Moderate chance of early tropical cyclone forming in Coral Sea off Queensland, Bureau of Meteorology says
Tropical cyclone season typically runs from November to April. (Supplied: Suzanne Newman, file image)
The Bureau of Meteorology is closely monitoring a storm system that could develop into an unprecedented October cyclone in the Coral Sea next week.
A tropical low is expected to form along a trough east of the Solomon Islands on Thursday or Friday.
Bureau community information officer Daniel Hayes said early modelling showed the system could move into the north-east Coral Sea and brew into a tropical cyclone off the Queensland coast.
"At this stage, we're talking about a low chance – a 5 to 15 per cent chance – of it forming over the weekend," Mr Hayes said.
"That increases to a moderate chance of 25 per cent on Tuesday.
"We are looking at potentially having some increased convective activity in that area, so showers and storms at least – it just remains to be seen whether the system can organise itself."
Cyclone not expected near coast
Australia's tropical cyclone season typically begins in November and runs until April.
"In our 50 years of records, we don't really have a precedent of another cyclone that's formed or moved into the Coral Sea during October,"Mr Hayes said.
"So it is definitely early in that context."
Modelling suggests there is a moderate chance of a tropical cyclone developing next week. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)
If the cyclone does develop, Mr Hayes said it was expected to remain far from the Queensland coast.
"The modelling so far is indicating that while it may come into the Coral Sea area, it's likely to turn away to the east well before it gets anywhere near the coast, tracking somewhere around the New Caledonia area or towards New Zealand," he said.
With the country preparing for a hot and dry El Niño summer, the number of cyclones is forecast to decrease.
"This is a good reminder that even though we are potentially in a period where we might expect to see a reduced number of systems, it's always possible you can still get them," Mr Hayes said.
If the cyclone does form in Australian waters, Mr Hayes said it would be named Tropical Cyclone Jasper.