Time for another thread to make for some targets!
Had Macomb in NW IL the other day for the monster high risk, would have been a reasonably easy 2hr drive to intercept the long-tracker in E IA, what a day that was.
Today looks just as strong in Iowa, perhaps a tiny bit more instability than the other day but less powerful forcing aloft and a weaker surface low. They still could go to high risk on the final outlook but probably hold at mod.
Classic warm frontal zone, very sharp over IA/IL with triple point further NW. Big CAPE to 3500J/Kg across the warm frontal zone and associated warm sector to south. EHI and STP spaces near 7-8 which is massive. Bit of a tight squeeze time wise between storm maturity and crossing the warm front to elevated territory, but the very steep lapse rates aloft and large CAPE (capping also) will lead to violent and rapidly evolving convection. Strong to violent tornadoes likely in any mature supercell and they will be discrete early on. Expecting a wedge or two.
Much later on might see another lone supercell evolve in warm sector over MO and then nocturnally much later into AR with mega LLJ and critical angles for strong tornadoes in the dark, could be a scary one down there overnight.
Target is Clarence IA good options in all directions here including river crossings into IL.
Had Macomb in NW IL the other day for the monster high risk, would have been a reasonably easy 2hr drive to intercept the long-tracker in E IA, what a day that was.
Today looks just as strong in Iowa, perhaps a tiny bit more instability than the other day but less powerful forcing aloft and a weaker surface low. They still could go to high risk on the final outlook but probably hold at mod.
Classic warm frontal zone, very sharp over IA/IL with triple point further NW. Big CAPE to 3500J/Kg across the warm frontal zone and associated warm sector to south. EHI and STP spaces near 7-8 which is massive. Bit of a tight squeeze time wise between storm maturity and crossing the warm front to elevated territory, but the very steep lapse rates aloft and large CAPE (capping also) will lead to violent and rapidly evolving convection. Strong to violent tornadoes likely in any mature supercell and they will be discrete early on. Expecting a wedge or two.
Much later on might see another lone supercell evolve in warm sector over MO and then nocturnally much later into AR with mega LLJ and critical angles for strong tornadoes in the dark, could be a scary one down there overnight.
Target is Clarence IA good options in all directions here including river crossings into IL.
