Cyclone 2020 NH Hurricane/Typhoon season

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Bello Weather

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Jul 12, 2019
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Going to kick this thread off as we have quite a lot happening already. First off, and likely to have a BIG impact for a lot of people, is a cyclone likely to develop in the Bay of Bengal over the coming week and head north:

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I think we're all aware of the possible outcomes for this one - that ocean is pretty hot right now so a lot of energy, and then a lot of people and flat land as it approaches land. Definitely something to watch over coming days, and likely not something they'll want at all as they also fight Covid outbreaks :(

We've also got a very early season storm likely to form off the Florida coast. This one is likely to remain out to sea, but could be the first of many storms in that area this season, with an above average outlook for the Atlantic. the NHC has already noticed this one:

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"An area of low pressure is expected to form just north of the Bahamas late this week or early this weekend. This system has a high chance of becoming a subtropical depression or storm this weekend while it moves northeastward over the western Atlantic".

And finally, in the Pacific we have Vongfong strengthing quickly as it approaches the Philippines:

Vongfong.png

Looks like a busy season coming up, and will be interesting to see how the US copes on top of an ongoing Covid outbreak...
 
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The latest forecast has the cyclone in the Bay of Bengal moving north and then swinging north east...close to Kolkata and Bangladesh, before dissapating as it hits the Himalayas. Going to be some signficant impacts and can only imagine the rain totals as it hits the wall that is the Himalayas. Here's the latest forecast:

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....and here is the currently forecast rainfall from this system:

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Massive impacts likely as Amphan moves north. here's the latest from the JTWC, predicting gusts to 300kph:

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...and here's the latest satellite imagery courtesy of cyclonicwx.com - pretty much top of the scale and a big size too...has gone through an EWC - will it strengthen again before landfall? Surge is going to be a massive issue. Mix COVID 19 into the mix and it's a nightmare in that part of the world right now:

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This wind forecast from EC - shows the eye of the storm passing through Kolkata:

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...and finally - this rainfall forecast from EC - you can see the track of the cyclone and then the massive dump as it hits the Himlayas. Going to be some longer term flooding issues as a result I'd be thinking - that whole area drains in the Brahmaputra River which then heads down through Bangladesh...impacts likely for some time. Sure they see big totals in the monsoon but that is a BIG dump very early in the season:

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Not a cyclone but still a magical event to watch...the Monsoon is soon to arrive in India. The latest GFS shows it reaching the far SW and moving north over the following days. A massive weather event that impacts a massive number of people - great to watch it appear like clockwork at the end of May each year:

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Looking really busy up north again over the coming ten days. Suspect this activity will impact on the IOD development. Wonder if it's a sign of a busier season for us as we head into 2021 with a potential La Nina? Before then these forecast systems could have more big impacts across the Indian subcontinent.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_india_fh48-240.gif
 
Making landfall now just to the south of Mumbai. As we go (in NSW at least) a week since the last locally transmitted Covid 19 infection, Mumbai is an epicentre for the disease right now...so this is the last thing they need.

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...and coming up soon ->

Ongoing risk of another system hitting the east coast of India - would be their third of the season:

ecmwf_z500_mslp_india_fh144-240.gif

And a likely cyclone laden with a massive amount of tropical moisture hitting the Gulf coast in the USA. Crazy busy start to the season:

 
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All the hallmarks of a textbook CAG
................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Be no suprise if this current system landfalls on usa terra firma as a large very wet cyclonic gyre with multi vorts rotating in a grye.




http://www.pppapin.com/research_cag.php
 
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Hello Wonderful Friends:
Well, Tropical Depression (was Tropical Storm) Cristobal drifted Northwards near my area (the "eye" of the system passed close to Little Rock, Arkansas) yesterday (Monday). My area was on the extreme western edge of the precipitation (much more/heavier precipitation on the eastern side of this system); hence, I only copped .15"/3.8mm in light rain. My area doesn't see the effects from Tropical systems all that often. This was the first rain from a Tropical system in my area since I copped 1.40"/35.5mm from the remnants of Tropical Depression Imelda on Sept. 20, 2019.

Take Care--Kind Wishes--Stay Safe--GOD Bless~~~Wet Snow
 
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It's been a quiet season so far but models are pretty locked onto Typhoon Bavi hitting the southern coast of South Korea later in the week.

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SO Laura is looking pretty Nasty for Southern Tx, currently NHC has it scraping to the east of Houston, and Josh has positioned himself at Port Arthur.

Meanwhile Typhoon Bavi is looking nasty heading towards Korea.
 
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Most recent dropsonde and aircraft recon found sustained winds of 90+kt in eastern eyewall... that is high end cat 3 territory!! If confirmed that is pretty decent intensification.

recon_NOAA2-2013A-LAURA_dropsonde23_20200826-0257.png
 
They're talking 15-25 foot storm surges in Lake Charles. Where a large petrochemical facilities exist. An environmental disaster awaits.​

Meanwhile, they're telling people who stayed there to have tools at the ready to cut your way out of your roof above your attic.... Dang!
 
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Looks lopsided on the radar but really it is just attenuation. There does seem to be a bit of a slot in the SSE quad of the eyewall though.
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"We're just about in the eye now."
"We're just about in the eye now."
"We're just about in the eye now."
"We're just about in the eye now."
"We're just about in the eye now."
"We're just about in the eye now."
"We're just about in the eye now."
"We're just about in the eye now."
"We're just about in the eye now."
"We're just about in the eye now."
"We're just about in the eye now."
"We're just about in the eye now."
 
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Ok weather folks, question re Laura. Is it possible that the rain depression in its wake would affect the mid Pacific coast of Mexico? I'm seeing pics and video from my friends in Melaque of flooding rivers, washed out bridges, boats in the streets and mud left behind in buildings.

Distance would be 1800-2000 km straight line SW from the LA coast landfall and there are some serious mountains in between. Is this possible or is it a Pacific depression that just happened along at the same time?
 
sly_karma said:
Ok weather folks, question re Laura. Is it possible that the rain depression in its wake would affect the mid Pacific coast of Mexico? I'm seeing pics and video from my friends in Melaque of flooding rivers, washed out bridges, boats in the streets and mud left behind in buildings.

Distance would be 1800-2000 km straight line SW from the LA coast landfall and there are some serious mountains in between. Is this possible or is it a Pacific depression that just happened along at the same time?
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Pretty sure that was a separate system.
 
Yeah I saw posts from friends later referring to it as Tropical Storm Hernan. Town took a bad hit from flooding and mud flows, 13000 homes unusable in the area, which is probably three quarters of the housing stock.
 
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Flowin said:
I am surprised this thread has been quiet with this happening at the moment.
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They are all a bit ... meh ... Teddy is interesting for its strength so far North into Canada and is causing phenomenal seas and strong tropical storm force winds at landfall (albeit as a post tropical system!), and Beta has been a huge rain event for Southern Texas (a mate in Houston has recorded 10" at his place in just over 24 hrs!)
 
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trappers said:
They are all a bit ... meh ... Teddy is interesting for its strength so far North into Canada and is causing phenomenal seas and strong tropical storm force winds at landfall (albeit as a post tropical system!), and Beta has been a huge rain event for Southern Texas (a mate in Houston has recorded 10" at his place in just over 24 hrs!)
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Hurricanes hit the Maritimes reasonably often, mostly in September and October when surface temps in the north Atlantic are at their highest of the year and capable of sustaining tropical storms further north than normally possible. Nova Scotia and Newfoundland are most vulnerable and experience direct or partial hits three or four times each decade. In the years before 1950, lack of warning systems and high numbers of people working in offshore fisheries made hurricanes the leading cause of weather related deaths.
 
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To round out the 2020 NH TC season IOTA appears to pack a compact intense system at landfall.
Hurricane IOTA
As of 18:00 UTC Nov 16, 2020:

Location: 13.5°N 82.3°W
Maximum Winds: 140 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 918 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1008 mb
Radius of Circulation: 210 nm
Radius of Maximum wind: 10 nm
IOTA31L.2020111612.Pmin.png
hwrf_mslp_wind_31L_5.png
goes16_ir_31L_202011162045.gif
 
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