Technical 2024/25 SH Cyclone Season (outside Australia)

Retireduser

Retireduser

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Jun 16, 2024
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WTIO30 FMEE 130034
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
wtio30.fmee..txt


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1731458999184.png
ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/
121800Z-131800ZNOV2024//

GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD MADAGASCAR AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
MEDIUM.
...........................................................................................................................................................................................

Hurricane model thinks this swio system will peak as a very robust tight cyclone over the next 4 days.

hafs_a_uv10m_114.png



Screenshot 2024-11-13 120632.png
 
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WTIO20 FMEE 150015

SECURITE

STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/11/2024

AT 0000 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 011/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



STORM WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 15/11/2024 AT 0000 UTC.



PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BHEKI) 985 HPA






02S_TRUECOLOR.png
 
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WTXS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BHEKI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 11.8S 75.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT


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Screenshot 2024-11-19 12.18.24.png


Going to interesting for me watching this swio basin this season. In the current warmer times
ie global warming the swio was over the average with the number of cyclones forming in a neutral enso year 2019-2020.
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EPS sniffing over the ten days is thinking possibly another forming system.
download (2).png
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.
 
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Has been tagged by the Bom.


2024-11-22 07_38_34-Tropical cyclone forecast and 1 more page - Personal - Microsoft​ Edge.png
Tropical Low 01U
Indian Ocean Tropical Low 01U may become a tropical cyclone
  • A tropical low (01U) lies southwest of Sumatra in the Indian Ocean.
  • It is forecast to slowly develop, with the risk of becoming a tropical cyclone increasing to moderate from Sunday.
  • The low may move into the far northwest corner of the Australian Area of Responsibility by late Friday or the weekend, but then move west out of the region next week.
  • There is a low risk of a direct impact to Cocos (Keeling) Islands, but the low is likely to increase showers and storm activity.
 
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The EC BOT thinks it will form mid next week.
download (11).png





GFS is on the same page.



gfs_mslp_sig_ausnz_120 (2).png

Its also sniffin a complex low with humid tropical air feeding into it down in the GAB.
 
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JTWC thinkin a lame duck . Tho models are see'in a system on repeated runs.
Not even a mention on their grafic above.
eusa_wall.gif


Their best track how ever show them tracking twin invests on each side of the EQ.


99B INVEST 241122 1800 4.5N 91.3E IO 15 1006

96S INVEST 241122 1200 10.4S 98.0E SHEM 20 1006

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Screenshot 2024-11-23 09.32.27.png





index (2).png


Both models see mirror systems on each side off the equator.A west moving ER rossbywave seeded them.

Red cell= N1

Screenshot 2024-11-23 10.26.34.png
Screenshot 2024-11-23 10.26.48.png




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Screenshot 2024-11-23 10.38.54.png


Screenshot 2024-11-23 12.37.15.png




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Last edit today.
FQAU21 AMMC 221915

40:2:1:31:11:01:00

IDY10240

SECURITE

HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR NORTHERN METAREA 8/10/11

NORTHERN AREA: EQUATOR TO 12S, 90E TO 142E AND SOUTHWARD TO COAST,

125E TO 142E

ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY

FOR 24 HOURS COMMENCING 2300 UTC 22 NOVEMBER 2024

PART 1 WARNINGS

NIL.

PART 2 SITUATION AT 1800 UTC

TROUGH 08S090E TO TROPICAL LOW (01U) 1005HPA NEAR 09S097E TO 12S101E.


..............................................................................................................................................................
FQIN01 DEMS 221800

GLOBAL MARITIME 222230 IST

DATE/TIME OF ISSUE: 22-11-2024/1700 UTC

GMDSS BULLETIN II 221800

ISSUED BY: INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, NEW DELHI


SYNOPTIC WEATHER SYSTEM AT 1200 UTC:

AN UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER EAST EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN AND ADJOINING

SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA EXTENDING UPTO MID TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS PERSISTS. UNDER ITS

INFLUENCE A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL

AROUND 23RD NOVEMBER. THEREAFTER, IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-

NORTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY INTO A DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BAY

OF BENGAL DURING SUBSEQUENT 2 DAYS.
 
Last edited:
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Invest 96s has the satpic appearance of a intensifying Tropical Storm not a invest.

98051256.gif


Screenshot 2024-11-27 08.17.42.png


Also a area now in the spac. This season maybe quite intersting for those who follow that
region and also the coral sea. With the IOD forecast is shifting to -neg and a warm nino4 region
there maybe the odd very intense system in those area's (Spac/CS) this season.
 
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Most interesting thing for now is mjo.
Screenshot 2024-11-27 10.08.28.png




ewp.gif

Forecast is for it move across the whole Pacific again. The past mjo also did with no standing
wave halting its progres @ the date line. Westerlies killed off the trades across all enso regions
during the last mjo cycle. This time a kelvinwave i noted a week ago that was ahead of this current cckw it moved over the area where down welling kw's get generated. Won't be @ all suprised if over the next months warm upwelling will be happening again on the shores in the epac.


Will just leave here @ that I'm finding some posts just annoying in monsoon/climate driver thread.

Cheers.
 
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Indeed, 92S has a well-defined centre of circulation asper ascat sample.
WMBas199.png





GFS currently thinking the system may reach a brief cat2.
gfs (2).png


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WTIO30 FMEE 090622

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/4/20242025

1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4



2.A POSITION 2024/12/09 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.7 S / 64.2 E

(ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND

SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT: WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA



IN TERMS OF TRACK, THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS

GUIDANCES ON A ZONAL TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, FORCING IT TO MOVE MAINLY WESTWARDS,

TOWARDS THE MAIN ISLAND. IN TERMS OF DISPLACEMENT SPEED, THERE IS A

LITTLE MORE DISPERSION WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS, WHICH IS

SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN IFS AND MOST DETERMINIST MODELS. THE TRACK

FORECASTED BY RSMC IS A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS,

MAINLY FOLLOWING THE TIMING OF IFS.



IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DESPITE GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND CORRECT

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY STILL CONSTRAINED BY A

SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHEAR SHOULD EASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,

ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY. IT SHOULD REACH THE

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE OVERNIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING, THEN THE

STRONG TROPICAL STORM STAGE ON WEDNESDAY.



IMPACTS ON AGALEGA OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

- VERY HEAVY SEAS LATE WEDNESDAY AND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.=



 
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04S_TRUECOLOR.png
2024-12-11 10_17_04-UW-CIMSS _TCTrak_ Tropical Cyclone Tracker for Storm 04S.png


Best track
04S CHIDO 241210 1800 10.6S 59.6E SHEM 60 988


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Hurricane model thinks this system will peak as a cat4/or/5.
/
hafs_a_uv10m_39.png



hafs_a_ir_39.png
 
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Will be a good measure of the hurricane model with this system.

2024-12-13 12_05_26-Windy_ Chido - Hurricane tracker and 2 more pages - Profile 1 - Microsoft...png

EC collapses the major system before any landfall.


2024-12-13 12_14_07-CIMSS Tropical Cyclones and 4 more pages - Profile 1 - Microsoft Edge.png
JTWC best track also weakens out the TC.


2024-12-13 12_11_16-Indian Ocean - Mid-Level Wind Shear - Latest Available - Large Scale and 4...png

Current shear forecast asper cimss is low ahead.



2024-12-13 12_12_25-Indian Ocean - 24hr Shear Tendency - Latest Available - Large Scale and 4 ...png

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18z hurricane model thinking.
hafs_a_uv10m_60.png



hafs_a_ir_60.png


Its thinking cat3 or cat4 landfall atm.

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Current best track.
04S CHIDO 241212 1200 10.7S 53.2E SHEM 135 931
 
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Re: above Indeed may have been the strongest ever system for many years to hit there.
The unnamed 1934 was a strong system

hurricane_-12.761325, 45.350093.png
 
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All that's needed after the earthquake.
Got to say I'm not seeing it on the major model runs today.

www.abc.net.au

Cyclone warning for Vanuatu as rescuers dig for survivors of earthquake

The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department has issued a warning of a low-to-medium likelihood of a cyclone developing, as the nation grapples with the aftermath of a deadly earthquake.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
 
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RE: above maybe they were looking @ eps ens.
download (11).png
As you know a TD is a cyclone just a tad weaker than 35kts and not named. Tho can be
huge threats from the rain.
 
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Mixed outlooks on this one.

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.8S 171.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 174.2E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI. ANIMATED HIMAWARI-9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A COMPACT BUT WELL-FORMED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ) AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING.
THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF DAYLIGHT IN THE VISIBLE CHANNEL REVEALS
PULSATING OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST, WITH FORMATIVE BANDING STRUCTURES TRYING TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED TO BE 30 KTS BASED ON
THE LIMITED DATA AVAILABLE. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VWS (05-10KT), GOOD DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
MOIST MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND WARM SST (29-30C). ECMWF ENSEMBLE
(ECENS) HAS APPROXIMATELY 30% OF MEMBERS STILL DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, HOWEVER THE AVAILABLE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING THE CURRENT ANALYSIS WELL, WHICH IS OFTEN TYPICAL OF SYSTEMS
WITHIN THE SPCZ. THAT SAID, IT IS POSSIBLE INVEST 91P MAY HAVE ALREADY
REACHED ITS PEAK AND HAS ONLY A LIMITED WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD, DUE TO DRIER AIR THAT
SHOULD BEGIN TO ENCROACH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 282130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
 
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Screenshot 2024-12-29 21.12.37.png

06P SIX 241229 0600 17.3S 176.9E SHEM 50 997
Best track.


WDPS31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR
001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 17.3S 176.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 98 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (SIX) HAS TRANSFORMED AT AN INCREDIBLE
PACE FROM A 30 KNOT ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITH THE SPCZ,
TO A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A MICROWAVE AND RADAR EYE
FEATURE. POST-ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE 290000Z INTENSITY WAS
VERY LIKELY WELL ABOVE 35 KNOTS BUT A LACK OF DATA, THE VERY SMALL
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE OVERALL WEAK APPEARANCE IN VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY PRECLUDED ASSESSING IT AT A HIGHER
INTENSITY AT THAT TIME. A 290158Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS CHANGED ALL
THAT IN AN INSTANT, WHEN IT REVEALED A CLEAR, VERTICALLY ALIGNED
MICROWAVE EYE IN BOTH THE 89GHZ AND MOST STRIKINGLY IN THE COLOR
ENHANCED 36GHZ IMAGE. A QUICK GANDER AT THE RADAR DATA OUT OF NADI,
CONFIRMED THE SYMMETRIC AND ALIGNED NATURE OF THE VORTEX, WHICH
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. BASED ON THE RADAR DATA, THE
SYSTEM LIKELY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 0400Z-0500Z. BY 290600Z
THE CENTER WAS PASSING VERY CLOSE TO WAYASEWA AND KUATA ISLAND,
MOVING EASTWARD AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS. THE RADAR DEPICTION HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY RAGGED SINCE THE 0500Z PEAK. THE MSI AND ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY HAVE NEVER SHOWN A CLEAR EYE, THOUGH THERE
WAS BRIEFLY A WARM SPOT IN THE BD-ENHANCED EIR. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RADAR EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, AS
THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM IS PRECLUDING ACCURATE DVORAK-BASED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE NOT YET
AVAILABLE, MEANING THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ALMOST
ENTIRELY ON THE APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE, WITH WARM SSTS, LOW VWS AND
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
 
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Now rated a high chance.

1736323572756.png


THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.1S 77.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 76.0E, APPROXIMATELY 479 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
071753Z GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL A 071628Z METOP-C AMSU-B 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION CONSISTENTLY BUILDING OVER THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF 94S WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND WARM (27-28C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY, 94S ALSO HAS WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT TO ASSIST IN DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE
TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
 
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ORECAST DISCUSSION: 11S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36,
A SECOND RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND DRIVE
IT MORE WESTWARD. AROUND TAU 96, 11S WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THAT RIDGE AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY,
11S IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO
AROUND 40 KTS. AFTER TAU 12, INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
THROUGH TAU 48. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS THE TILTED NATURE OF
THE VORTEX AND PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL INHIBIT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME.
AROUND TAU 72, MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE NATURE OF THE
VORTEX ALIGNMENT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE SYSTEM CAN ALIGN, AN
INTENSIFICATION TREND COULD ENSUE. IF IT REMAINS TILTED IT COULD
SIMPLY FALL APART. AS FOR NOW, THE JTWC FORECAST CALLS FOR MODERATE
INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO THE FACT THAT EASTERLY SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR.
 
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And another brewing.

1738707199304.png

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.0S 160.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 160.9E, APPROXIMATELY 409 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A
KNES DVORAK INTENSITY OF 2.0 REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS WIND
DATA
(30KTS) AS WELL AS A 4MB REDUCTION IN PRESSURE OVER THE LAST 5 HOURS
FURTHER SUPPORTING THE DEEP CENTRALIZED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS IN A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
STRONG,
RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
92P WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TRACK IN A
GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO
BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF
B (WTPS21 PGTW 041130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
 
1 min sshs



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10/ min

TIO20 FMEE 060018
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 06/02/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 83.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 300 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER5

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 145 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/06 AT 12 UTC:
19.3 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/07 AT 00 UTC:
19.5 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

 
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Topendraptor-v1 said:
1 min sshs



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10/ min

TIO20 FMEE 060018
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2025
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 06/02/2025 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (VINCE) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 83.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 300 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER5

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 145 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/02/06 AT 12 UTC:
19.3 S / 81.3 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2025/02/07 AT 00 UTC:
19.5 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

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It's lucky there's nothing out there because Vince has got pretty strong now.
 
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