NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

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A Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is forecast for Mon (05/18)

Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes are most likely from central Kansas into southeast Nebraska.

For additional details, see the latest Day 2 Convective Outlook.

Extremely critical fire weather conditions are forecast today. See details...

Extremely critical fire weather conditions are forecast on Mon (05/18). See details...

SPC Products Overview

Hazard	Sun (05/17)	Mon (05/18)	Tue (05/19)	Wed (05/20)	Thu (05/21)	Fri (05/22)	Sat (05/23)	Sun (05/24)
Severe	Enhanced	Moderate	Slight	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Extreme	Extreme	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1994-2024)

Any Severe Probabilities: 18 May

Sig Severe Probabilities: 18 May

Tornado Probabilities: 18 May

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 18 May

Severe Hail Probabilities: 18 May

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 18 May

Significant Wind Probabilities: 18 May

Significant Hail Probabilities: 18 May

More climatology data here.

2026 Tornado Watch Summary

Page last modified: May 17 2026 12:27 UTC

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2026 Severe Thunderstorm Watch Summary

Page last modified: May 17 2026 12:27 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2020)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 18 May

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 18 May

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 18 May

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 18 May

More climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Lyons, A. D., R. L. Thompson, B. T. Smith, H. G. Weinman, and A. R. Dean, 2026: Convective Mode Classification and Distribution of Contiguous U.S. Tornado Events from 2003 to 2023. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [19600 PDF]
Harrison, D.R., A. McGovern, C.D. Karstens, A. Bostrom, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2025: Leveraging Coproduction to Bridge Research and Operations in Operational Meteorology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [6601K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., A. McGovern, C.D. Karstens, A. Bostrom, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2025: An Assessment of How Domain Experts Evaluate Machine Learning in Operational Meteorology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [16916K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2025: On a Modified Definition of a Derecho. Part II: An Updated Spatial Climatology of Derechos across the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [3250K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2025: On a Modified Definition of a Derecho. Part I: Construction of the Definition and Quantitative Criteria for Identifying Future Derechos over the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [5585K PDF]
Moore, A., 2024: Investigating the Near-Surface Wind Fields of Downbursts Using a Series of High-Resolution Idealized Simulations. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [6768K PDF]
Edwards, R., and R.L. Thompson, 2024: Right-Moving Supercell Tornadogenesis during Interaction with a Left-Moving Supercell's Rear-Flank Outflow. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [15153K PDF] (supplemental radar loop, standard enhancements [27170K MP4]), (supplemental radar loop, colorblind enhancements [33950K MP4])
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part II: Parent Storm Structure, Environmental Conditions, and History of Numerical Forecasts. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [10595K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2023: A Historical Overview on the Science of Derechos. Part I: Identification, Climatology, and Societal Impacts. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [6899K PDF]
Thompson, R.L., 2023: A Comparison of Right-Moving Supercell and Quasi-Linear Convective System Tornadoes in the Contiguous United States 2003-21. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4539K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

May 16, 2026	Tornado: 6	Wind: 209	Hail: 163

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