering boundary. Just gotta find it!


Day 3 is my pick though, can see that going to moderate risk by day 1 through OK and KS, a classic alley plains setup. Day 4 very similar just a tad less sharp and east.

TS :cool:
 
  • Like
Reactions: DDPete, Claude Cat, Mega and 1 other person
A very classic setup in store today across the alley and no surprise with the moderate risk which I expected a few days ago. Sharp dryline, ejecting mid-level shortwave with negative tilt and extreme instability with just the right amount of capping plus a warm frontal like outflow boundary feature that was the same as the Silverton/Matador TX setup but on a bigger scale draped NW-SE across KS to OK. Numerous supercells will erupt and picking one will be tricky, any could produce but I like the enhancement of shear, moisture and instability near that boundary. Somewhere in the Kinsley/Dodge City/Greensburg area KS might be a good start.

Good luck to all, could be some serious tornadoes, quite photogenic and long tracked.

Tomorrow looks big too, perhaps a little more moisture and greater chance of wedges than todays but also potentially a touch messier. Today should be as clean as it gets.

TS :cool:
 
  • Like
Reactions: Mega and DDPete
View of a tornado that formed during this guy's Fedex route in Bennett, Colorado; Use left/right arrows to see its evolution.



Likely same tornado:



Terrifying view of last night's tornado near Greenburg KS; luckily it missed the town by a whisker:

GrR8rw0XoAEUZoT.jpg


More severe thunderstorms with possible strong tornados are expected later today.
 
Last edited:
  • Wow
  • Like
Reactions: Nimbus, RustyJ, DDPete and 1 other person
Boy yesterday sure delivered. Absolute tornado machines right up the dryline, so many to choose from. Initially the S KS area under the mod risk was under cold stratus and drizzle so likely would have shot south to seek warmer air south of the warm front into OK. Hopefully would have put me closer to the tornadoes there initially before shooting back north. Would have missed the Kinsley one but likely to have latched back onto the Greensburg monster cyclic supercell that put down many wedges. So, so lucky no major damage there but Plevna was not so lucky sadly.

Now today, geez it is TOUGH to pick a target, hardest target of the season for mine. A very broad area, no extreme focus and also the location means, OKC gets in the way a bit plus the forested hills of eastern to SE OK and W AR.

You could feasibly choose 5-6 targets today. The first one is NE KS to SE NE where the weak low lingers with the warm frontal zone waffling SE off it and backed winds. However it will be further away from the dynamic forcing of the mid level impulses further south and further from the premium LLJ.

The second target is over far eastern OK playing the first round of storms that should kick off from S OK but catching them as they root into better shear. Battling the forest though.

The third area is S OK near the red river, balancing between both modes, the first supercells with supreme CAPE and near LLJ nose plus mid level impulse but no low level boundary enhancement. You also will be east enough of the dryline.

The 4th area is the dryline itself a little further west but as SPC mention, this may be an area where storm splits kill each other and the LLJ is less exciting. The dryline is also more washed out than yesterday but CAPE is still extreme.

The 5th area is over the border into N TX to catch the tail enders a bit better and have less interference

A sleeper option is renegades ahead over western AR and MO....but will take a brave chaser.

The mad but feasible option is play the OKC corridor, Chickasha into southern OKC, Moore, Norman etc. We all know how that play goes and we don't want it. That is on the table with this setup though.

I think I'll stick with the S OK one, can go all directions and hopefully positon best with respect to balance of upper dynamical triggers, large CAPE, LLJ later and chance of 2 rounds.

Ardmore OK or somewhere near and take it from there.

TS :cool:
 
  • Like
Reactions: RustyJ, Claude Cat, Mega and 1 other person
Thunderstruck' said:
Boy yesterday sure delivered. Absolute tornado machines right up the dryline, so many to choose from. Initially the S KS area under the mod risk was under cold stratus and drizzle so likely would have shot south to seek warmer air south of the warm front into OK. Hopefully would have put me closer to the tornadoes there initially before shooting back north. Would have missed the Kinsley one but likely to have latched back onto the Greensburg monster cyclic supercell that put down many wedges. So, so lucky no major damage there but Plevna was not so lucky sadly.

Now today, geez it is TOUGH to pick a target, hardest target of the season for mine. A very broad area, no extreme focus and also the location means, OKC gets in the way a bit plus the forested hills of eastern to SE OK and W AR.

You could feasibly choose 5-6 targets today. The first one is NE KS to SE NE where the weak low lingers with the warm frontal zone waffling SE off it and backed winds. However it will be further away from the dynamic forcing of the mid level impulses further south and further from the premium LLJ.

The second target is over far eastern OK playing the first round of storms that should kick off from S OK but catching them as they root into better shear. Battling the forest though.

The third area is S OK near the red river, balancing between both modes, the first supercells with supreme CAPE and near LLJ nose plus mid level impulse but no low level boundary enhancement. You also will be east enough of the dryline.

The 4th area is the dryline itself a little further west but as SPC mention, this may be an area where storm splits kill each other and the LLJ is less exciting. The dryline is also more washed out than yesterday but CAPE is still extreme.

The 5th area is over the border into N TX to catch the tail enders a bit better and have less interference

A sleeper option is renegades ahead over western AR and MO....but will take a brave chaser.

The mad but feasible option is play the OKC corridor, Chickasha into southern OKC, Moore, Norman etc. We all know how that play goes and we don't want it. That is on the table with this setup though.

I think I'll stick with the S OK one, can go all directions and hopefully positon best with respect to balance of upper dynamical triggers, large CAPE, LLJ later and chance of 2 rounds.

Ardmore OK or somewhere near and take it from there.

TS :cool:
Click to expand...
One of the chasers I watched yesterday started further north under all that drizzly stuff in KS (somewhere NE of Dodge City), figured nothing would happen up there so booked it south to try and catch that supercell coming up from the border OK/KS border. By the time he made it it'd already produced multiple tornados but it split and then both eventually ended up dying. Then stuff started firing further north where he originally was.....typical! Other chasers were right to start further south in the clearer air though.

Yeah, very sad to see the damage in Plevna a few hours after that wedge just missed Greensburg. That thing was nuts.
 
  • Wow
Reactions: DDPete
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

M
USA Tornado Season 2026
Replies
15
Views
1,031
Thunderstruck'
T
T
USA Tornado Season 2023
Replies
12
Views
2,011
Claude Cat
Claude Cat
Orebound
Tornado Tornado Alley USA 2020
Replies
80
Views
13,488
Thunderstruck'
T
Top Bottom
Back